LETTERS
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 5 JANUARY 2014 | DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2041
Frequency and magnitude of volcanic eruptions
controlled by magma injection and buoyancy
Luca Caricchi1,2 *, Catherine Annen1 , Jon Blundy1 , Guy Simpson2 and Virginie Pinel3
Super-eruptions are extremely rare events. Indeed, the global
frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions is inversely propor-
tional to the volume of magma released in a single event1,2 .
The rate of magma supply, mechanical properties of the crust
and magma, and tectonic regime are known to play a role
in controlling eruption frequency and magnitude3–7 , but their
relative contributions have not been quantified. Here we use
a thermomechanical numerical model of magma injection into
Earth’s crust and Monte Carlo simulations to explore the fac-
tors controlling the recurrence rates of eruptions of different
magnitudes. We find that the rate of magma supply to the
upper crust controls the volume of a single eruption. The time
interval between magma injections into the subvolcanic reser-
voir, at a constant magma-supply rate, determines the duration
of the magmatic activity that precedes eruptions. Our simu-
lations reproduce the observed relationship between eruption
volume and magma chamber residence times and replicate the
observed correlation between erupted volumes and caldera
dimensions8,9 . We also find that magma buoyancy is key to
triggering super-eruptions, whereas pressurization associated
with magma injection is responsible for relatively small and
frequent eruptions. Our findings help improve our ability to
decipher the long-term activity patterns of volcanic systems.
Statistical analysis of volcanic deposits shows that the recurrence
rate of eruptions releasing more than 500 km3 of magma cannot be
determined by extrapolating the frequency–magnitude relationship
followed by smaller eruptions1,2 , which suggests that the trigger
mechanism for super-eruptions differs from that for small
eruptions2 . Furthermore, no straightforward physical link has been
established between the timescale over which magma accumulates
in subvolcanic reservoirs and the size of an eruption8 . However,
the exponential relationship between the volumes of large, caldera-
forming eruptions and caldera diameter raises the possibility that
reservoir thickness might play an important role in triggering large
eruptions. Here we explore the key physical factors controlling the
recurrence rates of eruptions of different magnitudes and test the
hypothesis that magma buoyancy can serve as an eruption trigger
for the largest eruptions.
Magma storage in crustal subvolcanic reservoirs is accompanied
by cooling and degassing, leading to crystallization10 . The presence
of crystals increases magma viscosity, decreasing the ability of
magma to erupt (eruptibility)11,12 . Field studies, radiometric
dating and thermal modelling show that magma accumulates
in reservoirs through discrete, short-lived pulses4,5,13 . Thus, two
fluxes characterize the growth of a magmatic reservoir (Fig. 1a):
the magma flux during a single injection of magma (Qinst ) and
1 Schoolof Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queen’s Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK, 2 Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences,
University of Geneva, rue des Maraîchers 13, Geneva CH-1205, Switzerland, 3 ISTerre, Université de Savoie, IRD, CNRS, Campus Scientifique, Le Bourget du
Lac F73376, France. *e-mail: luca.caricchi@unige.ch
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the long-term, average flux of magma from depth14 (Qav ). The
difference between these two fluxes depends simply on the repose
interval between pulses, ti (Fig. 1a). Qav controls the thermal
evolution of a magmatic system and therefore the possibility to
generate and sustain a reservoir of potentially eruptible magma5,15 .
To quantify the volume of eruptible magma present during the
assembly of a reservoir, we use results from thermal modelling of the
periodic injection of cylindrical sills of dacite magma into the crust5 .
In these models, each successive cylindrical pulse (thickness h) is
emplaced at the base of the previous one so that the diameter
of each pulse (d) is equal to the lateral extent of the reservoir.
We consider that any parcel of magma with less than 50 vol%
crystals is eruptible11 (Methods). Following refs 3,16 the total
overpressure in a magmatic reservoir embedded in a viscoelastic
medium consists of the overpressure generated by injection of
magma (1Pinject ) into the reservoir:
2ηcrust Qinst
1Pinject = (1)
3Vres
and the overpressure related to buoyancy (1Pbuoy ):
Ver
1Pbuoy = 1ρg (2)
(d/2)2 π
where ηcrust is the viscosity of the crust, Vres is the volume of the
magmatic reservoir, 1ρ is the difference in density between the
eruptible magma and the surrounding rocks and Ver is the volume
of eruptible magma, g is gravity and d is the diameter of the injected
sills. The critical value of overpressure required for an eruption
to occur (1Pcrit ) is related to the strength of the overlying crust,
its thermal state3,4,6 and the presence of pre-existing weaknesses.
If 1Pinject  1Pcrit , the surrounding crust behaves elastically and
the time required to pressurize the reservoir to the critical value
is directly proportional to 1Pcrit , Vres and inversely proportional
to Qinst and the elastic modulus of the crust3 . If 1Pinject < 1Pcrit
relaxation of pressure by viscous deformation of the crust becomes
important and 1Pcrit cannot be reached by magma injection. In this
case the only available mechanism for elevating the overpressure to
critical values is magma buoyancy (equation (2) and Fig. 1; ref. 3).
In our model, eruptions occur if eruptible magma is present
and overpressure exceeds 1Pcrit . We identify a priori three different
magma accumulation regimes (Fig. 1): first, Qav is high and magma
injections are frequent so that eruptible magma accumulates early
during the assembly of the reservoir and 1Pinject > 1Pcrit resulting
in frequent small eruptions. Second, Qav is high but injections
1
LETTERS
a No eruptible magma
Eruptible magma present in the magmatic reservoir
2
ti
Volume injected magma
1 Qinst (km3 yr−1 ); with Qinst > Qav
Vpl
Qinst
