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The GDP at the present scenario hovers around 7.9% whereas in the previous year
it was at a staggering 9.2%. Taking this into account, the GDP growth forecast has
been revised to a rate of 7.5-8%.
Inflation:
This has also shown a stark increase from 7.3% to 9% within a year.
The money supply rate has lowered to a value of 20.3% from 21.9% in the earlier
year. Further moderation is expected to lower it to 17% according to the Annual
Policy Statement of April, 2008.
The foreign exchange reserves was depleted by US$ 35.8 billion, and stood at US$
273.9 billion.
India’s financial sector has also had some indirect knock-on effects, though
indicators such as Capital adequacy, Ratio of non-performing assets and Return
on assets for commercial banks do not indicate any impending emergency.
The supply conditions in the Indian economy have shown resilience in wake of
deteriorating global macroeconomic and financial environment. Aggregate
demand conditions continue to be mainly investment driven, and has become
broad based in the second quarter.
In the rural environment, Public sector banks, Regional Rural Banks (RRB) and
Rural Cooperative Banks has been instructed by RBI to provide interest rate
subvention of 2%/annum to farmers in respect of short term production credit
upto Rs 3 lakhs. The apex bank also has taken an initiative in providing liquidity in
a tune of a sum of Rs. 25,000 crore under Agricultural Debt Waver schemes to
scheduled banks and NABARD (National Bank for Agriculture and Rural
Development).
There was an increase of 29.4% (Rs. 591,935 crores) on year-on-year basis in the
credits extended by the Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCB). The overall deposits
recorded in SCBs also increased by 21.6%, on year-on-year basis till 10 October,
2008. The year-on-year growth in total resource flow from SCBs to the
commercial sector also improved to 28.9% over and above the growth of 21.9% in
the previous year.
With respect to the daily average price of the Indian basket of crude oil, it
increased from US$ 99.4 to US$ 141.5 and later decreased dramatically to US$
74.4. Keeping in view such volatility in prices, the domestic oil companies were
permitted by RBI to hedge their freight risk with overseas exchanges/ Over the
Counter (OTC) finance.
Both imports and exports of the nation have increased in percentage term in
between April-August, 2008. In US Dollar terms, exports improved by 35.3%
whereas imports also increased by 38% than the corresponding period of the
previous year.
The equity market though has taken a beating, with the market turning bearish
and reaching levels last seen in 2005! Especially in the secondary markets, the
stocks have been volatile with large two way movements in response to largely
movements in the global equity markets. The value of the rupee has also
depreciated significantly with respect to the US Dollar.
The GDP of the country have been revised down to 7.5-8% by the apex bank in
the light of the uncertain economic outlook. The projected inflation has also been
set to 7% by end March `09.
In case of Indian economy, the resolution of the crisis of this magnitude and
complexity demands going for unconventional and swift action policy as well as
close coordination with the government.
Measures taken by RBI to curb the economic slowdown:-
Responding to the gradual stress being developed in the economy, RBI decided to
infuse confidence by releasing huge amounts of money in the system. This was
done by cutting down the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), decreasing the Bank rate,
controlling the Repo and the Reverse repo rates. RBI has ensured that the
monetary and interest rate environment optimally balances the objectives of
financial stability, price stability, inflation expectations and growth. The central
bank has decided to continue with the policy of active demand management of
liquidity through instruments like open market operations (OMO), market
stabilization schemes (MSS) and Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) to maintain
orderly financial conditions. RBI has also started taking interest to emphasize on
credit quality and credit delivery for employment intensive sectors, while
pursuing financial inclusion. Due to the uncertain and unsettled global economic
situation and its impact on the domestic economy and financial markets in
particular, RBI is continuously monitoring the situation to respond swiftly and
effectively to newer developments.
India has been definitely affected by the global economic crisis, but the apex bank
has responded timely and instantly to lessen the impact and oversee that the
growth rate is maintained. Thus, this Mid Term Review echoes the sentiment of
the new governor, Mr D Subbarao, who states that, “Learn from the economic
crisis but do not stop reforms.”