Batteries 2012 Avicenne Energy Batteries Market Towards 20251

The worldwide battery market 2011-2025
Christophe PILLOT Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT c.pillot@avicenne.com +33(0)1 4778 4600
Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 2011 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery material market Forecasts & conclusions
SPONSORS
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
80 SPEAKERS
24th october Keynotes
AVICENNE HP TOYOTA SB LIMOTIVE BAR ILAN UNIV.
FORD PSA RENAULT DAIMLER TOSHIBA
25th october Car Makers

SAE CELGARD MIJOBIL A&D
26th october Safety Battery

NATUREO FINANCES GS YUASA SAFT LECLANCHE
Raw Mat.
UMICORE PRAYON BASF CLARIANT TODA KOGYO QINGDAO
Manufacturing
MEGTEC POLYTYPE EIRICH SOVEMA
Safety
ETTEPLAN INERIS RECHARGE EUROBAT
Battery
BASF-OVONIC POWERGENIX IKERLAN ILZRO-ALABC
GTAI J. PETERSEN
R&D
TOYOTA FRAUNHOFER INST. US DOE R. BRODD IFP CEA SHMUEL DE-LEON SWEL
Portable
TI INTEL ST ERICSSON CALL2RECYCLE
Raw Mat.
DOW DUPONT DREAM WEAVER
Manufacturing
KROENERT PEC SCHENK
Automotive
LG CHEM
Energy Storage
A123 ALTAIRNANO EDF IMTECH
Battery Managmt.
CHE EV INTERTEK RWTH AACHEN HEL LITHIUM BALANCE
Raw Mat.
FMC HITACHI ARKEMA JSR ENTEGRIS
Future
ROLANDBERGER ELEMENT ENERGY MANZ TUBINGEN BUHLER
AVICENNE PROFILE
Information for Growth - Powering your companys market strategy with in-depth research Creation: 1992 Headquarter: Paris
Liaison Office: Japan, USA AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot
4 consultants in Paris
The Rechargeable Battery market
Customized survey
21st Edition
METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH

TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
Top management contacts network > 17 000 contacts In Depth analysis Of applications
Cross Check Analysis
Battery Makers
Conferences & Exhibitions

Substitution technologies: SuperCap, Fuel cells
Battery Users, OEM
Safety
Raw materials suppliers
Environment & recycling
MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE

A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATOFINA - ARKEMA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCH LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OMG INC PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2011
1,2
EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

6
IIT 2007
IIT (March 2011) Deutsche Bank
Million HEV powered by LIB
0,8
Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)
0,6
IIT 2008
0,4 IIT 2009 0,2 IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007-2011 REALITY 2008 2009 2010 2011
Roland Berger
IIT (March 2010) AVICENNE AAB
0 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
0 2010 2015 2020
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
7
OUTLINE
THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2011/2012 LIB VALUE CHAIN
LIB RAW MATERIAL MARKET 2020 & 2025 FORECASTS
CONCLUSIONS
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

Million Units / year
Million Units/Year
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 2000 Li-ion 1500 NiMH 1000 500 0 2000 2011
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

300 250 200 Li-ion NiMH 65 M Tablets 211 M Portable PCs
150
100 50 0 2000
2011
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year 70000 Tons of cathode / Year 60000 50000 $/Wh 40000 3 2,5 2 1,5 1
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
30000
20000
10000
0 2000 2011
0,5
0 2000 2011
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
35 000 300 000
30 000 250 000 450 000 400 000
350 000
The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025 MWh 25 000 20 000 15 000 BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE 100 000 10 000 5 000 0
200 000
Others (Flow battery, NAS, )

Li-ion
Others (Flow battery, 300 000 NAS, )

MWh
MWh
Li-ion 250 000

200 000
150 000
150 000
NiMH NiCD Lead Acid
NiMH NiCD
100 000 50 000
50 000
0 1990 2000 1990 2000 2010 2010 0 1990 2000 2010
10
LI-ION IN 2011
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
>4 200 M cells 28 000 MWh 9 700 M$
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011
30 000 The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025 25 000 20 000 M Wh 15 000 10 000 5 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Cellular Phones
CAGR 2006/2011 +21% per year in Volume +13% per year in value
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011
12 000 10 000 8 000 M Wh 6 000 4 000 2 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Tablets Digital Camera Toys E-bikes Power Tools Video Games Auto Others Camcorders MP3 Household devices
Portable PCs
Others
11
LI-ION IN 2011
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
> 4 200M cells 28 000 MWh 9 700 M$
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011
12 000 The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025 10 000 8 000 M$ M$ 6 000 4 000 2 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Cellular Phones
CAGR 2006/2011 +21% per year in Volume +13% per year in value
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Automotives Camcorders Games Tablets Digital camera E-Bikes Power tools MP3 Others
Portable PCs
Others
12
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN

