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ConocoPhillips
Exchange: NYSE Ticker: COP CUSIP:20825C104 Target Price:$90.30
Charles Paraboschi Lead Analyst Cparaboschi@theowlfund.com Matthew Teitelman Associate Analyst M.teitelman@temple.edu
RECOMMENDATION
COP Target Price Projected Return Dividend Yield
BUY
$72.26 $90.30 29% 3.8%
Market Data
52 week trading range Shares Outstanding ($mm) Market Capitalization ($mm) Enterprise Value ($mm) $55.16-$74.55 1,225.1 M 88.525 B 110.59 B
COMPANY OVERVIEW
COP is a U.S. based independent exploration and production firm. COP explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and natural gas liquids on a worldwide basis. Its portfolio includes assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; growing North American shale and oil sands businesses; various international development projects; and a global exploration program. In 2012, it produced 844,000 barrels per day of oil and natural gas liquids and 4.2 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas, primarily from the United States, Canada, Norway, and the United Kingdom. Proven reserves at year-end 2012 stood at 8.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Revenue (B)
150 100 50 0
INVESTMENT THESIS
Every portfolio that tracks the S&P 500 needs to have a mega energy conglomerate included within its holdings. Conoco Phillips is the perfect company for the Owl Fund to fulfill that requirement. However, Conoco has recently dropped its downstream segment and has essentially become a mega E&P which works to the funds advantage. ConocoPhillips, in 2012 divested its downstream segment into Phillips 66 (PSX). This allows the company to be more nimble and take advantage of new opportunities within the energy sector. With this divestiture, COP has begun to change from an integrated oil company into an E&P, and should be trading at multiples similar to its new E&P peers and not its previous integrated peers. Its margins have already begun the transformation and are beginning to look more akin to E&P margins instead of integrated margins. The market is not valuing COP like and E&P yet because it is waiting for Conoco to show that the projects it started a couple years ago will indeed produce and continue to produce margins like an E&P and not an integrated. Also, because there are many new projects under development, COP should start exhibiting revenue growth that would make the market realize its value. In the next year or so COP should be announcing returns from projects currently under development.
Earnings History
Earnings Date FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 EPS 2.95 7.62 8.97 6.72 Revenue 136 B 175.7 B 64.19 B 57.97 B DVD Yield % 4.9 % 4.14 % 4.75 % 4.55
Industry Primer
The Exploration and Production (E&P) industry includes participants involved in exploration, development, production and marketing of oil and gas products. The process of E&P companies includes prospecting, acquisition and maintenance of mineral leases and landholdings, including contract management and obligation payments. Global exploration and production spending is set to reach a record $644 billion in 2013, up 7% from $604 billion in 2012, according to Barclays Global 2013 E&P Spending Outlook. Spending growth in 2013 should be driven almost entirely by international markets, where estimated capital budgets will jump 9%, as the international and offshore cycles continue to build momentum, and commodity prices remain at attractive levels. In contrast to the international sector, E&P spending in North America is forecast to pause, with flat, year-on-year spending in both the U.S. and Canada expected during 2013.
Energy
All prices current at end of previous trading sessions from date of report. Data is sourced from local exchanges via CapIQ, Bloomberg and other vendors. The William C. Dunkelberg Owl fund does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware of possible conflicts of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Catalysts
A series of Capital Projects will be coming online in the next couple years from 2014 through 2017. Increasing demand from emerging countries as their middle classes buy more cars and utilize heating. The construction of NGL exportation facilities should help increase the demand for natural gas, effectively raising its price.
Drag Factors
Prolonged natural gas price depression. (Speculation) Oil and natural gas cyclicality and volatility Licensing delays Possible increases in regulation. High level of competition ( > 250 companies in space with market caps greater than 500M) Possible failures of future projects.
Target Price
Instead of a single target price, a range that the security should be trading in was derived. To derive this price range a DCF analysis and relative valuation were utilized. The price target is between $90.35 and $96.81.
Intrinsic Value: To arrive at COPs Intrinsic Value per share, a DCF model forecasting
the results of COPs operations and a price deck were used. All expenses are a function of units produced. Using WACC and an added discount as the required rate of return (9.24%) the intrinsic value per share of $90.35 was synthesized. This target price implies a capital return of 25% and an absolute return (which includes dividend) of 29%.
Relative Valuation: Compiling five E&P companies that represent the new peers COP
will have in the near future. Using these peers, the peer relative EV/T12Month Ebitda multiple is 6.02x. Using this multiple and the companys current Ebitda, the implied equity valuation is $140,097M or $96.81/share. The capital return with this target price would be 32.01%, and absolute return (which includes dividends) would be 36%.
