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Int. J. Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 169 200, 1991.

Printed in Great Britain.

0360-3199/9l $3.00 + 0.00 Pergamon Press plc. International Associationfor Hydrogen Energy.

A CLEAN AND PERMANENT ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN: S O L A R - H Y D R O G E N ENERGY SYSTEM


N. LUTFI and T. N. VEZIRO~;LU Clean Energy Research Institute, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, U.S.A.

(Received Jot publication 19 October 1990)


Abstract--A solar-hydrogen energy system has been proposed for Pakistan as the best replacement for the present fossil fuel based energy system. Hydrogen is to be produced via a photovoltaic~electrolysis system, utilizing the available non-agricultural sunny terrain in Baluchistan region. There will be a desalination plant for sea water desalination. The area under the photovoltaic panels with the availability of water would provide suitable environment for growing some cash crops. This would change the vast useless desert land into green productive farms. In order to show the quantitative benefits of the proposed system, future trends of important energy and economical parameters have been studied with and without hydrogen introduction. These included population, energy demand (fossil + hydrogen), energy production (fossil + hydrogen), gross national product, fossil energy imports, world energy prices, environmental savings due to hydrogen introduction, savings due to the higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen, by-product credit, agricultural income, income from hydrogen sale, photovoltaic cell area, total land area, water desalination plant capacity, capital investment, operating and maintenance cost, total income from the system environmental impact and quality of life. The results indicate that adopting the solar-hydrogen energy system would eliminate the import dependency on fossil fuels, increase gross product per capita, reduce pollution, improve quality of life, and establish a permanent and clean energy system. The total annual expenditure for the proposed system is quite small compared to the total income expected. The availability of water, the cast crop production, electricity and hydrogen would result in rapid development of Baluchistan, the largest province of Pakistan.

NOMENCLATURE A B C D E F G H I K L O P Q R S t U V W Constant; area Constant Constant; fuel price; cost; capital Cost of environmental damage Energy consumption/demand (fossil plus hydrogen) Fossil fuel consumption (production) rate; fossil fuel imports Gross national product Hydrogen production (consumption) rate Income Constant Quality of life indicator Operating & maintenance cost Pollution Population Fossil fuel resources Solar insolation; savings Time Fossil fuel pollution per unit energy Dimensionless doubling time modifier; voltage Dimensionless population growth modifier; water Ratio of total PV cell area to total plant area Ratio of cultivated land area to total plant area

A 7 ~ O ~/ F

Difference Fuel consumption fraction Ratio of environmental impact of hydrogen to that by fossil fuels Doubling time Ratio of hydrogen utilization efficiency to that of fossil fuels; efficiency Average agricultural income per unit area

Superscripts a,b,c,v,u,y,z Subscripts


a b c d e f g h i n o p q s r t w 169 Area Balance of system Composite; cell Demand Energy; environment Fossil fuel Gross national product Hydrogen Imports; irrigation Number (year) Initial year; oxygen Production; plant; price; cost; post Population; per capita Storage, transmission and compression Dimensionless ratio Total World; water Constant powers

Greek letters
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170 av el pv re Average Electrolyser Photovoltaic Rectifier

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO~LU The United Nations Intergovernmental Committee on Environment recently issued a report [7], prepared by 300-plus environmentalists, which states that the greenhouse effect, acid rains and pollution caused by fossil fuels are of immense proportions, that they are to play havoc with the global climate and that to counteract the effects, carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced immediately by 60% worldwide. In order to accomplish such a reduction, fossil fuel usage must be reduced by 60%. Such a reduction would bring the technological civilization to a standstill. The only way to accomplish such a reduction is to use a fuel which does not produce carbon dioxide. In order to replace the fossil fuels, renewable primary energy sources, such as direct solar radiation, wind energy, ocean thermal energy and geothermal energy, are being considered. However, these do not possess all the desirable qualities possessed by petroleum and natural gas. For example, some are only intermittently available, others are only available away from the consumption centers, and none can be used as a fuel for transportation. Therefore, it becomes necessary to find an intermediary or synthetic form of energy, which can be produced using the new unconventional energy sources. In such a system, the intermediary energy form or carrier must be transportable and storable, economical to produce, and renewable and pollution free if possible [8]. Many scientists and engineers believe that the hydrogen energy system could form the best link between the new energy sources and the user, and at the same time solve the environmental problems caused by fossil fuels. In the hydrogen energy system, it is envisaged that hydrogen will be produced from water using the non-fossil energy sources, and will be used in every application, where the fossil fuels are being used today [9]. Hydrogen can be manufactured by any and all primary energy sources. It is the cleanest and most efficient fuel. When its higher utilization efficiencies and the environmental damage caused by fossil fuels are taken into account, hydrogen becomes the cheapest fuel. Hydrogen's use as an energy carrier is growing fast: --Space programs around the world use hydrogen as their fuel; --The United States Aerospaceplane, which is now under development, will fly on hydrogen; --U.S., Japanese, Soviet and European aircraft manufacturers are considering hypersonic passenger transport to run on hydrogen; --TokyOpower plants;Electric Utility has two hydrogen fuel cell --United Technologies and Toshiba have recently announced that they will offer hydrogen fuel cells on a commercial basis starting 1992; - - A r o u n d the world, there are experimental cars, buses and homes fuelled by hydrogen; and - - M o s t importantly, in a milestone event in the history of hydrogen energy in 1990, the Geneva based

1. I N T R O D U C T I O N The standard of living of a country is directly proportional to the energy it consumes. The energy is the basic input to sustain the economic growth and to provide the basic amenities of life for the entire population of a country. Consequently all the countries, and especially the developing countries, are trying to increase their energy consumption to increase the living standards of their peoples, At present, some 60% of the world energy demand is met by fluid fossil fuels (i.e. petroleum and natural gas), as shown in Fig. 1, and their reserves are being depleted fast [1-3]. In addition technologies for fossil fuel extraction, transportation, processing, and particularly their end use (combustion), have harmful impact on the environment, which causes direct and indirect damage to the economy, The world is now at the verge of another energy crisis--a crisis that may make the oil price shock of 1970s seem like a minor tremor. The emerging crisis relates not to issues of energy supply, but to a complex web of environmental problems caused by the use of fossil fuels that not only endangers the quality of life in modern society but also jeopardizes continued global economic development. Deteriorating urban air quality [4], observed global warming from the greenhouse effect [5], crop losses, and the acidification of lakes and forests [6], are interrelated consequences of fossil fuel use that are making fossil fuel pollution front page news. It has been estimated that, this year alone the environmental damage caused by the use of fossil fuels will add up to $2,360 billion worldwide; next year it will be higher. These are not only prompting policy-makers to propose far-reaching new environmental control policies, but are also prompting scientists to develop low-polluting, non-fossil energy sources, which have the potential to substitute for the present fossil fuel based energy system.
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Fig. 1. World energy use in 1990.

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN


--~ BUILDING THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE HYDROGEN ENERGY SYSTEM I S O / T C 197 HYDROGEN ENERGY S3"P, ATEGIC POUCY STATEMENT Standards ] = l To facilitate the economic and safe I production, storage, transport and utilization of hydrogen as an environmentally cornpatlbfa energy carder and feedstock, Intematlonal standards are needed.
. . InternaUonsl . . .

171

Need for

BIo-envlronmentai constraints and climatic change, due to the iexponantlal growth of pollution from fossil resources, call for the urgent introduction lof hydrogen as a clean, renewable type of energy. - - J Hydrogen, produced from water and recombined with oxygen to water, is the favodte clean fuel, energy carder and energy stock. Without atlonal standards the common use and custody transfer of hydrogen would Ized. GATT- and EC- regulations require the free trade of any commoditlee file hindrance of technical barriers.

Fig. 2. Strategic policy statement for the preparation of hydrogen energy international standards. International Standards Organisation decided that the hydrogen energy system is a viable energy infrastructure of the future, and therefore started work for the preparation of the appropriate technical standards for hydrogen energy technology. A meeting was held in Zurich on 21-22 June 1990, for this purpose [ 1 0 ] . Figure 2 summarizes the Strategic Policy Statement for the preparation of Hydrogen Energy International standards. Table 1 shows the structure of various subcommittees formed at the meeting, It is thus the right time to initiate and plan an orderly conversion to the hydrogen energy system, which will provide the world with the most efficient, cleanest and permanent energy system to protect our environment forever, and will ensure a higher quality of life for its inhabitants, 2. B A C K G R O U N D I N F O R M A T I O N A N D PROBLEM STATEMENT A developing country, Pakistan with a surface area of 796,000 km 2 and population of about 110 million is among the countries where the provision of adequate and reliable energy is one of the major challenges in the realization of the socio-economic development of the country. Presently some 65% of the country's commercial energy demand is met with indigenous sources, and the rest has to be met through imports, mostly in the form of oil, at a cost of about 26% of the country's export earnings. In the past, the country experienced two oil crises in 1973 and 1979. These resulted in draining of more than half of the valuable foreign exchange, which could have been used to import other capital goods for economic development. Figure 3 shows the annual indigenous oil production and import of crude oil. The country is still at a lower level of economic development, which is indicated by its small G N P per capita of $400. The country will need large inputs of energy in order to sustain the pace of economic development at a reasonable level and to meet the growing aspirations of its rapidly increasing population [11, 12]. Energy consumed in Pakistan comprises at present about two thirds in commercial and one third in noncommercial forms. Non-commercial fuels are generally used by the rural population. Since the non-commercial sector has been rather static and reliable figures are in general not available, we will restrict our consideration to commericial energy. Figure 4 shows the percentage share of different sources of energy in the overall consumption of energy. This figure clearly shows the dominance of oil and gas in the consumption of energy, which adds to about 75% of the total for the last three decades. The most dramatic changes in the last forty years are the major decline in the use of coal, greater reliance on artificially cheap domestic natural gas, and steady development of the country's hydro potential. Table 1. Subcommittees structure Subcommittee name Secretariat

Number

SCI Definitions Canada SC2 Measurements Germany SC3 Handling Canada SC4 Safety Canada SC5 Surface vehicles U.S.A. SC6 Aerospace U.S.A. SC7 Electrochemical devices Belgium SC8 Hydrides China SC9 Environment U.S.A. SC10 Applications Germany U.N.-ISO/TC 197 Hydrogen Energy Technologies. Secretariat: Switzerland.

172

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO~LU


e--e INDIGENOUS OIL .A--~ IMPC~IIr.O OIL

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I 1970

I 1972

! I 1974 1976

I I 1978 1980 WARS

I I 1982 1984

I 1986

I I 1988 1990

Fig. 3. Indigenous oil production and crude oil import. The proven fossil fuel reserves of Pakistan amount to only 32,605 PJ as shown in Table 2 [13]. With the present energy consumption growth rate of 7% per year corresponding to a doubling time of 10 years, these reserves would last only 21 years. Even if new discoveries should result in doubling the reserves, this period would increase by only 8 years. It should be pointed out that the coal reserves, which account for 18% of the total proven fossil fuel reserves constitute mostly of poor quality coal. However, Pakistan is blessed with plentiful renewable energy sources, especially solar energy which could be coupled with hydrogen production, in order to establish an inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy system. The conversion of solar energy into hydrogen results in a versatile energy carrier for solar energy storage, transportation, distribution and utilization [14]. Pakistan, like other developing countries, is trying to expand its energy infrastructure. It could avoid the mistakes of industrial countries, by basing its energy infrastructure on the solar-hydrogen energy system, rather than on a non-renewable and environmentally incompatible system. Hydrogen could be produced by a photovoltaic-electrolysis system, utilizing the available nonagricultural sunny terrain in the Baluchistan region [14, 15]. It is intended to cover the southern part of the province with PV panels. There will be a desalination plant for the sea water desalination in order to supply fresh water for the production of hydrogen and for irrigation purposes. The PV panels would be installed high above the ground on concrete posts. The area under the photovoltaic panels with the availability of water
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Fig. 4. Share of different energy sources in overall energy consumption of Pakistan.