CATHODE SUPPLIERS 63 OOO T in 2011 Revenues: 1,8 B$ CAGR 06/11: +13% ANODE SUPPLIERS 32 200 T Revenues: 0,55 B$ CAGR 06/11: 9% ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS 21 000 T Revenues: 0,4 B$ CAGR 06/11: 17%
CELL MANUFACTURE RS
PACK MANUFACTURE RS Revenues: 11 B$ Gross margin: <10%
Revenues: 9 B$ Gross margin: <10%
SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS 440 M m Revenues: 0,8 B$ CAGR 06/11: 15%
BINDER SUPPLIERS 4 800 Tons Revenues: 0,15 B$ CAGR 06/11: 12% ANCILLARY Revenues: 0,5 B$
13
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS BY CHEMISTRY

Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2000-2011
70 000
Cathode active materials for LIB, % of volume, 2011

LFP 8% LMO 11%
60 000
50 000
40 000 Tons
LFP LMO NCA NMC LCO
NCA 6%
30 000
LiCoO2 43%
20 000
10 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NMC 32%
14
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2020

Cathode active materials 20002020 - Tons
300000 250000 LMO 11%
Cathode active materials in 2011: 63 000 Tons

LFP 8% LCO 43% NMC 32%
200000
Tons
LFP
LMO NCA NMC LCO
NCA 6%
150000 100000
50000
0
Cathode active materials in 2020: 250 000 Tons

LFP 14% LMO 19% NMC 40% LCO 20%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: 2010-2020: +11% per year in volume HEV 3,7 M HEV/year in 2020 35% LIB P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020 100% LIB EV 1M EV/year in 2020 100% LIB
NCA 7%
15
ANODE FOR LIB IN 2011

Natural graphite is more & more used
Others A123 BAK ATL The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025 Maxell Lishen BYD LGC SDI BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE PANASONIC SONY
Artificial Graphite 30% MCMB 8% Amorphous 2% Si or Sn Type 1%
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2011)
SANYO
0% ARTIFICIAL Amorphous
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
MCMB METAL
NATURAL
Natural Graphite 59%
Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads
16
LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2011

LIB separator market, M$, CAGR 2001/2011: +19%
900 800 700 The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025 M$
Others 5% UBE 7%
LIB Separator supplier, market share in 2011
600
500 400
CELGARD 26%
ASAHI 25%
300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,
17
SK 12%
TORAYTONEN SUMITOMO 21% ENTEK 1% 3%
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 21 200 TONS IN 2011

LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 2001/2011: +19%
25000
LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in 2011
20000
Others 18%
Ube 11%
Tons
15000
Zhangjiagang GuotaiHuarong 19% PANAX-ETEC 21% Mitsubishi 24%
10000
5000
In-House 4% Tomiyama 3%
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Cellular Power tools
Portable PC Auto
Tablets Others
18
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launch by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago). So, it take between 10 & 20 years to commercialized a new material in the battery industry.
19
BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 2011-2025

Applications covered
Portable PCs, net-book Cellular Phones, Smartphones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Energy Storage Others
Parameters analysis
Main segment trends Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time) Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor 2011 -2020 Forecasts OEM strategies and positions Main drivers & limiters
20
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICE FORECASTS 2011-2020

Cellular phone demand (M Units) CAGR 2010-2020: +6%
3 000
2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 OTHERS INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA
Cellular Phone market Drivers
Emergent market Renewal ratio increase Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells demand 2010-2020

Polymer penetration: 16% -> 33%

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Pouch Prismatic
LIB cells for cellular phone trends

Pouch cell ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
21
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES FORECASTS 2011-2020

Portable PC demand (M Units) 2010-2020 CAGR: +10%
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Portable PC market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging market Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2)) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel
Emerging Mature
Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy
LIB cell demand 2010-2020

LIB cells for portable PC trends

Thinner cells Pouch cells penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 23% in 2020 > 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
Polymer penetration: 7% -> 23%

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Pouch Prismatic Cylindrical
22
2025 LIB FORECASTS EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by application (except Auto)
140 000 Others E-bikes 120 000 Household devices Toys 10000
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (Except Auto)

12000
80 000 MWh
Video Games
Digital Camera
M cells/year
100 000
8000
MP3
6000
60 000
Camcorders Cordless Phones
4000
40 000
2000 Power Tools
20 000
Tablets Portable PCs
0 2000 Li-ion Cyl 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Cellular Phones
Li-ion Pr IIT - March 2012 (1)
Laminates
(1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference Slide p 10

23
LONG TERM HEV FORECAST FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS
Million 9 8 7
AVICENNE (Feb 2012)
AVICENNE (Oct 2009)

AABC (2011) IIT (March 2011) 3,7
6
5 4
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)
3 2 1 0 0,9 1,7
Roland Berger (Mini August 2011)
Nomura (March 2009) 2011 2015 2020
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2012

24
LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

Li-ion penetration in electronic devices & HEV
100% 90%
HEV powered by LIB forecasts from 2008 to 2011

1,2
Li-ion penetration in electronic devices & HEV
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% HEV Avicenne 2 (to=2010) HEV IIT (to=2009)
Portable PCs (to=1994)
IIT 2007
Million HEV powered by LIB
Cellular Phones (to=1994)
0,8
0,6 IIT 2008 0,4 IIT 2009
30%
20% 10%
Power Tools (to=2004) HEV Avicenne (to=2010)
0,2
IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007 REALITY 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario (2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario (3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar, (4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
25
LIB BUSINESS RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

