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T.A.

PAI MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE, MANIPAL Business Statistics Programme : PGDM HC Batch : 2011 2013 Term: 1 Course ID : BSST Credits : 3 Course Instructor : Prof. Sanal T.S Introduction: Most of the decision making process in health care has a random component in it. Probability and statistical methods have the ability to study random component more scientifically. Applications of probability and statistics in managerial decisions enhance the objectivity of decisions. This course intends to provide an exposure to the application of probabilistic concepts and various statistical techniques for managerial inference in health care. Objectives: 1. Acquire knowledge about the concept and application of probability, Probability distribution for discrete and continuous random variables 2. Distinguish the relation between population and sample, and how and why sample information is used to infer population attributes and its relevance for business 3. Interpret various statistical tools of data analysis

4. Use SPSS and Microsoft Excel for data management and statistical analysis Learning Objectives: At the end of the course students will be able to 1. Compute and interpret probability and its distributions. 2. Decide where to apply and how to interpret parametric and non parametric tests. 3. Apply and interpret correlation and regression techniques in health care scenario. 4. Demonstrate the skill to work with SPSS and Microsoft Excel. 5. Interpret the findings of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), Indian Census 2011, Demographic and health survey 2011. Course Content: Probability, Discrete Distributions, Continuous Distributions, Sampling & sampling distributions, Estimation of Population Mean & Proportion, Hypothesis testing for single population parameter and differences in two

means & proportions, Analysis of Variance & Design of Experiments, Analysis of Categorical Data, Nonparametric tests, Correlation, Regression Modeling, Epidemiological measures, Data management and statistical analysis using SPSS & Excel. Textbook: Ken Black (2009), Business Statistics for contemporary decision making, 5/e Wiley India. Additional References: 1. Bharadwaj R S, Business Statistics. Excel books, 2/e, New Delhi. 2. Bowerman B L, Business Statistics in Practice, 5/e, Tata-Mc Graw Hill. 3. Beri G. C. Business Statistics, 2/e, Tata-Mc Graw Hill. 4. Park K, Text book of preventive and social medicine, 18/,Glen Etlyn.

5. Swinscow T D V and Campbell M J. Statistics at Square one. BMJ on line resources.


6. National Family Health Survey (NFHS 3, 2005-06) reports. 7. Census reports 2011, Government of India. 8. Demographic and Health survey reports 2011. Evaluation Components & Weightage: Student presentations Mid-term examination Individual Assignments Practical examination End-term examination (20%) (20%) (15%) (15%) (30%)

PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS AND OBJECTIVES SHEET


PLG# Programme Level Learning Goal Demonstration of mastery in the fundamentals of the technical and functional areas of management of an enterprise Demonstration of understanding of effective integration and coordination of all functional areas and the resultant impact on the performance of an enterprise PLO # PO 1A PO 1B PO 2A PO 2B Programme Learning Objective Application of appropriate technical tools in a managerial context Articulating business context in terms of functional aspects Describing interlinkages among functional areas of an enterprise Analyse and interpret the performance of an enterprise and its various functional units Articulate various concepts in management and demonstrate their application in specific business context Describe a problem faced by an enterprise and demonstrate the application of specific concept(s) in that context Describe the external environment faced by an enterprise and its implications to the enterprise's present and future Comprehend the linkages between an enterprise's external environment and its internal forces and demonstrate the ability to form a strategy and the steps of its execution Describe a context of ethical dilemma and demonstrate the ability to articulate the right versus the wrong in the given context Demonstrate the ability to envision the possible negative impact of an corporate decision and suggest the correct decision(s) in the context Describe the issues pertaining to leadership in a given context of an enterprise Demonstrate the ability to take decisions as a leader of an enterprise in a given context, envision the consequence and demonstrate the will to face the consequences of the decision taken Addressed by the Course Yes No

PG1

PG2

PO 3A

PG3

Demonstration of conceptual knowledge and skills to view an enterprise as a whole and of how the enterprises strategy and organization should be harmonized with the external forces in the environment

PO 3B

PO 3C

PO 3D

PO 4A PG4 Application of the principles of ethics and corporate governance in a variety of settings PO 4B

PO 5A PG5 Demonstration of the capacity to take leadership role in business situations

