ADB-JICA-WB Joint Study:

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Cities Case of Metro Manila
Megumi MUTO Research Fellow JICA Research Institute Muto.Megumi@jica.go.jp
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1 2 3 4 5 6

Downscale IPCC climate models for temperature increase @2050 for B1 and A1FI scenarios Assess local effects on precipitation and combine with sea level rise/ storm intensification Simulate different types of hydraulic effects: 1) through river systems, 2) through accumulation of water at lake, and 3) through sea level rise and storm surge at the coast (combination depends on city) Based on the flood maps produced for 12 cases (3 climate scenarios x 2 infrastructure scenarios x 2 return periods), estimate socioeconomic impact (both direct and indirect) with available data, thus deriving the benefit side of adaptation. Consider investment mix and their costs necessary for adaptation (focusing on flood control infrastructure) Conduct Net Present Value (economic, not financial) and EIRR calculations

In addition: Firm and urban poor household surveys to understand the details of vulnerabilities. Health impact analysis

Flood-prone areas in Manila

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Flood Prone Areas in Metro-Manila

KAMANAVA Area

Pasig-Marikina Basin

West Mangahan Area

West Mangahan area

West Mangahan area

West Mangahan area

KAMANAVA area

Pasig-Marikina area

Downscale IPCC climate models for temperature increase @2050 for B1 and A1FI scenarios (University of Tokyo IR3S for all city case studies)

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Assess local effects on precipitation and combine with sea level rise/ storm intensification

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Simulation Cases (Case of Metro Manila)

Simulation Case
Temperature Rise (oC) (downscaled)

Sea Level Rise (cm) (global)

Increase Rate of Rainfall (%)

Storm Surge Height (m)

1 2 3 4 5

Status quo climate B1 with storm level at status quo B1 with strengthened storm level A1FI with storm level at status quo A1FI with strengthened storm level

0 1.17 1.17 1.80 1.80

0 19 19 29 29

0 9.4 9.4 14.4 14.4

0.91 0.91 1.00 0.91 1.00

*Note: ground subsidence considered to arrive at local sea level rise

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Simulate different types of hydraulic effects: 1) through river systems, 2) through accumulation of water at lake, and 3) through sea level rise and storm surge at the coast (combination depends on city)

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B1/30-year Flood/Existing flood control structures

B1/30-year Flood/Continue 1990 Master Plan

A1FI/100-year Flood/Existing flood control structures

A1FI/100-year Flood/Continue 1990 Master Plan

Based on the flood maps produced for 12 cases (3 climate scenarios x 2 infrastructure scenarios x 2 return periods), estimate socio-economic impact (both direct and indirect) with available data, thus deriving the benefit side of adaptation.

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Summary of Inundation Area in the Pasig-Marikina Basin

Simulation Case 30-year Flood Existing Structures 34.6 km2 42.5 km2 47.0 km2 Implementing Current Master Plan 14.7 km2 20.8 km2 22.8 km2 100-year Flood Existing Structures 53.7 km2 63.2 km2 68.0 km2 Implementing Current Master Plan 29.1 km2 40.1 km2 44.1 km2

1 2 3

Status quo climate B1 A1FI

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Classification of Flood Water Depths

Water Depths (m) Category Minimum 0.0000010 Maximum 0.080 Remarks

No adverse effect to all buildings, infrastructures, utilities and transportation Will affect transportation but no buildings, infrastructures and utilities Definitely affects transportation, some buildings, infrastructures and utilities Adverse effects on transportation, infrastructures, utilities and one floor level of buildings Same as category 5 but will affect two floor levels of buildings Same as category 5 but will affect three floor levels of buildings
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2 3 4 5

0.081 0.201 0.501 1.001 3.001 6.001

0.200 0.500 1.000 3.000 6.000 9.000

6 7

Socio-economic assessment

Source: Adapted with revisions from Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (1976) and Green et. al., (1983)

Direct Impact Assessment Flowchart

Data from Direct Impact

Secondary (Indirect) Impacts Analysis

Firms, residential

Income
Unit rate from Firm, household surveys

Flood Affected Buildings

Loss of Income

Trips Generated/ Attracted (Public Mode)

Time Value: Public Users Time Value: Private Users

Flood Affected Area and Roads

Traffic Zones

To work & Business Trips

Travel Time Delay Cost

Trips Generated/ Attracted (Private Mode) 23

Added up benefits (savings)

