Although recentstudies havepointed tothepotential significance ofNevadas growingLatino electorate,the influenceson Latinopolitical participation inthestate remainpoorly understood.

APoliticalProfileofNevadas LatinoPopulation

DAVIDF.DAMORE,JOHNP.TUMAN,ANDMARIAJOSFLORGREDA Overthecourseofthepastdecade,NevadasLatinopopulationhasgrown appreciably.ImmigrantsfromMexicoandotherpartsofLatinAmericaaccountedfor mostofthegrowthinthestatesLatinopopulationduringthisperiod.Nevertheless, thenumberofU.S.bornandnaturalizedLatinosresidinginNevadahasalso increased,andthisgrowthhasalteredthepoliticallandscapeofthestate.Indeed,the densityofLatinosintheNevadaselectorateexpandedsteadilybetween2000and 2010(seeFigure3).Althoughrecentstudieshavepointedtothepotential significanceofNevadasgrowingLatinoelectorate,theinfluencesonLatinopolitical participationinthestateremainpoorlyunderstood.1 Inthispaper,weattempttofillthisgapbydevelopingapoliticalprofileofNevadas Latinocommunity.Webeginbyexamininghowtwoimportantelectoralinstitutions redistrictingandtermlimitsaffectedLatinorepresentationbetween2000and2013. Next,wepresentaggregatedatadetailingturnoutpatternsamongLatinovotersinthe 20002012electionsinNevada.Thethirdpartofouranalysisoffersanindividual levelexaminationofLatinoparticipationinthe2012election,includinganalysisof presidentialvotepreferencesbygender,age,education,andincome,aswellasan assessmentofthegeographyoftheLatinoelectorateinClarkCounty.Weconclude byexamininghowincreasedparticipationandmobilizationofNevadasLatino communityhasreshapedNevadaspoliticallandscape.TheAppendixprovidesan overviewofthedatasourcesusedhereincludingdiscussionsofthemethodological issuesthattheuseofthesedataraises.

TheInstitutionalContext:TheImpactofRedistrictingandTermLimits
PerhapsthemostobviousindicatoroftheincreasedelectoralweightofNevadas Latinocommunitycanbegleanedfromacomparisonofthe2001and2011 reapportionmentandredistrictingprocesses.In2001,despiteanenergeticlobbying effortbyLatinoactivistsonbehalfofthenear20%ofNevadanswhowereclassifiedas Latinobythe2000USCensus,Latinosreceivedverylittleconsiderationinthefinal mapsfortheNevadaLegislatureandU.S.HouseofRepresentativesthatwereused duringthe20022010elections.2

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Table1 LatinoCompositionofNevadasU.S.HouseDistricts District 1 2 3 4 Location Clark WashoeandRural Clark ClarkandRural

Note:DatafromUnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativesPlanSpecialMastersOctober14,2011 PopulationReport,December2011. www.leg.state.nv.us/Division/Research/Districts/Reapp/2011/Proposals/Masters/CONMastersTables.pdf

LatinoPopulation 42.77% 20.43% 15.66% 26.63%

LatinoVoting AgePopulation 36.58% 16.60% 22.93% 22.33%

Tenyearslater,however,withLatinosconstitutingapproximately26.5%ofNevadas population,partisandifferencesabouthowtoensureLatinorepresentationcaused Nevadas2011reapportionmentandredistrictingprocesstobecompletedinstate court.3Comparedtotheoutcomein2001,growthoftheLatinopopulation,andthe concentrationofthispopulationinthestatestwourbancounties(ClarkandWashoe), meantthatactorsinthe2011redistrictingprocessfacedstrongpressurestobe responsivetoNevadasLatinocommunity.

Table2 LatinoVotingAgePopulationofStateLegislativeDistricts Chamber Senate (n=21) Assembly (n=42) <15% 9 15.1%30% 7 30.1%45% 4 >45.1% 1

14

19

Note:DatafromSenatePlanSpecialMastersV2October26,2011Population,December2011 www.leg.state.nv.us/Division/Research/Districts/Reapp/2011/Proposals/Masters/SENMastersV2 1026_Tables.pdfandAssemblyPlanSpecialMastersV2October26,2011Population, www.leg.state.nv.us/Division/Research/Districts/Reapp/2011/Proposals/Masters/ASMMastersV2 1026_Tables.pdf

DatainTables1and2illustratethispoint.ThetablessummarizetheLatinopopulation shareforNevadasfourU.S.Houseandthe21Senateand42Assemblydistrictsinthe NevadaLegislatureusingdatafromthe2010U.S.Census.Thesetablesclearlyindicate thatNevadasLatinosarepositionedtoinfluencethewinnersandlosersofalarge numberofseatsintheNevadaLegislatureand,toalesserextent,outcomesinNevadas first,third,andfourthU.S.Housedistricts.

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Figure1 NumberofLatinosServingintheNevadaLegislature,20012013
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 LatinoSenators 2009 2011 2013 TotalLatinoStateLegislators LatinoAssemblyMembers

Note:DatafromtheNationalConferenceofStateLegislatures,Legislator&LegislativeStaffInformation (http://www.ncsl.org/legislatureselections.aspx?tabs=1116,113,782#782).