1 Time/relaxation time
b ΔP ≥ ΔPcrit by magma injection ΔP = ΔPcrit by buoyancy
1
Hyperactive volcanic system
ΔP/ΔPcrit
Eruption volume ≈ 0.1 km3
2
Super-eruption
Eruption volume > 500 km3
1
Effect of buoyancy
3
Pluton
1 Time/relaxation time
Figure 1 | Possible scenarios of magma injection and associated
overpressure. a, Injected magma volume versus time normalized to
relaxation time (that is, time required to relax the overpressure generated
by magma injection through deformation of the crust) for different
Qav (long-term, average flux of magma from depth), Qinst (magma flux
during a single injection of magma), Vpl (volume of the single pulses) and ti
(interval between pulses). Dashed and continuous lines indicate the
absence and presence of eruptible magma, respectively. b, Variation of
overpressure (1P) normalized to the critical overpressure required for an
eruption to occur (1Pcrit ) associated with the three scenarios presented in
a. Time is again normalized to relaxation time.
of magma occur more sporadically, eruptible magma starts to
accumulate only when the reservoir is too large for injection
alone to generate sufficient overpressure for eruption, that is
1Pinject < 1Pcrit . In this case an eruption can occur only because
of external triggers, or because the thickness of eruptible magma is
sufficient for 1Pbuoy to exceed 1Pcrit (equation (2)). In this case a
large eruption occurs. Third, Qav is low, eruptible magma is present
only intermittently in the reservoir, 1P is always less than 1Pcrit
and magma accumulation leads to the growth of a pluton without
associated volcanism.
Equation (1) pertains to a spherical reservoir whereas our
thermal models simulate the addition of sheet intrusions and result
in bell-shaped or ellipsoidal reservoirs. In non-spherical reservoirs,
stresses are not uniformly distributed and tend to concentrate
where curvature is highest3,17 . Large eruptions are associated with
laterally extensive reservoirs9 , hence overpressurization of these
reservoirs may lead to lateral propagation of dykes or sills without
eruption18 . Thus, our assumption that eruption occurs once 1Pcrit
is attained tends to overestimate the number of simulated eruptions.
The calculated Ver and time required for an eruption triggered
by buoyancy to occur are maximum values. Deformation of the
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NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2041
Table 1 | Range of input parameters used for the Monte Carlo
simulations.
Qav
Minimum value Maximum value
Qav (km3 yr−1 ) 0.0001 0.1
0.001 1
ηcrust (Pa s) 1017 1019
1Pcrit (MPa) 1 40
3 d (km) 1 100
d/h 1 100
d/h is the aspect ratio of the single pulses (d is the diameter and h is the height). We considered
a uniform distribution of the parameters to perform the Monte Carlo simulations.
crust under the effect of buoyancy can lead to an increase of the
vertical extent of the reservoir during magmatic activity, which may
shorten the duration of magmatic activity preceding an eruption
and consequently decrease the calculated Ver .
Eruption
Recent studies suggest that prolonged magma-induced heating
of the reservoir roof can induce its collapse and trigger large
volcanic eruptions4,6 . The overpressures required by these models
are generated in large reservoirs only at high magma injection rates
but are easily achieved by buoyancy3 . Other authors7 showed the
rheological properties of magma itself can affect the relationship
between caldera size and erupted volume with the caldera size not
No eruption
always reflecting the spatial extent of the magma reservoir. In our
quest for understanding volcanism on the global scale, we neglect
this effect, which is, however, important for individual volcanoes.
We carried out 1.2 million Monte Carlo simulations varying
randomly and simultaneously all variables of our model within
geologically reasonable limits3,8,17 (Table 1). This approach allows
us to include implicitly other factors influencing the time required
for an eruption to occur such as the thermal evolution of the crust
during prolonged magmatic activity4,6 . The tensile strength of the
roof is a function of its lithology and thermal state, the presence
of pre-existing fractures and the regional stress field: the effective
strength of the roof rocks may be reduced in the case of regional
extension, intense fracturing and heating3,4,6,17,19 , or increased in the
case of compression. Fracturing and/or heating of the roof rocks
may modify the crustal viscosity and 1Pcrit (refs 3,4,6). These pa-
rameters vary from one volcanic province to another and we capture
this variability by considering a range of 1Pcrit and ηcrust (Table 1).
We analysed the potential overpressure generated by buoyancy
in eruptions triggered by magma injection and vice versa. For
eruptions larger than ∼1,000 km3 triggered by magma injection,
the contribution of buoyancy to the total overpressure would be
significant (1Pbuoy /1Pinject ∼ 1), thus, these eruptions (less than
2% of the total number of simulations) were not included in the
statistics (Supplementary Fig. 1). Reservoirs reach critical state over
a range of timescales (Fig. 2a). Ver increases with Qav (Fig. 2a)
and with increasing time interval between injection episodes (ti ;
Fig. 2a,d). For Qav ≤ 0.0001 km3 yr−1 the amount of advected
heat is too low to permit accumulation of eruptible magma and
generally a pluton forms. The largest eruptions were produced
in simulations where buoyancy was the trigger mechanism (blue
symbols in Fig. 2a,d). Such large volumes of magma accumulate
only if 1Pinject < 1Pcrit (Fig. 1b; ref. 3). The accumulation of
sufficient buoyant magma required for 1Pbuoy ≥ 1Pcrit occurs
normally over longer timescales than those required to pressurize
a reservoir to 1Pcrit by magma injection (Fig. 1 and equation (1)),
therefore buoyancy-driven eruptions require longer pre-eruptive
magmatic episodes (Fig. 2b).
Our simulations can be compared with data on natural
volcanic eruptions20–26 . The spread of zircon radiometric ages
from individual eruptions provides a proxy for the duration of
NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2041 LETTERS
a 100,000 b 100,000
Increasing ΔPcrit Qav = 0.1 (km3 yr¬1)
Decreasing ΔPcrit Fish Canyon (ref. 8)
10,000 10,000
Eruptible volume (km3) at ΔPcrit—DRE