More & more incidents & accidents All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability
RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT
Operating profit/Revenue 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
Sanyo MBI BYD SGS Sony NEC
Maxell
LGC SDI Average
2010
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
26
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh in 2015
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
LiTec GmbH Panasonic EV SK Energy Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin (Electrodes) AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy SAFT SAFT US BAK Lishen Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Chem - Compact Rusnano-Thunder Sky Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy SB Limotive GS YUASA Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI) Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ener1 Sanyo A123 JCI LG Chem BYD Sony NISSAN Motor US PANASONIC
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
500
M$
1000
1500
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk 1,5 GWh production capacity

27
LIB BATTERY COST

Costs analysis
Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, ) Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc cost structure :
Battery price in 2011 $/kWh

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 LIB 18650 cell LIB EV LIB pack LIB HEV LIB pack Cell for EV cell for HEV
CAPEX, labor cost, R&D Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)
Raw material needs / mAh Electrode process Yield Assembly Process Yield Cell manufacturing cost Module manufacturing cost Pack assembly cost
28
LI-ION BATTERY COST 2011-2020

LIB cell average cost (EV design ; NMC cathode)
400
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV

700
350
300 250 $ / kWh 200 150 100 50 0 2011
Margin Overheads
600 Pack Cost 500 Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Electrolyte 200 Separator 100 Anode Pack Pack Cell Cell Cell Pack
Sales & Adm

R&D Direct labor Depreciation Others Separator Electrolyte Anode cost Cathode cost
$ / kWh
Energy, utilities
400
300
2015
2020
2011*
2015*
2020*
Cathode
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

29
EV FORECASTS 2011-2020
EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020
6
EV impact on the LIB & raw material market is HUGE

EV 25000 10000 1000
IIT (March 2011) Deutsche Bank
Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)
P-HEV HEV
Roland Berger IIT (March 2010) AVICENNE AAB
E-bikes Power Tools Portable PC Mobile Phone 4 1
400
45 50
0 2010 2015 2020 IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 Nov 2009 Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011
10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 Average Wh per device
30
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 2011-2020

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 2020
40 000 35 000 30 000 The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025 M Wh 25 000 M Wh 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 2005 2010 2015 LIB for HEV LIB for EV 2020
NiCd
Total battery demand (MWh) 2000 2025

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000
60000
40000
20000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
NiMH except Auto LIB for HEV LIB except Auto LIB for P-HEV NiMH for HEV LIB for EV
NiMH for HEV LIB for P-HEV

31
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES
STANDARD CAR 88.5% MICRO HYBRIDS 10% MILD HEV 0.5% FULL HEV 1%
EV P-HEV
2010
Advanced Lead acid (+ EDLC)
NiMH NiMH batteries Li-ion batteries
Standard Lead acid Batteries
2015
2020
STANDARD CAR 54%
MICRO HYBRID 40%
FULL HEV 4%
EV P-HEV 2%
AFTER
ULTRA BATTERY
Li-ion
Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells
32
TAKEAWAYS
Battery Market 2010-2020 CAGR = +8%
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH LIB begin really to compete in 2012 P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 5 B$ market in 2015 & 9 B$ in 2020 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve 40% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2020 in volume & value
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2020

70 700000 000 60 600000 000 50 500000 000 40 400000 000 30 300000 000 20 200000 000
M$ MWh
10 100000 000
0
2000 2010 2010 2015 2020 2020 19902005 2000

NiCd NiCd NiMH NiMH LIB LIB Others
Lead Acid Lead Acid
33
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY c.pillot@avicenne.com Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00 Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
34

Batteries 2012 Avicenne Energy Batteries Market Towards 20251

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The worldwide battery market 2011-2025

Christophe PILLOT Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT c.pillot@avicenne.com +33(0)1 4778 4600

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

25th october Car Makers

26th october Safety Battery

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Liaison Office: Japan, USA AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

The Rechargeable Battery market

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH

Cross Check Analysis

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

Conferences & Exhibitions

Substitution technologies: SuperCap, Fuel cells

Battery Users, OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

IIT (March 2011) Deutsche Bank

Million HEV powered by LIB

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

IIT (March 2010) AVICENNE AAB

0 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

0 2010 2015 2020

LIB RAW MATERIAL MARKET 2020 & 2025 FORECASTS

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010

Others (Flow battery, NAS, )

Others (Flow battery, 300 000 NAS, )

Li-ion 250 000

NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

100 000 50 000

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN

PACK MANUFACTURE RS Revenues: 11 B$ Gross margin: <10%

Revenues: 9 B$ Gross margin: <10%

The worldwide Battery market 2011-2025

SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS 440 M m Revenues: 0,8 B$ CAGR 06/11: 15%

BATTERIES 2012 October 24-26, 2012 Nice, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS BY CHEMISTRY

Cathode active materials for LIB, % of volume, 2011