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DCF Valuation Analysis

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For.





..

2011
Strictly Private & Confidential


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M: +91 9810557353; Ph: 011-40622252
Email: chander@indiacp.com



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Ref. No: CPC/MB/0/2010-11
The Board of Directors SEBI Reg. No: INM000011435
.......
For the Kind attention of Mr,
Managing Director
Dear Sir,
Sub: Valuation Analysis of the equity shares of ....... as per DFCF Methodology
We refer to our engagement letter dated . 2011 for carrying out the Valuation of Equity Shares of ....... (here-in-after referred as
Company) as per Discounted Free Cash Flow(DFCF) methodology. In accordance with the terms of the engagement, we are
enclosing our report along with this letter. In attached report, we have summarized our Valuation Analysis of the Company as at July
.. 2011 together with the description of methodologies used and limitation on our Scope of Work. This Valuation Analysis is
confidential and has been prepared exclusively for the Management of Company. It should not be used, reproduced or circulated to any
other person, in whole or in part, without the prior consent of Corporate Professionals Capital Private Limited. Such consent will only be
given after full consideration of the circumstance at the time. We are aware that the conclusion in this report may be used for the
purpose of certain statutory disclosure by Company and we provide consent for the same.
Trust the above meets your requirements.
Please feel free to contact us in case you require any additional information or clarifications.
Yours Faithfully,
For Corporate Professionals Capital Private Limited
.
[Authorized Signatory]


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Contents
Executive Summary 3

Purpose of Valuation 4

Industry Assessment 6
Company Assessment 12

Valuation Methodology, Approach and Analysis 17

Caveats 21
Annexure : Projected Financials 22









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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
....... is a company incorporated under the provisions of Indian Companies Act, 1956 and is one of the leading Indian companies in the
field of .. The Company is engaged in manufacturing ... The Company has been accredited by
ISO/TS .certification.
The Company is a Joint Venture with M/s ..of .. (here-in-after referred as Foreign Company), one of the leading .. in
the field of design, manufacturing and marketing of ..for the automotive industry. We have been informed that the foreign
company is presently having . shareholding in the Company and it has been agreed between the Companies to raise the
shareholding of the foreign company upto .
In this respect, we as a Merchant Banker have been appointed by the Company to determine the fair value of its equity shares in
accordance with the pricing norms of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ascertain the minimum price at which the equity shares of
Company can be issued and allotted to the foreign Company as per the applicable pricing methodology i.e. Discounted Free Cash
Flow.
It is pertinent to mention that the valuation of a business is not an exact science and ultimately depends upon a number of factors like
the past financials, expected financial results, industry scenario, market recognition etc. Though there are multiple valuation
methodologies, however in accordance with the requirement of the RBI Law as detailed later in this report, we have carried out this
Valuation Analysis of Company based upon Discounted Free Cash Flow Methodology.
Based on our Analysis of the Company and subject to our caveats as further detailed in this report, the fair value of equity
shares of the Company may be taken at ` .. Lacs and the value per Equity share having face value of ` .each
may be taken as `.. each.


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PURPOSE OF VALUATION
ABOUT THE TRANSACTION
Based on the discussions held with the Management of the Company, we understand that the Company is a Joint Venture with M/s
..n (here-in-after referred as Foreign Company), one of the leading .. in the field of design, manufacturing and
marketing of .. products for the automotive industry. We have further been told that the foreign company is presently having ..
shareholding in the Company and it has been agreed between the Companies to raise the shareholding of the foreign company upto
..%.
In view of above management needs to ascertain the minimum value of Company at which the Equity Shares may be issued and
allotted to foreign Company in accordance with Foreign Exchange Management (Transfer or Issue of Security by Person Resident
Outside India) Regulations, 2000 notified vide Notification No.: FEMA 20/2000- RB dated May 3, 2000, as amended from time to time.
Notification No. FEMA 205/2010-RB dated 07.04.2010 effective from 21
st
April, 2010 has provided that where the shares of an Indian
company are not listed on any recognized stock exchange in India, the price of shares issued to foreign Company shall not be less than
the fair valuation of shares done by a SEBI Registered Category I Merchant Banker or a Chartered Accountant as per the Discounted
Free Cash Flow Method (DFCF).
In this respect, we as a Merchant Banker have been appointed by the Company to determine the minimum value of its equity shares in
accordance with the pricing norms of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) over and above which the equity shares of Company can be
issued and allotted to the foreign Company.