Eruptible volume (km3) at ΔPcrit—DRE

Qav = 0.01 (km3 yr¬1) Toba (ref. 8)
Qav = 0.1 (km3 yr¬1)
1,000 1,000 Atanna and Toconao (ref. 8)
ti > 5 kyr Qav = 0.001 (km3 yr¬1)
Huckleberry (ref. 8)
2 < ti < 5 kyr
100 100 Lava Creek (ref. 8)
Qav = 0.01 (km3 yr¬1)
Qav = 0.0001 (km3 yr¬1)
Whakamaru (ref. 8)
10 Contouring 10
0.5 < t < 2 kyr
i
ΔPcrit = 10 MPa Ongatiti (ref. 8)
Qav = 0.001 (km3 yr¬1) ηcrust = 1019 Pa s
Qinst = 10 Qav km3 yr¬1 Bishop Tuff (ref. 8)
1 d/h = 99 1
Oruanui (ref. 8)
Triggered by magma injection
0.1 < ti < 0.5 kyr Triggered by buoyancy Mesa Fall (ref. 8)
0.1 0.1
0 500 1,000 1,500 0 500 1,000 1,500
Rotoiti (ref. 8)
Duration magmatic episode—radiometric age (zircon; kyr) Duration magmatic episode—radiometric age (zircon; kyr)
Kos Plateau Tuff (ref. 8)
c 100,000 Qav > 0.01
d 100,000 Mazama (ref. 21)
Increasing ΔPcrit
0.005 < Qav < 0.01
Minoan (ref. 8)
0.001 < Qav < 0.005
10,000 10,000
Eruptible volume (km3) at ΔPcrit—DRE

