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Professor Department of Civil Engineering IIT Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India.
Email: dc@civil.iitb.ac.in URL: http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/~dc/ Lecture 29
Module 7
IIT Bombay, DC
Code Implications
UBC 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.
IIT Bombay, DC
Code Implications
AASHTO 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years ??
IIT Bombay, DC
IIT Bombay, DC
Mainland Gujarat
Ahmedabad Baroach Gandhinagar Mehsana Palanpur Patan Surat Vadodara Valsad
25 Cities studied representing the all seismic zones in Gujarat. 4 port sites are also studied for site specific ground motion estimations (Kandla port, Mundra Port, Hazira Port and Dahej Port )
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Gujarat, India
Seismotectonic setting of the region
Arabian Sea
Seismic Zones of Gujarat Region as per IS:1893 Part I (2002)
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Epicenters of earthquakes recorded from 2007 to 2011 ( modified after ISR report 2010-11)
2 1 4 ----5 2 ---
12 2 72 6 --52 12 3
571 38
684 52
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Kachchh
2008
The seismicity within the Gujarat is not same across the Gujarat. The single seismicity parameter for entire Gujarat may not represent the true seismicity within the Gujarat 7/11/2013
Seismicity in Saurashtra
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 1800 1820 1840
Catalogue completeness
1962
Catalogue Completeness is evaluated in the present study using CUVI (Tinti and Mulargia, 1985) method and Stepps method (Stepp, 1973)
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Time (Years)
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Log N
1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Gutenberg Richter recurrence relations are derived using Least Square Fit method using prepared earthquake catalogue for Mw 4.
Past seismicity
Region
a-value
G-R relation Log N=4.03 0.64 Mw Log N=4.02 0.62 Mw Log N=3.41 0.41 Mw Log N=4.13 0.51 Mw
used (Year)
Saurashtra Mainland Kachchh Gujarat 135 175 189 189 4.03 4.02 3.41 4.13
1 ln(10)(u mmin )
b-value using ML estimate 0.526 0.572
Mainland Gujarat
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0.642
Specifically for Indian Peninsula, Pervez and Ram (1997, 1999); Tripathi (2006); Jaiswal (2006) and Yadav et al. (2008)
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Surat
Cumulative Probability
Ahmedabad
7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1872
1882 1903 1919 1921 1935 1938 1950 1956 1963 1965 1966
4
6 1 4 10 7 3 6 7 7 3 5
14
10 14 21 26 20 14 14 21 13 26 27
1872.372
1882.5 1903.083 1919.391 1921.833 1935.583 1938.25 1950.5 1956.583 1963.583 1965.25 1966.417
21.75
23.2 24 22 25 21 21.6 24 23.3 24.9 24.4 24.46
72.15
71.38 70 72 68 72.4 75 71.2 70 70.3 70 68.69
5
5 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.7 6 5.3 6 5.3 5.1 5
1.289
10.128 20.583 16.308 2.442 13.75 2.667 12.25 6.083 7 1.667 1.167
Bhavnagar
Bhachau Kachchh Bhavnagar Kachchh Surat Satpura Kachchh Kachchh Pakistan Kachchh Pakistan
Pareto Distribution Rayleigh Distribution Weibull Distribution Exponential Distribution Earthquakes Earthquake (Mw >= 5) in Gujarat region
19
20 21 22 23 24 25
1970
1976 1985 1993 2001 2006 2007
2
6 4 8 1 3 11
13
4 7 24 26 7 6
1970.167
1976.5 1985.333 1993.732 2001.083 2006.25 2007.933
24.6
24.51 24.36 20.6 23.44 23.79 21.16
68.61
68.45 69.74 71.4 70.31 70.73 70.54
5.2
5.1 5 5 7.7 5.7 5
3.75
6.333 8.833 8.399 7.351 5.167 1.683
Kachchh
Allah Band Kachchh Rajula Kachchh Gedi, Junagadh
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Rayleigh Distribution
Pareto Distribution
Weibull Distribution
0.554
T
0.051
0.502
0.955
Weibull Model
Rayleigh Model
Exponential Model
f (T )
()T
Pareto Model
T f (T ) 2 Exp
T 2 2
f (T )
f (T , , x0 ) x T
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( 1)
Recurrence Estimation
Probability Distribution Model Recurrence interval (years) Predicted 7.853 16.173 3.135 7.011 Last Event occurred on Next Earthquake Expected on Study Date Considered (Nov 10th 2009) 2009.85 2009.85 2009.85 2009.85 Year Left from Present Date Next earthquake expected before Oct 2015* Feb 2024 Jan 2011 Dec 2014*
*Note: This research output published in Journal Disaster Advances in Aug. 2011 was validated by actual occurrence of earthquake of September 2011.
