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WORLD WORLD

THE CANBERRA TIMES Tuesday, November 12, 2013 www.canberratimes.com.au

Massive destruction hinders

More big storms on their way
By Peter Hannam

How the monster formed

Air flows clockwise out from centre Fastest winds spiral upwards inside thick clouds Bands of thunderstorms spin around the centre Storm turns anticlockwise in the Northern Hemisphere (clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere)

$10m aid praised as a good first instalment

By David Wroe

How to help
UNICEF www.unicef.org.au 1300 884 233 AUSTRALIAN RED CROSS www.redcross.org.au 1800 811 700 OXFAM www.oxfam.org 1800 088 110 WORLD VISION www.worldvision.com.au 13 32 40 SAVE THE CHILDREN www.savethechildren.org

Extreme storm events such as super typhoon Haiyan, which wreaked havoc in the Philippines, are more likely as the build-up of greenhouse gases warms the planet, scientists say. Wind speeds from typhoon Haiyan were estimated to have reached 314km/h when the monster storm made landfall on the Philippine island of Samar on Friday, eclipsing the previous record set by hurricane Camille in 1969, according to US meteorologist Jeff Masters. The death toll from the city of Tacloban alone may exceed 10,000 people, local authorities say. Professor Will Steffen, a researcher at the ANU and member of the Climate Council, said a hotter, moister climate is already affecting storms such as Haiyan. Once [cyclones] do form, they get most of their energy from the surface waters of the ocean, Professor Steffen said. We know sea-surface temperatures are warming pretty much around the planet, so thats a pretty direct influence of climate change on the nature of the storm. Data compiled from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows sea temperatures were about 0.5 to 1 degree above normal in the waters to the east of the Philippines as Haiyan began forming. The waters cooled in the storms wake, an indication of how the storm sucked up energy. Typhoons or tropical cyclones as they are known in Australia require sea-surface temperatures of at least 26.5 degrees to form, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The lowpressure systems can persist over lower sea-surface temperatures once they get going. Kevin Walsh, an associate professor at the University of Melbourne and an expert in tropical meteoro-

For a typhoon to form, the water must be at least 26.5C at a depth of 46m

Warm, moist air rises

Warm air spirals inward, speeding up at centre

Calm air sinks at centre

temperatures has already 1 Sea-surface 2 Atmosphere were about 1 degree warmed 0.9 degrees since above average in waters east of the Philippines where Haiyan formed. 1750. Global emissions trajectory has us on a course for a rise of about 3.5 degrees.

change will warm the sea temperature difference 3 Climate 4 The surface but it will also have an impact on between sea surface and the troposphere. While the upper level warms, the tops of the storms are expected to go higher, reaching cooler air. top of the storm will be greater, increasing the probability of more intense storms.

DEVASTATION: Typhoon Haiyans havoc included a destroyed highway, left, and a stripped coconut plantation, right. Photos: Reuters

logy, said warmer sea-surface temperatures are only one factor in determining cyclones ferocity. The key is the temperature difference between those seas and the tops o f t h e s t o r m s, h i g h i n t h e troposphere. That temperature differential in cyclones is expected to widen as storm heights push higher in the atmosphere, Dr Walsh said. Research indicates that while there

may be fewer tropical cyclones in the future, their intensity will increase. A peer-reviewed report in Nature Geoscience published in 2010 by a team including Australias Dr John McBride identified a likely shift towards fewer but stronger storms. Existing modelling studies ... consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 to 34 per cent, the report said. Balanced against this,

higher-resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20 per cent in the precipitation rate within 100 kilometres of the storm centre. Since the atmosphere can hold 4 to 8 per cent more water per degree of warming, scientists say rain events have the potential to get more extreme, including cyclones.

The risk for intense rainfall and flooding when they hit land and drop their water as rainfall increases with global warming, Professor Steffen said. Theyre packing more punch in terms of the wind and also the water vapour or rain that they are carrying. And since climate change is already raising sea levels, the risk of severe inundation from storms is also increasing, Professor Steffen said.