! ! ! !
-

Cost of buildings Vehicle operation cost savings Travel time savings through existing/future road investments Avoided income loss (firms, formal/informal households)
Use future predicted values as much as possible. Use growth rate to arrive from these future values up to 2050. Need more work on shadow prices, etc. Should savings of power/rail operator be included?
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DATA: Future Land Use of Metro Manila, 2020

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DATA: Transport Infrastructure for Metro Manila, 2015

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Trip data

Sources: JICA-MMUTIS and JICA-PPP/MUEN

Informal settlers data (present)

Sources: LGUs of MM and28 HLURB

Affected area and population

!!"#$$!%&'()'*!%+',!-./ 01!23 11.87 01!4# 12.95 01!%#5# 13.64 4%6!23 4%6!4# 4%6!%#5# 5.25 6.97 7.62

"#$$!%&'()'*!"78!-./ 01!23 20.08 01!4# 22.13 01!%#5# 23.27 4%6!23 4%6!4# 4%6!%#5# 7.08 7.08 11.74
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Buildings Base Cost (present cost)

Residential Buildings Type* 1A 1B 1C IIA IIB IIC IIIA Median Construction Cost 9,200 Finishing (25%) 2,300 Household Effects (35%) 4,025 Type 1A 1B 1C IIA IIB IIC IIIA
1

Commercial Buildings Median Construction Cost 11,100 Durable Assets2 27,750 Stocks2

333,000

6,150 2,550

1,538 638

2,691 1,116

7,750 5,700

19,375 14,250

232,500 171,000

Institutional Buildings Type 1A 1B 1C IIA IIB IIC IIIA

1

Median Construction Cost 11,000

Durable Assets2 2,970

Stocks2

1,100

7,500 4,100

2,025 1,107

750 410

Type1 1A 1B 1C IIA IIB IIC IIIA

Industrial Buildings Median Durable Construction Assets2 Cost 6,050 26,620

Stocks2

22,990

3,550 1,900

15,620 8,360

13,490 7,220

Source: LGU Assessors Office

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Building Damage Rates

Flood Damage Rates by Building Use
Building Use Cost Item Finishings Residential Household Effects Assets
-

50 cm 0.0920 0.1450 0.2320

100-200 cm 0.119 0.326 0.453

200-300 cm 0.580 0.928 0.9661

Above 300 cm 0.834 0.991 0.966

Business Entities1 (Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial)

Stocks

0.1280

0.267

0.8971

0.8971

Source: Adapted from the Manual for Economic Study on Flood Control, May 2000, Ministry of Construction (presently the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport), Japan 1/ maximum rate given is for depth of 200-299 cm. The same rates are likewise applied to Institutional and Industrial.

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Building Damage Costs (present cost)

Cost of Damages to Buildings
Cost of Damage by Land Use by Water Depth (in 000 Php) Condition of Metro Manila Present Land Use 20 - 50 cm Status Quo B1 A1F1 Businessas-Usual Status Quo B1 A1F1 22,523,23 18,478,510 17,871,154 14,122,799 19,535,278 23,360,031 Above 50 cm -3m 113,559,497 155,321,466 177,466,638 34,825,827 54,809,224 65,140,293 Above 3 m -6m 3,919,805 5,021,023 5,504,319 3,395,851 2,717,361 2,822,537 Above 6 m -9m 190,832 288,125 422,788 7,145,807 7,173,132 7,184,067 Above 9 m 121,958 121,958 123,012 87,437 84,651 9,473 Total 140,315,328 179,231,083 201,387,913 59,577,722 84,319,648 98,519,007

Existing Infra

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Affected Roads
Flood Scenario (Existing Infra) Status Quo B1 A1FI Flood Scenario (Businessas-Usual) Status Quo B1 A1FI Road Length by Inundation Depth (kms) 8-20 cm Major 4.5 5.4 5.3 Minor 3.9 9.7 6.9 21-50 cm Major 22.1 13.6 14.6 Minor 23.8 15.1 18.2 Above 50 cm Major 31.9 47.9 53.6 Minor 39.8 55.6 60.3 Total 125.9 147.3 158.9

Road Length by Inundation Depth (kms) 8-20 cm Major 3.78 7.24 9.45 Minor 4.33 8.15 9.05 21-50 cm Major 6.40 9.54 12.62 Minor 10.45 15.73 16.28 Above 50 cm Major 7.45 12.07 14.97 Minor 13.42 20.82 25.63 Total 45.82 73.55 87.99
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Affected Vehicles

