30st July 2013

The Next Reset: U.S.-Pakistan Relations

Fresh off one overhyped achievementforcing a restart of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that have scant chance of successSecretary of State John Kerry is apparently eager to achieve any empty triumph, namely a reset of relations with Pakistan. In article previewing his trip to Pakistan this week, the Wall Street Journal writes that it provides an opportunity, U.S. and Pakistani officials said, to recast a relationship that in the past decade has been defined by massive U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan and Washingtons global antiterror campaign. The U.S. withdrawal, these officials say, will set the stage for a relationship with reduced engagement but also less rancor. Good luck with that. Granted, having fewer U.S. troops and civilians available in Afghanistan to serve as targets for Pakistan-supported terrorists will reduce a flashpoint in the relationship, but it is hard to see Washington and Islamabad finding much common ground. Their interests converge in very few areas, the biggest being the desire by both sides to prevent the Pakistani Taliban from seizing power in Islamabad, which would cut off Pakistans existing political and military class from the trough of public spending on which it has grown rich. But there is no indication that Pakistan will give up its support of the Afghan Taliban or the even more noxious Haqqani Network and other Islamist terrorist groups that are viewed by Pakistans army and its intelligence service, the ISI, as reliable proxies in Afghanistan, Kashmir, and beyond. Back in 2011 there was a rare moment of candor in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, normally wrapped in self-serving lies from both sides, when Admiral Mike Mullen, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, bitterly denounced Pakistani complicity in terror. In choosing to use violent extremism as an instrument of policy, the government of Pakistan and most especially the Pakistani Army and ISI jeopardizes not only the prospect of our strategic partnership, but also Pakistans opportunity to be a respected nation with legitimate regional influence, he told the Senate. By exporting violence, they have eroded their internal security and their position in the region. Mullen was right then and nothing has changed today. Pakistan has been happy to pocket nearly $26 billion in U.S. aid between 2002 and 2012 and in return has provided some small concessions such as allowing NATO supplies to cross its territory (with some interruptions) and allowing CIA drones to target al-Qaeda kingpins (with some limitations). But fundamentally the two countries remain far apart on major issues such as Afghanistan, where the U.S. would like to see the continuation of a pro-Western, reasonably democratic regime and the Pakistanis in all likelihood are hoping for a Taliban takeover. Kerrys visit will change nothing, no matter how many headlines it produces about a supposedly improved relationship.

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