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SCOPE OF SERVICES
This valuation report has been prepared by M/s Corporate Professionals Capital Private Limited, SEBI Registered Category I,
Merchant Banker to determine the fair value of equity shares of Company in accordance with the Discounted Free Cash Flow
Methodology.
SCOPE LIMITATION
This valuation report has been prepared on the basis of the Certified Projected Financials of the company for the next five financial
years ended March 2015 duly supplemented by its Terminal Value at end of Five Years, along with discussion held with the
management and other publically available information.
The valuation exercise was carried out under the following limitations:
The Valuation analysis of equity shares is based upon the future projections of company provided to us, which is based upon
various assumptions made by Company relating to the operations of its business and any change in these assumptions may have
an impact on the conclusion of this report.
We have not made an appraisal or independent valuation of any of the assets or liabilities of the Company and have not
conducted an audit or due diligence or reviewed/validated the financial data provided by the management.
The scope of our work has been limited both in terms of the areas of the business and operations which we have reviewed and
the extent to which we have reviewed them. There may be matters, other than those noted in this Report, which might be relevant
in the context of the transaction and which a wider scope might uncover.



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INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT
GROWTH TREND OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
1. Spectacular Growth between FY 2003 and FY 2007
The Indian Commercial Vehicle (CV) Industry witnessed Spectacular Growth between FY 2003 and FY 2007, growing at CAGR of
more than 25%. A favorable macroeconomic environment, increased industrial activity and easy financing, among other reasons,
were significant drivers of growth in domestic market.
2. Growth slowed in FY 2008 and fell in FY 2009
A Corrective period followed the five year phase that witnessed growth of more than 25%. In FY 2008 easy financing, which was a
significant growth driver, declined significantly. The interest rate began to increase, thereby impacting borrowing cost and
subsequently the total cost of ownership. With as many as 90 out of 100 vehicles being sold on finance, the liquidity crunch came as
a big blow.
The Global slowdown adversely impacted both global and domestic demand in FY 2009. Industrial activity plummeted, and GDP
Growth projections were reduced with every subsequent revision. The third quarter of FY 2009 saw the worst for the Indian
automotive Industry in recent times, with CV sales falling by 48% in domestic market. Export also slumped by 40% in the same
period.
3. A Rebound in FY 2010
Increased industrial activity in the FY 2010 along with various government benefits provided to boost sales and have yielded positive
sales. The Industry has experienced spectacular growth across all segments at an overall growth rate of 26%.


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4. Industry Future Outlook
Currently, India has lowest MHCV penetration among the BRIC economies and higher than average paved road penetration. Both
the reflective of the significant opportunity share for the CV industry in India. However, there are a fewer no. of expressways in India
as compared to its peers. This will have to be increased to boost CV industry growth.














(Source: ICRA Industry outlook)



Growth in Industrial activity and increasing road penetration are likely to lead to increased CV sales, which
are forecasted to reach 1 million units by 2020


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IMPACT ON AUTO ANCILLARY INDUSTRY
On similar lines, after witnessing strong pace of growth for many years, India's auto ancillary industry also faced a serious demand
crunch in the FY 2009. Besides sharp decline in demand, the industry faced whole range of other issues including fluctuations in foreign
exchange rates, and the drying up of liquidity in the market.
However, even as global auto industry was still facing difficulties, Indian auto makers started changing gears with the start of FY2010.
Riding on stimulus measures taken by the government, the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) witnessed improvement in
demand conditions and auto sales increased steadily in first half of FY2010. The second half has been even more bullish and most of
the auto companies have hit their record ever sales or production numbers in last couple of months. This has resulted in significant
improvement in demand side for auto part makers as well in FY2010. In fact, last few months have been so bullish for the auto industry
that the ancillary industry has nearly run out of capacity in case of many parts.
Demand Side Improves
Auto component makers have seen significant improvement in demand in the FY 2010
after facing serious depression in second half of 2008-09. The improvement has been
owing to strong auto sales riding on stimulus measures taken by the government.
Baring the medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment, all other segments started
performing right from start for the fiscal and the upward trend only gathered the
momentum month-after month. Even the commercial vehicle segment started
performing in the second half of the 2009-10 while passenger cars and two-wheelers
saw record sales as economic outlook improved and deferred demand retuned into the
market.

