Draft Copy

NATIONAL TRANSMISSION AND DESPATCH

COMPANY LTD. PAKISTAN

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST

Based On Regression Analysis
(Period 2008 to 2030)

OFFICE OF G.M. PLANNING POWER

NTDC / PEPCO WAPDA HOUSE LAHORE

February 2008

Table of Contents
Number

1.

Title

Page No.

Glossary of Abbreviations

List of Tables

List of Figures

Executive Summary

5-6

Introduction

1.1

Background

1.2

Strategy

7-8

2.

Historical Power System Supply And Demand Analysis

2.1

Supply Pattern

2.1.1

Load Shedding

2.1.2

Transmission and Distribution Losses

2.1.3

System Load Factor

11

2.1.4

Demand Side Management

12

2.2

Energy Share (Province Wise & Category Wise)

12

3.

Long-Term (Regression Based) Load Forecast

14

3.1

Regression Methodology

14

3.1.1

Parameters of Regression

14

3.2

Regression Relationships

15

3.3

Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

15

3.3.1

Low, Normal and High Scenarios

15

3.4

Projections of Independent Variables

15

3.5

Regression Results

16

3.6

Generation Forecast

17

3.6.1

Projection of Losses

17

3.6.2

Projection of Load Factor

17

3.7

Forecast Results

18

3.8

Forecast with DSM

18

3.9

Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)

18

Glossary of Abbreviations
Sr. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Abbreviations
AGR
COM
DSM
Exp. to KESC
GDP
GoP
GR
GWh
IND
IPPs
KESC
MkWh
NPP
PEPCO
PIDE
PMS
POP
Ps/KWh

Full Word
Agriculture
Commercial
Demand Side Management
Export to Karachi Electric Supply Company
Gross Domestic Product
Government of Pakistan
Growth Rate
Gega Watt Hour
Industrial
Independent Power Producer
Karachi Electric Supply Company
Million Kilo Watt Hour
National Power Plan
Pakistan Electric Power Company
Pakistan Institute Development Economic
Power Market Survey
Population
Paisa Per Kilo Watt Hour

List of Tables
Number Title
1

Summary of Forecast Results (Country)

2-1

Historical Energy Generation, Sale and Losses

2-2

PEPCO Load Factor (Historical)

2-3

KESC Load Factor (Historical)

2-4

Historical Province-Wise Energy Sale (GWh)

3-1

Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

3-2

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Low

3-3

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Normal

3-4

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-High

3-5

Projected GDP Growth Rates

3-6(a)

Actual Population and Customers Country (1970-2007)

3-6(b)

Projected Population and Customers Country (2008-2030)

3-7

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) Low

3-8

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) Normal

3-9

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) High

3-10

Load Forecast (PEPCO) Low

3-11

Load Forecast (PEPCO) Normal

3-12

Load Forecast (PEPCO) High

3-13

Load Forecast (KESC) Low

3-14

Load Forecast (KESC) Normal

3-15

Load Forecast (KESC) High

3-16

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country Low

3-17

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country Normal

3-18

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country High

3-19

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country including DSM

List of Figures
Number Title
1

Summary of Forecast Results Country

2-1

Province wise share in Energy Sale

2-2

Energy Share in Sales (Category wise)

3-1

Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)

Executive Summary
The growth in electric energy use in Pakistan is expected to remain high for many years to come,
and, by 2030, total demand is expected to increase by factors of between 5.6 to 8.2 times over the
present year 2007 level i.e. 18,883 MW. This implies average annual growth rates of between
7.8% and 9.6% of the low and high scenarios of demand respectively. Demand for electric
energy grew at an annual rate of 8.8% for the normal scenario during the period from 2007 to
2030. Many factors influence the load growth, and as these factors are difficult to predict, future
load growth is potentially very variable, hence, needs review periodically. The longer-term
forecast was based on historic relationships between past consumption, economic growth and
number of customers.
The study determined that there was a very significant potential to improve the efficiency of
energy use through programs of DSM. Experience in other countries shows that important capital
and operating cost savings for the electric sector can be obtained through DSM. This study
recommends that Pakistan commit to an aggressive DSM program immediately. A forecast,
including the potential impact of DSM, was prepared and is given in Table 3-19.
The methodology employed in this report is multiple regression technique. The overall energy
demand projections are achieved by summing the forecasted individual category-wise energy
demands (i.e. Domestic, Commercial, Industrial, Agricultural, Traction, Street light and Bulk).
The power demand is thereafter evaluated by adding appropriate losses and employing a suitable
load factor on yearly basis. Three scenarios of the load forecast are illustrated graphically in the
Figure below.
Figure 1

Load Forecast
FIG 1

Summary Of Forecast Results (MW) - Country

160000

Megawatts(MW)

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Years

2021

2023

2025

Low

2027

Normal

2029

High

In the year 2030, under Normal scenario the forecast for Peak Demand is 1,13,695 MW, nearly
15.2 % higher than Low scenario (98,557 MW) and nearly 21.8 % lower than High scenario
(1,45,304 MW). The three principal energy and demand forecasts for the country including
KESC are summarized in the Table below.
Table - 1

Summary of Forecast Results

Description

2015

2020

2025

2030

G.R.
(2007-30)

2007

2010

Low Scenario

83463

112311 176178 261042 370882 500117 8.1%

Normal Scenario

83463

112955 181018 276937 409874 578560 8.8%

High Scenario

92647

113355 185239 295706 470527 735592 9.9%

Low Scenario

111078

143910 212724 307328 436911 589460 7.5%

Normal Scenario

111078

144711 218448 325740 482080 680330 8.2%

High Scenario

111078

145233 223618 348182 554680 868434 9.4%

Low Scenario

18883

24339

35271

51296

73041

98557

Normal Scenario

18883

24474

36217

54359

80566

113695 8.1%

High Scenario

18883

24562

37075

58120

92762

145304 9.3%

Sale (GWh)

Generation (GWh)

Peak Demand (MW)

7.4%

In addition to the above, an overview of load, losses and system demand for the three scenarios
(Low, Normal, High) in the form of MW is depicted in tables Table-1(A), Table-1(B), Table1(C) receptively.
The forecast can be used for generation planning, however, for transmission planning during the
medium term period (2008-2014) PMS (Power Market Survey) forecast (Grid wise demand)
would be advisable and appropriate to be referred, which is in process of development.
It is important to note that in long term planning, a range of forecast is typically developed to
bracket the expectations about higher and lower scenarios for load growth. The longer the
forecast period, the greater is the uncertainty. However to reduce the uncertainty, it is
recommended that Normal scenario should be considered as base case.

Table-1 (A)

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Low

(MW)
Year

Year
Description

Description

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Load

11365

12519

13719

15011

16346

17746

19225

20817

22678

24618

26652

28808

31108

33561

36133

38837

41700

44661

47751

50977

54243

57569

61011

64606

Transmission

1000

1034

1061

1084

1098

1105

1105

1099

1093

1077

1049

1011

1092

1178

1268

1363

1463

1567

1676

1789

1903

2020

2141

2267

Distribution

2242

2337

2420

2496

2557

2605

2642

2670

2705

2721

2717

2696

2911

3140

3381

3634

3902

4179

4468

4770

5076

5387

5709

6045

Auxiliary

531

577

625

675

727

779

834

893

962

1032

1105

1181

1275

1376

1481

1592

1710

1831

1958

2090

2224

2360

2501

2649

Total Losses

3773

3949

4105

4255

4381

4489

4581

4661

4760

4829

4871

4888

5278

5694

6130

6589

7075

7577

8101

8649

9203

9767

10351

10961

15138

16468

17824

19266

20728

22235

23805

25479

27437

29447

31523

33696

36386

39255

42264

45426

48774

52239

55852

59626

63445

67337

71362

75567

Losses

System Demand

Table-1 (B)

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Normal

(MW)
Year

Year
Description

Description

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
11365

12531

13752

15078

16462

17926

19483

21177

23167

25266

27481

29853

32408

35166

38094

41196

44523

48016

51688

55571

59586

63674

67971

72527

Transmission

1000

1035

1064

1088

1106

1116

1119

1118

1117

1105

1082

1048

1137

1234

1337

1446

1562

1685

1814

1950

2091

2234

2385

2545

Distribution

2242

2340

2425

2507

2575

2632

2677

2716

2763

2792

2802

2793

3033

3291

3565

3855

4166

4493

4837

5200

5576

5958

6360

6787

531

578

626

678

732

787

846

908

982

1059

1139

1224

1329

1442

1562

1689

1825

1969

2119

2278

2443

2610

2787

2973

3773

3953

4115

4274

4412

4535

4642

4742

4862

4957

5023

5065

5498

5966

6463

6989

7554

8146

8769

9428

10109

10803

11532

12305

15138

16484

17868

19352

20874

22460

24126

25919

28029

30223

32504

34918

37907

41132

44557

48185

52077

56163

60458

65000

69696

74477

79503

84832

Load

Losses
Auxiliary

Total Losses

System Demand

Table-1 C

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - High

(MW)
Year

Year
Description

Description

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Load

11365

12540

13777

15132

16561

18090

19738

21557

23718

26036

28535

31267

34281

37616

41252

45229

49628

54393

59601

65317

71419

77963

85110

93010

Transmission

1000

1036

1065

1092

1112

1126

1134

1138

1143

1139

1123

1097

1203

1320

1448

1587

1741

1909

2091

2292

2506

2736

2986

3264

Distribution

2242

2341

2430

2516

2590

2656

2712

2764

2829

2877

2909

2926

3208

3520

3860

4232

4644

5090

5577

6112

6683

7295

7964

8703

Auxiliary

531

578

627

681

736

794

857

925

1006

1092

1183

1282

1405

1542

1691

1854

2035

2230

2444

2678

2928

3196

3489

3813

Total Losses

3773

3955

4123

4289

4439

4576

4703

4827

4978

5108

5215

5305

5816

6382

6999

7674

8420

9228

10112

11082

12117

13227

14440

15780

15138

16495

17899

19422

21000

22666

24441

26383

28696

31143

33750

36572

40097

43998

48251

52902

58048

63622

69713

76399

83536

91191

99550 108791

Losses

System Demand

1.

Introduction
1.1

Background

The power system planning broadly covers three segments of an electric power network
namely Generation, Transmission and Distribution facilities. The developments in these
sub-sectors whereas depend on many diverse parameters are also governed by the growth
of economic parameters in domestic, commercial, agricultural and industrial sectors. The
supply-side potential has to be assessed and developed to fulfil the demand side
requirements, and side by side the interconnected system of transmission lines has to be
developed to transmit the generated power to load centres.
The load forecasting has always been the basis of additions of generation plants and
transmission lines in any grid system. WAPDA was created in 1958 and at that time
Pakistan was quite under developed and the total demand of WAPDA was around 100
MW. All along these years the country has been passing through different stages of
development and the peak load met during 2006-07 was 14,941 MW. However a lot of
hydro developments along upper Indus are yet to be carried out, indigenous coal
resources are to be harnessed for power generation and import of power from
neighbouring countries are options which may also be considered. This undoubtedly will
involve huge expenditures which will necessitate least cost options to be adopted after
assessing the future loads and developing a long range power plan to meet demand
targets.

1.2

Strategy

The load forecasting is the fundamental element of power planning involving prediction
of the future levels of power demand to serve as the basis for supply-side and demand
side planning. Load forecasts are prepared for different time frames and level of detail.
Generation planning requires a system level forecast of total generation requirements.
Transmission and distribution planning requires far more load-levels and geographic
details to assess the location, timing and loading of individual lines and transformation
facilities. The load forecast is also used in demand-side management, revenue estimation
and financial planning.
The long-term forecast (2008 to 2030) presented in this report is based on a regression
analysis of past consumption trends and relationships. The long range forecast is
appropriate for generation planning. Segregation of the forecast into load centres and
grid stations is based on PMS model considering developments in sub-sectors of industry,
commerce, agriculture and domestic which have been taking place in a random fashion.
In view of this an extensive data has to be collected for PMS model. Originally data used
to be collected by PMS subdivisions and forwarded to divisional office in Lahore for
final processing.
The data collected for existing loads includes consumption by customer types defined as
domestic, commercial, small industrial, large industrial, tube wells, public lighting and
traction. Energy forecasts are computed for each consumption category at the sub-area
level on the basis of trend analysis per customer sales including new developments in
industrial, domestic and commercial sub-sectors. Industrial, commercial and domestic
load forecasts include interviews, trend projections and a review of the applications for
new and increased service. Customer growth factors, load factors, and diversity factors
are applied separately to estimate the distribution of demand by grid station.

