The combined effects of deindustrialisation, suburbanisation, post-Soviet recomposition and demographic factors have produced a hitherto unknown model

for decline (Oswalt, 2006 ! The term shrinking cit" usuall" describes a densel" populated urban area that has on the one hand faced a population loss in large parts and is on the other hand undergoing economic transformation with some s"mptoms of a structural crisis (Shrinking #ities $nternational %esearch &etwork ! ' Shrinking #it" can be defined as a cit" that has e(perienced population loss, employment decline and social problems as s"mptoms of a structural crisis ()artine*-+ernande* et al!, forthcoming ! ,! Justin B. Hollander (2010), Can a City Successfully Shrin ! "#idence from Sur#ey $ata on %ei&hborhood 'uality, -rban 'ffairs %eview ./(, ,201,., $ata and (ethod $n conceptuali*ing decline for this research, $ borrowed from the work of 2eauregard (2000 and 3ollander et al! (2000 in defining declining simpl" in terms of net loss in population from one 'merican 3ousing Surve" period (between ,00. and ,004 and a second period (between ,00/ and 200/ ! &o surve"s were conducted fewer than four "ears apart from one another! 2ecause of limitations in using the 'merican 3ousing Surve", $ focused onl" on those metropolitan areas where at least two surve"s were conducted in the past ,5 "ears, and within the metropolitan areas $ e(amined onl" central cities!, 6emographic data on population and occupied housing change were compiled and e(amined across the 74 cities! $ focused m" investigation on population estimates and the mean score residents assigned for assessing the 8ualit" of their neighborhood! $f this stud" were concerned with the concept of neighborhood 8ualit", such an approach would be flawed because of the mismatch in scale between where residents are being asked to rate (neighborhood and the wa" the data are being aggregated and anal"*ed (cit" ! 2ut instead, this stud" is focused on the concept of happiness, and 9opinion of neighborhood 8ualit": is being used as a surrogate variable, however imperfect! This approach is well grounded in the literature on happiness, where a person ma" be asked to rate his or her relations with his or her spouse to serve as a surrogate for his or her overall happiness (+re" and Stut*er 2005 ! +or each cit", $ looked at the scores for both time periods as well as changes in population and occupied housing units! 6escriptive statistics measuring the central tendenc", range, and variation were calculated and graphed! $n addition, a difference of means test was calculated to determine, statisticall", how the group of shrinking cities differed from the group of growing cities; how much heterogeneit" e(isted among the cities! 2! $vonne 'udirac, S"lvie +ol, and #ristina )artine*-+ernande* (20,0 Shrin in& Cities in a )ime of Crisis, 2erkele" <lanning =ournal, 6epartment of #it" and %egional <lanning, -# 2erkele" S#i%& was initiated in 200. b" visiting scholars at the $nstitute of -rban and %egional 6evelopment, -niversit" of #alifornia, 2erkele"! $t is an interdisciplinar" group of urban planning academics and researchers from five continents, which conducts research on shrinking cities in a global, comparative perspective! $ts members have carried out research in the -S, )e(ico, 2ra*il, >erman", +rance, -nited ?ingdom, South ?orea, 'ustralia, and =apan! S#i%&@s <h6 'cadem" is also an international group of <h6 students whose doctoral research focuses on shrinking cities! httpsABBsites!google!comBsiteBshrinkingcitiesnetworkBpublications Berlin and *eip+i&, )-o .erman Shrin in& Cities Suburban Shrin a&e in /aris and 0sa a Oswalt <!, 2006! Shrinking Cities, Vol. 1. International Research , Ostfildern-%uit, >erman", 3atCe #ant* Derlag, p! /75! Oswalt, <! 2000! 9Shrinking #ities! 3"potheses on urban shrinking in the 2,st centur", <roCect Shrinking #ities!: 'ccessed 6ecember 25, 2000! httpABBwww!shrinkingcities!comBh"pothesen!0!htmlEFGH, <rigge I!, 2006! 9On the Origins of Shrinkage,: in Oswalt <! (ed , Shrinking Cities, Vol. 1. International Research, Ostfildern-%uit, >erman", 3atCe #ant* Derlag, .7-.4! #onversion Strategies under -ncertaint" in <ost-Socialist Shrinking #itiesA The J(ample of 6resden in Jastern >erman", Thorsten Iiechmann, #hair of %egional <lanning

