Monthly Economic Affairs January, 2014

Special Edition
Volume-III, Issue-I JANUARY 2014
The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline

Finding the win-win for Pakistan
Iran facing serious gas shortage because of slow progress in raising levels of production from South Pars the field that is supposed to fill the IP pipeline
Pak shale oil reserves at 9.1billion barrels

Page-9
PRICE: 250
8,900MW nuclear power generation planned

Page-12
Investment environment fraught with risks

Page-13
Exclusive
EDITORIAL BOARD
Dr Ashfaq hassan Khan Dr Abid Sulehri Shabbir Ali Nizami Sajid Gondal Zubair Malik
JANUARY 2014
EDITORIAL
The sinking of Martin Bashir

Pages 18-19
Tamera Swofford
Future of Energy
ADVISORY BOARD
Haroon Akhtar Khan Hamidullah Jan Afridi
EDITOR
Tausif-Ur-Rehman
Prospects of shale gas revolution in Pakistan

Pages 18-19
Deputy Editor
Ahsaas Wasti
Correspondents
Aamir Rizvi Muhammad Bilal Khan Shiraz Nizami
Marketing
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ith over 50 trillion cubic feet of known shale gas reserves in Sindh alone, Pakistanis can also enjoy the benefits of cheap and abundant source of energy for decades via the shale gas revolution already sweeping America. Increased production of gas from shale rock in the US has created a huge new supply, pushing down gas prices from $13/BTU (million British thermal units) four years ago to just $2/BTU today, even as the price of oil has more than doubled. By contrast, the Iran pipeline gas formula links the gas price to oil prices. It means that Pakistan will have to pay $12.30/BTU at oil price of $100/barrel, and a whopping $20/BTU for gas if oil returns to its 2008 peak of $150/barrel. To encourage investment in developing domestic shale gas, Pakistan has approved a new exploration policy with improved incentives as compared with its 2009 policy. In addition to the fact that the Iran gas is extremely expensive, the entire IranPakistan gas pipeline project raises other serious issues as well. Iran-Pakistan Pipeline Issues: 1. Chinese investors and contractors have pulled out of the project for fear of being hit by US sanctions on their banks and other companies. 2. Russias Gazrom is reportedly interested but only if it gets the deal at whatever price it decides to charge without any competitive bidding. 3. Pakistani companies and financial institutions are also under threat of US sanctions if they participate in the project. 4. If the pipeline does eventually get built, it will still be several years before gas starts to flow to Pakistan. 5. If Iran is still under US sanctions when the Iranian gas imports finally begin, Pakistan will have difficulty paying for the gas using international banking system. Iran has already been suspended by SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which is the main mechanism used for international bank transactions. 6. The largest chunk of Pakistans trade deficit is accounted for by energy imports. Iranian gas bill will only worsen this deficit, contributing to yet another balance of payments crisis sending Pakistan back to IMF. Advantages of Domestic Shale Gas Development: 1. Cheap domestic gas can start flowing from Pakistani shale in a couple of years if Pakistan can make a deal with US (and American pioneers of shale gas like George Mitchels Devon Energy) to invest and execute on an accelerated schedule in exchange for dropping Iran pipeline. 2. Pakistan will dramatically reduce its dependence on foreign sources and save a lot of foreign exchange spent on hydrocarbon imports. 3. Gas burns a lot cleaner than coal which is also a option given vast amounts of it in Thar desert. World Bank and other International financial institutions are more amenable to financing shale gas development than coal. 4. Abundant and cheap domestic gas supplies can help reduce electricity loadshedding which is caused mainly by under-utilization of installed generating capacity for lack of affordable fuel. Shale gas revolution began a few years ago when an American named George P. Mitchell defied the skeptics and fought his opponents to extract natural gas from shale rock. The method he and his team used to release the trapped gas, called fracking, has paid off dramatically. In 2000, shale gas represented just 1 percent of American natural gas supplies. Today, it is over 30 percent and rising. Among the potential downsides of shale gas development is the possibility of groundwater contamination reported in some places in the United States. Such risks can be minimized by following accepted practices to protect the aquifers which are found at levels well above the deep shale rock fractured for extracting natural gas. Cheap and abundant energy is a pre-requisite for rapid economic growth in any country. Pakistan is no exception. The sooner Pakistanis recognize and resolve this crisis, the better it will be for the south Asian nation.
BISP: the foiled support

Waseem Kayani
Pages 22-23
PSO continues market dominance ...............................8 Pakistan Oil & Gas 2014 Summit.....................................9 Time to buy PSO shares...........10 Qatar approves delivery of LNG in November 2014...................12 Investment environment fraught with risks.................................13 NOTA electing to reject...........16 South Asia: from political trust deficit to energy crises.......20-21 Contemporary TV drama...26-27 Multiplier effects of youth business loan scheme...............30-31 Kalabagh Dam: not a dead horse................32-33 A message of prosperity from Tu rkey....................................34-35 Creating momentum: today is tomorrow................................36
War of the Words

Afrah Jamal
Page 24-25
The moral diplomacy:
What should the US do?

Sabria Balland
Pages 28-29
GSP + status; the promised goods!

Tausif Ur Rehman
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JAN 2014
JAN 2014
The Iran-Pakistan pipeline

Finding the win-win for Pakistan
(SDPI), this would bring about a death sentence for Pakistans economy. Thus, if the pipeline project was to continue, Pakistan might end up having surplus supply of gas that consumers and local industry cannot even afford. Moreover, Turkey, a current importer of Iranian gas still faces trouble getting adequate supply of gas from Iran during winter months, a time when Irans own domestic demand for gas peaks. Recently, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh himself raised concern about Iran facing serious gas shortage because of slow progress in raising levels of production from South Pars the field that is supposed to fill the IP pipeline. If such factors were seriously taken into account, the pipeline agreement would likely have never been signed at the first place. In addition to exploring other options from Pakistans indigenous resources and renewable energy sector, the question that policymakers should now be asking is how the IP pipeline project can best come to an end so that Pakistans international standing is not damaged. It is thus important to explore the various exit strategies Pakistan could adopt and what implications each of them entails. First, as Pakistan seems to do with other problems, politicians might be comfortable blaming the potential pullout on US pressure. However, this will not only prove unfavorable for the goal of reviving Pakistani-US ties, but will also seriously hamper the approval ratings of the new Pakistani government. The second way out is to blame the previous government. While this option might be easy to digest, it has serious long-term repercussions. Holding the previous administration accountable for the failure creates a precedent in which a new Pakistani government can arbitrarily scrap an international agreement. This in turn creates a lack of trust among potential regional and international partners in Pakistans ability to see its agreements through from one administration to another. The third possibility is to keep the project lingering. This will attract more energy aid projects from the United States and cheaper oil offers from Saudi Arabia. However, given that Pakistan will be liable to pay a $3 million per day penalty to Iran if its side of the pipeline is not completed by the end of 2014; this option is also not plausible. The fourth possibility is to renegotiate the gas prices and the terms of the agreement with Iran. Though this option might be successful in de-linking gas prices from those of international crude oil, it would neither solve the financing issue nor the security concerns in regard to Balochistan. These flawed options make the situation seem discouraging, in this conundrum lies a tremendous diplomatic opportunity which if
COVER STORY
Sajid Gondal
he governments strategy on the IP pipeline has been dominated by the issue of financing the Pakistani leg of the pipeline, public pressure stemming out of acute power shortages and a political consensus that demands standing up to the threat of US sanctions. However, an overemphasis on these three factors should not hamper our ability to analyse other important dynamics involved in this project. Indeed, the price at which Pakistan would contractually purchase Iranian gas is linked to international crude oil prices. Iran itself imports gas from Turkmenistan at USD 4/MMBtu while the price at which it would export to Pakistan is an exorbitant figure of USD 14/MMBtu. According to a recent report by Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Exploring other options from Pakistans indigenous resources and renewable energy sector, the question that policymakers should now be asking is how the IP pipeline project can best come to an end so that Pakistans international standing is not damaged. It is thus important to explore the various exit strategies Pakistan could adopt and what implications each of them entails.
articulated well could provide Pakistan with a win-win outcome. Instead of provoking Irans anger by scrapping the gas pipeline deal without offering anything against it, Pakistan should replace it with another contract to import more Iranian-produced electricity. Pakistan is already importing Iranian electricity at Rs.10/unit and could enhance its import to the efficient levels of the current transmission capacity. Even increasing this capacity by building more transmission lines is a cheaper and a more viable option than to proceed with the IP pipeline project. Furthermore, it will also be in Irans interests to establish more power plants within the country which could be used for both, its domestic production and as well as for importing gas to Pakistan. Meanwhile, pulling out of the project will also give Pakistan greater leverage with the United States and Saudi Arabia the two staunchest opponents of the pipeline. Pakistan could use this leverage to procure favorable oil prices from Saudi Arabia, as well as assurances of heavy investment from the United States and other international partners to exploit shale gas and renewable energy such as solar, biomass, and tidal energy sectors that are estimated to have tremendous potential. This will also improve Pakistans energy diversity and, in so doing, strengthen its energy security in the long run. This exit strategy will allow the Pakistani government to save face without having to compromise its relations with either Iran or the United States. Additionally, it will increase the governments ability to proceed with other necessary yet unpopular steps to put the economy on track. Even Iran will experience no short-term loss as a result of this plan; the 900 km pipeline it has completed on its side of the border is still necessary for its own domestic supply of gas.
The writer is a Islamabad-based journalist. He can be reached at gondal.sajid@gmail.com
JAN 2014 DEC 2013
JAN 2014 DEC 2013
ENERGY
PSO continues market dominance