Anotherinstitutionalfactor,termlimits,whichwereimposedontheNevadaLegislature afterthe2009session,hasfacilitatedincreasedrepresentationofLatinointerestsinthe NevadaLegislature.AsFigure1details,priortotheimplementationoftermlimits,the numberofLatinosservingintheNevadaLegislaturewasfive.Oncetermslimitswent intoeffectanumberofveteranlegislatorswhorepresenteddistrictswithaheavy concentrationofLatinoswereprecludedfromrunningforreelectionandwerereplaced, inanumberofinstances,byLatinos,manyofwhomwerefirsttimecandidates. Asaconsequence,thenumberofLatinosservingintheNevadaLegislatureincreasedto nineduringthe2011session.Afterthe2012election,atotalofeightstatelegislators wereLatino;twoLatinosareservingintheSenate,whilesixmembersareinthe Assembly.4Inaddition,twoofNevadasconstitutionalofficesareheldbypoliticians withLatinoroots:GovernorBrianSandoval,electedin2010,andAttorneyGeneral CatherineCortezMasto,whowasfirstelectedin2006andreelectedin2010.Still,even withthisincreaseinLatinorepresentation,duringthe2013legislativesessionLatino representationlaggedsignificantlybehindpopulationshare. Moreover,onlyoneLatinopresentlyservingintheNevadaLegislaturerepresentsa districtwithaLatinovotingagepopulationthatislessthan20%.5Thus,redistricting andtermlimits,coupledwithNevadasdemographicchange,haveincreasedthe opportunitiesforLatinorepresentationinstategovernment.Yet,thenumberofLatinos electedtoofficeremainswellbelowthecommunitysshareofNevadaspopulation.

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LatinoVoterTurnout6
WhilethereelectionsofU.S.SenateMajorityLeaderHarryReidin2010andPresident BarackObamain2012demonstratedtothenationalaudiencetheimportanceofthe LatinovoteinNevada,theresultsofthesecontestswereacontinuation,ratherthanthe beginning,ofeffortstomobilizeandengagethestatesLatinocommunityinthe electoralprocess.Startinginthelate1990s,theNevadaDemocraticParty,organized labor,andcommunityorganizations(e.g.,theLatinChamberofCommerce,Hispanicsin Politics,andclubsrepresentingMexicanandLatinAmericanimmigrants)beganefforts toregisterandturnoutLatinoswhohadpreviouslybeenunengagedinpolitics. Subsequently,followingtheLasVegasimmigrationprotestsin2006,anumberofgroups insouthernNevadaattemptedtosustainthepoliticalmomentumgeneratedbythe demonstrationsbyurgingLatinoswhowereeligibletoregisterandvote.7 Figure2 ExitPollEstimatesoftheRacialandEthnicCompositionoftheNevadaElectorate, 20002012
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2002 2004
Latino Black

2006
White

2008
Other

2010

2012

Note:DatafromtheVoterNewsService(2000and2002)andNationalElectionPoolExitPolls(2004 2012)forNevada.

ThedatainFigure2,whichsummarizetheracialandethniccomponentsoftheNevada electorateusingdatafromthe20002012exitpolls,indicatethattheresultofthese effortswasagradualincreaseintheLatinoshareoftheelectorate.Between2000and 2012,theportionoftheNevadaelectoratethatselfidentifiedasLatinoincreasedfrom 12%in2000to18%to2012.

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Commensuratewiththisincrease,aswellasincreasedturnoutamongotherminority groups,thewhiteshareofthevoteinNevadadecreasedfrom80%in2000to64%in 2012.

Figure3 CurrentPopulationSurveyEstimatesofLatinoElectoralParticipation 20002012

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 AgeEligibleShare AgeEligibleTurnout AgeEligibleRegistered ShareofElectorate RegisteredTurnout

Note:Datafromthe2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,and2012CurrentPopulationSurveyadminstered bytheBureauofLaborStatisticsandtheCensusBureau(http://www.census.gov/cps/)

Tobesure,thegrowthinthesizeoftheLatinoelectorateisnotable.However,asthe datapresentedinFigures3and4suggest,despitetheseincreases,thereisalarge reservoirofuntappedLatinovoters.Specifically,Figure3usesdatafromtheelection yearCurrentPopulationSurveystoestimateanumberofindicatorsofLatinoelectoral participation:theLatinoshareoftheageeligiblepopulation(darkblueline);Latino registrationandturnoutrelativetoageeligiblepopulation(redandpurplelines respectively);turnoutamongregisteredLatinos(greenline);andtheLatinoshareofthe electorate(lightblueline). AsthegreenlineinFigure3indicates,Latinoswhoregisteredtovoteturnedoutatrates rangingfrom54%in2006toaremarkable91%in2008.Whilethesevaluesofferan optimisticviewofLatinoelectoralparticipation,theyaresomewhatmisleadingasthey onlyconsiderturnoutamongregisteredvoters.Inspectionoftheredline,which estimatestheshareofageeligibleLatinoswhoregisteredtovote,suggeststhat registrationamongeligibleLatinosexceeded50%forthe2004,2008,and2012 presidentialelections,butismuchlowerforthemidtermelections. Asaconsequence,theageeligibleturnout(thepurpleline)rangesfromalowof23%in 2002toahighof52%in2008and2012.Orputdifferently,inonlytwoofthelastsix electionsdidmorethanhalfofNevadasageeligibleLatinosvote.