A detailed regression analysis involves the review of fundamental quantitative

relationships in the electricity demand of Pakistan and the related independent variables
in the data like electricity price, sectoral GDP, population etc.
As historical load-shedding estimates are included in the data base, the resulting
equations predict the energy that will be supplied if PEPCO system has no technical or
supply constraints.
This report provides detailed load forecast for PEPCO, KESC and Country for years from
2008 to 2030. The country level forecast has not been disaggregated at grid station level.
It will be undertaken subsequently in the next step.

2.

Historical Power System Supply And Demand

Analysis
2.1 Supply Pattern
Supply characteristics such as load shedding practices, auxiliary, transmission &
distribution losses and the system load factor are essential ingredients needed to forecast
generation as well as electricity demand requirements.

2.1.1 Load Shedding

PEPCO and KESC systems are currently supply constrained in both capacity and
transmission capability necessitating selective interruption of supply seasonally at peak
and during off-peak periods as well. Load shedding will continue until sufficient
additional capacity can be brought on line to recover suppressed demand and satisfy new
growth.
In the meantime several measures, in addition to capacity addition, are proposed and
being implemented on an urgent basis to avert / mitigate the load shedding crises.
Presently NPCC (National Power Control Centre) estimates the daily quantum of demand
/ energy deficit and DISCOs have the responsibility to implement the shedding as per
criteria of distribution of rural / urban and priority feeders. A maximum quantum of 2,546
MW has been shed in year 2007. Following are the main reasons of load shedding:

Reasons of Load Shedding

Sufficient generation capacity has not been added in the National Grid to meet
the load requirements.
Hydro capacity limitations due to water shortages in the reservoirs of Hydel
plants during winter period
Reduced gas quotas for thermal plants in winter due to increased consumption
of gas in domestic sector.
Generation capacity de-ration of old GENCO plants in summer due to weather
conditions
The forecasts developed in this report have accounted for load shedding. It is, therefore,
assumed that the energy demand will be fully met. To that end, the sales data used in the
regression, for example, has been adjusted to include an estimate of the energy shed.
Thus, the sales figures reported here will tend to be higher than the actual level of sales
reported in the official NTDC statistics publications.

2.1.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses

During the 1980s, WAPDA introduced programs to reduce power and energy losses
throughout its system, the implementation of which proved to be quite fruitful. Present
high level of system losses particularly distribution losses suggests that loss reduction
efforts should continue to receive considerable attention in the near term in order to
effectively reduce the cost of electricity to the customers. The following table contains a
summary of energy generation, sale and auxiliary, transmission & distribution losses
since 1997 for both PEPCO and KESC.

Table 2-1

Historical Energy Generation, Sale and Losses

Gross
Generation

Auxiliary
Consumption

Energy
sent out

Transmission
Losses

Distribution
Losses

Units
sold

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

1997

50782

1222

2.4

49560

4169

8.2

6862

13.5

38529

1998

53259

1071

2.0

52188

4470

8.4

8296

15.6

39422

1999

53683

935

1.7

52748

4181

7.8

9667

18.0

38900

2000

55873

1200

2.1

54673

4017

7.2

9746

17.4

40910

2001

58455

1173

2.0

57282

4594

7.9

9304

15.9

43384

2002

60860

1318

2.2

59542

4600

7.6

9738

16.0

45204

GR(1997-2002)

3.7%

1.5%

3.7%

2.0%

2003

64040

1346

2.1

62694

4908

7.7

10365

16.2

47421

2004

69094

1397

2.0

67697

5054

7.3

11151

16.1

51492

2005

73520

1464

2.0

72056

5467

7.4

11247

15.3

55342

2006

82225

1821

2.2

80404

5839

7.1

12160

14.8

62405

2007

87837

1762

2.0

86075

5709

6.50

12797

14.6

67569

GR(2002-2007)

7.6%

6.0%

7.6%

4.4%

1997

9327

489

6.6

8715

270

2.9

2853

30.6

5640

1998

10348

494

4.8

9854

259

2.5

3125

30.2

6385

1999

10620

470

4.4

10150

266

2.5

3656

34.4

6131

2000

11446

512

4.5

10934

286

2.5

4113

35.9

6430

2001

11677

534

4.6

11143

292

2.5

3810

32.6

6923

2002

12115

568

4.7

11547

303

2.5

4444

36.7

6718

GR(1997-2002)

5.4%

3.0%

5.8%

2.3%

2003

12616

581

4.6

12035

315

2.5

4594

36.4

6976

2004

13392

662

4.9

12730

335

2.5

4485

33.5

7818

2005

13593

661

4.9

12932

340

2.5

4085

30.1

8416

2006

14500

685

4.7

13815

363

2.5

4393

30.3

9060

2007

14876

639

4.3

14237

372

2.5

4498

30.2

9367

GR(2002-2007)

4.2%

2.4%

4.3%

4.2%

Source:
Note:

Power System Statistics by Planning Power NTDC (31st issue) & KESC letters.
Gross Generation of PEPCO includes Export to KESC.
Auxiliary losses of IPPs are not included in Gross Generation of PEPCO.

Year

PEPCO

3.2%

8.4%

KESC

9.3%

0.2%

3.6%

6.9%

The figures indicate that PEPCO distribution losses dropped from 18 % to 14.6 % of
gross generation during 1999 to 2007. In KESC, distribution losses are significantly high
and range from 30.2% to 36.7% during the past 10 years.

2.1.3 System Load Factor

The annual load factor depends to a high degree on the composition of loads on the
system and how these loads vary seasonally. The load factors for PEPCO and KESC for
the period 2002-2007 are tabulated below. These figures have been calculated on the
basis of computed energy generation and computed peak demand for the two systems i.e.
taking into account the load shedding and excluding import/export of electricity between
PEPCO and KESC.

Table 2-2
PEPCO Load Factor (Historical)
Period

Computed Gross Computed Peak Load

Generation (GWh) Demand (MW)
(%)

2001-02

59876

10109

67.6

2002-03

62677

10484

68.2

2003-04

67738

11078

69.8

2004-05

71306

12035

67.6

2005-06

79743

13212

68.9

2006-07

85211

15138

64.3

Factor

Average Load Factor (2001-02 to 2005-06)

68.4
Note:
IPPs auxiliary losses are not included.
Source:
Power System Statistics (31st issue) Planning Department NTDC

Table 2-3
KESC Load Factor (Historical)
Period

Gross Generation Peak Demand

Load Factor (%)
(GWh)
(MW)

2001-02

12115

1885

73.4

2002-03

12617

1973

72.9

2003-04

13389

2073

73.7

2004-05

13593

2197

70.6

2005-06

14500

2223

74.5

2006-07

14876

2349

72.3

Average Load Factor (2001-02 to 2006-07)

72.9
st
Source:
Power System Statistics (31 issue) Planning Department NTDC
Load management efforts to reduce or shift industrial loads with non-continuous
processes, and other large tube well use at peak, likely have also contributed to load
factor improvements.

2.1.4 Demand Side Management

Load forecasting must consider changes in both supply-side and demand-side efficiency
as a power system expands over time. Supply-side efficiency is concerned with how well
the technical and non-technical losses on the transmission and distribution system can be
controlled, as well as the relative amount of generator station service consumption and
equipment performance.
The growing attention to demand-side efficiency is motivated by the cost effectiveness of
demand-side management (DSM) in improving the system load factor, and its potential
for reducing overall load growth, while maintaining acceptable levels of service.

Benefits of DSM
Among the benefits are
The potential for deferment or reduction of bulk transmission and generation
investment leading to reduced capital cost.
The deferment of tariff increases.
The reduction of environmental impacts of generation.
The decrease in the cost of power as a proportion of production cost in the
economy.
NTDC has the target to improve the load factor by employing the DSM techniques and
by promoting the Industrial share in the composition of system load. It is expected that
the load factor of the system shall improve to 71% provided the proposed DSM measures
are implemented. The estimated impact of DSM on the load forecast has been considered
in Chapter-3 in future projections.

2.2 Energy Share (Province Wise & Category Wise)

PEPCO and KESC have detailed statistics on historical electricity sales and number of
consumers for various electricity consuming sectors which capture the combined
influence of the various factors underlying growth in electricity demand. Some of the
salient features of this statistics are summarized in the following paragraphs.
Energy Share in Sales (Province wise)
The province-wise share of energy sale for the year 2006-07 is shown below in the form
of a pie chart.

Province Wise Share in Energy Sale

KESC
13%
Sindh
excluding
KESC
7%

NWFP
12%
Punjab
62%

Baluchistan
6%

Figure 2-1
Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue)
Planning Department NTDC
The province wise share in energy sales (1997-2007) is shown in the following table.

Table 2-4

Historical Province-Wise Energy Sale (GWh)

Period

Punjab

Sindh with
KESC

Baluchistan

NWFP

Pakistan

1997

25119

9513

1666

6638

42936

1998

25639

10526

1704

6794

44663

1999

25214

10248

1687

6243

43392

2000

27033

10117

1822

6528

45500

2001

28796

10718

2138

6843

48495

2002

30565

10441

2552

7000

50558

2003

32355

10618

2864

6759

52596

2004

35399

11572

3267

7230

57468

2005

37706

12424

3500

7648

61278

2006

42024

13511

3834

8260

67629

2007

45389

14210

3968

8464

72031

AAGR(1997-2007)

6.1%

4.1%

9.1%

2.5%

5.3%

Source:

Power System Statistics by Planning Power NTDC (31st issue)

Energy Share in Sales (Category wise)

Following figure shows category wise share in electricity sales for the year 2006-07.

o th e rs
2 1%

D o m e s tic
38%

A g ric u lt u re
10 %

In d u s t ria l
25%

C o m m e rc ia l
6%

Figure 2-2
Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue)
Planning Department NTDC

Long-Term (Regression Based) Load Forecast

The long term forecast is determined through regression analysis of past energy consumption
trends using a statistical data base for WAPDA and KESC system for the period 1970 to 2006
and other government publications and economic statistics. Following the Grid Code NTDC
(clause PC 4.2 of the planning code), three scenarios low, normal and high have been developed
considering economic & demographic factors and tariff etc.

3.1 Regression Methodology

The forecasts of WAPDA and KESC sales by consumption category are determined by
regression equations relating these sales to the growth in a number of independent
variables. Regression analysis is concerned with describing and evaluating the
relationship between a given variable (often called the explained or dependent variable)
and one or more other variables (often called the explanatory or independent variables).

3.1.1 Parameters of Regression

Dependent Variables (Y)

Electricity consumption (GWh) for various consumer categories including

domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture.
Independent Variables (X)
The potential independent variables (demographic and economic) for regression analysis
included:

Total GDP

GDP by major sector (agriculture, manufacturing, trade, services, etc.)

Electricity revenue per kWh sold by customer class (real price)

Number of customers by consumption category

Lag variables
In many cases, dependence of variable Y (Dependent Variable) on another Variable X
(Independent variable) is not instantaneous. Very often Y responds to X with a lapse of
time. Such a lapse of time is called Lag.
Dummy Variable
Dependence of variable Y (Dependent Variable) is not only influenced by variables
which can be quantified on some well defined scale (e.g., income, price, costs, etc.) but
also by variables which are essentially qualitative in nature (e.g., sex, race, colour,
Change in Government Policy, etc.). Such qualitative variables usually indicate presence
or absence of a quality by assuming 0 and 1 value and are referred as dummy variables.

3.2 Regression Relationships

Within the regression analysis, each of the independent variables (e.g. population, Gross
Domestic Product, customers etc) was tested as an explanatory variable for the growth
pattern in the dependent variable (Sales). For each combination of dependent and
independent variables tested, the analysis calculates the least squares coefficient relating
the variables and a number of measures (T-statistics, Minimum Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) and minimum probability) of the goodness-of-fit of the
proposed equation. One equation was selected for each major consumption category
(domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture) for each utility (PEPCO and KESC).
In general the equations were selected on the basis of the equation displaying the bestfit between the sales and the appropriate independent variable.

3.3 Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

There are four elasticities corresponding to GDP, Real Price, Lag and Customers for
each customer category Domestic, Commercial, Agriculture and Industrial as shown in
Table 3-1.

3.3.1 Low, Normal and High Scenarios.

The modified long term elasticity of each sector was gradually reduced or increased
depending upon the scenario which is explained in detail in the Tables 3-2 to Table 3-4.

3.4 Projections of Independent Variables

Projections of the key independent variables used in the long-term regression model
are as under:
GDP Growth by Sector (Country)
Projected GDP growth rates used in preparing load forecast of energy demand are
based on forecast prepared by planning commission. This economic forecast
provides growth rates by economic sector. The regression equations which utilize
income as an independent variable (GDP as a proxy variable for income) implicitly
assume that historical income and electricity consumption ratio would be applicable
in the future. Given the low relative levels of income measured in per capita terms
and the fact that the per capita income would remain in a low band which
characterizes developing countries of similar economic structure, it is assumed that
income-to-energy consumption relationships will not change appreciable over the
forecast period. The projections of GDP obtained from Planning & Development
Division are presented in Table 3-5.
Electricity Prices
Real changes in future electricity prices will be determined by the cash flow
requirements of the utilities, and this, in turn, will be dependent on the planned
capital investment program. Until the investment program and related revenues are
determined, it is not possible to estimate the impact on electricity sales of real price
changes. In this load forecast, real price changes have been assumed to be zero, in
line with historical tariff increases.

