Table 24.0 shows a variance decomposition of the observations for the persons. Th is is not produced for PRCOMP=O.

Table of STANDARDIZED RESIDUAL variance (in Eigenvalue units) -- Empirical -Modeled Total raw variance in observations = 119.5 100.0% 100.0% Raw variance explained by measures = 85.5 71.6% 70.9% Raw variance explained by persons = 28.4 23.7% 23.5% Raw Variance explained by items = 57.1 47.8% 47.4% Raw unexplained variance (total) = 34.0 28.4% 100.0% 29.1% Unexplned variance in 1st contrast = 8.9 7.5% 26.2% Unexplned variance in 2nd contrast = 5.3 4.4% 15.5% Unexplned variance in 3rd contrast = 4.8 4.0% 14.0% Unexplned variance in 4th contrast = 3.8 3.1% 11.1% Unexplned variance in 5th contrast = 2.8 2.4% 8.4% STANDARDIZED RESIDUAL VARIANCE SCREE PLOT VARIANCE COMPONENT SCREE PLOT +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+ 100%+ T + | | V 63%+ M + A | | R 40%+ I + I | | A 25%+ U + N | P | C 16%+ + E | | 10%+ + L | | O 6%+ 1 + G | | | 4%+ 2 3 + S | | C 3%+ 4 + A | 5 | L 2%+ + E | | D 1%+ + | | 0.5%+ + +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+ TV MV PV IV UV U1 U2 U3 U4 U5 VARIANCE COMPONENTS If your Table says "Total variance in observations", instead of "Total raw varia nce in observations", then please update to the current version of Winsteps, or produce this Table with PRCOMP=R. Extreme items and persons (minimum possible and maximum possible raw scores) are omitted from this computation because their correlations are 0. Simulation studies, and the empirical results of Winsteps users, indicated that the previous computation of "variance explained" was over-optimistic in explaini ng variance. So a more conservative algorithm was implemented. Technically, the previous computation of "variance explained" used standardized residuals (by def ault). These are generally considered to have better statistical properties than the raw residuals. But the raw residuals (PRCOMP=R) were found to provide more

realistic explanations of variance, so the current Winsteps computation uses raw residuals for "variance explained" in the top half of the variance table. The "Unexplained variance" is controlled by PRCOMP=, which defaults to standardi zed residuals (PRCOMP=S). Set PRCOMP=R to express the entire table in terms of r aw residuals. Table of STANDARDIZED RESIDUAL variance (in Eigenvalue units) -- Empirical --- Empirical --- Empirical -Modeled Total raw variance in observations 50.9 100.0%

Expected values if these data fit the Rasch model perfectly If these match reasonably, then the measures explain the expected amount of vari ance in the data 100.0% Raw variance explained by measures = 25.9 50.9% 46.5% Raw variance explained by persons = 10.3 20.2% 18.5% Raw Variance explained by items = 15.6 30.7% 28.0% Raw unexplained variance (total) = 25.0 = count of items (or persons) 49.1% 100.0% 53.5% Unexplned variance in 1st contrast = 4.6 9.1% 18.5% Use simulations to estimate the Rasch-model-expected values SIFILE= Unexplned variance in 2nd contrast = 2.9 5.8% 11.8% Unexplned variance in 3rd contrast = 2.3 4.5% 9.2% Unexplned variance in 4th contrast = 1.7 3.4% 6.9% Unexplned variance in 5th contrast = 1.6 3.2% 6.5%

