Chapter 4: Forecasting

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C H A P T E R

Forecasting

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

1.Qualitative models incorporate subjective factors into the

forecasting model. Qualitative models are useful when subjective

factors are important. When quantitative data are difficult to

obtain, qualitative models may be appropriate.

2.Approaches are qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative is

relatively subjective; quantitative uses numeric models.

3.Short-range (under 3 months), medium-range (3 months to

3 years), and long-range (over 3 years).

4.The steps that should be used to develop a forecasting

system are:

(a)Determine the purpose and use of the forecast

(b)Select the item or quantities that are to be forecasted

(c)Determine the time horizon of the forecast

(d)Select the type of forecasting model to be used

(e)Gather the necessary data

(f) Validate the forecasting model

(g)Make the forecast

(h)Implement and evaluate the results

5.Any three of: sales planning, production planning and

budgeting, cash budgeting, analyzing various operating plans.

6.There is no mechanism for growth in these models; they are

built exclusively from historical demand values. Such methods

will always lag trends.

7.Exponential smoothing is a weighted moving average where

all previous values are weighted with a set of weights that decline

exponentially.

8.MAD, MSE, and MAPE are common measures of forecast

accuracy. To find the more accurate forecasting model, forecast

with each tool for several periods where the demand outcome is

known, and calculate MSE, MAPE, or MAD for each. The

smaller error indicates the better forecast.

9.The Delphi technique involves:

(a)Assembling a group of experts in such a manner as to

preclude direct communication between identifiable

members of the group

(b)Assembling the responses of each expert to the questions

or problems of interest

(c)Summarizing these responses

(d)Providing each expert with the summary of all responses

and respond again to the questions or problems of interest.

(f) Repeating steps (b) through (e) several times as necessary

to obtain convergence in responses. If convergence has

not been obtained by the end of the fourth cycle, the

responses at that time should probably be accepted and

the process terminatedlittle additional convergence is

likely if the process is continued.

10.A time series model predicts on the basis of the assumption

that the future is a function of the past, whereas an associative

model incorporates into the model the variables of factors that

might influence the quantity being forecast.

11.A time series is a sequence of evenly spaced data points with the

four components of trend, seasonality, cyclical, and random variation.

12.When the smoothing constant, , is large (close to 1.0),

more weight is given to recent data; when is low (close to 0.0),

more weight is given to past data.

13.Seasonal patterns are of fixed duration and repeat regularly.

Cycles vary in length and regularity. Seasonal indices allow

generic forecasts to be made specific to the month, week, etc.,

of the application.

14.Exponential smoothing weighs all previous values with a set

of weights that decline exponentially. It can place a full weight on

the most recent period (with an alpha of 1.0). This, in effect, is the

nave approach, which places all its emphasis on last periods

actual demand.

15.Adaptive forecasting refers to computer monitoring of

tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes its present

limit.

16.Tracking signals alert the user of a forecasting tool to

periods in which the forecast was in significant error.

17.The correlation coefficient measures the degree to which the

independent and dependent variables move together. A negative

value would mean that as X increases, Y tends to fall. The

variables move together, but move in opposite directions.

18.Independent variable (x) is said to explain variations in the

dependent variable (y).

19.Nearly every industry has seasonality. The seasonality must

be filtered out for good medium-range planning (of production

and inventory) and performance evaluation.

20.There are many examples. Demand for raw materials and

component parts such as steel or tires is a function of demand for

goods such as automobiles.

27

28

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

difficult to make forecasts, and we must diminish our reliance on

the forecasts.

*Active Models 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4 appear on our Web site,

www.pearsonhighered.com/heizer.

ETHICAL DILEMMA

This exercise, derived from an actual situation, deals as much with

ethics as with forecasting. Here are a few points to consider:

college presidents would feel uncomfortable with this one.

It does offer the advantage of depoliticizing the funds allocation if used wisely and fairly. But to do so means all

parties must have input to the process (such as smoothing

constants) and all data need to be open to everyone.

The smoothing constants could be selected by an agreedupon criteria (such as lowest MAD) or could be based on

input from experts on the board as well as the college.

Abuse of the system is tied to assigning alphas based on

what results they yield, rather than what alphas make the

most sense.

Regression is open to abuse as well. Models can use many

years of data yielding one result or few years yielding a

totally different forecast. Selection of associative variables

can have a major impact on results as well.

ACTIVE MODEL 4.1: Moving Averages

1.What does the graph look like when n = 1?

The forecast graph mirrors the data graph but one period

later.

2.What happens to the graph as the number of periods in the

moving average increases?

The forecast graph becomes shorter and smoother.

3.What value for n minimizes the MAD for this data?

n = 1 (a nave forecast)

1.What happens to the graph when alpha equals zero?

The graph is a straight line. The forecast is the same in

each period.

2.What happens to the graph when alpha equals one?

The forecast follows the same pattern as the demand

(except for the first forecast) but is offset by one period. This

is a nave forecast.

3.Generalize what happens to a forecast as alpha increases.

As alpha increases the forecast is more sensitive to

changes in demand.

4.2(a)No, the data appear to have no consistent pattern

(see part d for graph).

(b)

(c)

Year

10

11

Forecast

Demand

3-year moving

3-year weighted

9.0

7.0

6.4

13.0

7.7

7.8

8.0

9.0

11.0

12.0

10.0

9.6

13.0

11.0

10.9

9.0

11.0

12.2

11.0

11.3

10.5

7.0

11.0

10.6

9.0

8.4

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

minimized?

alpha = .16

29

results.

Trend Adjustment

1.Scroll through different values for alpha and beta. Which

smoothing constant appears to have the greater effect on the graph?

alpha

2.With beta set to zero, find the best alpha and observe the

MAD. Now find the best beta. Observe the MAD. Does the

addition of a trend improve the forecast?

4.3

Year

10

11

Forecast

Demand

Nave

Exp. Smoothing

9.0

7.0

6.4

5.0

9.0

7.4

9.0

5.0

6.5

13.0

9.0

7.5

8.0

13.0

9.7

12.0

8.0

9.0

13.0

12.0

10.2

9.0

13.0

11.3

11.0

9.0

10.4

7.0

11.0

10.6

7.0

9.2

(by a little) to 2.54.

1.What is the annual trend in the data?

10.54

2.Use the scrollbars for the slope and intercept to determine the

values that minimize the MAD. Are these the same values that

regression yields?

No, they are not the same values. For example, an

intercept of 57.81 with a slope of 9.44 yields a MAD of 7.17.

Nave tracks the ups and downs best but lags the data by one

period. Exponential smoothing is probably better because it

smoothes the data and does not have as much variation.

END-OF-CHAPTER PROBLEMS

smoothing forecasts the nave.

4.1 (a)

= 374.33 pints

3

well

exponential

= 42 + 0.2(40 42) = 41.6

(b)

Week of

August 31

September 7

September 14

September 21

September 28

October 5

how

Weighted

Moving Average

Pints Used

360

389

410

381

368

374

Forecast 372.9

(c)

The forecast is 374.26.

= 41.6 + 0.2(45 41.6) = 42.3

381 .1 = 38.1

368 .3 = 110.4

374 .6 = 224.4

372.9

Week of

Pints

Forecast

August 31

September 7

September 14

September 21

September 28

October 5

360

389

410

381

368

374

360

360

365.8

374.64

375.912

374.3296

Forecasting

Error

0

29

44.2

6.36

7.912

.3296

Error

.20

0

5.8

8.84

1.272

1.5824

.06592

Forecast

360

365.8

374.64

375.912

374.3296

374.2636

its processing requirements

4.5 (a)

3,700 + 3,800

=3,750 miles

2

(b)

Year

1

2

Mileage

Two-Year

Moving Average

3,000

4,000

Error

|Error|

30

3

4

5

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

3,400

3,800

3,700

3,500

3,700

3,600

Totals

MAD =

300

= 100.