27

12 13

14 28 15

Daily Traffic Volumes from Roadside Traffic Count Stations in Metro Manila

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17 18 19 1 2 3 4 5 7 21 22 8 23 10 24 25 26 11 9 6 20 29

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Vehicle Operating Cost for Vehicles in MM

Public Mode Private Mode Peso/km Peso/km Good / Fair 9.614 11.795 Inundated (bad) 14.316 16.962 Flood Incremental Cost 4.702 5.167 Road Condition
Source: Department of Public Works and Highways, 2006 Price Levels

Traffic Count Stations in Metro Manila

Total Public Direction Vehicles Both Directions Inundation Cost (Php/km) 687,965

Total Private Vehicles Inundation Cost (Php/km)

Total Vehicles Inundation Cost (Php/km)

Total

146,313

796,606 3,745,642

918,271 4,433,607

Note: Computation for all flood scenarios.

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Travel Time Value

Flood Scenario Public
Mode Type Private Public Time Value of Trip Makers (Pesos/hour) 20021/ 2050 81.30 148.00 45.45 83.00

No. of Trips Private 217,645 280,046 295,015 999,355 1,223,565 1,212,727 121,971 174,004 229,933 208,314 341,766 429,490

Cumulative Travel Time Delay Cost (Php/hr) Public Private 38,517,064 46,426,792 47,652,359 144,518,892 157,970,385 159,739,956 15,107,760 22,263,697 27,597,116 32,950,807 51,703,832 68,449,818 17,629,240 22,683,717 23,896,185 147,904,489 177,993,032 179,483,552 9,879,688 14,058,719 18,624,607 30,830,421 50,581,344 63,564,534
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EXISTING INFRA: 2002 Status Quo 855,935 B1 1,031,706 A1F1 1,058,941 EXISTING INFRA: 2050 Status Quo 1,741,191 B1 1,903,258 A1F1 1,924,578 BUSINESS-AS-USUAL 2002 Status Quo 335,728 B1 496,336 A1F1 613,269 BUSINESS-AS-USUAL 2050 Status Quo 396,998 B1 622,938 A1F1 824,697

LGU City of Manila Kalookan City Makati City Malabon City Mandaluyong City Marikina City Navotas Pasay City Pasig City Quezon City San Juan City Taguig City Pateros Total MM
Source: JICA-MMUTIS

Flood-affected Generated/Attracted Trips by Purpose School Recreation Medical Religious 2,002,254 41,034 164,033 92,195 284 3,339 5,507 169,085 2,464 5,445 18,075 197,922 1,538 2,764 11,520 143,333 1,275 4,052 6,639 173,042 2,820 4,878 16,313 115,391 1,943 1,758 6,840 30,505 662 2,199 1,158 280,050 4,897 13,777 22,249 460,404 4,080 47,833 33,372 58,564 499 2,725 3,408 96,033 4,665 2,415 5,971 52,406 600 522 3929 3,871,184 66,161 255,218 267,028
With a trip rate of 2.2, approximately 1.8 M students affected 37

Water facilities

No damage of flood assumed since: Pipes are positively charged; No record of floodrelated damage incidences; and Facilities are above flood levels.

Source: Maynilad Water Services and Manila Waters, Inc.

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Power sector

Flood-affected TRANSCO Substations in Metro Manila

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Rise in Flood Water Level (m) 1

Substations CBP 1-A (at Mall of Asia, Pasay City) North Port (at Antipolo St., Tondo, Manila) Capasco (at Napindan Road, Taguig) Taguig (at Elisco Road, Taguig)

Elevation (m)1 0.61 4.00

Affected Areas Pasay City Paranaque City Manila South Kalookan Navotas CAPASCO Taguig Taguig City Pateros Makati City Pasig City Mandaluyong City Malate, Manila Sta. Ana, Manila San Andres, Manila Paco, Manila Ermita, Manila Makati City Pasay City Paranaque City Makati City

4.88 4.88

Affected Power Distribution Infrastructure

6 Paco (at Quirino Hiway, Sta. Ana, Manila 5.79

Pasay (at EDSA near Tramo, Pasay City

6.10

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Flood-affected RSS of Urban Rail Transport

RSS No. & Location (LRT Line 1) 3 - Buendia Station 5 - Central Station * 6 - D. Jose Station * 7 - Blumentritt Station
* Any impact on these substations would paralyze entire line. Source: Light Rail Transit Authority

