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ASPECTE PRIVIND EVOLUIA FENOMENUL TERRORIST

Mr. CS II dr. Vasile CARUAU


Academia Forelor Teres re !Nicolae "#lcesc$%

A&s rac ' The complexity of the terrorist phenomenon and its internationalization, as well as the unpredictability that characterizes terrorist organizations in choosing their objectives and means of action make it almost impossible to produce an efficient analysis and prediction model. The analysis of the statistical data combined with different interpolation methods represents one of the tools that can be used in order to predict the different aspects of the terrorist phenomenon. This paper quantitatively analyses the terrorist incidents that occur on a global and regional scale in order to compare the regional and global predictions and to see to what extent they match. The analyses are based on the statistical data recorded during the 1 1!"##$ period as well as on the %atlab software, from which we have used the spline functions& interpolation option by taking account of their properties. A&s rac ' 'nul din aspectele importante referitoare la incidentele
teroriste (l reprezint) num)rul de victime rezultate (n urma acestora. *up) cum se va vedea +i din analiza ulterioar), se constat) o cre+tere alarmant) a num)rului de victime rezultate (n urma incidentelor teroriste, iar declara,iile liderilor acestor organiza,ii sunt +i mai (ngrijor)toare av-nd (n vedere obiectivele +i noua organizare a acestora (n celule cu un num)r redus de oameni +i cu o relativ) independen,). 'nul din obiectivele declarate este accesul la arme +i tehnologii (n urma c)rora s) rezulte un num)r c-t mai mare de victime, prin accesul inclusiv la arme de distrugere (n mas). .n acest articol sunt analizate, din punct de vedere cantitativ, num)rul de victime rezultate (n urma incidentelor teroriste (nregistrate la nivel global +i pe

zone geografice, pentru a vedea (n ce m)sur) predic,iile pe zone geografice se potrivesc cu cele realizate la nivel global. /nalizele au fost realizate pe baza datelor statistice (nregistrate (n perioada 1 1!"##$ +i pentru predic,ie s!a utilizat interpolarea cu func,ii spline a programului %atlab.

(. )e*erali ies 0vident, cel mai important aspect referitor la incidentele teroriste (l reprezint) num)rul de victime rezultate (n urma acestora. *in nefericire, (n urma lor sunt uci+i oameni nevinova,i, (n multe cazuri fiind vorba de copii +i femei. 1ricum am privi motivarea sau argumentele acestor ac,iuni, ele nu pot s) justifice sau s) explice aceast) modalitate crud) de ac,iune. 'n motiv serios de (ngrijorare (l reprezint) preocuparea diferitelor grup)ri teroriste pentru accesul la arme de distrugere (n mas), (n dorin,a ca efectele +i victimele rezultate (n urma ac,iunilor teroriste s) fie c-t mai mari, iar impactul psihologic (n r-ndul popula,iei c-t mai accentuat. .ncep-nd cu anul "##", comunitatea interna,ional) a ini,iat diferite ac,iuni pentru prevenirea accesului acestor grup)ri la materiale utilizate (n realizarea armelor de distrugere (n mas). .n continuare vom prezenta c-teva ini,iative pe plan interna,ional2 3n 4uly "##$, 5resident 6ush and 7ussian 5resident 5utin launched the 8lobal 3nitiative to 9ombat :uclear Terrorism to bring together like!minded nations to work to prevent, protect against, and respond to the threat of nuclear terrorism. Through the 8lobal 3nitiative, partner nations, including the 8!;, will forge political commitments to strengthen our collective capabilities in the fight against terrorism< 3n 4uly "##=, the 9onvention on the 5hysical 5rotection of :uclear %aterial >955:%? was amended to expand its scope to cover not only physical protection during the international transport of nuclear materials for peaceful use but also the physical protection of such materials while in use at facilities and during storage. The

amendments also strengthen the 955:% to address post! @11 nuclear terrorism by criminalizing acts of sabotage against civilian nuclear facilities< 3n 4une "##=, the 5resident signed 0xecutive 1rder 1AA;", authorizing the 8overnment to designate and block the property of B%* proliferators and persons providing support or services to such proliferators. The /nnex to the 0xecutive 1rder identifies eight organizations in :orth Corea, 3ran, and Dyria responsible for B%* and missile programs< 3n Eebruary "##=, the 'nited Dtates and 7ussia established the 6ratislava :uclear Decurity 9ooperation 3nitiative to accelerate and complete nuclear security upgrades in 7ussia by the end of "##;, complete all eligible 7ussia!origin F0' fresh fuel repatriation to 7ussia from third countries by the end of "##$, and complete by the end of "#1# all 7ussia!origin F0' spent fuel shipments back to 7ussia< 3n "##=, the 'nited Dtates facilitated the establishment the 3/0/ 9ommittee on Dafeguards and Gerification to explore ways to strengthen the ability of the 3/0/ to monitor and enforce compliance with the nuclear nonproliferation treaty< 3n "##H, at the Dea 3sland Dummit, the 8!; agreed to implement specific radioactive source export controls. Dubsequently, the 3/0/ 6oard of 8overnors and 8eneral 9onference endorsed these export controls, an important step in denying access to materials that might be used to create a radiological Idirty bomb.J The 'nited Dtates 8overnment continues to work with partner nations to establish a robust export control system within each nation to prevent unintended technology@material transfer< 3n %ay "##H, the 'nited Dtates launched the 8lobal Threat 7eduction 3nitiative >8T73? to further accelerate efforts to identify, secure, remove, and facilitate the disposition of vulnerable high!risk nuclear and other radiological materials around the world. Dince its inception, 8T73 has removed more than nuclear bombs worth of material and secured more than H## radiological sites around the