During 1QFY14, PSO registered an 81% increase in its quarterly after tax earnings which stood atRs 7.8 billion in comparison to Rs 4.3 billion during the same period last year. The PSO is expecting its half yearly earnings to reflect similar growth with its turnover during the period July to November 2013 having increased to Rs 621 billion as against Rs 525 billion during the same time period last year an increase of 18%.
ver the past few years, Pakistans state enterprises have often displayed little or nothing to assure the government of their financial viability and have similarly failed to garner public appreciation or establish themselves as market leaders. In stark contrast to such norms, Pakistan State Oil has stood out amongst other public sector companies.During the present governments era, PSO has been one of the few state-run companies which has displayed increasing profitability and improved performance. During 1QFY14, PSO registered an 81% increase in its quarterly after tax earnings which stood atRs 7.8 billion in comparison to Rs 4.3 billion during the same period last year. The PSO is expecting its half yearly earnings to reflect similar growth with its turnover during the period July to November 2013 having increased to Rs 621 billion as against Rs 525 billion during the same time period last year an increase of 18%. Similarly as per the data of the Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC), the PSO continued to dominate the oil market with an overall market share of 63.8% during 1QFY14 with its share in Black Oil and White Oil stood at 75.9% and 52.5% respectively. PSOs market share has also witnessed significant month on month growth over the past 5 months with its share in the HSD market rising from 50% to 57%,
Ahmed Pervez janjua MD PSO
MOGAS improving from 48% to 50% and PSOs share in the lubricants market increasing from 16% to 28% amongst OMCs across Pakistan within a period of just 3 months. As a result of these cohesive efforts PSO expects to close with an overall market share approximately above 62% in 1HFY14. When contacted, employees from the company said that MD PSO, Mr. Amjad Janjua has been overseeing efforts to improve customer service and provision of quality products at PSO retail outlets and conducted random visits to retail outlets to monitor the performance of the retail stations. They stated that the MD has also been supervising PSOs sales efforts for enhancing overall market share. The company also appears to be one
of the few public sector companies whose stock prices have shown considerable improvement and have consistently outperformed the stock market expectations. During the past fiscal year, PSO was one of the 12 listed firms that outperformed the benchmark KSE100 share index by 24 percent in 2013YTD. The companys share price touched a high mark of Rs 340.38 per share in December reflecting rising investor confidence in the leading player in the oil market while the companys share in the benchmark index increased from 2.4 to 2.9 percent in 2013. Furthermore, PSO has been cited as a top pick by analysts at various investment companies who believe that above-average returns could be generated from investing in PSO shares.
nternational Research Networks (IRN), the London based global summits organizer, has announced the launch of the Pakistan Oil and Gas 2014 Summit, the new addition to the companys oil and gas portfolio. The summit will be a high profile meeting that will take place 19th-20th March in the capital of Pakistan, Islamabad and will discuss the exploration and production, investment and infrastructure within the countrys oil and gas fields. The senior-level speaking faculty will include Governmental Officials from Pakistan, officials from national and international oil companies, widely known geologists and energy analysts as well as key service providers who will demonstrate the legal framework, geology and proven reserves pipeline routes, technical issues, key threats onshore and offshore, emerging technologies, and forthcoming opportunities during the two day summit. Total conventional and unconventional gas reserves in Pakistan are estimated at about 160 Tcf and it has the second largest gas infrastructure in the world and the government expects the development of new natural gas fields in the upcoming period. The Pakistan Oil and Gas 2014 Summit happens at a defining moment as the country faces an energy crisis notably due to an increasing overall energy consumption although most of the sedimentary basins remain underexplored. Ministerial keynote speeches, case studies, presentations, panel discussions and workshops will provide investors and operators an overview and all needed information to get involved in the countrys oil and gas potential, considering the conventional oil and gas resources as well as the unconventional ones. The summit will take place in a 5* venue in Islamabad, bringing together 200 key figures of the region. It will provide delegates with networking sessions, such as a private gala dinner and a networking reception that will enable them to sit around the same table with each other in a relaxed atmosphere and establish new business alliances.
Pak shale oil reserves at 9.1billion barrels
akistan has more shale oil than Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released recently. US EIA report estimates Pakistan's total shale oil reserves at 227 billion barrels of which 9.1 billion barrels are technically recoverable with today's technology. In addition, the latest report says Pakistan has 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas of which 105 trillion cubic feet (up from 51 trillion cubic feet reported in 2011) is technically recoverable with current technology. The top ten countries by shale oil reserves include Russia (75 billion barrels), United States (58 billion barrels), China (32 billion barrels), Argentina (27 billion barrels), Libya (26 billion barrels), Venezuela (13 billion barrels), Mexico (13 billion barrels), Pakistan (9.1 billion barrels), Canada (8.8 billion barrels) and Indonesia (7.9 billion barrels). Pakistan's current annual consumption of oil is only 150 million barrels. Even if it more than triples in the next few years, the 9.1 billion barrels currently technically recoverable would be enough for over 18 years. Similarly, even if Pakistan current gas demand of 1.6 trillion cubic feet triples in the next few years, it can be met with 105 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas for more than 20 years. And with newer technologies on the horizon, the level of technically recoverable shale oil and gas resources could increase substantially in the future. As can be seen in the shale resource map, most of Pakistan's shale oil and gas resources are located in the lower Indus basin region, particularly in Ranikot and Sembar shale formations.Since the middle of the 18th century, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the world. Energy has become the life-blood of modern economies. Energy-hungry machines are now doing more and more of the work at much higher levels of productivity than humans and animals who did it in pre-industrial era. Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period where there was extremely large investment in the power sector, and availability of ample electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have. If Pakistan wishes to join the industrialized world, it will have to do the same by having a comprehensive energy policy and large investments in the power sector. Failure to do so would condemn Pakistanis to a life of poverty and backwardness. The availability of large domestic shale oil and gas expands the opportunity to reduce Pakistan's dependence on imports to overcome the current energy crisis and to fuel the industrial economy. But it'll only be possible with high priority given to investments in developing the energy sector of the country.
JAN 2014
JAN 2014
ENERGY
Pakistans energy security via shale gas revolution

To encourage investment in developing domestic shale gas, Pakistan has approved a new exploration policy with improved incentives as compared with its 2009 policy, a petroleum ministry official said recently. Pakistan Petroleum is now inviting fresh bids to auction licenses to explore and develop several blocks in Dera Ismail Khan (KPK), Badin (Sind), Naushero Firoz (Sind) and Jungshahi (Sind), according to Oil Voice. In addition to the fact that the Iran gas is extremely expensive, the entire Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project raises other serious issues as well. Iran-Pakistan Pipeline Issues: 1. Chinese investors and contractors have pulled out of the project for fear of being hit by US sanctions on their banks and other companies. 2. Russia's Gazrom is reportedly interested but only if it gets the deal at whatever price
S natural gas prices have fallen below $2 per million BTU (approx 1000 cubic feet), about one-sixth of the price Pakistan has agreed to pay for Iranian gas. With over 50 trillion cubic feet of known shale gas reserves in Sindh alone, Pakistanis can also enjoy the benefits of cheap and abundant source of energy for decades via the shale gas revolution already sweeping America. Increased production of gas from shale rock in the US has created a huge new supply, pushing down gas prices from $13/BTU (million British thermal units) four years ago to just $2/BTU today, even as the price of oil has more than doubled. By contrast, the Iran pipeline gas formula links the gas price to oil prices. It means that Pakistan will have to pay $12.30/ BTU at oil price of $100/barrel, and a whopping $20/BTU for gas if oil returns to its 2008 peak of $150/barrel.
it decides to charge without any competitive bidding. 3. Pakistani companies and financial institutions are also under threat of US sanctions if they participate in the project. 4. If the pipeline does eventually get built,
it will still be several years before gas starts to flow to Pakistan. 5. If Iran is still under US sanctions when the Iranian gas imports finally begin, Pakistan will have difficulty paying for the gas using international banking system. Iran has already been suspended by SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which is the main mechanism used for international bank transactions. 6. The largest chunk of Pakistan's trade deficit is accounted for by energy imports. Iranian gas bill will only worsen this deficit, contributing to yet another balance of payments crisis sending Pakistan back to IMF. Advantages of Domestic Shale Gas Development: 1. Cheap domestic gas can start flowing from Pakistani shale in a couple of years if Pakistan can make a deal with US (and American
pioneers of shale gas like George Mitchel's Devon Energy) to invest and execute on an accelerated schedule in exchange for dropping Iran pipeline. 2. Pakistan will dramatically reduce its dependence on foreign sources and save a lot of foreign exchange spent on hydrocarbon imports. 3. Gas burns a lot cleaner than coal which is also a option given vast amounts of it in Thar desert. World Bank and other International financial institutions are more amenable to financing shale gas development than coal. 4. Abundant and cheap domestic gas supplies can help reduce electricity load-shedding which is caused mainly by under-utilization of installed generating capacity for lack of affordable fuel. Shale gas revolution began a few years ago when an American named George P.
Mitchell defied the skeptics and fought his opponents to extract natural gas from shale rock. The method he and his team used to release the trapped gas, called fracking, has paid off dramatically. In 2000, shale gas represented just 1 percent of American natural gas supplies. Today, it is over 30 percent and rising. Among the potential downsides of shale gas development is the possibility of groundwater contamination reported in some places in the United States. Such risks can be minimized by following accepted practices to protect the aquifers which are found at levels well above the deep shale rock fractured for extracting natural gas. Cheap and abundant energy is a prerequisite for rapid economic growth in any country. Pakistan is no exception. The sooner Pakistanis recognize and resolve this crisis, the better it will be for the south Asian nation.
Time to buy PSO shares
akistans largest oil marketing company, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has rallied 18% during second quarter so far on account of higher volume and likely margin hike by the government. In this brief an effort has been made to analyze prevailing situation and likely impact of changing economic fundamentals. PSO posted profit after tax of Rs7.8 billion (EPS: Rs31.57) for JulySeptember quarter (1QFY14) as against net profit of Rs4.3 billion (EPS: Rs17.28) for the corresponding period last year. The main reason behind this massive growth in profit was increase in other income rising to Rs10 billion for the period under review. PSO received accrued income from HUBC and KAPCO on account of fuel supplied to them. PSOs accumulated volume for major products i.e. high speed diesel (HSD), furnace oil (FO) and motor gasoline (Mogas) increased by massive17%YoY to 2.1 million tons during Oct-Nov13. Higher FO based generation and heightened CNG load-shedding were main reasons behind this volume growth. December volumes of Mogas are likely to increase further on account of CNG stations shut down in Punjab and KPK provinces. Better profitability is anticipated for 2QFY14 on account of higher volumes. In addition to that, 2.1% depreciation in Pak Rupee during 2QFYTD as against 5% during 1QFY14 will lessen the currency losses impact and increase the profitability. Sui Northern Gas Pipeline (SNGPL) has announced gas load management plan for winter and shut down of gas supply to CNG stations, captive power plants and industrial units in Punjab. At the same time, petrol pump owners in southern Punjab announced a complete shut down until margins on POL products will not be increased. Non-availability of CNG and POL products simultaneously made the case of margin hike stronger and analysts expect the government to take decision on much awaited issue of dealers margin. PSOs higher than expected product volumes and recent interest rate hike of 50bps are likely to improve profitability of PSO. The scrip is currently trading at PER of 4.6x and P/B of 1.2x on FY14 earnings estimates, analysts recommend BUY on PSO with upside potential of 17% from last closing.
SSGC to facilitate consumers with e-payments facility
ui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) has become the first public utility company in Pakistan to sign an agreement with United Bank Limited (UBL) to provide its bill paying customers with the facility of electronic payments. Through this agreement, SSGC bills would be processed and paid via UBLs southern branches in Sindh and Balochistan. This efficient and cost-effective initiative was undertaken by the Value Added Services section of SSGCs IT Department. The system aims to eliminate manual processing, control invalid transaction processing and improve overall data processing standards eventually leading to convenience for the customers. This latest customer-focused facility encompasses complete electronic bill payment and data processing of 70,000 bills through the Utility Bill Control Switch (UBCS) thus shifting the volumes from manual to online processing. This in turn will provide several benefits including reduced customer complaints, quick transfer of funds reducing the cost of holding funds, reduction of invalid transaction processing, improvement of data processing standards and generation of quick customer updates. In his remarks, Zuhair Siddiqui, Managing Director, SSGC reiterated that this initiative is a part of the Companys technology road map implementation that aims to make the entire system cost effective and customer-centric. Ali Hasnain, Head of Retail Banking, UBL stated that this mutually beneficial relationship will assist both organizations to enhance their customer experience. He added I am confident that SSGC will benefit from this customized bills collection solution in monitoring and reconciliation of transactions. We look forward towards developing a mutually beneficial, long term banking relationship with SSGC.
JAN 2014
10
11 JAN 2014
ENERGY
8,900MW nuclear power generation planned
Oil and gas: Investment environment fraught with risks
F
Qatar approves delivery of first vessel in November
akistan plans to have seven functional nuclear plants of 1,100MW each by 2030 in addition to four units of 300MW, producing a total of 8,900MW of electricity. Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Dr Ansar Parvez told newsmen at the Chashma Nuclear Power Complex, 280km southwest of Islamabad, that nuclear power was set to become a major player in the countrys power sector. He was briefing journalists on the eve of the domelaying ceremony of Chashma-IV nuclear power plant on January 1, 2014, which will mark the completion of civil works at the unit and will be followed by installation of the reactor. In addition to the four units at Chashma, two of which (Chashma-III and Chashma-IV) are expected to start commercial operations by 2016; the government has begun work on two 1,100MW plants (Kanupp-II and Kanupp-III) in Karachi, whose ground-breaking ceremony was performed in November. Dr Parvez said that work on five more plants of 1,100MW each would commence in next 10 years. The process for site selection of plants is continuing and with the passage of time indigenization is increasing, he said. The country began its journey towards proficiency in nuclear energy in 1972. The PAEC chairman said the initial years were utilised in gaining experience in safe operation of plants, building confidence and acquiring technology. The platform, he underscored, was now ready for starting producing electricity from nuclear sources at a bigger scale. With more than 55 reactor-years of successful operating experience to its credit, the PAEC can confidently move from technology acquisition status to actually starting contributing sizeable electrical energy to the system, he said. Dr Parvez said units of 300MW would no longer be installed after completion of Chashma-IV. The Kanupp-I, the 125MW facility and the first one to be set up in the country, he said, would meanwhile be wound up after Kanupp-II became operational. The design life of Kanupp-I ended in 2002 and the plant was re-licensed by the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority in 2004 after upgrades. The Kanupp-II and Kanupp-III will lay foundation of large-sized nuclear power plants, he said. He noted that availability of funds was not an issue for setting up more nuclear power plants, but agreed that there were no sources other than China from where the country could get reactors. Pakistan is facing a global policy of denial, he added. Speaking about safety, the PAEC chairman said it was a top priority for the country.
fter thorough analysis of Pakistans readiness to import liquefied natural gas (LNG), the Qatar government has given approval to deliver first LNG vessel at Port Qasim in November 2014. Formal technical dialogue with the Qatar Gas Companywill begin soon to deliberate the heads of agreement, officials said. In this regard, a delegation of Qatar Gas Company comprising Abdullah Ahmad Al Hussaini and Hamad Abdul Aziz Al-Mahanadi held preliminary talks with senior officials of Pakistans Petroleum ministry, Inter-State Gas Company (ISGC), Sui Southern Gas Company and Pakistan State Oil on January 2, 2014. The heads of agreementwould mainly include the specification of the LNG and its measurement and mode of take and pay. Once the heads of agreement gets settled then the agreement on the LNG price will be signed after negotiations, petroleum ministry official told Economic Affairs. At present, the spot buying of LNG hovers around $17 to $18MMBTU. On behalf of Pakistan, PSO will initiate the dialogue with the Qatari authorities and to this effect it is to hire one the best legal firm from international market and experts from open market. Moreover, the experts of SSGC, Inter-State Gas Company and officials concerned of the ministry will also assist PSO for dialogue on LNG supply agreement with Qatar.
oreign oil and gas exploration and production companies view the investment environment in Pakistan as something that is fraught with risks, which emerge due to bureaucratic hurdles, cumbersome regulatory framework, slow implementation, inconsistent policies, NAB investigations, law and order issues and foreign policy. Background interviews with officials of these companies reveal that the risk factor is high, driving away prominent names Malaysias Petronas, British Petroleum, Irelands Tullow, Canadian Niko Resources and USbased Chevron. Risk factor is high for investment in oil and gas in Pakistan, most foreign companies put the risk at 25%, which have gone up due to lack of implementation of policies, the head of a company told Economic Affairs. He said most of the foreign companies painted the picture based on media reports, which affected the parameters used to calculate the investment risk. If we get a reasonable return, then we dont take into account these parameters, he said. In an effort to stimulate investment, Pakistan has approved Petroleum Policy for 2012, low Btu policy, tight gas policy and also offered attractive prices for offshore drilling. It is also working on tapping shale gas reserves. However, no new investor participated in the bidding of exploration blocks during the tenure of the previous government and only existing players expressed interest. Foreign companies term bureaucracy a major stumbling block. Though the country saw significant gas discoveries before 2000 under the Petroleum Policy for 1994, the bureaucracy pressed the then government to
bring a new policy and reduce the gas price. Only two companies Dewan Petroleum and OMV found gas reserves under the new 2001 policy. However, Dewan later faced a NAB probe over the price issue and OMV also encountered price problems, which did not end.In another example, Polish Oil and Gas has been supplying tight gas to a stateowned gas distributing company for the last five months, but has not received a single penny because of bureaucratic hurdles. Inconsistency of policies has also added to the risk. OMV made an investment following guarantees that the price set in the 2012 Petroleum Policy for a 10% increase in production would be offered. However, this clause was amended when the new government took over. This is what we are facing, putting our investment at stake, a head of a foreign company said. Director General Petroleum Concession (DGPC) and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) are the two regulators that deal with exploration companies. However, both are termed ineffective as the DGPC has failed to address the issues faced by the companies whereas Ogra has been working without the member gas a crucial slot for several months. In the absence of the member gas, gas price cannot be determined. The foreign company head insisted that this was not the right time to develop shale gas reserves, which needed environmental regulations and tax laws. The government should rather focus on tight gas, low Btu and onshore and offshore gas by implementing the announced policies, he suggested. Cancellation of projects, like the LNG Mashal, has also discouraged investors. After
the scrapping of Mashal project, the country got a poor response to all tenders, in which only Pakistani parties participated. Law and order situation was another area of concern. There are several blocks in Balochistan that hold considerable hydrocarbon reserves, but they are not being drilled due to the poor security situation. In the refining field, conditions are not encouraging either. Byco expanded its refinery with a capacity of 120,000 barrels per day after approval of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC). But the regulator objected and the company had not been able to start commercial operations. Apart from this, the Abu Dhabi government has put billions of dollars in Khalifa Refinery, but the project has been on hold because of a tussle over the appointment of the head of Pak Arab Refinery (Parco). Experts say that the policy does not treat all countries equally. It benefits specific countries like China, US and Saudi Arabia, but Iran, which is eager to set up a refinery at the Gwadar port with an investment of $8 billion, could not push ahead with the plan because of US pressure on Pakistan. Russia also offered investment in different projects but faced a poor response and even the Russian president postponed a planned visit to Pakistan during the tenure of the previous government. Pakistan wanted to sign only a memorandum of understanding whereas Russia was seeking concrete deals on different projects including the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, an official said.
JAN 2014
12
13 JAN 2014
REPORT
journal entries which detailed his sexual adventurism were difficult to read. He was a serial rapist. But the action which is annotated in his journal - the use of defecation as a unique form of punishment - struck me as incredibly odd behavior. I am a journalist with a medical background. My reading is filtered with knowledge of the biological sciences. Was it possible Martin Bashir missed the real backdrop for his ill-chosen example? "Mastery, Tyranny and Desire: Thomas Thistlewood and His Slaves in the Anglo-Jamaican World" is a scholarly work penned by Trevor Burnard. After reading a portion of the text, I contacted Professor Burnard (University of Melbourne). Question: "I am writing an article regarding Martin Bashir. Undoubtedly, he used references from your work when making remarks against Ms. Palin.... Is it possible that Thomas Thistlewood had a mild form of autism, an autism spectral disorder? A fascination with defecation comes to mind, when considering clinical psychology and defecation." Response, shared with permission: "Thanks for this intriguing email. I have been aware of the curious episode between Bashir and Palin. It is interesting how one's work is used.... I hadn't thought of Thistlewood as being a high-functioning autistic person but it is quite possible.... He loved order, loved recording facts and information and was a man of very regular habits, most of which he recorded - e.g. every time he had sex with a slave, he noted it in his diary. He was a good amateur scientist, whose specialty was taxonomies - recording the weather each day, observing the stars, a skilled gardener. He loved lists of all kinds - he kept a record of all the books he read, all his sexual encounters, lots of descriptions of food and plants - and was pretty unreflexive about what his lists meant. So in this way, without being an expert in any way
Tamera Swofford
The Sinking of Martin Bashir