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN Table 2. Proven and estimated fossil fuel reserves of Pakistan Proven Estimated Fuel reserves reserves type (PJ) (PJ) Oil 6330 16768 Gas 20475 42000 Coal 5800 14646 Total 32605 73414

173

OTEC and wind respectively. The figure also include the present cost of gasoline in $ G J- L(G 1). G2 represent cost of gasoline taking into account the utilization efficiency penalty of 26%, and G3 represents the cost of gasoline taking into account the utilization efficiency and cost of environmental damage ($ 10.62 GJ-l). (e) With the research and development efforts carried out in National Institute of Silicon Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan has already acquired the technology to manufacture photovoltaic cells from its indigenous sources [23]. (f) The electrolytic production of hydrogen using photovoltaic electricity would have strong environmental advantages, because of the absence of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of sulfur and other noxious pollutants, during the manufacturing of photovoltaic cells and the electrolytic production of hydrogen. (g) The installation of PV panels would require use of a large area for which much useless land available in the Baluchistan region could be utilized. 3.1. Proposed site The cost of electricity accounts for over 50% of the cost of hydrogen produced by electrolysis and delivered to a consumer some 1600 km from the production site [18]. It is thus desirable to locate such plants in sunny areas where PV electricity could be produced more cheaply, and then distribute the hydrogen through pipelines to regions of consumption. Also transporting hydrogen long distances via pipelines typically costs far less than transporting the same amount of energy in the form of electricity via transmission lines [24]. With the exception of the extreme northern region, during the peak winter where the insolation values fall to as low as 7.5 M J m 2day-l, the country as a whole exhibits an excellent solar climate, with most of the country receiving an average of 19.0 MJ m 2 day a [25]. Baluchistan with its available uninhabited and unused sunny lands, offers itself as the best location for the proposed solar-hydrogen energy system. It is proposed to install photovoltaic cells high above the land on concrete posts. The idea is to benefit from the shade provided by PV panels to improve the climate of the desert and use it for agriculture after irrigation. There will be a desalination plant for sea water desalination in order to supply fresh water for the production of hydrogen and for irrigation purposes. The area under the PV panels would provide a suitable environment for growing cash crops. This would change the vast useless desert land into green productive farms. The coastal area of Baluchistan is a potential site for wind energy as well, and thus in the future the wind energy could be used in combination with the PV plants to produce electricity for hydrogen production. About 60% of the total reserves of natural gas of Pakistan is located in Baluchistan. The availability of empty natural gas wells in Baluchistan would facilitate the large scale hydrogen storage. A comprehensive

would provide suitable environment for growing cash crops. This would change the vast useless desert land into green productive farm land, in addition to producing energy. Hydrogen could be stored in the empty natural gas wells and could be distributed all over the country (initially mixed with natural gas) through the existing natural gas pipeline system and through extensions. This study is intended to explore the possibilities and the merits of applying a solar-hydrogen energy system to Pakistan. It attempts to assess the future role of such an energy system in meeting the country's energy needs without any import dependence, and to ensure the economic development of the country. In order to show the quantitative benefits of the proposed system, a model will be developed to predict the future trends of important energy and economicalparameters, with and without hydrogen introduction [16]. 3. PROPOSED S O L A R - H Y D R O G E N ENERGY SYSTEM Among the various methods available for the production of hydrogen from water using solar energy, the photovoltaic-electrolysis system has been proposed for Pakistan because of the following reasons, (a) The water electrolysis is one of the most promising hydrogen production methods because of its technologicalmaturity, simplicity and the high quality of hydrogen (and oxygen) it produces [17]. (b) Electrolysers can be coupled directly to photovoltaic cells [18]. (c) From the various technologies available for the conversion of solar energy into electricity, e.g. wind, OTEC, photovoltaic, hydro, etc., photovoltaic is much less geographically limited, since photovoltaic electricity can be generated in any sunny region, (d) The photovoltaic cells, due to the latest technological development, have a great potential of lowering the cost of electricity, and hence the cost of hydrogen. This can be seen from Fig. 5, which shows the cost of hydrogen as a function of solar electricity cost projected for the year 2000 and for various production methods [18-22]. As can be seen from this figure, the hydro source can produce the cheapest hydrogen because of its lowest electricity generation cost. It is followed by PV,

174

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pipeline system from the natural gas reserves in Baluchistan to supply natural gas to the rest of the country already exists, which could be utilized to transport hydrogen (initially mixed with natural gas), after extending the pipeline system to the site of the hydrogen plant. 3.2. P V-Electrolysis system components Figure 6 shows the block diagram of the proposed PV-~lectrolysis system. It consists of a PV array that would collect sunlight and convert it into d.c. electricity. There will be an electrolyser that would use this electric-

ity to split water into its constituent elements, hydrogen and oxygen. There will be a compressor that would being the produced hydrogen (and oxygen) up to the required pressure, and a hydrogen storage and distribution unit. There will be a desalination plant for sea water desalination to supply fresh water to the electrolyser and for irrigation purposes: A detailed description of the above mentioned system is presented below. (a) P V Farm. The amount of direct-beam solar energy that a surface receives is optimized by keeping the

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ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN surface at right angles to the sun's direct radiation at all times. In most cases, maneuvering a surface is impractical or the cost of energy and the mechanical assembly required to track the sun accurately and consistently each day generally outweighs the extra energy obtained by doing so when flat plate solar cells are used. The next best proposition is to fix the surface's position so that the sun's angle on the plane is closest to the perpendicular most of the time [26, 27]. In the northern hemisphere, the surface angle and position that faces the sun most directly throughout the year is directed due south. North of the equator, the sun's path is always located in the southern half of the sky. A surface must be positioned facing south to maximize its exposure to the sun over an entire day. To optimize the sun's energy, the surface must be angled up from the horizontal to face the sun. The optimum tilt angle over a full year must balance the summer maximum and winter minimum declination angle. The surface tilt angle that is most perpendicular to the sun's direct rays at this central solar altitude angle is equal to the site's latitude angle [27, 28]. Thus, in order to convert the solar energy into electricity south facing PV panels tilted at an angle equal to the site's latitude to optimize the availability of solar radiations would be used. The PV panels could be installed on concrete posts at a height of about 4.5 m above the ground as shown in Fig. 7. Each post would have the capacity to support 48 m 2 of PV cell area. The advantage of having high raised structures, as explained earlier, is that the land below the panels could be used for agriculture. There will be a water supply pipe on the top of each panel to clean the PV panels from dust. The reason for using concrete supports is its low cost, low maintenance and long life.
PV Panel Cteonlng System PV Pane(

175

It is proposed to use amorphous-silicon solar cells, because of the rapid technological advances in that field, their lower energy and material requirements and their capability of being mass produced easily [18]. (b) Electrolyser. The electrolyser unit uses d.c. electricity produced by PV cells, and thus avoids the use of a rectifier for the conversion of d.c. to a.c. electricity. Moreover, there is a good theoretical and empirical evidence that a direct connection between the solar array and the electrolyser works extremely well and obviates the need for expensive d.c. to d.c. power-conditioning equipment [29-31]. There are currently three electrolysis technologies commercially available or under development. Two of these, the "unipolar" and "bipolar" alkaline electrolysers, which produce hydrogen and oxygen by passing direct current through an aqueous solution of potassium hydroxide, are commercially available, mature technologies. Unipolar electrolysers are less expensive, more efficient, and more modular; bipolar electrolyser have the advantage of high pressure operation, which saves on compression costs for the produced hydrogen. While pressurized electrolysers lead to savings in compressor work, they tend to be slightly more costly and less efficient as compared to the less capital-intensive atmospheric pressure unipolar units. The third type of electrolyser, which uses solid polymer electrolytes (SPE) made of an acid catalyst, is still in demonstration stage. At present, platinum catalysts are required for stable operation. Although the search for less expensive and rare catalyst materials continues, a long-term solution to this problem is uncertain [32-34]. It is therefore suggested to use atmospheric pressure unipolar electrolyser in the present system.

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N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(~LU scale distribution of hydrogen is by pipelines. It has been suggested that existing natural gas pipelines might be used for hydrogen transmission. Although natural gas pipelines are not optimized for hydrogen transmission, it appears that a relatively small cost penalty would be incurred for this mismatch. Problems of hydrogen embrittlement and diffusion, which could be problematic in converting some kinds of gas handling equipment to hydrogen, would not pose serious problems for pipelines [37]. Embrittlement would not be a serious problem under the modest temperature and pressure conditions in pipelines. Compressors, valves, and other flow-modifying parts for which diffusion might be problematic would typically have to be replaced anyway when a pipeline is converted to hydrogen, to accommodate the different fluid characteristics of hydrogen. Eventually, a dedicated hydrogen pipeline could be built along existing natural gas pipeline rights of way. As long as Pakistan is concerned there already exist a comprehensive pipeline system from natural gas reserves in Baluchistan to supply natural gas to the rest of the country as shown in Fig. 8. As natural gas production in Baluchistan falls off, an increasing percentage of PV-hydrogen could be mixed in with it. It should be mentioned that the hydrogen transmission costs are somewhat higher than those of natural gas due to higher compression cost resulting from hydrogen's low density, but much lower than electricity transmission costs both for overhead and underground mode [38]. (e) Utilization. For Pakistan, it is convenient to breakdown the hydrogen utilization into five, namely Power Sector, Domestic Sector, Transport Sector, Fertilizer Sector and Industrial Sector.
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(c) Compressor. The produced hydrogen needs to be compressed (i), for onsite storage for onsite use and to level out the quantity of hydrogen delivered to the pipeline, and (ii) to transport it long distance through pipeline, in order to overcome the frictional drag on the flowing gas. There are two alternative compression strategies that can be pursued. One would be to pressurize the gas moderately at the pipeline inlet and provide a number of booster compressors along the way. The alternative would be to provide a very high pressure at the pipeline inlet to minimize the need for booster compressors. The latter strategy is preferable and therefore recommended for the proposed system due to the following two reasons: firstly, there are clear scale economies for compressors, so that one large compressor would tend to be less costly than an equivalent number of smaller units, Secondly~ the compressor work at the pipeline inlet could be provided by the low cost power from the PV array, whereas the booster stations in general would have to rely on more expensive electricity from other sources, (d) Storage and distribution. There are many ways to store hydrogen. For large scale storage the recommended method is underground storage at about 600-750 psi in aquifers, rock or salt caverns and depleted oil and gas reservoirs. Such formations typically have very large capacities, large enough to store up to 10 PJ of hydrogen [35, 36]. Some such reservoirs would be available in the Baluchistan region, Hydrogen produced must be transported to the consumption centers. Although it is possible on small scale as pressurized gas in high pressure containers and as liquid in insulated containers, the most economical large

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ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN

177

(i) Power Sector.


Hydrogen is the most suitable fuel for electricity generation using fuel cells---which are not subject to Carnot cycle limitations--with efficiencies (50-70%) higher than any other fuel. At a location far away from the PV farms, it is more economical to produce hydrogen on site and transmit it through pipelines and convert back to electricity using fuel cells at the point of use [39].

(iv) Fertilizer Sector. About 30% of thePakistan'snaturalgasconsumption is in the fertilizer sector to produce hydrogen through steam reforming process, which in turn is converted into various types of chemical fertilizers. The use of electrolytic hydrogen instead, could lead to the conservation of natural gas resources. (v) Industrial Sector. Hydrogen is being used in variety of industrial processes, e.g. hydrogenation of edible oil, oil refining, electronics, glass production, pharmaceuticals, electric generator cooling and space industry [18, 34, 48]. (f) Water desalination plant. In order to supply water to electrolysers and for irrigation purposes, a water desalination plant would be required. There are many technologies available for sea water desalination, among them the reverse osmosis is the most promising, because of its lower energy consumption, the ease by which the plant could be scaled up and their quick installation. In addition reverse osmosis is simple to automate and control, and require little supervisory or operational labour [49, 50]. 4. S O L A R - H Y D R O G E N MODEL In order to find out the advantages (or the disadvantages) of the proposed system, a model will be developed to predict the future trends of important energy and economical parameters, with and without hydrogen introduction. The following parameters are included in the model: population, energy demand (fossil + hydrogen), energy production (fossil + hydrogen), gross national product, hydrogen introduction rates, fossil energy imports, world energy prices, environmental savings due to hydrogen introduction, savings due to the higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen, by-product credit, agricultural income, income from hydrogen sale, photovoltaic cell area, total land area, water desalination plant capacity, capital investment, operating and maintenance cost, total income from the system, environmental impact and quality of life. In the following sub-sections, the interrelationships for the above mentioned parameters will be developed. 4.1. Population Population of Pakistan, like many other developing countries is increasing fast--at 3.1% per year. Knowing the initial value of the population and the growth rate, the population at a later time can be estimated from the following relationship [51]: Q,, = Q, ~exp[ln2 At, W,/Oqo] (1) where Q, = Qn ~= At = W, = Population at year t,; Population at year t,_ 1; t,-t,_~; Population growth modifier for time interval Atn; Oqo = initial population growth doubling time.

(ii) Domestic Sector.