Growth Trend of Auto Ancillary Industry


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SITUATION OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF AUTO ANCILLARIES
Exports Remain Under Pressure
Exports constitute a key source of revenue for the Indian automotive component industry. However, right from the start of global
economic downturn, demand from the key areas like the US and EU declined sharply. Sharp contraction witnessed in the automotive
sales in these two regions, which accounts for over 65% of India's total auto part exports, was bound to have adverse impact on
component makers.
However, while there have been considerable improvements in the domestic demand conditions, exports of auto components continue
to remain under pressure despite improvement in sales seen in recent months in both the US and EU. In the first half of current fiscal,
market size of cars and light trucks contracted by 35% while the same in Europe went down by 23%. While growth has returned in both
the places in auto sales in second half, overall figure for FY2010 is expected to remain 12-14% down on y/y basis, which will also lead
to a contraction in total exports of auto parts to these regions. In the next year exports demand will start growing again, but possible
gains will be capped by potential appreciation in the Indian currency going forward.
Surging Imports a Medium Term Challenge
A major threat being faced by the Indian automotive component industry is surging imports. Indian government has been lowering the
import duty on various auto parts in line with its commitments at bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. This however has resulted
in a surge in imports, particularly from China. From about ` 30 crore in 2000, imports of Chinese made auto parts has increased to over
` 2,500 crore in 2009. Chinese products now account for 10% of the total Indian auto components market compared with just 1% in
2000.




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According to the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India
(ACMA), imports of components from China had registered a 97% compounded
annual growth rate over the past seven years. Chinese producers enjoy a number
of advantages, the biggest of them being lower wage bill and cheaper cost of steel
and power.
While the Chinese products often fail to match the quality of their Indian
counterparts, particularly in the precision parts segment, the cost advantage
enjoyed by the Chinese is likely to hurt the Indian companies if the current trend
continues. In fact the industry has been urging the government for an import duty
on Chinese components but there has been no final decision on the issue yet.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
India's auto ancillary industry is once again on growth path. After facing a difficult period in last fiscal, things have been improving in the
current year and both the OEM and replacements segments are witnessing strong demand. Going forward, as the Indian auto
sector grows, the auto ancillary sector will expand. The industry is also graduating towards the world-class technology. India is
becoming the global manufacturing hub for the small cars and the trend will certainly help boost the prospects of auto part makers.
The major issue for the industry is from export side. Export sales have been on an average around 19-20% of revenue to the auto part
industry as a whole. However, the segment witnessed contraction last year and growth is not likely to be significant this year either.
However, increased local demand and also increasing auto exports from India itself should help the industry address
slowdown in export demand for auto components.


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Increase in imports can be another challenge. Manufacturers however point out that Chinese engineering in auto parts, particularly in
precision equipment will not be able match Indian due to long experience of Indian auto ancillary players in this segment. However, the
pace of increase in imports is alarming and therefore the government may have to step in at some stage to provide a level playing field
to domestic layers.
Overall, the auto ancillary industry is now in a recovery mode. Strong demand from the OEM segment and continued expansion of the
replacement demand will provide reasonable revenue visibility going forward. Although the export segment will continue to under-
perform, this will be partly compensated with India becoming a hub for manufacturing for small cars and resulting increase in demand
from export oriented production within the country.
Year 2010 is definitely poised to be a better year for the Industry as the automotive sales volumes for the First Quarter of FY 2011
indicate. Owing to Indias low cost production capabilities, several international players have already announced their plans to
manufacture small cars in India.

(Source: Ace Equity Industry Research)


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COMPANY ASSESSMENT
.......
BASIC INFORMATION:
The Company was incorporated on under the name and style of , thereafter on it was converted into a
Public Limited Company and on the name of the Company was changed to ........ The Registered Office of the Company is
situated at ..
The company is one of the leading Indian companies in the field of manufacturing and marketing and manufacturing of equipments for
the .automotive industry. It is engaged in manufacturing for automobiles industries and Industrial
hoses. The Company has been accredited by ISO/TS 1certification.
Orginally the manufacturing Unit of the Company was set up at
...
. strength.

The Company is a Joint Venture with M/s .. (here-in-after referred as Foreign Company), one of the leading
..companies in the field of design, manufacturing and marketing of sealing products for the automotive industry. We have been
informed that the foreign company is presently having ..shareholding in the Company and it has been agreed between the
Companies to raise the shareholding of the foreign company upto With this, both the Companies intend to have access to each
others competitive strengths and the Company would get access to the passenger vehicle segment of the Auto Industry.



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CAPITAL STRUCTURE
The Capital Structure of the Company as on 31
st
March, 2010 is as under:
Amount in (` Millions)
Particulars
Provisional
31.03.2010
AUTHORIZED


ISSUED SUBSCRIBED & PAID UP
.