3

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

300

Year

1

2

3

4

5

Mileage

Forecast

Error

3,000

4,000

3,400

3,800

3,700

3,600

3,640

3,640

200

160

60

|Error|

200

160

60

420

420

MAD = 140 =

3

4.5(d)

Year

Mileage

Forecast

Forecast

Error

Error

= .50

New

Forecast

3,000

4,000

3,400

3,800

3,700

3,000

3,000

3,500

3,450

3,625

Total

0

1,000

100

350

75

1,325

0

500

50

175

38

3,000

3,500

3,450

3,625

3,663

1

2

3

4

5

4.6

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Sum

Average

Y Sales

X Period

20

21

15

14

13

16

17

18

20

20

21

23

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

218

18.2

(a)

78

6.5

X2

1

4

9

16

25

36

49

64

81

100

121

144

XY

20

42

45

56

65

96

119

144

180

200

231

276

650

1,474

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

(b)[i]Nave

[iii]6-month weighted [(0.1 17) + (.1 18)

+ (0.1 20) + (0.2 20)

+ (0.2 21) + (0.3 23)]/1.0

= 20.6

[iv]Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3

FOct = 18 + 0.3(20 18) = 18.6

FNov = 18.6 + 0.3(20 18.6) = 19.02

FDec = 19.02 + 0.3(21 19.02) = 19.6

FJan = 19.6 + 0.3(23 19.6) = 20.62 21

[v]Trend x = 78, x = 6.5, y = 218, y = 18.17

xy nx y

x 2 nx 2

1474 (12)(6.5)(18.2) 54.4

b=

=

= 0.38

650 12(6.5)2

143

a = y bx

a = 18.2 0.38(6.5) = 15.73

b=

is the 13th month.

(c)Only trend provides an equation that can extend beyond

one month

4.7Present = Period (week) 6.

1

1

1

1

a) So: F7 = 3 A6 + 4 A5 + 4 A4 + 6 A3 1.0

1

1

1

1

= (52) + (63) + (48) + (70) = 56.76 patients,

3

4

4

6

or 57 patients

1 1 1 1

where 1.0 = weights , , ,

3 4 4 6

b) If the weights are 20, 15, 15, and 10, there will be no change in

the forecast because these are the same relative weights as in

part (a), i.e., 20/60, 15/60, 15/60, and 10/60.

c) If the weights are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1, then the forecast

becomes 56.3, or 56 patients.

31

32

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Forecast

Month

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Price per

Chip

$1.80

1.67

1.70

1.85

1.90

1.87

1.80

1.83

1.70

1.65

1.70

1.75

(96 + 88 + 90)

= 91.3

3

(88 + 90)

(b)

= 89

2

(c)

4.8 (a)

93.5

93.5

94.0

95.5

92.0

1.735

1.685

1.775

1.875

1.885

1.835

1.815

1.765

1.675

1.675

Three-Month

Moving

Average

Two-Month

Moving

Average

1.723

1.740

1.817

1.873

1.857

1.833

1.777

1.727

1.683

Totals

.035

.165

.125

.005

.085

.005

.115

.115

.025

.075

.750

|Error|

Three-Month

Moving

Average

.127

.160

.053

.073

.027

.133

.127

.027

.067

.793

performed better.

93

94

93

95

96

88

90

Two-Month

Moving

Average

0.5 0.25

1.5

2.25

2.0 4.00

7.5

56.25

2.0 4.00

13.5

66.75

Absolute % Error

100(.5/93)

100(1.5/95)

100(2/96)

100(7.5/88)

100(2/90)

= 0.54%

= 1.58%

= 2.08%

= 8.52%

= 2.22%

14.94%

(e)MAPE = 14.94%/5 = 2.99%

4.9(a, b) The computations for both the two- and three-month

averages appear in the table; the results appear in the

figure below.

MAD (three-month moving average) = .793/9 = .088

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

4.9

= .1

Month

Forecast

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

$1.80

1.67

1.70

1.85

1.90

1.87

1.80

1.83

1.70

1.65

1.70

1.75

Totals

MAD (total/12)

$1.80

1.80

1.79

1.78

1.79

1.80

1.80

1.80

1.81

1.80

1.78

1.77

= .3

|Error|

Forecast

$.00

.13

.09

.07

.11

.07

.00

.03

.11

.15

.08

.02

$.86

$.072

$1.80

1.80

1.76

1.74

1.77

1.81

1.83

1.82

1.82

1.79

1.75

1.73

= .5

|Error|

Forecast

$.00

.13

.06

.11

.13

.06

.03

.01

.12

.14

.05

.02

$.86

$.072

$1.80

1.80

1.74

1.72

1.78

1.84

1.86

1.83

1.83

1.76

1.71

1.70

|Error|

$.00

.13

.04

.13

.12

.03

.06

.00

.13

.11

.01

.05

$.81

$.0675

also justify excluding the January error and then dividing by

n = 11 to compute the MAD. These numbers would be $.078

(for = .1), $.078 (for = .3), and $.074 (for = .5).

4.10

Year

Demand

(a) 3-year moving

(b) 3-year weighted

10

11

Forecast

5.0

4.7

4.5

10.0

5.0

5.0

8.0

6.3

7.3

7.0

7.7

7.8

9.0

8.3

8.0

12.0

8.0

8.3

14.0

9.3

10.0

15.0

11.7

12.3

13.7

14.0

4.11 (a) Year

Demand

Exp. Smoothing

10

11

Forecast

4

5

6.0

4.7

4.0

5.1

5.0

4.8

10.0

4.8

8.0

6.4

7.0

6.9

9.0

6.9

12.0

7.5

14.0

8.9

15.0

10.4

11.8

33

34

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Year

Exp. smoothing

1

1

2

1.3

3

1.1

4

0.2

5

5.2

6

1.6

7

0.1

8

2.1

9

4.5

10

5.1

11

4.6

MAD

2.4

These calculations were completed in Excel. Calculations are slightly different in Excel OM and POM for Windows due to

rounding differences.

4.12

MAD = 6.2

(c)Trend projection:

Actual

Demand

Forecast

Demand

Monday

88

88

Year

Tuesday

72

88

Wednesday

68

84

Thursday

48

80

Friday

1

2

3

4

5

6

Day

72

Answer

Demand

Trend Projection

45

50

52

56

58

?

42.6 + 3.2 2 = 49.0

42.6 + 3.2 3 = 52.2

42.6 + 3.2 4 = 55.4

42.6 + 3.2 5 = 58.6

42.6 + 3.2 6 = 61.8

Y = a + bX

F3 = 88 + .25(72 88) = 88 4 = 84

b=

F4 = 84 + .25(68 84) = 84 4 = 80

4.13(a)Exponential smoothing, = 0.6:

Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

Demand

45

50

52

56

58

?

41

41.0 + 0.6(4541) = 43.4

43.4 + 0.6(5043.4) = 47.4

47.4 + 0.6(5247.4) = 50.2

50.2 + 0.6(5650.2) = 53.7

53.7 + 0.6(5853.7) = 56.3

Absolute

Deviation

4.0

6.6

4.6

5.8

4.3

= 25.3

MAD = 5.06

Exponential smoothing, = 0.9:

Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

Exponential

Smoothing = 0.9

Demand

45

50

52

56

58

?

41

41.0 + 0.9(4541) = 44.6

44.6 + 0.9(5044.6 ) = 49.5

49.5 + 0.9(5249.5) = 51.8

51.8 + 0.9(5651.8) = 55.6

55.6 + 0.9(5855.6) = 57.8

Absolute

Deviation

4.0

5.4

2.5

4.2

2.4

= 18.5

MAD = 3.7

(b)3-year moving average:

Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

Demand

45

50

52

56

58

?

Three-Year

Moving Average

XY nXY

X 2 nX 2

a = Y bX

F5 = 80 + .25(48 80) = 80 8 = 72

Exponential

Smoothing = 0.6

0.8

1.0

0.2

0.6

0.6

= 3.2

MAD = 0.64

F2 = 88 + .25(88 88) = 88 + 0 = 88

Absolute

Deviation

Absolute

Deviation

XY

X2

1

2

3

4

5

45

50

52

56

58

45

100

156

224

290

1

4

9

16

25

Therefore:

815 5 3 52.2

b=

= 3.2

55 5 3 3

a = 52.20 3.20 3 = 42.6

Y6 = 42.6 + 3.2 6 = 61.8

(d) Comparing the results of the forecasting methodologies

for parts (a), (b), and (c).

Forecast Methodology

MAD

Exponential smoothing, = 0.9

3-year moving average

Trend projection

5.06

3.7

6.2

0.64

is to be preferred over the exponential smoothing with = 0.6,

exponential smoothing with = 0.9, or the 3-year moving average

forecast methodologies.