One of the basic energy needs in the domestic sector is for cooking. Hydrogen, could be used in lieu of natural gas in conventional gas cooking appliances [40, 41]. Once the electricity is generated, using fuel cells, it could then be used for heating through electrical resistance heaters, for cooling through conventional air-conditioning systems, and for heating and cooling through conventional reverse cycle air-conditioning systems, Another, and perhaps more efficient way of achieving space cooling would be to use hydrogen in lieu of natural gas in conventional absorption cooling systems after making some adjustments to the burners [42]. For large scale space heating hydrogen could be used instead of natural gas in steam boilers or more efficiently in an Aphodid steam generator for producing circulating steam. For residential use it can be used in hydrogen flame burners or more efficiently in catalytic space heaters. Because of the presence of a catalyst such as Platinum or palladium, in latter type, combustion could be carried out at a low enough temperature so that there would be negligible NOx production and the combustion products could be discharged directly into the heated space, resulting in a heating efficiency close to 100% [43].

(iii) Transport Sector.


While hydrogen could supplant oil in virtually all its current end uses, transportation markets are particularly important, since they account for about half of oil use in Pakistan and more than one third of oil use worldwide. Wide-spread use of PV-hydrogen could greatly reduce fossil fuel use in response to the greenhouse problem, as well as reduce dependence on oil. Large amounts of research and experimental work have been done on the use of hydrogen in internal combustion engines for both surface and air transportation. Hydrogen powered cars and buses have already been built. The viability of a gaseous fuel infrastructure for transportation has been demonstrated in Italy, New Zealand and Canada for vehicles operated on natural gas [4447]. Various methods of on-board storage have been studied, such as pressurized gas, metal hydrides and liqiud hydrogen. In Pakistan the diesel-electric locomotives could be converted into hydrogen-driven vehicles by utilizing the combination of compressed hydrogen in steel cylinders and fuel cells.

178

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIROt3LU desires of the peoples to increase their standards of living doubling time Oe, and can be expressed as follows [51]: 1/Oct= 1/Oe+ 1/Oq. (8) It would be expected that energy consumption will be strongly influenced by the population growth modifier. The relation between energy consumption at the year t,, E,, and that at year t,_ 1, En-1, can be expressed as follows: E. = E. 1exp[ln2 At. Wn[1/Oqo Vqn + l/Oeo Ve.] (9) where Vq. and Vo. are the dimensionless modifiers for the doubling times Oqo and 0~o, respectively. As the population increases, the energy needs due to population growth would increase at a slower rate than the population growth since the home and office volumes per person would decrease proportionately. Hence the modifier Vq would be a weak function of the population ratio or crowding ratio as follows: Vq. = Qr~. (4) (10)

The growth modifier IV, is a dimensionless function given as the ratio of the doubling time at the initial year to that at year n (IV,= O q o / O q n ). The purpose of introduction of the growth modifier is to modify Oqo every year, since it is not a constant quantity, but varies with time depending upon the socio-economic conditions. Population, energy consumption, gross product and environmental impact are the important indicators of the socio-economic conditions of an economy. Since the growth modifier is a dimensionless quantity, it must be a function of dimensionless forms of the above mentioned indicators, which can be written as follows: Crowding ratio,
Qr. = Q./Qo;

(2)

Gross product per capita ratio,


Grq . ---

G.Qo/GoQ,,;

(3)

Environmental impact ratio,


Pr. = P . / P o .

It should be noted that the energy consumption ratio has not been included since it is almost the same as the gross product ratio. The best general form of the correlation for IV. in terms of the above parameters can be written as follows [51, 52]: . . .~. _ C/[Grq,,Pr. (5) W = A _ B G ~ --rq.p b. O . b Qr,,] where A, B, C, a, b and c are dimensionless constants. Using the statistical data available for the entire world and some subregions, these constants were calculated by Eljrushi [52]. The following equation was obtained for the growth modifier for the world, Ww,= 1.3 - 0.22GrqwPrwQr 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 w - O.08/[GrqwPrwQrw]. (6)

where x is assumed to be a very small number (x ~<0.1). The energy demand growth doubling time due to the efforts to improve the standard of living would tend to decrease with decrease in fossil fuel resources, since then more energy would be required for the resource extraction. It would also tend to decrease with an increase in energy consumption per capita. Also the world energy price increase would cause Oe to increase. Consequently, the doubling time modifier, Ve, can be correlated in the following form:
lie. = C ~ ' n R r Z / E ~ q . (11) where Cr. is the ratio of composite fossil and hydrogen energy prices, Rr. = R . / R o is the ratio of fluid fossil resources, and Erq. is the energy demand per capita normalized with respect to its initial value. The exponents y, z and v are assumed to be very small (~<0.1).

Since the above equation has been derived using the world's and large regions' data, its application to an individual country would lead to an over or underestimation of the country's parameters, depending on the conditions of the country relative to those of the world, So, the above equation has been modified in order to apply to Pakistan. The following equation has been obtained [16]: 14/",=1.30 -O.081Grq,,Pr,,Qr,,-0"219/[G~q,,Pr, o.l 0.5 0.1 Qr,]0.5 (7) 4.2. Energy demand The socio-economic development of a country entails rising levels of energy consumption. This is so because the process of development involves rapid expansion in industrial and transport sectors, mechanization of agriculture, and increased use of household electrical gadgets due to the rise in income. Energy demand has shorter doubling time than population due to the desires of peoples to improve their standards of living. Thus the energy demand growth doubling time O.t should account for the population growth doubling time O q and the

4.3. Gross national product Gross national product is a measure of the market value of a nation's total output of final goods and services. It is also accepted as a measure of a nation's economic activity and income. It has a growth rate, in general slightly higher than the energy consumption growth rate. This difference could be attributed to the continuous technological progress in improving energy conversion efficiencies and human productivity. The relationship between the gross product G, at year t, and that at year t, ~, G,_ 1, can be expressed by following exponential form [51]: exp[ln2 At. W.{1/Oqo Vq. G. = G. + 1/O.o V~. + 1/Ogo Vg.}] (12) where Ogo is the initial growth doubling time component due to the technological improvements. It is related to the doubling times of population, energy demand and gross product as follows: l/Ogt= 1/Oq q-1/Oe'k-l/Og (13)

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN where Ogt is the total gross product growth doubling time. The doubling time Og tends to decrease with increasing gross product per capita. Higher gross product per capita would promote research and development activities to improve further and therefore increase further the gross product. So the gross product doubling time modifier, Vg, could be expressed as follows: Vg. = 1/(Grq.) ~ (14) where the exponent u is assumed to be very small ( <<. O.1). 4.4. Hydrogen introduction Hydrogen will be introduced to the energy system of Pakistan in such a way that it will gradually replace the fossil fuels. The introduction rate has been chosen to be an exponential function as follows: /4. = H._ 1exp[ln2 At./Oh.] (15) where H. a n d / 4 . 1 are the hydrogen production rates, in energy units, for years " n " and "n - 1" respectively, The doubling time Oh. is a variable doubling time of hydrogen introduction. Its equation is chosen in the following form: Oh. = C~ + C2(n - 1) (16) where C~ and C2 are constants so that their values would set different scenarios for accelerated or slower hydrogen introduction rates. The hydrogen produced is considered to be consumed locally, in order to reduce the fossil fuel consumption, which in turn reduces the imports of fossil fuels. Since the hydrogen production growth rate is taken to be higher than the energy demand growth rate, then at a certain time in the future, all the local energy need would be satisfied by hydrogen only. After this future time, hydrogen production growth rate will be assumed to be the same as the energy demand (consumption) growth rate. These statements can be expressed in equation form as follows: (a) If H.qr < E,, then
Hd.= H . Fd. = E . - q~H.

179

hydrogen production rate is given by the equation (15). (b) If r/r/4. _> E. then
Fo. = 0

(21)

(22) (23)

and
H. = E./qr

The hydrogen production rate in this case would follow the energy demand for the particular year. 4.5. Energy prices Energy demand, income and the availability of energy resources are the important factors affecting the energy prices. An investigation of historical data shows that the price of fluid fossil fuels can be correlated, in terms of the above mentioned parameters as follows [52]:
0.2 .5 0.5 Crf. = 0.33 + 0.67G~w.F~q~./Rrw.

(24)

where Crr.(=Cf./Cfo) is the fossil fuel price ratio, Grw.(=Gw./GWo) the world gross product ratio, Frqw.( = Fw. Qwo/FwoQw.), the world fossil fuel consumption per capita ratio, and Rrw.( = Rw./Rwo), the world fossil fuel resources ratio. Similarly the following relationship is obtained for the world hydrogen energy prices [52]:
Crh n
=
.... 0.2 + 0"8Gr~,.Frqw./H 0.2 o.4 03

(25)

where Crh.(=Ch./Cho) is the hydrogen price ratio, and H~. ( = Hw./Hwo), the world hydrogen production ratio. In order to consider the proportionate effects of both fossil and hydrogen energy prices, a composite energy price ratio Crc. can be defined as follows [52]: Cry. = 7f. Crf. + ?h. Crh,, (26)

where 7r.(=Fw,/E~,,), the world fossil fuel consumption fraction, and 7h.(=qrHw./Ew.), the world hydrogen consumption fraction. 4.6. P V cell area and total land area Total area of PV cells A~, is given by
A~. = Ah. + Aw.

(17)

(18) (19) (20)

(27)

and
Fi. = Fo. -- Fp.

where A~. = area of PV cells for hydrogen production; A~ = area of PV cells for desalination plant. In order to avoid shading of PV panels and to allow sunshine to reach land, some spacing would be left between the panels. The total land area of the plant Ao. is given by
Ap. = A./fl

where
Hd. = Fd. = Fp. = Fi. =

hydrogen demand at year t.; fossil fuel demand at year t.; fossil fuel production at year t.; fossil fuel imports at year t..

Since a unit of hydrogen has a greater utilization efficiency than a unit of fossil energy, the factor rh, utilization efficiency ratio, has been used. For this case

(28)

where the term fl has been included to account for the unshaded area.

180

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIROQLU is taken as the ratio of cultivated land area, Aa., to the total plant a r e a Apn then An. = l a p . . (35) 4.8. Environmental damage and benefits One of the benefits in introducing the solar-hydrogen energy system as a replacement of the present fossil fuel based energy system is the reduction in air pollution, acid rains and the greenhouse effect, which result in savings in environmental damage [53]. For the case of no hydrogen introduction the environmental damage cost would be: De. = E.Cp where De. = cost of environmental damage at year t.; E. = energy consumption at year t.; Cp --- environmental damage cost per unit energy of fossil energy consumed. After hydrogen introduction, the cost of environmental damage would decrease, and it can be expressed as Bw. = E, Wa. (30) where Dh. = (Fd. + EH.)Cp (37) (36)

The area of PV cells required to meet the total hyd:ogen production at year t. can be calculated from the following equation:

Ah. = H./qpv~leiSav
where

(29)

overall system efficiency of PV plant; r/e~= efficiency of electrolyser; Say = average annual solar insolation per unit area on PV panels,
qpv =

In order to supply fresh water to electrolyser and for irrigation purposes, sea water will be desalinated using a reverse osmosis type desalination plant. Thus some additional area of PV cells would be required to supply electricity to the desalination plant. if Wd. = total water demand at year t. in m 3 y 1; E~ = energy consumption by desalination plant in GJ m -3 then

and

,4wn = Bwn/?lpvl'lregav
where

(31)

Bw. = total electrical energy required at year tn in G J; r/re = efficiency of rectifier. 4.7. Water desalination plant capacity Water demand at year t., Wd. can be written as follows:
or

Dh. = cost of damage caused by hydrogen and fossil fuel at year t.; Fd. = fossil fuel consumption (demand) at year t.; E = ratio of pollution produced by hydrogen to that by fossil fuels. The equation for savings in environmental damage, S0., at year t. can be expressed as follows: Se. = D e . - Dh. (38)

Wd. = Wh. + W~.


where Wh. = water demand for hydrogen production; W~. = water demand for irrigation, Wh. and Wi. can be calculated as follows: Wh. = W1Hn where

(32)

Se. = ,~H.Cp - eH.Cp.

(39)

(33)

4.9. Savings due to higher utilization efficiency ofhydrogen There would be savings due to the higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen as compared to fossil fuels. This could be taken into account through fuel prices. The equation for this savings, Su., at year t. can be expressed as follows: Su. = EnCfn- (H.Ch. + FdnCfn) where Cf. = the price of fossil fuels at year t.; Ch. = the price of hydrogen at year t.. 4.10. Credit for oxygen During the electrolysis of water for the production of hydrogen, a valuable by-product oxygen is also produced, which could be sold in local markets. If So. is the savings due to the credit for oxygen it can be written as So. = Coll. (41) (40)

W l = water consumption by electrolyser per GJ of hydrogen produced and

W~ = W2A..
where

(34)

A~. = total cultivated area at year t.; W2 = annual water demand for irrigation per unit area. It is assumed that some portion of the total plant area would be used for agricultural purposes, leaving some space for roads, columns of the concrete posts, etc. If 6

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN where Co = credit for oxygen per G J of hydrogen produced. 4.11. Agricultural income Annual income from the cash crops production from the land under the PV panels can be expressed as Table 4. Initial data for the world Symbol description Population, Qwo Energy demand, Ewo Gross product, Gwo Fossil energy production, Fwo Fossil fuel reserves, Rwo Pollution production, Pwo Hydrogen energy production, Ho Population growth doubling time, Oqo Energy consumption growth doubling time, Octo Energy consumption doubling time for improving quality of life, Oeo Gross product growth doubling time, Ogto Gross product doubling time due to technological advances, Ogo Fluid fossil fuel price, Cfo Hydrogen energy price, Cho Composite energy price, Co then

181

la, = FAa,
where

(42)

Value Units 5.2 109 person 28.12 101 GJ 20.19 10~2 US $ 27.8 x 10~ GJ 34.31 x I0 ~2 GJ 1.35 109 kg 3.2 109 GJ 42 18 33 15 69 8.0 22 8.34 years years years years years $ GJ$ GJ -1 $ GJ -1

la, = annual income from cash crops;


F = average income from cash crop production per unit area.

