Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng

Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

Executve Summary
1he world ls wlLnesslng changes ln almosL every sphere of human acLlvlLy owlng Lo rapld
Lechnologlcal advancemenL, globallzaLlon, unmanageable flnanclal crlsls, unemploymenL
and cllmaLe change. lL ls becomlng lncreaslngly clear LhaL we need Lo boLh reLhlnk Lhe
naLure of Lhe human [ourney, and creaLe a new economlc narraLlve LhaL can Lake us lnLo a
more equlLable and susLalnable fuLure. lndla wlLh lLs bllllon plus populaLlon has Lo deal wlLh
Lhe evolvlng scenarlo for a secure and brlghLer fuLure for lLs comlng generaLlons. 1he
demographlc dlvldend of lndla has been well documenLed and dellberaLed. Powever, Lhe
concern Loday ls LhaL lf Lhls demographlc dlvldend ls noL channellzed approprlaLely glven
Lhe manpower dlsplacemenL by lnLelllgenL Lechnologles, lL could well Lurn ouL Lo be a
demographlc dlsasLer. 1hls parLlcularly needs a serlous conslderaLlon, as lndla wlll add
anoLher 241 mn people ln worklng age populaLlon beLween 2010-2030.
lL ls wlLh Lhese LhoughLs amongsL oLhers, Lhe llCCl ?oung Leaders (l?Ls) came up wlLh Lhe
ldea of sLudylng Lhe global Mega 1rends LhaL would be lmpacLlng Lhe growLh of Lhe lndlan
economy. 1he l?Ls were fasclnaLed by Lhe concepL of 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon (1l8) by
!eremy 8lfkln. 1ogeLher Lhey ldenLlfled 3 oLher Lrends emerglng ouL of Lhe 1l8 Mega 1rend
LhaL wlll lmpacL lndla's economlc and soclal developmenL sLory ln Lhe nexL decade. 1hls
WhlLe aper ls an aLLempL Lo sLudy Lhe global and lndlan scenarlo under each Mega 1rend
Lo help us derlve a way forward subsequenLly.
8y Lhe 1980's Lhe evldence was mounLlng LhaL Lhe fossll fuel-drlven lndusLrlal revoluLlon
was peaklng and LhaL human-lnduced cllmaLe change was forclng a planeLary crlsls of
unLold proporLlons. Accordlng Lo !eremy 8lfkln greaL economlc revoluLlons ln hlsLory occur
when new communlcaLlon Lechnologles converge wlLh new energy sysLems.
1he mld-1990s have ushered ln Lhe lnLerneL Lechnology and renewable energles Lo merge
and creaLe a powerful new lnfrasLrucLure for a 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon (1l8) LhaL would
change Lhe world. Accordlng Lo 8lfkln, ln Lhe comlng era, we wlll see mlcro power planLs ln
Lhe form of energy generaLlon ln homes/bulldlngs connecLed Lhrough an "energy
lnLerneL," [usL llke we now creaLe and share lnformaLlon onllne. 1he democraLlzaLlon of
energy wlll brlng wlLh lL a fundamenLal reorderlng of human relaLlonshlps, lmpacLlng Lhe
very way we conducL buslness, govern socleLy, educaLe our chlldren, and engage ln clvlc llfe.
lor 20 years, governmenL and lndusLry were [usLlflably skepLlcal abouL Lhe ablllLy of sofL
MLGA 1kLND 1
1he 1h|rd Industr|a| kevo|ut|on

Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng

Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

renewable energles Lo provlde Lhe power needed Lo manage a complex, global economy.
Powever, ln 2007, Lhe Luropean unlon endorsed Lhe 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon and now ls
belng lmplemenLed by Lhe varlous agencles wlLhln Lhe Luropean unlon as well as ln Lhe
member sLaLes.
Accordlng Lo 8lfkln Lhe esLabllshmenL of a 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon lnfrasLrucLure across
lndla wlll lay Lhe basls for a susLalnable economy ln Lhe 21sL cenLury lf we lay down Lhe flve
plllars of 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon. 1hese are (1) shlfL Lo renewable energy, (2)
Lransformlng Lhe bulldlng sLock of every conLlnenL lnLo mlcro-power planLs Lo collecL
renewable energles on-slLe, (3) deploylng hydrogen and oLher sLorage Lechnologles ln
every bulldlng and LhroughouL Lhe lnfrasLrucLure Lo sLore lnLermlLLenL energles, (4) uslng
lnformaLlon Lechnology Lo Lransform Lhe elecLrlclLy grld of every conLlnenL lnLo an energy-
sharlng lnLerneL LhaL acLs [usL llke Lhe lnLerneL and (3) LranslLlonlng Lhe LransporL fleeL Lo
elecLrlc plug-ln and fuel cell vehlcles LhaL can buy and sell elecLrlclLy on a smarL,
conLlnenLal, lnLeracLlve power grld.
Access Lo knowledge has flaLLened Lhe world, ma[or opporLunlLles are avallable Lo anyone
who can uLlllze Lhe beneflL of Lhls knowledge revoluLlon lrrespecLlve of wheLher Lhey are
locaLed. LnLrepreneurs across Lhe world can become global provlders of off-shored
servlces, and manufacLured producLs aL a compeLlLlve prlce. 1hls has resulLed ln a
phenomenal rlse ln purchaslng power ln rapldly developlng economles lncludlng lndla.
1he new economy wlll usher ln a new era of knowledge based collaboraLlve educaLlon,
lndusLry relevanL research and producL lnnovaLlon Lo power Lhe growLh of new age
enLerprlses fuelled by Lhe convergence of abundanL energy and Lhe power of
communlcaLlon Lechnologles. 1hese facLors would empower Lhe masses, and enable
capablllLles Lo provlde work opporLunlLles and quallLy of llfe wlLh human dlgnlLy Lo bllllons
of people around Lhe globe.
1he WhlLe aper wrlLLen by 8 Sharma makes a sLrong case for a paradlgm shlfL ln our
sLraLeglc approach Lo harnesslng energy and also for Lhe preparaLlon of Lhe new age
enLerprlses.
Accordlng Lo 8lfkln, Lhe new era wlll brlng wlLh lL a reorganlzaLlon of power relaLlonshlps
across every level of socleLy. 1he 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon ls organlzed nodally, scales
laLerally, and favors dlsLrlbuLed and collaboraLlve buslness pracLlces LhaL work mosL
effecLlvely ln neLworks. 1he "democraLlzaLlon of energy" has profound lmpllcaLlons as we
enLer lnLo Lhe era of "ulsLrlbuLed CaplLallsm."
ulsLrlbuLed caplLallsm ushers ln new buslness models whlch greaLly reduces caplLal, energy
and labor cosLs, and lncreases producLlvlLy. When Lhousands of buslnesses - large
MLGA 1kLND 2
New 8us|ness Mode|s |n the Age of D|str|buted Cap|ta||sm
companles, SMLS, and cooperaLlves - connecL wlLh one anoLher on shared neLworks, Lhe
dlsLrlbuLed power ofLen exceeds Lhe power of sLandalone glanL companles LhaL
characLerlzed Lhe llrsL and Second lndusLrlal 8evoluLlons.
ln lndla, Lhe revoluLlon ln lnformaLlon and CommunlcaLlon 1echnologles has noL only made
communlcaLlon cheap Lhrough near unlversal access Lo cell phones, buL has also
dramaLlcally changed Lhe ecosysLem Lo make posslble a varleLy of new buslness models.
Companles are now lnnovaLlng noL [usL for Lhe rlch buL also for Lhe poor. 1he ldea of
"lorLune aL Lhe 8oLLom of Lhe yramld" (laLe C k rahlad),"Candhlan lnnovaLlon", "frugal
englneerlng" and Lhe lndlan "[ugaad" are already aL work.
1he paper on Lhls Lrend by Shallendra MehLa looks aL several lnnovaLlve new producL and
servlces along wlLh Lhelr assoclaLed buslness models ln Lhe conLexL of lndla. 1hey have
been chosen Lo lllusLraLe a range of dlsLrlbuLed lnformaLlon and energy Lechnologles. ln all
of Lhese cases Lhere ls Lhe noLlon of a "lead markeL" LhaL ls markeL wlLh unlque
characLerlsLlcs LhaL ls recepLlve Lo a parLlcular klnd of lnnovaLlon. lor example, cramped
llvlng spaces mean LhaL !apan ls recepLlve Lo mlnlaLurlzaLlon. Pavlng a sLrong Creen
movemenL means LhaL Cermany ls very recepLlve Lo clean energy. Slmllarly, lndla ls very
recepLlve Lo producLs LhaL are LargeLed Lo frugal consumers.
Whlle mllllons of new [obs wlll be creaLed ln Lhe bulld-ouL of Lhe flve plllar 1hlrd lndusLrlal
8evoluLlon lnfrasLrucLure over Lhe course of Lhe nexL four decades, mllllons of [obs ln oLher
lndusLrles wlll be losL Lo lnLelllgenL Lechnology dlsplacemenL. 1hls ls already beglnnlng Lo
happen.
ln lndusLry afLer lndusLry, from facLory producLlon Lo banklng servlces, companles have
experlenced dramaLlc lncreases ln producLlvlLy, whlch allows Lhem Lo produce more ouLpuL
wlLh few workers. nowhere ls Lhe dlsconnecL beLween producLlvlLy galns and [ob losses
greaLer Lhan ln manufacLurlng. ln Lhe slngle perlod beLween 1993 and 2002, more Lhan 31
mn manufacLurlng [obs dlsappeared ln Lhe 20 largesL economles, whlle producLlvlLy rose by
4.3 and global lndusLrlal producLlon lncreased by 30. ManufacLurlng [obs decllned by
16, ln Lhe same perlod, ln Lhe oLher ma[or economles and by more Lhan 11 ln Lhe u.S. 8y
2010, manufacLurlng workers ln Lhe u.S. were produclng 38 more per hour Lhan ln 2000.
Whlle manufacLurlng ouLpuL has remalned falrly sLable over Lhe decade, employmenL has
decllned by more Lhan 32 because lL Lakes fewer workers Lo produce Lhe same ouLpuL. lf
Lhe currenL Lrend conLlnues - and lLs only llkely Lo acceleraLe wlLh even more smarL
Lechnologles - lL ls esLlmaLed LhaL global manufacLurlng employmenL wlll decrease from
163 mn workers Lo [usL a few mn workers by 2040, ellmlnaLlng mosL facLory [obs around Lhe
world.
MLGA1kLND 3
Inte|||gent 1echno|ogy and the Iuture of Work

Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng

Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

renewable energles Lo provlde Lhe power needed Lo manage a complex, global economy.
Powever, ln 2007, Lhe Luropean unlon endorsed Lhe 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon and now ls
belng lmplemenLed by Lhe varlous agencles wlLhln Lhe Luropean unlon as well as ln Lhe
member sLaLes.
Accordlng Lo 8lfkln Lhe esLabllshmenL of a 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon lnfrasLrucLure across
lndla wlll lay Lhe basls for a susLalnable economy ln Lhe 21sL cenLury lf we lay down Lhe flve
plllars of 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon. 1hese are (1) shlfL Lo renewable energy, (2)
Lransformlng Lhe bulldlng sLock of every conLlnenL lnLo mlcro-power planLs Lo collecL
renewable energles on-slLe, (3) deploylng hydrogen and oLher sLorage Lechnologles ln
every bulldlng and LhroughouL Lhe lnfrasLrucLure Lo sLore lnLermlLLenL energles, (4) uslng
lnformaLlon Lechnology Lo Lransform Lhe elecLrlclLy grld of every conLlnenL lnLo an energy-
sharlng lnLerneL LhaL acLs [usL llke Lhe lnLerneL and (3) LranslLlonlng Lhe LransporL fleeL Lo
elecLrlc plug-ln and fuel cell vehlcles LhaL can buy and sell elecLrlclLy on a smarL,
conLlnenLal, lnLeracLlve power grld.
Access Lo knowledge has flaLLened Lhe world, ma[or opporLunlLles are avallable Lo anyone
who can uLlllze Lhe beneflL of Lhls knowledge revoluLlon lrrespecLlve of wheLher Lhey are
locaLed. LnLrepreneurs across Lhe world can become global provlders of off-shored
servlces, and manufacLured producLs aL a compeLlLlve prlce. 1hls has resulLed ln a
phenomenal rlse ln purchaslng power ln rapldly developlng economles lncludlng lndla.
1he new economy wlll usher ln a new era of knowledge based collaboraLlve educaLlon,
lndusLry relevanL research and producL lnnovaLlon Lo power Lhe growLh of new age
enLerprlses fuelled by Lhe convergence of abundanL energy and Lhe power of
communlcaLlon Lechnologles. 1hese facLors would empower Lhe masses, and enable
capablllLles Lo provlde work opporLunlLles and quallLy of llfe wlLh human dlgnlLy Lo bllllons
of people around Lhe globe.
1he WhlLe aper wrlLLen by 8 Sharma makes a sLrong case for a paradlgm shlfL ln our
sLraLeglc approach Lo harnesslng energy and also for Lhe preparaLlon of Lhe new age
enLerprlses.
Accordlng Lo 8lfkln, Lhe new era wlll brlng wlLh lL a reorganlzaLlon of power relaLlonshlps
across every level of socleLy. 1he 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon ls organlzed nodally, scales
laLerally, and favors dlsLrlbuLed and collaboraLlve buslness pracLlces LhaL work mosL
effecLlvely ln neLworks. 1he "democraLlzaLlon of energy" has profound lmpllcaLlons as we
enLer lnLo Lhe era of "ulsLrlbuLed CaplLallsm."
ulsLrlbuLed caplLallsm ushers ln new buslness models whlch greaLly reduces caplLal, energy
and labor cosLs, and lncreases producLlvlLy. When Lhousands of buslnesses - large
MLGA 1kLND 2
New 8us|ness Mode|s |n the Age of D|str|buted Cap|ta||sm
companles, SMLS, and cooperaLlves - connecL wlLh one anoLher on shared neLworks, Lhe
dlsLrlbuLed power ofLen exceeds Lhe power of sLandalone glanL companles LhaL
characLerlzed Lhe llrsL and Second lndusLrlal 8evoluLlons.
ln lndla, Lhe revoluLlon ln lnformaLlon and CommunlcaLlon 1echnologles has noL only made
communlcaLlon cheap Lhrough near unlversal access Lo cell phones, buL has also
dramaLlcally changed Lhe ecosysLem Lo make posslble a varleLy of new buslness models.
Companles are now lnnovaLlng noL [usL for Lhe rlch buL also for Lhe poor. 1he ldea of
"lorLune aL Lhe 8oLLom of Lhe yramld" (laLe C k rahlad),"Candhlan lnnovaLlon", "frugal
englneerlng" and Lhe lndlan "[ugaad" are already aL work.
1he paper on Lhls Lrend by Shallendra MehLa looks aL several lnnovaLlve new producL and
servlces along wlLh Lhelr assoclaLed buslness models ln Lhe conLexL of lndla. 1hey have
been chosen Lo lllusLraLe a range of dlsLrlbuLed lnformaLlon and energy Lechnologles. ln all
of Lhese cases Lhere ls Lhe noLlon of a "lead markeL" LhaL ls markeL wlLh unlque
characLerlsLlcs LhaL ls recepLlve Lo a parLlcular klnd of lnnovaLlon. lor example, cramped
llvlng spaces mean LhaL !apan ls recepLlve Lo mlnlaLurlzaLlon. Pavlng a sLrong Creen
movemenL means LhaL Cermany ls very recepLlve Lo clean energy. Slmllarly, lndla ls very
recepLlve Lo producLs LhaL are LargeLed Lo frugal consumers.
Whlle mllllons of new [obs wlll be creaLed ln Lhe bulld-ouL of Lhe flve plllar 1hlrd lndusLrlal
8evoluLlon lnfrasLrucLure over Lhe course of Lhe nexL four decades, mllllons of [obs ln oLher
lndusLrles wlll be losL Lo lnLelllgenL Lechnology dlsplacemenL. 1hls ls already beglnnlng Lo
happen.
ln lndusLry afLer lndusLry, from facLory producLlon Lo banklng servlces, companles have
experlenced dramaLlc lncreases ln producLlvlLy, whlch allows Lhem Lo produce more ouLpuL
wlLh few workers. nowhere ls Lhe dlsconnecL beLween producLlvlLy galns and [ob losses
greaLer Lhan ln manufacLurlng. ln Lhe slngle perlod beLween 1993 and 2002, more Lhan 31
mn manufacLurlng [obs dlsappeared ln Lhe 20 largesL economles, whlle producLlvlLy rose by
4.3 and global lndusLrlal producLlon lncreased by 30. ManufacLurlng [obs decllned by
16, ln Lhe same perlod, ln Lhe oLher ma[or economles and by more Lhan 11 ln Lhe u.S. 8y
2010, manufacLurlng workers ln Lhe u.S. were produclng 38 more per hour Lhan ln 2000.
Whlle manufacLurlng ouLpuL has remalned falrly sLable over Lhe decade, employmenL has
decllned by more Lhan 32 because lL Lakes fewer workers Lo produce Lhe same ouLpuL. lf
Lhe currenL Lrend conLlnues - and lLs only llkely Lo acceleraLe wlLh even more smarL
Lechnologles - lL ls esLlmaLed LhaL global manufacLurlng employmenL wlll decrease from
163 mn workers Lo [usL a few mn workers by 2040, ellmlnaLlng mosL facLory [obs around Lhe
world.
MLGA1kLND 3
Inte|||gent 1echno|ogy and the Iuture of Work

Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng

Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

lnLelllgenL Lechnology ls Laklng over a mulLlLude of [obs once performed by human belngs
across secLors from reLalls, hosplLals, hoLels, rallways, governmenL eLc. 8lfkln pro[ecLs LhaL
by 2030, a maLure, lnLelllgenL 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon lnfrasLrucLure wlll be ln place,
essenLlally ellmlnaLlng mass labor as a domlnanL workforce ln Lhe markeL economy. 1he
second half of Lhe 21sL CenLury wlll be characLerlzed by bouLlque, hlgh-Lech, professlonal
workforces programmlng and monlLorlng lnLelllgenL Lechnology sysLems. All of whlch begs
Lhe quesLlon of how Lo keep hundreds of mllllons of people employed as we move furLher
lnLo Lhe cenLury.
ln lndla Loo lnLelllgenL Lechnologles are maklng ma[or, dlsrupLlve changes Lo lndusLrles and
secLors, and Lo our llves..
lC1-enabled servlces moved Lhousands of [obs ouL of Lhe WesL lnLo lndla. As
Lechnology furLher progresses, some of Lhose occupaLlons, such as cusLomer supporL,
and even sofLware codlng, are belng lncreaslngly auLomaLed. 1hls could mean a mllllon
[obs wlll dlsappear ln Lhelr presenL form.
1here ls exploslve growLh ln daLa enLry [obs, creaLed by pro[ecLs such as Aadhar (ulu),
drawlng more people lnLo Lhls secLor. AL Lhe same Llme, Lhe progress ln auLomaLed
forms capLure Lechnologles and web-based self-capLure (such as lncome-Lax e-flllng)
could creaLe a Llpplng polnL afLer whlch approxlmaLely half of Lhose recenLly-creaLed
[obs vanlsh.
1hls WhlLe aper by rasanLo kumar 8oy aLLempLs Lo ldenLlfy such occupaLlons LhaL wlll be
dlsrupLed, and draw up recommendaLlons for Lralnlng and re-skllllng presenL and fuLure
workers so LhaL Lhey can leverage Lhose newer areas, and are noL sklll-mlsmaLched when
Lhose opporLunlLles arlse. 1he danger ls LhaL lf Lhls ls noL done, Lhen Lhe dlsplaced labor
force lLself could be a soclo-economlc lmpedlmenL Lo furLher growLh, wlLh Lhe populaLlon's
buylng power reduced, affecLlng Lhe consumpLlon of goods and servlces.
Slmllarly, Lhere are oLher areas such as agrlculLure and healLhcare where [obs wlll noL be
dlsplaced, buL where lnLelllgenL Lechnologles coupled wlLh hlgh demand and growLh ln Lhe
secLor wlll creaLe mllllons of new [obs, demandlng newer Lechnlcal compeLence. 1he paper
seeks Lo ldenLlfy whaL Lhose are, Lo prepare fuLure workforces Lo leverage Lhem.
reparlng Lhe workforce and clLlzenry for Lhe new socleLy wlll requlre reLhlnklng Lhe
LradlLlonal educaLlonal model, wlLh lLs emphasls on rlgld lnsLrucLlon, memorlzaLlon of
facLs, reducLlonlsL Lhlnklng and auLonomous learnlng. ln Lhe new globally connecLed 1hlrd
lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon era, Lhe prlmary mlsslon of educaLlon ls Lo prepare sLudenLs Lo Lhlnk
and acL as parL of a shared blosphere. A new generaLlon of educaLors ls beglnnlng Lo

MLGA 1kLND 4
Co||aborat|ve Lducat|on
deconsLrucL Lhe classroom learnlng processes LhaL accompanled Lhe llrsL and Second
lndusLrlal 8evoluLlons and ls reconsLlLuLlng Lhe educaLlonal experlence along llnes
deslgned Lo encourage an exLended ecologlcal self, lmbued wlLh blosphere consclousness.
lnLerdlsclpllnary learnlng, mulLlculLural sLudles, empaLhlc sclenLlflc experlmenLaLlon, and a
sysLems approach Lo lnLegraLlng knowledge, are among Lhe cuLLlng-edge Leachlng
pracLlces LhaL are forclng a fundamenLal change ln Lhe educaLlonal process and preparlng
sLudenLs Lo llve ln a complex, mulLldlmenslonal, global socleLy. 1he new dlsLrlbuLed and
collaboraLlve approach Lo learnlng mlrrors Lhe way a younger generaLlon learns and shares
lnformaLlon, ldeas, and experlences on Lhe lnLerneL ln "open source" learnlng spaces and
soclal medla slLes. ulsLrlbuLed and collaboraLlve learnlng also prepares Lhe workforce of
Lhe 21sL CenLury for a 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon economy LhaL operaLes on Lhe same seL of
prlnclples.
ln lndla, Lhe educaLlon sysLem ls blL of a flux ln Lhe recenL Llmes. ollcy makers and
educaLlonlsLs ln lndla have been debaLlng over Lhe pollcy reforms for decades. 1hls paper
by nlLln khanna Lrles Lo propose a model framework for Allgned & CollaboraLlve LducaLlon
whlch, aL once, helps Lo Lake a comprehenslve vlew of educaLlon as a sysLem raLher Lhan
focuslng on lLs componenLs ln lsolaLlon.
1he model looks aL Lhe followlng Lhree aspecLs whlch are cenLral Lo any educaLlon sysLem:
A. 1he vlslon of educaLlon: here we explore Lhe need for a clearly arLlculaLed, shared and
allgned vlslon as fundamenLal Lo allgnlng dlsparaLe efforLs and energles.
8. 1he lnfluenclng facLors ln educaLlon: sLakeholders and Lhe forces Lhey exerL boLh from
Lhe demand and supply slde.
C. ComponenL vecLors of educaLlon. 1hese vecLors collecLlvely deflne Lhe fabrlc of Lhe
educaLlon sysLem lLself. Pere we have looked aL followlng componenL vecLors-
vecLor 1- 1ransformaLlonal dlmenslons: 1hese are Lhe fundamenLal dlmenslons along
whlch educaLlon needs Lo produce deslred and relevanL resulLs-
vecLor 2- LlemenLs of LducaLlon: llve elemenLs have been Laken ln Lhe model - conLenL and
currlculums, pedagogy, evaluaLlon and cerLlflcaLlon, dellvery models, and flnance models.
vecLor 3- Levels of LducaLlon : 1he Lhree levels used ln Lhe model are early chlldhood
educaLlon, school educaLlon and hlgher educaLlon.
lundamenLally, Lhe purpose of educaLlon ls Lo prepare Lhe generaLlons for Lomorrow,
Loday. ln LhaL splrlL, Lhe model framework allows us Lo anLlclpaLe, even envlslon Lhe fuLure
and Lhen clarlfy Lhe paLhways Lo reach Lhere. lf educaLlon ls Lo move Lowards achlevlng Lhe
ldeals of expanslon, equlLy and excellence, Lhls framework wlll seL Lhe dlrecLlons and
provlde Lhe momenLum.

Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng

Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

lnLelllgenL Lechnology ls Laklng over a mulLlLude of [obs once performed by human belngs
across secLors from reLalls, hosplLals, hoLels, rallways, governmenL eLc. 8lfkln pro[ecLs LhaL
by 2030, a maLure, lnLelllgenL 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon lnfrasLrucLure wlll be ln place,
essenLlally ellmlnaLlng mass labor as a domlnanL workforce ln Lhe markeL economy. 1he
second half of Lhe 21sL CenLury wlll be characLerlzed by bouLlque, hlgh-Lech, professlonal
workforces programmlng and monlLorlng lnLelllgenL Lechnology sysLems. All of whlch begs
Lhe quesLlon of how Lo keep hundreds of mllllons of people employed as we move furLher
lnLo Lhe cenLury.
ln lndla Loo lnLelllgenL Lechnologles are maklng ma[or, dlsrupLlve changes Lo lndusLrles and
secLors, and Lo our llves..
lC1-enabled servlces moved Lhousands of [obs ouL of Lhe WesL lnLo lndla. As
Lechnology furLher progresses, some of Lhose occupaLlons, such as cusLomer supporL,
and even sofLware codlng, are belng lncreaslngly auLomaLed. 1hls could mean a mllllon
[obs wlll dlsappear ln Lhelr presenL form.
1here ls exploslve growLh ln daLa enLry [obs, creaLed by pro[ecLs such as Aadhar (ulu),
drawlng more people lnLo Lhls secLor. AL Lhe same Llme, Lhe progress ln auLomaLed
forms capLure Lechnologles and web-based self-capLure (such as lncome-Lax e-flllng)
could creaLe a Llpplng polnL afLer whlch approxlmaLely half of Lhose recenLly-creaLed
[obs vanlsh.
1hls WhlLe aper by rasanLo kumar 8oy aLLempLs Lo ldenLlfy such occupaLlons LhaL wlll be
dlsrupLed, and draw up recommendaLlons for Lralnlng and re-skllllng presenL and fuLure
workers so LhaL Lhey can leverage Lhose newer areas, and are noL sklll-mlsmaLched when
Lhose opporLunlLles arlse. 1he danger ls LhaL lf Lhls ls noL done, Lhen Lhe dlsplaced labor
force lLself could be a soclo-economlc lmpedlmenL Lo furLher growLh, wlLh Lhe populaLlon's
buylng power reduced, affecLlng Lhe consumpLlon of goods and servlces.
Slmllarly, Lhere are oLher areas such as agrlculLure and healLhcare where [obs wlll noL be
dlsplaced, buL where lnLelllgenL Lechnologles coupled wlLh hlgh demand and growLh ln Lhe
secLor wlll creaLe mllllons of new [obs, demandlng newer Lechnlcal compeLence. 1he paper
seeks Lo ldenLlfy whaL Lhose are, Lo prepare fuLure workforces Lo leverage Lhem.
reparlng Lhe workforce and clLlzenry for Lhe new socleLy wlll requlre reLhlnklng Lhe
LradlLlonal educaLlonal model, wlLh lLs emphasls on rlgld lnsLrucLlon, memorlzaLlon of
facLs, reducLlonlsL Lhlnklng and auLonomous learnlng. ln Lhe new globally connecLed 1hlrd
lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon era, Lhe prlmary mlsslon of educaLlon ls Lo prepare sLudenLs Lo Lhlnk
and acL as parL of a shared blosphere. A new generaLlon of educaLors ls beglnnlng Lo

MLGA 1kLND 4
Co||aborat|ve Lducat|on
deconsLrucL Lhe classroom learnlng processes LhaL accompanled Lhe llrsL and Second
lndusLrlal 8evoluLlons and ls reconsLlLuLlng Lhe educaLlonal experlence along llnes
deslgned Lo encourage an exLended ecologlcal self, lmbued wlLh blosphere consclousness.
lnLerdlsclpllnary learnlng, mulLlculLural sLudles, empaLhlc sclenLlflc experlmenLaLlon, and a
sysLems approach Lo lnLegraLlng knowledge, are among Lhe cuLLlng-edge Leachlng
pracLlces LhaL are forclng a fundamenLal change ln Lhe educaLlonal process and preparlng
sLudenLs Lo llve ln a complex, mulLldlmenslonal, global socleLy. 1he new dlsLrlbuLed and
collaboraLlve approach Lo learnlng mlrrors Lhe way a younger generaLlon learns and shares
lnformaLlon, ldeas, and experlences on Lhe lnLerneL ln "open source" learnlng spaces and
soclal medla slLes. ulsLrlbuLed and collaboraLlve learnlng also prepares Lhe workforce of
Lhe 21sL CenLury for a 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon economy LhaL operaLes on Lhe same seL of
prlnclples.
ln lndla, Lhe educaLlon sysLem ls blL of a flux ln Lhe recenL Llmes. ollcy makers and
educaLlonlsLs ln lndla have been debaLlng over Lhe pollcy reforms for decades. 1hls paper
by nlLln khanna Lrles Lo propose a model framework for Allgned & CollaboraLlve LducaLlon
whlch, aL once, helps Lo Lake a comprehenslve vlew of educaLlon as a sysLem raLher Lhan
focuslng on lLs componenLs ln lsolaLlon.
1he model looks aL Lhe followlng Lhree aspecLs whlch are cenLral Lo any educaLlon sysLem:
A. 1he vlslon of educaLlon: here we explore Lhe need for a clearly arLlculaLed, shared and
allgned vlslon as fundamenLal Lo allgnlng dlsparaLe efforLs and energles.
8. 1he lnfluenclng facLors ln educaLlon: sLakeholders and Lhe forces Lhey exerL boLh from
Lhe demand and supply slde.
C. ComponenL vecLors of educaLlon. 1hese vecLors collecLlvely deflne Lhe fabrlc of Lhe
educaLlon sysLem lLself. Pere we have looked aL followlng componenL vecLors-
vecLor 1- 1ransformaLlonal dlmenslons: 1hese are Lhe fundamenLal dlmenslons along
whlch educaLlon needs Lo produce deslred and relevanL resulLs-
vecLor 2- LlemenLs of LducaLlon: llve elemenLs have been Laken ln Lhe model - conLenL and
currlculums, pedagogy, evaluaLlon and cerLlflcaLlon, dellvery models, and flnance models.
vecLor 3- Levels of LducaLlon : 1he Lhree levels used ln Lhe model are early chlldhood
educaLlon, school educaLlon and hlgher educaLlon.
lundamenLally, Lhe purpose of educaLlon ls Lo prepare Lhe generaLlons for Lomorrow,
Loday. ln LhaL splrlL, Lhe model framework allows us Lo anLlclpaLe, even envlslon Lhe fuLure
and Lhen clarlfy Lhe paLhways Lo reach Lhere. lf educaLlon ls Lo move Lowards achlevlng Lhe
ldeals of expanslon, equlLy and excellence, Lhls framework wlll seL Lhe dlrecLlons and
provlde Lhe momenLum.

Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng

Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

MLGA 1kLND S
1he Ascendance of C|v|| Soc|ety
1he 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon rolls LogeLher Lhe lasL sLage of Lhe greaL lndusLrlal saga and
Lhe flrsL sLage of Lhe emerglng CollaboraLlve Lra. 1he clvll socleLy wlll play an lncreaslngly
lmporLanL brldge, as an lncubaLor of crlLlcal soclal caplLal and as a progenlLor of Lhousands
of new soclal enLerprlses and mllllons of new [obs, as Lhe evolvlng 1hlrd lndusLrlal
8evoluLlon meLamorphoslze lnLo Lhe collaboraLlve age over Lhe nexL half cenLury.
1he clvll socleLy, where human belngs creaLe soclal caplLal, ls made up of a wlde range of
lnLeresLs - rellglous and culLural organlzaLlons, educaLlon, research, healLhcare, soclal
servlces, sporLs, envlronmenLal groups, recreaLlonal acLlvlLy and a hosL of advocacy
organlzaLlons, whose purpose ls Lo creaLe soclal bonds. Whlle Lhe clvll socleLy ls ofLen
relegaLed Lo Lhe back Ller of soclal llfe and regarded as marglnally lmporLanL ln comparlson
Lo Lhe economy and governmenL, lL ls Lhe prlmary arena ln whlch clvlllzaLlon unfolds. As Lhe
1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon ls deeply collaboraLlve ln naLure, lL requlres a LrusLlng and
LransparenL relaLlonshlp beLween people. CreaLlng soclal caplLal ln Lhe clvll socleLy,
Lherefore, wlll be crlLlcal Lo Lhe success of Lhe comlng economlc era.
nonproflLs employ nearly 36 mn full-Llme equlvalenL workers or an average of 3.6 percenL
of Lhe economlcally acLlve populaLlons ln 42 counLles surveyed. ln Lhe uS and ln many Lu
member sLaLes, Lhe nonproflL secLor already accounLs for more Lhan 10 of LoLal
employmenL. 1he Clvll SocleLy ls llkely Lo become as slgnlflcanL a source of employmenL as
Lhe markeL secLor by mld-cenLury, for Lhe slmple reason LhaL creaLlng soclal caplLal relles on
human lnLeracLlvlLy, whereas creaLlng markeL caplLal lncreaslngly relles on lnLelllgenL
Lechnology. Crowlng employmenL ln Lhe clvll socleLy wlll provlde an lncreaslng percenLage
of Lhe consumer lncome ln an ever more lnLegraLed and auLomaLed global economy.
ln lndla Loday we see Lhe role of Lhe governmenL shrlnklng whlle movlng Lowards Lhe role of
faclllLaLor, wlLh llmlLed arenas for sLaLe acLlon. 1he spaces belng vacaLed by Lhe sLaLe are
belng occupled by Lhe markeL and large prlvaLe corporaLlons (ofLen operaLlng wlLhouL
boundarles as LransnaLlonal corporaLlons). 1he prlvaLe secLor ls growlng ln slze and clouL
and has much more dlrecL lmpacL on Lhe llves of people Lhan before, even ln poor sLaLes.
ldeas of free markeL and Lrade, whlch are belng promoLed by agencles llke Lhe W1C, are
deeply lmpacLlng, lnfluenclng and alLerlng governance and economy ln all counLrles,
lncludlng lndla.
WhaL exacLly Lhen ls Lhe mandaLe of clvll socleLy? lor one, ln democraLlc sLaLes, clvll socleLy
ls expecLed Lo keep waLch on vlolaLlons of democraLlc norms by Lhe sLaLe, Lhrough clLlzen
acLlvlsm, Lhe maklng and clrculaLlon of lnformed publlc oplnlon, a free medla, and a
mulLlpllclLy of soclal assoclaLlons. Cnly a vlbranL and waLchful clvll socleLy can prevenL Lhe
pollLlcal ellLe from lapslng on lLs commlLmenLs and responslblllLles. 1he recenL ascendance
of Lhe clvll ls a "crescendo" wlLh Lhe posslblllLy of recurrence ln Lhe fuLure, ln whlch Lhe clvll
socleLy formaLlons wlll only gaLher momenLum. lndla's clvll socleLy has always been
lnLrlnslc Lo lLs pollLlcal and economlc developmenL. lndeed, lL can be sald LhaL mosL
changes ln pollLy and economy have noL necessarlly been lnlLlaLed by pollLlcal parLles buL
by clvll socleLy groups.
Powever, Lhe Lask of clvll socleLy does noL end here. As ln developed counLrles, Lhe clvll
socleLy can become a slgnlflcanL conLrlbuLor Lo Lhe economy as lL develops capaclLles Lo
employ more people and compllmenL Lhe prlvaLe and governmenL secLor ln employmenL
generaLlon. WlLh soclal caplLal and relaLlonshlps raLher Lhan an lnsLlLuLlonal mechanlsm
guldlng Lhe buslnesses of fuLure, clvll socleLy would undoubLedly be a slgnlflcanL share of
Lhe counLry's Cu ln years Lo come.
1hls WhlLe aper by ?ashwanL ueshmukh, aLLempLs Lo Lakes us Lhrough Lhe evoluLlon of
clvll socleLy ln lndla, analyse successful case sLudles and help us undersLand Lhe fuLure
lmpllcaLlons of Lhe re-emergence of clvll socleLy.
Whlle Lhe llrsL and Second lndusLrlal 8evoluLlons were accompanled by naLlonal
economles and naLlon-sLaLe governance, 1he 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon, because lL ls
dlsLrlbuLed and collaboraLlve by naLure, scales laLerally along conLlguous landmasses, and
favors conLlnenLal economles and conLlnenLal governlng unlons. ConLlnenLallzaLlon ls
becomlng Lhe new paLh Lo globallzaLlon.
Sharlng renewable energy laLerally, ln power, communlcaLlons and LransporL neLworks LhaL
sLreLch across conLlnenLs, llke we now share lnformaLlon vlrLually ln neLworks across Lhe
lnLerneL, ls golng Lo radlcally Lransform Lhe pollLlcal world. 1he new energy relaLlonshlps
wlll requlre governlng [urlsdlcLlons LhaL are slmllarly laLeral and neLworked and LhaL
encompasses Lhe ouLer llmlLs of Lhe 1l8's geographlcal reach, whlch are Lhe edges of
conLlnenLs. lf noL lnevlLable, lL ls aL leasL hlghly llkely LhaL conLlnenLal unlons wlll become
Lhe new governlng [urlsdlcLlons Lo regulaLe emerglng conLlnenLal markeLs around Lhe
world ln Lhe 21sL CenLury.
1he Luropean unlon ls Lhe flrsL conLlnenLal economy and pollLlcal unlon Lo begln
LranslLlonlng lnLo a 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon. ln norLh Amerlca, 1he norLh Amerlcan lree
1rade AgreemenL (nAl1A) ls a precursor Lo a conLlnenLal unlon. AlLhough locallLles,
reglons, and naLlonal governmenLs wlll noL dlsappear ln Lhe comlng cenLury - Lhey wlll
acLually be sLrengLhened - conLlnenLal unlons provlde an expanslve pollLlcal framework for
overseelng lnLegraLed conLlnenLal markeLs.
1oday Lhe prospecLs for reglonal progress ln Asla are brlghL and lndla ls ldeally poslLloned Lo
help faclllLaLe Lhe esLabllshmenL of a slngle lnLegraLed Aslan conLlnenLal markeL and
accompanylng pollLlcal unlon. ln parLlcular, Lhe creaLlon of an Aslan energy lnLerneL wlll
MLGA 1kLND 6
Cont|nenta| Markets and Cont|nenta| o||t|ca| Un|ons

Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng

Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

MLGA 1kLND S
1he Ascendance of C|v|| Soc|ety
1he 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon rolls LogeLher Lhe lasL sLage of Lhe greaL lndusLrlal saga and
Lhe flrsL sLage of Lhe emerglng CollaboraLlve Lra. 1he clvll socleLy wlll play an lncreaslngly
lmporLanL brldge, as an lncubaLor of crlLlcal soclal caplLal and as a progenlLor of Lhousands
of new soclal enLerprlses and mllllons of new [obs, as Lhe evolvlng 1hlrd lndusLrlal
8evoluLlon meLamorphoslze lnLo Lhe collaboraLlve age over Lhe nexL half cenLury.
1he clvll socleLy, where human belngs creaLe soclal caplLal, ls made up of a wlde range of
lnLeresLs - rellglous and culLural organlzaLlons, educaLlon, research, healLhcare, soclal
servlces, sporLs, envlronmenLal groups, recreaLlonal acLlvlLy and a hosL of advocacy
organlzaLlons, whose purpose ls Lo creaLe soclal bonds. Whlle Lhe clvll socleLy ls ofLen
relegaLed Lo Lhe back Ller of soclal llfe and regarded as marglnally lmporLanL ln comparlson
Lo Lhe economy and governmenL, lL ls Lhe prlmary arena ln whlch clvlllzaLlon unfolds. As Lhe
1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon ls deeply collaboraLlve ln naLure, lL requlres a LrusLlng and
LransparenL relaLlonshlp beLween people. CreaLlng soclal caplLal ln Lhe clvll socleLy,
Lherefore, wlll be crlLlcal Lo Lhe success of Lhe comlng economlc era.
nonproflLs employ nearly 36 mn full-Llme equlvalenL workers or an average of 3.6 percenL
of Lhe economlcally acLlve populaLlons ln 42 counLles surveyed. ln Lhe uS and ln many Lu
member sLaLes, Lhe nonproflL secLor already accounLs for more Lhan 10 of LoLal
employmenL. 1he Clvll SocleLy ls llkely Lo become as slgnlflcanL a source of employmenL as
Lhe markeL secLor by mld-cenLury, for Lhe slmple reason LhaL creaLlng soclal caplLal relles on
human lnLeracLlvlLy, whereas creaLlng markeL caplLal lncreaslngly relles on lnLelllgenL
Lechnology. Crowlng employmenL ln Lhe clvll socleLy wlll provlde an lncreaslng percenLage
of Lhe consumer lncome ln an ever more lnLegraLed and auLomaLed global economy.
ln lndla Loday we see Lhe role of Lhe governmenL shrlnklng whlle movlng Lowards Lhe role of
faclllLaLor, wlLh llmlLed arenas for sLaLe acLlon. 1he spaces belng vacaLed by Lhe sLaLe are
belng occupled by Lhe markeL and large prlvaLe corporaLlons (ofLen operaLlng wlLhouL
boundarles as LransnaLlonal corporaLlons). 1he prlvaLe secLor ls growlng ln slze and clouL
and has much more dlrecL lmpacL on Lhe llves of people Lhan before, even ln poor sLaLes.
ldeas of free markeL and Lrade, whlch are belng promoLed by agencles llke Lhe W1C, are
deeply lmpacLlng, lnfluenclng and alLerlng governance and economy ln all counLrles,
lncludlng lndla.
WhaL exacLly Lhen ls Lhe mandaLe of clvll socleLy? lor one, ln democraLlc sLaLes, clvll socleLy
ls expecLed Lo keep waLch on vlolaLlons of democraLlc norms by Lhe sLaLe, Lhrough clLlzen
acLlvlsm, Lhe maklng and clrculaLlon of lnformed publlc oplnlon, a free medla, and a
mulLlpllclLy of soclal assoclaLlons. Cnly a vlbranL and waLchful clvll socleLy can prevenL Lhe
pollLlcal ellLe from lapslng on lLs commlLmenLs and responslblllLles. 1he recenL ascendance
of Lhe clvll ls a "crescendo" wlLh Lhe posslblllLy of recurrence ln Lhe fuLure, ln whlch Lhe clvll
socleLy formaLlons wlll only gaLher momenLum. lndla's clvll socleLy has always been
lnLrlnslc Lo lLs pollLlcal and economlc developmenL. lndeed, lL can be sald LhaL mosL
changes ln pollLy and economy have noL necessarlly been lnlLlaLed by pollLlcal parLles buL
by clvll socleLy groups.
Powever, Lhe Lask of clvll socleLy does noL end here. As ln developed counLrles, Lhe clvll
socleLy can become a slgnlflcanL conLrlbuLor Lo Lhe economy as lL develops capaclLles Lo
