Fiscal 2014 Economic Outlook

December ,2013 Approved by the Cabinet Main Economic Indicators

FY2012 (Actual) Trillion yen FY2013 (Estimate) Trillion yen
(Approx.)

FY2014 (Forecast) Trillion yen

(Approx.)

Percentage changes over the previous fiscal year FY2012 % % FY2013 % (Approx.) % (Approx.) FY2014 % (Approx.) % (Approx.)

(Current prices) (Current prices) (Current prices) (Current prices) (Constant prices) (Current prices) (Constant prices) (Current prices) (Constant prices)

Gross domestic product Private consumption expenditure Private residential investment Private non-residential investment Increase in private inventory * Exports of goods and services Less: Imports of goods and services Contribution of domestic demand Contribution of private demand Contribution of public demand Contribution of external demand Labor and employment Total labor force Total employment Employees Unemployment rate Production Industrial production Prices Domestic corporate goods price index Consumer price index GDP deflator Balance of payments Balance of goods and services Trade balance Exports Imports Current balance Current balance as a percentage of GDP
1

472.6 288.1 14.0 64.6 -1.9 70.4 80.8

484.2 295.9 15.5 65.6 -3.0 79.4 92.5

500.4 304.2 15.4 68.8 -1.8 84.8 97.7

-0.2 0.6 4.7 0.5 (-0.1) -0.7 4.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.8

0.7 1.5 5.3 0.7 (-0.1) -1.2 3.8 1.5 1.1 0.3 -0.8
%

2.5 2.7 10.1 1.4 (-0.2) 12.7 14.5 3.0 1.9 1.1 -0.6

2.6 2.5 7.3 0.4 (-0.2) 4.0 4.2 2.7 1.6 1.1 -0.1
% (Approx.)

3.3 2.8 -0.4 5.0 (0.2) 6.8 5.7 3.3 2.6 0.7 0.0

1.4 0.4 -3.2 4.4 (0.2) 5.4 3.5 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.2
% (Approx.)

Ten thousands

Ten thousands Ten thousands

(Approx.) (Approx.)

6,555 6,275 5,511

%

6,567 6,309 5,563

% (Approx.)

6,567 6,323 5,592

% (Approx.)

-0.3 -0.1 0.2

0.2 0.5 0.9

0.0 0.2 0.5

4.3
%

3.9
% (Approx.)

3.7
% (Approx.)

-2.9
%

2.4
% (Approx.)

3.3
% (Approx.)

-1.1 -0.3 -0.9

Trillion yen

1.9 0.7 -0.1

Trillion yen
(Approx.)

3.9 3.2 1.9

Trillion yen
(Approx.)

% (Approx.)

% (Approx.)

-9.4 -6.9 61.6 68.5 4.4

%

-11.6 -10.1 68.7 78.8 4.2

% (Approx.)

-11.5 -10.0 73.6 83.6 4.7

% (Approx.)

-1.7 3.6

11.6 15.1

7.2 6.1

0.9

0.9

0.9

*1 Figures in parentheses represent contribution to GDP growth.

(Note 1) The figures for Consumer Price Index are general. (Note 2) Excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike to be estimated mechanically, consumer price index (total) is expected to be about 1.2% and GDP deflator is expected to be about 0.5%. (Note 3) The figures for Labor and employment in FY2012 (Actual) represent a year-on-year rate of change using national figures, including supplemental estimates concerning Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.

(Reference)

Main Economic Indicators

(%, or approximate %) 4.0 3.4 3.0 Real growth rate 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -1.0 -1.4 Nominal growth rate 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.3 2.6 1. Gross domestic product (GDP)

-2.0 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 Estimate FY2014 Forecast

Actual

(%, or approximate %) 4.0

2. Real GDP growth rate and contributions to the real GDP growth rate

3.4
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 External demand -2.0 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 Estimate FY2014 Forecast
(2.6)

Real GDP growth rate Private demand

2.6
(1.6)

0.3
(0.1) (0.8) (0.1) (- 1.0)

0.7
(1.1)

1.4
(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.1)
(0.3) (- 0.1) (- 0.8) (0.2) (0.2)

Public demand

Actual

Note: Contribution ratios of private demand, public demand, and external demand show their contributions to the real growth rate.

(%, or approximate %) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Consumer price index

3. Percentage change in price related indices 3.2

1.9 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.9

Figuresexcludingthe effectsofthe consumption taxhiketobeestimated

1.2 0.5

-1.0 -2.0

-0.4

-1.7 -2.0

GDP deflator

-3.0 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 Estimate FY2014 Forecast

Actual

(%, or approximate %) 5.0 4.9

4. Unemployment rate and the number of employees

Tenthousands 5,600 5,592 5,580

Unemployment rate 4.5 4.5 4.3 5,540 5,563 5,560

4.0 5,508 5,511 5,501 3.5 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012

3.9 3.7

5,520

5,500

Employees(ight scale) 5,480 FY2013 Estimate FY2014 Forecast

Actual