4.14

Method 1:

(45 + 50 + 52)/3 = 49

(50 + 52 + 56)/3 = 52.7

(52 + 56 + 58)/3 = 55.3

7

5.3

MSE : (0.04 + 0.0025 + 0.0025 + 0.04)/4 = .021

Method 2:

MSE : (0.01 + 0.04 + 0.01 + 0.0121) / 4 = .018 better

= 12.3

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

35

4.15

Year

Sales

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

450

495

518

563

584

Forecast Three-Year

Moving Average

Absolute

Deviation

(495 + 518 + 563)/3 = 525.3

(518 + 563 + 584)/3 = 555.0

75.3

58.7

Year

Sales

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

450

495

518

563

584

Forecast Exponential

Smoothing = 0.9

410.0

410 + 0.9(450 410) = 446.0

446 + 0.9(495 446) = 490.1

490.1 + 0.9(518 490.1) = 515.2

515.2 + 0.9(563 515.2) = 558.2

558.2 + 0.9(584 558.2) = 581.4

= 134

MAD = 67

4.16

Year

Time Period X

Sales Y

X2

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1

2

3

4

5

450

495

518

563

584

1

4

9

16

25

450

990

1554

2252

2920

= 2610

= 55

= 8166

XY

X = 3, Y = 522

Y = a + bX

b=

XY nXY

X 2 nX 2

=

= 33.6

55 (5)(9)

10

y = 421.2 + 33.6 x

y = 421.2 + 33.6 6 = 622.8

Sales

Forecast Trend

Absolute Deviation

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

450

495

518

563

584

454.8

488.4

522.0

555.6

589.2

622.8

4.8

6.6

4.0

7.4

5.2

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

450

495

518

563

584

MAD= 0.6 = 51.8

MAD= 0.9 = 38.1

Because it gives the lowest MAD, the smoothing constant of

= 0.9 gives the most accurate forecast.

4.18We need to find the smoothing constant . We know in

general that Ft = Ft1 + (At1 Ft1); t = 2, 3, 4. Choose

either

t = 3 or t = 4 (t = 2 wont let us find because F2 = 50 = 50 +

(50 50) holds for any ). Lets pick t = 3. Then F3 = 48 = 50 +

(42 50)

48 = 50 + 42 50

or

2 = 8

So,

.25 =

F5 = 50 + 46 50 = 50 4

For

= .25, F5 = 50 4(.25) = 49

4.19Trend adjusted exponential smoothing: = 0.1, = 0.2

Month

4.17

Sales

For = 0.3, absolute deviations for 20052009 are 40.0, 73.0,

74.1, 96.9, 88.8, respectively. So the MAD = 372.8/5 = 74.6.

= 28

MAD = 5.6

Year

40.0

49.0

27.9

47.8

25.8

= 190.5

MAD = 38.1

or

Year

Absolute

Deviation

Forecast Exponential

Smoothing = 0.6

410.0

410 + 0.6(450 410) = 434.0

434 + 0.6(495 434) = 470.6

470.6 + 0.6(518 470.6) = 499.0

499 + 0.6(563 499) = 537.4

537.4 + 0.6(584 537.4) = 565.6

Absolute

Deviation

40.0

61.0

47.4

64.0

46.6

= 259

MAD = 51.8

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

Income

70.0

68.5

64.8

71.7

71.3

72.8

Unadjusted

Forecast

65.0

65.5

65.9

65.92

66.62

67.31

68.16

Trend

0.0

0.1

0.16

0.13

0.25

0.33

Adjusted

Forecast |Error| Error 2

65

65.6

66.05

66.06

66.87

67.64

68.60

5.0

2.9

1.2

5.6

4.4

5.2

24.3

25.0

8.4

1.6

31.9

19.7

26.6

113.2

numbers are rounded.

Note: To use POM for Windows to solve this problem, a period 0,

which contains the initial forecast and initial trend, must be added.

36

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

4.23Students must determine the nave forecast for the four

4.21 F5 = A4 + ( 1 ) ( F4 + T4 ) = ( 0.2Unadjusted

) ( 19) + ( 0.8) ( 20.14)

Month

Demand (y)

Forecast

Trend

February

70.0

65.0

0

March T5 = F5 F4 + 1 68.5

65.5 17.82 0.4

T4 = 0.4 19.91

April

64.8

66.16

0.61

+ 0.666.57

2.32 = 0.40.45

2.09

May

71.7

June

71.3

+ 1.3967.49

= 0.84 + 1.390.82

= 2.23

July

72.8

68.61

1.06

+ 2.23 = 22.14

Totals FIT5 = F5 + T5 = 19.91

419.1

Average

69.85

August Forecast

) (

( )(

( )(

Adjusted

months. The

nave |Error|

forecast for

March is the February actual of 83,

Forecast

Error

Error2

etc.

65.0

65.9

66.77

67.02

68.31

69.68

5.00

2.60

1.97

4.68

2.99

3.12

16.42

2.74

(Bias)

5.0

2.6

1.97

4.68

2.99

3.12

20.36

3.39

(MAD)

25.00

6.76

3.87

21.89

8.91

9.76

76.19

12.70

(MSE)

71.30

F6 = A5 + ( 1 ) ( F5 + T5 ) = ( 0.2 ) ( 24 ) + ( 0.8) ( 22.14 )

Based upon the MSE criterion, =the

smoothing with = 0.1, = 0.8 is to be preferred

4.8 exponential

+ 17.71 = 22.51

over the exponential smoothing with = 0.1, = 0.2. Its MSE of 12.70 is lower. Its MAD of 3.39 is

also lower

T6 = than

( F6that

F5in) +Problem

= 0.4 ( 22.51 19.91) + 0.6 ( 2.23)

( 1 ) T54.19.

March

April

May

June

4.22 F7 = A6 + (1 )( F6 + T6 ) = (0.2)(21) + (0.8)(24.89)

= 4.2 + 19.91 = 24.11

T7 = ( F7 F6 ) + (1 )T6 = (0.4)(24.11 22.51)

+ (0.8)(26.18) = 27.14

T8 = ( F8 F7 ) + ( 1 ) T7 = 0.4 ( 27.14 24.11)

F9 = A8 + ( 1 ) ( F8 + T8 ) = ( 0.2 ) ( 28)

101

96

89

108

|Error| |% Error|

120

114

110

108

19

18

21

0

58

100 (18/96) = 18.75%

100 (21/89) = 23.60%

100 (0/108) = 0%

61.16%

58

= 14.5

4

61.16%

MAPE (for management) =

= 15.29%

4

MAD (for management) =

+ (0.6)(2.38) = 2.07

FIT7 = F7 + T7 = 24.11 + 2.07 = 26.18

F8 = A7 + (1 )( F7 + T7 ) = (0.2)(31)

Actual Forecast

(a)

(b)

March

April

May

June

Actual

Nave

101

96

89

108

83

101

96

89

|Error| |% Error|

18

5

7

19

49

100 (5/96) = 5.21%

100 (7/89) = 7.87%

100 (19/108) = 17.59%

48.49%

49

= 12.25

4

48.49%

MAPE (for nave) =

= 12.12%.

4

Nave outperforms management.

MAD (for nave) =

(c)MAD for the managers technique is 14.5, while MAD for the

nave forecast is only 12.25. MAPEs are 15.29% and 12.12%,

respectively. So the nave method is better.

4.24(a)Graph of demand

The observations obviously do not form a straight line but do tend

to cluster about a straight line over the range shown.

(b)Least-squares regression:

Y = a + bX

b=

XY nXY

X 2 nX 2

a = Y bX

Assume

Appearances X

3

4

7

Demand Y

3

6

7

X2

Y2

XY

9

16

49

9

36

49

9

24

49

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

6

8

5

9

5

10

7

?

36

64

25

25

100

49

30

80

35

Therefore:

227 6 5.5 6.333

= 1.0286

199 6 5.5 5.5

a = 6.333 1.0286 5.5 = .6762

Y = .676 + 1.03 x (rounded)

b=

b=

xy n x y

650 4(2.5)(55)

x nx

100

=

= 20

5

a = y bx

= 55 (20)(2.5)

=5

2

30 4(2.5)

37

650 550

30 25

y = 5 + 20(5) = 105.

The following figure shows both the data and the resulting equation:

4.26

Average

Year1

Year2 Year1Year2

Season Demand Demand Demand

Fall

Winter

Spring

Summer

200

350

150

300

250

300

165

285

Average

Season Seasonal Year3

Demand Index Demand

225.0

325.0

157.5

292.5

250

250

250

250

0.90

1.30

0.63

1.17

270

390

189

351

=

2

Demand for season

Sum of Ave Yr1 to Yr2 Demand

4

Average Yr1 to Yr2 Demand

Seasonal index =

Average Seasonal Demand

New Annual Demand

Yr3 =

Seasonal index

20,000 4

Average over all seasons:

= 1, 250

120016

=

Seasonal index

6,000

4 = 1,500

Average over spring:

4

1,500

Spring index:

= 1.2

1,250

Pilots, the estimated sales are:

Y9 = .676 + 1.03 9 = .676 + 9.27 = 9.93 drums

10 drums

means 68% of the variation in sales can be explained by TV

appearances.