(1) https://www.diversityinc.com/news/this-isnt-racist-but-sarah-palin-slavery/ (2) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fbJE3RUJMw (3) http://www.amazon.com/Mastery-Tyranny-Desire-Thistlewood-Anglo-Jamaican/dp/0807855251
ne hundred and sixty-nine seconds. It is all the time it took to sink a career in broadcast journalism with MSNBC. What began as an attempt at character assassination ended in a reputation suicide. Martin Bashir launched his vocal cords and the enormity of his personal animus created a perfect storm. Sarah Palin may not be known for the eloquent sophistry which we have come to expect from American political figures. But she does have an uncanny ability to deliver her message in such a simple way as to polarize the extremes. During a November speech at the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition fund-raiser, she had this to say regarding our mounting federal debt: "Our free stuff today is being paid for by taking money from our children and borrowing from China. When that note comes due, and this isn't racist, so yeah, try it and try it anyway, this isn't racist, but it is going to be like slavery when that note is due. Right? We are going to be beholden to a foreign master. Because there is no plan, there is no plan, coming out of Washington, D.C. to stop the incurrence of debt, is there?" The aforementioned reads like it was written by a member of a high school debate team. But Mr. Bashir decided to enter the fray against Mrs. Palin. She makes a convenient target. But we must be careful in journalism. Our primitive thoughts launch a primitive weapon. It is called a boomerang. Did Martin Bashir carry along a bottle of champagne to toast his bon voyage as a daytime host at MSNBC? I cannot confirm that the man was drinking. But since when do we clear the political air by talking about defecation? Mr. Bashir's use of Thomas Thistlewood's bizarre means of punishing a slave sent me in pursuit of information regarding this obscure man. He was a Jamaican plantation owner with ample access to African slaves. He manipulated his small kingdom for profit, pleasure and sadism. Interestingly enough, Thistlewood documented his life and interactions with his slaves with stark and startling honesty. The
on autism, he probably exhibited a lot of the characteristics one would expect from someone on the spectrum.... Your diagnosis is intriguing and interesting and does make sense in regard to various compulsive aspects of Thistlewood's behavior...." In reviewing the videos for Martin v Palin there were several things which stand out. It seems that "submission to a dominating influence" is the definition of slavery suited to the context of Mrs. Palin's speech. There is a distinct economic slavery which is apart from the enslavement of the human body. It can have equally disastrous effects when it comes to freedom of choice. The major decisions of our lives - where to live, the vehicle we drive, schools our children attend - are limited by economic opportunity. So to target a speech for the use of a word which has an expansive meaning is a bit of a stretch. Two things caused Mr. Bashir's primitive weapon's launch to boomerang back on him. His language was scornfully derogatory. "America's resident dunce", "long deceased mind" and "world-class idiot" might work on the playground. But these denunciations do
not work well when directed toward an educated adult audience. Wishing for a form of punishment which involves defecation is a bit too much for civil society. We understand it is a natural act, but one which requires personal hygiene for personal and public health. Those of humane conscience cannot align themselves with even the thought that such a vile and unnatural act can be committed against a woman. It takes a strong historian to write about the history of slavery. These things stand as reminders of the inhumane cruelty which a man can visit on his fellow man. But they also present as shadow and not substance. I am grateful for how far we have journeyed since our Civil War days. There is no place for a modern-day Thomas Thistlewood in America. But there is a place for freedom of expression - with decency.
The writer is a freelance journalist and author of the novel Arsenal. She can be reached at tammyswof@msn.com
JAN 2014
14
15 JAN 2014
PERSPECTIVE
ELECTING TO REJECT
2013) He adds, The court said the NOTA button sought for by the petitioners was similar to the ABSTAIN button provided for in the voting machines in Parliament, the other two being AYES and NOES. For, by pressing the NOTA button, the voter would in effect say he was abstaining from voting since he did not find any of the candidates worthy of his vote. On the other hand, the Election Commission of Pakistan announced that an empty box will be now on the ballot paper-stating: None of the above thereby rejecting all contesting candidates in a constituency pre-election 2013. The news had taken political and media circles by storm. Most within these circles opposed it, whereas the common educated man had hailed the decision. The Headmistress of a leading school wrote to me thus, Brilliant idea..gives the voter greater autonomy. much needed autonomy actually. The excitement to include the slot proved to be short-lived. It was withdrawn. Advantages and disadvantages of this must be carefully evaluated before lauding or rejecting the idea. Those who oppose have declared it as a step against democracy. Is it really? If the voter is allowed the chance of rejecting all-it offers him a broader base than to choose between the Devil and the Black Sea. In a number of cases, one hears people refraining from voting particularly in the urban areas because they do not want to vote for the same electable who have bought in change for the better. Urban areas are marked by low resident interaction, an absence of the baithak (general commuting place for residents) culture. This is not only true of upscale areas but also lower-middle income neighborhoods. However, biradari(clan)system holds sway still in voter decision, particularly in the rural area. They also fill the gap that is left by ideological absence of political parties. In this scenario the right of voters to reject any and every candidate offers an interesting option. An interesting question poses itself with the option. Let us assume 32% of total voters turn out for voting in a given constituency and more than 50% vote for None of the above. This leaves 15% of votes behind to be then distributed between 4 or so candidates. Let us again assume that the candidate with the most votes manages to garner 7% votes- others bagging less. The question that comes to mind is: is the candidate with 7% of total votes cast in his favor legally and morally the winner of the contest?
Yasmeen Aftab Ali
ndia has shown maturity towards implementing a system democratic in spirit with the Supreme Courts epic judgment in September 2013, allowed casting of "negative votes", noting that the provision of rejecting all candidates for a seat can be rejected by the electorate, noting that this option can be provided in existing electronic voting machines (EVMs) without any "additional cost" or change in the technology. A bench headed by Chief Justice P Sathasivam passed the judgment, noting the submission of the Election Commission (EC) that no additional cost, effort or change in design or technology of EVMs is required to include the option of "None Of The Above (NOTA)" in the EVMs. In the existing electoral system, a dissatisfied voter does not turn up for voting and this provides an opportunity for unscrupulous elements to impersonate him/her. But if the option of none of the above candidates is provided, even reluctant voters could turn up at the booth and press the NOTA button in the electronic voting machine, says J. Venkatesan in his article.(The Hindu September 28,
What should the ECP do?

