International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 2, No. 11, Pp. 394-398, Nov., 2012.

Manuscript
Received:
28,Dec., 2011
Revised:
23,May, 2012
Accepted:
21,Jul.,2012
Published:
15,Dec., 2012

Keywords
Gradient
descent
algorithm,
K-means
clustering
algorithm,
radial basis
function
artificial
neural
network
(RBFANN),


Abstract Modeling and simulation of
hydrological processes are important for the
efficient management and planning of water
resources. In recent years, radial basis
function artificial neural network
(RBFANN) models are significantly used in
the field of water resources and hydrological
applications due to their good convergance
ability. The RBFANN has flexible
mathematical structure which is capable of
identifying the non-linear relationship
between input and output data sets. The
RBFANN model is motivated by the locally
tuned response. Due to this nature, the
networks are easily trained by a sufficiently
large data set to learn the physical process
to be approximated. The training of
RBFANN can be split into an unsupervised
part and a supervised part. The K-means
clustering algorithm is used in unsupervised
learning and gradient descent algorithm is
used in supervised learning part. This paper
illustrates about the model setting
parameters which are to be estimated
carefully in RBFANN while modeling the
rainfall-runoff process. In RBFANN, spread
and center values are the model parameters
which are estimated by inducing the suitable
weight values. The spread value is selected
based on the minimum error crieteria of the
developed model. Fortnightly rainfall-runoff
values of Kovilar reservoir in Vaipar basin
in Tamilnadu, India has been used for the
rainfall-runoff modeling. The results
showing that the selection of spread is an
important parameter in the model
performace. It was found that the
magnitude of spread value has an impact of
model perforance and it should be selected
with care.


1. Introduction
The transformation of rainfall into runoff is one of the
complex processes exists in hydrology. Understanding the
dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process constitutes the most
important problems in hydrology, with obvious relevance


K.S.Kasiviswanathan, Dept., of WRDM, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee-247667,
India (vishwaitr@gmail.com)
Avinash Agarwal, Scientist F, NIH Roorkee, Roorkee-247667, India
(Aviinash@nih.ernet.in).
for the management of water resources. Rainfall- runoff
process is highly nonlinear both spatially as well as
temporally. It is governed by many physical factors such as
basin shape, elevation, slope, topography, drainage network
pattern. In addition, it also depends on climatological
factors such as sunshine, temperature, humidity and wind
velocity. Therefore modeling of these physical processes
should consider accurate estimation of model parameters.
However, modeling of rainfall-runoff process is
cumbersome process by considering all these factors. Most
of these parameters are not always measured directly in the
field everywhere.
Conceptual and process-based models have been
developed by considering all these parameters to some
extent for the rainfall-runoff modeling [1-2]. In both cases,
model applications are hinged by uncertainties of model
input parameters. Still, modeling of rainfall-runoff process
has been an active area of research in water resource
management, and will remain an interesting topic in the
foreseeable future [3].
Artificial neural network (ANN) is an attractive
inductive approach for modeling non-linear and complex
systems without explicit physical representation and thus
provides an alternative approach for modeling hydrologic
systems. Artificial neural network was first developed in the
1940s. Generally speaking, ANNs are information
processing systems. In recent decades, considerable interest
has been raised over their practical applications. Training of
artificial neural network enables the system to capture the
complex and non-linear relationships that are not easily
analysed by using conventional methods such as linear and
multiple regression methods. Based on the different
applications, various types of neural network with various
algorithms have been employed to solve the different
problems.
A numerous researchers have involved in finding the
potential of artificial neural network in the rainfall-runoff
modeling and few of them are worth mentioning here
[1-12].
The gradient decent algorithm is a class of
optimisation technique used extensively in neural network
framework in last two decades to variety of applications
[13]. However, the problem associated with this algorithm
tends to trap in local minima rather than global minima. In
addition, it has slow learning rate and the network structure
is difficult to develop [9]. In this regard, application of
RBFANN results are encouraging owing to its simple
topological structure and its ability to reveal how learning
proceeds in an explicit manner. The RBFANN was
Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Network:
Spread Selection
K.S. Kasiviswanathan & Avinash Agarwal
K.S. Kasiviswanathan et al.: Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Network: Spread Selection.
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