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Thebottomtwolines,whichcapturetheLatinoageeligiblepopulation(darkblueline) andtheshareoftheoverallelectoratethatwasLatino(lightblueline),indicatethat Latinoturnoutlagsbehindpopulationshare inthemidtermelectionsbutnarrowsfor presidentialelections.

Figure4 DifferenceBetweenVoteShareandAgeEligibleSharebyRace,20002012
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 White Black Asian Latino White Black Asian Latino White Black Asian Latino White Black Asian Latino White Black Asian Latino White Black Asian Latino 2010 White Black Asian Latino 2012

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Note: Data from the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012 Current Population Survey administered bytheBureauofLaborStatisticsandtheCensusBureau(http://www.census.gov/cps/).

Tofurtherassessthesedynamics,Figure4comparesthedifferencebetweentheshare oftheelectorateandtheageeligiblepopulationforwhites,blacks,Asians,andLatinos forthe20002012electionsusingtheCurrentPopulationSurveydata.Thesedataallow ustogaugethedegreetowhichdifferentracialandethnicgroupsvoterelativetotheir populationshares.Consistentwithnationalpatterns,Figure4makesclearthat,on average,whitesconstitute7%moreoftheNevadaelectoratethantheirshareofthe populationowingtotheirhigherregistrationandturnoutlevelsrelativetononwhites, particularlyduringmidtermelections.Incontrast,formostoftheelectionsexamined here,theparticipationofblacks,Asians,andLatinoslagsrelativetoeachgroupsshare ofthevotingagepopulation.However,thesedifferencesdecreaseduringpresidential electionsandinthe2012election,blacksandAsiansvotedatlevelsequivalenttotheir shareofthestatespopulation,whiletheLatinovotelaggedlessthan2%behindthe Latinopopulationshare.

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 Thus,thedegreetowhichthepreferencesofwhitevotersdifferfromthoseofother racialandethnicgroupsmeansthatwhitevotersareexertingoutsizedinfluenceon electoraloutcomesinNevada,particularlyduringmidtermelections,evenasthewhite shareoftheelectoratedecreases.

The2012Election:TakingaCloserLook
ThediscussionpresentedaboveallowsustoassessthecontoursofNevadasLatino politicalparticipationinbroadstrokes.Lackingfromthisanalysis,however,isanysense ofindividualleveldifferenceinLatinoelectoralparticipationinNevada.Fortunately,for the2012electionweareabletoanalyzeindividuallevelsurveydatafromtheNevada subsampleoftheimpreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePoll,whichsurveyed400 LatinosinNevadawhoeithervotedearlyorindicatedthattheyweresuretovoteon ElectionDay,tomorefinelyparsevariationintheLatinovote. WebeginbyconsideringthepartisanselfidentificationofLatinoswhovoted(orwere likelytovote)inNevadaduringthe2012presidentialelection(seeFigure5).Twothirds ofthesamplereportedthattheygenerallythinkofthemselvesasDemocratscompared to16%selfidentifyingasRepublicans.AlsonotethatLatinovotersweremorelikelyto identifyaseithernonpartisansorwithaminorpartyascomparedtoidentifyingwiththe GOP.Notsurprisingly,theDemocraticregistrationadvantagetranslatedintosignificant supportforPresidentObamainNovemberasObamawonthevotesof80%ofNevadas Latinos(including27%ofselfidentifiedRepublicans)ascomparedto17%forRomney. Moregenerally,asFigure5makesclear,acrosseverysubcategory,Obamawon comfortably.OfparticularnoteisthenearequivalentsupportforObamaamongmale andfemaleLatinos.WhereaspollingconductedbyLatinoDecisionsinJuneandOctober suggestedasmallgendergap,thisdidnotcometofruitioninNovember. ThevotedistributionsforincomeandeducationhighlightthePresidentsoverwhelming supportamonglowerincomeandlesseducatedLatinos.Perhapstheonebitofgood newsfortheRepublicanscanbefoundamonghigherincomeLatinos.8WhileObama woneveryincomecategory,hismargindecreasedamongthosewithfamilyincomes greaterthan$60,000.UnfortunatelyfortheRepublicans,justover20%ofNevada Latinoswhovotedin2012hadhouseholdincomesabovethatlevel.Romneysvote sharealsoincreasedamongthe36%oftheLatinoelectoratewithsomeposthighschool education. Lastly,Figure5suggeststroublinglongtermprospectsfortheRepublicanPartyin Nevada.Latinoswhowere29yearsoldoryoungerweretheleastlikelytosupport Romneyamongallagegroups.Moreover,notonlydidthiscohortconstitutenearlya quarteroftheLatinoelectorate,thesevoterswereoverfiveandhalftimesaslikelyto identifythemselvesasDemocratsasopposedtoRepublicans.Thepatternsareeven morelopsidedforfirsttimevoters,whoaccountedfor40%ofthe2012Latinoturnout inNevada.ThesevoterssupportedPresidentObamaata90%clipandweremorethan

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ninetimesmorelikelytoselfidentifyasDemocratsasopposedtoRepublicans. Figure5 VariationinthePresidentialVoteamongNevadaLatinos,2012