Domestic Customers
The projection of population, domestic and agriculture customer are presented in
Table 3-6. As far as population is concerned, its growth rate for the last three years
was 1.9% and it is applied throughout the forecast period. The domestic customers
are adjusted in order to capture the number of domestic customers present in a
single bulk supply connection for a housing scheme.
Electrified Households.
In 1980 the electrified household percentage was 30% and in 1998 the electrified
households were 70% as reported in the respective census reports. However, the
percentage of electrified households is estimated to be 97% in the year 2030 as
shown in Table 3-6.
Agricultural Customers
The average annual growth rate of last ten years is 3.39 % which has been used
throughout the regression period as shown in Table 3-6.

3.5 Regression Results

Once the growth rates in the independent variables (domestic & agricultural customers,
category wise GDP, etc) are determined, the growth rates for the various consumption
categories are readily calculated using the general equation for the regression analysis
given below:
Y T = YT-1 * (1+GR of G)b *(1+GR of R)C * (1+GR of L) d *(1+GR of C)e
Where in the above equation
Y

Represents electricity demand (Sales GWh)

GR

Represents Growth Rate

G, R, L,C

Represent independent variable (GDP, Real Price, Lag and Customers

respectively)

Represents current year or time period,

T-1

Represents previous year or time period,

b, c, d, e

Represent elasticities of independent variables. (GDP, Real Price, Lag

and Customers respectively)

The category-wise sale (GWh) forecast for the low, normal, and high scenarios of the
country are shown in Table 3-7, Table 3-8 and Table 3-9 respectively with the categorywise sale (GWh) break up between PEPCO and KESC on the basis of historical share of
each category for the last five years.

3.6 Generation Forecast

In order to work out generation forecast from the energy sale, the important parameters
are power system losses i.e. distribution losses, transmission losses, auxiliary
consumption and load factor for PEPCO and KESC system. These are discussed as
follows:

3.6.1 Projection of Losses

PEPCO System
The present level of PEPCO transmission losses is 6.6% and these losses have been
gradually reduced to 3% from year 2007-08 up to the year 2017-18. Further these are
kept constant for the rest of the forecast period. However the present level of
distribution losses is 14.8%. These losses are reduced gradually upon 8% from the year
2007-08 to 2017-18, and then kept constant up to the year 2029-30. Auxiliary
consumption in PEPCO system at present is 3.5% and is kept constant throughout the
forecast period. These losses reduction pattern is presented in Tables 3-10 to 3-12.

KESC System
Present level of transmission losses (2.5%) is kept constant throughout the forecast
period. The distribution losses have been reduced gradually from 29.7% to 17.5% upto
the year 2014-15 and then these are kept constant for the rest of the forecast period.
Auxiliary consumption in KESC system is kept 4% constant throughout the forecast
period. These are presented in Tables 3-13 to 3-15.

3.6.2 Projections of Load Factor

PEPCO System
The average load factor from the year 2001-02 to 2005-06 comes out to be 68.4%
(Table 2-2). As per discussions in different meetings with Deputy Chief Energy Wing
Planning & Development Division, acting Chief Energy Wing Planning &
Development Division and Manager Generation Planning, the current load factor is
kept constant (65.1%) for the next one years and after that it is increased upto 68% in
the year 2013-14 and then it is kept constant for the rest of the forecast period. The
projections of load factor for PEPCO are shown in Tables 3-10 to 3-12.

KESC System
The base case load factor 73.6% is reduced gradually to 65% in the year 2020-21 and
then it is kept constant for the rest of the forecast period as per decision in the meeting
with Advisor to KESC on planning and energy. These projections are shown in Tables
3-13 to 3-15.

3.7 Forecast Results

Based on the above system parameters, forecasts of computed energy sale, generation and
peak demand have been developed for PEPCO, KESC and Country.
Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for PEPCO system, are shown in Table 3-10,
Table 3-11 and Table 3-12 respectively.
Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for KESC system, are shown in Table 3-13,
Table 3-14 and Table 3-15 respectively.
Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for the Country are shown in Table 3-16, Table
3-17 and Table 3-18 respectively.

3.8 Forecast with DSM

The impact of DSM on the forecast considering a load factor improvement of 71%, with
the proposed DSM measures, is presented year wise in Table 3-19.

3.9 Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)

The constitution of loads provides vital information to predict the shape of daily, monthly
and annual load curves. The over all load factor of a system having greater percentage of
domestic load is always less than a system having greater percentage of industrial load.
In addition to this, the economic well being and financial status of a country is assessed
from the constitution of loads i.e. what nature of industrial development is taking place in
the country. In this connection, it is worth while to highlight the composition of loads at
various intervals of the forecast period from 2008 to 2030 in the form of pie chart given
in figure 3-1.

Table 3-1

Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

Sales Category

Variables

Domestic

GDP Per Capita

Real-Price
Domestic Sales lag (-2)
Domestic Customers Lag (-1)
Dummy
Constant

0.7226
-0.1375
0.3287
0.7057
0.0000
-11.242

Commercial

GDP-Commercial
Real-Price Lag (-1)
Commercial Sales Lag (-2)
Commercial Customers
Dummy
Constant

1.4009
-0.5453
0.3826
0.0000
0.0000
-11.239

Industrial

Industrial GDP Per Capita

Real Price With Self Generation
Industrial Sales lag
Dummy
Constant

1.30922
-0.44205
0.00000
0.24732
-4.14178

Agriculture

GDP-Agriculture
Real-Price
Agriculture Sales lag
Agricultural Customers Lag (-2)
Dummy
Constant

1.16506
-0.28023
0.00000
0.73473
-0.24805
-14.4201

Elasticities

Figures in the brackets are corresponding Lag values

These elasticity coefficients are calculated by Regression Analysis using the software
E-Views on the basis of 1970 to 2006 data.
Dummy variable minimizes the unevenness of the curve at rare places.

Table 3-2

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Low

Year
1
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

GDP Short - term Elasticities(Used)

Dom
2
0.7226
0.7204
0.7183
0.7162
0.7140
0.7119
0.7097
0.7076
0.7055
0.7033
0.7012
0.6991
0.6969
0.6948
0.6926
0.6905
0.6884
0.6862
0.6841
0.6819
0.6798
0.6777
0.6755
0.6734
0.6713

Com
3
1.4009
1.3683
1.3356
1.3030
1.2703
1.2377
1.2050
1.1724
1.1397
1.1071
1.0744
1.0418
1.0092
0.9765
0.9439
0.9112
0.8786
0.8459
0.8133
0.7806
0.7480
0.7153
0.6827
0.6501
0.6174

Ind
4
1.3092
1.2963
1.2835
1.2706
1.2577
1.2448
1.2319
1.2190
1.2061
1.1933
1.1804
1.1675
1.1546
1.1417
1.1288
1.1160
1.1031
1.0902
1.0773
1.0644
1.0515
1.0387
1.0258
1.0129
1.0000

Agri
5
1.1651
1.1582
1.1513
1.1444
1.1376
1.1307
1.1238
1.1169
1.1100
1.1032
1.0963
1.0894
1.0825
1.0757
1.0688
1.0619
1.0550
1.0481
1.0413
1.0344
1.0275
1.0206
1.0138
1.0069
1.0000

Dom
6
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287

Lag Elasticities

Com
7
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826

Ind
8
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

Agri
9
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

GDP Long - Term Elasticities

Dom
10
1.0764
1.0733
1.0701
1.0669
1.0637
1.0605
1.0573
1.0541
1.0510
1.0478
1.0446
1.0414
1.0382
1.0350
1.0318
1.0287
1.0255
1.0223
1.0191
1.0159
1.0127
1.0096
1.0064
1.0032
1.0000

Com
11
2.2690
2.2161
2.1633
2.1104
2.0575
2.0046
1.9518
1.8989
1.8460
1.7931
1.7403
1.6874
1.6345
1.5816
1.5288
1.4759
1.4230
1.3701
1.3173
1.2644
1.2115
1.1586
1.1058
1.0529
1.0000

Ind
12
1.3092
1.2963
1.2835
1.2706
1.2577
1.2448
1.2319
1.2190
1.2061
1.1933
1.1804
1.1675
1.1546
1.1417
1.1288
1.1160
1.1031
1.0902
1.0773
1.0644
1.0515
1.0387
1.0258
1.0129
1.0000

1. Elasticities for Domestic, Commercial, Industrial and Agriculture Sectors are assumed to decrease linearly to unity assuming saturation, by the year 2030.
2. The exercise has been conducted in consultation with Chief Economist, Planning & Development Division and Energy Wing,Planning Commission of Pakistan.
3. The decreasing pattern of elasticities was suggested by multiple regression analysis conducted for different time series and a similar
study conducted by "Ms. Standard and Poors" ( McGraw Hills Study Division; A Study for Planning and Development Division, Pakistan).
4. GDP short term elasticities for the year 2005-06 and lag elasticities are taken from table 3-1.
5. The long term elasticities for the year 2005-06 are calculated using formula, Long term elasticity = short term elasticity / (1-lag elasticity)
6. The short term elasticities (2006-07 to 2029-30) are converted using the formula, short term elasticity = long term elasticity * (1- lag elasticity)

Agri
13
1.1651
1.1582
1.1513
1.1444
1.1376
1.1307
1.1238
1.1169
1.1100
1.1032
1.0963
1.0894
1.0825
1.0757
1.0688
1.0619
1.0550
1.0481
1.0413
1.0344
1.0275
1.0206
1.0138
1.0069
1.0000

Table 3-3

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Normal

Year
1
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
1.
2.
3.
4.

GDP Short - term Elasticities(Used)

Dom
2
0.7226
0.7204
0.7183
0.7162
0.7140
0.7119
0.7097
0.7076
0.7055
0.7033
0.7012
0.6991
0.6969
0.6948
0.6926
0.6905
0.6884
0.6862
0.6841
0.6819
0.6798
0.6777
0.6755
0.6734
0.6713

Com
3
1.4009
1.3683
1.3356
1.3030
1.2703
1.2377
1.2050
1.1724
1.1397
1.1071
1.0744
1.0418
1.0092
0.9765
0.9439
0.9112
0.8786
0.8459
0.8133
0.7806
0.7480
0.7153
0.6827
0.6501
0.6174

Ind
4
1.3092
1.3172
1.3251
1.3331
1.3410
1.3490
1.3569
1.3649
1.3728
1.3808
1.3887
1.3967
1.4046
1.4126
1.4205
1.4285
1.4364
1.4444
1.4523
1.4603
1.4682
1.4762
1.4841
1.4921
1.5000

Agri
5
1.1651
1.1582
1.1513
1.1444
1.1376
1.1307
1.1238
1.1169
1.1100
1.1032
1.0963
1.0894
1.0825
1.0757
1.0688
1.0619
1.0550
1.0481
1.0413
1.0344
1.0275
1.0206
1.0138
1.0069
1.0000

Dom
6
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287

Lag Elasticities

Com
7
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826

Ind
8
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

Agri
9
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

GDP Long - Term Elasticities

Dom
10
1.0764
1.0733
1.0701
1.0669
1.0637
1.0605
1.0573
1.0541
1.0510
1.0478
1.0446
1.0414
1.0382
1.0350
1.0318
1.0287
1.0255
1.0223
1.0191
1.0159
1.0127
1.0096
1.0064
1.0032
1.0000

Com
11
2.2690
2.2161
2.1633
2.1104
2.0575
2.0046
1.9518
1.8989
1.8460
1.7931
1.7403
1.6874
1.6345
1.5816
1.5288
1.4759
1.4230
1.3701
1.3173
1.2644
1.2115
1.1586
1.1058
1.0529
1.0000

Ind
12
1.3092
1.3172
1.3251
1.3331
1.3410
1.3490
1.3569
1.3649
1.3728
1.3808
1.3887
1.3967
1.4046
1.4126
1.4205
1.4285
1.4364
1.4444
1.4523
1.4603
1.4682
1.4762
1.4841
1.4921
1.5000

Elasticities for Domestic Commercial and Agriculture Sectors are assumed to decrease linearly to unity by the year 2030.
Assuming a great cussion in the industrial sector throughout the forecast period, its long term elasticity is increased to 1.5 in the year 2029-30.
The exercise has been conducted in consultation with Chief Economist, Planning & Development Division and Energy Wing,Planning Commission of Pakistan.
The decreasing pattern of elasticities was suggested by multiple regression analysis conducted for different time series and a similar
study conducted by "Ms. Standard and Poors" ( McGraw Hills Study Division; A Study for Planning and Development Division, Pakistan).
5. GDP short term elasticities for the year 2005-06 and lag elasticities are taken from table 3-1.
6. The long term elasticities for the year 2005-06 are calculated using formula, Long term elasticity = short term elasticity / (1-lag elasticity)
7. The short term elasticities (2006-07 to 2029-30) are converted using the formula, short term elasticity = long term elasticity * (1- lag elasticity)

Agri
13
1.1651
1.1582
1.1513
1.1444
1.1376
1.1307
1.1238
1.1169
1.1100
1.1032
1.0963
1.0894
1.0825
1.0757
1.0688
1.0619
1.0550
1.0481
1.0413
1.0344
1.0275
1.0206
1.0138
1.0069
1.0000

Table 3-4

Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-High

Year
1
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
1.
2.
3.
4.