Aid groups have welcomed a $10 million aid pledge by the Australian government to help the Philippines but warn much more will be needed for a disaster of the scale of typhoon Haiyan. Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop announced the funding on Monday. She described the destruction in the country as a disaster on a massive scale as she announced the aid package, joining the US, Britain and New Zealand among international donors. The loss of life, the damage to property and homes has been absolutely devastating, she said. About $4 million will go to the United Nations and another $3 million through non-government organisations. A further $1 million will go towards the deployment of an Australian medical team, which will fly out of Darwin on Wednesday on an Australian Defence Force Boeing C-17. Another $1 million will be used for food and other essential items, such as tarpaulins, water containers and mosquito nets, and $1 million will go to the Red Cross. World Vision chief executive Tim Costello, who flew from Africa on Monday night to the Philippines to help with the relief effort, welcomed the funding but said more would probably be needed. As a first instalment, thats terrific, he said. I think this is probably going to demand more money. It is a crisis growing by the day. Oxfam Australia CEO Helen Szoke agreed the funding committed by the Abbott government should be followed up with a larger contribution. For a disaster of this scale, $10 million is not going to go very far, she said. Ms Bishop said the amount pledged by the government was on a scale with other countries. Britain has pledged 6 million ($10.2 million) and the European Union A3 million ($4.3 million). After the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami,

estimated to have killed more than 230,000 people, including at least 130,000 in Indonesia, the Howard government pledged $1 billion in aid to Indonesia. Ms Bishop said the Philippines had not asked for military help from Australia, though all options would be considered if such a request were made. The US has sent marines from Okinawa, Japan. The Department of Foreign Affairs says Australians concerned for the welfare of family and friends in the region should first attempt to contact them directly. If that is unsuccessful, they should call DFATs 24-hour consular emergency centre on 1300 555 135 or +612 6261 3305. Australians are being urged to continue with their plans to holiday in the Philippines, despite the typhoon and earlier earthquake that hit the region. On Monday, the Australian government advised visitors to exercise a high degree of caution when visiting the Philippines. But Consuelo Jones, from the Philippine Department of Tourism (Australia/New Zealand), urged Australians to support her country in its time of need. I strongly feel that any Australian with plans of going to the Philippines should go, she said. All flights have been restored throughout the country, except to Leyte.

Local Filipinos rally in support of victims

By Fleta Page

Canberra man survives again

By Devon McGillicuddy

As soon as typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines, Filipinos in Australia started fund-raising for the affected communities. There are an estimated 8000 Filipinos and Australians of Filipino descent in Canberra, a relatively small proportion of the 225,000 nationally, but they have banded together following the destructive storm. This is one very good thing about Filipinos here in Australia and elsewhere in the world ... even before the embassy or the government could make an appeal, they on their own already started raising funds and collecting goods to [provide] relief and assistance to those victims of the typhoon, Philippines ambassador

ENVOY: Belen Anota is keeping close tabs.

Belen Anota said. In Canberra there are many small fund-raising events ... [on Sunday] there was one, spearheaded by people who come from Iloilo, because it

was one of the hardest-hit areas [although] it was only typhoon signal number 3 in that area. While the full extent of the damage from the typhoon, which was classed as a category 5 storm, will not be known until later in the week, Ms Anota is expecting the toll to increase significantly from the early initial reports. The situation is very bad. The typhoon has been very destructive and devastating for the Philippines, she said. Today the report from our disaster risk management [says] over 200 are reported dead, over 100 are missing and the damage to property, infrastructure and agriculture and farms runs into the trillions of pesos [billions of dollars] and we know of course those are initial reports. Haiyan is the 24th typhoon to hit the

disaster-prone archipelago this season, and just last month an earthquake measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale also devastated the island of Bohol. Our weather bureau says we are expecting three more typhoons, so hopefully not as destructive, Ms Anota said. Were praying very hard, our people continue to be resilient, they have been resilient through the years. Our government will persevere assisting, working at the soonest possible time to restore power, restore water, health services. Ms Anota asked that people keep praying the Philippines is spared from further strong typhoons. If they want to assist, there are many avenues either their Filipino community organisation, the Australian Red Cross or Caritas Australia ... there are many options.

A Canberran who survived the bushfires in 2003 has now survived the worst natural disaster to hit the Philippines. Peter Harris, from Chapman, who moved to Cebu only four weeks ago, said he feared for his familys lives as typhoon Haiyan ripped through the island. Everything went past the window, I was so worried about the glass breaking, Mr Harris said. North Cebu is west of the hardest-hit region, Tacloban, and was in the direct path. Oxfam says 98 per cent of houses in north Cebu have been destroyed. Drinking water, food and medicine are desperately needed. This is not the first time Mr Harriss house has survived a disaster. During the Canberra fires 10 years ago his house was saved while 17 of 22 homes on his

street were lost. He said a generator and fridge he bought after the fires helped him survive this latest disaster. We had to stay inside for about 12 hours. Theres been no power, it just came back on last night. Weve had power because Ive got that generator, he said. Im a type one diabetic. If I didnt have my fridge I wouldnt have survived. The 66-year-old said after the typhoon hit the region the Malaysian air force dropped food and tents into Tacloban but he did not know what was happening now. Its really bad over there. Tens of thousands of people havent eaten for days, he said. They can get there, they can get a boat over there. According to Oxfam it was difficult to get to north Cebu because of the amount of debris over the roads, and while the immediate needs of the area were a concern the long-term affects were also a cause for worry.

