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TABLE OF CONTENTS Best Tipster: Northern Monkey Punter............................................................................................. 3 Best Tipster Analysis: How Much Can You Make? ............................................................................ 9 Disclaimer & Copyright Notice ........................................................................................................ 14
Thanks for downloading this free sample of our Best Tipster Guide, which will hopefully give you a taste of just how it can help you make money betting. In this free sample PDF, you can read in full our detailed report on just 1 of the 7 tipsters that can be found in our Best Tipster Guide. We also have an article that reveals the profits that each of the 7 tipsters have generated, both individually and as a group. If you enjoy this free sample PDF, you can access the full Best Tipster Guide and details on the other 6 tipsters with a Secret Betting Club membership. It is available to download the instant you sign-up with our service. Not only that, but as we believe so strongly in our ability to help your betting, there is an anytime money back guarantee if not satisfied with our service for any reason. Read more on the Best Tipster Guide here.
All content copyright 2006-2013 Minerva Publishing Ltd. Registered Office: Drake House, Gadbrook Way, Northwich, Cheshire, CW9 7RA
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WHAT IS THE SECRET BETTING CLUB & HOW CAN WE HELP YOU?
Established in May 2006, the Secret Betting Club is a 100% independent source for reporting, reviewing and monitoring the world of betting advice, through the use of tipsters, systems and strategies. We can point you in the direction of the best tipsters, systems and methods for making money betting. We do this via our: SBC Magazines Published monthly they feature our independent tipster reviews, howto guides, expert interviews and free systems and strategies for you to follow. SBC Tipster Profit Reports Published 6 times a year, these unique reports contain our latest tipster ratings, including Hall of Fame and at a glance comparative league tables on over 50 different tipsters. Free access to our 3-part Ultimate Betting Package, consisting of the... 1. The Secret List of Award Winning Horse Racing, Football & Sport Tipsters 2. The Secret Betting System Guide (Including 3 profitable betting systems for Racing, Football & Golf) 3. The Professional Gambler Blueprint Access to our dynamic forum rammed full of advice, free strategies and systems devised by some of our very shrewd members. Entry to the SBC Discount Club, providing you exclusive saving deals for many top tipsters that you just wont find anywhere else. Before you join any tipster check with us first to save money! Access to our outstanding 7 year back catalogue full of our past reviews, features and profitable betting advice. And much more besides, certainly too much to list here.
The great news is that all of this currently available for the equivalent of just 1.52 per week and with a full money back guarantee if not in any way satisfied once you joined.
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BEST TIPSTER: NORTHERN MONKEY PUNT ER FLAT RACING SPECIALI ST WITH EXCELLENT LO NG-TERM RECORD Service Name: Northern Monkey Punter Contact: Wayne Telephone: N/A Website: http://www.northernmonkeypunter.co.uk/ Email: northernmonkeypunter@hotmail.co.uk Sports Covered: Racing (Flat Turf and AW) Bet Frequency: 20-60 bets per month Pricing: 59.99 for 3 months, 99.99 for 6 months, 175 for 12 months SBC Discount: SBC members can benefit from a free extra month's membership once signed-up Bet Delivery: Email
Service Re-Cap: Northern Monkey Punter, Wayne, swung into action back in February 2010 and, after an excellent first year, was upgraded into our Hall of Fame, where he has remained ever since. A comprehensive review and separate analysis featured in SBC magazines #55 and #56 a full 2 years ago, so weve got a lot to catch up on in this re-review. Northern Monkey Punter is a service which has steadily evolved, from its early days as a free offering with tips sent out the night before racing, to the highly respected, professional service we see today. The focus of the service has, however, remained largely unchanged with the bulk of selections advised on flat (turf) racing, supplemented with a smaller number of All Weather picks through the winter months. Bets are reliably sent out between 9.30 10.00 each morning, with a detailed and insightful write-up provided for each selection. Selections are generally advised with several bookmakers and Wayne very fairly settles his official results at the lowest quoted odds on the email to ensure members can generally match his recorded profits. Bet volumes range from 20 60 per month, with the peak occurring in the height of the summer flat season. Traditionally strongest during the summer months, the service experienced a relatively poor 2012, before seeing something of a renaissance during the recent AW season. This coincided with a couple of changes implemented by Wayne, fine tuning both selection methods and advised staking. Wayne takes up the story: The turf and AW have been something I've treated as separate entities and after poor winters in 2010 and 2011 I decided I needed to shake things up the winter just gone. I was at a crossroads as things turned out, the decision to try something new could have breathed new life into the service.