GDP Short - term Elasticities(Used)

Dom
2
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226
0.7226

Com
3
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009
1.4009

Ind
4
1.3092
1.3193
1.3293
1.3393
1.3494
1.3594
1.3694
1.3795
1.3895
1.3995
1.4095
1.4196
1.4296
1.4396
1.4497
1.4597
1.4697
1.4798
1.4898
1.4998
1.5099
1.5199
1.5299
1.5400
1.5500

Agri
5
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651

Dom
6
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287
0.3287

Lag Elasticities

Com
7
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826
0.3826

Ind
8
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

Agri
9
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

GDP Long - Term Elasticities

Dom
10
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764
1.0764

Com
11
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690
2.2690

Ind
12
1.3092
1.3193
1.3293
1.3393
1.3494
1.3594
1.3694
1.3795
1.3895
1.3995
1.4095
1.4196
1.4296
1.4396
1.4497
1.4597
1.4697
1.4798
1.4898
1.4998
1.5099
1.5199
1.5299
1.5400
1.5500

Elasticities for Domestic Commercial and Agriculture Sectors are kept constant considering saturation upto 2030.
Assuming a great cussion in the industrial sector throughout the forecast period, its long term elasticity is increased to 1.55 in the year 2029-30.
The exercise has been conducted in consultation with Chief Economist, Planning & Development Division and Energy Wing,Planning Commission of Pakistan.
The decreasing pattern of elasticities was suggested by multiple regression analysis conducted for different time series and a similar
study conducted by "Ms. Standard and Poors" ( McGraw Hills Study Division; A Study for Planning and Development Division, Pakistan).
5. GDP short term elasticities for the year 2005-06 and lag elasticities are taken from table 3-1.
6. The long term elasticities for the year 2005-06 are calculated using formula, Long term elasticity = short term elasticity / (1-lag elasticity)
7. The short term elasticities (2006-07 to 2029-30) are converted using the formula, short term elasticity = long term elasticity * (1- lag elasticity)

Agri
13
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651
1.1651

Table 3-5

Projected GDP Growth Rates

Year
2005-06

Gross Domestic Product (%)

GDP Per Capita (%)

Total

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

6.6

6.7

9.3

3.3

Total

Industrial

2006-07

7.3

7.4

9.9

3.9

5.4

7.4

2007-08

7.6

7.7

10.0

4.2

5.6

7.9

2008-09

8.0

8.1

10.3

4.6

6.0

8.0

2009-10

8.0

8.1

10.2

4.6

6.0

8.3

2010-11

8.0

8.1

10.1

4.6

6.0

8.2

2011-12

7.5

7.6

9.4

4.1

5.5

8.1

2012-13

7.5

7.6

9.4

4.1

5.5

7.4

2013-14

7.5

7.6

9.3

4.1

5.5

7.4

2014-15

7.5

7.6

9.2

4.1

5.5

7.3

2015-16

7.0

7.1

8.6

3.6

5.0

7.2

2016-17

7.0

7.1

8.5

3.6

5.2

6.8

2017-18

7.0

7.1

8.4

3.6

5.2

6.7

2018-19

7.0

7.1

8.4

3.6

5.2

6.6

2019-20

7.0

7.1

8.3

3.6

5.2

6.6

2020-21

6.8

6.9

8.0

3.4

5.0

6.5

2021-22

6.8

6.9

8.0

3.4

5.0

6.2

2022-23

6.8

6.9

7.9

3.4

5.0

6.2

2023-24

6.5

6.6

7.6

3.2

4.7

6.1

2024-25

6.5

6.6

7.5

3.2

4.7

5.8

2025-26

6.5

6.6

7.5

3.2

4.7

5.7

2026-27

6.0

6.1

6.9

2.7

4.4

5.9

2027-08

6.0

6.1

6.9

2.7

4.4

5.3

2028-29

6.0

6.1

6.9

2.7

4.4

5.3

2029-30

6.0

6.1

6.8

2.7

4.4

5.3

ACGR
(2007-30)

7.0

7.1

8.4

3.6

5.2

6.7

Source:-

Planning and Development Division-Energy Wing (Ref: Fax dated 23-9-2007).

Table 3-6 (a)

Actual Population and Customers-Country (1970-2007)

Fiscal Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

Population
(Millions)
60.5
62.9
65.3
66.9
68.9
71.0
73.2
75.4
77.8
80.1
82.6
85.1
87.7
90.3
93.0
95.7
98.4
101.2
104.0
106.8
109.7
112.6
115.5
118.5
121.5
124.5
127.5
130.6
133.5
136.7
137.5
140.4
143.2
146.8
149.7
152.5
155.4
158.2
GR(2005-07)

Domestic Customers

GR (%)
3.9
3.9
2.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.4
0.6
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9

No.
1001355
1079120
1168700
1258735
1358546
1476377
1614251
1792657
1988342
2192409
2446122
2882760
3175192
3462075
3763925
4041867
4367026
4733578
5190717
5777465
6213113
6600380
7053833
7498804
7943668
8324139
8755937
9165447
9501865
10005352
10783360
11314947
11776806
12350278
13086453
13888765
14837490
15563723
GR(2000-07)

GR(%)
7.8
8.3
7.7
7.9
8.7
9.3
11.1
10.9
10.3
11.6
17.9
10.1
9.0
8.7
7.4
8.0
8.4
9.7
11.3
7.5
6.2
6.9
6.3
5.9
4.8
5.2
4.7
3.7
5.3
7.8
4.9
4.1
4.9
6.0
6.1
6.8
4.9
5.4%

House Hold
Size
No.
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80
6.80

House Holds Domestic Customer Adjusted

Electrified
Households

Adj. Factor
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36

%
16.39
17.00
17.72
18.63
19.52
20.58
21.83
23.53
25.32
27.09
29.33
33.54
35.86
37.96
40.09
41.83
43.94
46.32
49.42
53.54
56.07
58.03
60.45
62.65
64.74
66.20
67.99
69.50
70.48
72.47
72.53
74.53
76.06
77.80
80.84
84.23
88.30
90.98

No
8894118
9242647
9604412
9835294
10135294
10445588
10766176
11094118
11433824
11783824
12144118
12513235
12892647
13279412
13670588
14069118
14472059
14879412
15292647
15711765
16133824
16560294
16991176
17426471
17864706
18307353
18751471
19200000
19629412
20101471
20220588
20647059
21058824
21588235
22014706
22426471
22852941
23264706

No
1457973
1571199
1701627
1832718
1978043
2149605
2350349
2610109
2895026
3192148
3561554
4197299
4623080
5040781
5480275
5884958
6358390
6892090
7557684
8411989
9046293
9610153
10270381
10918259
11565981
12119946
12748644
13344891
13834715
14567793
14665370
15388328
16016456
16796378
17797576
18888720
20178986
21166663

Agricultural Customers
No.
46949
50728
52882
59007
64258
70249
77117
82424
90961
96294
102579
104745
111904
115132
119048
121697
125849
131006
137861
144920
150620
153231
156461
154300
158962
163556
166365
168521
171903
174476
176004
182005
185683
193487
200418
202531
222394
235212
GR(1997-2007)

GR(%)
8.05
4.25
11.58
8.90
9.32
9.78
6.88
10.36
5.86
6.53
2.11
6.83
2.88
3.40
2.23
3.41
4.10
5.23
5.12
3.93
1.73
2.11
-1.38
3.02
2.89
1.72
1.30
2.01
1.50
0.88
3.41
2.02
4.20
3.58
1.05
9.81
5.76
3.39

Table 3-6 (b)

Projected Population and Customers-Country (2008-2030)

Fiscal Year

Population

Domestic Customers

House Hold
Size

House Holds Domestic Customer Adjusted

Electrified
Households

Agricultural Customers

(Millions)

GR (%)

No.

GR(%)

No.

No

Adj. Factor

No

No.

GR(%)

2008

161.2

1.9

16200992

4.1

6.80

23707117

1.36

22033350

92.94

243186

3.39

2009

164.3

1.9

16734747

3.3

6.80

24157941

1.36

22759256

94.21

251430

3.39

2010

167.4

1.9

17152209

2.5

6.80

24617337

1.36

23327004

94.76

259953

3.39

2011

170.6

1.9

17495253

2.0

6.80

25085470

1.36

23793544

94.85

268766

3.39

2012

173.8

1.9

17845158

2.0

6.80

25562506

1.36

24269415

94.94

277877

3.39

2013

177.1

1.9

18202061

2.0

6.80

26048612

1.36

24754804

95.03

287297

3.39

2014

180.5

1.9

18566103

2.0

6.80

26543963

1.36

25249900

95.12

297036

3.39

2015

183.9

1.9

18937425

2.0

6.80

27048733

1.36

25754898

95.22

307106

3.39

2016

187.4

1.9

19316173

2.0

6.80

27563103

1.36

26269996

95.31

317516

3.39

2017

191.0

1.9

19702497

2.0

6.80

28087254

1.36

26795395

95.40

328280

3.39

2018

194.6

1.9

20096547

2.0

6.80

28621372

1.36

27331303

95.49

339409

3.39

2019

198.3

1.9

20498477

2.0

6.80

29165647

1.36

27877929

95.58

350915

3.39

2020

202.1

1.9

20908447

2.0

6.80

29720272

1.36

28435488

95.68

362811

3.39

2021

205.9

1.9

21326616

2.0

6.80

30285445

1.36

29004198

95.77

375110

3.39

2022

209.9

1.9

21753148

2.0

6.80

30861365

1.36

29584282

95.86

387827

3.39

2023

213.8

1.9

22188211

2.0

6.80

31448237

1.36

30175967

95.95

400974

3.39

2024

217.9

1.9

22631976

2.0

6.80

32046269

1.36

30779487

96.05

414567

3.39

2025

222.1

1.9

23084615

2.0

6.80

32655673

1.36

31395076

96.14

428621

3.39

2026

226.3

1.9

23546307

2.0

6.80

33276666

1.36

32022978

96.23

443151

3.39

2027

230.6

1.9

24017233

2.0

6.80

33909468

1.36

32663438

96.33

458174

3.39

2028

235.0

1.9

24497578

2.0

6.80

34554304

1.36

33316706

96.42

473706

3.39

2029

239.4

1.9

24987530

2.0

6.80

35211402

1.36

33983040

96.51

489764

3.39

2030

244.0

1.9

25487280

2.0

6.80

35880996

1.36

34662701

96.60

506367

3.39

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2005-06 and Census reports.

The average growth rate of the last three years (1.9%) is applied to population from 2008-30.
The average growth rate of the last ten years (3.39%) is applied to agricultural customers from 2008-30.
Domestic customers are increased such that 97 % population becomes electrified in the year 2030.
An adjustment factor is used to capture the number of domestic customers present in a single bulk supply connection for a housing scheme.