5,600

Answer:

(1.2) = 1,680 sailboats

4

4.25

Month

Number of

Accidents

(y)

January

February

March

April

Totals

Averages

30

40

60

90

220

y = 55

x

1

2

3

4

10

x = 2.5

xy

x2

30

80

180

360

650

1

4

9

16

30

4.27

2006

2007

2008

2009

Winter

Spring

Summer

1,400

1,200

1,000

900

4,500

1,500

1,400

1,600

1,500

6,000

1,000

2,100

2,000

1,900

7,000

Fall

600

750

650

500

2,500

4.28

Quarter

2007

2008

2009

Winter

Spring

Summer

Fall

73

104

168

74

65

82

124

52

89

146

205

98

Average

Average Quarterly Seasonal

Demand Demand

Index

75.67

110.67

165.67

74.67

106.67

106.67

106.67

106.67

0.709

1.037

1.553

0.700

4.32(a)

38

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

numbers are 101 through 104.

(1)

Quarter

(2)

Quarter

Number

(3)

Forecast

(77 + .43Q)

(4)

Seasonal

Factor

(5)

Adjusted

Forecast

[(3) (4)]

Winter

Spring

Summer

Fall

101

102

103

104

120.43

120.86

121.29

121.72

.8

1.1

1.4

.7

96.344

132.946

169.806

85.204

Y = 36 + 4.3(70) = 337

(b)

Y = 36 + 4.3(80) = 380

(c)

Y = 36 + 4.3(90) = 423

4.31

xi

yi

i =1

330

270

380

300

5,280

3,240

6,840

4,200

256

144

324

196

60

1,280

19,560

920

(b)MSE = 160/5 = 32

(c)MAPE = 13.23%/5 = 2.65%

(1)

(2)

(a)28

(b)43

Y=

16

12

18

14

is 50 + 18(20) = $410. Each guest accounts for an

additional $18 in bar sales.

x2

60

= 15

4

1,280

y=

= 320

4

xy nx y 19,560 4(15)(320) 360

b=

=

=

= 18

20

x 2 nx 2

920 4(15)2

a = y bx = 320 18(15) = 50

Y = 50 + 18 x

i =1

xy

x=

be the number sold.

X=

the nearest integer: Answer: 677 lattes.

4.30Given Y = 36 + 4.3X

(a)

xi yi = 9,783

(3)

i =1

6

b=

2

xi = 67.1925

6

b=

i =1

6

2

2

x i nx

2,880 2,700

55 45

55 5(3)

180

=

= 18

10

a = 180 3(18) = 180 54 = 126

y = 126 + 18 x

(4)

i=1

xi yi nx y

2,880 5(3)(180)

67.1925 6(3.25833)2

i =1

969.489

=

= 277.6

3.49222

a = y bx = 550 [(277.6)(3.25)] = 1, 454.6

Table for Problem 4.33

Year

(x)

1

2

3

4

5

Totals 15

x = 3

Transistors

(y)

140

160

190

200

210

900

y = 180

xy

x2

126 + 18x

Error

Error 2

|% Error|

140

320

570

800

1,050

2,800

1

4

9

16

25

55

144

162

180

198

216

4

2

10

2

6

16

4

100

4

36

160

100 (2/160) = 1.25%

100 (10/190) = 5.26%

100 (2/200) = 1.00%

100 (6/210) = 2.86%

13.23%

(c)58

4.35(a) Y = 13,473 + 37.65(1860) = 83,502

(b)The predicted selling price is $83,502, but this is the

average price for a house of this size. There are other

factors besides square footage that will impact the

selling price of a house. If such a house sold for

$95,000, then these other factors could be contributing

to the additional value.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

house, number of bedrooms, size of the lot, and size of

the garage, etc.

(d)Coefficient of determination = (0.63)2 = 0.397. This

means that only about 39.7% of the variability in the

sales price of a house is explained by this regression

model that only includes square footage as the

explanatory variable.

4.36(a)Given: Y = 90 + 48.5X1 + 0.4X2 where:

Y = expected travel cost

X1 = number of days on the road

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

55

36

33

40

41

40

55

60

54

58

61

478

b=

If:

Number of days on the road X1 = 5 and distance

traveled X2 = 300

then:

Y = 90 + 48.5 5 + 0.4 300 = 90 + 242.5 + 120 = 452.5

Therefore, the expected cost of the trip is $452.50.

(b)The reimbursement request is much higher than

predicted by the model. This request should probably

be questioned by the accountant.

b=

385 10 5.5

a = 47.8 3.28 5.5 = 29.76

2

=

= 3.28

385 302.5 82.5

X = 11: Y = 29.76 + 3.28 11 = 65.8

X = 12: Y = 29.76 + 3.28 12 = 69.1

tolls, or parking

high. It indicates that the model explains approximately 46% of

the overall variation in trip cost. This correlation coefficient

would suggest that the model is not a particularly good one.

4.37 (a, b)

20

21

28

37

25

29

36

22

25

28

20

20

20.5

24.25

30.63

27.81

28.41

32.20

27.11

26.05

Error

0.00

1.00

7.50

12.75

5.63

1.19

7.59

10.20

2.10

1.95

Running sum

|error|

0.00

1.00

7.50

12.75

5.63

1.19

7.59

10.20

2.10

1.95

MAD

5.00

Cumulative error = 14.05; MAD = 5Tracking = 14.05/5 = 2.82

0.00

1.00

8.50

21.25

15.63

16.82

24.41

14.21

12.10

14.05

(b)Y = 0.158 + 0.1308(22) = 2.719 million

(c)coefficient of correlation = r = 0.966

coefficient of determination = r2 = 0.934

4.39

Year X

X 2 nX 2

Therefore:

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

XY nXY

X = 5.5, Y = 47.8, Then:

Forecast

Patients Y

X2

36

66

120

164

200

330

420

432

522

610

2,900

a = Y bX

Demand

1,296

1,089

1,600

1,681

1,600

3,025

3,600

2,916

3,364

3,721

23,892

Given: Y = a + bX where:

Period

1

4

9

16

25

36

49

64

81

100

385

39

Y2

The model seems to fit the data pretty well. One should,

however, be more precise in judging the adequacy of the model.

Two possible approaches are computation of (a) the correlation

coefficient, or (b) the mean absolute deviation. The correlation

coefficient:

r=

n XY X Y

n X 2 ( X ) 2 n Y 2 ( Y ) 2

10 2900 55 478

10 385 552 10 23892 4782

29000 26290

2710

2710

=

=

= 0.924

2934.3

825 10436

r 2 = 0.853

The coefficient of determination of 0.853 is quite respectable

indicating our original judgment of a good fit was appropriate.

XY

40

Year

X

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Patients

Y

Trend

Forecast

Deviation

Absolute

Deviation

36

33

40

41

40

55

60

54

58

61

29.8 + 3.28 2 = 36.3

29.8 + 3.28 3 = 39.6

29.8 + 3.28 4 = 42.9

29.8 + 3.28 5 = 46.2

29.8 + 3.28 6 = 49.4

29.8 + 3.28 7 = 52.7

29.8 + 3.28 8 = 56.1

29.8 + 3.28 9 = 59.3

29.8 + 3.28 10 = 62.6

2.9

3.3

0.4

1.9

6.2

5.6

7.3

2.1

1.3

1.6

2.9

3.3

0.4

1.9

6.2

5.6

7.3

2.1

1.3

1.6

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

4.41note

(a)It

appears

from

graph that

points

do

Also

that

a crime

ratethe

of following

131.2 is outside

the the

range

of the

scatter

around a straight

line. equations, so caution is

data set used

to determine

the regression

advised.

= 32.6

MAD = 3.26

The MAD is 3.26this is approximately 7% of the average

number of patients and 10% of the minimum number of patients.

We also see absolute deviations, for years 5, 6, and 7 in the range

5.67.3. The comparison of the MAD with the average and

minimum number of patients and the comparatively large

deviations during the middle years indicate that the forecast model

is not exceptionally accurate. It is more useful for predicting

general trends than the actual number of patients to be seen in a

specific year.

