Thomas Bayes

English theologian and mathematician Thomas Bayes (1702 April 17, 1761) is belie ed to be the !irst to treat probability ind"cti ely# $ne o! the !o"nders o! this discipline, Blaise %ascal, claimed that probability is only common sense red"ced to calc"lation# %robability is the science o! "ncertainty# &t is not 'no(n (hat is going to happen, only that in some sit"ations it is belie ed that it is possible to assign some sort o! meas"rement to ario"s possible o"tcomes# Bayes established a mathematical basis !or probability in!erence, that is, calc"lating the probability an e ent (ill occ"r in the !"t"re !rom the !re)"ency that it has occ"rred in the past#

Born in *ondon, Bayes (as ed"cated pri ately and li'e his !ather (as ordained a noncon!ormist minister# At !irst he assisted his !ather, b"t in the late 1720+s he too' the position o! minister at the %resbyterian ,hapel in T"nbridge -ells, staying "ntil he retired in 17.2# Thro"gho"t his li!e he maintained a 'een interest in mathematics, and most especially in the areas o! probability and statistics# /e (as elected a member o! the 0oyal 1ociety a!ter de!ending the ie(s and philosophy o! 1ir &saac 2e(ton in a 1736 reply to the criticism o! Bishop Ber'eley#

&n a no( !amo"s essay, 4To(ards 1ol ing a %roblem in the 5octrine o! ,hances,6 Bayes stated and sol ed the problem7 48i en the n"mber o! times in (hich an "n'no(n e ent has happened and !ailed7 0e)"ired the chance that the probability o! it happening in a single trial lies some(here bet(een any t(o degrees o! probability that can be named#6

Bayes+ )"estion is an e9ample o! an 4in erse problem#6 &! one 'no(s that a certain e ent E occ"rs (ith

probability p, one can calc"late the probability that E occ"rs m times o"t o! n trials# This is a 4direct problem#6 Bayes t"rns it aro"nd and see's the correct al"e o! p (the probability o! E) based on the res"lts on n trials# The article (as posth"mo"sly p"blished in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London by his !riend 0ichard %rice#

Bayes+ (or' laid the !o"ndation o! modern Bayesian statistics, (hich attempts to calc"late the probability o! an e ent !rom a consideration o! that e ent occ"rring together (ith a consideration o! any rele ant e idence# %ierre de *aplace accepted Bayes+ concl"sions in a memoir in 17:1, b"t 8eorge Boole challenged them in his The Laws of Thought (1:.;)# They ha e been contro ersial e ery since# Beginning in the 1<.0s, many statisticians ad ocated Bayesian methods as a sol"tion !or speci!ic de!iciencies !o"nd in standard statistical theory#

Bayes+s de!inition o! probability starts !rom a di!!erent basis than those (ho treat the (ord 4probability6 as a synonym !or 4!re)"ency6 or 4!raction o! e ents#6 The position o! Bayesians is that probability meas"res 4strength o! belie!#6 They arg"e that there is a s"b=ecti e element in logical ded"ction and a probability assignment is a combination o! (hat yo" belie e and (hat the data tell yo" to belie e# >or a Bayesian, probability is de!ined as 4o"r best possible appro9imation o! (hat (ill act"ally occ"r#6 >rom this it is seen that Bayes regarded probability as a 'ind o! betting ratio and tried to deri e the la(s o! probability !rom this interpretation# /e !o"nd a sol"tion !or his problem by means o! an ingenio"s geometric representation# &n his theory probabilities can be assigned only to e ents that either do or do not occ"r, other(ise a bet ma'es no sense#

&! it is possible thro"gh belie!s abo"t a hypothesis to assign probabilities to e ents and i! an additional obser ation abo"t the hypothesis (hose degree o! reliability is 'no(n or can be estimated is obtained, then it is possible to re ise one+s original probability distrib"tion o! e ents, th"s re!lecting the res"lting

belie!s gi en by the additional in!ormation# Bayes Theorem asserts that it is possible to "se conditional probability to ma'e predictions in re erse# That is, statistics collected on the occ"rrence o! some e ent can be "sed to predict !"t"re similar occ"rrences# &n sports, statistics o! all 'inds are 'ept, (hich help managers and coaches ma'e decisions# &n an article 41"bconscio"sly, Athletes ?ay %lay *i'e 1tatisticians,6 (hich appeared in the New York Times on @an"ary 20, 200;, 5# *eonhardt asserts that the Bayesian tho"ght process is that (hich is "sed (hen 4"ncertainty becomes great eno"gh to gi e past e9perience an edge o er c"rrent obser ation#6

The short !orm o! Bayes theorem is "sed to !ind the conditional probability o! e ent A gi en the probability o! e ent B (A 0)# A is the complement o! e ent A# The conditional probability o! A gi en that e ent B occ"rred, symboliBed by %(ACB) is gi en by the !orm"la7 % (A) D % (BCA) %(ACB) E FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF %(A) D % (BCA) G %(AH) D %(BCAH) The le!tFhand side o! the e)"ation is 'no(n as the 4posterior probability#6 &t is the ad="sted probability o! e ent A gi en that it is 'no(n that e ent B has occ"rred# The terms %(A) and %(AH) are the probabilities o! e ents A and A H respecti ely# %(A) is the probability assigned to e ent A prior to the introd"ction o! the additional in!ormation B# &t is called the 4prior probability#6 %(A ) is the probability that A doesn+t occ"r, that is %(A ) E 1 F %(A)# The term %(BCA) is the conditional probability o! B gi en that A occ"rred, that is, the probability that the additional obser ation B (o"ld occ"r i! the original e ent A happened# %(BCA ) is the probability o! B gi en that A occ"rred, that is, the probability that the additional obser ation occ"rred i! it is 'no( the e ent A did not occ"r#

As an ill"stration, s"ppose that there are t(o bo9es, each containing comp"ter printer cartridges# The !irst bo9 has 30 blac' cartridges and 10 colored cartridges, (hile bo9 t(o has 20 blac' and 20 colored#

&! someone randomly chooses a bo9 and then randomly chooses a cartridge !rom the bo9, (hat is the probability that the cartridge came !rom bo9 one i! it is blac'I *et A be the e ent that bo9 one (as chosen, then AH is the e ent that bo9 one (as not chosen, that is, bo9 t(o (as chosen# *et B be the e ent that the chosen cartridge (as blac'# 1ince the bo9 (as chosen randomly, %(A) E %(AH) E J# >rom the contents o! the bo9es it is 'no(n that %(BCA), the probability that a blac' cartridge (as chosen gi en that bo9 one (as chosen is K and %!BCAH), the probability that the cartridge (as blac' gi en that bo9 one (as not chosen is J# 1"bstit"ting these al"es in the !orm"la o! Bayes theorem and (e !ind that %(ACB), the probability that the !irst bo9 (as chosen gi en that the cartridge is blac', is 3C.#

Quotation of the Day: 4& no( send yo" an essay (hich & ha e !o"nd among the papers o! o"r
deceased !riend ?r# Bayes, and (hich, in my opinion, has great meritL# &n an introd"ction (hich he has (rit to this Essay, he says, that his design at !irst in thin'ing o! the s"b=ect o! it (as, to !ind o"t a method by (hich (e might ="dge concerning the probability that an e ent has to happen, in gi en circ"mstances, "pon s"pposition that (e 'no( nothing concerning it b"t that, "nder the same circ"mstances, it has happened a certain n"mber o! times, and !ailed a certain other n"mber o! times#6 0ichard %rice, part o! his letter to the 0oyal 1ociety#