(More smaller contrasts) Eigenvalue units Percentage of total variance Percentage of unexplained variance Table of STANDARDIZED RESIDUAL variance: the standardized residuals form the bas is of the "unexplained variance" computation, set by PRCOMP= (in Eigenvalue units): variance components are rescaled so that the total unexpl ained variance has its expected summed eigenvalue. Empirical: variance components for the observed data Model: variance components expected for these data if they exactly fit the Rasch model, i.e., the variance that would be explained if the data accorded with the Rasch definition of unidimensionality. Total raw variance in observations: total raw-score variance in the observations Raw variance explained by measures: raw-score variance in the observations expla ined by the Rasch item difficulties, person abilities and polytomous scale struc tures Raw variance explained by persons: raw-score variance in the observations explai ned by the Rasch person abilities (and apportioned polytomous scale structures) Raw variance explained by items: raw-score variance in the observations explaine d by the Rasch item difficulties (and apportioned polytomous scale structures) Raw unexplained variance (total): raw-score variance in the observations not exp lained by the Rasch measures Unexplned variance in 1st, 2nd, ... contrast: size of the first, second, ... con trast (component) in the principal component decomposition of standardized resid uals (or as set by PRCOMP=), i.e., variance that is not explained by the Rasch m easures, but that is explained by the contrast. The important lines in this Table are "contrasts". If the first contrast is much larger than the size of an Eigenvalue expected by chance, usually less than 2 www.rasch.org/rmt/rmt191h.htm - please inspect your Table 23.3 to see the contr asting content of the items which is producing this large off-dimensional compon ent in your data, or Table 24.3 to see the contrasting persons. The threat to Ra sch measurement is not the ratio of unexplained (by the model) to explained (by the model), or the amount of explained or unexplained. The threat is that there is another non-Rasch explanation for the "unexplained". This is what the "contra sts" are reporting. How Variance Decomposition is done ... 1.A central person ability and a central item difficulty are estimated. When the central ability is substituted for the estimated person abilities for each obse rvation, the expected total score on the instrument across all persons equals th e observed total score. Similarly, when the central ability is substitute for th e estimated item difficulties for each observation, the expected total score on the instrument across all items equals the observed total score. 2.For each observation, a central value is predicted from the central person abi lity and the central item difficulty and the estimated rating scale (if any). In the "Empirical" columns: 3."Total raw variance in observations =" the sum-of-squares of the observations around their central values. 4."Raw unexplained variance (total)=" is the sum-of-squares of the difference be tween the observations and their Rasch predictions, the raw residuals. 5."Raw variance explained by measures=" is the difference between the "Total raw variance" and the "Raw unexpained variance". 6."Raw variance explained by persons=" is the fraction of the "Raw variance expl

ained by measures=" attributable to the person measure variance (and apportioned rating scale structures). 7."Raw variance explained by items=" is the fraction of the "Raw variance explai ned by measures=" attributable to the item measure variance (and apportioned rat ing scale structures). 8.The reported variance explained by the items and the persons is normalized to equal the variance explained by all the measures. This apportions the variance e xplained by the rating scale structures. 9.The observation residuals, as transformed by PRCOMP=, are summarized as an int er-person correlation matrix, with as many columns as there are non-extreme pers ons. This correlation matrix is subjected to Principle Components Analysis, PCA. 10.In PCA, each diagonal element (correlation of the person with itself) is set at 1.0. Thus the eigenvalue of each person is 1.0, and the total of the eigenval ues of the matrix is the number of persons. This is the sum of the variance mode led to exist in the correlation matrix, i.e., the total of the unexplained varia nce in the observations. 11.For convenience the size of the "Raw unexplained variance (total)" is rescale d to equal the total of the eigenvalues. This permits direct comparison of all t he variance terms. 12.The correlation matrix reflects the Rasch-predicted randomness in the data an d also any departures in the data from Rasch criteria, such as those due to mult idimensionality in the persons. 13.PCA reports components. If the data accord with the Rasch model, then each pe rson is locally independent and the inter-person correlations are statistically zero. The PCA analysis would report each person as its own component. Simulation studies indicate that even Rasch-conforming data produce eigenvalues with value s up to 2.0, i.e., with the strength of two persons. 14.Multidimensionality affects the pattern of the residuals. The residual patter n should be random, so the "contrast" eigenvalue pattern should approximately ma tch the eigenvalue pattern from simulated data. When there is multidimensionalit y the residuals align along the dimensions, causing the early contrast eigenvalu es to be higher than those from random (simulated) data. So multidimensionality inflates the early PCA contrasts above the values expected from random data, and correspondingly must lower the later ones, because the eigenvalue total is fixe d. 15."Unexplned variance in 1st contrast =" reports the size of the first PCA comp onent. This is termed a "contrast" because the substantive differences between p ersons that load positively and negatively on the first component are crucial. I t may reflect a systematic second dimension in the persons. 16."Unexplned variance in 2nd contrast =". Consecutively smaller contrasts are r eported (up to 5 contrasts). These may also contain systematic multi-dimensional ity in the persons. In the "Model" columns: 17."Raw variance explained by measures=" is the sum-of-squares of the Rasch-pred icted observations (based on the item difficulties, person abilities, and rating scale structures) around their central values. 18."Raw variance explained by persons=" is the fraction of the "Raw variance exp lained by measures=" attributable to the person measure variance (and apportione d rating scale structures). 19."Raw variance explained by items=" is the fraction of the "Raw variance expla ined by measures=" attributable to the item measure variance (and apportioned ra ting scale structures). 20.The reported variance explained by the items and the persons is normalized to equal the variance explained by all the measures. This apportions the variance explained by the rating scale structures. 21."Raw unexplained variance (total)=" is the summed Rasch-model variances of th e observations around their expectations, the unexplained residual variance pred icted by the Rasch model.