4.12. Income from hydrogen sale


Annual income from hydrogen sale can be expressed as

lhn = C h . H n
where lb. = annual income from hydrogen sale; Ch. = hydrogen price at year t..

(43)

Npn : Ac./A p.
4.13. Capital investment Major components of the capital investment are concrete posts, PV cells, electrolysers, compressors, storage, pipelines and desalination plant. The correlations calculating the investment needed in each of the above components every year will be developed below: Concrete posts. As mentioned earlier, concrete posts will be used to support the PV panels. New posts will be constructed to accommodate the additional PV area each year. If Ap -- PV cell area supported by each support; Np~ : total number of posts at year t~; Table 3. Initial data for Pakistan Symbol description Population, Qo Energy demand, Eo Gross national product, Go Fossil energy production, Fpo Fossil fuel imports, F~o Fossil fuel reserves, Ro Pollution production, Po Hydrogen energy production, H o Population growth doubling time, Oqo Energy consumption growth doubling time, Oeto Energy consumption doubling time for improving quality of life. @,o Gross product growth doubling time, O~o Gross product doubling time due to technological advances, Ogo Value 110 x 9.4 x 52.48 X 7.14 x 2.25 x 3.26 x 42.66 x 0 22 10 20 6.4 93 106 108 Units then person GJ 10 9 US $ 108 GJ l0 s GJ 10~ GJ 108 kg GJ years (?el. = C2AH years years years years where Also, if

(44)

C~ = cost of one post; Cp. = capital requirement for constructing posts at year t; ANpn = new posts needed at year t.; = N p . - Np. 1 then Co. = CIANp~ (45)

PV cells. If
AAc. = new PV cells installed at year t.; Cp~. = cost of PV cells per unit area at year tn; Cp~. = total capital requirement for PV cells at year, t,;

Cw. = AAc, Cpcn. Electrolyser. If

(46)

C 2 = capital cost of electrolyser per GJ of hydrogen produced; A H n = new hydrogen production = H~ - H~ 1 then (47)

C~1, = capital requirements for electrolyser at year t,.

Storage compression and transmission. If


C3 = capital cost of storage, compression and transmission per GJ of hydrogen,

182

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIROt~LU lines and desalination plant. The relationships calculating the annual O & M cost for each of the above components will be given here below: P V cells. If C5 = O & M cost per m 2 of PV cell area then Opv, = CsAc~ Direct connection Atmospheric pressure, unipolar electrolyser Rated voltage, Vei= 1.65 V Efficiency of electrolyser, r/eI = 90% Life time = 20 years where Opv, = total O & M cost for PV cells at year t,. (50)

Table 5. Photovoltaic-electrolysis system parameters Amorphous silicon solar cells tilted at 25 , fiat plate array PV cell efficiency, qc = 18% PV Array Balance of system efficiency, ~/b= 85% Overall PV system efficiency, qpv = 15% Life time = 30 years PV Array/ electrolyser coupling

Electrolyser

Electrolysers. If
C 6 = O & M cost ofelectrolysers per GJ of hydrogen produced then

then

Csn = C3AH
where

(48) where

Oel n =

C6H "

(51)

Cs, = total capital requirement for storage, compress/on and transmission at year t,.

Oel, = total O & M cost for electrolyser at year t,.

Storage, compression and transmission. If


C7 = O & M cost of storage, compression and transmission per G J of hydrogen, then
Osn = c 7 n "

Water desalination plant. If


C4 = capital investment required for desalination plant per m 3 of water
A m d . = W d . - - Wdn 1

(52)

then

where

Cd, = C4A Wd,


where Wd, has been defined in Section 4.9. 4.14. Operating and maintenance cost

(49)

0~, = total 0 & M cost for storage, compression and transmission at year t,.

Water desalination plant. If


C8 = 0 & M cost of water desalination plant per m 3 of water
I I I "1- . . . . I I I I I I I t---------'1" . . . . I I 1 "i- ....

Major components of operating and maintenance cost are PV cells, electrolysers, compressors, storage, pipeI I I -I'---i I f ~ t-------'-I I I I I

....

....

--~" ....

, I I + .... I I

I I
. . . .

i I

I f-~.l

~
~
:~ =~ -

2000 1500

....
.... -

I ~I---- I .... I / I I i I

;~il~lil+ I \ I I \ I

....
I

~ ....
I
1_ . . . . I I- . . . . I
. . . .

looo . . . .
.
= o

_L . . . . I__/___I .... i___~_L___i .... l l / l \l l I I/ I N, I I V I IX, I -T . . . . / I - - - - - - I . . . . . . . . . . l-'~---r .... I /I I I \ I J I I I \ I


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I
1980

I
1995

I
2010 2025

I
2040

I
2055

I
2070

YEARS

Fig, 9. Fossil fuels production rate projection of Pakistan.

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN


I I I r" I I I I I I - - - - , - - - - - , - - - , - - - , - - - , - - - - , - - - - , - - - ,

183

. . . .

4oo-----..------.------.------.------.------.------.------. l I I I I I I
~.~ . ~ 0 . . . . I---- -- - L - l - L - - - J - - - - / - - - I - - - / - - . | I I I I I " I I I 1 I .... I ~ ._----.------.------.------.----_.___.___.

'

|1

I
I I

.... I
/ . . . . I I ....

~. 25o .... .
2oo .... ~ " ....

I~ I I I I .___.___.___.___.___.___.___. I~ I I I I
I ~ I I I .,__.___.___.___.___.___.___. I

I I
I

I I
I

I .... I
I.... I ....

II I I I I I I .,----.------.------.------.------.----_.----_.

"

I
I I
ino

\1
I I
2oo.,

I
~ I
~,~o

I
', I
~,o~ ~
YEARS

I
I I

I
I I
2o~ ~

I
I I

I
I I
2o,-~

Fig. 10. PV Cells cost projection.

then Oa, = Cs Wd, where Oa, = total O & M cost of desalination plant at year t,. (53)

relating the environmental impact to the fossil fuels and hydrogen consumed can be written as follows: P, = U[Fd,+ EHpn] (54)

4.15. Environmental impact


Environmental impact (due to pollution, acid rains and the greenhouse effect) is mainly caused by the use of fossil fuels. Introduction of hydrogen in the energy sector to substitute for fossil fuels would result in reduction of the environmental impact. The equation

where P, is the amount of environmental impact at the n th year, U is the pollution per unit of the fossil energy consumed and E is the ratio of the environmental impact resulting from use of hydrogen per unit energy to that produced by fossil fuels per unit energy.

4.16. Quality of life


The quality of life would increase with increase of gross production. However, it will decrease with increase

I I I I

I I I I

I I I I

I I I

I I I I

25

.....

~ .....
I I I I

F .....
I I I I

f .....
I I I I

+ .....
I I I I

+ .....
I I I I

~ .....
I I I I

Jf. . . . . . . .
! I I I

Lkl

. . . . . . . . . . . . . I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .!
I I I ! I I

I I I I I

I I I I I

I I I

' - ' -I l : : : - - - - "


l I

I I I I

.....

"I . . . . .

"I

'~

,
1o
.....
I ,..... I I I I 5 I. .... I" . . . . . I I I

~"
I I I I I I I

.~,
I I I I I

:
..... lI . . . . .
I I I I

',
i,I . . . . .
I I

:
.:I . . . . . .

I ,..... I I I I t" I I

,I . - - - ; , - ' ~ . - i ~ ' - - - "


I I

I . . . . .
I I I I

I ! I

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I ! I I I I I I I I

Fig. 11. Doubling time of hydrogen production vs time.

184

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(3LU ~ , eh ffi2.0 +0.2(n-l) i


~,, : z.o + o.25(, - ~)i'
I I I I

i
": : ~
~

'

'

- -

~ o i i o o |

o o | i o ~ o o o

--

--

--

--

o o

i ~ i | o

i | ~

o o

~ i i
~ o

| 0
o

~ i
o i

i i ,
~ o

i
i i !
o o

i i i
o o

i I
~ o

0 i
|

' "~ 0

i ' ..........................

iii
2035 2060

100

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a ........

~ ........

1
t

1
t

!
1900

I
2005 2020 20(15 20(10 ~ 2110

Fig. 12. Population projection for Pakistan.

in population and increase with environmental impact, Using these factors in dimensionless form, the quality of life indicator, Lr,, can be expressed as follows: Lr, , -~ Gr,,/Qr,,Pr, , (55) where Gr,(= G , , / G o ) is the gross product normalized with respect to its initial value. 5. DATA A N D C O M P U T A T I O N Taking the year 1990 as the initial year, the future trends of the parameters described in Section 3 have been studied. The differential time interval At was taken as one year. The initial conditions for Pakistan and the world, for the year 1990, were taken from references

and/or computed using the applicable relationships, and are summarized in Tables 3 and 4 respectively. Three different rates of hydrogen doubling time were chosen, to show the effect of the hydrogen introduction on population, energy demand, gross production, pollution, etc. Oh, = 2.0 + 0.2(n -- 1) (56) Oh, = 2.0 + 0.25(n -- 1) Or~ = oo. (57) (58)

The doubling time given by equation (56) represents the fastest hydrogen introduction rate followed by a slower introduction rate as given by equation (57). The case

Olin = ~

2.0

+ +

O~2,(rl - 1 ) 0.25(n1)

ffi 2 . 0

i
, I
........ L ........ ,

!
..... r ........ i ........ i
, ,

. . . . . . . .

........
/ l J _.-.4,.--"--~ 7 T ;

L. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , t

~ ................

,a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10(]00

........

5000

........

a i | i i ~. . . . . . . . .

t. ........ s i

~ ........ I t i i i i I

~,. . . . . . J i i i

. ........ i i u M i i J

. ........ | i |

4 ........ i t

., . . . . . . . . i | |

4 ........ i i

4 ......... i i . .......

'

19110

2005

2020

2035

2060

2065

20eO

201)5

2110

Fig. 13. Energy demand projection for Pakistan.

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN

Oh==2"O+O'2(n'l) i

185

oh, = 2.0 + 0.25(,- ~) i

(/) 5000

i
........ ........ i
i i i

e~=
.................

:
........ ~

L .......

l .~. . . . . . .
i I

........

........
i

., . . . . . . . . .
i i

: I : :

: i

i ,

: i ,

!
2000
........ L ........

i
I
" ........

i
l

- ~ ' ~ - - ~ - ~ " - i
:

''
:

:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ii
:

i]i
: , ........

1000

......

'

'

......

, ........

n........

u. . . . . . . .

, ........

, .......

lggO

200~

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

2110

WARS

Fig. 14. Gross national product per capita vs time. with doubling time equals to infinity corresponds to no hydrogen introduction or all fossil fuel system, It has been assumed that solar-hydrogen production will start at the year 2000 with the initial hydrogen production rate given as follows: for 1990 ~< t < 2000 for t = 2000 H, = 32 x 106 GJ yr ~ (60) Average annual global insolation in Baluchistan is 7.03 GJ m - : yr-~. The average annual insolation on the PV panels tilted equal to the site's latitude has been calculated using Liu and Jordan correlation [54], i.e.
Say =

The technical characteristics and different assumptions used for various parameters of the PV-electrolysis systern are summarized in Table 5 [18, 19, 55]. The utilization efficiency ratio/'/r, included in equation (17) (hydrogen utilization efficiency divided by fossil fuel utilization efficiency) is taken as [51] ~/r = 1.36. (62)

H~ = 0

(59)

The environmental impact coefficients U and E in equation (27) are taken as [51]: U = 4.74 kg GJ i of fossil fuels; E = 0.04. (63) (64)

7.61 GJ m ~ yr -1.
Demand
Energy Production

(61)

As mentioned in Section 1.2, with the present exponential growth rate of fossil fuel consumption, the

Energy Hydrogen

F ~ . F.e ~ o d

t ........
i

t ........ !
t

20+
2,5000

:
i i i i

........

i
M t

i
i

i J

20000

........