HISTORICAL CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT:
Amount in (` Millions)
For the Period Ended
Provisional Audited
31.3.2010 31.3.2009 31.3.2008
EBITD
Finance cost
Depreciation
Profit Before Tax
Provision For Taxes
Profit After Tax


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HISTORICAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET: Amount in (` Millions)




Particulars
Provisional Audited
31.3.2010 31.3.2009 31.3.2008
Sources of Funds
Share Capital

Reserve and Surplus Account

Secured Loans

Unsecured Loans

Total

Application of Funds

Net Fixed Assets

Net Current Assets

Miscellaneous Expenditure

Profit and Loss Account

Total



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PROJECTED BUSINESS PLAN SNAPSHOT
Based on the discussion held with the management of the company and documents provided to us, we understand the future business
plan has following key features:
1. Presently the company is catering its product only in.
2. The Company is additionally targeting the .. in future.
3. Based upon future outlook of Auto Industry, Business in the .. is expected to grow phenomenally subject to quality,
price and deliveries.
4. The plan involves serving to the big players of auto industry including etc. in India. The company has
prepared a list of are scheduled to be launched in India within the next two years
5. The Joint Venture partner .. would provide necessary technical assistance to the Company.
6. The plan involves a capex of Rs. ..lacs. This amount would be infused as Equity Capital by the Foreign partner.










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VALUATION METHODOLOGY, APPROACH AND ANALYSIS

Notification No FEMA 205/2010-RB dated 07.04.2010 effective from 21
st
April, 2010 has provided that where the shares of an Indian
company are not listed on any recognized stock exchange in India, the price of shares issued to foreign Company shall not be less than
the fair valuation of shares done by a SEBI Registered Category I Merchant Banker or a Chartered Accountant as per the Discounted
Free Cash Flow Method.
Therefore, this Valuation Analysis report is thus valuing the equity shares of the Company specifically as per the Discounted Free Cash
Flow Methodology (DFCF) only.
BASIS OF DISCOUNTED FREE CASH FLOW METHOD (DFCF):
The DFCF to equity method expresses the present value of the business attributable to equity shareholders as a function of its future
cash earnings capacity. This methodology works on the premise that the value of a business is measured in terms of future cash flow
streams, discounted to the present time at an appropriate discount rate. The value of the equity is arrived at by estimating the Free
Cash Flows (FCF) to equity and discounting the same at the cost of equity (Ke). The DFCF method using the FCF, values the benefits
that accrue to the equity shareholders of the Company. This is estimated by forecasting the free cash flows available for the company
(which are derived on the basis of likely future earnings of the companies) and discounting these cash flows to their present value at the
Ke. The DFCF methodology is considered to be the most appropriate basis for determining the earning capability of a business. It
expresses the value of a business as a function of expected future cash earnings in present value terms. The approach seeks to
measure the intrinsic ability of the business to generate cash attributable to its equity shareholders.



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In the DFCF approach, the appraiser estimates the cash flows of any business after all operating expenses, taxes, and necessary
investments in working capital and Capex is being met. Valuing equity using the free cash flow to stockholders requires estimating only
free cash flow to equity holders, after debt holders have been paid off. As this methodology is focused at Equity Shareholders so the
interest and finance charges are also deducted.
The following box provides generalized steps for using discounted cash flows to estimate the value of the equity position of a
company
STEPS FOR FINDING FCF TO VALUE EQUITY SHARES

-
Profit before tax
Taxes
Step 1:Arrive at Profit Before Tax
Step 2: Less tax.
=
+
-
-

+
Profit after tax
Non-cash costs
Capital expenditures
Increase in NCWC
Changes in Debts
Terminal Value


Step 3: Add back non-cash costs (already subtracted in step 1).
Step 4: Subtract capital expenditures.
Step 5: Subtract Increases in non cash working capital.
Step 6: Take into account the effect of changes in Debts.
Step 7: Add the terminal value accruing to equity holders in the final year.

= Free Cash Flow
= DFCF Step 8: Discount the FCF for each year at the cost of equity.
For the purpose of valuation of equity shares in this transaction through DFCF methodology, we have relied upon the projections
provided by the management for the five financial years ending March 31
st
. duly supplemented by its Terminal Value
based on the Gordon Model along with the discussions held with the management and extrapolating the free cash flows at an annual
growth rate of . percent to perpetuity. The Cost of Equity has been determined at .. per cent as per CAPM model.




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Amount in (` Millions)
.......
VALUATION AS PER DISCOUNTED FREE CASH FLOW METHODOLOGY
YEAR 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Perpetuity
PARTICULARS Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected
Operating PBT

Less: Direct Taxes Paid

PAT

Add : Depreciation

Less :Capital Expenditure
Less : Change in Non Cash Working
Capital

Add : Increase/(Decrease) in Debts

Free Cash Flows (Rs.)