22."Total raw variance in observations =" is the sum of the Rasch-model "Raw var iance explained by measures=" and the "Raw unexplained variance (total)=" 23.The "Model" and the "Empirical" values for the "Total raw variance in observa tions =" are both rescaled to be 100%. 24.Use the SIFILE= option in order to simulate data. From these data predicted m odel values for the contrast sizes can be obtained. STANDARDIZED RESIDUAL VARIANCE SCREE PLOT VARIANCE COMPONENT SCREE PLOT +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+ 100%+ T + | | V 63%+ + A | M | R 40%+ U + I | | A 25%+ I + N | P | C 16%+ + E | | 10%+ + L | 1 | O 6%+ + G | 2 | | 4%+ 3 + S | 4 5 | C 3%+ + A | | L 2%+ + E | | D 1%+ + | | 0.5%+ + +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+ TV MV PV IV UV U1 U2 U3 U4 U5 VARIANCE COMPONENTS Scree plot of the variance component percentage sizes, logarithmically scaled: On plot On x-axis Meaning T TV total variance in the M MV variance explained by P PV variance explained by I IV variance explained by U UV unexplained variance 1 U1

observations, always 100% the Rasch measures the person abilities the item difficulties

first contrast (component) in the residuals 2 U2 second contrast (component) in the residuals, etc. For the observations (PRCOMP=Obs), a standard Principal Components Analysis (wit hout rotation, and with orthogonal axes) is performed based on the scored observ ations. Table of OBSERVATION variance (in Eigenvalue units) -- Empirical -Raw unexplained variance (total) = 13.0 100.0% Unexplned variance in 1st contrast = 9.9 76.1% Unexplned variance in 2nd contrast = .9 7.2% Unexplned variance in 3rd contrast = .6 4.3% Unexplned variance in 4th contrast = .3 2.6% Unexplned variance in 5th contrast = .3 2.0% Here "contrast" means "component" or "factor". Example: In this example, 71.7% of the variance in the data is explained by the measures. If the data fit the model perfectly, 71.1% would be explained. These percentage s are close, indicating that the estimation of Rasch measures has been successfu l. The variance in the data explained by the item difficulties, 48.2%, is twice the variance explained by the person abilities, 23.6%. This usually reflects the pe rson and item measure standard deviations in Table 3.1. The unexplained variance in the data is 28.3%. This includes the Rasch-predicted randomness and any departures in the data from Rasch criteria, such as those du e to multidimensionality in the items. The first contrast has an eigenvalue of 8.9, corresponding to a strength of almo st 9 persons, and considerably larger than the largest eigenvalue expected by ch ance. It corresponds to 7.4% of the variance in the data, 15% of the variance ex plained by the person measures, 48.2%. For comparison, when the positive-loading persons are split from the negative-loading persons, the correlation between th e item raw scores on each half of the sample is r=0.84.