Timmins Chamber of Commerce Chambre de commerce de Timmins

Regional Economic Outlook

Northeast

This regional economic outlook is presented by the Timmins Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with the Credit Unions of Ontario and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce.

After overall job losses in 2012 and 2013, the region will see a modest rebound over the next two years, as it regains 3,500 jobs. Northeastern Ontarios unemployment rate will fall from a high of 7.8% in 2011 to 6.6% in 2015, as job creation outpaces growth in the regions labour force. Housing prices will grow at an average of over 4 percent over the next two years. The region lost an average of over 1,000 people a year over the last 3 years.

he Northeast Economic Region covers Greater Sudbury and the districts of Nipissing, Parry Sound, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Cochrane and Algoma and is home to over 560,000 residents. The regions key industries are mining, forestry, and utilities. Sudbury has 160,000 residents and is the regions service and distribution hub. The citys major industries are health-social services, primary resources, and retailwholesale trade. Economic growth will remain sluggish over the next two years, with the mining sector seeing spotty improvement. The labour market and consumer spending growth looks weak with government investment, spending and regional population growth stalled through 2015. Job growth returns after 2013, slowly at first, with most of the increases in government services, retail-wholesale trade and manufacturing. The labour force grows less than employment, lowering the unemployment rate to 7.6 percent in 2015 from 8.4 percent in 2013.

Industries contributing most to nearterm economic growth are primary resource industries, retail-wholesale trade, health-social services and a variety of other service industries. Construction contributes only marginally to forecast growth. Economic output from education services and public administration declines slightly in the near term. Housing sales and prices will rise modestly through 2015 and residential construction picks up in 2015. Privatesector investment in non-residential building construction, mostly stores and offices, is forecast to remain near current high levels. Public-sector investment in non-residential building construction remains stalled. Major projects in the region contribute materially to investment spending and employment. The White River Sugar Zone and Kenora-Kenbridge mines and mills are both in the permitting stage with construction completion expected in 2015. Construction continues in the near term on the St. Marys co-generation plant in Sault Ste. Marie. Construction also continues on Ontario Power Generations $2.5
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Our partners

billion investment in hydroelectric infrastructure in the Lower Mattagami River north of Timmins and the New Post Creek hydroelectric project. Major projects in the region contribute materially to investment spending and employment. Construction on Vales emission reduction project at the Copper Cliff Smelter in Sudbury continues through 2015. Construction is projected to begin in 2014 on Vales $814 million Copper Cliff underground nickel mine expansion near Sudbury.

Regional Economic Outlook

Northeast
% change % change

2011 284.3 1.6 262.2 2.8 7.8 6,631 4.9 200,457 6.1 1,604 8.6 264 27.0 165 -31.0 564.3 -0.3 -1,337

2012 276.0 -2.9 255.8 -2.4 7.3 6,515 -1.7 209,857 4.7 1,484 -7.5 266 0.9 92 -44.2 562.2 -0.4 -1,587

2013 273.0 -1.1 253.8 -0.8 7.0 6,120 -6.1 214,500 2.2 1,490 0.4 350 31.4 100 8.3 560.2 -0.4 -1,430

2014 273.5 0.2 254.8 0.4 6.9 6,270 2.5 223,500 4.2 1,550 4.0 330 -5.7 100 0.0 558.3 -0.3 -1,200

2015 275.4 0.7 257.3 1.0 6.6 6,540 4.3 232,350 4.0 1,700 9.7 350 6.1 100 0.0 556.9 -0.3 -700

Labour Force (Thousands) Employment (Thousands) Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Sales (Units) % change Housing Prices ($ Average) % change Residential Building Permit (Units) % change Private Non-Res Building Permits ($ million) % change Public Non-Res Building Permits ($ million) % change Population (Thousands) % change Net Migration

Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts.

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Summary of Ontario
Low interest rates will facilitate growth in the domestic economy and in investment spending, but the lack of growth in most regions exports constrains these areas. As a consequence, growth in consumer spending, housing sales, housing construction, and business investment will be minimal until the economic spark occurs. Restricted spending by the provincial and federal governments and tighter federal mortgage insurance criteria will slow down each regions economy. Growth and performance variations exist within regions due to economic base differences between the regions metropolitan area and the rest of the region. A couple of examples are the Kingston metropolitan area in the Kingston-Pembroke region and Thunder Bay in the Northwest region. In both cases, the metropolitan areas economy is more diversified into service industries and less dependent on sluggish or declining export-oriented industries. In general, rural economies underperform their urbanized counterparts. Learn more about Ontarios 2014 economic outlook at www.occ.ca/advocacy/economic-outlook-2014