4.40

Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Column Totals

Crime

Rate X

Patients

Y

X2

Y2

XY

58.3

61.1

73.4

75.7

81.1

89.0

101.1

94.8

103.3

116.2

854.0

36

33

40

41

40

55

60

54

58

61

478

3,398.9

3,733.2

5,387.6

5,730.5

6,577.2

7,921.0

10,221.2

8,987.0

10,670.9

13,502.4

76,129.9

1,296

1,089

1,600

1,681

1,600

3,025

3,600

2,916

3,364

3,721

23,892

2,098.8

2,016.3

2,936.0

3,103.7

3,244.0

4,895.0

6,066.0

5,119.2

5,991.4

7,088.2

42,558.6

Given: Y = a + bX where

b=

XY nXY

X nX

2

(Summer

months)

Year

76129.9 10 85.42

1737.4

=

= 0.543

3197.3

a = 47.8 0.543 85.4 = 1.43

and

For:

42558.6 40821.2

76129.9 72931.6

Y = 1.43 + 0.543X

X = 131.2 : Y = 1.43 + 0.543(131.2) = 72.7

X = 90.6 : Y = 1.43 + 0.543(90.6) = 50.6

X2

Y2

XY

7

2

6

4

14

15

16

12

14

20

15

7

1.5

1.0

1.3

1.5

2.5

2.7

2.4

2.0

2.7

4.4

3.4

1.7

49

4

36

16

196

225

256

144

196

400

225

49

2.25

1.00

1.69

2.25

6.25

7.29

5.76

4.00

7.29

19.36

11.56

2.89

10.5

2.0

7.8

6.0

35.0

40.5

38.4

24.0

37.8

88.0

51.0

11.9

Given: Y = a + bX where:

b=

Crime rate = 90.6 50.6 patients

X 2 nX 2

Y 2 = 71.59, X = 11, Y = 2.26.

Then:

352.9 298.3 54.6

=

=

= 0.159

1796 1452

344

1796 12 112

a = 2.26 0.159 11 = 0.511

b=

and

352.9 12 11 2.26

Y = 0.511 + 0.159X

(c)Given a tourist population of 10,000,000, the model

predicts a ridership of:

Y = 0.511 + 0.159 10 = 2.101, or 2,101,000 persons.

(d)If there are no tourists at all, the model predicts a

ridership of 0.511, or 511,000 persons. One would not

place much confidence in this forecast, however,

because the number of tourists (zero) is outside the

range of data used to develop the model.

(e)The standard error of the estimate is given by:

Syx =

Therefore:

XY nXY

a = Y bX

a = Y bX

b=

Ridership

(1,000,000s)

(Y)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Y 2 = 23892, X = 85.4, Y = 47.8. Then:

Tourists

(Millions)

(X)

Y 2 a Y b XY

n2

71.59 0.511 27.1 0.159 352.9

12 2

= .163

10

= .404 (rounded to .407 in POM for Windows software)

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

(f) The correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination are given by:

r=

=

=

n XY X Y

n X 2 ( X ) 2 n Y 2 ( Y ) 2

Apr.

May.

Jun.

35

42

50

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

41

35

38

29

Both history and forecast for the next year are shown in the

accompanying figure:

4234.8 3577.2

21552 17424 859.08 734.41

657.6

657.6

=

= 0.917

4128 124.67 64.25 11.166

and r 2 = 0.840

4.42(a)This problem gives students a chance to tackle a

realistic problem in business, i.e., not enough data to

make a good forecast. As can be seen in the

accompanying figure, the data contains both seasonal

and trend factors.

Week

t

or other patterns in the data. Moving averages smooth out seasonality. Exponential smoothing can forecast January next year,

but not farther. Because seasonality is strong, a nave model that

students create on their own might be best.

(b) One model might be: Ft+1 = At11

That is forecastnext period = actualone year earlier to account

for

seasonality. But this ignores the trend.

One very good approach would be to calculate the increase

from each month last year to each month this year, sum all 12

increases, and divide by 12. The forecast for next year would

equal the value for the same month this year plus the average

increase over the 12 months of last year.

(c) Using this model, the January forecast for next year becomes:

F25 = 17 +

148

= 17 + 12 = 29

12

where 148 = total monthly increases from last year to this year.

The forecasts for each of the months of next year then become:

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

29

26

32

July.

Aug.

Sep.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Actual

Value

A(t)

Smoothed

Value

Ft ( = 0.2)

50

35

25

40

45

35

20

30

35

20

15

40

55

35

25

55

55

40

35

60

75

50

40

65

+50.0

+50.0

+47.0

+42.6

+42.1

+42.7

+41.1

+36.9

+35.5

+35.4

+32.3

+28.9

+31.1

+35.9

+36.7

+33.6

+37.8

+41.3

+41.0

+39.8

+43.9

+50.1

+50.1

+48.1

+51.4

Forecast

Error

+0.0

15.0

22.0

2.6

2.9

7.7

21.1

6.9

0.5

15.4

17.3

+11.1

+23.9

0.9

10.7

+21.4

+17.2

1.3

6.0

+20.2

+31.1

0.1

10.1

+16.9

MAD = 11.8

Smoothed

Value

Forecast

Ft ( = 0.6)

Error

+50.0

+50.0

+41.0

+31.4

+36.6

+41.6

+37.6

+27.1

+28.8

+32.5

+25.0

+19.0

+31.6

+45.6

+39.3

+30.7

+45.3

+51.1

+44.4

+38.8

+51.5

+65.6

+56.2

+46.5

+57.6

+0.0

15.0

16.0

+8.6

+8.4

6.6

17.6

+2.9

+6.2

12.5

10.0

+21.0

+23.4

10.6

14.3

+24.3

+9.7

11.1

9.4

+21.2

+23.5

15.6

16.2

+18.5

MAD = 13.45

are for = 0.2. When compared to actual week 25 calls

of 85, the smoothing constant, = 0.6, appears to do a

slightly better job. On the basis of the standard error

of the estimate and the MAD, the 0.2 constant is

better. However, other smoothing constants need to be

examined.

56

53

45

42

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

4.44

Week

t

Actual Value

At

Smoothed Value

Ft ( = 0.3)

Trend Estimate

Tt ( = 0.2)

Forecast

FITt

Forecast

Error

50.000

35.000

25.000

40.000

45.000

35.000

20.000

30.000

35.000

20.000

15.000

40.000

55.000

35.000

25.000

55.000

55.000

40.000

35.000

60.000

75.000

50.000

40.000

65.000

50.000

50.000

45.500

38.720

37.651

38.543

36.555

30.571

28.747

29.046

25.112

20.552

24.526

32.737

33.820

31.649

38.731

44.664

44.937

43.332

49.209

58.470

58.445

54.920

59.058

0.000

0.000

0.900

2.076

1.875

1.321

1.455

2.361

2.253

1.743

2.181

2.657

1.331

0.578

0.679

0.109

1.503

2.389

1.966

1.252

2.177

3.594

2.870

1.591

2.100

50.000

50.000

44.600

36.644

35.776

37.222

35.101

28.210

26.494

27.303

22.931

17.895

23.196

33.315

34.499

31.758

40.234

47.053

46.903

44.584

51.386

62.064

61.315

56.511

61.158

0.000

15.000

19.600

3.356

9.224

2.222

15.101

1.790

8.506

7.303

7.931

22.105

31.804

1.685

9.499

23.242

14.766

7.053

11.903

15.416

23.614

12.064

21.315

8.489

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

actual week 25 calls are compared to the forecasted value. The

model appears to be producing a forecast approximately midrange between that given by simple exponential smoothing using

= 0.2 and = 0.6. Trend adjustment does not appear to give

any significant improvement.

n

Tracking signal =

4.45

( At Ft )

t =1

Month

At

Ft

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

100

80

110

115

105

110

125

120

100

104

99

101

104

104

105

109

MAD

|At Ft |

0

24

11

14

1

6

20

11

Sum: 87

(At Ft )

0

24

11

14

1

6

20

11

Sum: 39

87

= 10.875

8

39

= 3.586

10.875

So: MAD:

4.46 (a)

421

377

2.90

2.93

X2

177241

142129

Y2

8.41

8.58

XY

1220.9

1104.6

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Column totals

585

690

608

390

415

481

729

501

613

709

366

6885

3.00

3.45

3.66

2.88

2.15

2.53

3.22

1.99

2.75

3.90

1.60

36.96

342225

476100

369664

152100

172225

231361

531441

251001

375769

502681

133956

3857893

9.00

11.90

13.40

8.29

4.62

6.40

10.37

3.96

7.56

15.21

2.56

110.26

1755.0

2380.5

2225.3

1123.2

892.3

1216.9

2347.4

997.0

1685.8

2765.1

585.6

20299.5

Given: Y = a + bX where:

b=

XY nXY

X 2 nX 2

a = Y bX

43

44

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Y 2 = 110.26, X = 529.6, Y = 2.843, Then:

b=

3857893 13 529.62

726

=

= 0.0034

211703

a = 2.84 0.0034 529.6 = 1.03

20299.5 19573.5

3857893 3646190

than that of Barbaras moving average (19.17). So his

forecast seems to be better.

