10 TIMESReview WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 2010

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Alex Cooper/Times Review
Greg Johnson and Anna Young discuss the snowpack conditions across the province during their daily meeting.
In a small boardroom on
the second foor of the Cana-
dian Avalanche Centre, a trio
of forecasters are discussing
the days avalanche bulletins.
Greg Johnson and Anna
Young are in the room, while
Cam Campbell joins from
Vancouver them via confer-
ence call.
Theyve already discussed
northwest British Colum-
bia and have now started on
the North Columbia region,
which stretches from the
Trans-Canada highway north
to Prince George.
Something Im consider-
ing, and I need to think about
it and look into it more, I
think I might crank the dan-
ger ratings down, said John-
son, who was charged with
writing the North Columbia
bulletin for that day. Im
throwing it out there to you
guys a little bit. Its my feel
that its a little bit better but I
havent gotten that far yet in
my head. Im just throwing it
out there for you guys to say
no, he says, seeking input.
The previous Friday a spe-
cial avalanche warning was
issued for the region and on
Monday it was the site of a
fatal incident when a snow-
mobiler got caught in an ava-
lanche on Queest Mountain
near Sicamous.
The current danger rat-
ings were set at considerable
(meaning natural avalanches
are probable and human-trig-
gered ones possible) for the
alpine, considerable for the
treeline and moderate (mean-
ing natual avalances unlikely
and human-triggered ava-
lanches unlikely) for terrain
below treeline.
Below moderate is low,
and above considerable the
scale goes to high and ex-
treme. The risk is raised and
lowered depending on the
snowpack conditions.
The persistent slab is
slow to heal so continued
conservative travel is rec-
ommended, said a special
message included with the
bulletin issued at 4 p.m. on
Jan. 19. Less avalanches are
being reported but more are
coming as surprises.
A persistent slab issue re-
mained in the snow pack and
there was also a wind slab
concern.
This instability is still in
the snow pack, said Johnson,
a snowboard bum whos been
with the avalanche centre for
six years.
Its a tough call but even
moderate covers this sort of
problem, said Campbell. If
wind slabs are less of an issue
at treeline I can see treeline
going down to moderate.
Its a tricky call and its
more of a greenlight for
people even though its not
a green light situation, said
Johnson. It might even war-
rant a special message. You
just cant let your guard down
out there right now. You just
cant.
I dont think its about
letting your guard down,
responded Young. I think
its about going into those
big, high-marking bowls or
rocky, convex features. To
me its migrated from a skier-
triggering issue to a sledder-
triggering issue.
These are the types of con-
versations that take place dai-
ly at the Canadian Avalanche
Centre, located in downtown
Revelstoke.
The centre employs seven
public avalanche forecasters
who are tasked with issuing
daily avalanche bulletins for
the mountains of British Co-
lumbia and Alberta.
Campbell, Johnson and
Young are all very experi-
enced and have a great deal
of training. Campbell holds
a Master of Science in Civil
Engineering, specializing in
snow and avalanches and is
a researcher for University of
Calgarys Applied Snow and
Avalanche Research Centre.
Johnson also has a MSc in
Civil engineering, specializ-
ing in snow and avalanches,
and has worked around Can-
ada and the United States as
an avalanche forecaster and
mountain guide since the ear-
ly 90s. Young has a Bachelor
of Science in Geography and
has been venturing into the
backcountry since she was a
little girl and works as a ski
guide when shes not in offce
or taking care of her child.
The forecasters start their
day by reviewing data collect-
ed from around the province.
Each forecaster is charged
with several regions and goes
through feld information,
incident reports, weather in-
formation, snow reports from
local ski hills, and online dis-
cussion boards.
Im a data miner. I go
scrounging for data every-
where, said Young.
Their main source of data
is InfoEx, an online service
that is used by cat and heli-
skiing operations, ski guides,
highway managers, and oth-
ers. They post their feld re-
ports to the server and that is
in turn taken by the forecast-
ers to get an idea of the snow
pack conditions in the region.
Users are required to hold at
least a Canadian Avalanche
Association Operations Lev-
el 1.
We dont rely on public
reports, said Young. InfoEx
is reliable because it requires
a minimum level of qualifca-
tion.
InfoEx reports go by
guidelines ranging from very
good, which means no natu-
ral avalanches are expected,
to very poor, indicating wide-
spread avalanches are expect-
ed. In between lies good, fair,
and poor.
For Youngs region, the
South Rockies, the ratings
were mostly good and fair on
this day.
At around 10 a.m., they
start their meeting to go over
the data together and receive
advice from each other.
The meeting starts with
an overview of the weather
forecast.
The Sierras are just get-
ting pounded right now, said
Johnson.
Yeah, it would be fun in
Tahoe, said Young, channel-
ling her inner ski bum.
For B.C. though, theres
little of note in the forecast.