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13
14 15 16 17 18
Gujarat
Gujarat Gujarat Peninsular Gujarat region Gujarat
0.417 0.64 0.62 0.51 0.526 0.572 0.642 0.67 0.87 ( 0.06) 0.72 0.43 0.71 0.03 0.7 to 0.9 0.07 0.4 to 0.6
0.4 to 0.8 0.92 0.55 0.89
Rastogi et al. (2013) WCE NDMA (2010) Tripathi et al., (2005) Ashara et al., (2006) Jaiswal (2006)
Periods for study taken (1820-2008) (1872-2008) (1872-2008) (1820-2008) (1820-2009) (1872-2009) (1872-2009) (1970-2010) (*1800-2009) (1842-2002)
Raghukanth (2010)
Kolathayar et al. (2011) for Clustered catalogue Kolathayar et al. (2011) for declustered catalogue Jaiswal and Sinha (2007) Bhatia et al. (1999) Thaker et al. (2012)
(1250-2008)
(250 B.C. -2010) (250 B.C. -2010) (1842-2002) 1818-2008
All the faults are Normal faults, depth ranging 10 to 15km from ground surface.
DSHA requirements
Seismicity model: describes geographical distribution of potential active source zones (seismotectonic sources) and distribution of magnitudes in each source. (Fault Map and Seismicity parameters- maximum earthquake magnitude) Attenuation model: describes effect of an earthquake originating from a specific seismotectonic source, at any given site, as function of magnitude and source-to-site distance (Ground Motion Prediction Equations GMPEs)
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DSHA
1
Describes the potential for dangerous, earthquake-related natural phenomena i.e. Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)
The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.57g resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 on the Narmada Son Fault at a distance of 11.42 km from the site.
Sometimes called Deterministic Scenario in Magnitude, Distance pair i.e. (5.7, 11.42)
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Total 40 major faults are considered. Length derived from referred literature and maps. Maximum earthquake magnitude calculated from relationships recommended by few researchers considering one third length as rupture surface.
25
F18 F48 F24 F49 F27 F25A F5 F26 F28 F29 F6 F3 F7 F8 F10 F9 F43 F45 F46 F1 F30 F31 F32 F33 F35 F34 F37 F41
25
24
F14 F13 F15
24
23
F12
23
22
F2
F4
22
F38
F42
21
Legend :
n th Fault, Fn
21
20
20
19 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74
19 75
GMPEs selected
GMPE Abrahamson and Silva (1997) Boore et al. (1997) Campbell (1997) (Rock site definition is in accordance with NEHRP seismic code) (for Mw > 5 and sites with distance to seismogenic rupture 60 km in active tectonic region) Sadig (1997) Shallow crustal earthquake (Moment magnitude Mw = 4 to 8 and of California distance up to 100 km). Toro et al. (1997) Crustal earthquake of (For spectral period less than 0.2 sec, Intraplate region in Eastern values limited to 1.5 g and periods less and Central North America than 1 sec are limited to 3 g.) Frankel et al. Intraplate region of Central (1996) and Eastern North America Raghukanth and Peninsular India (For sites with shear wave velocity Vs Iyengar (2007) 3.6 km/sec.)
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Applicability Worldwide shallow crustal earthquake Shallow crustal earthquake of Western north America Worldwide shallow crustal earthquake
Remark
Various GMPEs
0.1
Abra.-Silva (1997) Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1997) Campbell (1997) Frankel (1996) Sadigh (1997) Rock Toro (1997) Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007)
0.01
1E-3 0
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200