Table 3-7

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-Low

Domestic

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

Public Light

Traction

Bulk

Total

Self Generation

Gross Total

Year

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Sum

2006-07

30110

4008

4456

1023

18283

3676

8410

82

316

65

12

3267

789

64854

9643

6820

2146

71674

11789

83463

2007-08

33314

4541

5016

1386

20218

3992

9042

83

299

103

12

3493

1088

71393

11193

7519

2366

78912

13559

92471

2008-09

36319

4951

5788

1600

22293

4401

9756

89

316

113

11

3872

1206

78356

12360

8290

2609

86646

14969

101615

2009-10

39873

5435

6782

1875

24641

4865

10528

90

364

127

11

4324

1347

86525

13739

9164

2884

95689

16622

112311

G.R. (2007-10)

9.6%

9.0%

9.4%

10.0%

6.9%

3.8%

6.9%

14.4%

-3.8%

9.3%

8.2%

9.6%

10.4%

9.7%

9.7%

9.6%

10.3%

9.7%

2010-11

43369

5912

2011-12

47119

2012-13

51031

2013-14
2014-15

15.1% 17.4%
7890

2181

27178

5366

11358

92

400

140

11

4804

1497

95010

15186

10107

3180

105117

18367

123484

6423

9157

2531

29912

5905

12184

92

439

155

11

5330

1661

104152

16767

11124

3500

115276

20267

135543

6956

10572

2922

32634

6443

13063

95

481

171

10

5884

1834

113675

18420

12136

3819

125811

22239

148050

55241

7530

12166

3363

35570

7022

14000

99

526

189

10

6491

2023

124005

20225

13228

4163

137233

24388

161621

59729

8142

13940

3853

38693

7639

14997

106

575

208

7149

2228

135087

22175

14389

4528

149476

26703

176178

G.R. (2010-15)

8.4%

8.4%

15.5% 15.5%

9.4%

9.4%

7.3%

3.3%

9.6%

10.4%

-18.5%

10.6%

10.6%

9.3%

10.0%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2015-16

64353

8772

15835

4376

42006

8293

15977

113

626

228

7843

2444

146643

24226

15621

4916

162264

29142

191405

2016-17

69301

9446

17916

4952

45269

8937

17016

120

681

249

8574

2672

158762

26377

16835

5298

175597

31675

207271

2017-18

74536

10160

20160

5572

48695

9614

18118

128

740

273

9351

2914

171603

28660

18108

5698

189712

34358

224070

2018-19

80144

10924

22600

6246

52281

10322

19288

136

802

297

10184

3173

185303

31099

19442

6118

204745

37218

241963

2019-20

86129

11740

25225

6972

56087

11073

20527

145

870

324

11074

3451

199916

33705

20858

6564

220773

40269

261042

G.R. (2015-20)

7.6%

7.6%

12.6% 12.6%

9.4%

9.4%

6.5%

6.5%

8.6%

9.3%

0.0%

9.1%

9.1%

8.2%

8.7%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2020-21

92424

12598

28003

7740

60060

11857

21797

154

940

352

12011

3743

215239

36444

22335

7028

237574

43473

281047

2021-22

99151

13515

30969

8559

64067

12649

23139

164

1016

382

12995

4049

231342

39319

23825

7497

255167

46816

301983

2022-23

106306

14490

34104

9426

68290

13482

24559

174

1097

414

14037

4374

248396

42361

25396

7992

273792

50352

324144

2023-24

113736

15503

37334

10319

72664

14346

26007

184

1180

447

15114

4709

266039

45508

27022

8503

293061

54012

347073
370882

2024-25

121651

16582

40719

11254

77032

15208

27534

195

1268

482

16233

5058

284441

48780

28646

9015

313088

57794

G.R. (2020-25)

7.2%

7.2%

10.1% 10.1%

9.4%

9.4%

6.0%

6.0%

7.8%

8.3%

-0.4%

7.9%

7.9%

7.3%

7.7%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2025-26

130013

17722

44217

12221

81525

16095

29145

206

1361

519

17396

5421

303662

52184

30317

9540

333979

61724

395703

2026-27

138482

18876

47688

13180

86220

17022

30691

217

1454

555

18573

5787

323112

55639

32063

10090

355176

65729

420904

2027-28

147451

20099

51246

14164

90601

17887

32313

229

1552

594

19763

6158

342930

59130

33692

10603

376622

69732

446354

2028-29

156813

21375

54819

15151

95145

18784

34015

241

1653

633

20982

6538

363430

62722

35382

11134

398813

73856

472669

2029-30

166737

22728

58447

16154

99855

19714

35800

253

1759

674

22243

6931

384844

66454

37134

11685

421978

78139

500117

G.R. (2025-30)

6.5%

6.5%

7.5%

7.5%

9.4%

9.4%

5.4%

5.4%

6.8%

6.9%

-2.2%

6.5%

6.5%

6.2%

6.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

109.4%

G.R.(2007-30)

7.7%

7.8%

11.8% 12.7%

7.7%

7.6%

6.5%

5.0%

7.8%

10.7%

-5.2%

8.7%

9.9%

8.0%

8.8%

7.6%

7.6%

8.0%

8.6%

8.1%

Note:

Energy Shed in the base year has been added in the major customer categories proportionally.

Table 3-8

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-Normal

Domestic

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

Public Light

Bulk

Self Generation

Gross Total

Year

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Total

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Sum

30110

4008

4456

1023

18283

3676

8410

82

316

65

381

12

3267

789

64854

9643

6820

2146

71674

11789

83463

2007-08

33314

4541

5016

1386

20282

4004

9042

83

299

103

402

12

3497

1090

71462

11207

7542

2373

79004

13580

92585

2008-09

36319

4951

5788

1600

22472

4436

9756

89

316

113

429

11

3884

1210

78546

12399

8357

2630

86903

15029

101932

5435

6782

1875

127

491

2009-10

39873
9.8%

25004

4936

10528

90

364

11.0%

10.3%

7.8%

3.3%

4.9%

2010-11

43369

5912

7890

2011-12

47119

6423

9157

2181

27805

5489

11358

92

400

140

2531

30901

6101

12184

92

439

155

2012-13

51031

6956

10572

2922

34066

6725

13063

95

481

2013-14

55241

7530

12166

3363

37576

7418

14000

99

526

3853

10.7% 15.0% 22.4%

PEPCO KESC PEPCO

Total

2006-07

G.R. (2007-10)

KESC PEPCO

Traction

11

4349

1355

86913

13818

9298

2926

96211

16744

112955

-2.2%

10.0%

19.8%

10.3%

12.7%

10.9%

10.9%

10.3%

12.4%

10.6%

541

11

4846

1510

95680

15324

10340

3254

106020

18577

124597

595

11

5398

1682

105209

16983

11491

3616

116700

20600

137300

171

652

10

5982

1864

115205

18733

12668

3987

127873

22720

150593

189

715

10

6628

2065

126147

20664

13974

4397

140121

25061

165182

208

783

181018

24.9% 8.9%

2014-15

59729

8142

13940

41418

8177

14997

106

575

G.R. (2010-15)

8.4%

8.4%

15.5% 15.5%

9.4%

9.4%

7.3%

3.3%

9.6%

7335

2285

137998

22771

15403

4847

153401

27618

11.0%

11.0%

9.7%

10.5%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2015-16

64353

8772

15835

4376

45622

9007

15977

113

626

228

854

9.4%

8089

2520

150505

25017

16966

5339

167471

30355

197826

2016-17

69301

9446

17916

4952

49894

9850

17016

120

681

249

931

8889

2770

163701

27388

18554

5839

182256

33227

215483

2017-18

74536

10160

20160

5572

54523

10764

18118

128

740

2018-19

80144

10924

22600

6246

59535

11754

19288

136

802

273

1012

9748

3038

177829

29934

20276

6381

198105

36315

234420

297

1100

10678

3327

193050

32685

22140

6967

215190

39652

2019-20

86129

11740

25225

6972

65039

12840

20527

145

254842

870

324

1194

11684

3641

209477

35662

24186

7611

233663

43273

276937

10.4% 9.8% -18.5%

G.R. (2015-20)

7.6%

7.6%

12.6% 12.6%

9.4%

9.4%

6.5%

6.5%

8.6%

9.3%

8.8%

0.0%

9.8%

9.8%

8.7%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2020-21

92424

12598

28003

7740

70993

14016

21797

154

940

352

1293

12756

3975

226917

38835

26401

8308

253318

47143

300461

2021-22

99151

13515

30969

8559

77222

15246

23139

164

1016

382

1399

13891

4329

245394

42195

28717

9037

274111

51232

325343

2022-23

106306

14490

34104

9426

84037

16591

24559

174

1097

414

1511

15109

4708

265216

45804

31252

9834

296468

55638

352106

2023-24

113736

15503

37334

10319

91373

18039

26007

184

1180

447

1627

16388

5107

286022

49599

33980

10693

320002

60292

380294

2024-25

121651

16582

40719

11254

98991

19543

27534

195

1268

482

1750

17729

5524

307896

53581

36813

11584

344709

65165

409874

G.R. (2020-25)

7.2%

7.2%

10.1% 10.1%

9.4%

9.4%

6.0%

6.0%

7.8%

8.3%

8.0%

-0.4%

8.7%

8.7%

8.0%

8.5%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2025-26

130013

17722

44217

12221

107145

21153

29145

206

1361

519

1879

19141

5964

331027

57786

39845

12539

370872

70324

441196

2026-27

138482

18876

47688

13180

116021

22905

30691

217

1454

555

2009

20603

6420

354942

62154

43145

13577

398088

75732

473820

2027-28

147451

20099

51246

14164

124645

24608

32313

229

1552

594

2145

22082

6881

379293

66574

46353

14587

425645

81160

506805

2028-29

156813

21375

54819

15151

133963

26448

34015

241

1653

633

2286

23626

7362

404892

71209

49818

15677

454709

86886

541595

2029-30

166737

22728

58447

16154

144032

28436

35800

253

1759

674

2432

25252

7869

432030

76113

53562

16855

485592

92968

578560

G.R. (2025-30)

6.5%

6.5%

7.5%

7.5%

9.4%

9.4%

5.4%

5.4%

6.8%

6.9%

6.8%

-2.2%

7.3%

7.3%

7.0%

7.3%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

109.4%

G.R.(2007-30)

7.7%

7.8%

11.8% 12.7%

9.4%

9.3%

6.5%

5.0%

7.8%

10.7% 8.4%

-5.2%

9.3%

10.5%

8.6%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

8.7%

9.4%

8.8%

Note:

Energy Shed in the base year has been added in the major customer categories proportionally.

Table 3-9

Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-High

Domestic

Commercial

Industrial

Agriculture

Public Light

Traction

Bulk

Year

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC PEPCO

2005-06

27671

3852

3860

986

17002

3285

8066

78

279

74

13

3032

2006-07

30110

4008

4456

1023

18283

3676

8410

82

316

65

12

2007-08

33322

4542

5040

1393

20288

4005

9047

83

300

103

12

2008-09

36341

4954

5861

1620

22490

4440

9771

89

316

114

11

2009-10

25040

4944

10557

91

366

128

Total

Self Generation

Gross Total

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

PEPCO

KESC

Sum

983

59923

9258

6317

1988

66240

11246

77486

3267

789

64854

9643

6820

2146

71674

11789

83463

3502

1091

71510

11218

7545

2374

79055

13592

92647

3897

1214

78686

12430

8363

2632

87050

15062

102112

11

4378

1364

87224

13888

9312

2930

96536

16819

113355

39921

5442

6951

1921

G.R. (2007-10)

9.6%

9.0%

15.8%

18.2%

9.4%

10.0%

7.0%

3.9%

7.0%

14.6%

-3.8%

9.6%

8.5%

9.8%

10.7%

10.2%

10.2%

9.9%

10.6%

10.0%

2010-11

43454

5923

8213

2270

27869

5502

11407

92

403

142

11

4901

1527

96257

15456

10364

3261

106621

18717

125338

2011-12

47252

6441

9714

2685

31002

6121

12256

93

445

158

11

5491

1711

106171

17208

11529

3628

117700

20836

138536

2012-13

51229

6983

11473

3171

34212

6754

13166

95

490

176

10

6131

1910

116712

19090

12723

4004

129435

23094

152529

2013-14

55523

7568

13556

3747

37782

7459

14142

100

539

196

10

6856

2136

128408

21207

14050

4421

142459

25628

168087

2014-15

60117

8194

16009

4425

41701

8233

15187

107

595

219

7671

2390

141283

23568

15508

4880

156791

28448

185239

G.R. (2010-15)

8.5%

8.5%

18.2%

18.2%

9.4%

9.4%

7.5%

3.5%

10.1%

11.2%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

2015-16

64865

8842

18785

5192

46000

9082

16218

115

155090

26142

17106

5383

172197

31525

203722

10.2% 11.4% -18.5%

653

243

11.9% 11.9%
8565

2669

2016-17

69965

9537

22038

6091

50381

9947

17319

123

719

271

9549

2976

169976

28943

18736

5896

188712

34839

223551

2017-18

75380

10275

25792

7128

55143

10887

18495

131

790

302

10645

3317

186250

32040

20506

6453

206757

38493

245250

2018-19

81206

11069

30182

8342

60313

11907

19751

140

870

336

11879

3701

204206

35496

22429

7058

226635

42554

269189

959

375

4135

224070

39364

24547

7725

248617

47089

295706

9.7%

10.8%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

245730

43638

26846

8448

272576

52087

324663

2019-20

87450

11920

35287

9753

66009

13032

21093

149

G.R. (2015-20)