(- . . . . . . . .

~. . . . . . . . .

,, . . . . . . . .

~.. . . .
, : i , : ,

. .......

~
I~000

,
: , i

,
: , i

,
: , i i i

:
, i ,

........ I"........ t ........ f ................................................

10000

........

- ........ I I I | Z I

. z z I z z I

........

. . . . . . . . . . I I I I * I

. ........

, ........

. ........

Z I I I

. ........ J

4 ........ I

I
i

e I

i i |

i i i

i i i

10110

2005

2020

2035

2050

20~

2080

201)5

2110

~4RS

Fig. 15. Energy demand, hydrogen energy production and fossil energy demand (accelerated hydrogen case).

186

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(3LU


Demand
Energy Demand + 0.25(n - 1) Production t ........ , ,' , l
i

Ener~ Hydrogen Fossil Oh, =

~000

Fuel 2.0

~ ........ , ,' , i ,

t ........ ,' , i ,

.........

i ,

i .

i i

l , i i

.,~.~ 2 0 0 0 0

........ [-........ I- ........ I, ........ ~. . . . . . . . . . . . .


' I
i

'

I
L,. . . . . . . .

I
I.,. . . . . . . .

I
I

I
. . . . . . . I. . . .

LI!
| | i

I
'........

15000

........

,: . . . . . . . .

' _ ......

"........

!
10000 ........ ,. . . . . . . . . 1, i i ,

i
t. . . . . . . . . i , , |

1 . .
i | i . . .

. ........

. ........

. ........

. ........
, ,

4 ........
i i

........

, i

i. ........

,. . t

. i

. i , i I i i

1990

2005

2020

203~

2060

20(15

2080

2005

2110

Fig. 16. Energy demand, hydrogen energy production and fossil energy demand (slow hydrogen case).

present proven reserves of Pakistan would last only 21 years. Even if new discoveries should result in doubling the reserves, this period would increase by only 8 years. However, it is not likely that such exponential growth would continue until a resource is totally depleted. Instead a symmetrical production curve with an exponential growth and decline, the two curves being arbitrarily connected by a smooth peak, should be employed, For such symmetrical production function, the peak in production occurs when a reserve is half exhausted, not at the depletion of reserve [56]. Figure 9 shows such a symmetrical production curve for the fossil fuel production rate, F o, for Pakistan. In order to avoid the shading of the PV panels, and provide 50% sunshine for the land underneath, the

term fl as mentioned in equation (30) has been calculated as [16]: # = 0.34. (65)

It has been assumed to use a reverse-osmosis type desalination plant with its energy consumption per m 3 of fresh water, El, given as follows [49]: E] = 2.016 x 10 -z GJ m -3. (66)

The efficiency of the rectifier, r/re, to be used in the desalination plant has been taken as, r/re = 0.93. (67)

.. o 2o 02(.
Oh. = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n
o= ,-.20000

i
- l) [

i
!

i
i

i
I

I
I

I = -: -=
T

Fig. 17. Effect of hydrogen introduction on fossil fuel demand.

otto.1 SA (ose0 ua$oap,~q paleaOlg~e ) uo!lanpoad l~nJ l!SSOjpue slJodtu! SlOnj I!SSOj'puetuop 1/aOU~l'6I "girl
0LLg ~0 0~0 ~0 ~ ~ 0~t0 g0O ~IIL

........ t . . . . . . t . . . . . . t . . . . .
,
......... ," . . . . . . . .

t.
I
" ........

.
l

.
* ........

.
I

.
I

.
........

.
"~. . . . . . . .

'0~
O000t

,
," . . . . . . . .

,
" ........

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* ........

.........

I- . . . . . . . .

I- . . . . . . . .

I. . . . . . . . .

I. .

00~t

.........

'. . . ' .
t ........

I". . . . . . . .

t ........

I".

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

i_/__!
,
,, , _ ~

i
.

0000~

,
........

,,,,,,,, ,,
,. _ . ..._ ._ . ._ . _ ., _ . _.... ~ ....

,,

,,,
_ _ . .~ ~

-,
~ . ~_ o

i, ,
. o ~.

,
, .~
laodull

,
. ,oo~ _
Ion:]

..o ~ _
L'Tsso~]

,,0~
*

pumu~(l

~satr~

(gL)

00L$ = ~D

(IL)

, fO ~;9'015 = dD

:[65 'LS] s~ pglem!lsg uo~q seq 's~eg 001 JO otu!l oJ![ g ql!Ax 'lsod ol~Jouoo qolza JO lsoo gq.L (tzL) "~tu 817 = dV

:[8] S~OllOJ se ua~tm uooq sl3q slonj l!ssoj jo lsoo ol]etu~p lm,uotuuo.i!AUO [~lOL (0L) "9"0 =
q

:[65] se UO>lel s~ ' dv ' l s o d oloaouoo tpeo Xq polaoddns eoae ilOO Ad oq.L (EL) '~ tu~I~0I x figs = d

:s,,OlIO J s~ uo~Iel s~ (LO UOTlenbo u! p snq.L "uo!leA!lln3 .loj posn oq plnoAx eoae lueld Ad ImOl oql j o %09 leql potunssl~ uooq seq 1I (69) "~ J,~z tu~Ictu~01 x lr'll = : ~

:[85 '5] S~OllOJ s~ u ~ t m uo~q seq ' 3 ':tu~l ~od otuo3u! l~nuu~ o~eagAe ~qdL (EL) "ZHJ t - f D 58'I$ = D

:[85 'ES] s~olloJ se uo>lel uooq seq ':A,I 'eoae l!un aod UOTle~!~! Joj puetuop a01eA~ i e n u u v (89) < H J I fD ,]ol'e~ jo ctu c_0[ x 9 = IA, l

:[6I] se ua>Iel u~x I seq D 'po3npoad :[L5 '61] 'se ug~Im s! '~.4t 'pg3npo~d uo~oapq j o fD aod uoi~xo .toj l!poao lonpoJd-,~q oqAL uo~oapq jo fD aod aos1o~13OlO q uo!ldmnsuoo .~Ol~A~ otu!l SA (0Se3 u0$oapgq-ou) uo!lanpoad lonj [.tssoj pu~ slaodtu! slonJ i!ssoj 'puemop ~'aou~ "81 ~!d
0 t L~
gSO~ OGO ggO OgO gO~ 07,0 gOO

~(IL

.........

, ........

, .................

. .........

- .......

; . . . . . . . . . . . . .

; ........

I ........

I
,
........ ; ........
i i
. .

~ I
; ........
i i
. .

~ I
; ........
, ,
.

I t
; ........
, ,

I / / I
I I ........
t

I I
I ........
i i

:
I ........
,

; ........
= |

0000~

'
i |

;
i

I
i

I
i

O00GL

"11
o-

, ,

,
,

,
I

,
;

,
~

,
;

,
I

....... ~

. . . . . . . . . . i .........................
!

oooo~

........

& ........

L .......

~.. . . . . . . .

[ ........

~.. . . . . . . .

l ........

uollz'npoad

lan~l

ItSSOrl

J /
I

LSI

NVISDIVd NOd LrdfllDD_'dZSV'tldNl ArD~I~IN~]

188
Energy Fossil Fossil Oh =

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(3LU


Demand Fuel Fuel 2.0 + Import Production 025{n f ........ | - 1"I t ........ , ! ........ | , t ........ , ~ 4 {

...........
~

..~K 2 0 0 0 0 G~

........

* * , , , . I. . . . . .. . . .

, , , , , I. . . .. . . . . . , |, * ,. , ................ ~ , || ~ ........ ,, i

, i , t i ,. ........ , |* | I" | , ,, * ....... ,|

, , , , , ~..

15000

* i , , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I" , t , , ........ ~ ........ ,, *

, , , x . . . . . ... . . . , , , , * ........

, , , , x . . . . . .. . . . .. | , | * ........ ,,

: iiii:::ijiii :i:il
| | | , , | | , I * . . . . . . . . . . . . i , * . a ... . . . . . . . . ... . . ... . . . J ~ ........

!ii]i
.

, * a .................

, ........ ,. ,

10000

:
,

~ ........

~ ........ , :

:
1000 2005

i
2020

',
2035

i
2050

1
2065

. . . . .
2000 2095 2110

Fig. 20. Energy demand, fossil fuels imports and fossil fuel production (slow hydrogen case) vs time. The cost of the PV cell per m 2, C~,, has been taken from the Fig. 10, which shows the cost projection of PV cells per unit area [16, 18, 22, 60]. Capital cost of electrolyser per GJ of hydrogen produced, C~ is taken as [19]: C2 = $2.25 GJ ] of H 2. (76) With a lifetime of about 30 years, the capital cost for storage, compression and transmission per GJ of hydrogen produced, C3 is taken as [19]: C 3 = $1.38 GJ I of H2. (77) Capital investment required for desalination plant per m 3 of water, with a life time of 30 years, (?4 is given as follows [49, 50]: C4 = 0.4 m -3 of water. (78) The annual operating and maintenance cost per m 2 of PV cell area, C5 is taken as, [18, 19]:

Cs = $0.45 m -2 of PV cell area.

(79)

The annual O & M cost per GJ of hydrogen produced, C 6 and C7 required for electrolyser and storage, cornpression and transmission, respectively, is given as follows [18, 19]: C 6 = $0.45 GJ -l of H 2 (80) C7 = $0.74 GJ ~ of H 2. (81)

The annual O & M cost required for desalination plant per m 3 of water, C8, is taken as [49, 50]: C8 = $0.3 m 3 of water. (82)

~ '~

Fossil Hydrogen

~.
._~_

'

l i I I i i i
,- . . . . . i

I i I I
i

I i
~--

I l i I i I i I # I I_~ _ _ I _ _ _ ! ~,_ _~ _ _ i I i
i i

I ! i I i
-., I

I
l . -

I
x ~ -

I
x

"

I I I I i
i

i i I i I
i

l I l l i
., ...... i

v~

15

. . . . . . .

. . . . .

., . . . . .

i I
I I . . . . . . . .

I
I

i I
I

i I
I

i I
I

i i
I

l I
I

l i
i

I
10 . . . . . i ~- . i

i
i . . . .

I
I . i . . . .

i
I . . i

i
i I

i
I 4 . . . . . !

i
I 4 . . . . .

i
I 4 . . . . . .

l I I
I . . . . t . . . . . ! !

I
I

I
i . _

I
, _ _

I
_ _

I
, f . _

I I I
I

l i
I ~ . . . . .

l i
! " . . . . .
/

I I
I : . . . . . ! i

l I
! *

l I
I

I
I

.............................

I
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 YEARS Fig. 21. Hydrogen and fossil fuel price projection. ~ 2010 2095 2110

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN


en,
oh.

189 1
,' *
. . . . . .

1
= = 2.0 2.0 + + 0.2(n 0.25( - 1) n'l-i : ) i

1
,' i I

1
: i I

1
I i I
~ -

1
,' i I
~

1
,' _ t ~

~rm

.....

t .....
I I I I I L . . . . . l I I I I I ~- . . . . . I I II I I r . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . .

t .....
I I I I I I. . . . . . I I I I I I - . . . . . l I I I I I I" . . . . . I I I I
. . . . .

~ .....
I I I I I J. . . . . . I I I I I I 4- . . . . . I I I I I I T . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . .

.....

. . . . .

~,

300

. . . . .

225

. . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I J. . . . . . J. . I I I I I I I I . . . . I I I I I I 1" . I I I

I I I I I .L . . . . . I I I I I I ,i . . . . . I I 1 I l I "V . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . . . .

I I I 1 -~ . . . . . I I I I I I "T . . . . . I I ! I
. . . . . . . . .

I I I I I d . . . . . I I I I I I 4 . . . . . I I I I I I ~t . . . . . I I I I
. .

I I I I I J . . . . . . I I I I I I ,4 . . . . . . I I I I I I "1 . . . . . . I l I I

I~I0

. . . . .