What were doing is
looking at the big picture,
said Johnson. Were looking
at general weather patterns
and in these weather patterns,
what kind of storm can they
produce. Were building an
overall picture.
Once the weather portion
is done, the discussion turns
to snow pack conditions
across the province.
Just reviewing through
ALEX COOPER
Times Review
See Avalanche on next
page
Assessing danger: A morning at the
C O M M U N I T Y
In 2005, they moved to Revel-
stoke to work for Mica Heliski-
ing. Norrie was the lodge manager
until she had her frst child, Cam-
eron. She now is the merchandise
manager for Mica.
As of last week, she was due
any day to give birth to her second
child. When she can, she is a guest
coach with the Revelstoke Nordic
Club and still races occasionally
I have high hopes for some of
the kids here, she said.
I think theyll do well and
will be inspired by the Vancouver
Olympics.
This year, shell be cheering on
her former training partner, Sara
Renner, who is on the Canadian
Nordic Ski Team and will be rac-
ing in Vancouver.
Norrie said she doesnt miss
competing.
Its a lot of work and I dont
have the drive to do that anymore,
she said. I really enjoy watching
it, but I dont feel like I should be
there.
TIMESReview WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 2010 11
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the InfoEx, Im seeing a lot of
hazard ratings instead of stabil-
ity ratings all of a sudden, said
Johnson.
People are talking about
that low probability, high con-
sequence, said Campbell.
A lot of people are hung on
fair, replied Johnson. Its not
really a refection of what the
stability is out there.
Its spooky, added Young.
This is when the big rum-
blers come down and bury
people, continued Johnson.
I dont blame them one bit, I
just think we need to be aware
of that.
The trio discuss lingering
conditions that can increase
the likelihood of avalanches.
Surface hoar, a thin, fragile
and persistent weak layer in the
snowpack, is the main issue.
They go through each region
Northwest, North Columbia,
South Columbia, Kootenay
Boundary, and more and go
over the information theyve re-
ceived about each.
One issue they face is the
sheer size of each region, which
creates different conditions
throughout.
Variations absolutely occur
in the snow pack, said Johnson.
Theres going to be areas that
have low avalanche danger and
theres going to be areas that
have a much greater avalanche
danger. We recognize that, but
were trying to capture the es-
sence of whats happening in
the mountains.
Weve got this big area and
inherently were going to be a
bit more conservative, he add-
ed.
The special warning that was
issued on Jan. 14 was the result
of weak layer in the snowpack
that developed earlier in the
winter, said Young.
The snow pack developed
quite steadily and then it got
warm and kept precipitating,
Young said.
With the weekend approach-
ing and the possibility of lots of
people heading up to the moun-
tains, a decision was made to
issue the warning.
We try to issue special ava-
lanche warnings not necessar-
ily when the avalanche danger
is the greatest, but when we feel
people are most prone to acci-
dents and that typically comes
at tricky times, Johnson said.
As for the fatality on Queest
Mountain, he said it did play
into the thinking.
Its defnitely a factor but
its not something we get hung
up on, he said. We still have
to show that the snow pack is a
dynamic thing. The snow pack
changes pretty quick.
After the meeting, a call is
placed to Environment Canada
to ask any question about the
weather report. Then, the fore-
casters go about writing the
bulletins. If they have more
questions, theyll go back to the
sources and place phone calls
to get answers.
When it comes time to es-
tablish the danger rating, the
forecaster makes the call.
Johnsons questions sur-
rounded the North Columbia
region. While the situation
seemed moderate, there was
still the possibility of triggering
a big avalanche.
Its improved but it doesnt
mean the potential isnt there
for something big to happen,
said Johnson. Historically this
is where we see big, nasty ava-
lanches.
It can go from really, really
good to really, really bad really,
really fast, said Young.
Thats part of the reserva-
tion, added Johnson. Realisti-
cally, conditions are improving
and danger ratings are dropping
but it doesnt necessarily mean
that its a no-brainer up there by
any means.
Part of the problem, said
Young, is that people will often
only look at the ratings and not
read the whole text.
In the end, for the Jan. 20
bulletin, Johnson decided to
reduce the rating in the alpine
to moderate from considerable,
but he kept the treeline and be-
low-treeline ratings the same.
This came with a warning:
Triggering large and dan-
gerous avalanches at treeline
and just above treeline on a
persistent weak layer of surface
hoar remain a real possibility.
He explained his decision
the following day, saying a
combination of benign weather
and stabilizing snow pack led
to his decision but that it wasnt
without reservations.
I just felt in many areas that
the snow pack was in pretty
good shape, he said. I tried to
capture what I felt was the over-
all essence of what I felt was
happening in the mountains.
By Friday, Jan. 22, the warn-
ing was set at moderate for all
elevations in the North Colum-
bia throughout the weekend.
Norrie from p. 8
Norrie coaches with
local Nordic club
Avalanche from previous
page.
Canadian Avalanche Centre
C O M M U N I T Y