Total Democrat(66%) Party Republican(16%) Other(18%) Male(49%) Female(51%) <$20,000(20%) $20,000to<$40,000(24%) $40,000to<$60,000(15%) Income $60,000to<$80,000(9%) $90,000to<$100,000(6%) $100,000to<$150,000(4%) >$150,000(3%) Grades18(8%) SomeHighSchool(13%) Education HighSchoolGraduate(38%) SomeCollege/Tech.School(17%) CollegeGradaute(13%) PostGraduateEducation(6%) 18to29(23%) 30to44(39%) Age 45to64(27%) 65andolder(11%) Vote History FirstTimeVoter(40%) NotFirstTimeVoter(60%)
Obama
Note:DatafromtheNevadasubsampleoftheimpreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePoll

80 95 27 71 79 81 93 88 88 54 60 64 54 98 88 79 72 75 75 83 79 80 74 90 74
Romney Other

17

3 41

68 25 16 18

5 4 5 1 7 12 12 37 38 27 43 9 3 2 12 18 22 21 24 9 19 20 24 2 8 2 23 3 8 2 3 6 4 1 9 2

Gender

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Figure6 VotingAgePopulationandVoterTurnoutinClarkCountyAssemblyDistricts, 2012

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 Inthinkingaboutthelongtermimplicationsoftheseresults,itisworthrecallingthatin 2011approximately48%ofallLatinosinNevadawere24yearsoldoryounger(and86% ofthisagegroupwasbornintheU.S.).9IfyoungerLatinoscontinuetoshowsucha strongpreferencefortheDemocraticParty,Republicanswillfaceanincreasingly challengingenvironmentasgreaternumbersofyoungLatinosenterNevadas electorate. WhereasthedatapresentedinFigure5offersinsightintovariationinthevoting preferencesoftheLatinoelectorate,Figures6and7capturesthegeographyofthe2012 LatinovoteinsouthernNevada,whichishometoroughly80%ofNevadasLatino population.Specifically,eachfiguremapstheshareoftheLatinovotingagepopulation andtheLatinoturnoutineachAssembly(Figure6)andstateSenate(Figure7)districtin ClarkCounty.Inspectionofthesefiguresrevealsaninterestingdynamic:inareaswith highconcentrationofvotingageLatinos(thedarkshadeddistrictsinthetoppanelsof Figures6and7),turnoutislow(thelightshadeddistrictsinthebottompanelsofFigures 6and7),whileinareaswithlowconcentrationsofvotingageLatinos(thelightshaded districtsinthetoppanelsofFigures6and7),turnoutismuchhigher(thedarkshaded districtsinthebottompanelsofFigures6and7). Assuch,thesedatasuggesttwoimportantaspectsofLatinopoliticalparticipationin Nevada.First,patternsofLatinoturnoutaresimilartootherracialandethnicgroups. Thatis,assumingthatareasintheurbancorewithhighconcentrationsofvotingage LatinostendtobepopulatedbylowersocioeconomicstatusLatinosandthesuburbs tendtobehometohighersocioeconomicLatinosthennotsurprisinglywefind,allelse equal,significantlyhigherLatinoturnoutinthesuburbs.Second,thefiguresreiterate thepointmadeabovethateventhoughelectoralparticipationamongNevadasLatino populationhasincreasedinrecentelections,asignificantshareoftheageeligibleLatino population,particularlyinareaswithhighconcentrationsofLatinos,remainsuntapped. CollectivelythenthedatapresentedinFigures5,6,and,7allowustodeterminethe variationinparticipationacrossanumberofdemographicandgeographicvariables. Yet,thesedatadonotexplainwhyPresidentObamawonthevotesofsomanyNevada Latinos. ThedatapresentedinFigures8,9,and10providesomeunderstandingofthedriversof theLatinovote.WebeginbyconsideringthedegreetowhichObamaandRomneywere perceivedascaringabouttheLatinocommunity.Specifically,thetoppanelofFigure8 summarizestheresponsestotwoquestionsrelevanttothispoint.10

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Figure7 VotingAgePopulationandVoterTurnoutinClarkCountySenateDistricts,2012

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11

 Figure8 PerceptionsofObamaandRomneysAttitudestowardstheLatinoCommunityand ImpactofImmigrationRelatedIssuesonEnthusiasmforObamaandRomney amongNevadaLatinoVoters,2012

ImpactofDHSActionand"SelfDeport" Moreenthusiastic Lessenthusiastic Havenoeffect Don'tknow 6 5 5 28 26 9 61

61

AttitudesTowardsLatino Community

Trulycares Didn'tcaremuch Wasbeinghostile Don'tknow 6 6

12 18 60

68

19 9
Obama Romney

Note:DatafromtheNevadasubsampleoftheimpreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePoll.

ThefirstasksifObamasdecisioninJunetostoptheDepartmentofHomelandSecurity (DHS)fromdeportingundocumentedyouthwhoattendcollegeorserveinthemilitary andprovidethemwitharenewableworkpermitmaderespondentsmoreorless enthusiasticaboutObama.ThesecondassessesifRomneysstatementthatimmigrants whocannotlegallyworkintheUnitedStateshouldselfdeportaffectedvoters enthusiasmforRomney.ObamasDHSactionwasquitepopularamongLatinovotersas 61%ofthesampleindicatedthatthedecisionmadethemmoreenthusiasticabout Obama.Incontrast,thesameshareofrespondentssuggestedthatRomneysadvocacy forselfdeportationmadethemlessenthusiasticabouthiscandidacy.Notsurprisingly andasissummarizedinthebottompanelofFigure8,nearlyfouroutoffiveLatino votersinNevadasawRomneyaseitheruncaringorhostiletotheLatinocommunity.

