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Air transport will continue to be an essential influence on the tourism industry. Airlines and airports will become part of everyday life for the millions who until a few years ago had never flown before.
We have selected five key issues and tried to explain what the airline industry might look like in the future. Although the reality may turn out to be different, it is worth examining each aspect along with its impact on the industry and economy worldwide.
Over 1.6 billion passengers worldwide use the world's airlines for business and leisure travel. Research indicates that by 2010, this number could exceed 2.3 billion.
RPK (billion)
Asia - Oceania North America Europe - CIS Central & South America Africa
In 2005, more than 50% of total passenger traffic was generated within North America and Europe, an additional 4% of passengers flew within or to and from Japan. Research estimates that more than 70% of the USD 400 billion of airline revenues is generated in North America, Europe and Japan. This will change dramatically in the next few years. The insurgence of China and India as new economic superpowers will capture around 15% of the expected global growth of passengers. This will be driven mainly by economic activities, but new inbound and outbound tourism flows will account for a significant slice of the traffic. What is most important is that there will be a whole new market and most of this growth will come from people who have never flown before. What has so far been mainly an industry for the western industrialised mass market will increasingly become a truly global business. Other than economic growth, factors that are likely to accelerate or slow down this process are liberalisation of domestic and international traffic, fuel prices and political stability. Whatever the pace, the process is bound to see a shift in traffic from North to South and from West to East.
recognisable trends showing clear upward market segmentation are: Increased on-board comfort levels with possible shower facilities, gym and massages. Seamless and pervasive technology, with broadband as the "bare minimum" and possibly video conferencing. Mood lighting to aid jetlag and assist sleep. On-board entertainment to move into "home from home", including the option to play games with fellow passengers and online gaming. Amenities which will focus much more on the personalised needs of travellers (based on enhanced CRM), including favourite reading materials, menu items, wines, etc. Segmentation of the physical space to allow interaction or solitude. Door-to-door rather than gate-to-gate service. In a certain way, we can argue that air travel, with all its amenities and luxury facilities, will become, at least for certain segments, part of the tourism attraction itself. Consequently, in spite of its very nature of being a commodity product, air travel will still be differentiated between value conscious and luxury seeking passengers.
profit coming from related activities such as on-board sales, car and hotel rentals, ground transportation tickets fees, etc., can be easily envisaged. In the Middle East, where the LCC revolution has just started, the same kind of LCC mania over the next three to five years that we have observed in South-East Asia and Europe in the past decade can be expected. But in the long run a shake-up of the LCC segment such as the one now looming in Europe and Asia is inevitable.
increasing number of passengers at any given time that intercontinental traffic entails. Again the future of air transport will depend on product innovation and customer preferences as much as on public policies and local community support for huge infrastructure investments (not only runway capacity, but also ground transportation, logistics platforms, retail and commercial activities, etc.).
Cost of capital/access to financial resources Investment decisions of airports to accommodate super jumbos Final customer preferences Traffic congestion and Air Traffic Control (ATC) regulation Industry specialists believe that there is enough aircraft demand for both types of airplanes. The recent boom in aircraft orders has been stretching Boeing and Airbus production plants to the limit. Boeing was booming with about 1348 orders under its belt towards the end of 2005 while Airbus displayed its order book with 1373 aircraft on order till Nov 2005 (source: ATI). It might be worth noting that the numbers in 2005 were about a quarter higher than the number of total orders set in 1989!
seats directly on line) and airports will become competitors of tour operators, competing on the overall customer spending potential (the more you spend at the airport and on-board, the less you will spend at the destination). Government policies, international cooperation and public opinion concerns will dictate the pace of the transformation looming ahead.
Contacts Libero Milone Global Leader, Aviation & Transport Services Tel: +39 02 8332 2111 Email: lmilone@deloitte.it Paul ONeill Global Aviation & Transport Services Tel: +44 20 7303 7110 Email: paoneill@deloitte.co.uk Alessandro Cassinis Global Aviation & Transport Services Tel: +39 348 015 304 238 Email: acassinis@deloitte.it
Conclusion
Air transport will continue to be an essential influence on the tourism industry. Airlines and airports will become part of everyday life for the millions who until a few years ago had never flown before. Technology (both IT and avionics) will enable easier market segmentation and channel disintermediation alike. Airlines (especially charters who now offer up to 35% of their
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