PO 5B

Part 2 Session Plan Sessions 1-2 Probability Methods of assigning probability and its structure, marginal, joint and conditional distributions. 3-4 Discrete Distributions Random variables, Types of random variable and its probability distributions, distribution functions, mean, variance and standard deviation a random variable, binomial distribution and its mean & standard deviation, binomial table, Poisson Distribution, mean and standard deviation, Poisson tables. 5-6 Continuous Distributions Normal distribution, standard normal distribution and their characteristics; solving normal curve problems; exponential distribution and its characteristics, t and chisquare distributions. 7-9 SPSS and Microsoft Excel Data entry, coding and recoding, data management techniques, merging of files, exporting and importing of data, tabular and graphical representation of the data, measures of central tendency and dispersion. 10 Sampling & sampling distributions Its meaning and reasons, census, frame, random v/s non-random sampling, random sampling techniques, non-random sampling techniques, sampling distribution of and p. 11 Estimation of Population Mean & Proportion Estimating population mean using z and t-statistics, estimating population proportion, constructing of confidence interval for size. 12 Hypothesis Testing for single population parameter Meaning of hypothesis testing and the process, type I and II errors, P value, level of significance, power of a test, testing hypothesis of population mean using z and t; testing hypothesis of population proportion; testing hypothesis about a variance. Chp 9 and p, estimating sample Chp 8 Chp 7 Chp 6 Chp 5 Content References Chp 4

Sessions 13

Content Hypothesis Testing for differences in two means & proportions Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals about the difference in two means using z and t (independent), statistical inferences for two related populations; statistical inferences about two population proportions.

References Chp 10

14

Analysis of Variance & Design of Experiments Introduction to design of experiments, completely randomized design, multiple comparison tests; randomized block design, a factorial design (2-way ANOVA).

Chp 11

15

Analysis of Categorical Data Chi-square goodness of fit test, contingency analysis.

Chp 12

16

Non-parametric tests Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann Whitney U test, Friedman test.

Chap 13

17-18

Univariate analysis using SPSS Kolmogrove smirno, Shapiro wilk, one sample t test, two independent sample t test, paired t test, One way ANOVA, Post hoc tests, Welch, Levenes test, Mann Whitney U test, Kruskal Wallis test, Wilcoxon sign rank test, repeated measures ANOVA, Two way ANOVA, Chi square test.

19

Correlation Scatter diagram, Pearson correlation coefficient, spearman rank correlation coefficient. Positive and Negative correlation, perfect positive and perfect neagatve correlation.

Chap 17

Beri G.C

20

Regression Modeling Simple linear regression, Multiple linear regression, logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, ordinal logistic regression, Equation of the regression line, estimation, residual analysis, coefficient of determination, hypothesis testing for various regression models.

Chap 14-16

21

Multivariate analysis using SPSS Pearson and spearman rank correlation coefficient, Simple linear regression, Multiple linear regression, logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, ordinal logistic regression, Fitting the equation of the regression line.

Sessions 22 Epidemiological measures

Content

References Park K

Prevalence, Incidence, Odds Ratio, Relative Risk, Number Needed to Treat, Number needed to harm, Health Indicators. 23-24 SPSS & Excel for report writing National Family Health Survey (NFHS 3), Census reports (2011). Part 3 Study materials given in this course pack are 1. Dougals G Altman, J Matrin Bland, a. Presentation of data. BMJ 1996; 312:572. b. Variables and Parameters.BMJ 1999; 318:1667. c. Validating scales and indexes. BMJ 2002; 324:606. d. Transformations, means, and confidence intervals. BMJ 1996;312:1079. e. Detetecting skewness from summary information. BMJ 1996;313:1200. f. Quartiles, quintiles, centiles and other quantiles. BMJ 1994;309:996 g. Standar deviations and standard errors. BMJ 2005;331:903. h. Units of analysis. BMJ 1997;314:1874. i. One and two sided tests of significance. BMJ 1994;309:248. j. The normal distribution. BMJ 1995;310:298. k. Correlation, regression and repeated data. BMJ 1994;308-896. l. The odds ratio, BMJ 2000;320-1468. m. Diagnostic tests 2: predictive value. BMJ 1994;309-102. n. Measurement error. BMJ 1996;313:744. o. Cronbachs alpha. BMJ 1997;314:572. p. Interation 2: compare effect sizes not P values. BMJ 1996;313:808. q. Drip feed education: Statistcs notes in the british Medical journal 2. Sanal T.S SPSS for PGDM Health Care Management Course, 2011-2013, Part 1. 3. Sanal T.S SPSS for PGDM Health Care Management Course, 2011-2013, Part 2. 4. Notes on frequency measures used in Epidemiology 5. Notes on Epidemiological indicators of Child health, Adolescent health, Adult health, Geriatric health. 6. SRS Bulletin, January 2011. 7. Growth charts, WHO 2007.