Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com Tax Revenues - 2013 year

Issue #18

Economic

M04.02.2014

The completion rate of state budget in 2013 is 91%.Correspondingly, there is the lack of 608.9 mln GEL in state budget. In 2013 Budget revenue decreased (-2.1%) compared to 2012. Tax Revenue (-0.2%) as well as grants (-23.3%) and other revenues (-13.3%) also decreased. Based on the preliminary data, the indicator of Tax burden in 2013 (tax revenues/GDP) (24.8%) reduced in comparison with the corresponding indicator for 2012 (25.5%). In 2013, the total revenue from VAT and Income taxes is 4,782.3 mln. GEL. Taking into account GDP growth (3.1%) , which is based on the turnover of VAT payer enterprises) and inflation rates (-0.5%) in the mentioned period, the total revenue from VAT and Income taxes should have been 4,928.8 mln. GEL. The volume of import increased slightly (0.4%), thus this change would not have large effect on the change of VAT revenue. This indicates lack of 146.8 mln.
7000 6000 5000
mln.GEL

GEL (4,928.8 - 4782.3 =146.8 mln.GEL).

4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2011 2012

Tax Revenues

In 2013, tax revenues decreased (-0.2%) in comparison with 2012 .

mln.GEL

Tax Revenues
800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 May

2013

In 2013 the revenues from income (9.6%), property (0.3%) and excise (9.5%) taxes increased, while the revenues from VAT (-6.3%), profit (-5.2%) and import (-0.8%) taxes declined.

Jun 2012

Jul

Aug 2013

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

VAT Revenue
330 310 290
mln.GEL

270 250 230 210 190 170 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2011 Jun 2012 Jul Aug 2013 Sep Oct Nov Dec

It is noteworthy, that in 2013 the VAT decreased (-6.3%), while GDP grew (3.1%) 1. This can be ex-

plained by the growth of those sectors of GDP, the production of which are not fully taxed by VAT (e.i agriculture,financial activity,education), also by the growth of export (it is exempt from VAT) or may be tax collection was not properly administered.

1. Forecast of GDP growth by GEOSTAT, based on the VAT payer

enterprises turnover, fiscal and monetary indicators.

Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com Tax Revenues - 2013 year VAT revenue in December 2013 is determined based on the turnover of the VAT payer enterprises in November 2013, as they pay VAT by the 15th day of the next month and also based on the volume of import, which is taxed by VAT.
The growth rate of VAT payers' turnover and VAT revenue
30% 25%
growht rate com pared to previous year (%)

Economic

NIssue #18

M04.02.2014

28.1% 25.0% 17.6% 19.8% 17.2% 15.50%

20% 15% 12.5% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25%

4.0%

6.3%

10.7%

5.8% -1.6%

5.7% 6.50%

In November 2013, the turnover of the VAT payer enterprises increased (15.5%) the volume of import increased (21%) in December 2013. Accordingly, the revenue from VAT increased (6.5%) in December 2013, but the growth rate of the revenue from VAT is less than the growth rate of the VAT enterprises turnover and the volume of import.

-2.7% -3.3% -5.6% -13.0% -17.7%

-1.5%

-5.3% -14.8%

-2.1%

-24.8%

Sept

Sept

Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Dec

Nov

June

2013 Jan

June

May

May

March

2012 Feb

Turnover growth rate of VAT payers (compared to previous year)

March

Growth rate of VAT revenue

Income Tax Revenue

250 230 210 190
mln.GEL

170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 May Jun 2012 Jul Aug Sep 2013 Oct Nov Dec

In December 2013, the revenue from income tax increased (12%) in comparison with the December 2012.

In 2013 income tax revenue grew (9.6%) in com-

parison with the corresponding indicator in 2012, which is due to the onetime payment in March 2013.

Basic Economic Indicators

Nominal GDP in current prices (mln USD)
Per capita GDP (USD) GDP real growth, percent Consumer Price Index (Annual Average) Foreign Direct Investment (USD) Unemployment Rate External Public Debt (mln USD) Poverty Level (Registered)

I12
3414.8 759.2 6.60%

II12
3971.9

III12
4129 918 7.50%

IV12
4332.2 963.2 3,0%

2012
15 846.8 3 523.4 6.2% 99.1 911.6 15% 4357.1 9.7%

I 13*
3487.6 777.8 2.4%

II 13*
3958.4 882.8 1.5%

III 13*
4120.3 918.9 1.4%

Contact Information

883.1
8.20%

PMCG Research

Tamar Jugheli
E-mail: research@pmcg.ge
www.pmcg-i.com E-mail: t.jugheli@pmcg.ge T: (+995) 2 921171

261.2 -

217.7
-

199 -

233.7

226.2

232.4

238.7

Source:

National Statistics Office of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia, National Bank of Georgia

*preliminary data

-2-

Nov

Dec

Feb

Oct

July

July

Oct