If NOTA merely mean to state the number of people not willing to vote any contesting candidate in power on the ballot paper, they might as well not turn up to cast the votes. What weightage do the votes cast for NOTA signify if at all? Logical follow-up to this scenario should be to call for a by-election with fresh candidates in the above given scenario. This will make contestants more answerable to the people they represent. This will make them more answerable in terms of broken promises to people they represent. It will also make them more answerable to the people in cases where rampant corruption committed, if any. In the final analysis let the people decide whom to vote for. That is the essence of democracy.
This should ideally also mean they cannot be appointed as advisors and chairpersons of organizations by the government. According to the July 14, 2008 edition of the Times of India, the caretaker Bangladeshi regime five years ago had also proposed that an election to a constituency should be cancelled if no votes somehow amounted to 50 per cent or more of the total votes castconsequently leading to a byelection (The News 26th Feb 2013). This decision by ECP had come at a time when according to a survey of the British Council titled Next Generation Goes to The Ballot Box, showed that only one in five young adults expect their economic situation to improve over the next year.An overwhelming 96 percent of those surveyed said the country was heading in the wrong direction and almost a third said they would prefer military rule to democracy.Just 29 percent chose democracy as the best system for Pakistan, with 40 percent favoring sharia, saying it was the best for giving rights and freedom and promoting tolerance. We must nurture democracy with fresh water not just be lip service and implement it in its truest spirit. Pakistan was not the first country to have introduced NOTA. Various countries and territories like Bangladesh, the American state of Nevada, Greece and Columbia etc have incorporated the No Vote or None of the above option on their ballot papers. Canada and Spain etc do not specifically have this provision on their ballot papers, but they do allow their citizens the right to decline to vote or to leave the ballot papers blank in dissent.Former Soviet Union had this provision in 1991 and after its break-up; Russia had kept on giving this privilege to its voters till 2006. Why so much hue and cries on a step that is in the very spirit of democracy and all that is democratic? The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book, A Comparative Analysis of Media and Media Laws in Pakistan. Her Twitter handle is: @yasmeen_9. She can be reached at yasmeenali62@gmail.com
Mary Jane
I am here to remember you, to remind you that you are not alone. You came to this land, which is mine. I could only bring this green branch to place on your grave. You belong to this land, and you belong to us. Merry Christmas, Mary Jane.
Ahsan Raja
Election Commission of Pakistan announced that an empty box will be now on the ballot paperstating: None of the above thereby rejecting all contesting candidates in a constituency preelection 2013
JAN 2014 16
n joining government service, I undertook the responsibility to serve anywhere in or outside Pakistan and thats what I recalled when I learnt that I was being transferred to Balochistan. I knew the solitude in the mountains would make me uneasy as I make a start but soon I would be in love with those very peaks and I was right. The fascination for the sheer beauty of Quetta valley and its surroundings started to grow. The British Empire brought rail to this beautiful area, engineering tunnels and rail infrastructure in Victorian style. The railway station of Kolpur exists at an altitude of 2087 meters. The summit along Kolpur, which is a town and union council of Bolan District, is breath taking. Dozan is a stunning railroad station that you see before Kolpur. The owner of a small grocery store called Radha Mal Sri Chand at Kolpur, Sri Chand and his brother Sanjay gave me company on Eid-ul-Adha, when we enjoyed pakoras and Sanjay brought cold water from the Kolpur Railway station, that had a tinge of iron tank in which it had been stored. Sri Chand believes in the notion of Muslim and Hindu unity and says that the village cannot be all-embracing without them both. Next to Dozan Railway station is Mary Jane tunnel, the second last tunnel in Bolan Pass, which was made by the British Empire in 1894; a replica of English country side railway stations, cutting through huge meandering rocks, paving way for the railways double track out of which one track is meant for runway trains. The platform is survived by steel bench and rock bowl with a device to measure rainfall. Quarters are ready to collapse, half dead vine climbers whining about the obliviousness of time. The tunnel is aptly named windy corner as wind passes with force through this entrance of Bolan Pass all year round. I was intrigued as to why is this tunnel named Mary Jane. The tunnel bears the name of the wife of Irishman F. L. OCallaghan, who first pushed the railway through the Bolan and was responsible for construction of the track here. Rumors are that she came to meet the engineer and passed away due to some unfortunate accident, the cause of which is not recorded in any chronicle or a reliable source. On Christmas day, I was determined to locate her grave. Visit to a local cemetery had earlier revealed that she wasnt laid to rest among her community. Someone remarked that she was laid to rest over the tunnel. I took a green branch and drove to Dozan railway station. Why has sab come here, a levy man asked my driver. He did not baulk when I began mounting the tunnel. I succeeded in climbing these mountains but still couldnt find the grave of Mary Jane. I held the green branch in my hand which was to be laid on her tomb on Christmas morning, my prayer was solitary. When this tunnel was being made, British were approaching Kandahar from Kabul, marching under General Frederick Sleigh Roberts on foot. Mary, on this day when Jesus was born, your family must be celebrating Christmas in England. Somewhere few generations down the line, I wonder if someone would be remembering you. You came here when you were young in days and dreams. Your cherished days had yet to come but death came hunting after you... I am here to remember you, to remind you that you are not alone. You came to this land, which is mine. I could only bring this green branch to place on your grave. You belong to this land, you belong to us. Merry Christmas, Mary Jane. I only have heavy heart and tears for honorable Mary Jane. I weep for Adonis, Adonis is dead. The writer has served as the Commissioner of Makran and Quetta Division, Secretary Agriculture, Food, Cooperatives, fisheries, Mines and Minerals, Balochistan. He is presently serving as Chairman, Prime Ministers Inspection Commission. He can be contacted at rajaahsan47 @yahoo.com
17 JAN 2014
CORRUPTION
BISP: the foiled support!
Waseem Kayani
he recent audit report for 201213 of Benazir Income Support Programme has unearthed massive financial irregularities in the programme to the tune of Rs78 billion, leaving a big question mark on transparency and fairness of the programme. The irregularities include disbursement of huge amount of salaries, allowances, purchases and awarding of several contracts to people of choice by completely violating the rules and regulations. The most visible irregularity during the period is the disbursement of funds without approval of BISP Boards amounting over 74 billion rupees. It is a huge amount and also sufficient enough to challenge the previous PPP-led coalition government claim of complete transparency in the BISP funds. The Auditor General of Pakistan has unearthed embezzlement and irregularities of the funds in the BISP to the tune of Rs146.8 billion in the total funds received by the programme in the last five years. A formal inquiry into the irregularities is yet to begin to fix responsibilities for the offense. Keeping in view the reports of massive irregularities and embezzlement in the funds, the Asian Development Bank has recently asked the BISP management to complete audit of its resources utilised during the PPP-led coalition government. The ADB will release first tranche of $50 million of a $430 million loan after receiving the complete audit reports. The BISP is required through the Act 2010 to have its financial statements audited on an annual basis by the AGP. To date, the BISP has not prepared any annual financial statements. As per agreement with the ADB, the BISP is now required to submit the programs audited financial statements for FY-2013 to the ADB together with an action plan, satisfactory to the bank. To address any deficiencies identified in the audit is a condition for effectiveness, the ADB project document notes. Earlier, the World Bank, ADB, and the Department for International Development teams produced a joint Financial Management Roadmap to address concerns raised in various fiduciary assessments. The major concerns were weak process for reconciliation with Pakistan Post and
meeting on 20 January 2012 indicates that the board had not approved/notified any regulations for disbursement of funds of the programme to the eligible persons and families. It also noted that the board on an adhoc basis approved numerous initiatives for the benefit of BISP beneficiaries for disbursement of funds of the programme. The audit report says the payments made to the beneficiaries without notifying any regulations remains to be irregular.
In response to the audit report, the BISP management said the BISP has formulated its regulations and also started the process of making sub-regulations relating to different operational/functional areas. The management also claimed in response to the audit report that all the payments were made after approval of SOP/policy guidelines from the BISP Board. The reply was, however, not accepted as the management failed to provide notified
regulations under the BISP Act 2010. The Principal Accounting Officer was informed on 04 December 2012, but Departmental Accounts Committee was not held till filing of this report. The audit recommends that regulations may be notified in order to carry out the purposes of the BISP Act, 2010. (Reference: Accountant General of Pakistans Audit Report for 2012-13 pages 27-59)
no requirements for (and practice of) regular reconciliation with the Benazir Debit Card system, delays in releases from the Federal government, weak institutional capacity, and absence of audited annual financial statements. The BISP Act 2010 provides a complete guideline for disbursement of the funds and their subsequent monitoring to ensure transparency. Section 6(1)(d) of the BISP Act 2010 states that the Boards powers and functions shall be to make regulation and approve policies and manuals in order to carry out the purposes of this act. Section 12 of the act states that the funds of the program shall be disbursed to eligible persons and families in a manner approved by the Board and prescribed in the regulations. Section 23(1) of the act states the Board may formulate regulations to carry out different functions under the act. Section 23(2) of act states that without prejudice to the provisions of Sub-Section (1) the regulations shall provide, inter alia financial assistance, payment schedule, grievance
S.No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Particulars Poverty Scorecard System Parliamentarian System Waseela-e-Haq Waseela-e-Rozgar Waseela-e-Sehat Emergency Relief Package IDPs Total FY 2010-11
redressal, social audits and operation of complementary graduation programme. The BISP management made payments during 2010-2012 under Poverty Scorecard System, Parliamentarian System, Waseelae-Haq, Waseela-e-Rozgar, Waseela-e-Sehat, Emergency Relief Package and IDPs. Details are as per Figure-1. The BISP has identified 7.2 million eligible poor families across the country, 23 percent of the total population, on the basis of a nationwide poverty scorecard survey using a proxy means test approach. Out of this 2.4 million eligible poor families are not yet receiving cash transfers because the female head does not hold a CNIC, which is the key eligibility criterion. The audit report, however, reveals that disbursement of funds to all the beneficiaries has been made without approval of the BISP Board that raises a question mark over transparency and fairness of the whole programme. The audit report observed that review of the minutes of the BISP Board meetings from the 7th meeting on 19 October 2010 to 13th
FY 2011-12 38,650,672,039 506,736,000 1,559,252,513 135,558,493 2,557,189,015 24,585,380 0 43,433,993,440 Total (Rupees) 48,310,378,399 16,526,003,928 1,848,002,512 266,802,943 2,747,433,185 4,451,775,860 261,967,725 74,412,364,553
9,659,706,360 16,019,267,928 288,750,000 131,244,450 190,244,170 4,427,190,480 261,967,725 30,978,371,113
Figure-1
JAN 2014
18
19 JAN 2014
PERSPECTIVE
South Asia:
From political trust deficit to energy crises

