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MARKET RESEARCH

Jan 06th Jan 10th


SPOTLIGHT
Portuguese Retail Sales Growth Rate (MoM)

PSI-20 keeps its positive trend


The Portuguese main index kept surprising this week, rising 4.79% and breaking the 7000 points barrier. Sonae Indstria stocks soared 24.8% this week, after it was revealed that it is considering the sale of two units in France. On the fixed income front, the Portuguese government sold 3.25 billion euros in 5-year bonds, last Thursday, at a rate of 4.657%, down from the 4.891% of the last issuance. In the economic front, Portuguese consumer confidence improved to -40.4 last month, while retail sales grew 3.1% (MoM), beating expectations of a 0.88% growth. Also, the countrys unemployment rate declined to 15.5% in the beginning of November, for the ninth consecutive month. Lastly, Portuguese exports grew 7.2% (YoY) in November.

FEP Finance Club; tradingeconomics.com

INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Jan 06
PSI 20 STOXX 50 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG
6.790,95 3.069,16 6.730,73 9.428,00 4.227,54 15.908,88 22.684,15

Jan 07
6.957,74 3.110,96 6.755,45 9.506,20 4.262,68 15.814,37 22.712,78

Jan 08
7.055,27 3.110,66 6.721,78 9.497,84 4.260,96 16.121,45 22.996,59

Jan 09
7.076,92 3.090,26 6.691,34 9.421,61 4.225,14 15.880,33 22.787,33

Jan 10
7.093,40 3.104,15 6.739,94 9.473,24 4.250,60 15.912,06 22.846,25

Wkly Chg
4,79% 0,97% 0,14% 0,40% 0,07% 0,02% 0,13%

European Markets edge slightly higher


The main European Markets closed slightly higher this week, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index reaching the highest level since May 2008. In the Euro Zone, consumer price inflation increased by 0.8% last month, down from 0.9% in November. Moreover, retail sales also jumped by 1.4% in November, easily surpassing expectations of a 0.2% gain. On the other hand, despite dropping 0.3% (YoY), the GDP beat expectations of a 0.4% fall. In Europes most relevant economy, Germany, services PMI fell to 53.5 in November, while industrial production climbed by a seasonally adjusted 1.9%. The countrys unemployment fell for the first time in five months in December, to 6.9%. In the U.K., services PMI fell to 58.8, while industrial production remained constant, falling short of market expectations of a 0.4% improvement.

FEP Finance Club; Google Finance

CURRENCIES
Jan 06
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/YUAN AUD/JPY
1,363 1,232 0,830 142,060 8,252 93,470

Jan 07
1,362 1,238 0,830 142,590 8,240 93,380

Jan 08
1,357 1,237 0,825 142,280 8,216 93,190

Jan 09
1,361 1,234 0,826 142,650 8,236 93,250

Jan 10
1,367 1,234 0,829 142,410 8,269 93,700

Wkly Chg
0,59% 0,28% 0,22% -0,04% 0,56% -0,11%

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

v
Euribor 1M Euribor 3M Euribor 6M Euribor 12M Eonia

REFERENCE RATES
Jan 07 0,202% 0,280% 0,381% 0,550% 0,099% Jan 08 0,203% 0,281% 0,383% 0,552% 0,137% Jan 09 0,205% 0,282% 0,388% 0,557% 0,156% Jan 10 0,208% 0,282% 0,390% 0,557% 0,154%

Jan 06 0,204% 0,280% 0,380% 0,550% -

China lifts ban on foreign consoles


Asian markets hold almost still during the last five trading sessions, with the Chinese one performing slightly better, after China reported a solid trade surplus for December. Moreover, the countrys consumer inflation slowed by more than expected to a seven-month low of 2.5%. It is also worth noting that China lifted the ban on foreign consoles, a measure that could benefit hardware manufacturers such as Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony, which can now enter a $10 billion market. Lastly, Australian retail sales rose for the seventh month in a row, indicating consumers are responding to eight interest-rate cuts aimed at spurring the economy.