DCF Derived Intrinsic Value per Share= $90.35 Equivalent Peer Multiple= 5.60x Relative Multiple Fair Value Price= $96.81 Relative Target Multiple= 6.025x COP Est. Ebitda = 22,931 M
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Revenue Projections:
Revenue is derived entirely as a function of COPs production and the market price of the commodities it sells. In the attached projection model, the value the company is derived from those assets currently producing or will be producing in the near future, because they are the only ones one can be sure will be producing into the future. In order to account for depletion, built into the revenue/ production model is a well depletion rate of 2%. This accounts for the general drawing down of all the reserves in each new project. This also mean that since the model assumes no new projects after those being developed near term, revenue will begin to decline after the last new project hits peak production. And because there are no new projects assumed down the road, exploration expense is eliminated from the Conocos forecasts.
Gr owth
140,000.00 120,000.00 100,000.00 80,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 20,000.00 0.00
Total revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
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Alaska
Lower 48
Canada
Norway
United Kingdom Australia/Timor-Leste China Indonesia Malaysia Libya Other International Equity affiliates
31%
4%
12%
Libya
Other International
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Total Added Prod. N10Y (k) Alaska 517,751.63 US 55,434.18 Canada 932,888.33 Norway 168,679.63 UK 229,211.23 China 207,766.11 Indonesia 70,189.07 Malaysia 269,627.75 Vietnam 0.00 Australia 285,486.03 Total 2,737,033.97
Price Deck:
For a price deck, the company provides the price which it is able to sell the commodities in which regions. For instance, Conoco sells oil produced in Canada to the lower 48 states cheaper than oil produced offshore of the UK to the E.U. To forecast, I just assume no change in the commodity prices going forward. I assume this because the most influential factor on the price oil is going to be the price of natural gas and vice versa. My assumption is that if one of the two abnormally increases or decreases, the other will increase or decrease to compensate. In addition, I am predicting that North Americas new role as a leading producer of both natural Gas and oil will help to provide a stabilization effect on the energy market, removing the need for growth or decline predictions in the price of natural gas or oil. In essence Im assuming that current energy commodity price will remain the same for the foreseeable future. The prices Im using will be the average of the last seven quarters to help account for the seasonal cyclicality of prices. Capital Expenditure: Since the spinoff of PSX, COP has been able to focus its capital more on new projects. Capital Expenditures has ramped up by $5 billion dollars from about $10 billion to $15 billion and is projected to continue growing into the future. This new Capex is being financed by a combination of new debt issuance, with the most recent new debt issuance of short term callable bonds totaling $2 billion and expiring in 2017 and 2022. Capex is going to be flowing predominantly into projects in Canada, Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
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As of the most recent quarter, return on invested capital has been declining from what it was pre-recession. This is not a bad thing for COP, it just means that the company is in an expansion phase of its business. Due to the capital intensity of the E&P industry, as well as the extended amount of time it takes for employed capital to actually produce a working facility, the low ROIC metric for COP shouldnt be worrisome. Also included in this metric is Capex spent on the refining and marketing business it spun off and no longer receives return from, essentially a sunk cost. The company will see its ROIC metric rise as the new projects financed by the new capital expenditures begin to produce returns. As previously stated, the bulk of COP investment is going to projects in Canada, Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia. However, those are not the only geographies in which Conoco is investing. Additional geographies of investment include Norway, Alaska, the U.K., and China. Most of the investments are going to totally new projects or new projects on already mined fields, as opposed to current facility expansion.
Total Debt:
As of Q3 2013, total debt outstanding is $21.668 Billion, providing for a debt to capital ratio of 30% and a debt to equity ratio of 42%. Total cash amounts to $3.98 Billion. The largest upcoming payment of maturity is for a senior unsecured loan amounting to $1.5 Billion payable January 15th 2015. The companys current ratio is 1.35, suggesting that they have enough liquidity to pay down any short term liabilities the company may face. All COPs bond outstanding are fixed rate and pay a coupon on semi-annual basis. 20% of the bonds are Canadian issued and 80% are American issued. The average interest due per year comes to about $513 Million. There is only one asset backed loan in Conocos portfolio of debt and it is for a small amount; its set up as a pass through and does not represent any risk to the companys financial solvency. COPs interest coverage ratio for the past 4 quarters has been on average about 3x, suggesting that COP has more than enough operating income to meet its interest requirements going forward. This isnt surprising considering the generally large cash flows of established E&P companies.
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Operating Margin: COP has an OM of 24.4% which is in approximately the same as the previous years OM. This is already in line with their new comp group of E&P companies. COP is still in the process of shifting their production to liquid gas as their production rose to 55% from 54% in the last year. Production is expected to increase 3-5% through 2017, combined with 48% growth COP liquid gas exposure could approach 63%. Higher exposure in this low margin product will help to increase OM further.
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Profit Margin: COP has a PM of 14%, this is a decrease from the previous year of 4.9%. With expected increases in production of liquid gas expected to between 3-5% through 2017 we expect COP, like in their OM, to see their PM increase as well.