The water and energy experts from South Asian countries during the panel discussion observed that the region is the least integrated bloc in the world embroiled in inter-state and intra-state political conflicts. Political trust deficit has put a dampener on any efforts for revival of political and economic collaboration, if ever, that has barred countries to understand each others concerns with regard to shared water resources and work jointly to address them. Gopikesh Acharya, research associate at the Nepal Centre for Contemporary Research (NCCR) in Nepal, said that all South Asian countries are riparian pairs. They are linked by great trans-boundary rivers, which are bound by treaties. For instance, India and Pakistan are Indus riparian pairs while India and Bangladesh share the Brahmaputra River, Nepal and India share Koshi, Mahakali and several others. Besides, Pakistan and Afghanistan share nine important rivers including Kabul River. But the trans-boundary water treaties are repeatedly politicized, blocking inter-state or intra-regional cooperation in shared water resources that is critical for overall regional development, he bemoaned during a panel discussion. There is urgent need to liberate common water resources from political grudges and restore, and boost mutual trust between/ among water sharing partners. This will help address water security problems that have become a growing threat to the regional peace and security, he stressed. Acharya said that nine of the major ten rivers in South Asia emerge from China-controlled Tibet. But China has no water-sharing agreements with downstream countries in the region and is reluctant to bi-lateral or regional agreements with downstream countries, he highlighted in disgruntled tone. Gopikesh Acharya stressed, We have to factor China in when we talk about boosting trans-boundary collaboration in water sharing. A.Z, M. Saleh, a senior research associate at the Unnayan Onneshan, a centre for research and action on development in Dhaka, said that Indo-Bangladesh joint River Commissions (November 1972) provides a feel-
Saleem Shaikh
outh Asian collaboration in energy and water sectors remains hostage to political trust deficit among regional countries because of internal and trans-boundary conflicts in the region, experts told a moot Energy and Water Security in South Asia in Islamabad. The moot was held as a part of the 16th Sustainable Development Conference being held in Islamabad (Dec 10-12) under the theme Creating Momentum: Today is Tomorrow and organized by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (Pakistan).
good lesson for other regional countries to manage and use trans-boundary river basins amicably. He recalled that prior to the JRC under which two MoUs and two treaties were signed to address long-standing issues pertaining to the Ganges water sharing; Delhi and Dhaka had fought over issue of trans-boundary rivers, mainly the Ganges. Both countries signed a second treaty of the Ganges water sharing in December 1996 that helped them sort out water related disputes, he highlighted. Professor of Geography at the Kumaon University in Indian state of Uttarkhand, Prakash C. Tiwari, spoke about unprecedented significance of the regional cooperation for integrated water governance in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). Without which, he said, climate change adaptation in the regions water and energy domains is not possible. For, all the regions are equally beset with the identical water and energy problems that have plagued their economies. He told the participants, The HKH region constitutes the headwaters of some of the largest trans-boundary rivers of the planet in South Asia and has the tallest water towers of the world that is source of livelihood for over 1.6 billion populations in the region. Yet it is confronted with the reduced water flows and availability that has hurt hydro power generation. The natural and anthropogenic vulnerabilities the region is confronted with and which have intensified further [because of galloping population, soaring urbanization poor or inadequate climate-resilient infrastructure development and degradation of natural resource base due to unsustainable exploitation of natural resources] call for regional approach by the South Asian countries to address them and work together to build climate resilience, Tiwari believed. But it is not possible as long as the south Asian countries do not rise above their respective political grudges, he alerted. South Asia being heavily populated is fast becoming a water-stressed region that paints a dreadful water availability senarios for the region, pointing towards more intensified intra-state and inter-state conflicts over water. The region is likely to face 50 percent water deficit by 2030, he predicts. Prakash C. Tiwari said that water resource demand in India is expected to double and exceed 1.4 trillion cubic metres by 2050 while Pakistan faces the greatest water crunch with 1000 m3/person water supply, and a fall below the mark would make it a water scarce country. Though Nepal and Bhutan are
comparativley in a better position in this regard, they need improved management to avoid future possible senario of water shortages. Whereas, Bangladesh is already subject to all kinds of downstream hydrological impacts that have intensified because of climatic changes, he elaborated. Tiwari highlighted that climate change provides the best opportunity to foster regional cooperation to cope with common water woes and collaborate experiences with each other to use shrinking water resource more productivity for sustainable socio-economic development in the region. In this regard, regional institutions such as SAARC and the International Centre for Intigrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) need to play more pro-active role in facilitating regional collaboration in water and energy, he highlighted. Given the pressing water and energy woes, the experts argued, the south asian country have no choice but to work together to sort out their common water and energy related problems by helping each other build respective resilience against changing weather patterns and by sharing hydrological information for flood forecasting and early warning; storing water in upstream river basins for flood mitigation and increasing flow in dry seasons, inland water transport and trade; harnessing water resources to generate hydroelectricity; managing watersheds to help increase the quality and quantity of water availability for drinking, irrigation and industrial use; reduce the climate vulnerability to water, food, livelihood and health insecurity in the region. There is strong need for the regional countries to work towards developing national and regional efficient water management systems and share experiences with each other about best applied practices regarding efficient water management and use to abate waste and ensure conservation through integrated watershed management. Besides, they also need to work for creating strong institutional
arrangements, supported by clear regulations and agreements bring the region out of the energy and water crisis, Prakash C. Tiwari from the Kumaon University in Indian stressed. Aisha Azhar, renewable energy expert and assistant professor at the Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute Of Engineering Sciences And Technology in Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, spoke on some policy solutions to enhance diffusion and adoption of renewable energy system (RES) through regional cooperation in Pakistan. She said that Pakistans can get immense benefit from Indias experience and technological advancement in wind energy sector. Initially, Pakistan can ask India to assist the former in manufacturing windmills and setting up the industry for tapping local wind energy potential to offset energy crisis. But this can materialise only if political will in both countries comes into play for the sake of uplift of socio-economic lives of their people that is subject to commitment on either side for cooperation in the wind energy area, Aisha Azhar cautioned. Fareeha Mehmood, senior renewable energy researcher at the SDPI in Islamabad said that thanks to a vast experience in wind energy field, India enjoys a leading position in wind turbine manufacturing that can guarantee excellent efficiency coupled with remarkable features within the wind corridor of Pakistan. However, any joint venture in this field can provide Pakistan an opportunity of unprecedented significance to learn from Indias matchless experience and get technical experts trained by Indian wind energy experts to tap 340,000 MW potential in Pakistan, she believed. The future of South Asian water and energy needs thus seem dependent on political motives and motivators in the longer run.
Saleem Shaikh is climate change and development journalist
JAN 2014
20
21 JAN 2014
REPORT
Pakistan, seen on the receiving end of terrorism is up against wall of negative perception fed by a fairly well-stocked propaganda factory that somehow manages to gloss over its counter terrorism role and project its least flattering, most Janus-faced side.
Afrah Jamal
UAE stepped into the fray (Nov 2011). And later when Turkeys dreams of being the first to bring Expo to the Eastern Mediterranean region fell through, Pak votes went to Dubai in the 2nd& 3rd round. The defamatory editorial had more than 900 heated responses before it was closed for comments. Most were from outraged subscribers, disappointed expats and stunned residents. Some threatened to revoke their subscription. Others suggested suing /firing/ de-friending the editorial staff and paper. Many reportedly went through with it, despite the AED 400 voucher offered with each subscription. The story was picked up by the Wall Street Journal, and carried on Pakistani talk shows. Pak-UAE relationship runs deep, and is not as one sided as GN suggests. From raising
urj Khalifa turns blue, high end resorts flourish a 2020 AED package, fireworks light up the sky and free ice cream was reportedly being handed out to rejoicing subjects. Dubai just made history by winning the rights to host 2020 Expo. It is the first Middle Eastern nation to do so. A few days later congratulatory messages pop up on street corners praising the visionary leadership alongside motivational images of said leadership looking skywards. UAE just turned 42. It finds inventive ways to weave flag colors into everyday life, and the Spirit of the Union into its national tapestry. Emirates are riding on a high these days. Their Expo bid, Connecting Minds, Creating the Future, with its fetching new theme in town has set them on a shiny new trajectory. The controversy generated in the wake has upset its oldest, most trusty ally - Pakistan. Local papers in Pakistan, hint that it helped UAE win. Dubai based daily (Gulf News) insists that it did the opposite. A Gulf News (GN) editorial came on the heels of their victory casting a nasty little spin on Pakistans voting habits after thanking all those who helped secure the win. The word betrayal was traded freely. They went on to question our credibility as allies and casually touched upon what to them seemed to be purely one-sided investment in Pakistans political / economic future. Though Kabul was also called out for being a bad friend, the papers patronizing stance and obvious bias towards Pakistanis cause for concern. By this time every one has heard the sanctioned version where Izmir, was already a strong contender in the initial round with 60 countries cheering from the sidelines. Pakistan already commit to Izmir (Mar 2011) before
the UAE Air-Force, training its pilots and greening the city of Al Ain, to offering the controversial strip of land (Shamsi) and opening the hunting grounds and precious Houbara Bustard come November despite the universal condemnation by conservationists. Pakistan has been there from the very beginning, and UAE, now plays the role of a major investor in the region. Its win-win for both. A baseless attack cannot undo half a century of friendship. The report was challenged by Pakistans (Foreign Office) FO and a strong social media campaign finally prompted a response from GN which maintains that .the Pakistan government, despite its official pledge to the UAE, has voted for another city on the night of November 27. As an independent newspaper, we have the right to question such action and call for a justification, if there were any. It remains unrepentant and no apology was forthcoming. The papers insistence that these comments are directed at Islamabad and not the expat community that helped build their nation is ludicrous. Trends change quickly in Pakistan, it may be dictatorship one season and democracy the next but regardless of the changing fashion, the people and state are not separate entities. Cyber-ville will not let GN, and its platter of half-baked truths off the hook.
Pakistan, seen on the receiving end of terrorism is up against wall of negative perception fed by a fairly well-stocked propaganda factory that somehow manages to gloss over its counter terrorism role and project its least flattering, most Janus-faced side. That the Most Wanted lot either trained here, had roots or hideouts in military cantonments does not help. Elsewhere, the media for all its democratic credentials appears strangely aligned to company policy, as the gulf between the (PakUS) administrations widened, random references to Pakistan started to appear in movies, television dramas, sitcoms with greater frequency and not in a good way. The refusal to retract the insidious commentary raises questions about the source of displeasure.Though Emirates graciously thanked Pakistan for its support, do mischievous headlines demanding answers perhaps point to rumblings of discontent on a state level? If not then did the paper get a welldeserved rap on the knuckles? Given that the official pledge had been given to Turkey, the story has no foundation.But according to a Pakistani daily, our Federal Minister for commerce might have led the UAE emissary to believe otherwise. And that the UAE delegation was reportedly miffed at what to them probably appeared to be a last minute switch.Some worry that papers tow state lines and for them
it is inconceivable that Gulf News risked jeopardizing Pak-UAE strategic partnership on its own. That it continues to propagate the lies is worrisome. Khaleej Times - another leading daily from the Emirates - called out its fellow paper on what passes for fact checking in GN, so not everyone bought the Gulf rhetoric. Islamabad can respond byfiling defamation charges against Gulf News. Since then a clarification was issued from Pakistans side,but no action has been taken against the offending publication. That their rantings went unremarked could also attest to the wonderfully autonomous nature of Gulf media. There are those who credit those hidden hands, in this case the Indian lobby, of masterminding the malicious attack; and while said hands are our go to reason for everything that goes wrong in Pakistan, enlisting a leading newspaper in their discredit Pakistan campaign to launch a war of the words between such close allies without worrying about consequences implies limitless reach. UAE, with its carefully cultivated public image stands on the cusp of greatnesswhile Pakistan, remains on the frontline of terror. One gets to battle its demons and the other has a party to plan. Neither can afford to let mischief mongers come in the way oftheir historically close ties. The writer is a freelance journalist who blogs at http://afrahjamal.blogspot.com/. She can be reached at afrahjh@hotmail.com and on twitter http://twitter.com/afrahjh
A Gulf News (GN) editorial came on the heels of their victory casting a nasty little spin on Pakistans voting habits after thanking all those who helped secure the win. The word betrayal was traded freely.
JAN 2014
22
23 JAN 2014
PERSPECTIVE
The moral diplomacy:
What should the US do?