7.8%

7.8%

17.1%

17.1%

9.4%

9.4%

6.8%

6.8%

2020-21

94042

12819

41147

11372

72191

14252

22474

159

10.0% 11.4%
1056

419

13269

0.0%

11.6% 11.6%

14817

4617

2021-22

101119

13783

47962

13256

78678

15533

23946

169

1164

468

16545

5155

269419

48366

29259

9207

298678

57573

356251

2022-23

108680

14814

55849

15436

85799

16939

25515

181

1285

524

18492

5762

295624

53656

31907

10041

327531

63696

391227

2023-24

116563

15889

64768

17901

93491

18457

27125

192

1416

585

20642

6432

324010

59457

34767

10941

358777

70397

429174

1563

655

7179

355033

65868

37748

11879

392780

77747

470527

9.6%

10.8%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

389081

72982

40949

12886

430029

85868

515897

2024-25

125000

17039

75084

20752

101506

20040

28837

204

G.R. (2020-25)

7.4%

7.4%

16.3%

16.3%

9.4%

9.4%

6.5%

6.5%

2025-26

133956

18259

86906

24020

110114

21739

30656

217

10.3% 11.8%
1725

733

23040

-0.4%

11.7% 11.7%

25719

8014

2026-27

143060

19500

99915

27615

119517

23596

32407

229

1898

816

28632

8922

425431

80678

44445

13986

469876

94664

564541

2027-28

152747

20821

114803

31730

128686

25406

34258

242

2089

910

31825

9917

464412

89026

47855

15059

512267

104085

616353

2028-29

162906

22206

131569

36364

138626

27368

36214

256

2300

1015

35365

11020

506983

98228

51552

16223

558535

114451

672986

2029-30

173728

23681

150750

41665

149406

29496

38282

271

2534

1132

39340

12258

554044

108504

55560

17484

609604

125988

735592

G.R. (2025-30)

6.8%

6.8%

15.0%

15.0%

9.4%

9.4%

5.8%

5.8%

10.2% 11.6%

-2.2%

11.3% 11.3%

9.3%

10.5%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

109.4%

G.R.(2007-30)

7.9%

8.0%

16.5%

17.5%

9.6%

9.5%

6.8%

5.3%

9.5%

-5.2%

11.4% 12.7%

9.8%

11.1%

9.5%

9.5%

9.8%

10.8%

9.9%

Note:

13.2%

Energy Shed in the base year has been added in the major customer categories proportionally.

Table 3-10

Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-Low

Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed
Sale

Losses
Transmission

Distribution

T & D Losses

Losses

Energy
Sent Out

Auxillaries

Total

Energy
Generated

Load
Factor

Computed Peak
Demand

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%) (GWh)

(%)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(%)

(MW)

64854
71393
78356
86525
10.09%
95010
104152
113675
124005
135087
9.3%
146643
158762
171603
185303
199916
8.2%
215239
231342
248396
266039
284441
7.3%
303662
323112
342930
363430
384844
6.2%

6.61
6.28
5.95
5.62

5709
5898
6060
6246

14.81
14.19
13.57
12.96

12797
13330
13819
14387

21.4
20.5
19.5
18.6

18506
19228
19879
20633

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

3028
3292
3568
3892

24.9
24.0
23.0
22.1

21534
22520
23447
24525

6381
6484
6532
6545
6512

12.34
11.72
11.10
10.48
9.86

14862
15290
15620
15902
16112

17.6
16.7
15.7
14.8
13.8

21242
21773
22152
22447
22624

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

4223
4574
4934
5320
5729

21.1
20.2
19.2
18.3
17.3

25465
26348
27086
27766
28353

3.66
3.33
3.00
3.00
3.00

6413
6249
6022
6502
7015

9.24
8.62
8.00
8.00
8.00

16206
16185
16057
17339
18707

12.9
11.9
11.0
11.0
11.0

22619
22435
22079
23842
25722

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

6148
6582
7035
7597
8196

16.4
15.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

28767
29017
29114
31439
33918

3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

7553
8118
8716
9335
9981

8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00

20141
21647
23243
24894
26616

11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0

27693
29765
31959
34229
36597

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

8824
9485
10184
10907
11662

14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

36518
39250
42143
45136
48258

3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

10655
11338
12033
12753
13504

8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00

28415
30235
32089
34007
36011

11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0

39070
41573
44122
46760
49515

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

12450
13247
14059
14900
15778

14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

51519
54819
58182
61660
65293

86388
93914
101803
111050
8.73%
120475
130500
140761
151771
163439
8.0%
175410
187779
200718
216741
233834
7.4%
251757
270592
290540
311175
332700
7.3%
355181
377932
401111
425090
450137
6.2%

65.1
65.1
65.2
65.8

5.30
4.97
4.64
4.31
3.98

83360
90622
98235
107158
8.73%
116252
125926
135827
146452
157711
8.0%
169262
181197
193682
209144
225637
7.4%
242933
261107
280356
300268
321038
7.3%
342732
364685
387052
410190
434359
6.2%

15138
16468
17824
19266
8.37%
20728
22235
23805
25479
27437
7.3%
29447
31523
33696
36386
39255
7.4%
42264
45426
48774
52239
55852
7.3%
59626
63445
67337
71362
75567
6.2%

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
8.0%
7.4%
Note: The base year sale, generation and demand are computed figures excluding export to KESC and including load shedding.
Auxiliary consumption of IPPs are added proportionally.
*Excluding KESC export.

7.4%

66.4
67.0
67.5
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0

7.2%

Table 3-11

Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-Normal

Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed
Sale

(GWh)
64854
71462
78546
86913
10.25%
95680
105209
115205
126147
137998
9.7%
150505
163701
177829
193050
209477
8.7%
226917
245394
265216
286022
307896
8.0%
331027
354942
379293
404892
432030
7.0%

Losses
Transmission

Distribution

T & D Losses

(%)
6.61
6.28
5.95
5.62

(GWh)
5709
5904
6075
6274

(%)
14.81
14.19
13.57
12.96

(GWh)
12797
13343
13853
14451

(%)
21.4
20.5
19.5
18.6

(GWh)
18506
19247
19927
20725

5.30
4.97
4.64
4.31
3.98

6426
6549
6620
6658
6652

12.34
11.72
11.10
10.48
9.86

14966
15445
15830
16177
16459

17.6
16.7
15.7
14.8
13.8

21392
21994
22450
22834
23111

3.66
3.33
3.00
3.00
3.00

6582
6444
6240
6774
7351

9.24
8.62
8.00
8.00
8.00

16633
16689
16640
18064
19601

12.9
11.9
11.0
11.0
11.0

23215
23133
22880
24838
26952

3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

7962
8611
9306
10036
10804

8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00

21233
22962
24817
26764
28811

11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0

29196
31573
34123
36800
39615

3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

11616
12455
13309
14208
15160

8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00

30975
33213
35491
37887
40426

11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0

42591
45668
48801
52094
55586

Energy
Sent Out
(GWh)
83360
90709
98474
107638
8.89%
117072
127203
137655
148982
161110
8.4%
173720
186834
200709
217888
236429
8.0%
256113
276967
299339
322823
347511
8.0%
373618
400610
428093
456986
487616
7.0%

Losses
Total

Auxillaries
(%) (GWh)
3.5
3028
3.5
3295
3.5
3577
3.5
3910

(%)
24.9
24.0
23.0
22.1

(GWh)
21534
22542
23504
24635

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

4253
4621
5000
5412
5852

21.1
20.2
19.2
18.3
17.3

25645
26615
27450
28246
28964

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

6310
6787
7291
7915
8588

16.4
15.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

29525
29919
30171
32753
35540

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

9303
10061
10873
11726
12623

14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

38499
41634
44997
48527
52238

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

13571
14552
15550
16600
17712

14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

56162
60220
64351
68694
73298

Energy
Generated

Load
Factor

Computed Peak
Demand

(GWh)
86388
94004
102051
111548
8.89%
121324
131824
142655
154394
166962
8.4%
180030
193621
208000
225803
245017
8.0%
265416
287027
310213
334549
360134
8.0%
387189
415162
443644
473586
505328
7.0%

(%)
65.1
65.1
65.2
65.8

(MW)
15138
16484
17868
19352
8.53%
20874
22460
24126
25919
28029
7.7%
30223
32504
34918
37907
41132
8.0%
44557
48185
52077
56163
60458
8.0%
65000
69696
74477
79503
84832
7.0%

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
8.6%
8.0%
8.0%
Note: The base year sale, generation and demand are computed figures excluding export to KESC and including load shedding.
Auxiliary consumption of IPPs are added proportionally.
*Excluding KESC export.

66.4
67.0
67.5
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0

7.8%

Table 3-12

Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-High

Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
G.R. (2006-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)

Computed
Sale
(GWh)
64854
71510
78686
87224
10.38%
96257
106171
116712
128408
141283
10.1%
155090
169976
186250
204206
224070
9.7%
245730
269419
295624
324010
355033
9.6%
389081
425431
464412
506983
554044
9.3%
9.8%

Losses
Transmission

Distribution

T & D Losses

(%)
6.61
6.28
5.95
5.62

(GWh)
5709
5908
6085
6296

(%)
14.81
14.19
13.57
12.96

(GWh)
12797
13352
13878
14503

(%)
21.4
20.5
19.5
18.6

(GWh)
18506
19260
19963
20799

5.30
4.97
4.64
4.31
3.98

6465
6609
6706
6777
6810

12.34
11.72
11.10
10.48
9.86

15057
15586
16038
16467
16851

17.6
16.7
15.7
14.8
13.8

21521
22196
22744
23244
23662

3.66
3.33
3.00
3.00
3.00

6783
6691
6535
7166
7863

9.24
8.62
8.00
8.00
8.00

17139
17329
17428
19108
20967

12.9
11.9
11.0
11.0
11.0

23922
24019
23963
26274
28829

3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

8623
9454
10373
11369
12458

8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00

22994
25210
27662
30319
33221

11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0

31616
34664
38036
41688
45679

3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

13653
14928
16296
17790
19441

8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00

36407
39809
43456
47440
51843

11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0

50060
54737
59752
65230
71285

Energy
Sent Out
(GWh)
83360
90770
98649
108023
9.02%
117778
128366
139456
151652
164945
8.8%
179012
193996
210214
230479
252900
8.9%
277347
304083
333660
365698
400712
9.6%
439141
480168
524165
572213
625329
9.3%
9.2%

Losses
Total

Auxillaries
(%) (GWh) (%)
3.5 3028 24.9
3.5 3297 24.0
3.5 3583 23.0
3.5 3924 22.1

(GWh)
21534
22557
23546
24723

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

4278
4663
5066
5509
5992

21.1
20.2
19.2
18.3
17.3

25799
26858
27809
28752
29653

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

6503
7047
7636
8372
9186

16.4
15.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

30424
31066
31599
34646
38016

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

10074
11046
12120
13284
14556

14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

41691
45710
50156
54972
60235

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

15951
17442
19040
20785
22715

14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
14.5

66012
72179
78792
86015
93999

Energy
Generated
(GWh)
86388
94067
102233
111947
9.02%
122057
133029
144521
157161
170936
8.8%
185515
201042
217850
238851
262086
8.9%
287421
315129
345780
378981
415268
9.6%
455092
497610
543205
592999
648043
9.3%
9.2%

Note: The base year sale, generation and demand are computed figures excluding export to KESC and including load shedding.
Auxiliary consumption of IPPs are added proportionally.
*Excluding KESC export.

Load Computed Peak

Factor
Demand
(%)
65.1
65.1
65.2
65.8
66.4
67.0
67.5
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.0

(MW)
15138
16495
17899
19422
8.66%
21000
22666
24441
26383
28696
8.1%
31143
33750
36572
40097
43998
8.9%
48251
52902
58048
63622
69713
9.6%
76399
83536
91191
99550
108791
9.3%
9.0%

Table 3-13

Load Forecast (KESC)-Low

Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed
Sale
(GWh)
9643
11193
12360
13739
12.5%
15186
16767
18420
20225
22175
10.0%
24226
26377
28660
31099
33705
8.7%
36444
39319
42361
45508
48780
7.7%
52184
55639
59130
62722
66454
6.4%

Distribution
(%) (GWh)

Losses
Transmission
(%) (GWh)

T & D Losses
(%) (GWh)

29.7
28.0
26.5
25.0

4498
4781
4885
5011

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

372
419
453
492

32.1
30.5
29.0
27.5

4870
5201
5338
5503

23.5
22.0
20.5
19.0
17.5

5095
5156
5170
5155
5103

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

532
575
619
666
716

26.0
24.5
23.0
21.5
20.0

5627
5731
5789
5821
5819

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

5575
6070
6595
7157
7756

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

782
852
925
1004
1088

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

6357
6922
7521
8161
8845

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

8387
9048
9748
10473
11226

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

1177
1269
1368
1469
1575

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

9564
10318
11116
11942
12800

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

12009
12804
13607
14434
15293

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

1685
1796
1909
2025
2146

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

13694
14600
15516
16459
17438

Energy
Sent Out
(GWh)
14513
16394
17698
19242
9.9%
20814
22498
24209
26047
27994
7.8%
30583
33299
36181
39260
42550
8.7%
46008
49636
53477
57451
61580
7.7%
65878
70239
74646
79181
83892
6.4%

Losses
Auxiliary
Total
(%) (GWh) (%) (GWh)
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.0

638
683
737
802

36.3
34.5
33.0
31.5

5508
5884
6076
6305

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

867
937
1009
1085
1166

30.0
28.5
27.0
25.5
24.0

6495
6669
6797
6906
6985

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

1274
1387
1508
1636
1773

24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

7632
8309
9028
9797
10618

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

1917
2068
2228
2394
2566

24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

11481
12386
13344
14336
15366

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

2745
2927
3110
3299
3495

24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

16439
17527
18627
19758
20934

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
8.8%
7.9%
Note: Base year Energy Sale is computed sale including energy shed & excluding export to PEPCO .
Base year Energy Generated is computed energy generated by KESC.
Base year Peak Demand is computed peak including import from PEPCO.