395
introduced into the ANN literature by Broomhead and Lowe
[14]. The RBFANN was initially used to solve the real
multivariate interpolation problem [15]. Park and Sandberg
[16] studied the universal approximation problem using the
RBFANN network. More recently, RBFANN has been
employed in non-linear system identification and time series
prediction [14, 17]. In the present study, the influence of
model setting parameter (i.e. spread) has been analysed. The
values are selected logically based on the Gaussian
probability distribution of input clusters where the model
error is minimized. The computer program was developed
using K-means clustering algorithm for the RBFANN to
carry out rainfall-runoff modeling for Kovilar Reservoir in
Vaippar basin of Tamilnadu, India. The program code was
written in FORTRAN language. Results are compared
across different type of networks developed with different
spread values. From this study, it was found that the
performance of the model is improved while the magnitude
of the spread value is lesser. It addition, it was observed that
the Gaussian RBF center has more sensitivity when the
value of spread is minimum.
2. Radial Basis Function Artificial
Neural Network
A radial basis function artificial neural network, which
is multilayer feed forward network. The term feed forward
means that the neurons are organized in the form of layers
in a layered neural network [18]. The RBFANN has three
layers as input, function and output layer. The input layer is
composed of input data and the output layer yields the
response of the network. The function layer is an
intermediate layer between input and output layer. These
function layer nodes do not implement the same
multiply-and-add (weighted summation) as the hidden layer
nodes in a BPANN but computes a respective field from
individual function overlaps. Unlike the input and output
nodes are problem dependent, the function node is decided
by the network designer based on the model performance.
In RBFANN operation, input of n
th
pattern with each
pattern made up of jj variables represents a point in the
jj-dimensional input space. These inputs are connected to
the input layer. The input layer does not transform the
pattern, but forward an image of variables to each node in
the function layer. The nodes in the function layer are each
specified by a transfer function (x), which radially
transforms the incoming information. In general, Gaussian
function is the best choice of activation function for the
RBFANN model.
2
1
2
-
( ) exp -
2
jj
j i
j
i
x c
x
o
=
| |
|
|
u =
|
|
|
|
\ .

(Equ. 1)
The Gaussian RBF center of the i
th
function node can
be specified by mean c
i
and deviation o
i
also known as
measure of spread of the respective field of the function.
From the function layer to output layer, the linear
summation of weight into function response from the
hidden layer is calculated initially and the sigmoid function
is used to project the output value in the output layer node.

Sum=w
n
(x) (Equ. 2)

1
1
k
Sum
y
e

=
+
(Equ. 3)

where, y
k
is the output of function layer.
The norm(( .(( represents the Euclidean distance
between the set of inputs and respective center of variable.
The performance of RBFANN critically depends upon the
chosen center where the function value is higher and spread
that is indicative of the radial distance from the RBF center,
within which the function value is significantly different
from zero. The selection of center could be through an
arbitrary selection and this could be from a) data points of
the subset b) the mean of data points of the subset c)
ordinary least square of subset d) orthogonal least square of
subset. The spread value in this problem is fixed as constant
and it is selected arbitrarily based on the minimum error
criteria.
In learning strategy, the weights between input and
function layer are updated using unsupervised training and
function layer to output layer uses supervised training. The
most popular unsupervised algorithm is K-means clustering
algorithm. In clustering technique, it attempts to find centers
for basis function in a fashion that it reflects the distribution
of input vectors over the input space. This can be
accomplished in an unsupervised manner using a variant of
nearest neighbor analysis or by the Kohonen self organizing
feature maps. The Kohonen self organizing feature maps are
used for projecting patterns from high dimensional to low
dimensional space. All connecting weights are adjusted by
making a weight movement proportional to a Mexican hat
function [19]. In supervised training a standard gradient
descent procedure is used [13].
3. Performance evaluation
measures
The performance of the proposed methodologies
during calibration and verification is evaluated by
performance indices such as root mean square error
(RMSE), and coefficient of correlation (CC). They are
defined as with the following equations:

( )
2
1
1

n
k k
k
RMSE y y
n
=
=

(Equ. 4)

International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 2, No. 11, Pp. 394-398, Nov., 2012.
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

396
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
1
2 2
1 1
.
.
n
k k k k
k
n n
k k k k
k k
y y y y
CC
y y y y
=
= =
(

=

(Equ. 5)

where,
k
y -Observed Runoff in m
3
/s
k
y -Mean observed Runoff in m
3
/s

k
y - Estimated Runoff in m
3
/s
k
y - Mean of estimated Runoff in m
3
/s
n- Length of data point
4. Study Area and Data used
Pilavakkal reservoir system consists of Periyar and
Kovilar reservoirs in Virudhunagar District of Tamilnadu
State, India. In this study, Kovilar reservoir has been taken
as a study area (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1 The study area: Kovilar reservoir, Vaipar basin, India.

