Empirical problem: the business cycle / business cycle

Empirical problem: the business cycle / business cycle

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Business cycle theory would only be a concern in many people because they believe in the existence of the business cycle / business cycle simply. This belief, not so old. In the 19th century, it was thought that it is not the business cycle are not think it's cycle, come interrupt the smooth development of the economy simply, a sudden only in "crisis". I started to believe when it comes in later years, economists also non-economists as well, such a crisis will occur on a regular basis, it came to analysis and the interval, the relationship between economic structural change. Of course, the economic cycle of all I'm not moving at the same scale. The following classification, Schumpeter 's what (1939) is made-up, but to classify (in the distance between the vertex and vertex or valley, the valley that is) by some period of such period: Seasonal circulation - year Period chitin / chitin wave - 3 years Juglar cycle / Juglar cycle - 9-10 years Kuznets cycle / Kuznets cycle - 15-20 years Kondratieff cycle / Kondratieff cycle - 48-60 years Schumpeter also, I was named the period of "4 phase". Economic boom, recession, recession, recovery. For the first time from the middle, the economic boom of the upswing, it lasts until the vertex. Recession, to return to the place of the original down from the top. Recession to bottom from there. Recovery, but to come back from rock bottom in the middle. From the middle, and into the next boom period thereafter, thus four-phase of the next cycle begins. In a sense, nor not said to be undergoing 4 phases were this any period of any period - otherwise, the vertical movement is no longer be called a "cycle". Belief theorist of the business cycle / business cycle is something that economy, but to experience a wave of this economic activity for some reason. However, what's that, what is the up-and-down motion in this economy frankly it has been the seed of an imaginative many hassles.

http://cruel.org/econthought/essays/cycle/empirical.html[20-01-2014 19:30:01]

Empirical problem: the business cycle / business cycle

As with the business cycle / business cycle theorists of all of the past, we will also keep down the facts empirical some. More than anything, looking at the empirical evidence first, the price level touched greatly throughout the 19th century, but production did not move up and down so much. Therefore be based on the definition of the vertical movement of the price level exactly, initial analysis of "circulation / cycle" is was not for the vertical movement of the output. However In the 20th century, prices continued to rise constantly, except for a few exceptions. You can change prices, of course, but only touched the center of the upward trend as a whole. But the production, it was moved up and down significantly in the 20th century - was set to "cycle / circulation" Thus was the movement of production. Production is reduced in the recession and economic downturn. The boom and recovery, production increases. Thus, even to define as a change in production or "cycle / circulation" and "crisis", It's a fairly recent phenomenon. Second, Wesley C. Mitchell spent on measurement and analysis of the business cycle / business cycle a substantial part of his life. Therefore, Mitchell NBER 's has maintained a historical record of the business cycle / business cycle, which is the most widely accepted in the United States also would be of course. If you want to know the point of view about the business cycle / business cycle in the United States of the past century, NBER is recording all means date table of the business cycle / business cycle (business cycle dates table) I want you to see.

Long waves / long-circulating

NBER is Kondratieff not recorded cycle (or "long waves") a. And say why, NBER is because do not think the economists like many, such period may exist. Still, Kondratieff wave of the following four have been identified (name and year is Kuznets than, 1940): (1) industrial revolution (1787-1842) This is the most famous Kondratieff wave. Boom period began in 1787 roughly, recession at the beginning of the era of Napoleon in 1801, fell to the recession in 1814. Recession continued until 1827, I became a recovery period up to 1842 and thereafter. The Kondratieff wave was the wave that I got to the development of industry by the steam engine fiber, such as iron. (2) Bourgeois Con Dora Cech (1843-1897): 1842 or later, boom is resurrected, new Kondratieff wave began. This time it was something the railway extension in the United States and northern Europe, due to the expansion of the steel industry and coal associated with it. Boom period was the recession, resulting in approximately 1857. Recession plunged into recession in 1870, it lasted until 1885. I lasted until 1897 convalescent followed thereafter. (3) new mercantilism Kondratieff (1898-1950?): Begins with the development of the automotive industry around 1898, the expansion of power,
http://cruel.org/econthought/essays/cycle/empirical.html[20-01-2014 19:30:01]

Empirical problem: the business cycle / business cycle

boom lasted until around 1911 is this. Recession will be followed by a recession from around 1925, it lasted until 1935. I considered seems this wave of third entered the recovery and immediately after that, it lasted until about 1950, perhaps. (4) fourth Kondratieff (1950 -? 2010?) Among believers, considerable debate is certain if in either set the age of the fourth wave - and that primarily, the price level does not move up and down too much, which it is for Keynesian policies, and therefore piece does not have a still this controversy. The most plausible year, the thing was a recession in 1974 boom period has begun around 1950. This recession may or entered the phase when the recession, more difficult to identify and (wonder if around 1981?) But recovery has begun to (or that area) in 1992, are you looking at the agreement generally, Kondratieff wave the next thing that starts entering a new boom period around 2010 soon. People who want to know more about the Kondratieff wave is the home page of Kondratieff wave and Longwave Press referring to the site. (Yakuchu page: one, is gone.)

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Disclaimer , 2004 GLFonesca, L. Ussher, Hiroo Yamagata

http://cruel.org/econthought/essays/cycle/empirical.html[20-01-2014 19:30:01]