ROA: COP has a ROA of 7.6% an increase of 1% from the previous year. COP is currently inline or better then its E&P comp group. Operating in a higher margin industry with production expected to reach 63% we expect COP to increase their net income which will push ROA higher.
ROE: COP has an ROE of 16.8% an increase of 6% from the previous year. COP is still transitioning into the E&P industry which is a higher margin industry. With margins expected to increase as liquid gas productions is expected to increase to 63% from 55% we expect ROE to also increase from the gains in net income.
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ROIC: COP has an ROIC of 12.5% an increase of 1.5% from the previous year. As COP further transitions into the higher margin E&P industry, as their liquid gas production levels are expected to increase from 55% to 63%, we expect ROIC to increase as well.
Fixed Asset Turnover: COP currently has a fixed asset turnover of 0.8x which is a 0.1x decrease from the year before. COP is currently at the high end of their E&P comps. This shows that COP is able to operate with their asset for longer than its former integrated peers, showing one of the benefits of switching to an E&P company from an integrated company.
Debt to Equity: COP has a debt to equity of 48.7% an increase of 10% from the previous year. The increase in D/E comes from the transition into the E&P industry. COP is currently in line with E&P companies on a D/E basis.
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VALUATIONS and Trading Measures (see appendix for related figures and tables)
Conoco Phillips is not undervalued compared to its ten year trading history on an EV/Ebitda multiple basis. However, the company is not the same as it has been over the past ten years either. Compared to its new peers in the E&P industry, COP is trading at a lower value on an Ev/Ebitda multiple than it should be. Historically COP traded at an average multiple of 4.75 times Ebitda, however the company is trading above that multiple as it is now trading at 5.45 times Ebitda. This higher valuation is justified as the company is changing, but it should be the lower level of the new normal trading range for COP. According to peer analysis, COP should ascend in valuation to trade in line with its E&P peers at a valuation of 6.025 times Ebitda. The chart below shows the COP is trading between where it has historically been valued on average (white line) and where its new normal trading multiple (red line) will be. COP stock should close the gap in the next twelve months as investors start to favor the company due to cash flows coming in from projects causing people to buy and making the valuation of the company increase.
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Industry Correlations
Pricing: The industry Conoco Phillips is going into noticeably sensitive to the price of oil, which makes sense as the market price of oil dictates the price at which that E&P companies can sell their products. The market understands them and investors buy and sell E&P stocks accordingly; in fact a non-parametric correlation study between the generic crude contract and the price of the E&P sector of the S&P 500 indicates that the two prices are highly correlated with an R-Squared of 0.803. This indicated that the E&P industry, on a pricing level is very correlated to the price of crude oil. If Conoco Phillips is going to trade like an E&P in the future, investors can expect a similar correlation between the price of COP stock and the price of crude oil.
Valuation: Although the price of E&P stock s are highly correlated with the price of crude, the valuations of the same companies display a much lower correlation. A non- parametric correlation study between the Ev/Ebitda valuation of the E&P sector and the generic crude contract yielded a low correlation with an R-Squared of only 0.353. This low R-Squared value indicates that even though the market buys and sells E&P stocks on the price of crude, the underlying valuation of the companies do not reflect the price of crude. This is because companies margins are not heavily influenced by the price of crude oil (as odd as that sounds).
Ebitda Margin: An explanation for the discrepancy between the sensitivity of E&Ps pricing to crude and their valuations to the price of crude is the sensitivity between the price of crude oil and E&P companies Ebitda margin. A non-parametric R-Squared study between the crude oil generic contract and the Ebitda margins of the E&P sector delivered a moderate correlation between the two with an R-Squared of 0.398. This moderate correlation shows that the price of crude is not the only driver of an E&P companys profitability and underscores the importance of cost-efficiency in the production of crude oil.
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Sources:
All the information used within this report is derived from the following sources. Yahoo.com/finance Google.com/finance Finviz.com Thomson One Research and Investment Platform Bloomberg Investment Services Conoco Phillips Investor Relations Conoco Phillips 10k Conoco Phillips 10Q Conoco Phillips Online Factsheets Conoco Phillips 2012 Annual Report
DISCLAIMER This report is prepared strictly for educational purposes and should not be used as an actual investment guide. The forward looking statements contained within are simply the authors opinions. The writer does not own any of ConocoPhillips. stock.
TUIA STATEMENT Established in honor of Professor William C. Dunkelberg, former Dean of the Fox School of Business, for his tireless dedication to educating students in real-world principles of economics and business, the William C. Dunkelberg (WCD) Owl Fund will ensure that future generations of students have exposure to a challenging, practical learning experience. Managed by Fox School of Business graduate and undergraduate students with oversight from its Board of Directors, the WCD Owl Funds goals are threefold: Provide students with hands-on investment management experience Enable students to work in a team-based setting in consultation with investment professionals. Connect student participants with nationally recognized money managers and financial institutions
Earnings from the fund will be reinvested net of fund expenses, which are primarily trading and auditing costs and partial scholarships for student participants.
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