Eruptible volume (km3) at ΔPcrit—DRE

Qav < 0.001 Whakatane (ref. 22)

Kaharoa (ref. 22)
1,000 Decreasing ΔPcrit 1,000
Rock Mesa (ref. 23)

Devil’s Hills (ref. 23)

100 100
ηcrust= 1019 Pa s Ito Tuff (ref. 19)
ti > 1 kyr
10 10 Tambora (ref. 24)
0.5 < ti <1 kyr Contouring Katmai (ref. 19)
ΔPcrit = 10 MPa
0.1 <ti < 0.5 kyr ηcrust = 1017¬1019 Pa s
1 1 Pinatubo (ref. 25)
Qinst= 10 Qav km3 yr¬1
ηcrust = 1017 Pa s d/h = 99 Vesuvius (ref. 19)
ti < 0.1 kyr
0.1 0.1 Mt St. Helens (ref. 26)
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
Diameter magmatic system—equivalent caldera diameter (km) Diameter magmatic system—equivalent caldera diameter (km)

Figure 2 | Results of Monte Carlo simulations and comparison with natural volcanic eruptions. Red symbols are for eruptions triggered by magma
injection and blue for eruptions triggered by buoyancy. Contours show the main parameters controlling the trends observed in the simulations. a, Eruptible
volumes and dense rock equivalent (DRE; for natural eruptions) against duration between first injection and eruption. b, Same as a with coloured areas
delineating the most likely (95% confidence) duration. Symbols show real eruption volumes and modal zircon ages. Error bars: 95% confidence level for
ages and error associated to dense rock equivalent estimates. c, Ver against caldera diameter. d, Comparison with real erupted volumes and caldera sizes
(10% uncertainty for caldera dimensions).

the pre-eruptive magmatic episode. Natural volcanic eruptions different sizes to reach criticality and erupt, so providing a means of
distribute over two trends: the eruptions showing smaller spread in comparison with our models (Fig. 3). Two characteristic timescales
zircon ages compare favourably with eruptions triggered by magma for eruption can be identified for eruptions triggered by magma
injection (Fig. 2b). Large eruptions (Ver > 50 km3 ) occurring after injection: the time required to pressurize a reservoir to 1Pcrit by
more than about 200 kyr of magmatic activity compare well with continuous magma supply (ref. 3), considering that at each time
eruptions triggered by buoyancy (Fig. 2b). Considering the effect on Earth there is at least one volcanic system containing eruptible
of 1Pcrit on Ver , natural eruptions show better correspondence for magma and the chamber is being replenished (probably the case
1Pcrit < 10–20 MPa (Fig. 2). Furthermore, even if the relationship of frequent and small eruptions); and the timescale between the
between caldera dimensions and erupted volumes is complicated appearance of eruptible magma and the achievement of overpres-
by the effect of reservoir shape on the amount of magma that can sure compatible with eruption (more important for eruptions that
be erupted during a caldera collapse9,20 and by local tectonics, our occur less frequently on Earth). For eruptions triggered by buoyancy
simulations mimic the observed exponential increase of Ver with we considered the time required to accumulate enough eruptible
the caldera diameter20 (Fig. 2d). Therefore, our results account for magma for 1Pbuoy = 1Pcrit . The timescales calculated considering
the observation that magmatic reservoirs feeding large eruptions these endmember scenarios agree well with those observed in
are horizontally extended and suggest that the maximum thickness nature1,2 and suggest that the largest possible eruptions could be
of a magmatic reservoir may be limited by the achievement more frequent than has been documented over the past 30 Myr
of critical overpressures by buoyancy. The agreement between (Fig. 3). This is because the largest model eruptions involve an
calculations and data shown in Fig. 2b,c suggests that we have elevated Qav that may occur only rarely in nature (Fig. 2a). We
captured the primary physical factors controlling the magnitude propose that the deviation of eruptions >500 km3 from the power
of volcanic eruptions. law relationship between frequency and magnitude of volcanic
Considering volcanism on the global scale, the inverse of erup- eruptions (Fig. 3) results from a change in the trigger mechanism
tion frequency approximates the timescale required by reservoirs of from periodicity of reservoir replenishment for small eruptions