employ more people and compllmenL Lhe prlvaLe and governmenL secLor ln employmenL
generaLlon. WlLh soclal caplLal and relaLlonshlps raLher Lhan an lnsLlLuLlonal mechanlsm
guldlng Lhe buslnesses of fuLure, clvll socleLy would undoubLedly be a slgnlflcanL share of
Lhe counLry's Cu ln years Lo come.
1hls WhlLe aper by ?ashwanL ueshmukh, aLLempLs Lo Lakes us Lhrough Lhe evoluLlon of
clvll socleLy ln lndla, analyse successful case sLudles and help us undersLand Lhe fuLure
lmpllcaLlons of Lhe re-emergence of clvll socleLy.
Whlle Lhe llrsL and Second lndusLrlal 8evoluLlons were accompanled by naLlonal
economles and naLlon-sLaLe governance, 1he 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon, because lL ls
dlsLrlbuLed and collaboraLlve by naLure, scales laLerally along conLlguous landmasses, and
favors conLlnenLal economles and conLlnenLal governlng unlons. ConLlnenLallzaLlon ls
becomlng Lhe new paLh Lo globallzaLlon.
Sharlng renewable energy laLerally, ln power, communlcaLlons and LransporL neLworks LhaL
sLreLch across conLlnenLs, llke we now share lnformaLlon vlrLually ln neLworks across Lhe
lnLerneL, ls golng Lo radlcally Lransform Lhe pollLlcal world. 1he new energy relaLlonshlps
wlll requlre governlng [urlsdlcLlons LhaL are slmllarly laLeral and neLworked and LhaL
encompasses Lhe ouLer llmlLs of Lhe 1l8's geographlcal reach, whlch are Lhe edges of
conLlnenLs. lf noL lnevlLable, lL ls aL leasL hlghly llkely LhaL conLlnenLal unlons wlll become
Lhe new governlng [urlsdlcLlons Lo regulaLe emerglng conLlnenLal markeLs around Lhe
world ln Lhe 21sL CenLury.
1he Luropean unlon ls Lhe flrsL conLlnenLal economy and pollLlcal unlon Lo begln
LranslLlonlng lnLo a 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon. ln norLh Amerlca, 1he norLh Amerlcan lree
1rade AgreemenL (nAl1A) ls a precursor Lo a conLlnenLal unlon. AlLhough locallLles,
reglons, and naLlonal governmenLs wlll noL dlsappear ln Lhe comlng cenLury - Lhey wlll
acLually be sLrengLhened - conLlnenLal unlons provlde an expanslve pollLlcal framework for
overseelng lnLegraLed conLlnenLal markeLs.
1oday Lhe prospecLs for reglonal progress ln Asla are brlghL and lndla ls ldeally poslLloned Lo
help faclllLaLe Lhe esLabllshmenL of a slngle lnLegraLed Aslan conLlnenLal markeL and
accompanylng pollLlcal unlon. ln parLlcular, Lhe creaLlon of an Aslan energy lnLerneL wlll
MLGA 1kLND 6
Cont|nenta| Markets and Cont|nenta| o||t|ca| Un|ons
Nega Trends of the Emerg|ng
Th|rd Industr|aI RevoIut|on |n Ind|a

allow hundreds of mn of people Lo produce Lhelr own green elecLrlclLy and share surpluses
wlLh one anoLher across Lhe Aslan conLlnenL. ln Lhls conLexL, Lhe lndlan buslness
communlLy has an enormous opporLunlLy Lo help shape Lhe fuLure of Lhe Aslan markeL, by
spearheadlng Lhe conLlnenLal LranslLlon Lo a posL-carbon 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon
economy.
1hls aparL, Lhe groundwork for a green fuLure has already sLarLed. lndla has lmmense
poLenLlal ln Lerms of renewable energy and a qulck glance aL Lhe flve plllars of 1hlrd
lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon reveals LhaL lndla and Asla can pull Lhe Lrlgger whlch mlghL carry us Lo
a susLalnable posL-carbon era.
We belleve LhaL Lhe shlfL ln global power from Lhe ALlanLlc Lo Lhe aclflc has sLarLed ln rlghL
earnesL wlLh emerglng and developlng economles pro[ecLed Lo have a 30 share of World
Cu (on a purchaslng power parlLy basls) by 2012 (vls--vls 37.3 for C7 counLrles). 1hls
WhlLe paper by 8a[lv kumar lllusLraLes, how Lhe 1hlrd lndusLrlal 8evoluLlon wlll make
posslble Lhls shlfL and creaLe a new dlsLrlbuLed soclal vlslon ln Lhe 21sL cenLury for Asla and
how lndla wlLh lLs abundanL naLural resources, burgeonlng mlddle class and a huge rural
markeL ls well polsed Lo Lake advanLage of such a change.
The Thrd lndustraI
RevoIuton n lnda
Mega Trend 1