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Onlyspendingcuts 15 Raisingtaxesonthewealthy 36 Spendingcutsandtaxincreases 44 None of these 1 Somethingelse 1 Don'tknow 3 Leftalone Repeal 21 Noneofthese 3 Somethingelse 1 Dontknow 12 Governmentshouldensure Peopleshouldgettheirown 32 None of these 2 Somethingelse 1 Don'tknow 1 Note:DatafromtheNevadasubsampleoftheimpreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePoll.

Figure9 PolicyPreferencesofNevadaLatinoVotersforSelectiveIssues,2012

DeficitReduction

63

Obamacare

64

Healthcare

Just12%respondedthatRomneytrulycaredabouttheLatinocommunity.Incontrast, 68%ofvotersperceivedObamaascaring,with18%respondingthatthePresidentdid notcaremuch,andonly6%feltthatObamawashostile. SowhileRomneydidhimselfnofavorsamongLatinovotersinNevada,thereisalso ampleevidencethattheRepublicanPartyisoutofstepwiththepreferenceofthe Latinocommunity.Figures9summarizesrespectivelyNevadaLatinospreferencesfor deficitreduction,repealingthePatientProtectionandAffordableCareAct(e.g., Obamacare),andtheroleofgovernmentinprovidingaccesstohealthcare.Forall threepolicies,thevastmajorityofNevadaLatinosholdattitudesthatareinconsistent withthepoliciesadvocatedbytheRepublicanParty. Intermsofdeficitreduction,just15%supportasolutionthatreliesexclusivelyon spendingcuts,while36%favorclosingthedeficitbyraisingtaxonthewealthyand44% preferacombinationofspendingcutsandtaxincreases;thepositionObamaadvocated duringthecampaign.ThePatientProtectionandAffordableCareActisoverwhelmingly popularamongNevadaLatinosas63%indicatedthattheywantthelawleftasisand only21%favoritsrepeal. BrookingsMountainWest|June2013 13

Figure10 PerceptionsoftheMostImportantProblemFacingtheLatinoCommunityamong NevadaLatinoVoters,2012

Createjobs/fixeconomy 51

Immigrationreform/DREAMAct

43

Educationreform/schools

23

Healthcare

12

Addresstaxes

Familyvalues

Note:DatafromtheNevadasubsampleoftheimpreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePoll.

Also,asissuggestedbyFigure9,twiceasmanyNevadaLatinossupportaroleforthe federalgovernmentinensuringuniversalaccesstohealthinsuranceascomparedto makingindividualsresponsibleforgettingtheirownhealthinsurance. Throughoutthe2012electioncycle,acommonRepublicanrefrainwasthatLatinosarea naturalconsistencyfortheGOPgiventhepartyseconomicmessagesanditsfamily valuesagenda(i.e.,oppositiontoabortionandgaymarriage).AtleastinNevada,there islittleevidencetosupporttheseclaims.Specifically,Figure10summarizesthe responsestoanopenendedquestionassessingtheissuesthatLatinovotersthought werethemostimportantfortheircommunity. Notsurprisingly,economicissuesandjobcreationweretheprimaryconcernofLatino voters,followedbyimmigrationreformandpassageoftheDREAMAct,andimproving education,whilehealthcarewasadistantfourth.Amongvoterswhoidentifiedthe economyandjobsasthemostimportantissue,over77%votedforObama.Obamas voteshareincreasedto87%forthosewhoidentifiedimmigrationandpassageofthe DREAMActastheLatinocommunitysmostimportantissueand92%forvoters concernedabouteducationandschools.Alsonotehowlittleresonancethatfamily values(1%)andtaxes(0%)haveaspoliticalissuesforNevadaLatinos.Beyondthese results,thereislittleevidencethatpartiesemphasizingsocialissueswillbemore successfulamongLatinAmericanimmigrantswhomightbecomenaturalizedcitizens. 14 BrookingsMountainWest|June2013

Forexample,datafromtheLatinoNationalSurveyindicatedthatonly1%ofLatin AmericanimmigrantsresidinginNevadafeltthatfamilyvalues/moralitywasthemost importantissuefacingtheLatinocommunity.Significantly,inthesamesurvey,no immigrantrespondentsratedabortionasthemostimportantissue.11 Insum,baseduponanalysisofsurveydatafromthe2012electionitappearsthatwithin NevadasLatinocommunitytherearefewifanysubpopulationswheretheRepublican Partyhasmuchtraction.MuchoftheRepublicanPartysstruggleswithLatinovotersin NevadastemsfromtheinconsistencybetweentheGOPspolicyagendaandthe preferencesofmostLatinovotersinthestateandtheperceivedinsensitivityofthe 2012Republicanpresidentialnominee,MittRomney,towardsthestatesLatino community.