. I I I

7,

I I I _ _. _-

I I I 1

I I I

I I i

I I I

I l 1

I l i

I I I

Fig. 22. Savings due to higher utilization eflSciency of hydrogen vs time. The equations (1) through (55) presented in Section 4 equations (56) through (82) presented in this section were programmed for a VAX 8650 computer [16]. Using the initial data presented in Tables 3 and 4, computations have been carried out for two hydrogen introduction scenarios in order to calculate the solar-hydrogen energy system parameters for Pakistan for years 1990 through 2110. In addition one set of calculations were carried out for no hydrogen introduction, namely for an all fossil fuel case for comparison with the solar-hydrogen energy system, 6. RESULTS A N D DISCUSSION The results of the solar-hydrogen energy system model developed are presented in Figs 11-42. The results Oh.= 2.0 + 0.2(n- 1) [
Oh, = 2.0 + 0.25(n t - 1) t

are plotted for the three different scenarios discussed earlier to show the effect of hydrogen introduction rate into the energy system on the following parameters: population, energy demand (fossil + hydrogen), energy production (fossil + hydrogen), gross product, fossil energy imports, world energy prices, environmental savings due to hydrogen introduction, savings due to the higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen, by-product credit, agricultural income, photovoltaic cell area, total land area, water desalination plant capacity, total capital investment, total operating and maintenance cost, total net income from the system, environmental impact and quality of life. Figure 11 shows the doubling times variations for the accelerated and the slow hydrogen introduction cases. Figure 12 presents the population projection for ;
I I ;

I I I

;
! ! i

i
I

" I
.....
I

; I
4
I I . . I I I I I . I I I
. . . . . .

~oo

.....

r .....
I I L . . . . . I I I I I 6. . . . . . I I I I- . . . . . ! I I I r . . . . . I I I

r .....
! I I. . . . . . I I * I I ~. . . . . . I I I r . . . . . I I I I r . . . . . I I I

F .....
I ! J. . . . . . I I | I I k . . . . . I I I 1- . . . . . I I I I r . . . . . I I t

~ .....
I

.....
t

k . ' ~ - ~ - - t
I I I I I I I

250

. . . . .

200 ' 150

. . . . .

.... i_/,,, iiJ


.... . . . .
,L. . . . .
I I I I I I I I I 1- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I I J. . . . . . J. I I I I I I . . . . . . . . . .

I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I I l I I I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . '

/i/
. . .

i
I I I I I I I

ii
I I I I I I I I I I
.

I I I . . . . . . . .

i
I I I I I I I
. . .

100

. . . . .

I I I I I I . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I

I I I I . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5o

.....

'
I I I

F .....

'

F.
1

I I I

I I I

I I I

J i
. . . .

I I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

1990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2080

2095

2110

YEARS
Fig. 23.

Environmental savings vs time.

190

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(~LU

oh. - 2.0 + o.z(n - 1) : oh~ = 2.0 + O . ~ ( n - l ) l

1
'

'
,

20

. . . . .

10

. . . . .

I I I I I I I i- . . . . . I I I I I I I I- . . . . . I I I I I

I ! I I ! I I e,. . . . . . I I I I ! I I i. . . . . . I I I I I

I I I I I I I ~. . . . . . I I I I I 1 I ,I. . . . . I I I I

I I I I I I I ,i. . . . . I I I I I ,I; I I I I

I I 1 I I I I .l. I I I I I I

....

---.I. I I I I I

. . . . .

I I I 4. . . . . . I I I I I I I 4. . . . . . I I I I I

4 . . . . . I I I I ! I I ,. . . . . . I I I I I

,4 . . . . . I I I I ! I I 4 . . . . . I I I I I

4 ...... I I I I I I I .4 . . . . . . I I I I I

1990

2005

2020

2038

2080

2065

20eO

2085

2110

~.NtS

Fig. 24. By-product credit for oxygen vs time. Pakistan. For the case of no hydrogen introduction population would stabilize at 485 million about the year 2070. This is about 4.4 times that of the 1990 value. This is in fair agreement with the World Bank estimate, which projects a stabilized population of about 500 million [11]. If hydrogen is introduced at an accelerated rate the population would reach about 5 times that of the initial year about the year 2080, and thereafter would remain nearly constant. The slower hydrogen introduction rate would delay this effect by about 15 years. The increase in population could essentially be attributed to the cleaner environment, which would result from the introduction of the solar-hydrogen energy system. Figure 13 gives the energy demand (or consumption) projection, and the effect of hydrogen introduction on energy demand. If no hydrogen is introduced, the annual energy demand would reach a maximum of 22,000 PJ about the year 2075, and thereafter would remain constant. The introduction of hydrogen, whether at accelerated or at slower rate would not have any profound effect on energy demand, until after 2030. For the both cases a higher plateau of steady-state would be reached with the energy demand about 33 times that of the initial year around 2080 to 2095, depending on the rate of hydrogen introduction. This increase in energy consumption is due to the increase in population and the growth in the standard of living. Figure 14 shows gross national product per capita in 1990 U.S. $. It can be seen that the gross product per capita would stabilize at about $4,800 for the hydrogen case---about $1,100 more than that of no-hydrogen case. This increase is mainly caused by higher utilization

e~. : 2.o + o.2(.- ]/ [


Oh~ = 2.0 + 0.25(n - l) ! ,

,;
I i

,;
! i

,;
! m

,;
I m

,;
I i

,;
I i

~o
~.~ 25

.....

r .....
! I I I L . . . . . I l I I I I I I I I le . . . . . I I I I I r . . . . . I I i I

r .....
I I I I 1. . . . . . I I I I I I I I I s" . . . . . I I I I I r . . . . . I I I i

I- . . . . .
I I I I & . . . . . I | I I I I l I I I '1- . . . . . I I I 1 I r . . . . . ! I I i

~ .....
! I I I J. . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I t . I I I I I . .

t .....
! I I I J. . I I I

t .....
! I

......
I I I J ...... I I I I I I I I I I ,.t . . . . . . I I I I I I ...... I i I i
. . . . . .

. . . . .

I I I I I I "r . . . . . I I ! I I T . . . . . i ! i ! I I

! .1 . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I' . . . . . I I I I 1 . . . . . i i I I I I

I I I J . . . . . I I I I I I ! I I I ,.t . . . . . I I I I I 1 . . . . . i i I i I I

15 I

. . . . .

10

. . . . .

I T . . . . . I I i I I I

.....

E .....
I I

,L . . . . .
I I

f
I I I

| I

Fig. 25. Agricultural income vs time.

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN ;


Oh, = 2.0 + 0.2(n - 1) i
I

191
',
, | ! ~ ...... ! I
I I I

;
t
!

;
I !

;
I
I

;
t I I '1 . . . . . I I !
I I

1110 . . . . .

= 2.0 + 0.2,(-,):
t,- . . . . . ! I
I I I r . . . . .

:
1' . . . . . I I
I I I

[
. . . .

I I
I I I

I I 'l- . . . . . I I
I I I

I I 1' . I I
I I

I ..t . . . . . I I
I I I

I I
44, 120 . . . . . t- . . . . .

I I
o- . . . . .

I
I ~- . . . . .

I I
4. . . . .

I I
. . . . . .

I I
.t . . . . .

I I
4 . . . . .

I
I '4 . . . . . .

i i I I 1 I
I

I I i I i I
I

I I
I

o !
I

I I
I

I I
I

1 I
I

I i
I

I I I
I

I I I
I

I I !
I

i i I
I

I I I
I

i I i
I

IX)

. . . . .

I- . . . . . ! I I I I I

l- . . . . . I I I I I I I

i,. . . . . . I I I I I I I I
I I

~. . I I I I

. I I ! I I

4. . . . . . I t ! l ! I !

4 . . . . . I I I I I I I

4 . . . . . I I I I I I I I

.4 . . . . . . I I I I I I I

4o . . . . . . . . . . .

t .....
I
I I

; ........................
I I

~ ............
I

I I

1:1~10 2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

2110

Fig. 26. Income from hydrogen sale vs time.

efficiency and much lower environmental damage of the solar hydrogen energy system, Figures 15 and 16 show the energy demand (consumption), hydrogen energy production and fossil energy demand for the accelerated and slow hydrogen introduction cases respectively. As can be seen from Fig. 15, hydrogen energy production would catch the energy demand by the year 2050, after which the country would be independent of fossil energy. Slower introduction of hydrogen would delay this effect by about 20 years as can be seen from Fig. 16. Figure 17 presents the effect of hydrogen introduction on fossil energy demand. For the accelerated hydrogen introduction case the annual fossil energy demand would reach to 5,100 PJ around the year 2030 and by the year 2050 the country would no longer depend on fossil o.. = zo + o.2(~- 1) ; :
Ohn = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1) :

energy. Slower introduction of hydrogen would result in higher peak of about 9,000 PJ around the year 2040 and the fossil energy requirement would be eliminated by the year 2070. For the case of no hydrogen case, the fossil energy demand would reach its stabilized value of about 22,000 PJ around the year 2080. Figures 18, 19 and 20 show the effect of hydrogen introduction on fossil fuel imports. For the total fossil fuel energy system (no-hydrogen case), the annual fossil fuel imports would reach its steady state value of about 22,000 PJ around the year 2080, as can be seen from Fig. 18. If hydrogen is introduced at an accelerated rate, the peak fossil fuel imports of about 3,500 PJ yr- l would reach around 2035, and by the year 2050 the country would become independent on fossil fuel imports as shown in Fig. 19. Domestically produced fossil fuels i :
:

; :
:

i :
:

I :
~ .....
I

~" 25
(/~

.....

r .....
I I !

r .....

f .....

f .....

.....

~t . . . . .
I I I

~ .....
I I

q ......

I I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15

i ,
5

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
! ! ! I I I ! I I I I ! ! I I I I I I I I I ! s I I

- ....

i
cell

'

Fig.

27. Total

PV

area vs time.

192

N. LUTFI
Oh. = 2.0 + 0.2(n- 1) [
*-r

AND

T. N . V E Z I R O ( 3 L U
;
l

_-.::-'oLo2:. ::_[
,ie
i J i

[
s
. . . i . .

. . . . . . . . . i
i , i J J

f ........ ,

#.

~,

l , i

,,

fl
l ; J

f I,

| i a

l J

I e I i

I I
i

I I
i i |

........ ......... ' I I" . . lI........ , . I........ 4. I l ........ ~i]~[i] I I....... ]]]i l I * [[[[ ....... ]] ]i] I........ i] ]i[[ ] i I4 I .........
, | i i i

;
,

| |

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,
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i J

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I
i a ,

! i

.......

" F. . . . . . . . . .
i i , i

~,.. . . . . . . . .
i ~ ,
i. . . . . . . . .

f ........
i i i ,
* . I i

t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
i i i i
.i . . . . . . . . i i

l.il_,i
.

i i i
i i i | i i a i l i i , , l
.l . . . . . . . . , ,

. . . . . . . .

i. . . . . . . . . i i

i i I
. . . . . . . .

* . . . . . . . . i i

i 1 i

i , i
.e . . . . . . . . i i

.i . . . . . . . . . i i

i i i ,

,o

........

, . . . .,. . . .
'

........

........

: I I .
1990

1 2008

I
2020 2035 2060 2065 2080 20~S 2110

Fig. 28. Total

PV plant

area vs time.

would be needed till the year 2065 at continuously decreasing rates. If hydrogen is introduced at the slower rate, the peak fossil fuel import would reach a higher value of 8,000 PJ yr-~ around the year 2040 as can be seen from Fig. 20. This would delay the independence from imported energy by 20 years. Figure 21 shows both the fossil and hydrogen energy priced projections. It shows that the hydrogen energy would start competing with fossil energy by the year 2010. It should be noted that if we include utilization penalty, and cost of environmental damage to the cost of fossil fuels, hydrogen would be cheaper by 1995. Figure 22 shows the savings due to higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen. By the end of the next century this saving would become around $380 billion per year.

Figure 23 presents the annual savings from avoidance of environmental damage due to the replacement of fossil fuels by solar hydrogen. When the steady-state conditions are attained, the annual savings reach $315 billions. Figure 24 gives the oxygen by-product credit, which would generate about $42 billion per year by the end of the next century. Figure 25 shows the income from the production of cash crops, which will be grown under the photovoltaic panels. This income would reach about $29 billion per year by the year 2095. It could be increased by having double crops per year. Figure 26 shows the annual income from the domestic sale of hydrogen. This income would reach

Oha = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 ( n

- 1)

I;
I

t[
I

o;
I

o,, = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1)


'is ..... r ..........
I I I i i 100 . . . . . 1I . . . . . I i I i I I ~ . . . . . I I l I I I I I I I
. . . . . . . . . . .

i
F .....
I I i i

,
I

'

'
I I I I i I .I . . . . . I i i ! i i 4 . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I
. . . . . . . . . .

i
I

f .....
I I i I iI. . . . . . I i i i i i . . . I ! I I I I I I

t .....
I I i I J. I I

#-----~g-~j=4-'~
I I I I

......

75 i

. . . . .

L . . . . . I I I i i I ~ . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I
. . . . .

L I . . . . . I I I i i i ~ . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I
. . . . .

.... i ! i ! 4' . . . . . l I I I I I I I I I
. . . . . . . . .

J. I . . . . . I i i i i i 4 . . . . . l I I I I I I I I I
.

.1 i ...... I I i i i i 4 ...... I I I I I I I I I I
. . .