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LETTERS NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2041

100,000
Volcanic eruptions data from (ref. 1)

10,000

1,000
Eruptible volume (km3)—DRE

t
cri
P
oΔ

ion
ir t
rvo

pt
eru
100

se
re

to
he

ma
et

ag
riz

em
10

u
ss

ibl
re

pt
op

eru
et

of
Tim

e
nc
ara
pe
0.1 Triggered by injection of magma

ap
m
ro
ef
Triggered by buoyancy

Tim
0.01
0.1 1 10 102 103 104 105 106 107 108
Time between eruptions—1/frequency (yr)

Figure 3 | Comparison between modelled and observed frequency and magnitude of eruptions. The grey rectangles are from ref. 1. The red rectangles
show the time required to pressurize a magma chamber to 1Pcrit by magma injection within the two timescales described in the main text. The blue
rectangles indicate the time required to accumulate the critical thickness of eruptible magma for buoyancy to trigger an eruption. Both red and blue areas
are traced for 95% confidence level.

to buoyancy for large eruptions. These results, together with an The time interval between injections (ti ) is given by:
estimate of the largest possible model eruption (35,000 km3 , Fig. 2),
Vpl Vpl
will help improve our understanding and the statistical significance ti = −
Qav Qinst
of the global pattern of volcanic activity.
The incubation times required to reach the solidus (t700 ) and the time required to
Methods accumulate volumes of eruptible magma (t850 ) in the crust are given by5 :
We assume that pulses comprising water-saturated dacitic magma at its liquidus
temperature of 900 ◦ C (ref. 27) are injected into a crust initially at 150 ◦ C, as t700 = 81q−2
cylinders of volume Vpl :
and
 2
d t850 = 155q−2
Vpl = πh
2
The total time from the beginning of the magmatic episode (first injection of
At ∼850 ◦ C the crystal content reaches 50 vol% and the magma is no longer magma) to the eruption, for eruption triggered by injection of magma, is given by:
eruptible27 . The volume of the magmatic reservoir was defined by the amount
of magma at a temperature higher than the solidus27 (700 ◦ C). We considered a t = ter + ti
difference in density between magma and country rocks (1ρ) of 400 kg m−3 . This
value includes the presence of exsolved volatiles. and for eruptions triggered by buoyancy is the time required to accumulate a
The approach we follow could be readily adapted to consider different magma thickness of eruptible magma sufficient for 1Pbuoy to be equal to 1Pcrit . Simulations
compositions with different temperature–crystallinity relationships, intruded at were arrested if the vertical thickness of accumulated magma reached unrealistic
different temperatures. values (>15 km) before an eruption occurred.
Although the injected magma in the model is hydrous we do not consider
explicitly volatile exsolution as a pressurizing mechanism for the reservoir28 . The
Received 22 October 2013; accepted 21 November 2013;
relatively high compressibility of CO2 and H2 O at subvolcanic reservoir conditions
means that even in the extreme case of complete exsolution of the entire magmatic published online 5 January 2014
volatile budget, say 5 wt% H2 O, volume expansion is less than 25% relative29 . This
is equivalent to injecting a pulse of magma that is 25% larger than it would be if no
volatiles were exsolved. Thus, volatile exsolution can be captured implicitly in the
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Acknowledgements
This work was financially supported by a NERC fellowship (NE/G012946/1) to L.C. and
an ERC Advanced Grant CRITMAG and Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award to
J.B. C.A. was financially supported through ERC Advanced Grant VOLDIES to S. Sparks,
who we also thank for comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. The review of
M. Jellinek significantly improved the manuscript.
Author contributions
All authors contributed to the study. L.C. carried out the mechanical modelling, the
Monte Carlo simulations, wrote the first draft of the manuscript and prepared the figures.
Additional information
Supplementary information is available in the online version of the paper. Reprints and
permissions information is available online at www.nature.com/reprints. Correspondence
and requests for materials should be addressed to L.C.
Competing financial interests
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
5