As an indication of the usefulness of this relationship, we can

calculate the correlation coefficient:

r=

=

=

n XY X Y

n X 2 ( X ) 2 n Y 2 ( Y ) 2

13 3857893 68852 13 110.26 36.962

263893.5 254469.6

50152609 47403225 1433.4 1366.0

9423.9

2749384 67.0

9423.9

=

= 0.692

1658.13 8.21

r 2 = 0.479

A correlation coefficient of 0.692 is not particularly high. The

coefficient of determination, r2, indicates that the model explains

only 47.9% of the overall variation. Therefore, while the model

does provide an estimate of GPA, there is considerable variation

in GPA, which is as yet unexplained. For

(b) X = 350: Y = 1.03 + 0.0034 350 = 2.22

(c) X = 800: Y = 1.03 + 0.0034 800 = 3.75

Note: When solving this problem, care must be taken to interpret

significant digits. Also note that X = 800 is outside the range of the

data set used to determine the regression relationship, so caution is

advised.

4.47(a)There is not a strong linear trend in sales over time.

(b, c)Amit wants to forecast by exponential smoothing (setting

Februarys forecast equal to Januarys sales) with alpha =

0.1. Barbara wants to use a 3-period moving average.

January

February

March

April

May

Sales

Amit

400

380

410

375

405

400

398

399.2

396.8

396.67

388.33

MAD =

20.0

12.0

24.2

8.22

16.11

Barbara Error

21.67

16.67

19.17

Barbaras moving average does not start until month 4. Also

note that the MAD for Amit is an average of 4 numbers,

while Barbaras is only 2.

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

4.48(a)

45

4.49(a) (Continued)

Quarter

Contracts X

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Totals

Average

153

172

197

178

185

199

205

226

1,515

189.375

Sales Y

8

10

15

9

12

13

12

16

95

11.875

23,409

29,584

38,809

31,684

34,225

39,601

42,025

51,076

290,413

64

100

225

81

144

169

144

256

1,183

0.6 =

Deposits (Y )

Forecast

|Error|

XY

1,224

1,720

2,955

1,602

2,220

2,587

2,460

3,616

18,384

Year

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

b = (18384 8 189.375 11.875)/(290,413 8 189.375

40

189.375) = 0.1121

41

a = 11.875 0.1121 189.375 = 9.3495

42

Sales ( y) = 9.349 + 0.1121 (Contracts)

43

44

(b)

TOTALS

r = (8 18384 1515 95) ((8 290,413 15152 )(8 1183 952AVERAGE

))

= 0.8963

Sxy = 1183 ( 9.3495 95) (0.112 18384 / 6) = 1.3408

Year

Year

0.6 =

Deposits (Y ) Forecast

|Error|

Error2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

0.25

0.24

0.24

0.26

0.25

0.30

0.31

0.32

0.24

0.26

0.25

0.33

0.50

0.95

1.70

2.30

2.80

2.80

2.70

3.90

4.90

5.30

6.20

4.10

4.50

6.10

7.70

10.10

15.20

0.00

0.0001

0.0000

0.0003

0.00

0.0023

0.0008

0.0004

0.0051

0.0000

0.0002

0.0055

0.0399

0.2808

0.925

0.9698

0.7990

0.1278

0.0018

1.4816

2.2108

0.9895

1.6845

2.499

0.0540

2.2712

4.8524

10.7658

41.1195

0.25

0.25

0.244

0.241

0.252

0.251

0.280

0.298

0.311

0.268

0.263

0.255

0.300

0.420

0.738

1.315

1.906

2.442

2.656

2.682

3.413

4.305

4.90

5.680

4.732

4.592

5.497

6.818

8.787

0.00

0.01

0.004

0.018

0.002

0.048

0.029

0.021

0.071

0.008

0.013

0.074

0.199

0.529

0.961

0.984

0.893

0.357

0.043

1.217

1.486

0.994

1.297

1.580

0.232

1.507

2.202

3.281

6.412

(Continued)

12.6350

15.9140

20.8256

23.69

27.6561

32.6624

31.72

31.71

35.784

43.0536

46.6814

52.1526

62.9210

67.7084

74.5434

r 2 = .8034

4.49(a)

18.10

24.10

25.60

30.30

36.00

31.10

31.70

38.50

47.90

49.10

55.80

70.10

70.90

79.10

94.00

787.30

17.8932

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

Error2

5.46498

29.8660

8.19

67.01

4.774

22.7949

6.60976

43.69

8.34390

69.62

1.56244

2.44121

0.024975 0.000624

6.79

46.1042

12.116

146.798

6.046

36.56

9.11856

83.1481

17.9474

322.11

7.97897

63.66

11.3916

129.768

19.4566

378.561

150.3

1,513.22

3.416

34.39

(MAD)

(MSE)

Standard error = 6.07519

Period (X)

Deposits (Y )

Forecast

Error2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

0.25

0.24

0.24

0.26

0.25

0.30

0.31

0.32

0.24

0.26

0.25

0.33

0.50

0.95

1.70

2.30

2.80

2.80

2.70

3.90

4.90

5.30

6.20

4.10

4.50

6.10

7.70

10.10

15.20

18.10

24.10

25.60

30.30

36.00

17.330

15.692

14.054

12.415

10.777

9.1387

7.50

5.8621

4.2238

2.5855

0.947

0.691098

2.329

3.96769

5.60598

7.24427

8.88257

10.52

12.1592

13.7974

15.4357

17.0740

18.7123

20.35

21.99

23.6272

25.2655

26.9038

28.5421

30.18

31.8187

33.46

35.0953

36.7336

309.061

253.823

204.31

160.662

121.594

89.0883

61.0019

38.2181

19.9254

8.09681

1.43328

0.130392

3.34667

9.10642

15.2567

24.4458

36.9976

59.6117

89.4756

97.9594

111.0

138.628

156.558

264.083

305.862

307.203

308.547

282.367

178.011

145.936

59.58

61.73

22.9945

0.5381

46

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Method used:

MAD

MSE

Standard error using

n 2 in denominator

Correlation coefficient

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

TOTALS

AVERAGE

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

31.10

31.70

38.50

47.90

49.10

55.80

70.10

70.90

79.10

94.00

990.00

787.30

22.50

17.893

38.3718

40.01

41.6484

43.2867

44.9250

46.5633

48.2016

49.84

51.4782

53.1165

52.8798

69.0585

9.91266

21.2823

17.43

85.3163

479.54

443.528

762.964

1,671.46

7,559.

95

171.817

(MSE)

a

b

17.636

13.5936

Coefficients:

GSP Deposits

Year

(X)

(Y ) Forecast

|Error|

Error2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

0.40

0.40

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.00

1.40

1.70

1.30

1.20

1.10

0.90

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.60

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.90

1.90

2.30

2.50

2.80

2.90

3.40

0.25

0.24

0.24

0.26

0.25

0.30

0.31

0.32

0.24

0.26

0.25

0.33

0.50

0.95

1.70

2.30

2.80

2.80

2.70

3.90

4.90

5.30

6.20

4.10

4.50

6.10

12.198

12.4482

12.198

12.4382

10.839

11.0788

8.12

8.38

5.4014 5.65137

4.0420 4.342

1.39545 1.08545

5.47354 5.15354

0.036086 0.203914

1.3233 1.58328

2.6826 2.93264

5.4014 5.73137

1.3233 1.82328

1.3233 2.27328

1.3233 3.02328

4.11418 1.81418

2.75481 0.045186

4.11418 1.31418

5.47354 2.77354

8.19227 4.29227

8.19227 3.29227

13.6297 8.32972

16.3484 10.1484

20.4265 16.3265

21.79

17.29

28.5827 22.4827

154.957

154.71

122.740

70.226

31.94

18.8530

1.17820

26.56

0.041581

2.50676

8.60038

32.8486

3.32434

5.16779

9.14020

3.29124

0.002042

1.727

7.69253

18.4236

10.8390

69.3843

102.991

266.556

298.80

505.473

Exponential

Smoothing

Linear Regression

(Trend Analysis)

Linear Regression

3.416

34.39

6.075

Y = 18.968 +

1.638 YEAR

10.587

171.817

13.416

Y = 17.636 +

13.59364 GSP

10.255

204.919

14.651

0.846

0.813

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

TOTALS

AVERAGE

3.80

4.10

4.00

4.00

3.90

3.80

3.80

3.70

4.10

4.10

4.00

4.50

4.60

4.50

4.60

4.60

4.70

5.00

7.70

10.10

15.20

18.10

24.10

25.60

30.30

36.00

31.10

31.70

38.50

47.90

49.10

55.80

70.10

70.90

79.10

94.00

34.02

38.0983

36.74

36.74

35.3795

34.02

34.02

32.66

38.0983

38.0983

36.74

43.5357

44.8951

43.5357

44.8951

44.8951

46.2544

50.3325

26.32

27.9983

21.54

18.64

11.2795

8.42018

3.72018

3.33918

6.99827

6.39827

1.76

4.36428

4.20491

12.2643

25.20

26.00

32.8456

43.6675

451.223

10.2551

(MAD)

692.752

783.90

463.924

347.41

127.228

70.8994

13.8397

11.15

48.9757

40.9378

3.10146

19.05

17.6813

150.412

635.288

676.256

1,078.83

1,906.85

9,016.45

204.92

(MSE)

trend analysis is the appropriate choice. Measures of

error and goodness-of-fit are really irrelevant.