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Initially, I was using a system-based approach to identify bets which was focused around jockeys but it felt too simplistic when rolling it out live and betting in practice. Due to my own gut instinct and member feedback I quickly canned this approach after a month and decided to develop methods I had not done before - compiling performance figures - from mid-November. Coupled with a narrowed staking scale, service results picked up notably and effectively the results from mid November are those of the 'reformed service'. It is still the same person selecting bets but the methodology behind identifying bets is new from mid-November, as is the staking. I had to narrow the staking because the performance of the weakly fancied bets was dragging down the reported profits for the service. The staking plan was originally much broader, using a range of 0.25 - 3 points, but this was narrowed to 1 1.5 points for AW over the winter, with a particular focus on filtering out some of the weaker bets which had held the service back a bit in the past. A similar low-end filter has been adopted for the current turf season although Wayne has left some scope for staking more heavily on really strongly fancied selections by opting for a 1 3 points stake range more on this in the Results section. The service now heads into the busy summer months with Wayne full of renewed confidence and enthusiasm, and looking to bounce back towards the longer-term performance norm. Service Proofing: All bets were initially proofed to Racing Index from service inception in February 2010, with SBC proofing starting shortly after, in June of that year. Service Results: Northern Monkey Punters headline results are excellent, with an overall ROI of 18% and a Return on Capital of 289% in just over three years. With average odds around 10/1 and a strike rate close to 15% its clear that the service has enjoyed a significant edge over the bookmakers.
Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
Note: Bets from February 2010 to end of April 2013. ROC based on 100 point bank.
Theres no doubt that the total figures are heavily influenced by a fantastic 2010, but we can see from the equity chart below that the service has continued to accumulate steady profits throughout its time in operation.
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Feb 2010 -
250
200 150 100 50 0 -50 0 400 800 Points Staked 1200 1600
The services strength in the summer turf season really stands out here, although its interesting to note that the bulk of AW profits came from the season just gone (35.0 points profit from 106.75 points staked over Nov-Mar), after Wayne had adopted his tighter selection criteria. The service has also dabbled unsuccessfully in the past with occasional bets in the National Hunt season, an area Wayne considers his weakest and has now largely shelved. A closer look at the effectiveness of Waynes staking plan is also helpful. The table below both highlights just how successful the more confident, higher staked selections have been, and demonstrates how the service has been held back by the weaker, low-staked picks. The hope is that Waynes new selection/staking approach will filter out the weaker bets, without losing the additional profitability generated by the larger punts.
Stake Size
Small Standard Large
Note: Standard stake is 1 pt (1 pt Win/ 0.5 pt EW). Small stakes were mostly 0.5 pt Win/ 0.25 pt EW, whilst Large stakes were predominantly either 0.75 pt EW or 1 pt EW, with the maximum a 3 pt Win bet.
Wayne tends to advise the majority of bets Each Way making for a smoother ride for subscribers: I discussed this issue with pro punter 'Mr Gekko' in the past and he likened each-way betting to a form of insurance. Ultimately, a punter pays for it (in terms of reduced profit) but it provides peace of mind in terms of psychological effects from shortened losing runs. For those risk-takers amongst you, there is merit in following the service Win only overall ROI stands at 25% for Win only although our view is that, once youve adjusted your betting bank
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to account for the additional risk, youre unlikely to see this translate into increased Return on Capital. Back in SBC56 we were surprised to report that Waynes tips at odds of 5/1 or less had lost money during 2010. With a much bigger sample size under our belts, and the service evolving further, we can now see that NMP is profitable at all odds ranges whilst, in line with most services, still seeing a bigger edge at the higher end of the odds range:
Profitability vs Odds
30.0% 25.0% ROI (%) 20.0% 15.0%
10.0%
5.0% 0.0% Under 5/1 5/1 to 10/1 Odds Ranges 10/1+
Betting Bank: Wayne advises subscribers to use a betting bank in the range 60 100 points. We would recommend a 100 point bank given the selections relatively high average odds (10/1) and the likelihood of seeing a long losing run from time to time. Service Ratings: Returns: 3.5/5 Risk: 4 Cost: 4 Transparency: 4.5 Suggested portfolio weighting: 3.5 Overall: 4/5 Rating: Strong Buy Team Member Experience: Nick I joined Northern Monkey Punter for the 2011 Flat season and now regard the service as a mainstay of my racing portfolio. Admittedly, I wasnt around in the heady days of 2010, but Ive seen decent, steady bank growth over the last two years and remain very confident in Waynes fantastic knowledge and insight, coupled with his level-headedness. I always put a lot of faith in services that look like theyre in it for the long haul, and take great confidence from the way that Wayne has developed the service over time and remained focused and unflustered through both the good and bad times. Last summer was certainly tough for Wayne, but then again the dreadful weather conditions made racing punting hard for everyone several other tipsters I know were also glad to put 2012 behind them. The selection write-ups are a big bonus for me Waynes understanding of the likely sources of pace in the race, and how this may affect the overall running, really show he knows his stuff, and hes not afraid to take a chance at longer odds when he can see clear value in a horse in the middle to bottom end of the market.