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Maxwell Smarts cone of silence is now a tent

By Michael Schmidt in Washington

When President Barack Obama travels abroad, his staff packs briefing books, gifts for foreign leaders and something more closely associated with camping than diplomacy: a tent. Even when Mr Obama travels to allied nations, aides quickly set up the security tent which has opaque sides and noisemaking devices inside in a room near his hotel suite. When the President needs to read a classified document or have a sensitive conversation, he ducks into the tent to shield himself from secret video cameras and listening devices. US security officials demand their bosses not just the President but members of Congress, diplomats, policymakers and military officers take such precautions when travelling abroad because it is widely acknowledged their hosts often have no qualms about snooping on their guests. The US has come under withering criticism in recent weeks about revelations that the National Security Agency listened in on allied leaders such as Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. A panel created by Mr Obama in August to review that practice, among other things, is scheduled to submit a preliminary report this week and a final report next month. But US officials assume and can cite evidence they receive the same treatment when they travel abroad, even from European Union allies. No matter

FOILING THE EAVESDROPPERS: US President Barack Obama uses a security tent in Rio de Janeiro in 2011 to keep his conversations private. Photo: The White House

where you are, we are a target these days, said James Woolsey jnr, director of central intelligence during the Clinton administration. No matter where we go, countries like China, Russia and much of the Arab world have assets and are trying to spy on us, so you have to think about that and take as many precautions as possible. On a trip to Latin America in 2011, for example, a White House photo showed Mr Obama talking from a security tent in a Rio de Janeiro hotel suite with Hillary

Clinton, then the secretary of state, and Robert Gates, defence secretary at the time, about the air war against Libya that had been launched the previous day. Another photo, taken three days later in San Salvador, showed him conferring from the tent with advisers about the attack. The State Department, the CIA and the National Security Council declined to provide details on measures to protect officials overseas. But former officials said measures ranged from instructing

officials travelling overseas to assume every utterance and move is under surveillance and requiring them to scrub their mobile phones for listening devices after they have visited government offices, to equipping the Presidents limousine, which always travels with him, to keep private conversations private. Mr Obama carries a specially encrypted BlackBerry. Countermeasures are taken on US soil as well. When cabinet secretaries and top national security officials take up their new jobs, the government retrofits their homes with special secure rooms for top-secret conversations and computer use. During the Cold War, listening devices were found embedded in the walls and light fixtures of the hotels where US diplomats stayed. These days, an official said, US analysts worry more about eavesdropping radio signals beamed towards hotel rooms in the hope of picking up officials conversations. We took it for granted that in some of these hotels, no matter the state, devices were built in there, the official said. Many of the measures taken for overseas travel are only for the most senior officials because they are costly and cumbersome. Instead of the tent, less senior officials can end up using smaller structures that look like telephone booths. But all officials travelling in this age of high surveillance are given one basic marching order: use common sense. New York Times

Giant British database joins fight against cancer

London

www.canberratimes.com.au/competitions
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Weather-forecasting science is being used to predict the most effective ways to fight cancer in a ground-breaking development. Techniques borrowed from Britains Met Office have been put into a unique artificial intelligence database containing 1.7 billion experimental results. Just as weathermen make their predic-

tions using powerful computers to crunch information from myriad sources, scientists tapping into the CanSAR database will be guided to the most effective drugs and treatments. CanSAR, developed in Britain, brings together vast quantities of data from patients, clinical trials and genetic, biochemical and pharmacological research. It condenses more data than would be generated by operating the Hubble

Space Telescope for a million years. Dr Bissan Al-Lazikani, a leading member of the CanSAR team from the Institute of Cancer Research, in London, said: CanSAR uses artificial intelligence, like that used in weather forecasts, to predict which potential drugs are likely to work in which circumstances. The database is capable of extraordinarily complex virtual experiments drawing on information from patients,

genetics, chemistry and other laboratory research. It can spot opportunities for future cancer treatments that no human eye could be expected to see. CanSAR is being made freely available to scientists around the world. Using the database, research that had previously taken months will now take minutes. Dr Al-Lazikani added: It is the largest database of cancer disease information in the world. PA