Discounting Factor
Discounted Present Value of Cash
flows
Discounted Present Value of Equity
Shares

Expanded Number of Equity Shares

Present Number of Equity Shares
Equity Value Per Share at Expanded
Capital
Equity Value Per Share at Present
Capital





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Projected Balance Sheet and Profit & Loss account for the next five financial years ended March 31
st
, as certified by the
management is attached as Annexure to this report.
Projected Non operative Income and Expenses have been ignored by us in this Valuation.
Based on our Analysis of the Company and subject to our caveats as further detailed in this report, the fair value of equity
shares of the Company may be taken at ` . Lacs and the value per Equity share (after taking the proposed allotment
into account) having face value of Rs. 10 each may be taken as `.. each.















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CAVEATS
This Valuation Report has been issued on the specific request of ....... to ascertain the minimum value at which the equity shares
of Company should be issued and allotted to the foreign Company as per the Discounted Free Cash Flow Methodology. This
Report is prepared exclusively for the above stated purpose and must not be copied, disclosed or circulated or referred to in
correspondence or discussion with any other party. Neither this report nor its content may be used for any other purpose without
prior written consent of M/s Corporate Professionals Capital Private Limited.
We have summarized the Valuation Analysis of the equity shares of the Company based on the information as was provided to us
pursuant to the meetings held with the management of Company and other publically available information. We do not assume
any responsibility for the accuracy or reliability of such documents on which we have relied upon in forming our opinion.
Although every effort has been made by us to verify and corroborate each document and to ensure that no inaccurate or
misleading data, information, statement or opinion appears in this document, we wish to make it clear that the information and
data appearing herein are the responsibility of the contributors. Accordingly, we do not accept any responsibility whatsoever for
the consequences of any such inaccurate or misleading information or data, opinion or statement.
We have no present or planned future interest in ....... and the fee for this Valuation analysis is not contingent upon the values
reported herein.
The Valuation Analysis contained herein is not intended to represent the value at any time other than the date that is specifically
stated in this Report. This Report is issued on the understanding that the Management of ....... has drawn our attention to all
matters of which they are aware, which may have an impact on our report up to the date of signature. We have no responsibility
to update this report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of this Report.



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ANNEXURE : PROJECTED FINANCIALS
PROJECTED BALANCE SHEET:
Amount in (` Millions)

Particulars

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Projected
Liabilities

Equity Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Total Term Liabilities
Total

Assets
Gross Block
Accumulated Depreciation
Net Block
Net Current Assets(excluding cash and cash
equivalents)
Cash and cash equivalents
Preliminary expenses not w/off
Total









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PROJECTED PROFIT AND LOSS STATEMENT
Amount in (` Millions)
Particulars

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Projected
Net Sales


Cost of Sales

(i)
Raw materials(including stores & spares
and other items used in the process of
manufacture
(a) Imported
(b) Indigenous
(ii) Other Spares
(a) Imported
(b) Indigenous
(iii) Power & Fuel
(iv) Direct Labour (Factory wages & salary )
(v) Other manufacturing expenses
(vi) Depreciation


Sub - Total ( i to vi )
(vii) Add : Opening stocks - in - process
(viii) Deduct : Closing stick - in - process
(ix) Cost of Production
(x) Add : Opening stock of Finished goods
(xi) Deduct : Closing stock of finished goods
(xii) Sub - Total ( Total cost of Sales )
Gross Profit


Selling , General and Administrative
Expenses
Sub - Total


Operating Profit before interest



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Interest & Financial Charges


Operating Profit after interest


(I) Add other non - operative income
(a) Bank Interest
(b) Miscellaneous
(c) Liabilities written back
Sub - Total ( Income )
(ii) Deduct Other non - operative expenses
(a) Prem. Expenses written off


(b) Expenses pertaining to earlier years
deferred revenue
Sub - Total ( Expenses )
(iii) Net of other non - operating Income / Expenses


Profit before Tax / Loss


Provision for Taxes


Profit after Taxes
















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Corporate Professionals Capital Pvt. Ltd.
SEBI Registered Category I Merchant Banker
D-28, South Extension I, New Delhi-110 049
Mr. Maneesh Srivastava (Manager)
M: +91 9871026040; Ph: 011-40622255; Fax:011-40622201
E: info@corporatevaluations.in
Web: www.corporateprofessionals.com
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