It is situated within the geographical coordinates of
(9
o
41N, 77
o
23E) and (9
o
38N, 77
o
32E). Kovilar reservoir
is constructed across the non-perennial Kovilar River,
which carry only intermittent flash flows depending on the
seasonal rainfall. The command area experiences a tropical
climate throughout the year.
A maximum mean monthly temperature of 38.34
o
C is
observed during May, whereas a minimum mean monthly
temperature of 20.04
o
C occurred in the month of January.
Mean annual rain fall of the dam site is 1187 mm against
the state average of 945mm. However, the rainfall is highly
erratic and is less than 75% of the mean in 20% of the years.
Hence the area can be classified as drought prone according
to the standards fixed by the Indian Meteorological
Department.
Historical fortnight average records of rainfall and
runoff data have been collected for the years 1992-2002
from Kavalur meteorological station, the nearest available
meteorological station, about 20 km from the reservoir site.
It is assumed that the data obtained from this station are
relatively accurate to carry out the modeling process.
5. Model Development
By considering different inputs, the following model is
finalized using correlation matrix method and to maintain
the parsimony of the model.

-1 -1 -2
( , , , )
t t t t t
Q f R R Q Q = (Equ. 6)

where, Q
t
represents the runoff at time (t); R
t

represents rainfall at time (t). The suffixes t-1, t-2
corresponds to the lagged values of hydrological variables.
6. Results and Discussion
The fortnightly rainfall, runoff data for the years
1992-2002 are used for the development of rainfall-runoff
models. In which, the data from 1992 to 1997 are used for
the calibration of the model where as the data from
1998-2002 are used for the verification of the model. The
main objective of the present study is to determine the
suitable model setting parameter such as spread for the
efficient learning of RBF network.


Fig. 2 Larger spread


Fig. 3 Small Spread

In RBFANN, the activation function depends on the
chosen center and the radial distance from a point (i.e.
centre). The unique feature of the RBFANN network is the
process performed in the functional layer. The pattern in the
input space form clusters. If the centres of these clusters are
known, then the distance from the cluster centre can be
measured. Furthermore, this distance measured is made
non-linear, so that the pattern is in an area that is close to a
cluster center, it gives a value of 1. Beyond this area, the
value drops drastically. The spread value determines the
activation within the cluster. If the spread value is high, the
data points will be scattered to a large distance from the
K.S. Kasiviswanathan et al.: Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Network: Spread Selection.
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

397
center and hence the maximum function response will be
reduced. Thus, the value of spread has to be determined
properly for the better performance of the network. Figure 2
shows the shape of Gaussian function with larger spread
value and figure 3 shows the shape with lesser spread value.
The best optimized center is fixed through proper
weight vector. The adjustment of weight is carried out by
selecting suitable learning rate values. In this study, two
different learning rate values are used. Function layer uses
the learning rate () and output layer uses learning rate ().
The trial and error method was used to determine the
learning rates (-10 and -5). The number of iteration
required for model convergence was 1000 and found that
beyond which the model performance was not significant.
Thus, a constant value of as 10, as 5 and iteration as
1000 are fixed to develop model with different spread value.
In order to effectively analyse the spread selection with
respect to function node, the number of function node
should be a variable. In this study, it was varied between 4
and 24 (table 1).
It was found that the model performance was good
with spread value of 1.0 with 4 function nodes. The
performance measures such as RMSE and CE values are
138.4 m
3
/s and 72.9% respectively during calibration period.
During verification period the RMSE and CC values are
slightly improved and obtained the value of 115.9 m
3
/s and
76.6% respectively. It shows the consistent model
performance across calibration and validation phase. Spread
value less than or greater than 1.0 reduces the model
performances and can be seen table 1.
TABLE 1
PERFORMANCE OF RBFANN MODEL

Spread
2
2

ALR - 10, ALRG - 0.5, No. of iteration - 1000
Calibration Verification
RMSE
(m
3
/s)
CC
(%)`
RMSE
(m
3
/s)
CC
(%)
Network 4-4-1
0.5 145.6 69.6 127.0 72.4
1.0 138.4 72.9 115.9 76.6
1.5 145.4 69.2 119.6 70.9
2.0 148.7 66.3 121.6 68.4
2.5 155.3 64.0 125.2 66.4
Network 4-24-1
0.5 151.8 68.2 119.6 71.5
1.0 132.5 75.0 113.2 78.5
1.5 139.0 72.5 124.8 73.6
2.0 146.4 70.4 130.5 70.1
2.5 154.6 69.1 138.4 68.4