low growth will continue in most Ontario economic regions (as defined by Statistics Canada) into 2014, with some improvement expected in 2015. External and domestic economic conditions will not be conducive to a significant growth upturn in the near term. The disparate economic performance among Ontarios major regions shows few signs of abating in the next two years. Toronto, in particular, and the Kitchener-WaterlooBarrie region will continue to set the pace and lead other regions in overall economic growth. These regions have an industry mix more oriented to growth industries and less dependent on industries facing more difficult market conditions, such as the auto manufacturing or natural resource-based regions. The external economic backdrop in which these regions operate is not particularly robust and until this improves most regions will continue to grow at a subpar pace, or possibly remain stalled. An upshift in U.S. economic growth is critical but that will not be of sufficient magnitude until after 2015. Another important and helpful factor will be a lower Canadian dollar, which is likely through 2015.

employment (000s)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

709.2 217.4 689.9 324.8 176.9 262.2 98.7 681.5 157.7 3,118.3 294.8 6,731.3

715.0 213.0 687.0 328.0 172.7 255.8 101.3 697.6 152.6 3,164.3 296.4 6,783.7

705.0 216.0 703.5 327.5 169.5 253.8 102.0 687.0 150.3 3,287.7 292.9 6,887.4

711.0 213.0 715.0 329.8 172.5 254.8 103.1 694.0 151.1 3,347.4 293.8 6,986.6

720.0 213.0 725.0 333.1 175.8 257.3 104.1 699.0 152.1 3,417.7 296.8 7,099.9

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts.

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employment, Growth rate (%)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2.3 6.9 4.1 0.0 1.9 2.8 -1.4 0.4 5.6 1.4 0.3 1.8

0.8 -2.0 -0.4 1.0 -2.4 -2.4 2.6 2.4 -3.2 1.5 0.5 0.8

-1.4 1.4 2.4 -0.2 -1.9 -0.8 0.7 -1.5 -1.5 3.9 -1.2 1.5

0.9 -1.4 1.6 0.7 1.8 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.8 0.3 1.4

1.3 0.0 1.4 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 2.1 1.0 1.6

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts.

Labour force (000s)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

763.8 234.5 743.3 355.3 193.5 284.3 106.6 727.2 166.6 3,403.1 323.7 7,301.7

770.2 229.8 735.3 356.2 186.7 276.0 108.6 745.5 159.8 3,463.2 325.8 7,357.2

759.0 230.0 755.9 356.3 184.8 273.0 109.1 735.0 159.6 3,570.6 321.2 7,455.2

765.0 229.0 767.0 358.2 187.0 273.5 110.1 742.0 160.4 3,620.6 322.3 7,531.7

771.0 228.0 776.0 360.3 190.0 275.4 110.9 746.0 161.4 3,670.9 324.9 7,616.1

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts.

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UNemployment rate (%)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

7.1 7.3 7.2 8.6 8.6 7.8 7.4 6.3 5.3 8.4 8.9 7.8

7.2 7.3 6.6 7.9 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.4 4.5 8.6 9.0 7.8

7.1 6.6 6.9 8.1 8.3 7.0 6.5 6.5 5.8 7.9 8.8 7.6

7.1 7.0 6.8 7.9 7.8 6.9 6.3 6.5 5.8 7.5 8.8 7.2

6.6 6.6 6.6 7.6 7.5 6.6 6.2 6.3 5.8 7.5 8.7 6.8

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts.

population (000s)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,430.4 461.2 1,272.0 659.1 379.3 564.3 241.1 1,277.8 301.8 6,135.2 644.0 13,366.3

1,439.8 462.0 1,286.5 663.6 380.0 562.2 241.0 1,290.2 301.6 6,235.5 643.5 13,505.9

1,449.9 463.0 1,299.3 667.0 380.4 560.2 241.2 1,301.8 301.5 6,329.8 643.4 13,627.6

1,460.1 464.0 1,313.6 670.7 381.2 558.3 241.6 1,313.5 301.4 6,423.6 642.3 13,754.5

1,470.3 464.9 1,326.8 675.2 381.9 556.9 241.9 1,326.6 301.4 6,521.1 642.4 13,883.4

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: As of July 1.

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population, Growth rate (%)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0.7 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 -0.3 0.1 1.0 0.0 1.7 -0.1 1.1

0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 -0.4 0.0 1.0 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 1.0

0.7 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.9 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.9

0.7 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.9 0.0 1.5 -0.2 0.9

0.7 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.9

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: As of July 1.