Exponential smoothing provides a forecast only of

deposits for the next yearand thus does not address

the five-year forecast problem. In order to use the

regression model based upon GSP, one must first

develop a model to forecast GSP, and then use the

forecast of GSP in the model to forecast deposits. This

requires the development of two modelsone of which

(the model for GSP) must be based solely on time as the

independent variable (time is the only other variable we

are given).

(b)One could make a case for exclusion of the older data.

Were we to exclude data from roughly the first 25 years,

the forecasts for the later years would likely be

considerably more accurate. Our argument would be that

a change that caused an increase in the rate of growth

appears to have taken place at the end of that period.

Exclusion of this data, however, would not change our

choice of forecasting model because we still need to

forecast deposits for a future five-year period.

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

additional 13 problems that you may wish to assign.

4.50

(a)

(b)

(c)

Week

10

Forecast

Registration

Nave

2-week moving

4-week moving

22

21

22

25

21

21.5

27

25

23

35

27

26

23.75

29

35

31

27

33

29

32

29

37

33

31

31

41

37

35

33.5

37

41

39

35

37

39

37

47

48

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

4.51

(c)Based on

a Mean Absolute

Deviation

criterion,Absolute

the

Sales

Three-Month

Moving Average

Moving

Deviation

Month

January

Exponentially Smoothed Forecast

February

7

5

March

9

5 + 0.2 (7 5) = 5.4

April

5

5.4 + 0.2 (9 5.4) = 6.12

May

9

6.12 + 0.2 (5 6.12) = 5.90

June

13

5.90 + 0.2 (9 5.90) = 6.52

July

8

6.52 + 0.2 (13 6.52) = 7.82

August

Forecast

7.82 + 0.2 (8 7.82) = 7.86

September

October

November

Forecast

|Error|

December

Error2

January

100

5

25

February

110

2

4

120

3

9

130

0

0

10

38

Period

Demand

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

4.52

Actual

95

108

123

130

4.53(a)3-month moving average:

Month

Sales

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

January

February

11

14

16

10

15

17

11

14

17

12

14

16

11

Three-Month

Moving Average

Absolute

Deviation

(14 + 16 + 10)/3 = 13.33

(16 + 10 + 15)/3 = 13.67

(10 + 15 + 17)/3 = 14.00

(15 + 17 + 11)/3 = 14.33

(17 + 11 + 14)/3 = 14.00

(11 + 14 + 17)/3 = 14.00

(14 + 17 + 12)/3 = 14.33

(17 + 12 + 14)/3 = 14.33

(12 + 14 + 16)/3 = 14.00

(14 + 16 + 11)/3 = 13.67

3.67

1.67

3.33

3.00

0.33

3.00

2.00

0.33

1.67

3.00

= 22.00

MAD = 2.20

(b)3-month weighted moving average

11

preferred over the 3-month weighted moving average

14

with MAD = 2.72.

16

(d)Other

factors

a more complex

10

(1 that

11 +might

2 14be

+ included

3 16)/6 =in14.50

15 model are interest

(1 14 +rates

2 16

+ 3cycle

10)/6

12.67 factors.

and

or=seasonal

17

(1 16 + 2 10 + 3 15)/6 = 13.50

4.54(a)

11

(1 10 + 2 15 + 3 17)/6 = 15.17

14

(1 15 + 2Cumulative

17 + 3 11)/6 = 13.67

Actual

Cum. Tracking

17

17 + 2 Error

11 + 3 14)/6

= 13.50

Week Miles

Forecast(1 Error

|Error|

MAD Signal

1217

11 + 2 14 + 3 17)/6

= 15.00

1

17.00 (1 0.00

0.00

0

1421

14 + 2 17

+ 3 12)/6

= 14.00

2

17.00 (1 4.00

4.00

4.00

2

2

1619

17 + 2 12

+ 3 14)/6

= 13.831.73 3

3

17.80 (1 1.20

5.20

5.20

1123

12 + 2 10.16

14 + 3 16)/6

= 14.672.54 4

4

18.04 (1 4.96

10.16

14 + 2 16

+ 3 11)/6

= 13.172.24 4

5

18

19.03 (1 +1.03

9.13

11.19

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

16

20

18

22

20

15

22

18.83

18.26

18.61

18.49

19.19

19.35

18.48

+2.83

1.74

+0.61

3.51

0.81

+4.35

3.52

6.30

8.04

7.43

10.94

11.75

7.40

10.92

14.02

15.76

16.37

19.88

20.69

25.04

28.56

2.34

2.7

= 27.17

2.25

3.6

MAD = 2.72

2.05

3.6

2.21 5

2.07

5.7

2.28

3.2

2.38

4.6

(c)The cumulative error and tracking signals appear to

be consistently negative, and at week 10, the tracking

signal exceeds 5 MADs.

4.55

x2

xy

7

9

5

11

10

13

55

1

2

3

4

5

6

21

1

4

9

16

25

36

91

7

18

15

44

50

78

212

y = 9.17

x = 3.5

y = 5.27 + 1.11x

Period 7 forecast = 13.07

Period 12 forecast = 18.64, but this is far outside the range

of valid data.

4.50

2.33

3.50

4.17

0.33

3.50

3.00

0.00

2.17

3.67

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

multiply each seasonalized index by the appropriate trend forecast.

Y

= Index Y

Seasonal

III

4.57

Mon

Tue

Wed

178

180

176

178

178

250

250

260

260

255

Thu

215

213

220

225

218.3

n X ( X ) 2 n Y 2 ( Y ) 2

5 70 15 20

350 300

50

=

=

50 250

275 225 650 400

50

=

= 0.45

111.80

Quarter II: YII = 0.90 140,000 = 126,000

Quarter III: Y = 0.75 160,000 = 120,000

210

215

220

225

217.5

n XY X Y

2

Trend forecast

Hence, for

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Averages

r=

49

Fri

Sat

160

165

175

176

169

180

185

190

190

186.3

(a)Seasonal indices:

1.066 (Mon)0.873 (Tue)1.25 (Wed)

1.07 (Thu)0.828 (Fri)0.913 (Sat)

0.18(25) 1.066 = 219.9 rounded to 220

Forecast

correlation between bank deposits and consumer price indices in

221 (Thu) 171 (Fri)189 (Sat)

(b)4000 + 0.20(25,000) = 9,000

4.59(a)35 + 20(80) + 50(3.0) = 1,785

(b)35 + 20(70) + 50(2.5) = 1,560

4.60Given: X = 15, Y = 20, XY = 70, X2 = 55, Y2 = 130,

X = 3, Y = 4

XY nXY

(a)

b=

X 2 nX 2

a = Y bX

70 5 3 4 70 60 10

b=

=

=

=1

55 45 10

55 5 32

a = 4 1 3 = 4 3 = 1

Y = 1 + 1X

decrease), the other tends to increase (or decrease).

4.60(c)Standard error of the estimate:

50

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Syx =

=

Y 2 a Y b XY

130 1 20 1 70

=

n2

3

130 20 70

=

3

40

= 13.3 = 3.65

3

4.61

Column Totals

X2

Y2

XY

2

1

4

5

3

4

1

4

6

5

4

1

16

25

9

16

1

16

36

25

8

1

16

30

15

15

20

55

94

70

Given: Y = a + bX where:

b=

XY nXY

X 2 nX 2

a = Y bX

and X = 15, Y = 20, XY = 70, X2 = 55, Y2 = 94, X = 3,

Y = 4. Then:

b=

70 5 4 3

55 5 3

a = 4 1 3 = 1.0

2

70 60

= 1.0

55 45

r=

n XY X Y

n X 2 ( X ) 2 n Y 2 ( Y ) 2

5 70 15 20

5 55 152 5 94 202

50

50

=

= 0.845

50 70 59.16

350 300

275 225 470 400

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

487

525

575

527

540

502

508

573

508

498

485

526

552

587

608

597

612

603

628

605

627

578

585

581

632

656

121

144

169

196

225

256

289

324

361

400

441

484

529

576

625

676

729

784

841

900

961

1,024

1,089

1,156

1,225

1,296

5,357

6,300

7,475

7,378

8,100

8,032

8,636

10,314

9,652

9,960

10,185

11,572

12,696

14,088

15,200

15,522

16,524

16,884

18,212

18,150

19,437

18,496

19,305

19,754

22,120

23,616

237,169

275,625

330,625

277,729

291,600

252,004

258,064

328,329

258,064

248,004

235,225

276,676

304,704

344,569

369,664

356,409

374,544

363,609

394,384

366,025

393,129

334,084

342,225

337,561

399,424

430,336

666

19,366

16,206

378,661

10,558,246

Syx =

=

Y 2 a Y b XY

=

n2

94 1 20 1 70

52

94 20 70

= 1.333 = 1.15

3

6.41 + 0.533 days rain.