Energy
Generated
(GWh)

Load
Factor
(%)

Computed
Peak Demand
(MW)

15151
17077
18436
20044
9.8%
21681
23436
25217
27132
29160
7.8%
31857
34686
37688
40896
44323
8.7%
47925
51705
55705
59844
64146
7.7%
68622
73166
77757
82480
87387
6.4%

73.6
73.0
72.4
71.8

2349
2670
2907
3188
10.7%
3478
3792
4116
4468
4845
8.7%
5342
5869
6436
7049
7711
9.7%
8417
9081
9783
10510
11266
7.9%
12052
12850
13656
14485
15347
6.4%

7.9%

71.2
70.5
69.9
69.3
68.7
68.1
67.5
66.8
66.2
65.6
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0

8.5%

Table 3-14

Load Forecast (KESC)-Normal

Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed
Sale
(GWh)
9643
11207
12399
13818
12.7%
15324
16983
18733
20664
22771
10.5%
25017
27388
29934
32685
35662
9.4%
38835
42195
45804
49599
53581
8.5%
57786
62154
66574
71209
76113
7.3%

Distribution
(%) (GWh)

Losses
Transmission
(%) (GWh)

T & D Losses
(%) (GWh)

29.7
28.0
26.5
25.0

4498
4787
4901
5040

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

372
420
454
495

32.1
30.5
29.0
27.5

4870
5207
5355
5535

23.5
22.0
20.5
19.0
17.5

5141
5222
5257
5267
5240

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

537
583
630
681
735

26.0
24.5
23.0
21.5
20.0

5678
5805
5887
5947
5975

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

5757
6303
6889
7522
8207

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

808
884
966
1055
1151

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

6565
7187
7855
8577
9358

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

8937
9710
10541
11414
12330

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

1254
1362
1479
1601
1730

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

10191
11073
12020
13016
14060

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

13298
14303
15320
16387
17516

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

1866
2007
2149
2299
2457

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

15164
16310
17470
18686
19973

Energy
Losses
Energy
Sent Out
Auxiliary
Total
Generated
(GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh)
(GWh)
14513
16414
17754
19353
10.1%
21002
22789
24620
26611
28746
8.2%
31581
34575
37790
41263
45021
9.4%
49026
53268
57823
62615
67641
8.5%
72949
78465
84043
89895
96086
7.3%

4.2
4.0
4.0
4.0

638
684
740
806

36.4
34.5
33.0
31.5

5508
5891
6095
6341

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

875
950
1026
1109
1198

30.0
28.5
27.0
25.5
24.0

6553
6755
6913
7056
7173

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

1316
1441
1575
1719
1876

24.0 7881
24.0 8628
24.0 9430
24.0 10296
24.0 11234

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

2043
2219
2409
2609
2818

24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

12234
13292
14429
15624
16879

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

3040
3269
3502
3746
4004

24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

18203
19580
20972
22432
23977

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
9.4%
8.6%
Note: Base year Energy Sale is computed sale including energy shed & excluding export to PEPCO .
Base year Energy Generated is computed energy generated by KESC.
Base year Peak Demand is computed peak including import from PEPCO.

15151
17098
18494
20159
10.0%
21877
23738
25646
27720
29944
8.2%
32897
36016
39364
42982
46896
9.4%
51069
55487
60232
65224
70460
8.5%
75989
81734
87545
93641
100089
7.3%
8.6%

Load
Factor
(%)

Computed
Peak Demand
(MW)

73.6
73.0
72.4
71.8

2349
2673
2916
3206
10.9%
3509
3841
4186
4565
4976
9.2%
5516
6094
6722
7408
8159
10.4%
8969
9745
10578
11455
12374
8.7%
13345
14354
15375
16446
17578
7.3%

71.2
70.5
69.9
69.3
68.7
68.1
67.5
66.8
66.2
65.6
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0

9.1%

Table 3-15

Load Forecast (KESC)-High

Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15

G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25

G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30

G.R. (2025-30)

Computed
Sale
(GWh)
9643
11218
12430
13888
12.9%
15456
17208
19090
21207
23568
11.2%
26142
28943
32040
35496
39364
10.8%
43638
48366
53656
59457
65868
10.8%
72982
80678
89026
98228
108504
10.5%

Distribution
(%) (GWh)

Losses
Transmission
(%) (GWh)

T & D Losses
(%) (GWh)

29.7
28.0
26.5
25.0

4498
4792
4913
5065

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

372
420
455
497

32.1
30.5
29.0
27.5

4870
5212
5368
5563

23.5
22.0
20.5
19.0
17.5

5186
5291
5358
5405
5424

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

542
591
642
698
761

26.0
24.5
23.0
21.5
20.0

5727
5882
5999
6104
6185

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

6016
6661
7373
8169
9059

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

844
934
1034
1146
1271

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

6860
7595
8408
9315
10330

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

10042
11130
12348
13683
15158

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

1409
1562
1732
1920
2127

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

11451
12692
14080
15602
17285

17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5
17.5

16795
18566
20487
22605
24970

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

2356
2605
2874
3171
3503

20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0

19151
21171
23362
25776
28473

Energy
Sent Out
(GWh)
14513
16430
17799
19451
10.3%
21183
23090
25090
27310
29753
8.9%
33002
36539
40447
44811
49694
10.8%
55090
61058
67736
75059
83153
10.8%
92133
101849
112388
124005
136977
10.5%

Losses
Energy
Auxiliary
Total
Generated
(%) (GWh) (%) (GWh)
(GWh)
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.0

638
685
742
810

36.4
34.5
33.0
31.5

5508
5897
6110
6373

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

883
962
1045
1138
1240

30.0
28.5
27.0
25.5
24.0

6610
6844
7045
7242
7424

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

1375
1522
1685
1867
2071

24.0 8235
24.0 9118
24.0 10093
24.0 11182
24.0 12400

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

2295
2544
2822
3127
3465

24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

13747
15236
16902
18730
20750

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

3839
4244
4683
5167
5707

24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
24.0

22990
25415
28045
30943
34180

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
11.1%
10.3%
Note: Base year Energy Sale is computed sale including energy shed & excluding export to PEPCO .
Base year Energy Generated is computed energy generated by KESC.
Base year Peak Demand is computed peak including import from PEPCO.

15151
17114
18540
20262
10.2%
22066
24052
26135
28448
30993
8.9%
34377
38061
42133
46678
51765
10.8%
57385
63602
70558
78186
86618
10.8%
95972
106093
117071
129172
142684
10.5%
10.2%

Load Computed
Factor
Peak
(%)
(MW)
73.6
73.0
72.4
71.8
71.2
70.5
69.9
69.3
68.7
68.1
67.5
66.8
66.2
65.6
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0

2349
2676
2923
3222
11.1%
3540
3892
4266
4685
5150
9.8%
5764
6440
7195
8045
9006
11.8%
10078
11170
12392
13731
15212
11.1%
16855
18632
20560
22686
25059
10.5%
10.8%

Table 3-16

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-Low

Year

Sale
(GWh)

PEPCO
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
(MW)

Sale
(GWh)

KESC
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
(MW)

Sale
(GWh)

2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10

64854
71393
78356
86525
10.1%
95010
104152
113675
124005
135087
9.3%
146643
158762
171603
185303
199916
8.2%
215239
231342
248396
266039
284441
7.3%
303662
323112
342930
363430
384844
6.2%

86388
93914
101803
111050
8.7%
120475
130500
140761
151771
163439
8.0%
175410
187779
200718
216741
233834
7.4%
251757
270592
290540
311175
332700
7.3%
355181
377932
401111
425090
450137
6.2%

15138
16468
17824
19266
8.4%
20728
22235
23805
25479
27437
7.3%
29447
31523
33696
36386
39255
7.4%
42264
45426
48774
52239
55852
7.3%
59626
63445
67337
71362
75567
6.2%

9643
11193
12360
13739
12.5%
15186
16767
18420
20225
22175
10.0%
24226
26377
28660
31099
33705
8.7%
36444
39319
42361
45508
48780
7.7%
52184
55639
59130
62722
66454
6.4%

15151
17077
18436
20044
9.8%
21681
23436
25217
27132
29160
7.8%
31857
34686
37688
40896
44323
8.7%
47925
51705
55705
59844
64146
7.7%
68622
73166
77757
82480
87387
6.4%

2349
2670
2907
3188
10.7%
3478
3792
4116
4468
4845
8.7%
5342
5869
6436
7049
7711
9.7%
8417
9081
9783
10510
11266
7.9%
12052
12850
13656
14485
15347
6.4%

74497
82586
90716
100264
10.4%
110197
120919
132095
144230
157261
9.4%
170869
185139
200263
216402
233621
8.2%
251684
270661
290757
311548
333221
7.4%
355846
378751
402059
426152
451298
6.3%

G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
G.R. (2025-30)

PEPCO + KESC
Generation
Peak
(GWh)
(MW)
101539
110990
120239
131094
8.9%
142156
153935
165979
178903
192599
8.0%
207267
222465
238406
257638
278156
7.6%
299682
322297
346244
371020
396846
7.4%
423804
451098
478868
507570
537524
6.3%

17328
18964
20542
22249
8.7%
23985
25790
27668
29675
31989
7.5%
34472
37052
39766
43039
46539
7.8%
50219
54010
58025
62178
66507
7.4%
71026
75601
80256
85066
90087
6.3%

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
8.0%
7.4%
7.2%
8.8%
7.9%
8.5%
8.1%
7.5%
7.4%
Note
The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009.
Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Sale
(GWh)

Self Generation
Generation
Peak
(GWh)
MW

Sale
(GWh)

Country
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
MW

8966
9885
10899
12047
10.3%
13287
14624
15955
17390
18917
9.4%
20537
22132
23807
25560
27421
7.7%
29363
31323
33387
35526
37661
6.6%
39858
42153
44295
46517
48819
5.3%

9538
10515
11595
12816
10.3%
14136
15558
16973
18500
20124
9.4%
21847
23545
25326
27192
29171
7.7%
31238
33322
35518
37793
40065
6.6%
42402
44844
47122
49486
51935
5.3%

1556
1715
1891
2090
10.3%
2305
2537
2768
3017
3282
9.4%
3563
3840
4130
4434
4757
7.7%
5094
5434
5792
6163
6534
6.6%
6915
7313
7685
8070
8470
5.3%

83463
92471
101615
112311
10.4%
123484
135543
148050
161621
176178
9.4%
191405
207271
224070
241963
261042
8.2%
281047
301983
324144
347073
370882
7.3%
395703
420904
446354
472669
500117
6.2%

111078
121506
131834
143910
9.0%
156292
169493
182952
197403
212724
8.1%
229115
246010
263732
284830
307328
7.6%
330920
355618
381763
408813
436911
7.3%
466206
495941
525990
557056
589460
6.2%

18883
20679
22433
24339
8.8%
26291
28327
30436
32691
35271
7.7%
38035
40892
43896
47473
51296
7.8%
55314
59444
63817
68341
73041
7.3%
77941
82914
87940
93137
98557
6.2%

7.6%

7.6%

7.6%

8.1%

7.5%

7.4%

Table 3-17

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-Normal

Year

Sale
(GWh)

PEPCO
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
(MW)

Sale
(GWh)

KESC
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
(MW)

Sale
(GWh)

2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10

64854
71462
78546
86913
10.3%
95680
105209
115205
126147
137998
9.7%
150505
163701
177829
193050
209477
8.7%
226917
245394
265216
286022
307896
8.0%
331027
354942
379293
404892
432030
7.0%