2randenburg Techncial -niversit" (2T't the beginning of the 2,st centur", the shrinking cities phenomenon is widespread over Jurope! This applies to Iestern Juropean industrial agglomerations in economic decline and to peripheral, sparsel" populated areas in &orthern Jurope as well as to rural areas in Southern Jurope suffering from emigration and a rapid decrease in birth rates! Ket it is the former socialist transformation regions in #entral and Jastern Jurope that have been hit hardest b" population decrease and industrial regression since the political changes in ,000! This paper focuses on the post-socialist t"pe of shrinking cities! $t highlights the e(ample of 6resden in Jastern >erman", where the breakdown of the state-directed econom" caused economic decline, industrial regression, and high unemplo"ment rates! 6ue to out-migration and decreasing birth rates, the cit" lost 60,000 of its 500,000 residents within one decade (,040-,000 ! 's a conse8uence, too man" housing and office vacancies as well as infrastructure oversupplies plagued the cit"! Ket the administrative s"stem was still directed towards growth obCectives throughout the ,000s! 'fter 2000 this situation changed dramaticall"! The new strategic plan for 6resden (200, is no longer growth-oriented! $nstead, the plan focuses on a model of the compact 9Juropean cit",: with an attractive urban center, reduced land consumption, and a stable population! 3owever, in another une(pected turn of events, within the last seven "ears the cit" has e(perienced an une(pected growth of 25,000 residents, despite the fact that the suburban landkreise (counties are still losing population! Surprisingl", processes of suburbani*ation have turned into processes of reurbani*ation! Toda" in 6resden, areas of shrinkage and decline are in close pro(imit" to prospering and wealth" communities! The strategic challenge is to deal with this patchwork while accepting that the future remains unpredictable! 3ence, strategic fle(ibilit" becomes more important than the strateg" itself! Whats the bottom line? The description of 6resden@s development path since the political changes nearl" two decades ago demonstrates that most trends were ver" hard to predict if not completel" unforeseeable! $n the ,000s, people1particularl" politicians and plannersLwere too optimistic about the future! This reaction was b" no means e(ceptional for Juropean post-socialistic cities in the ,000s! $n practicall" ever" Jast >erman cit", local economic development was overestimated at that time! Gater on, as people focused on correcting this false estimation, nobod" in 6resden anticipated the amount of new growth that would take place after the turn of the millennium! Toda", areas of shrinkage and decline are in close pro(imit" to prospering and wealth" communities! The strategic challenge is to deal with this patchwork while accepting that the future remains unpredictable! $n shrinking cities, there is truth in the sa"ing that 9for ever" comple( problem, there is a simple solution that is wrong!: Ginear trend e(trapolation or 9business as usual: is ver" likel" to lead to counterproductive strategies! The onl" stead" trend in 6resden has been a continuing trend reversal! 3ence, strategic fle(ibilit" has become more important than the strateg" itself! #ities that are, like 6resden, characteri*ed b" manifold talents and confronted with d"namic change in their fundamental parameters within a historicall" short period of time should neither plan for growth nor for shrinkage! The" should plan to sta" fle(ible and make their cities adaptive to change! Shrin in& Cities in 1rance and .reat Britain, 2 Silent /rocess! JmmanuMle #unningham-Sabot, -niversit" of %ennes $$ )ost of the shrinking cities in +rance, however, belong to a second t"pe, which is constituted of small urban areas.! These are located in the middle of the countr", from the 'rdennes in the &orth to the <"renees in the South, passing through the )assif #entral! $n four central NregionsN5;#hampagne'rdennes, )idi-<"rOnOes, Gimousin, and 2ourgogne;more than three 8uarters of small urban areas decreased in population between ,000 and ,000 (=ulien, 2000 ! $n +rance, as well as in man" other countries, urban growth has been recentl" concentrated in litoral regions, near the borders (especiall" 'lsace and the 'lps and following important transport infrastructures! >rowing urban areas are those located in the valle"s along maCor road infrastructures (DallOes de la Goire, du %hPne, du %hin and those linked b" the T>D (%ennes, &antes, <oitiers, 2ordeau( ! On the contrar", shrinking urban areas