CASE STUDIES

SOUTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY: B

throughout the text.

1.One way to address the case is with separate forecasting models

for each game. Clearly, the homecoming game (week 2) and the

fourth game (craft festival) are unique attendance situations.

Forecasts

2010

2011

Game

Model

1

2

3

4

5

Total

y = 30,713 + 2,534x

y = 37,640 + 2,146x

y = 36,940 + 1,560x

y = 22,567 + 2,143x

y = 30,440 + 3,146x

48,453

52,660

47,860

37,567

52,460

239,000

50,988

54,806

49,420

39,710

55,606

250,530

R2

0.92

0.90

0.91

0.88

0.93

2.Revenue in 2010 = (239,000) ($50/ticket) = $11,950,000

Revenue in 2011 = (250,530) ($52.50/ticket) = $13,152,825

Totals

Average

b=

Objectives:

upon a plot of the data.

quantitative model in situations where technological change is

occurring.

model might be appropriate for forecasting. Using linear trend

you obtain the following:

x

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

480

436

482

448

458

489

498

430

444

496

x2

1

4

9

16

25

36

49

64

81

100

xy

480

872

1,446

1,792

2,290

2,934

3,486

3,440

3,996

4,960

y2

230,400

190,096

232,324

200,704

209,464

239,121

248,004

184,900

197,136

246,016

537.9

450.2

10,518.4

x nx

16,206 (36 18.5 )

a = y bx = 537.9 5.25 18.5 = 440.85

capacity. With this appearing to be a continuing trend, the time

has come for a new or expanded stadium.

18.5

xy nx y

r=

51

293,284.6

20390.0

= 5.25

3885.0

n xy x y

[ n x ( x )2 ][ n y2 ( y)2 ]

2

(36)(378,661) (666)(19,366)

[(36) (16,206) (666)2 ][(36)(10,558,246) (19,366)2 ]

13,631,796 12,897,756

[(583,416) (443,556)][380,096,856) (375,041,956)]

737,040

[139,860][5,054,900]

734,040

706,978,314,000

734,040

= .873

840,820

r 2 = .76

y = 440.85 + 5.25 (time)

r = 0.873 indicating a reasonably good fit

The student should report the linear trend results, but deflate

the forecast obtained based upon qualitative information about

industry and technology trends.

Because there is limited seasonality in the data, the linear

trend analysis above provides a good r2 of .76.

However, a more precise forecast can be developed addressing

the seasonality issue, which is done below. Methods a and c yield r2

of .85 and .86, respectively, and methods b and d, which also center

the seasonal adjustment, yield r2 of .93 and .94, respectively.

2.Four approaches to decomposition of The Digital Cell Phone

data can address seasonality, as follows:

52

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

Cases = 443.87 + 5.08 (time), r2 = .85, MAD = 20.89

b) Multiplicative Seasonal Model, with centered moving averages

(CMA), which is not covered in our text but can be seen in

Render, Stair, and Hannas Quantitative Analysis for

Management, 10th ed., Prentice Hall Publishing.

Cases = 432.28 + 5.73 (time), r2 = .93, MAD = 12.84

c) Additive seasonal model,

For the instructor who asks other questions than this one:

r2 = 0.8869

Std. error = 5.062

THE NORTH-SOUTH AIRLINE

Cases = 431.31 + 5.72 (time), r2 = .94, MAD = 12.28

The two methods that use the average of all data have very

similar results, and the two CMA methods also look quite close. As

suggested with this analysis, CMA is typically the better technique.

FORECASTING AT HARD ROCK CAFE

Year

Airframe Cost

per Aircraft

Engine Cost

per Aircraft

Average

Age (hrs)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

51.80

54.92

69.70

68.90

63.72

84.73

78.74

43.49

38.58

51.48

58.72

45.47

50.26

79.60

6512

8404

11077

11717

13275

15215

18390

Year

Airframe Cost

per Aircraft

Engine Cost

per Aircraft

Average

Age (hrs)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

13.29

25.15

32.18

31.78

25.34

32.78

35.56

18.86

31.55

40.43

22.10

19.69

32.58

38.07

5107

8145

7360

5773

7150

9364

8259

and filmed specifically for this text that supplements this case.

1.Hard Rock uses forecasting for (1) sales (guest counts) at cafes,

(2) retail sales, (3) banquet sales, (4) concert sales, (5) evaluating

managers, and (6) menu planning. They could also employ these

techniques to forecast: retail store sales of individual (SKU) product

demands; sales of each entre; sales at each work station, etc.

2.The POS system captures all the basic sales data needed to

drive individual cafes scheduling/ordering. It also is aggregated

at corporate HQ. Each entre sold is counted as one guest at a

Hard Rock Cafe.

3.The weighting system is subjective, but is reasonable. More

weight is given to each of the past 2 years than to 3 years ago.

This system actually protects managers from large sales variations

outside their control. One could also justify a 50%30%20%

model or some other variation.

4.Other predictors of cafe sales could include season of year

(weather); hotel occupancy; spring break from colleges; beef

prices; promotional budget; etc.

5.Y = a + bx

Month

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Totals

Average

b=

Advertising X

14

17

25

25

35

35

45

50

60

60

366

36.6

Guest Count Y

21

24

27

32

29

37

43

43

54

66

376

37.6

X2

Y2

196

441

289

576

625

729

625 1,024

1,225

841

1,225 1,369

2,025 1,849

2,500 1,849

3,600 2,916

3,600 4,356

15,910 15,950

XY

294

408

675

800

1,015

1,295

1,935

2,150

3,240

3,960

15,772

can develop the following regression equations for the variables

of interest:

Northern AirlinesAirframe Maintenance Cost:

Cost = 36.10 + 0.0026 Airframe age

Coefficient of determination = 0.7695

Coefficient of correlation = 0.8772

Northern AirlinesEngine Maintenance Cost:

Cost = 20.57 + 0.0026 Airframe age

Coefficient of determination = 0.6124

Coefficient of correlation = 0.7825

Southeast AirlinesAirframe Maintenance Cost:

Cost = 4.60 + 0.0032 Airframe age

Coefficient of determination = 0.3905

Coefficient of correlation = 0.6249

Southeast AirlinesEngine Maintenance Cost;

Cost = 0.67 + 0.0041 Airframe age

Coefficient of determination = 0.4600

Coefficient of correlation = 0.6782

The following graphs portray both the actual data and the

regression lines for airframe and engine maintenance costs for

both airlines.

= 0.7996 .8

15,910 10 36.62

a = 37.6 0.7996 36.6 = 8.3363 8.3

Y = 8.3363 + 0.7996 X

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall.

CHAPTER 4F O R E C A S T I N G

www.pearsonhighered.com/heizer, and at www.myomlab.com.

53

Southeast Airlines: The relationships between maintenance costs and airframe age for Southeast Airlines are

much less well defined. It is even more obvious that

airframe age is not the only important factorperhaps not

even the most important factor.

Northern Airlines has the smallest variance in maintenance costsindicating that its day-to-day management

of maintenance is working pretty well.

than of airframe age.

Airlines are not only lower, but more nearly similar than

those for Northern Airlines. From the graphs, at least, they

appear to be rising more sharply with age.

may perform more efficiently on sporadic or emergency

repairs, and Northern Airlines may place more emphasis

on preventive maintenance.

be made to be a function of airframe age by implementing

more effective management practices.

airlines should be investigated.

The data with which she is currently working does not

provide conclusive results.

Note that the two graphs have been drawn to the same scale

to facilitate comparisons between the two airlines.

Concluding Comment:

The question always arises, with this case, as to whether the data

should be merged for the two airlines, resulting in two regressions

instead of four. The solution provided is that of the consultant

who was hired to analyze the data. The airlines own internal

analysts also conducted regressions, but did merge the data sets.

This shows how statisticians can take different views of the same

data.

Comparison:

between maintenance costs and airframe age for Northern

Airlines. There is certainly reason to conclude, however,

that airframe age is not the only important factor.

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