__

I I I I
. . . . .

I I I

I I

i I I

I I

i I I

I I I

I I I

i I I

I I I

Fig.

29. W a t e r

desalination

plant

capacity

vs time.

ENERGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

FOR

PAKISTAN

193
; ;
I

e,.

2.0

+ o.2(n -

1) i
I

;
I

;
I

;
I

;
I

e,. = 2.o + 0.25(n- 1]',

:
I'---x-'l"
I I I I I J,. I I i I I
. . .

',

:
I I I l I ,1. . . . . . I i I I I l
. . .

[
! I I I I .I . . . . I

l
I I I I I J . . . . . . I I I I l I
. .

25 . . . . .
20

r..... r.....
I I I l I I. . . . . . , , i i l I
i- . . . . .

I- . . . . .
I I I I 1 J. . . . . . I i i i I I
c.

. . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . t . . . . . t ......
I I I I I t I l I ,L . . . . . . . I I I l

. . . . .

I I I I i . . . . . i , i i I i
e- . . . . .

15
--

. . . . .

10

. . . . .

I I I I I l r' . . . . . i l I I
. . . . .

I I I I I I r . . . . . I I I I
. . .

I I I I I I t . I l I I
. .

I
. . . .

I I T . . . . . I l t I
. . . .

I I "r . . . . . I I I I
. . .

I I "lr . . . . . I I I I
. . .

I I I "I . . . . . I I I I
. . .

I I I 1 . . . . . . i I I I
. .

I I I

I I I

I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

Fig. 30. Capital requirements for PV cells vs time. about $180 billion per year by the end of the next century, Figures 27 and 28 present the total PV cell area and the total land area requirements for the PV plant respectively, as a function of time. About 22,000 km 2 of PV cell area would be required when the system reaches its stabilized conditions by the end of the next century. The corresponding land requirement would be 64,000 km 2. This is about 8% of the total area of Pakistan or 17% of the area of Baluchistan. Figure 29 gives the water desalination plant capacity vs time. As can be seen from the figure, the capacity of the desalination plant would reach 125 x 10 6 m 3 day-L by the end of the next century. Figure 30 shows the annual capital requirements for the PV cells. As can be seen from the figure, the peak
ohm= 2.0t-0.2(n-1)
,2

capital requirements for the accelerated hydrogen case would reach to about $25 billion by the year 2045. The slower introduction of hydrogen would result in lower peak of about $20 billion by the year 2065. The reason for this lower peak is due to the slower increase in PV cell area requirement, and due to continuous decrease of PV cell cost. For the accelerated hydrogen introduction case, there are two other peaks around the year 2075 and 2105. These are due to the fact that the PV cell lifetime has been assumed to be 30 years, and therefore the replacement of old PV cells would have to be included. Similar trend can be seen for the slower hydrogen introduction case. Figure 31 shows the annual capital requirements for the construction of the concrete posts. The peak capital requirements for the accelerated hydrogen introduction
; ; ; ;

o~. = 2.o + o.25(~ - 1)', ,: : ,' I ..... r........... r . . . . . t - - t - * I . . . . . 1. . . . . . . . . . .


. . . . . I a I I L . . . . . I I I | I J. . . . . . I I I i I I I I I I r . . . . . I I I I I I i I I I I I I L . . . . . I I I I I I I I I ~.! I I I I I e I I J. . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I I .L . . . . . I .L . . . . . I I I I I I I I I I ,It . . . . . I I I I I

10
,~

I i I I .t . . . . . t I I | I

,' 1 I 4. . . . . ~ ......
I I i I .J . . . . . I I I i I

~E 0 ~'~ 15 . . . . .

.....

r .....
I I I I

I I I I I I- . . . . . I I I I I

r .....

rI I

t l I 1 I t- . ! l I I I

I I I I I I I I i I I I I

. . . .

--i-

--1

.....

1 .....
! I I I

t I I I I -I . . . . . I I I I I

I I I I I -i . . . . . . I I I I I

| I I I I I

I I I I

.....

I- .....
I I

I- .
I I

.
I

.
I I

.
I I I I

-I, .....
I I

-I
I

Fig. 31. Capital requirements

for concrete posts vs time.

194

N. L U T F I A N D

T. N. V E Z I R O I 3 L U

e,. = 2.0 + o.2(.- 1) ; ! oh. = 2.0 + 0.25(n 1)


-

[
i

; '

; , J
I

; :
I

, I

; '
I I

, I

; ,
i I i

.....
. . . . .

F ..... F .....
I i L . . . . . I I I I I 6" I . . . . . I i I I s- . . . . . I i I I I r . . . . . I i I I I i I. . . . . . I I I I I 6i . . . . . i I I I t" . . . . . I I I i i r . . . . . I I I i

,~.....
i I k . . . . . I I I I I

F I .....
I ,t. . . . . I "-[~-'l I I I I

+ i .....
I i .IL . I I I I . . .

:~.....

l-~---l-=~-q ! I
I . . . . . . . .

......

9ai

I 4I . . . . . I ! I i 1' . . . . . I ! ! I I T . . . . . I i I I 4i . . . . . i ! i i -t . . . . . i i I I i . . . . . I I i l

I 4i . . . . . I I I i -t . . . . . i ! I I i "1 . . . . . I I I i

I -4 i ...... i I i i -t ...... i i I I i "1 . . . . . . I i ! i

2.0

. . . . .

1.5

. . . . .

1.0

. . . . .

~. i . . . . . I . . . . . 1 I I I I i I i i I I f . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I i i I i i I I I I I r . . . . v . . . . T . . . . . I I i I i i I I I i

4.

..... !".....
i IOQO

i ..... !..... ! ..... ! ......


i i i i 2008 2080 2005 2110

2005

2020

2035

2050

Fig. 32. Capital requirements for electrolysers vs time.

case would reach to about $12 billion per year by the year 2045. The slower introduction of hydrogen would delay this effect by 20 years, and result in a lower peak of about $9.4 billion. Since the lifetime of concrete post has been assumed to 100 years a slight increase in capital requirements can be seen around the year 2100. Figure 32 shows the capital requirements for the electrolysers. As can be seen from the figure the annual capital requirement for the accelerated hydrogen case would reach to about $2.5 billion around the year 2045 followed by three peaks each with intervals of 20 years, These are due to the 20 year life time assumption for the electrolysers. Similar trends can be seen for the slower hydrogen introduction case.

Figure 33 presents the annual capital requirements for the storage, transmission and compression of hydrogen. For the accelerated hydrogen case the annual capital requirements would reach about $1.3 billion followed by two peaks of about $1.4 billion each with an interval of 30 years. Slower introduction of hydrogen has similar trends. Figure 34 gives the annual capital requirements for water desalination plant. For the two cases of hydrogen introduction it would reach about 0.54 billion and 0.52 billion by the years 2045 and 2065 respectively. The peaks are due to the 30 year life time assumption of the desalination plant. Figures 30-34 clearly shows that the major component of the capital requirements is PV cells followed by the concrete posts.

eh. = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1):

Oh~ = 2.0 + 0.2(n- 1) ; I

; I :
I ! I i J.-. 1 I I I ! ~ I -I I . . . . .

; I ,'
I ! i i _,L . . . . . . . I I I I I + . . .

; ,:
I I i

; ,[

; ,l

1.15 . . . . .
1.2 . . . . .

r .....
l I I I 8. . . . . . I I I I

r . . . . . ~r . . . . . it . . . . . t . . . . . Jr . . . . . 1. . . . . 4. . . . . 4. . . . . .
I I i I L . . . . . I I ! I I ~I . . . . . i I I r . . . . . I i I I i
r . . . . .

I i I J. . . . . . I I I I I ~I . . . . . I I I t . . . . i i i i I
r . . .

I I I i i I n . . . . . . . . . . . . I I I l . . . . . . I I "t . . . . . I i I I i
I . . . . .

1.0

. . . . .

0.8

. . . . .

i oI . . . . . i I 1 ~" . . . . . I 1 i I 1
r . . . . .

. I I I I i

i I "t . . . . . ! i i I I
i . . . . .

I I "t . . . . . I I i I i
. . . . .

I I '1 . . . . . . I I i I i
I ......

0.5

. . . . .

T . . . . .

i i I I

o i I I

I i I I

o 1 i i

! I i I

i i l i

I i I I

I ! i i

o~ . . . . .

I- . . . . .
I I I

,L.
i I I

.
i

.
i I I

.
i i I

.
t I I

.
i I i

.
I i I

.
i I I

lg00-

2006

2038

~60

2000

2110

Fig. 33. Capital requirements for compression, storage and distribution vs time.

ENERGY

INFRASTRUCTURE
; l . I'i I ; l
I

FOR PAKISTAN
; l I
+ .....
I I

195
; i I
4 ......
I I
d . . . . .

I ~ Ohn = 2 . 0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1)
2,0 + I19~I'

; I I
+ .....
l I
-JL . . . . .

i I I
1 .....
I I
.t . . . . .

; l I
4 .....
I

u i0.5

....

r ..... r ..... t .....


I I I I
I. . . . . .

+ .....
I I
L__

I I
k . . . . .

. . . .

I. . . . . .

I I I l

I I l l

I I I l
. . . . . 4. . . . . .

I I l l l I l
!
. . . .

I I l I
. . . .

I l l I
. . .

I I I l

0.4

....

s. . . . . .
l I I
I

i.
l I I
i

I I I
i

l
I i t

I
I

I
I- . . . . .

I
~ . . . .

I
. .

I
. . .

!
.

I I I
I

0.3

. . . .

~- . . . . .

0.2

L'/i__/_i
I I
I

I I
I

I l
I

I l
I

I
. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . .

r.

. . . .

r
l I I

. . . . .

r.
! l I

I I I

l
. . . . . . . . .

I t I
. . . . .

i i i J
I I
I

I I
I

l I
I

I I I I

l I I

I I I

I I I

o.1

.... ! ..... t
l l l l

I I

l I

I l

l l

l l

l l

lm-

2005

2020

20(145 2000

2006

211o

Fig. 34. Capital requirements for water desalination plant vs time.

Figures 35-38 show the annual operating and maintenance cost for the various components of the system, Figure 35 shows the annual O & M cost for the PV cells, which would reach about $10.1 billion by the end of next century. Figure 36 shows the annual O & M cost of electrolysers. When the steady state conditions are attained this would reach about $10 billion per year. Figure 37 shows the O & M cost for storage, compression and transmission. By the end of the next century this would reach about $18 billion per year. Figure 38 shows that the annual O & M cost for the water desalination plant would reach about $13.6 billion, Figures 39 and 40 present the total annual income and total annual expenses due to the solar-hydrogen energy

system for the two hydrogen introduction rates, respectively. Income is due to the sale of hydrogen, oxygen and the agricultural products. These figures also include the total annual capital requirement and annual operating and maintenance cost for the whole system, which includes PV cells, their support structures, electrolysers, and the desalination plant. These figures show that the total annual income from the proposed system would reach about $250 billion by the end of the next century. On the other hand total annual expenditure (capital + O & M)would reach only about $70 billion. Figure 41 presents the dimensionless environmental impact ratio as a function of time. It can be seen that if no hydrogen is introduced and if enough fossil fuels are available throughout the next century environmental

o,. = 2o + 02 .
oh~ = Z O + O.~(n

i
- 1)',
I

i
'I
I

i
,
I

i
,
I

lO

.....

r .....
m

r .....
i

F .....
|

+ .....
i

+ .....
|

......

i
l I I
II . . . . .

i
u i I
L . . . . . i

l
I I I
L . . . . . I

i
I l I
.l, . . . . . I

m
l l I
,,I, . . . .

i
l I I
~, . . . . . I j

l
I I
. . . . . t

I
j . . . . .

l- . . . . . i

I I I I
II . . . . . I I- . . . . .

l I I I
I I- . . . . .

l I I I
I I- . . . . .

l I I I
I 4---,~

I I I
I . . . . .

I I I I
I 4 . . . . .

I l I I
s 4 . . . . .

l I I I
I 4 . . . . . .

. . . . .

I I I I I I r . . . . .
I

I I I I I I r . . . . .
I

I I I I I l r . . . . .
I

I I I I I I
I" l . . . . .

I I I I I I
'r . . . . . I

I I I I I I
-I . . . . . I

l I I I I I
"l . . . . . l

I I I I I
"l . . . . . . I

I I I
. . . . . . . . . .

I I I
. . . . .

I I I
. . . . . . . . .

I I I
. . . . .

I I I
. . . . .

I I I
. . . .

I I I
. . . . .

I I I
. . . .

I I I

i I I

I I

I I

I I I

l I I

i I I

I I I

l I I

IIMPO-

2005

2020

2035

2050
Y[ARS

2065

2080

2005

2110

Fig. 35. O p e r a t i n g and m a i n t e n a n c e cost for PV cells vs time.