DiscussionandConclusion
TheaboveanalysishasofferedaprofileoftheLatinoelectorateinNevada.Theoverall picturethatemergesisofavotinggroupwhoseparticipationhasgraduallyincreased overthecourseofrecentelections.Yet,despitethesegains,thereremainsasignificant segmentofNevadasLatinopopulationthatremainsuninvolvedinthepoliticalprocess. WithrespecttotherepresentationofLatinointerestsinNevadasgoverning institutions,thenumberofLatinoselectedtopublicofficehasincreasedinrecent electioncycles.However,muchoftheincreasehasbeenlimitedtotheNevada LegislatureaspresentlytherearenoLatinosservingonthepowerfulClarkCounty Commission,theBoardofRegents,theClarkCountySchoolDistrict,andthereareonly twoLatinosservingonthecitycouncilsforthestatesthreelargestcities,LasVegas, Henderson,andNorthLasVegasallofwhicharelocatedinsouthernNevada. Atthesametime,asaconsequenceofthegrowthoftheLatinocommunityandthe outcomesofthe2011reapportionmentandredistrictingprocess,withadditional electoralparticipation,Latinosarepositionedtoaffectelectoraloutcomesupanddown theballot.Thus,regardlessoftheirrace,ethnicity,orpartisanship,candidates competingformanylocal,state,andfederalelectivepositionswillneedtobe responsivetoLatinointerestsiftheyhopetowinandholdoffice.Moreover,the continueddevelopmentofaLatinopoliticalinfrastructurethatisdistinctfromthe NevadaDemocraticPartyandtheservicebasedunions(e.g.,SEIUandtheCulinary UnionLocal226)isproducinganewgenerationofLatinoleaderswhoarelikelytorun forelectiveofficesinthenearfuture. Thus,whileLatinopoliticaldevelopmentinNevadahasyettobefullyrealized,thereare clearindicationsthatincreasedparticipationtodatehashadsignificanteffectson Nevadaspoliticalenvironment,particularlyinstatewideraces.Mostnotably,Nevadais oneoffourstates(alongwithColorado,Florida,andNewMexico)in2012wherethe LatinovotetippedtheoutcomeforPresidentObama.12ItisalsounlikelythatU.S. SenateMajorityLeaderHarryReidwouldhavebeenreelectedin2010withoutstrong Latinoturnout.13

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15

Figure11 MotivationforVotingamongNevadaLatinoVoters,2012

40

13

39

Imvotingin2012becauseIwantedtosupportthe
Note:DatafromtheNevadasubsampleoftheimpreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePoll.

Assuch,itcanbesafelyarguedthatmuchofNevadasDemocratictiltduringtheprior decadehasbeendrivenprimarilybytheLatinovote. This,however,doesnotmeanthatLatinosinNevadawillcontinuetosupport DemocraticcandidatesatthelevelsenjoyedbyReidandObamainfutureelections. Indeed,asisdetailedinFigure11,oneofthemostinstructivefindingsfromthe impreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePollisthatwhile40%ofLatinovotersin Nevadaindicatedthattheyweremotivatedtoturnoutin2012tosupportDemocrats (13%votedtosupporttheRepublicans),anearequalshare(39%)respondedthatthey votedtosupporttheLatinocommunity.ThissuggestsanopportunityfortheRepublican Partyprovidedthatitcanmoreclearlyalignitsrhetoricandpolicyagenda,startingwith supportforcomprehensiveimmigrationreformthatincludesapathwaytocitizenship, withthevaluesandprioritiesofNevadasLatinocommunity.However,asNevadas demographycontinuestoshiftandLatinovoters,particularlytheimmenseunderthirty heavilyDemocraticcohort,becomemoreengagedinpolitics,theGOPswindowof opportunity,andbyextensionitsabilitytocompeteinNevada,mayberapidlyclosing.

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AppendixofDataSources
Intheanalysispresentedhere,weemploydatafromanumberofsources.Thebenefit ofdoingsoisthatweareabletocaptureanumberofdimensionsofLatinopolitical behaviorovertimeandatdifferentlevelsofanalysis.Thedownsideisthatmanyof thesedatasourceraisemethodologicalissuesowingtoconcernsabouttheirabilityto measurethebehaviorofarepresentativecrosssectionofNevadasLatinopopulation. Inparticular,evidencefrom2012inNevadaandnationallyforpriorcyclesrevealsthat attemptstoassessthepreferencesofLatinovotersconsistentlyundersamplesegments oftheLatinopopulationthatarethemostDemocraticleaning(e.g.,youngandfirsttime votersandlesseducatedandpoorerLatinos).14Inwhatfollows,wedetailsomeofthe specificissuessurroundingthedatasourcesusedinouranalysis. ExitPolls ToestimatetheLatinoshareoftheNevadaelectorate(seeFigure2)weusedatafrom theVoterNewsService(2000and2002)andNationalElectionPoolExitPolls(2004 2012)forNevada.Themainconcernwiththesedataistheirabilitytoestimatethevote preferencesoftheLatinoelectorate.15However,becauseweusethesedatatoassess theshareoftheNevadaelectoratethatwasLatino,asopposedtothevotechoiceof Latinovoters,thisissuehaslessbearingonouranalysis.Amoresignificantconcernis thatexitpollingdoesnotsurveyvoterswhocasttheirballotsearly;anincreasingly commonphenomenoninNevada.Thus,thedegreetowhichthedemographic characteristicsofearlyvotersdifferfromElectionDayvoterscouldbeasourceoferror inestimatingtheracialandethniccompositionoftheNevadaelectorate. CurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS) TheCPSisamonthly,nationalsurveyconductedbytheCensusBureauthatyieldsa sampleof50,000occupiedhouseholds.Thesurveyisadministeredusinginpersonand telephoneinterviews.Eachstatesampleisconductedindependentlyandresultsare weightedtoreflectupdatedcensusestimates.BecausetheCPSusesprobability samplingtoselectrespondents,theestimatesitprovidesaresubjecttosampling variation.Unfortunately,theerrormarginsfortheCPSestimatescanbequitelarge, particularlyforminoritygroups.Thus,thedatapresentedinFigures3and4shouldbe interpretedcautiouslygiventhelargeconfidenceintervalsforsomeoftheseestimates. TheimpreMedia/LatinoDecisionsElectionEvePoll Muchoftheanalysispresentedinthethirdsectionabove(The2012Election:Takinga CloserLook)usesdatafromasurveyconductedinthedaysleadinguptothe2012 electionandincludesresponsesfrom400LatinovotersinNevadawhohadeithervoted earlyorreportedthattheywerecertaintovoteonElectionDay.Thepollsmarginof erroris4.9%.Respondentswereselectedbaseduponthreesourcesofinformation: Latinosurnamesgleanedfromvoterregistrationdata;U.S.Censusdatacapturingthe geographyofNevadasLatinopopulation;andconsumerinformationsuchasmagazine subscriptions.SurveyswereconductedinbothEnglishandSpanishusingcellphones andlandlines.Theendresultisthatthesurveycontainsarepresentativecrosssection ofNevadasLatinopopulationincludingsubgroupsofLatinovoters(e.g.,firsttime BrookingsMountainWest|June2013 17