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
The arrest of Devyani Khobragade, the deputy consul general for India in New York over an alleged accusation of visa fraud of her domestic help has sparked serious diplomatic conflicts between the United States and India, which continue regardless of Secretary of State John Kerrys apologies to India. The accusation is that the domestic help, an employee of the Government of India, has been receiving wages of a little over $3 an hour, the less than the legal minimum wage in the state of New York. There are two principal facets to this case which in recent days has received much attention globally. Firstly, there has been a spotlight over how the middle class and well to do people in India treat their domestic help and secondly, over how the law enforcement in the United States has treated Ms. Khobragade, who was handcuffed, strip searched and even cavity searched before being placed in a detention cell with other female prisoners by
the US Marshals who arrested her. This case certainly opens up a whole host of questions particularly of a moral nature. One such question relates to why would India or anyone appalled by such harsh measures taken by the United States law enforcement agencies not merely consider the rights and well being of a poor and helpless maid in defense of a well to do diplomat? There is no denying that this is an extremely valid point. However, another very valid point cannot and must not be overlooked and ignored. That is the utter brutality and harshness demonstrated by the US law enforcement, not forgetting that India and the United States are two democracies which share a friendly and bilateral relationship. To many Indians and people in
general who fail to comprehend such harsh measures carried out by the American law enforcement entities, this is an incident which has taken them completely by surprise. It is quite incomprehensible why there has been such a needless and hostile act by a friendly partner-country which has caught many off-guard, apparently including the White House and the State Department. So, it would be fair to see the issue from the opposite perspective: how would the United States react if one of its citizens, not to mention a diplomat, were treated in the same manner in a foreign country? Would there not be severe criticism and a literal uproar regarding the rights of the US citizen and how he or she had been mistreated and that too by a friendly nation? In August of 2013, an American diplomat in Kenya killed one person and injured eight others in a road accident. The United States response was to fly the diplomat and his family out of Kenya the very next day citing his diplomatic immunity as protection from prosecution. To focus on diplomatic immunity is one issue. That is not to be said that those not covered by diplomatic immunity should be treated with utter disrespect even before being convicted, at a stage where the accusation still remains an alleged one. Furthermore, this raises some serious questions as to what exactly is the necessity to treat alleged perpetrators with such little human dignity and respect? This incident is clearly reminiscent of the arrest of the ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss Kahn, who was arrested in New York in 2011 over the alleged rape of a hotel maid. That incident had sparked a literal uproar in France about how in the United States, arrests are freely mediatized and how the alleged perpetrators are paraded in front of the cameras in the infamous perp walk. The question is whether in the United States, the law enforcement agencies should be exercising their duties in such irresponsible manners which strip a person of all dignity before even being convicted of any crime? Whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty? Can the policing not function efficiently without the media, the hype and theatrics? Would discretion really be such a bad thing?
Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force, like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action. President George Washington
The writer is an English and French professor and columnist residiing in the USA and France. She can be reached at scballand@gmail.com
JAN 2014
24
25 JAN 2014
ENTERTAINMENT
characteristic of all TV dramas is their focus on interpersonal relationship, especially interpersonal problems. For example, extra marital relationship among the characters in the dramas is very high. Thus, we could speculate that drama viewing might influence viewers marital relations. Marital partners might argue more as a result of viewing dramas. Seeing relationship and marriages dissolve over misunderstandings and inappropriate behaviours may strengthen viewers real world relationships. Some viewers may learn from drama characters mistakes and avoid making similar mistakes in their own lives. Others might adopt strategic steps that drama character used effectively or discard strategies that did not help to solve the problems concerning their own interpersonal relationships. These viewing interpretations happen at an unconscious level. In comparison to interpersonal problems and situations, TV dramas spend less time on social issues which are dominant in the society. However, viewers are better informed about some issues, especially those believed by drama script writers to be more central to womens lives. Some dramas work on a level of empirical realism, in so far as the characters within them are presented as living in situations comparable to those of significant numbers of their audiences. In other cases, the realism need not be of empirical kinds, which work at the emotional level of the audience. Dramas carry different messages and present different social relations. Some show more women in professional occupations while others are not career oriented. Women are stereotyped in dramas, but the image of the modern women has changed. From being to a meek, docile, subservient housewife, she has grown and evolved into a strong individual. She not only excels in her profession but is also an able home-maker. This change in the role of women is partially if not fully perceptible in the dramas shown on the television as yet. TV drama undoubtedly have immense potential to present positive images of contemporary women, a potential similar to that of other forms of media designed for womens service-newspapers, magazines, radio forums and so on. Plays focusing on relationships and family life could easily present more story lines and characters, discussing social issues and problems central to their changing roles. Drama writers have contended that part of their mission is to teach the lesson of life to their viewers. TV dramas are an example of womens literature that supports the status quo regarding womens place in the social order. Womens concern in drama are changing somewhat. Many women leave a family centred world to become an integral part of the work world. Television has emerged as a sharp, double-edged sword which can serve important and significant functional purposes if used carefully and judiciously. The efficacy of television as a means of communication is very high vis--vis women. Television has an important role in shaping and influencing their views, opinions and attitude. It has become the most persuasive and pervasive means of information diffusion in society. The medium of television plays a very significant role in bringing about change among people. The part played by television as a galvanizer in the spectrum of change cannot be overlooked or ignored. The need of the hour is to harness its potential in the right direction or rather than let it be a trite reflection of societys lowest common denominator. The writer works as a Consultant Forensic Psychiatrist with The HUNTERCOMBE Group UK
CONTEMPORARY TV DRAMA
Dramas carry different messages and present different social relations. Some show more women in professional occupations while others are not career oriented. Women are stereotyped in dramas, but the image of the modern women has changed. From being to a meek, docile, subservient housewife, she has grown and evolved into a strong individual.
JAN 2014 26
Undeniably Powerful:
Dr Fawad Kaiser
he word play derives from a literal translation of the Latin word ludus, which means recreation or play. We have inherited much from the influence of the Roman theatre. Our dramas today still display the same plots and humour as the Romans did in ancient times. Our situational comedies are a great example of how we still use the same format of entertainment today. Especially in the hard times that we are facing, we look for the forms of entertainment that will take our minds off the hardships and stress of our lives. We can lose ourselves in a comedy, laugh, and experience joy, even if its only for half an hour during your favourite television show. Television plays are part of the everyday lives of their viewers. They have successfully been able to televise the everyday happenings and also form a part of the cultural exchange which goes on in both the home and the work place. Fiction is weaved with events in the real world both those directly experienced by the viewers and those which are reported in the media. The popularity of TV drama rests on its undemanding nature and its preoccupation with everyday concerns. This could perhaps be the reason responsible for its immense popularity as a genre of television programming. In families in which the gender roles are largely traditional, television appears to serve to reinforce such gender roles. In this way television certainly plays a role in the construction of gender roles. All viewers have several options regarding gender images: to accept them, to disregard them, to interpret them in their own way; and to reject. The basic question to be addressed is the effect of dramas on the behaviour of the viewer and how these dramas contribute to viewers concept of reality that flow logically from the kinds of content of the TV dramas. Contemporary drama telecasted from satellite channels, mostly have female protagonists, who is traditional, yet at the same time independent and strong. Most of the TV dramas focus on issues, related to women because TV drama, since its inception were primarily targeted at women and the majority of the audience comprised of women. A prominent and striking
27 JAN 2014
ECONOMY
It is estimated that All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) would get one trillion rupees benefit annually, after the grant of GSP plus status. It is hoped that GSP Plus scheme would not only further strengthen trade relations with the EU member countries but would also significantly help strengthen Pakistans economy through greater trade, generation of economic opportunities and creation of more jobs for the people. Textile is the backbone of Pakistans economy in terms of foreign reserves generation and job creation. According to financial ministry in the outgoing fiscal year (FY13), textile contributed 53 percent to Pakistans total exports of $24.6 billion. The sub-textile sectors of dishcloth, duster, knitted tracksuitsmaking units, weaving industry, towel, gloves and socks-making units will benefit from the grant of GSP+ status. According to investment board of Pakistan the textile exports in the first three months (July to September) of the current fiscal year through next June increased to $3.58 billion, up 9 percent year-on-year. Textile industry is of the opinion that overall textile sector is likely to benefit, but most of the benefit will be bagged by valueadded chain i.e. 32 percent revenues originating from the weaving and garments segments. There will be capacity expansions in stitching, processing and weaving. Knitted and woven apparel export is expected to grow by $285 million annually after GSP Plus status implementation. The selected product lines amount to almost 950 million euros in import value, accounting for about 27 percent of the EU imports from Pakistan. The total imports amount to 3.35 billion euros. Another aspect of this facility is that the prime material of textile products is cotton. So, any synergy in textile sector will be trickled down to the cotton growing area. EU remains Pakistans largest trading partner after USA receives 25 percent of Pakistans exports and provides 10 percent of Pakistans imports Overall trade volume between EU and Pakistan is $10.9 billion with trade surplus of $1.78 billion for Pakistan. Pakistan exported mainly textile and leather products to EU and imported mechanical and electrical machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical products. The bad governance, lack of quality assessment and infrastructure for quality exports, the potential of exports to EU is not optimized. According to the EU statistics, the total GSP+ EU trade is 275 billion euros, or $641 billion. Pakistans current share in this trade is only 4.07 billion euros ($9.8 billion), which is 1.48 percent of the total trade. Under the GSP Plus regime, a country graduates from this status after its share in this particular trade exceeds two percent. It means that Pakistan can increase its exports to the EU by up to 1.43 billion euros, or $3.44 billion. The industrialists did made some important suggestions in regards to GSP+: They suggested that the government should prepare a comprehensive strategy for the textile sector to ensure the country benefits from the grant of GSP status, which is most essential under the given circumstances. Promotion of self-sustainable special economic zone for the purpose of producing exportable commodities on 24 hours basis. Uninterrupted supply of electricity, gas
GSP+ Status; the promised goods!