Minimum Flood Depth 0.45 m 0.42 m 0.55 m 0.26 m

= income loss of P 4.7M per day for the line

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Consider investment mix and their costs necessary for adaptation (focusing on flood control infrastructure)

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Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in Metro Manila

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Conduct Net Present Value (economic, not financial) and EIRR calculations

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Framework for EIRR & NPV

P100 Benefits
Benefit side 2,9:;<=!7; 4>:?*:;<= 2,9:;<=!7; @+,9'?!@:A' %97:*!B7==!7C D;(7A' EFG!=,9:;<=H ')(I %==>A8J7;= "+7N'()!B:C'!7C!O$ P',+= Q!R!O!P',+= G7;=)+>(J7; S$#$!=),+) (7;=)+>(J7; 5?77* 8+7T,T:?:J'=!7C #U#$$!,;*!#UQ$

P30 Benefits

D;9'=)A';) F8J7;=!,;* K:L'=!C7+ G?:A,)' GM,;<' %*,8),J7; "+7N'()=

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Results of EIRR & NPV (tentative numbers only)

Description Investment EIRR (%) NO DAM, combining incremental flood control investments P100 A1FI Level WITH DAM P100 A1FI Level Php 479 M Yen 2,971M 32.83 NPV@15% (Php Million) 670 NPV@3% (Php Million) 12,700

Php 3,974 M Yen 24,639 M

8.12

1,833

9,912

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In addition
Firm and urban poor household surveys to understand the details of vulnerabilities. ! Health impact analysis.
!

- both using present data

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Household Level Geographic distribution of households

River Basin Community/Barangay San Agustin, Malabon Longos, Malabon Bangkulasi, Navotas Bagumbayan South, West Navotas, Navotas Barangay 28, Caloocan Rosario, Pasig City Bagong Ilog, Pasig City Ugong, Pasig City Tumana, Marikina City Ibayo Tipas, Taguig City Calzada, Taguig City Napindan, Taguig City San Joaquin, Pasig City Number of Households 15 10 15 30 15 15 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Total 100

KAMANAVA Area

100

Marikina-Pasig River Basin

100

West-Mangahan Area Total

300
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Urban poor households affected by multipleforms of disasters

Typhoon 35 (11.67%) 9 (3%) Tidal surge 1 (0.33%)

118 (39.33%) 53 (17.67%) Flood 20 (6.67%) Not affected 58 (19.33%) 6 (2%)

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Absent days from school of affected households

Type of disaster Days 0 1--5 6--10 11--15 16--20 21--25 26--30 >30 Floods 44 (15%) 66 (22%) 20 (7%) 2 (1%) 1 (0%) 2 (1%) 0 (0%) 4 (1%) Tidal Surge 21 (7%) 44 (15%) 20 (7%) 2 (1%) 3 (1%) 0 (0%) 1 (0%) 3 (1%) 94 5.19 Typhoons 49 (16%) 65 (22%) 28 (9%) 3 (1%) 2 (1%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 4 (1%) 151 4.09

Number of affected 139 households Mean absent days 3.95 Note:% of sample households is presented in the parenthesis

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Distribution of sick days caused by the past disasters

Type of disaster Days 0 1--7 8--14 >=15 Number of affected households Mean absent days Flood 42 (14%) 54 (18%) 4 (1%) 1 (0%) 100 5.13 Tidal Surge 35 (12%) 30 (10%) 1 (0%) 0 (0%) 66 2.53 Typhoon 53 (18%) 36 (12%) 2 (1%) 0 (0%) 91 2.33

Note:% of sample households is presented in the parenthesis

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Distribution of sickness caused by the past disaster

Type of disaster Sickness N/A Primary Infections Fever Flu Skin Diseases Digestive Disorders Dengue Colds Flood 207 (69%) 4 (1%) 10 (3%) 55 (18%) 8 (3%) 13 (4%) 2 (1%) Tidal Surge 244 (81%) 0 (0%) 3 (1%) 39 (13%) 5 (2%) 8 (3%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (0%) 300 Typhoon 219 (73%) 2 (1%) 7 (2%) 60 (20%) 3 (1%) 9 (3%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 300

1 (0%) Kidney Disorder 0 (0%) 300 Total Note:% within column is presented in the parenthesis

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Distribution of medications fee, caused by the past disasters