votersandlowersocioeconomicLatinos)whoareoftenomittedfromelectionpolling conductedinNevada. LatinoVoterTurnoutinClarkCounty ThevoterturnoutdataareprovidedbytheClarkCountyElectionsDepartmentand consistofaLatinosurnamesearchofregisteredvoterswhovotedintheNovember 2012election.BecausethesedataareavailableonlyforClarkCounty,weareunableto analyzeLatinoturnoutintherestofthestate.Themajorlimitationassociatedwith thesedataistheyrelyonsurnamestoidentifyLatinovoters.Becauseroughly80%of Latinoscanbeidentifiedinthismanner,thesedataarelikelytounderestimateLatino turnout.

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ENDNOTES
1

See,forexample,WilliamH.Frey,Hispanics,RaceandtheChangingPoliticalLandscapeofthe UnitedStatesandtheMountainWest,inRuyTeixeira(ed.)America'sNewSwingRegion,Washington, DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress,2012,82106. 2 Foranextendeddiscussion,seeDavidF.Damore,The2001NevadaRedistrictingandPerpetuation oftheStatusQuo,AmericanReviewofPolitics,Vol.27Summer(2006):149168. 3 SeeDavidF.Damore,SlowingtheTide:PartisanGridlockandthe2011NevadaRedistricting,inThe PoliticalBattleoverCongressionalRedistricting,eds.WilliamJ.MillerandJeremyD.Walling.Lanham, MD:LexingtonBooks,forthcoming. 4 WiththeexpulsionofStevenBrooksfromtheNevadaLegislatureonMarch28,2013thenumberof LatinosservingintheAssemblywasreducedbyone. 5 AssemblyDistrict27inWashoeCounty,whichhasaLatinovotingagepopulationof19%,is representedbyDemocratTeresaBenitezThompson. 6 SeetheAppendixformethodologicallimitationsassociatedwiththedatausedinthissection. 7 SeeJohnP.Tuman,LatinAmericanMigrantsintheLasVegasValley:CivicEngagementandPolitical Participation,Washington,DC:WoodrowWilsonInternationalCenterforScholars,2009,1415;John P.TumanandDawnGearhart,TheGuatemalans,inMorePeoplesfromLasVegas:OneCity,Many Faces,eds.JerrySimichandTomWright,Reno:UniversityofNevadaPress,2010,213230;andXochitl Bada,JonathanFox,andRobertDonnellyContextMatters:LatinoImmigrantCivicandPolitical ParticipationinNineCities,Washington,D.C.WoodrowWilsonInternationalCenterforScholars,2010, 5759. 8 Notethat20%ofthesampleeitherdidnotknoworrefusedtoreporttheirhouseholdincome. 9 CalculatedfromtheU.S.CensusBureau,2011AmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS),1yearEstimates. FileS0506.SelectedCharacteristicsoftheForeignBornPopulationbyRegionandBirth:Latin America.Geography:Nevada,andFileB010011,SexbyAge(HispanicorLatino).Geography: Nevadahttp://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk, accessedFebruary22,2013.NotethatalthoughtheACSdatadoesincludedatafortheLatino populationaged29andyounger,theydonotincludeanestimateoftheforeignbornLatino populationbetweentheagesof25and29(theyreportforeignbornLatinosbetweentheagesof25 and44).Asaresult,weusethe24andunderdataherebecauseitallowsustoadjustforimmigration. 10 Notethatforthesequestions,thesamplewassplitinhalfsothat200respondentswereaskedthe ObamaDHSquestionand200respondentswereaskedtheRomneyselfdeportquestion. 11 Althoughslightlydated,the2006LatinoNationalSurvey,whichincludedarepresentativesampleof immigrantsintheU.S.andinNevada,remainsoneofthebestsourcesforimmigrantattitudes.See LuisFragaetal.,LatinoNationalSurvey(2006),ICPSRmachinereadabledataset.Whileattitudes