Net Migration

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

7,965 1,128 10,338 3,040 1,945 -1,337 -346 8,605 -125 65,486 -1,320 95,379

7,839 1,001 10,021 2,966 1,846 -1,587 -502 8,454 -208 65,553 -1,375 94,008

8,000 1,000 9,000 2,300 1,500 -1,430 -340 8,000 -100 59,000 -1,680 85,250

8,200 950 9,700 2,490 1,500 -1,200 -190 8,300 -50 59,000 -1,980 86,720

8,200 900 9,500 2,840 1,600 -700 -140 8,700 -30 63,400 -1,200 93,070

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: As of July 1.

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HOusing sales (units)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

21,701 7,461 19,733 9,902 8,179 6,631 2,076 17,153 3,628 97,559 7,738 201,761

20,572 7,685 19,977 9,787 8,439 6,515 2,056 17,184 3,806 93,765 7,834 197,620

21,000 7,200 20,700 9,700 8,600 6,120 2,080 16,500 3,690 95,200 8,070 198,860

20,500 7,000 20,500 9,800 8,500 6,270 2,100 16,300 3,740 96,600 8,210 199,520

20,600 6,900 20,800 10,000 8,700 6,540 2,150 16,700 3,820 102,100 8,530 206,840

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: MLS residential.

housing prices (average price $)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

295,254 234,511 289,863 230,253 286,782 200,457 164,393 319,950 217,614 470,550 166,639 365,018

314,450 240,440 301,329 237,516 292,001 209,857 182,447 327,656 219,790 504,377 172,177 384,455

331,500 247,000 316,000 244,600 299,000 214,500 193,400 336,000 226,380 530,100 177,300 403,378

338,000 249,000 320,000 251,000 302,000 223,500 199,100 339,000 236,660 554,500 180,500 418,683

343,000 250,000 322,000 256,900 308,000 232,350 204,500 341,000 244,750 577,700 183,400 434,507

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: MLS residential.

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residential building permits (units)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

5,279 2,066 7,829 2,243 1,608 1,604 596 7,998 1,148 33,815 1,188 65,374

5,416 1,928 6,325 3,121 1,737 1,484 429 8,211 1,079 38,841 1,313 69,884

4,500 1,975 7,000 2,910 1,780 1,490 520 6,800 1,100 37,500 1,540 67,115

4,700 1,800 7,200 2,940 1,750 1,550 510 7,200 1,110 37,900 1,420 68,080

4,900 1,750 7,400 3,100 1,800 1,700 490 7,800 1,120 39,500 1,600 71,160

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: MLS residential.

private non-residential building permits ($ million)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

480 159 905 378 114 264 110 797 193 3,536 348 6,487

918 173 669 341 118 266 131 1,031 241 4,324 353 7,535

910 180 700 380 80 350 120 911 220 4,500 240 7,680

650 165 750 400 90 330 140 900 260 4,700 260 7,745

675 150 775 440 100 350 140 1,000 270 4,900 270 8,070

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: MLS residential.

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Public Non-residential Building Permits ($ Million)

Ontario Summary
Economic Region Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula Kingston-Pembroke Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie London Muskoka-Kawarthas Northeast Northwest Ottawa Stratford-Bruce Peninsula Toronto Windsor-Sarnia Ontario

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

263 176 497 687 24 165 31 234 34 2,446 63 4,621

573 126 318 133 52 92 117 253 20 1,671 245 3,600

317 75 250 105 41 100 100 226 40 1,370 130 2,754

300 65 450 90 30 100 80 300 20 1,470 120 3,025

325 85 500 90 32 100 90 325 20 1,500 160 3,227

Source: CREA, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts. Note: MLS residential.

Disclaimer
Regional Economic Outlook: Northeast (the Outlook) may have forward-looking statements about the future economic growth of the Province of Ontario and its regions. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ due to a variety of factors, including regulatory or legislative developments, competition, technological change, global capital market activity and general economic conditions in Canada, North America or internationally. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the Outlooks forward-looking statements, and all factors should be considered carefully by readers and readers should not place undue reliance on the Outlooks forward-looking statements. The information contained in this Regional Economic Outlook (Content) does not constitute professional advice, and should not be relied upon as accurate, reliable, complete, timely or fit for any particular purpose without receiving appropriate and qualified professional advice. The Content is provided on an as is basis, without any representations, warranties, conditions or guarantees, whether express or implied, including any representations, warranties, conditions or guarantees as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement, all of which are hereby disclaimed by Central 1 Credit Union, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, the Timmins Chamber of Commerce, and all of the credit unions of Ontario to the fullest extent permitted by law. Central 1 Credit Union, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, the Timmins of Commerce, and all of the credit unions of Ontario and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents will not under any circumstances be liable for any loss or damage in connection with the use of the Content. Readers use of the Content is at their own risk.

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