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The service is very reasonably priced and Waynes customer service is excellent he even runs the occasional members competition now and again to spice up interest in the likes of Cheltenham and other big festivals. Price sensitivity is a recurring theme amongst all of the popular services and Im pleased to report that NMP holds up pretty well on this front. Whilst you will often find the top-quoted price may get gobbled up within 10-15 minutes of Waynes email, its normally not too much trouble to get on at the next best price down on those occasions. Its helpful that Wayne normally quotes several bookies, covering the best and next best price, and Ive found that this allows me to follow the service effectively by spreading stakes around my mostly-restricted bookmaker accounts (and occasionally Betfair). I took this opportunity to review my personal betting records the other day and was pleased to find that Ive slightly exceeded Waynes official odds my average odds have been 11.8 vs. quoted odds of 11.4, and Ive matched or bettered the advised odds with 77% of the bets Ive placed over the last two years. All in all, a lot to like about Northern Monkey Punter and Im particularly looking forward to seeing how Wayne gets on with his tighter selection and staking approach over the next few months and praying for a bit of sunshine! User Experience: Mike " Living in the US I can only bet to SP, so to find a tipster that can be profitable is one thing, to find one profitable at SP is another. I've been subscribing to NMP since 3/31/12 and in tracking all his picks at his suggested bet units he is currently +4.69 units. For win only, he is +15.13 units. However, given that I can only bet to SP, I have to be a little more creative in how I use tipsters. I currently flat bet all NMP win picks only with SP >= 7, and since 3/31/12 NMP has gained +70.63 units. NMP has great write-ups with his picks that help explain his rationale and give me insight into how one goes about finding bets. I also like that he in constantly looking for ways to better his betting method, making sure he "stays ahead of the bookmakers" so to speak." User Experience: Aodhan "The Northern Monkey: Low subscription rate; Excellent customer relations; Steady profits; Is this as near as we'll get to the Holy Grail of racing tipsters?" User Experience: Brian " I have been with Waynes service since he was first mentioned in SBC. A fantastic service, low number of bets, easy to obtain odds, very reasonably priced subs, generous terms if results hit a bad period, helpful with any queries. Another great, low key, professionally run service with regular returns" User Experience: Veselin
" I've been betting actively on horses since beginning of this year only but already can say that NM has firmly established himself as one of the main cornerstones of my little racing
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services portfolio. I really like his steady results and professional attitude (never chasing losses or something like that). Odds on advised selections are holding pretty well, even taking into account my quite limited bookies accounts left (2 BOGS only, more like 1.5 indeed). Wayne is providing excellent customer support also, advising me on the usual rookie questions. I even enjoy reading his analysis although I don't get more than 40 % of the information really :) Well, I might not know much about horse racing in general, yet I can perfectly estimate any given tipster service in any sport, having tried or back-tested more than 150 services in last few years. Northern Monkey easily ranks in top 5 % of all tipster services out there, excellent value for a very affordable fee." User Experience: Pete "A long term profit of 10%+ is possible even without getting top price on all of the selections- the results are always updated on the last day of the month- bets are issued within a narrow time frame usually between 930-1000 am, the prices are usually with at least 3 bookmakers- there is reasoning behind every bet and a post race analysis and the service costs less than buying the daily express every day"