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towardabortionandothersocialissuesremainconservativeinLatinAmerica,attitudesarechanging. ForsomediscussiononMexico,seeJohnP.Tuman,DanielleRothJohnson,andTedJelen,Conscience andContext:AttitudestowardAbortioninMexico,SocialScienceQuarterly94,no.1(2013):100112. 12 LatinoDecisionsestimatesthatwithouttakingintoconsiderationtheLatinovote,PresidentObama trailedMittRomneybyfourpointsinNevada(seeMattBarreto,ComprehensiveImmigrationReform andWinningtheLatinoVote,TheLatinoDecisionsBlog,http://www.latinodecisions.com/ files/2813/6250/5298/Immigration_refom_March5_Final.pdf,accessedMarch18,2012). 13 SeeMattBarreto,ProvingtheExitPollsWrongHarryReidDidWinover90%oftheLatinoVote, TheLatinoDecisionsBlog,http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/15/provingtheexitpolls wrongharryreiddidwinover90ofthelatinovote/,accessedMarch18,2013andDavidF.Damore Reidvs.AngleinNevadasSenateRace:HarryHoudiniEscapestheWave,inCasesinCongressional Campaigns:StormingtheHill,2nded.,eds.DavidDulioandRandallAdkins,NewYork:Routledge,2011, 3253. 14 SeeDavidF.Damore,NevadasOddNumbers:TheComplexityofPollingtheSilverState,The LatinoDecisionsBlog,http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/11/21/nevadasoddnumbersthe complexityofpollingthesilversate/,accessedMarch18,2013andGarySegura,HowtheExitPolls MisrepresentLatinoVoters,andBadly,TheLatinoDecisionsBlog,http://www.latinodecisions.com /blog/2012/11/01/howtheexitpollsmisrepresentlatinovotersandbadly/,accessedMarch18,2013. 15 SeeDavidLeal,MattBarreto,JonghoLee,andRodolfodelaGarza,TheLatinoVoteinthe2004 Election,PS:PoliticalScience&Politics,38January(2005):4149.

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BrookingsMountainWest
Establishedin2009asapartnershipbetween theBrookingsInstitutionandtheUniversityof Nevada,LasVegas(UNLV),BrookingsMountain West(BMW)seekstobringhighquality independentandinfluentialpublicpolicy researchtothecriticalissuesfacingthe dynamicmetropolitanareasoftheMountain Westregion.Inthis,thenewinitiativebuilds upontheworkofBrookingsMetropolitan PolicyProgram,whichfocusesonhelping metropolitanareasgrowinrobust,inclusive, andsustainablewaysthroughattentiontothe fundamentaldriversofprosperitysuchas innovation,infrastructure,humancapital,and qualityofplace,aswellasregionalgovernance. Alongthoselines,BMW,alongwithpartners throughouttheMountainWest,takesadeep interestinsuchareasasinfrastructure improvement,economicgrowth,demographic change,environmentalimpact,alternative energy,andrealestateinvestment.Asthe MountainWestemergesasanewAmerican Heartland,itwillplayanincreasinglysignificant roleinshapingnationalpolicydiscussions. BMWprovidesaforumforthisdialogueand offersknowledgebasedpolicysolutionstohelp improvethequalityoflifeintheWest. Learnmoreat: http://brookingsmtnwest.unlv.edu/

AbouttheAuthors
DavidF.Damore,AssociateProfessor, DepartmentofPoliticalScience,Universityof Nevada,LasVegasisaNonresidentSenior FellowinGovernanceStudiesattheBrookings Institution.Heisalsodevelopingcurriculumfor therecentlycreatedBrookingsMinorinPublic Policyofferedincoordinationwiththe BrookingsMountainWest.Dr.Damores researchinterestsarethestudyofcampaigns andelectionsandpublicpolicyatthestateand nationallevels.Dr.DamoreearnedhisPh.D. fromtheUniversityofCalifornia,Davis(2000), hisM.A.fromtheUniversityofGeorgia(1995), andhisB.A.fromtheUniversityofCalifornia, SanDiego(1992)allinPoliticalScience. JohnP.Tuman(Ph.D.,UniversityofCalifornia; LosAngeles;M.A.,UniversityofChicago;B.A., UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley)isChairand AssociateProfessor,DepartmentofPolitical Science;Chair,LatinAmericanStudiesProgram Committee;andDirector,InstituteforLatin AmericanStudies,UniversityofNevada,Las Vegas.HeistheauthorofReshapingtheNorth AmericanAutomobileIndustry:Restructuring, CorporatismandUnionDemocracyinMexico (Routledge/Continuum,2003),TheNorth AmericanAutoIndustryBeyondNAFTA: ProductivityandIndustrialRelations(Centerfor Strategic&InternationalStudies,2000),and LatinAmericanMigrantsintheLasVegas Valley:CivicEngagementandPolitical Participation(WoodrowWilsonInternational CenterforScholars,2009). MariaJosFlorgredaisaUNLVgraduatewith adegreeinPoliticalScienceandJournalism, withaminorinLatinAmericanStudies.Sheis alsoamemberoftheHonorsCollege.

Acknowledgments
TheauthorsareindebtedtoRobertLang,Mark Muro,andWilliamE.Brown,Jr.,atBrookings MountainWest,allwhoprovidedinvaluable insights.AlexandraNikolich,Brookings MountainWest,offeredvaluableeditingand designexpertise.

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