are those that are isolated from infrastructure networks or urban networks! )ost of them are located in the heartland of +rance! Iith the e(ception of Gondon, urban shrinkage is specific to large urban settlements (large cities and metropolitan areas while a significant growth is occurring in medium cities and towns! - Other Garge #ities (Nfreestanding citiesN such as Jdinburgh or &ottingham ! There are fourteen, their populations ranging from ,50,000 to .50,000! The" are t"picall" large industrial centers or ports, and of these fourteen large cities, eight are shrinking!

3rban Shrin a&e in Bra+il $n 2ra*il the problem of urban shrinkage does not follow the patterns found in Jurope or the -nited States! 'n unfair territorial d"namic generated b" the 2ra*ilian land oligopol", the government@s incapacit" to produce Cobs, the highl" speculative real estate market, the lack of housing subsidies for low income workers, and the inade8uate use of land policies has led to the emergence of empt" rural towns, emptied and deca"ing (or sometimes gentrified metropolitan areas, and swollen slums on metropolitan outskirts! ' recent anal"sis published b" the 2ra*ilian $nstitute of >eograph" and Statistics ($2>J shows that 2/!2Q of the 5560 municipal districts in 2ra*il (containing ,.06 cities lost population between ,00, and 2000 ($2>J 200. ! 3owever, these numbers do not impl" real socio-economic shrinkage for larger urbani*ed areas! 'lmost all (00Q of the actuall" shrinking

municipal districts have fewer than 50,000 inhabitants, and in man" of them, their urbani*ed areas have continued growing while the rural areas emptied! Conclusions +ive factors could be pointed out as the primar" reasons for the high degree of population migration in metropolitan areas of 2ra*ilA , the highl" speculative real estate marketR 2 the political and economic oligopol" that keeps for themselves urban land with infrastructure, 7 the idleness of infrastructured land in central areasR . the lack of housing subsidies for low-income residentsR 5 the lack of Cobs and infrastructured areas in close pro(imit" to low-income housing! 's a result of these trends, cit" cores have been losing population, land prices have risen and gentrification has increased, while blue-collar residents have migrated to the outskirts of the cit", illegall" occup"ing fragile environmental areas! Shrin in& Cities in the 3nited States in Historical /erspecti#e, 2 4esearch %ote %obert '! 2eauregard $n order to document and assess these relationships, $ use aggregate (and net population loss as the measure of decline and shrinkage! 'lthough population change cannot full" capture the developmental fortunes of a cit", it is a reliable indicator of the cit"@s attractiveness to investors and households as well as a direct conse8uence of economic growth! The 8uantitative evidence comes from a data set of the 50 largest -!S! cities b" population for ever" decade from ,/00 to 2000! The data set consists onl" of central cities of metropolitan areas! Thus, the anal"sis privileges the political status of and boundaries between the core cit" and its suburbs over the NnaturalN urban area! That is, it ignores the relationship between cit" growth and regional (or metropolitan growth! $ do so because, at least in the -nited States, central cities were the locus of decline in the postwar decades and are politicall" and fiscall" important in their own right! Conclusion Set in historical perspective, the current period of shrinkage is distinguishable from the earlier period of decline and an earlier period of growth as well! 3owever, the differences mainl" lie in the prevalence of population loss, less so in its severit", and not in its persistence or lack thereof! +ewer large cities cast off residents in the ,040s and ,000s, but the ones that did were, for the most part, the same ones that had declined in the previous three decades! Onl" the severit" of their losses abated! These cities, one-half of all the shrinking cities, remind us that decline endures! The countr" remains in the grip of a seemingl" diminished parasitic urbani*ation! (%enewed immigration, the shift to financial, producer, and consumer services, the build-out of peripheral areas, and a new-found interest in cit" living are all factors in this weakening! -ntil these cities begin to grow, then, an" claim that shrinkage is an aberration, and thus different from s"stemic decline, will be difficult to defend! Thus, the issue for an"one researching shrinking cities is the persistence of loss from earlier decades, not what new forces have suddenl" brought about shrinkage! The ke" 8uestion isA Ih" have these particular cities not ("et rebounded from the prior "ears of declineE "5pandin& cities, shrin in& cities, sustainable cities, challen&es, opportunities and e5amples 6$JTJ% 6 >J&S?J,,2 '%$'&J %-++ SH46%76%. C6)6"S $n 2002 the proCect NShrinking #itiesN was launched, an international research initiative aiming at anal"sing the phenomenon of declining population numbers observed in man" cities all over the world (www!shrinkingcities!com ! The proCect is financed b" the +ederal #ultural +oundation of >erman" and is carried out in close cooperation with the Geip*ig >aller" of #ontemporar" 'rt, the 2auhaus 6essau +oundation and the maga*ine achplus! +our interdisciplinar" teams are at the moment anal"sing the urban regions of 6etroit (-S' , )anchester and Giverpool (-? , $vanova (%ussia and 3alleBGeip*ig (>erman" ! 2ut these are onl" four e(amples of the large number of cities that are shrinking worldwide! +igure 2 indicates, that we are looking at a new development of global dimension! The initiative NShrinking #itiesN intends to demonstrate that in man" cases the mechanisms that cause a cit" to e(tend are outscored b" reverse trends of contraction! The reasons for cit" shrinking are