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To help showcase just how profitable the top 7 tipsters in the Best Tipster Guide actually are, we thought it would be useful to list just how much money you can make if following them in. This ranges from observing the profits of each tipster individually, to the profits if following them as a group or 'portfolio' of tipsters. So in this article, we have an example of a portfolio featuring all 7 tipsters with a 10k bank, plus a more affordable option of the profits available with just 4 tipsters and a 3k bank. This is not to say that you need either 10,000 or even 3,000 to follow any of these tipsters and make a profit from them. You can of course just follow 1 service and make a fine profit, but we thought this article would provide a good examination of the potential profits on offer as a group or combination. Following All 7 Tipsters Together First off, we have the profits on hand if following a 'portfolio' of all 7 tipsters as a combination. Although Its probably unrealistic to expect that any of you would latch onto all 7 tipsters at the same time, it is representative of just why following these 7 tipsters can be profitable. Even when deducting the subscription fees that each tipster charges for their service, there is a clear profit to be made. Don't let the fear of having to spend money on these subscription fees prevent you from making money from following tipsters. Often the fees are affordable and are dwarfed by the profits you can make. Each Tipster Last 3 Years Results To start things off we put together the results for each of the 7 tipsters for the past 3 years as follows: Year 1 runs from the start of May 2010 to the end of April 2011 Year 2 runs from May 2011 to April 2012 Year 3 runs from May 2012 to April 2013. Weve summarised each services three year performance in the following table:
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*Please note, that we have removed the identities of each tipster, aside from Northern Monkey, as this is available to full purchasers of the Best Tipster Guide only.
TABLE KEY Betting Bank: This is the points betting bank recommended for each individual service. Bets: The number of bets advised in the past 3 years. Stake: The total amount of points staked in the past 3 years. Profit: The total points of points profit in the past 3 years. ROI: Return On Investment - indicates the amount you would have won in relation to stakes. ROC: Return on Capital - indicates the amount you would have won in relation to your betting bank. (e.g. a 1365.7% ROC, indicates your betting bank will have grown 13.65 times itself in 3 years).
So as the above table indicates, each of the 7 tipsters in the guide have made a substantial profit over the past 3 years. Each tipster has its own methodology and approach in terms of bet numbers, how quickly they grow your bank and also work involved, but across the board, each is hugely profitable. Setting Up the Portfolio One of the ways we assist all new Secret Betting Club members keen to follow tipsters is to provide advice on how to follow more one tipster service as part of a combined 'portfolio'. This is similar in many ways to how a stock market investor might have a portfolio of stocks and shares. Except in this instance, we are using tipsters. First of all, we have to make sure we get the 'balance' of how much we are staking on each tipster right, so in the example below, we have split our stakes accordingly amongst each of the 7 tipsters. We've also upped the weighting of two services (each at 20% of the portfolios annual turnover), with the remainder balanced equally (about 12% of turnover). Our rationale here was that we regarded Tipsters 2 and 4 as the two strongest elements of our portfolio, so we wanted to rely on their performance a little more heavily. In our calculations, weve also assumed a total starting Financial Betting Bank of 10,000, and allowed for 1.5 times leverage, i.e. we lever more from our 10k bank by allowing the sum of the seven individual banks to exceed 10k (in this case about 50% more at 15,175).
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(Don't worry if this a little complex as when you join us at SBC we have a whole host of simple guides to explain it all in a way you can understand!) 48k Profit In 3 Years With 7 Tipsters The results of this approach are fascinating with a 48,652 profit in 3 years as the table below indicates. What other investment would give you in excess of 100% returns on an annual basis?
Service Tipster 1 Tipster 2 Northern Monkey Tipster 4 Tipster 5 Tipster 6 Tipster 7 Total Staking Level ( per point) 40 35 25 5 25 35 12 Annual Turnover 12,213 19,182 12,360 18,755 10,800 12,600 12,616 98,526 Portfolio Weight 12.4% 19.5% 12.5% 19.0% 11.0% 12.8% 12.8% 100.0% Bank () 4,000 3,500 2,500 500 2,000 875 1,800 15,175 Profit (before costs) Year 1 -312 1,851 4,163 2,124 1,494 118 1,709 11,147 Year 2 5,518 4,976 1,533 2,453 1,341 922 1,957 18,699 Year 3 5,313 8,301 759 2,252 49 808 1,324 18,805
Our overall profit was 48,652 (before costs) but after taking into account subscription costs this dropped to 36,757. Therefore we enjoyed just over a 1,000 average profit per month over a 3 year period. Here are some other facts from this 7 tipster portfolio: Overall, there were 31 winning months and only five losing months over the three year period. The best performing month was March 2013, returning a profit of 4,399 at 46.0% ROI. The worst month was April 2011, with a loss of 857 (ROI -12.9%) Average gross monthly profit was 1,351, whilst net profit was 1,021.