196

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO~JLU

10

= 20.0
r .....
I I I I ! I. . . . . . I I I I I i- . . . . . i I I I I I r . . . . . I I I I
. . . . .

o
r .....

])
l)

Oh~ = 2.0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n -

i i
{" . . . . .
I I I I I L . . . . . I I I I I - . . . . . i I I ! I ! I" . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . .

i
[ I ~" . . . . .
I I I I I J. . . . . . I I I I I ,I- . I I I I I I 1" I I

i ' I
I

i
I "~ - - - - - ~ 1 ~ , I ~ i ~
I 1 I I .L . . . . . I I I I I -6 . . . . . I I I I ! I 1. . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . . .

.....

"~ . . . . .
I ! I I I J. I

......

0 ~ i

. . . . .

I I I I I L . . . . . I I I I I l- . . . . . i I I I I I r . . . . .

. . . .

! I I I .1 . . . . . I I ! I I I -t . . . . . i I I I I I `1 . . . . . I I I I
. . . .

I J . . . . . . I I I I ,.4 . . . . . i I 1 I I `1 . . . . . . I I I I

6 ~iI

. . . . .

4" . . . . .

. . . . . I I I I
. . . . . . . . . .

I I I
. . . . .

I l I I -i. . . . . . I I I I I I T . . . . . I I I I
. . . . .

2:

.....
I I I

I I I

I I I

I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

I I I

1990

20~

2020

2035

2060

2065

2060

20g5

2110

Fig. 36. Operating and maintenance cost for electrolysers vs time. impact would increase and level around the year 2060 at 25 times that of the environmental impact at the year 1990. Introduction of hydrogen at a fast rate would reduce the environmental impact to a 0.7~?.9 level starting with the year 2050. A slight increase in environmental impact ratio is due to slight increase in nitrogen oxide emissions caused by the increase in hydrogen consumption. Slower introduction of hydrogen would delay the benefits by 20 years. Figure 42 shows the quality of life indicator as a function of time. It can be seen that if the fossil fuels are continuously used, the quality of life would deteriorate to 0.3 by the middle of the next century and remain constant afterwards. The introduction of the solar hydrogen at the fast rate would increase the quality of life up to a value of 10 times that of the year 1990 around
0,.
oh.

the year 2050. The slower hydrogen introduction would delay the benefits by about 20 years.

7. CONCLUSIONS As a result of the foregoing study, the following conclusions are drawn: (a) Due to the high population growth, increasing energy demand and declining fossil fuel reserves, the amount of fossil fuels that Pakistan imports will continue to increase throughout the next century, unless serious efforts are made to substitute for the fossil fuels. Bearing in mind the future cost of oil, the implication of such import dependency, on Pakistan's economy could be quite disastrous.
; ! ; ; ;

= 2.0 + 0 . 2 ( n ~

2.0

0.25(n - 1),

1) i I

i I I

15 . . . . .

r .....
I I I I I i. . . . . . I I I

r .....
I I ! I I . . . . . i L i I I P . . . . . I I i I I I r . . . . . I I ! I
. . . . .

12

. . . . .

I I I I ,t. . . . . . I I 1 I I l- . . . . . ! I i I I I T . . . . . I I I I
. . . . .

~ ' .....

I I I I I J. . . . . I I I I I ~ . I I i I I I . .

~ _' .....

_.
I I I

,l . . . . . 1 I I . I | .I. . . . . . I I i I I I "r . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . . .

I 1 I I I .z . . . . . I I I I I 4 . . . . . I I i I I I `1 . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . .

I I I I I .L . . . . . 1 I I I I -I . . . . . I I i I I ! '1 . . . . . I I I !
. . . .

.....

I 1 I I I I I I

J . . . . . .

i I) . . . . .

15

. . . . .

I I I- . . . . . I I i I I I r . . . . . I I I I
. . . . .

1" . . . . . I I I I
. . . . . . . . . . .

I I -I . . . . . . I I i 1 I I -I . . . . . . I I I I

. . . . .

I I I ,

I I I

I I

I I I

! J

I I I

I ! I

I I I

I I I

i J

I I I

Fig. 37. Operating and maintenance cost for storage, compression and transmission vs time.

ENERGY

INFRASTRUCTURE

FOR

PAKISTAN

197

Oh,=2-0+0-2(n- 1) : OWn = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1) I

aj ~

0 o

" .....
9 i . . . . .

iI .....
I I o- . . . . . t I I ! I I I I- . . . . . I I I I I I I

iI .....
I I i- . . . . . I I I I I I I l- . . . . . I I I I I I !

iI .....
I I ~- . . . . . I I I ! I I I t. . . . . . I I I I I I I

[I .....
I I 1- . . . . I I I ! I I I ~ . . . . I ! I I I ; I . . . . I I I I I I I 4~ I ! I I !

....
I ! ~ . . . . . I I I I I I I 4 . . . . . I I I I I ! I

.....
-D . . . . . I I I I I I I 4 . . . . . I I I I I I I

.....
4 . . . . . I I I I I I I 4 . . . . . I ! t I I I I

......
,4 . . . . . . I I I I I I 1 4 ...... I I I I I I I

~;I . . . . .

. . . .

3 ...........

: .....
I I

: ....
I I

t
I

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1
19110 2005

'
2020

1
2035 2050 2015 2080 ~ 2110

Fig. 38. Operating and maintenance cost for water desalination plant vs time.
; Total Income 1 Total Expcnditare I Total Capital InvestmentS" .....
I . . . . . . . . . I

250.0

; I ui ~ .....
I I

; 1 ~ ~ .....
! I

; ; I n 1 nl "F----~'~J'-"~ram~
I I I I I I
l

; n al ......
! I

Oh ~ 2.0 + 0.2(n - 1)
n
200.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

'
I I

I
J- . . . . .

'
I I

I
~ . . . . .

,
~

f
___.L

I
. . . . .

:
I I

I
.I . . . . .

',
I
.I . . . . .

',
I
.J . . . . . .

I I

t I I I I

I I

I I

I I I
150.0 . . . . . o- . . . . .

I I I
~- . . . . .

I I I
i- . . . .

I I I
+ . . . . .

I ! I
+ . . . . . *

I I I
. . . . .

I I !
-o . . . . .

I I I
-o . . . . . .

o- . . . . .

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

I I I I I
I

100,0

~-- . . . .

r . . . . . I
I

r . . . . . I
I

r . . . . . I
I

T I
I

---T I
I

. . . . . I I

T . . . . . I
I

. . . . . 1
I

1 . . . . . I
I

~ ...... I
I

I I
I

I I
I

I !
I I

5o.0 . . . . .

I- .....
I I

I- .....
I I

t- .
I

.
I

.
I I I I I I

I _ -

Fig. 39. Total annual income and expenditure (accelerated hydrogen case) vs time.

98

N. LUTFI AND T. N. VEZIRO(~LU

Total Income

Total Expenditure
250 e Total Capital Investment{" . . . . .

='
e

~ i

==

Total 0 & M Cost


O,a 200 = 2.0 + 0.25(n - 1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

t .....
I , f ~ . . . . .

411,
I~0 . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I

I I I ! I I

I i ! &. . . . .

~ .....

I I l I I I I I I I I I

I I I I I I

$ , t ~ . . . . .

~ .....

= I
, ! ~ a/

l-'-~-~'a"~

',

,,
I ', i

......

I I I I I I I I I I I ! I

. . . .

I l ! 4 . . . . .

I I I I
-4 . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I

I ', i A . . . . .

I I I I I I I I I I I I

J . . . . . .

I I I I ! I I I l I I I

I- . . . . .

l- . . . . .

I- . . . . .

4" . . . . .

+--

-b . . . . .

-e . . . . .

4 . . . . . .

l I I I I I
r . . . . .

I I I I ! ! I I
! I I

I I I I I I
T . . . . .

100

. . . . .

r . . . . .

r . . . . .

1" . . . . . . . . . . I ! I

. . . . .

1 . . . . .

"I . . . . . .

I I
I I I

I I
I I I

! I
I I I

I I
I

I I
I I

I I
I

l !
!

. . . . .
I
I
I

. . . . .
!
I
_

. . . . .

f .
I

.
!

.
l

.
I I I

1990

2020

2035

2000

2005

2110

Fig. 40. Total annual income and expenditure (slow hydrogen case) vs time.

Olin =

2.0

0.2(n

- 1)

i
| ;

i I
1
i

i .
__ |_
a a

i.
'
p
'

i
,
i |
'

i
,
i

20.0

Oh =20+025(n_

1)|
!

l
'

10.0
6.0 0 _~ ........ .

i e t , ~ ........ , i a i = = :

i i i i ~. , = = = , f

s . | . . . . .

'
, ~ ........ t

'

, I ........

i i i

i i i ........ i i i i = | =

i ~ .........

' 1 i
i 1.0 . . . . . . . . . . . .

,u 1 J
I . . .

O,S[-

i
0.2 ....... ,=........

. ,

. ,

. ,

. ,

. , ,

I i

1990

2005

2020

i
.

2035

i,

2050

2005

2110

Fig. 41. Environmental impact ratio vs time.

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PAKISTAN

199


10,0

e h , = 2.0 + 0 . 2 ( n - 1) Oh, = 2.0 + 0 . 2 5 ( n - 1)


Oh n = O0 t ........ i t ....... i " ~ l ' - ~ ' ' l

!
a I i t I [

,
I ........ i i | t

6.0

........

r .................
i

I.. . . . . . . .

~.
i

.
t

.'
J l J

.
i i i

| i i

I
z
t

1
'
[ I

1
I
i i I

'
I

:
i

l
n i

:
" ........ " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? ........

,
" ........

,
I ........

,
~ ......... , ......... I i l l

Or

DO 0.0 . . . . . . . .
1

,,- . . . .

~- . . . . . . . .

~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i l i i i t i

IP

--

n |

i i

i i

i i

I
1990 2005 2020

I
2035

I
2060

I
2065

I
2000

I
2095

I
2110

Fig. 42. Quality of life indicator vs time. (b) The present fossil fuel based energy system, which is non-renewable, polluting and a heavy burden on Pakistan's economy, could be replaced by the solar hydrogen energy system, which is renewable and clean, and could be established with the indigenous resources. (c) Pakistan like other developing countries, is trying to expand its energy infrastructure. It could avoid the mistakes of industrial countries, by basing its energy infrastructure on the solar hydrogen energy system, rather than a non-renewable and environmentally incompatible system, (d) Production of hydrogen via photovoltaic electrolysis utilizing the available non-agricultural, sunny terrain in the Baluchistan region would not only provide for a valuable energy carrier, but also would change the vast useless desert land into green productive farms. (e) Large savings would be realised due to higher utilization efficiency of hydrogen and due to the savings in environmental damage. (f) The introduction of the solar hydrogen energy system would eliminate the importation of fossil fuels, increase gross product per capita, reduce pollution, improve quality of life, and establish a clean and permanent energy system, REFERENCES 1. World Energy Statistics, 1989. 2. M. A. Elliot and N. C. Turner, Estimating the future rate of production of the world's fossil fuels. Chemical Society 163rd National Meeting, Division of Fuel Chemistry, Symposium on Non-Fossil Chemical Fuels, Boston (13 April 1972). 3. J. D. Parent, A Survey of United States and Total World Production, Proved Reserves, and Remaining Recoverable Resources of Fossil Fuels and Uranium as of 31 December 1977. Institute of Gas and Technology, Chicago (March 1979). 4. Urban Ozone and the Clean air Act: Problems and Proposals for Change. Staff Paper, Oceans and Environments Program, Office of Technology Assessment (April 1988). P. Shabecoff, Global warming has begun, expert tells senate, New York Times (24 June 1988). Committee on the Monitoring and Assessment of Trends in Acid Deposition, National Research Council, Acid Deposition: Long-Term Trends. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. (1986). University of Miami News, Office of Public Affairs (14 June 1990). A. H. Awad and T. N. Veziro~lu, Hydrogen versus synthetic fossil fuels. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 9, No. 5 (1984). T. N. Veziro~lu, Hydrogen technology for energy needs of human settlements. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 12, No. 2 (1987). P. Hoffmann (ed.), Hydrogen News Letter, Vol. V/No. 7 (1990). World Bank, World Development Report, Washington, D.C. (1989). Government of Pakistan, Finance Division, Economic Advisor's Wing, Economic Survey. Ministry of Finance, Islamabad, Pakistan (1988-89). Government of Pakistan, Director General of Energy Resources, Energy Year Book, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, lslamabad, Pakistan (1989). N. Lutfi and T. N. Veziro~lu, Present energy situation of Pakistan and planning for future, in T. N. Veziro~lu (ed.),
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