The model (4-24-1 and 4-4-1) has a similar
performance. The better performance of model is obtained
with spread value of 1.0. In case of network with 24
function nodes, the obtained results are slightly improved
compare to 4-4-1 network with spread value of 1. During
calibration, RMSE and CC values are 132.5 m
3
/s and 75.0%
respectively and during verification, RMSE and CC values
are 113.2 m
3
/s and 78.5% respectively. Over all, the
selection of spread value significantly impacts the
performance of the model. For the value of spread (2
2
=1),
the model performance is good both in calibration period
and in verification period. But for the higher value of spread,
the performance of the model diminishes gradually. At the
same time, for lower value (i.e. 2
2
is less than 1) again the
model performance is reduced. This may be due to the
network fails to activate the function near its center and
overlapping from the cluster center. While comparing the
calibration and verification results, verification period
results are good. In addition, if the number of functional
node increases, the performance also increases. This is
mainly because the number of cluster formed will be high
with larger function node and hence with specified spread
value, the function can activate the function effectively with
in the cluster. The proposed approach is helpful for
hydrological modellers with limited number of changing
parameters. This will substantially reduce the complexity of
the model in constructing adequate ANN based
rainfallrunoff models more systematically.
7. Conclusion
Radial basis function artificial neural network could be
a better solution of rainfall-runoff modeling, when
physically based models with partial differential equations
of mass and energy is difficult due to lack of data. The
results from this study give an idea that the selection of
functional nodes and spread values are very important. The
model performance is comparatively better with spread
value of 1. It indicates that the selection of spread value has
an impact on the model accuracy. The RBFANN neuron is
more sensitive to data points near its center. For Gaussian
RBF this sensitivity may be tuned by adjusting the spread
(o), where as the higher value of spread does not produce
any remarkable variation in model performance compare to
the spread with lesser value. This is mainly due to the
function node characteristic which is more sensitive to data
points near its center. The performance indices (i.e. RMSE,
CC) values show that the model closely matches the
observed values across different months.
References
[1] Moradkhani, H., Hsu, K.L., Gupta, H.V., & Sorooshian, S.
Improved streamflow fore-casting using self-organizing radial
basis function artificial neural networks, (2004) J. Hy-drol. 245,
246-262.
[2] Thirumalaiah, K., & Deo, M.C. Hydrological forecasting
using neural networks, (2000) Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,
ASCE 5(2), 180-189.
[3] Senthil K.A.R., Sudheer, K.P., Jain, S.K., & Agarwal, P.K.
Rainfall-runoff modeling using artificial neural networks:
comparison of network types, (2005) Hydrol. Process, 19,
1277-1291.
[4] Agarwal, A., & Singh, R.D. Runoff modeling through back
International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 2, No. 11, Pp. 394-398, Nov., 2012.
International Journal Publishers Group (IJPG)

398
propagation artificial neural network with variable rainfall-runoff
data, (2004) Water resources management, 18(3), 285-300.
[5] Chiang, Y.M., Chang, L.C., & Chang, F.J. Comparison of
static feed forward and dynamic-feedback neural networks for
rainfallrunoff modeling, (2004) Journal of Hydrology, 290,
297311.
[6] Fernando, D.A.K., & Jayawardena, A.W. Runoff
forecasting using RBF networks with OLS algorithm, (1998)
J.Hydrol. Engng., ASCE, 3(3), 203209.
[7] French, M.N., Krajeswski, W.F., & Cuykendall, R.R.
Rainfall forecasting in space and time using a neural network,
(1992) Journal of Hydrology, 137, 1-31.
[8] Hsu, K.L., Gupta, H.V., & Sorooshian, S. Artificial neural
network modeling of the rainfallrunoff process, (1995) Water
Resources Research, 31, 25172530
[9] Lin, G.F., & Chen, L.H. A non-linear rainfallrunoff model
using radial basis function network, (2004) Journal of Hydrology,
289, 18.
[10] Rajurkar, M.P., Kothyari, U.C., & Chaube, U.C. Modeling
of the daily rainfall runoff relationship with artificial neural
network, (2004) J. Hydrol., 285, 96-113.
[11] Raman, H., & Sunilkumar, N. Multivariate modeling of
water resources time series using artificial neural networks, (1995)
Hydrol. Sci. J. 40(1), 145163.
[12] Shamseldin, A.Y. Application of a neural network technique
to rainfallrunoff modeling, (1997) Journ.Hydrol., 199, 272294.
[13] Rumelhart, D.E., Hinton, G.E., & Williams, R.J. Learning
representations by back-propagation errors, (1986) Nature, 323,
533-536.
[14] Broomhead, D. & Lowe, D. Multivariable functional
interpolation and adaptive networks, (1988) Complex Syst, 2,
321355.
[15] Powell, M.J.D. Algorithms for Approximations, Oxford
University Press, (1987) pp. 143167.
[16] Park, J., & Sandberg, I.W. Universal approximation using
radial basis function network, (1991) Neural Computation, 3,
246257.
[17] Moody, J., & Darken, C. Fast learning in networks of
locally tuned processing units, (1989) Neural Computation, 4,
740747
[18] Haykin, S. Neural Networks: A Comprehensive
Foundation, Prentice Hall Inc., Engle wood, (1991) pp. 213214.
[19] Ralph Brinks On the convergence of derivatives of
B-splines to derivatives of the Gaussian function (2008)
Computational and Applied mathematics, 27(1), 79-92.