Check out the profit graph of how this 'Best of SBC Portfolio' Bank would have grown over the past 3 years:
(10k bank)
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Compounding Your Bank For Greater Profits So far, weve assumed that a potential investor would leave their staking unchanged throughout the three year period, presumably taking any profits for their personal use but what if, instead, they ploughed all their winnings back into betting, adjusting stake sizes as they went along? The graph below represents profits generated by adjusting stake sizes every three months, reinvesting the previous quarters profits into increased stakes for the forthcoming quarter. On this basis, total profits would have exceeded 135k in three years, although Im not sure that the bookmakers would have let anyone make this sort of money before clamping down on them! In reality, anyone starting with a small financial bank may want to initially use compounding to beef up their stakes to a worthwhile, but sustainable amount after that its probably more about staying under the bookies radar and skimming off future profits for your own use.
20,000
0
Year 1 Year 1 Year 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 2 Year 2 Year 2 Year 3 Year 3 Year 3 Year 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Alternative Portfolios: Another golden rule of portfolio management is to only select tipster services that fit your financial situation. Not everyone has 10,000 set aside and many SBC members start with much smaller sums, so we wanted to illustrate some alternative options for you to consider. For those on a tighter budget, weve assessed the merits of an alternative smaller portfolio, based on the four tipster services with relatively low subscription fees, and used a much lower Financial Betting Bank of 3,000. NB. Weve used only 1.3 times leverage here as the portfolio is smaller.
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Low Budget Portfolio Annual Subscription Fees 965, 3k Financial bank Over the same three year period the overall profit is 10,392 (before tipster costs) with a net profit (after tipster costs) of 7,497. Effectively you would be making an average of around 2.5k per year. Again, illustrating how following tipsters is not just for high stakers or those with a big budget to throw around. The full break-down is as follows...
Staking Level ( per point) Tipster 1 Northern Monkey Tipster 3 Tipster 4 Total 18 11 14 5 Annual Turnover 5,496 5,438 5,040 5,257 21,231 Portfolio Weight 25.9% 25.6% 23.7% 24.8% 100.0% Profit (before costs) Year 1 1,800 1,100 350 750 4,000 -140 1,832 47 712 2,451 Year 2 2,483 674 369 816 4,342 Year 3 2,391 334 323 552 3,599
Bank ()
So there you have it...proof that you can make money following tipsters, whatever your starting point! Get Started Making Money Betting There are numerous ways that you can follow the 7 tipsters that we feature in the Best Tipster Guide and our hope is that this article provides a few examples to get you started! If you enjoyed this article, you can read a lot more on this topic in the Best Tipster Guide, including the profits if following either just football or horse racing tipsters. We also have a whole host of articles dedicated to helping you maximise your profits from following tipsters, available as a Secret Betting Club member that you can read the instant you join our service.
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ENJOYED THIS? GET MORE WITH AN SBC MEMBERSHIP We hope you have enjoyed this free sample of the Best Tipster Guide as much as we have in putting it all together. If so, why not consider a full Secret Betting Club membership, where you can pick up your own copy of the Best Tipster Guide the instant you join! Not only this, but you will also get all the benefits of being a Secret Betting Club subscriber, with regular reports on all the latest and best tipsters and the various ways you can make money betting each month! Don't forget either that membership to the Secret Betting Club comes with a 100% money back guarantee if not satisfied with our service in anyway. Thus you can join with full peace of mind.
DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT NOTICE The views expressed within this article are based on the authors experience alone. Any money used within the services mentioned is done so at the risk of the individual. If you are affiliated with any of the services mentioned and have any questions regarding the points we raise we welcome your correspondence. The Secret Betting Club is for information & education purposes only and does not represent financial advice. There is a risk of loss in betting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is our intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, we cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgment whatsoever. Literary copyright for this document and all the articles herein are held by Minerva Publishing Limited.
All content copyright 2006-2013 Minerva Publishing Ltd. Registered Office: Drake House, Gadbrook Way, Northwich, Cheshire, CW9 7RA
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