FEP Finance Club; Banco de Portugal; BPI

BOND YIELDS
Jan 06 Portugal 6M Portugal 5Y Portugal 10Y Spain 10Y France 10Y Italy 10Y Germany 10Y UK 10Y 1,183%
4,314% 5,565% 3,905% 2,395% 3,929% 1,908% 2,972%

Jan 07 1,039%
4,108% 5,397% 3,816% 2,367% 3,878% 1,889% 2,954%

Jan 08
0,905% 4,101% 5,399% 3,797% 2,369% 3,888% 1,905% 2,983%

Jan 09 0,939%
4,110% 5,412% 3,773% 2,421% 3,883% 1,910% 2,975%

Jan 10 0,919%
4,073% 5,355% 3,813% 2,373% 3,914% 1,846% 2,880%

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

Financial Markets | fepfinanceclub@gmail.com|www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

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SPOTLIGHT
U.S. Unemployment Rate

U.S. unemployment rate disappoints


U.S. stocks were quite inconstant this week, oscillating between gains and losses, with the S&P 500 closing in green territory at the end of the week. On the economic front, the U.S. trade deficit fell to a fouryear low in November, after exports hit another record and oil imports continued to decline, boosting estimates for last quarter's economic growth. Moreover, the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%, less than expected by economists, primarily due to a continued shrinkage in the labor force, with U.S. nonfarm payrolls rising to a seasonally adjusted 74K, from 241K in the preceding month. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits also fell last week, adding evidence to the belief that economy is gaining steam. On the other hand, U.S. service sector activity slowed unexpectedly in December, with the non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index declining to 53.0 in December.

FEP Finance Club; investing.com

INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Jan 06
S&P 500 DJIA NQ 100 S&P Lac 40
1.826,77 16.425,10 3.526,96 3.541,50

Jan 07
1.837,88 16.530,94 3.557,85 3.544,51

Jan 08
1.837,49 16.462,74 3.567,54 3.506,26

Jan 09
1.838,13 16.444,76 3.552,58 3.465,72

Jan 10
1.842,37 16.437,05 3.565,08 3.536,63

Wkly Chg
0,60% -0,20% 0,74% -0,88%

FEP Finance Club; Google Finance

Mexican recovery remains fragile


Jan 08
104,840 6,051 0,889 1,645 0,912 1,082

CURRENCIES
Jan 06
USD/JPY USD/YUAN AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD
104,220 6,053 0,897 1,641 0,904 1,066

Jan 07
104,720 6,051 0,892 1,640 0,909 1,078

Jan 09
104,830 6,055 0,890 1,648 0,907 1,085

Jan 10
104,170 6,099 0,900 1,648 0,902 1,089

Wkly Chg
-0,65% -0,07% 0,53% 0,39% -0,31% 2,42%

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

COMMODITIES
-1,50% -5,73% 0,55% 1,95%
Crude Oil WTI Natural Gas Crude Oil Brent Corn

0,94% 0,00% -0,21% -3,05%

Gold Silver Copper Sugar

The Brazilian central bank stated that it expects inflation to slow only slightly in the next two years, despite steep interest rate hikes, leaving the door open for additional increases, before putting an end to the aggressive tightening cycle next year. In Mexico, consumer confidence rose less-than-expected last month, to 89.7 from 92.1, while consumer prices rose more than expected in early December after the nations capital raised subway fares and prices for farm products climbed. Moreover, the countrys economic activity rose less-than-expected last month. Lastly, Mexican industrial production edged up in November as construction rebounded from a slump, but manufacturing output fell at its fastest pace in more than a year and pointed to the fragility of the economic recovery.

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

Natural Gas plunges as weather improves


Gold rose after U.S. unemployment data increased expectations for the Fed to reduce its monetary stimulus at a slower pace than anticipated. Natural gas tumbled the most in eight months as meteorologists predicted a period of warmer weather after last weeks arctic chill. Sugar fell to the lowest level since July 2010 on prospects for increased production out of Brazil and Thailand.

US TREASUR Y YIELDS
Jan 06 US 3M US 1Y US 10 Y US 30 Y
0,051% 0,109% 2,958% 3,902%

Jan 07
0,048% 0,104% 2,941% 3,886%

Jan 08
0,046% 0,129% 2,991% 3,894%

Jan 09
0,041% 0,127% 2,969% 3,880%

Jan 10
0,041% 0,119% 2,860% 3,802%

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

Carlos Pereira

Catarina Borges

David Novo

Jorge Rodrigues

Pratik Ashok

Financial Markets | fepfinanceclub@gmail.com|www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

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