numerous! The initiative has alread" pinpointed deindustrialisation and post-socialism but man" more factors appear to stimulate cit" shrinking +or instance, it has been observed that the fertilit" rate has been dropping significantl", a phenomenon which is again linked to urbanisation and which has been confirmed in both high-income countries and low-income countries! The global mean fertilit" rate has been dropping from 5!. in ,0/0 to 2!0 in 2000! $n order to stabili*e the population of a countr" against war, famine, epidemic and disaster a birth rate of some 2!, children is needed! 'lthough this trend appears health" from the perspective of halting overpopulation, the number of people, although declining, still appears alarming! 2earing in mind the limited resources, socio-environmental crises ma" emerge, which could soon degenerate towards political conflicts and conse8uentl" lead to regional catastrophes, with all their conse8uences including war and refugee streams, which again change demographics and degrade land (>enske F 3ess-GSttich 2000 ! 8or pac a&e 1 Specification of -or in& model, $ieter 4in , 2nne&ret Haase, (atthias Bernt, *eip+i&, Helmholt+ Centre for "n#ironmental 4esearch, September 2009 'lread" throughout the whole 20th centur" up to the present da", urban shrinkage has become normal for man" (large, medium-si*ed and small cities in Jurope! %ecent studies have provided evidence for the fact that about .0 per cent of all Juropean cities T200,000 inhabitants have lost population in a short-, medium- or long-term period for different reasons (Turok and )"khnenko 200/ ! -rban shrinkage has become the focus of international research and debate, not least because of crossnational proCects (Shrinking #ities, 2002-2004 or the establishment of scholarl" networks (e!g! the 2erkele" network ! Ihen looking at the term urban shrinkage itself, it 8uickl" becomes obvious that it is difficult to define because it has no widel" accepted definition and there are also man" overlaps with other terms such as urban decline, urban deca" or urban blight (#lark ,040R #ouch et al! 2005R 2radbur" et al! ,042R >ilman 200, that were coined or that entered the debate earlier (>roUmann et al! 2004a, 454/ ! +or this reason, and the evidence of the rising importance and acceptance of the term urban shrinkage within an international framework, it is vital to elaborate a concept that draws on crossnational empirical evidence and includes various national debates! This is what the S3%$&? S)'%T proCect will endeavour to do, at least on the Juropean level and will include seven different national conte(ts!

Ho- shrin a&e and local &o#ernance are interrelated across urban "urope, a comparati#e #ie-, 6ieter %ink, 'nnegret 3aase, ?atrin >roUmann, )atthias 2ernt, #hris #ouch, )atthew #ocks, 'lberto Diolante, #aterina #ortese, <aolo #al*a 2ini, 20,,