Type of disaster Medications Fee (Php) 0 1--1000 1001--2000 2001--3000 3001--4000 4001--5000 >5000 Flood 233 (78%) 60 (20%) 0 (0%) 1 (0%) 0 (0%) 2 (1%) 4 (1%) Tidal Surge 257 (86%) 41 (14%) 0 (0%) 1 (0%) 1 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 67 301 Typhoon 238 (79%) 58 (19%) 1 (0%) 1 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (0%) 1 (0%) 91 318

Number of 100 housholds getting ill Mean medications fee 1063 Note:% of sample households is presented in the parenthesis

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Distribution of absent days from work caused by the past disasters

Type of disaster Days Floods Tidal Surge Typhoons 0 244 272 243 (81%) (91%) (81%) 39 21 45 1--5 (13%) (7%) (15%) 6--10 13 5 10 (4%) (2%) (3%) 3 0 1 11--15 (1%) (0%) (0%) >15 1 2 1 (0%) (1%) (0%) Total 300 300 300 Note: % within column is presented in the parenthesis

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Distribution of income loss caused by the past disasters

Type of disaster Value (Php) 0 1--500 501--1000 1001--1500 1501--2000 2001--2500 >2500
Number of the households absent from work

Floods 229 (76%) 36 (12%) 17 (6%) 7 (2%) 9 (3%) 1 (0%) 1 (0%) 92

Tidal Surge 267 (89%) 19 (6%) 7 (2%) 3 (1%) 2 (1%) 0 (0%) 2 (1%) 52

Typhoons 233 (78%) 38 (13%) 18 (6%) 6 (2%) 3 (1%) 0 (0%) 2 (1%) 86 629

699 649 Mean income loss Note: % of sample households is presented in the parenthesis

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Firm Level Number of affected firms & the temporarily stopped days
Area Pasig - Marikina Bgys Kamanava Bgys West Manggahan Bgys Other Barangays All Establishments Obs. 86 66 58 76 286 Affected firms (over the past 3 years) No. 28 37 29 40 134 % 32.6 56.1 50.0 52.6 46.9 Mean 1.0 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 Stopped days Min 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1 Max 2 9 14 7 14
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Affected reasons and cause in typhoon Milenyo

Affected reasons Products delivering problem Low sales Raw materials receiving Employee shortage Machine/Equipments Inventory damage Order cancelled Electricity /Power outage Damages to Water shortage Others No. of reasons cited by firms 97 109 65 154 24 38 25 172 53 9 11 Cause of damage Flooding Flooding Flooding within 50 km within 5 km Strong wind within premise Meters Radius 11 13 44 24 17 26 31 20 5 16 25 13 15 27 53 47 13 1 5 13 1 4 4 3 3 9 5 10 5 8 137 1 1 3 32 2 1 3 3 1 3 Others 1 5 1 2 5 2 4 1 1 2

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Reasons of employees absence from work

Reason Transport unavailability 93 46 33 Health problem 6 2 4 Foods securing 6 3 4 House repairing 66 30 13 Others 30 8 13

Area

Obs.

Pasig - Marikina Bgys Kamanava Bgys West Manggahan Bgys

148 55 43

Other Barangays 60 46 2 1 13 1 Note: One firm may cite more than one reason, so the number of affected firms does not equal the number of the reasons of work absence

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Income & Assets losses caused by typhoon Milenyo (by Area)

Income Pasig - Marikina Bgys 86 480,194 (47) Kamanava Bgys 66 364,359 (39) West Manggahan Bgys 58 245,317 (30) Other Barangays 76 229,238 (40) All Establishments 286 341,719 (156) Note: Number of affected firms is presented in the parenthesis Area Obs. Loss in Assets 254,582 (75) 268,461 (55) 816,147 (43) 113,247 (60) 325,099 (233)

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Income & Assets losses caused by typhoon Milenyo (by Sector)

Area Manufacturing Obs. 168 Loss in Income 402,589 (97) Construction 12 218,750 (8) Wholesale and Retail Trade 43 227,429 (21) Hotels and Restaurants Transport,Storage and Communications 23 102,773 (11) 16 598,050 (10) Financial Intermediation 5 50,000 (3) Health and Social Work All Establishments 19 78,333 (6) 341,719 (156) Note: Number of affected firms is presented in the parenthesis 286 Assets 509,969 (139) 31,982 (11) 57,891 (33) 22,310 (21) 141,083 (12) 0 (4) 33,744 (13) 325,099 (233)

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Health impact analysis

Estimated daily risk of infection of City of Manila (Data of 2003)

Estimated daily risk of infection via incidental ingestion of flood water in Manila City
61