be exempted from the general rules. The GSP+ would generate more than one million new jobs in the country. The formal approval of the EU Parliament next month will allow almost 20 percent of Pakistani exports to enter the EU market at zero tariff and 70 percent at preferential rates. EU trade concessions will benefit the countrys largest manufacturer and exporter, the textile and clothing industry the most. It will enable the products to compete with those of regional rivals like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which already have dutyfree access to the blocs market. Textile manufacturers and exporters of Pakistan will now have access to 27 European countries without having to pay duties. Textile exports had been declining in Pakistan as manufacturers and exporters were finding it hard to compete with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh who already had duty-free access to European markets. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif says the GSP Plus status to Pakistan shows confidence of the international markets in the excellent quality of its products.
Different Sectors
Engineering good
Sectors/Sub- Details
Engineering manufactures should explore the ceiling fan market in the EU where its usage is increasing after the climate change. There is a huge potential to export automotive parts, fabricated engineering products and steel casting. We have not taken advantage of huge EU food market because of the slackness on the part of our food processors to obtain necessary certifications. Pakistan exports substantial quantity of its aromatic rice to EU. Fish export to the EU has recently been allowed from Pakistan. Need to further enhance necessary infrastructure and technology. Pakistan is only second country which has very rich qualitative green marble which needs to be explored in the EU after the grant of GSP+ status Neglected sectors. Pakistani mangos and oranges are very popular in the EU. It is very famous in the EU-27 which needs to be further enhanced in the days to come.
T
JAN 2014
Tausif Ur Rehman
he European Parliament has granted GSP+ (Generalized Scheme of Preferences) status to Pakistan. It is a victory of commercial diplomacy for Pakistan with immense socio-economic multiplier effects. The GSP+ provides concessions on about 6,000 tariff lines, while Pakistan currently has around 150 tariff lines. Four hundred and six members of the European Parliament supported the move while 186 votes went against it. The EUs GSP allows developing country exporters to pay lower duties on their exports to the EU. This gives them vital access to EU markets and contributes to their economic growth. After the status, Pakistani exports would
Food Processors
Agriculture goods Fishery
Green Marbles
and all other important input of the production process Better law and order situation in order to ensure reliability and delivery of orders well on time. Small units of finished products (textile buying houses and garment producers), which have been shifted from Pakistan to Bangladesh and Malaysia may return to Pakistan after this development Supply of easy and smooth supply of credit facilities from the banks Availability of infrastructure Pakistani exports to EU are not diversified. Seven or less items make up at least 75 percent of Pakistans exports to EU, and value less than 2 percent. The textile industry contributes 60 percent of the countrys total exports. Last year, Pakistan exported around $13 billion worth of textile products. The country mainly exports textiles and clothing products to the EU, accounting for over 60 percent of the total Pakistani exports to the EU, followed by leather products, which account for 13percent Even so, the country ranks only 52nd of the EUs trading partners despite being the worlds sixth-largest nation. According to the Economist, London Chinas share in global textile has been reduced by $30 billion to $270 billion due to rising cost of production in the country. This decline of Chinas share in the global textile and clothing trade coupled with the anticipated GSP Plus status for Pakistan by the EU in early 2014 can most certainly prove to be a good opportunity for Pakistans textile industry. It is suggested to take maximum benefits of the scheme the textile manufacturers should be switched to garment making and value-addition commodities. Less energy is consumed by garment industry with a lot of jobs, particularly for women. It would not only help overcome job problems but also empower women. There is a need for diversification in agro food processing, pharmaceutical and leather garments as well in order to make the difference at the international markets after the grant of GSP+ status.
Fruits & Vegetables Furniture and wood work
The writer is a senior Islamabad-based journalist
28
29 JAN 2014
ECONOMY
Multiplier effects
Salient Features
phase more than 3.5 million young people will be benefited from the scheme. Loans ranging from Rs. 0.5 to 2.0 million with average loan size of Rs 1.25 million would be provided in accordance with rules and regulations of the lending banks under the strict supervision of the State Bank of Pakistan. The debt-equity ratio for these schemes will be 90:10 with tenure of seven years with one year grace period. Condition of genuine national identity card and counter verification from the NADRA is an effective policy check against all fraudulent candidates who have cheated the government in the past. Moreover, it is a job generation scheme. It is the first step towards women empowerment as well. About 50 percent of the loans are allocated for female youth. Rs100 billion has been allocated for the program during the current financial year and over 100,000 unemployed young people will receive loans in the first phase through a ballot. It is a merit based scheme in which the elements of corporate governance would be enacted. An effective monitoring mechanism has been put in place to keep a check on the loan award process so that merit is ensured. Elements of total transparency, accountability, free and fair access and youth friendly loan scheme have been initiated not seeking extra political mileage, affiliation and electorate supremacy. Political blackmailing, state interference or financial grabbing has been stopped and a genuine opportunity has been provided to all the youth of the country to take advantage from the scheme. It is an effective tool to reduce ratios of poverty and discrimination in the country. Globally, SMEs are considered the back bone of USA Japan and German economy. It is hoped that it would boost Small and Medium Enterprise (SMEs) sector in the country. The last but not the least, it is giant leap towards
Business Youth Loan Scheme All Pakistanis between 21 to 45 years 50 percent of loans will go to women borrowers All Pakistan, preferably limited and unserved areas Rs.100 billion 55 15 percent but the government will provide it on subsidized 8 percent Severe conditions of three checks along with his/her wealth statement has been removed to make it more convenient and easy for the youth Within 8 years
during the election campaign. The chairperson of the prime ministers Youth Business Loans scheme, Maryam Nawaz, says the aim was to convert young dependents into providers. She lauded efforts of the PML-N government to successfully launch six youth welfare programs despite the financial crunch. Touching upon eligibility criteria for applicants, Maryam said three conditions must be met: an applicant must be a Pakistani, possess a valid
Eligibility criteria Women Empowerment Geographical spread Loan Limit Projects enlisted Subsidized Rate of Mark-up
Guarantor Payment Schedule
P
JAN 2014
Shazia Mehmood Khan
rime Minister of Pakistan Mian Nawaz Sharif launched a Youth Business Loan Scheme to help young people to initiate their own businesses. The scheme shows no open ended results yet has socio-economic multiplier effects. It is a development and youth oriented scheme as Pakistan has more than 110 million youth in the country which could be turned into strategic assets instead of liabilities as by Japanese and Korean in the
past. It has opened new vistas for the youth to become self-reliant. It is hoped that dreams of sustainable development would be achieved through the help and genuine utilization of the recently announced Youth Business Loan Scheme. According to Finance Ministry of Pakistan, more than 6.1 million forms have been downloaded and approximately 3.5 million young people have submitted their loan applications which show its immense popularity. Despite opposition rhetoric, the youth business loan scheme is winning the hearts and souls of the young people of the country. It is estimated that about 110 million people would be hailing from the Business Youth Loan Scheme throughout the country. In the first
self-reliance. The loan scheme is designed to provide subsidized financing at eight percent mark-up per annum for 100,000 beneficiaries through National Bank of Pakistan and First Women Bank Limited. The total mark-up rate would be 15 percent but the government would pay the remaining seven percent on behalf of applicants. Those falling in the age group of 21 and 45 years are eligible to apply for loans from Rs.100, 000 to Rs.2 million. Small business loans with tenure of up to seven years plus one year grace period and a debt-equity ratio of 90:10 would be disbursed across the country, including four provinces, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Federally Administered Tribal Areas. SMEDA has been tasked with an advisory role in the implementation of this scheme. According to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif the earlier loans were available to the rich only but now his government had initiated the revolutionary scheme to provide loans to the youth. He regrets that no previous government had bothered to look after 110 million youth of the country and it was only the PMLN-led government that took the decision to bring them into national mainstream. The prime minister says that small and medium enterprises played a key role in national economies of Korea and Malaysia, and hopes he would be able to replicate the same in Pakistan by launching the youth business scheme. The prime minister is of the view that loans would be extended to the youth purely on merit through ballot and there would be no discretionary quota for anyone. The Youth Business Loans initiative is the governments delivery of a promise made
computerized national identity card (CNIC) and must have a guarantor. She also says that forms of the Youth Business Loans scheme would be available and would be issued free of charge at special counters set up at banks as well as Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) offices. According to Maryam Nawaz 55 project pre-feasibilities have been prepared and are available on the SMEDA website. However, if the applicant has his/her own business plan, it will be acceptable for participation in the award process. The National Bank of Pakistan and the First Womens Bank have been directed to ensure transparency and merit. The above diagram shows that six schemes would tremendously contribute towards the diversified capacity-building of our youth so as to help them become builders of a strong, prosperous Pakistan in the days to come.The Youth Business Loan Scheme is based on vision and inspiration which can take off in full swing and yield the socio-economic multiplier effects which mean economic benefits and confident, invigorated youth. It is a capacity building measure, an anti-poverty measure, an effective tool to fight against unemployment and gender discrimination that can make several young dreams come true. The writer is a corporate lawyer and a former legal advisor to All Missionery Schools of Pakistan
30
31 JAN 2014
REPORT
Not a dead horse

the construction of the dam. PPP lawmakers termed it like flogging a dead horse. It goes without saying that in a power strived country like Pakistan, an issue as significant as Kalabagh dam, with its so many implications of energy and water, can never be a dead horse. Well, some can wish like that, but in reality it cant be.Its like trying to end the menace of terrorism through NA resolutions. Despite PPPs try to wash away the issue in a quasi-democratic manner, the issue has come to surface time and again in the subsequent years. In the light of countrys ongoing power crisis and the looming water crisis, there is a dire need to give this issueanother look and find out whether or not is it workable. At first the issue must not have been politicized and like other major dams, Tarbela and Mangla, it should have been constructed in a proper manner. But that was not to happen and with the fall of Ayub, Pakistan saw the voices that were against the dam grow stronger with time. Despite vows to build the dam, ZA Bhutto was not able to fulfill his promise. The last serious effort to build the dam was made by Pervez Musharraf in 2004, but his announcement was met by severe criticism by all the Sindhi and Pakhtun nationalist as well as PPP, MQM, ANP and many others. And soon after coming to power, PPP tried to bury the issue with the support of its allies and anti-KBD parties like ANP, MQM, PML-Q by passing a resolution in National Assembly. The issue was never buried however. With the emergence of Nawaz Sharif led Pakistan Muslim League as countrys largest political party after the May polls, many hoped that the issue might have another life. The reason is simple, being the Punjab-based party, PML-N has been vociferous supporter of the dam and believes that it is vital to countrys power and irrigation needs. His partys immense lead in the national assembly and its stakes in two
I
JAN 2014
Usaf Malik
t seems that the issue of Kalabagh Dam will never die in this country. Despite 5 decades of politicking and 5 years since its shelving by the PPP-led govt, the voices of its construction by its supporters and the immediate outcry by its opponents can still be heard, and quite frequently, in the Parliament. As recently as 18thof December, the lawmakers had a heated debate on the issue over a remark by Pakistan Tehreeke-Insaaf leader Imran Khan demanding
provinces, i.e. Punjab and Balochistan give Nawaz Sharif a unique position regarding this issue. If the party shows seriousness in bringing alive the issue, there is a great chance of getting an amazingly great support. Punjab was, is and will always be in favor of constructing this dam. It is the only province that has passed resolutions in support of the project while all the three others have opposed it. However, being the countrys major contributor in agriculture, its demand must be taken more seriously. Irrespective of which party is in power, the lawmakers will always give a green signal to the dam. Balochistan is also against the construction of the dam but its stance is the lightest of all the three other than Punjab as the dam, if built, would have no direct impact on the province or its water share. The province mere objection is that the dam would deepen the sense of depravity in the smaller provinces. With PML-Ns being the second largest party in the provincial assembly and the controller of the government, there is little chancefor any move that is initiated to generate support for the dam failing. So its 2-0. Then comes the Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa, the second staunchest opponent of the dam. Its the province of the ANPs Abdul Wali Khan who many see as the sole person, who spearheaded the hate campaign against the project. The province has reservations regarding royalty of the electricity producing turbine that are just 500 meters out of the provincial land and which, it believes, will give monopoly to Punjab despite the Dam being built in KP. Another issue has been a concern that the beautiful city of Nowshehra will either submerge into the Dam or will be lost to water-logging and salinity. Despite all these concerns, true or not, KP has a voice that can be termed as the loudest support to the cause. Thats the very voice of Imran Khan. The PTIs leader has been propagating the cause of the dam since before the elections and continues to favor it in the face of severe criticism by ANP and other nationalists. Thats the place which can turn out to be the originator of the resolution demanding construction of the dam, in case anybody wants it. IK has a towering personality and his words can be used to garner support
for the dam. ANP has lost its popularity while dams supporters like PML-N and JUI-F have a fair share in provincial legislative, hereby meaning that IK can simply pass a resolution if that is exactly the starting point needed to kickstart the process. Imran has done it recently with his brave anti-polio drive and he can repeat it for an even larger cause. In short, KP is conquerable too. In last comes the province of Sindh. All of the Sindhis have been against the dam no matter which party they belonged to. It has been a unanimous NO in Sindh just like it has been a unanimous YES in Punjab. Starting from national level party like PPP to Karachi based MQM, all have been the opponents. That is where the any move in favor of KBD will be really tested. So with so many negatives lets find out if there is any plus. Yes there is. Its not as clear as the IK in KP, but still its quite huge and bright if only comparatively. Its PPP; the very party which wanted to end the issue for good. Given the fact that PPP was almost wiped out of Punjab in the May elections, this seems to be the partys only ticket to grab popularity in Punjab. PPP acted like a Sindhi nationalist party in 2008 when it shelved the plan in its bid to save the federation. A wiser way should have been anational debate about the pros and cons of the project by the dam building experts at a national commission followed by the resolution. So I guess, this is the time for PPP to reconsider its stance
or at least re-tune its frequency. In past President Zardari showed immense maturity in dealing with many matters like joining hands with his foes including his arch rivals for strengthening of democracy. So it is quite possible that Mian Sahib can convince Pakistan Peoples Party to at least reduce their criticism. If we could exchange MrZardari with Mr Nawaz Sharif the chance would grow manifold. But unfortunately we cant. Other than PPP, MQM has a stance that the dam should be only built with consensus. Hence a growing support of the dam and also the fierce rivalry of PTI would help MQM mould its stance. So we can say, though we cant win in Sindhwe can atleast significantly reduce the margin of defeat. In all, it looks quite possible for the government to bring this issue to life again before its too late. That can only happen if Mian Sahib and team show determination and wisdom to solve this issue. With 3600 MW of power, estimated annual agricultural output of 10 billion dollars and the least time required for completion as compared to any other major project, this dam is the cornerstone for countrys economy. Its a matter of survival for Pakistan. So we need to act fast or loose. Just like PTI leader JavedHashmi said in NA the other day, A time would come when people of Sindh would also demand construction of Kalabagh dam, but then it would be too late. The Writer is an Islamabad based Freelance Journalist and he tweets @ usaf_malik.
32
33 JAN 2014
WORLD POLITICS
A message of prosperity from
Prospective Joint Ventures & Details Investments