86388
94004
102051
111548
8.9%
121324
131824
142655
154394
166962
8.4%
180030
193621
208000
225803
245017
8.0%
265416
287027
310213
334549
360134
8.0%
387189
415162
443644
473586
505328
7.0%

15138
16484
17868
19352
8.5%
20874
22460
24126
25919
28029
7.7%
30223
32504
34918
37907
41132
8.0%
44557
48185
52077
56163
60458
8.0%
65000
69696
74477
79503
84832
7.0%

9643
11207
12399
13818
12.7%
15324
16983
18733
20664
22771
10.5%
25017
27388
29934
32685
35662
9.4%
38835
42195
45804
49599
53581
8.5%
57786
62154
66574
71209
76113
7.3%

15151
17098
18494
20159
10.0%
21877
23738
25646
27720
29944
8.2%
32897
36016
39364
42982
46896
9.4%
51069
55487
60232
65224
70460
8.5%
75989
81734
87545
93641
100089
7.3%

2349
2673
2916
3206
10.9%
3509
3841
4186
4565
4976
9.2%
5516
6094
6722
7408
8159
10.4%
8969
9745
10578
11455
12374
8.7%
13345
14354
15375
16446
17578
7.3%

74497
82669
90945
100731
10.6%
111003
122192
133938
146811
160769
9.8%
175522
191090
207763
225735
245139
8.8%
265752
287589
311020
335622
361477
8.1%
388813
417097
445866
476101
508143
7.0%

G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
G.R. (2025-30)

PEPCO + KESC
Generation
Peak
(GWh)
(MW)
101539
111102
120545
131707
9.1%
143201
155562
168301
182114
196906
8.4%
212927
229637
247364
268785
291913
8.2%
316485
342514
370445
399773
430594
8.1%
463178
496896
531189
567227
605418
7.1%

17328
18983
20594
22353
8.9%
24161
26062
28054
30207
32704
7.9%
35413
38247
41261
44903
48843
8.4%
53039
57403
62085
67002
72169
8.1%
77632
83285
89034
95076
101478
7.1%

Sale
(GWh)
8966
9916
10986
12224
10.9%
13594
15108
16655
18371
20249
10.6%
22304
24393
26656
29107
31798
9.4%
34709
37754
41086
44672
48397
8.8%
52383
56723
60939
65494
70417
7.8%

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
8.6%
8.0%
7.8%
9.4%
8.6%
9.1%
8.7%
8.1%
8.0%
9.4%
Note
The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009.
Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Self Generation
Generation
Peak
(GWh)
MW

Sale
(GWh)

Country
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
MW

9538
10549
11688
13005
10.9%
14462
16072
17718
19543
21542
10.6%
23728
25950
28358
30964
33827
9.4%
36924
40164
43708
47524
51486
8.8%
55727
60343
64829
69675
74912
7.8%

1556
1720
1906
2121
10.9%
2358
2621
2889
3187
3513
10.6%
3870
4232
4625
5050
5516
9.4%
6022
6550
7128
7750
8396
8.8%
9088
9841
10572
11363
12217
7.8%

83463
92585
101932
112955
10.6%
124597
137300
150593
165182
181018
9.9%
197826
215483
234420
254842
276937
8.9%
300461
325343
352106
380294
409874
8.2%
441196
473820
506805
541595
578560
7.1%

111078
121651
132232
144711
9.2%
157663
171634
186019
201657
218448
8.6%
236655
255587
275722
299749
325740
8.3%
353409
382678
414154
447297
482080
8.2%
518906
557240
596018
636902
680330
7.1%

18883
20703
22500
24474
9.0%
26520
28683
30944
33394
36217
8.2%
39283
42479
45886
49952
54359
8.5%
59060
63952
69213
74752
80566
8.2%
86720
93126
99607
106438
113695
7.1%

9.4%

9.4%

8.8%

8.2%

8.1%

Table 3-18

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-High

Year

Sale
(GWh)

PEPCO
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
(MW)

Sale
(GWh)

KESC
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
(MW)

Sale
(GWh)

2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10

64854
71510
78686
87224
10.4%
96257
106171
116712
128408
141283
10.1%
155090
169976
186250
204206
224070
9.7%
245730
269419
295624
324010
355033
9.6%
389081
425431
464412
506983
554044
9.3%

86388
94067
102233
111947
9.0%
122057
133029
144521
157161
170936
8.8%
185515
201042
217850
238851
262086
8.9%
287421
315129
345780
378981
415268
9.6%
455092
497610
543205
592999
648043
9.3%

15138
16495
17899
19422
8.7%
21000
22666
24441
26383
28696
8.1%
31143
33750
36572
40097
43998
8.9%
48251
52902
58048
63622
69713
9.6%
76399
83536
91191
99550
108791
9.3%

9643
11218
12430
13888
12.9%
15456
17208
19090
21207
23568
11.2%
26142
28943
32040
35496
39364
10.8%
43638
48366
53656
59457
65868
10.8%
72982
80678
89026
98228
108504
10.5%

15151
17114
18540
20262
10.2%
22066
24052
26135
28448
30993
8.9%
34377
38061
42133
46678
51765
10.8%
57385
63602
70558
78186
86618
10.8%
95972
106093
117071
129172
142684
10.5%

2349
2676
2923
3222
11.1%
3540
3892
4266
4685
5150
9.8%
5764
6440
7195
8045
9006
11.8%
10078
11170
12392
13731
15212
11.1%
16855
18632
20560
22686
25059
10.5%

74497
82728
91117
101113
10.7%
111713
123379
135802
149615
164851
10.3%
181232
198920
218290
239702
263434
9.8%
289369
317785
349279
383466
420901
9.8%
462062
506109
553438
605212
662548
9.5%

G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
G.R. (2025-30)

PEPCO + KESC
Generation
Peak
(GWh)
(MW)
101539
111181
120773
132209
9.2%
144122
157081
170656
185609
201929
8.8%
219892
239103
259982
285529
313851
9.2%
344806
378730
416337
457168
501886
9.8%
551064
603703
660275
722170
790728
9.5%

17328
18996
20633
22438
9.0%
24316
26316
28446
30786
33538
8.4%
36572
39824
43368
47704
52521
9.4%
57798
63489
69799
76649
84153
9.9%
92405
101239
110734
121123
132631
9.5%

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
9.8%
9.2%
9.0%
11.1%
10.2%
10.8%
10.0%
9.3%
9.3%
Note
The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009.
Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Sale
(GWh)

Self Generation
Generation
Peak
(GWh)
MW

Sale
(GWh)

Country
Generation
(GWh)

Peak
MW

8966
9919
10995
12242
10.9%
13625
15157
16726
18472
20388
10.7%
22489
24632
26960
29487
32272
9.6%
35294
38466
41947
45708
49626
9.0%
53835
58432
62915
67774
73044
8.0%

9538
10552
11697
13024
10.9%
14495
16124
17794
19651
21689
10.7%
23925
26204
28680
31369
34332
9.6%
37547
40921
44625
48625
52794
9.0%
57271
62161
66930
72100
77707
8.0%

1556
1721
1908
2124
10.9%
2364
2630
2902
3205
3537
10.7%
3902
4273
4677
5116
5599
9.6%
6123
6673
7277
7930
8610
9.0%
9340
10137
10915
11758
12672
8.0%

83463
92647
102112
113355
10.7%
125338
138536
152529
168087
185239
10.3%
203722
223551
245250
269189
295706
9.8%
324663
356251
391227
429174
470527
9.7%
515897
564541
616353
672986
735592
9.3%

111078
121734
132470
145233
9.3%
158617
173206
188450
205260
223618
9.0%
243817
265307
288663
316898
348182
9.3%
382353
419652
460962
505793
554680
9.8%
608335
665864
727206
794270
868434
9.4%

18883
20717
22541
24562
9.2%
26680
28945
31348
33990
37075
8.6%
40473
44098
48045
52820
58120
9.4%
63922
70163
77076
84579
92762
9.8%
101745
111376
121649
132881
145304
9.4%

9.5%

9.5%

9.5%

9.9%

9.4%

9.3%

Table 3-19

Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country including DSM
Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
G.R. (2007-10)

2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
G.R. (2010-15)

2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
G.R. (2015-20)

2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
G.R. (2020-25)

2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
G.R. (2025-30)

Sale
(GWh)
64854
71462
78546
86913
10.3%
95680
105209
115205
126147
137998
9.7%
150505
163701
177829
193050
209477
8.7%
226917
245394
265216
286022
307896
8.0%
331027
354942
379293
404892
432030
7.0%

PEPCO
Generation
(GWh)
86388
94004
102051
111548
8.9%
121324
131824
142655
154394
166962
8.4%
180030
193621
208000
225803
245017
8.0%
265416
287027
310213
334549
360134
8.0%
387189
415162
443644
473586
505328
7.0%

Peak
(MW)
15138
16484
17388
18455
6.8%
19507
21195
22936
24824
26844
7.8%
28946
31131
33443
36305
39394
8.0%
42674
46149
49877
53789
57903
8.0%
62253
66751
71330
76144
81248
7.0%

Sale
(GWh)
9643
11207
12399
13818
12.7%
15324
16983
18733
20664
22771
10.5%
25017
27388
29934
32685
35662
9.4%
38835
42195
45804
49599
53581
8.5%
57786
62154
66574
71209
76113
7.3%

KESC
Generation
(GWh)
15151
17098
18494
20159
10.0%
21877
23738
25646
27720
29944
8.2%
32897
36016
39364
42982
46896
9.4%
51069
55487
60232
65224
70460
8.5%
75989
81734
87545
93641
100089
7.3%

Peak
(MW)
2349
2673
2916
3206
10.9%
3509
3841
4186
4565
4976
9.2%
5516
6094
6722
7408
8159
10.4%
8969
9745
10578
11455
12374
8.7%
13345
14354
15375
16446
17578
7.3%

PEPCO + KESC
Sale
Generation
(GWh)
(GWh)
74497
101539
82669
111102
90945
120545
100731
131707
10.6%
9.1%
111003
143201
122192
155562
133938
168301
146811
182114
160769
196906
9.8%
8.4%
175522
212927
191090
229637
207763
247364
225735
268785
245139
291913
8.8%
8.2%
265752
316485
287589
342514
311020
370445
335622
399773
361477
430594
8.1%
8.1%
388813
463178
417097
496896
445866
531189
476101
567227
508143
605418
7.0%
7.1%

Peak
(MW)
17328
18983
20119
21464
7.4%
22807
24808
26876
29121
31531
8.0%
34148
36886
39799
43315
47120
8.4%
51173
55385
59905
64651
69638
8.1%
74911
80367
85916
91747
97927
7.1%

AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030)
8.6%
8.0%
7.6%
9.4%
8.6%
9.1%
8.7%
8.1%
7.8%
Note
The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009.
Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.

Sale
(GWh)
8966
9916
10986
12224
10.9%
13594
15108
16655
18371
20249
10.6%
22304
24393
26656
29107
31798
9.4%
34709
37754
41086
44672
48397
8.8%
52383
56723
60939
65494
70417
7.8%

Self Generation
Generation
(GWh)
9538
10549
11688
13005
10.9%
14462
16072
17718
19543
21542
10.6%
23728
25950
28358
30964
33827
9.4%
36924
40164
43708
47524
51486
8.8%
55727
60343
64829
69675
74912
7.8%

Peak
MW
1556
1720
1906
2121
10.9%
2358
2621
2889
3187
3513
10.6%
3870
4232
4625
5050
5516
9.4%
6022
6550
7128
7750
8396
8.8%
9088
9841
10572
11363
12217
7.8%

Sale
(GWh)
83463
92585
101932
112955
10.6%
124597
137300
150593
165182
181018
9.9%
197826
215483
234420
254842
276937
8.9%
300461
325343
352106
380294
409874
8.2%
441196
473820
506805
541595
578560
7.1%

Country
Generation
(GWh)
111078
121651
132232
144711
9.2%
157663
171634
186019
201657
218448
8.6%
236655
255587
275722
299749
325740
8.3%
353409
382678
414154
447297
482080
8.2%
518906
557240
596018
636902
680330
7.1%

Peak
MW
18883
20703
22025
23584
7.7%
25165
27429
29765
32309
35044
8.2%
38017
41118
44424
48365
52637
8.5%
57195
61935
67033
72401
78034
8.2%
83999
90208
96488
103110
110143
7.1%

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

8.8%

8.2%

8.0%

FIG 3-1

Category Wise Composition Of Loads (GWh Sales)

others
5%

Agriculture
9%

Domestic
41%

Industrial
37%

Commercial
8%

Year - 2010

Agriculture
7%

others
6%

Domestic
35%

Industrial
40%

Commercial
12%

Year - 2020
others
6%
Agriculture
6%

Domestic
33%

Industrial
42%

Year - 2030
Note

Commercial
13%

Industrial energy includes self generation.