Pakistan badly needs FDIs in the field of energy and both countries could start joint ventures in the sectors of renewables especially wind and solar energy. Turkey has comparative advantage in the field of transportation and communication means. Lahore MetroBus Project is the prime example of it. Pakistan needs Turkish investment and expertise to flourish in transportation sector which would be winwin situation for both the countries. Pakistans needs Turkish blessings to prepare its Lahore-Karachi MotorWay projects. After the grant of GSP+ status, both countries must excel in the diverse fields of textile production. Pakistans Railways badly needs Turkish expertise for the sustained operations. Mutual cooperation in the fields of food processing, dairy development and halal food would be game changer for both the countries. Mutual cooperation in information technology would open new avenues of cooperation. Pakistan has vast reservoirs of shale gas which needs to be explored and tapped with the help of Turkey.
Growth Rates (annual average)
Energy
Turkey
Singing of MOUs Details
Turkey will provide technology, expertise and training to tackle disasters and their aftereffects. Turkey will provide essential training and expertise in the diverse fields of sports Pakistan Railways and Turkish Logistics Organization inked MOUs to extend expertise (PSQCA) and Turkish Standard Institution signed a MOUs for further enhancing of mutual cooperation Disaster Management Sports Cooperation
Source: TURKSTAT, Under secretariat of Treasury According to World Bank Turkey has the worlds 16th largest nominal GDP, and 15th largest GDP by PPP. It is a founding member of the OECD (1961) and the G-20 major economies (1999). Since December 31, 1995, Turkey is also a part of the EU Customs Union. While many economies have been unable to recover from the recent global financial recession, the Turkish economy progressed by 9.2 percent in 2010, and 8.5 percent in 2011, thus standing out as the fastest growing economy in Europe, and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Corporate governance is at its best throughout Turkey. Its government has already initiated many effective anti-corruption measures at every level from horizontally and vertically. Gradual economic liberalization, prudent drive of privatization, friendly tax reforms and incentives along with business friendly environment has revolutionized its sinking economy. More than $150 billion exports is the example of its robust economy. Now, Turkey the pride of Islamic World is on the path of greater socio-economic prosperity.
Transport
Mehmood Ul Hassan
Pakistans Railways
ost recently, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Turkey, H.E Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Pakistan. He was accompanied by a high level delegation including Minister of Economy and the Minister of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communication. A large number of prominent entrepreneurs and industrialists from leading private Turkish companies in the sectors of energy, construction, urban development and municipal services, public transport etc. accompanied Prime Minister Erdogan for participation in the Pakistan-Turkey Business Forum 2013. Both the prime ministers termed the visit as comprehensive review of bilateral relations. Pakistan and Turkey being the strategic partners pledged to intensify cooperation in energy, trade, urban development, infrastructure and housing sectors besides inking agreement to operationalize the Islamabad-TehranIstanbul ECO Container Train. It is hoped that regular operations of the train would not only strengthen connectivity but it also had the potential to harness greater economic integration between the region and beyond in the days to come. During the visit, three MoUs and one Cooperation Protocol were signed between Pakistan and Turkey.
Pakistan Standard Quality Control Authority
Both prime minister also agreed to follow up implementation of decisions taken at the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council Forum; conclude Pakistan-Turkey Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) by the first half of 2014; facilitate investments by the private sector in both countries. Pakistan would especially encourage Turkish private sector for investments in the key sectors of energy, especially coal, hydroelectric and wind, infrastructure including motorways, roads and airports, low-cost housing and urban development & municipal services like public transport and solid waste management. Pakistan would also encourage Turkish state and private banks to open branches in Pakistan. Turkey ensured regular operations of Istanbul-Islamabad Container train for enhanced on-land connectivity between Pakistan and Turkey; further strengthen our existing cooperation and partnership in security and counter-terrorism related issues; further deepen our defense cooperation through exploring the possibility of joint defense production and allied Research
and Development; learn from each others best practices in skill development and vocational training programs. Current trade volume between Pakistan and Turkey hovers around $US 83 million, which did not manifest the actual trade potential existed between the two countries. Both countries decided to increase the bilateral trade volume up to $US2 billion in 20142015 through greater economic integration, exchange of business delegates, investments and joint ventures. The recent visit of Turkish prime minister along with more than 39 private companies opened a new trade chapter between the two brotherly countries. Turkey macro-economy is stable and strong. It has been on the path of a sustainable economic development which is now a rarity in the ongoing global economic crisis and financial crunch. It is making Turkey one of the worlds newly industrialized countries. Now Turkey is among the worlds leading producers of agricultural products; textiles; motor vehicles, ships and other transportation equipment; construction materials; consumer electronics and home appliances.
Infrastructure
Textile
The Turkish Stock Market and credit rating agencies have responded positively. According to The Economist, share prices in Turkey nearly doubled during the ongoing global economic and financial crisis. International credit rating agency Moody (2010) upgraded Turkeys rating for its immense stability and sustainability in the economy. Fitch upgraded (2012) its credit rating to investment grade (long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) was upgraded to BBB- (from BB+) and long-term local currency IDR was upgraded to BBB (from BB+)) after an 18year gap. Once again Moody (2013) upgraded its credit rating. Emerging geo-political and geo-strategic trends in the region and the world has already forced both the countries to prepare a common strategy in order to meet the different challenges which are given below as: NATOs withdrawal from Afghanistan (Afghanistan-Pakistan-Turkey Trilateral Forum is the ideal forum to bring peace in the region) Peace process between Iran and the Western Countries including US Shift in US foreign policy towards India and PakistanFurther strengthening of military cooperation (9th High Level Military Dialogue Group suggested to have joint venture for T-129 Combat Copter between the two countries)
Automobile
Military Software cooperation

Water technological cooperation since Turkish has comparative advantage and Pakistan is water deficit country: Expansion of airports and infrastructure etc. Mono Railways project on Lahore canals Construction of low-cost housing projects A large number of MOUs and agreements have been signed. Now it the time of a strong political will and sharing of experiences, expertise in order to materialize activities in the fields of education, economy, security, constabulary, municipalism, renewable energy and defense.
Agriculture & Sub Sectors
Rate Projections Growth (%)
Information Technology
Oil & gas exploration
Source: IMF & World Bank (2013) Rigorous institutionalization of economic, banking and financial reforms has transformed
Turkish economy one of leading economy in the region and at globe. A few years ago, the global economic recession did not put any negative impact on Turkish economy and now Turkey is one of the fastest developing countries, as its GDP growth rate remained at four percent during first quarter of the current year. Turkey is one of the ideal destinations in terms of foreign direct investment (FDIs). Healthy combination of public-private sector put the Turkey on the road to greater industrialization, diversification of economy, energy resources, and last but not the least, widespread of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the country.
The writer is a research scholar, specializes in geo-political issues of the GCC, CIs and South East Asia. He has keen interests incross cultural dialogue and conflict resolution
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Annual awards & New Year celebrations 2014
Creating Momentum:
Today is Tomorrow
administration involved in the implementation of MDGs needed to be monitored and held accountable. Their performance should be linked with clear performance indicators. The development partners and the global community should be reminded of their promise towards fulfilling the MDG goal focusing on building global partnerships. The developed countries must honour their commitments in the MDGs process and should contribute towards foreign assistance, the committed portfolio of investments. Experts in the session on Alternate Dispute Resolution (ADR) and access to justice argued for the need for such mechanisms so as to prevent various types of conflict, including the persistent militancy problem in Pakistan. Speaking at the conference, MrTCA Raghavan, Indian HighCommissioner to Pakistan said that India and Pakistan face similar challenges and there is need tojointly address them. He also emphasized that the trade for peaceagenda in South Asia requires immediate attention and should be takenforward by establishing a connected infrastructure between member states. Minister for Commerce and Textile Industry Engr. KhurramDastgir Khan advocated the need for closer trade links in various sectors, including textiles, with the neighboring country, asserting that even a 10 percent share in Indian market would boost the local economy. Dastgir Khan said there needs to be established a non-discriminatory access to both the ountries economies, stating that trade between the countries will create inter-dependency which would ultimately lead to peace. However, he expressed concern over the fact that several stakeholders in the country were not in favor of the liberalizing trade regime with India. Dr Abid QaiyumSuleri, the Executive Director of SDPI presented a summary of the three-day proceedings, discussing eye-opening findings such as satisfaction with social service delivery in conflict-prone areas, which is surprisingly high with little resistance to intervention. The conference concluded with a renewed resolve towards greater regional co-operation in South Asia. The conference brought together policy and practice communities to interact and recommend interventions and present workable solutions to emerging challenges in South Asia.
f the 2015 deadline for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is anything to go by, all of South Asian countries are falling woefully short on most of the targets set therein. It is not only the failure of developing world, but also of the developed world which had promised to forge development partnership and provide development support under MDG 8. Lack of regional integration in areas like economy and environment means that each of the eight countries in the region continues to suffer the financial and physical consequences of inaction in isolation. And the time to act has been passingfast. In an effort to advocate the dire and urgent need for bringing about much needed changes within each country of the South Asia region, the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) organized an exclusive conference titled "Creating Momentum: Today is Tomorrow" held in Islamabad on December 11 7 12 2013. In this Conference, researchers, academicians, scientists, policy makers and experts from different fields made policy interventions and presented workable solutions to the emerging challenges discussed above. Experts also stressed that the civil
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Monthly Economic Affairs January, 2014

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Monthly Economic Affairs January, 2014

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Special Edition

Volume-III, Issue-I JANUARY 2014

The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline

Pak shale oil reserves at 9.1billion barrels

8,900MW nuclear power generation planned

Investment environment fraught with risks

The sinking of Martin Bashir

Prospects of shale gas revolution in Pakistan

BISP: the foiled support

War of the Words

What should the US do?

GSP + status; the promised goods!

The Iran-Pakistan pipeline

The writer is a Islamabad-based journalist. He can be reached at gondal.sajid@gmail.com

JAN 2014 DEC 2013

JAN 2014 DEC 2013

PSO continues market dominance

Ahmed Pervez janjua MD PSO

Pak shale oil reserves at 9.1billion barrels

Pakistans energy security via shale gas revolution

Time to buy PSO shares

SSGC to facilitate consumers with e-payments facility

8,900MW nuclear power generation planned

Oil and gas: Investment environment fraught with risks

The Sinking of Martin Bashir

Yasmeen Aftab Ali

What should the ECP do?

BISP: the foiled support!

9,659,706,360 16,019,267,928 288,750,000 131,244,450 190,244,170 4,427,190,480 261,967,725 30,978,371,113

From political trust deficit to energy crises

Saleem Shaikh is climate change and development journalist

The moral diplomacy:

What should the US do?

GSP+ Status; the promised goods!

Agriculture goods Fishery

Fruits & Vegetables Furniture and wood work

The writer is a senior Islamabad-based journalist

Guarantor Payment Schedule

Shazia Mehmood Khan

Not a dead horse

A message of prosperity from

Prospective Joint Ventures & Details Investments

Growth Rates (annual average)

Pakistan Standard Quality Control Authority

Military Software cooperation

Agriculture & Sub Sectors

Rate Projections Growth (%)

Oil & gas exploration

Annual awards & New Year celebrations 2014

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