world containing over $ million curies, enough for about $,### dirty bombs< 3n /pril "##H, '.:. Decurity 9ouncil 7esolution >':D97? 1=H# was adopted. 3t requires states to enact and enforce national legal and regulatory measures to prevent proliferation, particularly to non!state actors, of B%*, their delivery systems, and related materials, including controls on activities that would contribute to proliferation, such as financing< 3n "##A, the *epartment of *efense, under its 9ooperative Threat 7eduction 5rogram, launched the B%* 5roliferation 5revention 3nitiative to assist selected states of the former Doviet 'nion to build capabilities to prevent illegal shipments of B%* and related materials across their borders< 3n %ay "##A, the /dministration launched the 5roliferation Decurity 3nitiative >5D3? to promote international cooperation to interdict B%*!related shipments at sea, in the air, or on land that are flowing to or from state or non!state actors of proliferation concern. %ore than K# countries participate in 5D3 activities. 5D3 partners are also working to expand their activities, including enhanced military, intelligence, and law enforcement actions to shut down proliferation networks< /t the "##" Dummit in Cananaskis, the 8!; launched the 8lobal 5artnership /gainst the Dpread of B%* to increase resources for cooperative nonproliferation, disarmament, counterproliferation, and nuclear safety projects in 7ussia and other former Doviet countries. The 8!K >9anada, Erance, 8ermany, 3taly, 4apan, the 'nited Dtates, and the 'nited Cingdom? and other 5artnership donors have pledged L1K billion toward the L"# billion target, and significant progress is being made on implementing projects in 7ussia. +. Ma ,ema ical modeli*- o. erroris ac io*s 1 analiz) ampl) asupra fenomenului terorist ar trebui s) aib) (n vedere urm)toarele aspecte2

*imensiunea ac,iunii teroriste< 7egiunea unde ac,ioneaz)< Tipul grup)rii< 1biectivele vizate< Tactica utilizat)< Dus,inerea financiar). .n cele ce urmeaz) vom prezenta o analiz) statistic) a num)rului de victime rezultate (n urma incidentelor teroriste (n perioada 1 1! "##$, datele put-nd fi g)site pe site!ul http2@@www.tkb.org. /cest aspect se (ncadreaz) (n problematica dimensiunii ac,iunilor cu caracter terorist (nregistrate la nivel global. .n prima diagram) sunt prezentate num)rul de victime rezultate (n urma incidentelor teroriste la nivel global (n perioada amintit) anterior.
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.n continuare, a+a cum am precizat anterior, dar +i (n alte articole pe acest subiect, vom (ncerca, utiliz-nd ajustarea cu func,ii spline prin intermediul programului %atMab s) facem predic,ii referitoare la num)rul de victime rezultate (n urma incidentelor teroriste at-t la nivel global c-t +i pe zone geografice. *e asemenea, un aspect important al acestei analize (l constituie verificarea gradului (n care datele ob,inute la nivel global sunt (n concordan,) cu cele ob,inute la nivel regional. *in datele pe care le detinem la nivel global se ob,ine urm)toarea estimare2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P Q1 " 1H= HK1 HA= H$" =K1 "= "1K" ;$H K;A H=K1 "K$A "AH$ =#$$ ;1 " 1"#"KR OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P 1K;#K. /ceast) cifr) (nseamn) c) pentru anul "##K se estimeaz) un num)r de 1K;#K de victime (n urma ac,iunilor teroriste care se vor desf)+ura (n acest an.

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.n acela+i fel putem face predic,ii referitoare la num)rul de victime rezultate (n urma ac,iunilor teroriste care se vor desf)+ura (n acest an pe zone geografice. /stfel2 (n /frica avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P Q$ A= =$ 1"$ ;A 1 K ; 1##" A AK "; 1" 1# A # 1;K 1#HR OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P 11K".$< (n /sia 9entral) +i de 0st avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P Q1 # " S "A = 1 KH "1 = 1A A "1 "$ 1 #R OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P "."< (n 0uropa de 0st avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P Q" " A 1K " 11 1" 1AH A=# $= K# AK= "$$ =A$ ;1 $1R OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P "H# . < (n /merica Matin) +i 9araibe avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P QH HA 1# 1"" ; "$ 1# 1H1 $K 1 ; A#K A## 1;= 1HK 1HA 1H R OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P 1$=.;< (n 1rientul %ijlociu +i 8olful 5ersic avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P Q$ AA A= 1H$ ;; 1H" H= 1K1 11K $" "= =$H ;;" "$ H $HK" $##R OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P ;KA$.$< (n /merica de :ord avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P Q" # 1# " 1$; 1 " " A # " ;K A # # # 1R OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P !=H;< (n /sia de Dud avem2

OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P QA; 1K A"K 1 $K 1$1 AA =;# 1 1 " K HA$ 1##$ ;#A ;#1 1#1" 1;KKR OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa PH#KA.H< (n /sia de Dud!0st +i 1ceania avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P QK A 1= 1H " = H# 1H 1$ ;K 1K A$; KA "K; "H# "" R OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa P HH.1< (n 0uropa de Gest avem2 OO x P Q#.1 #." #.A #.H #.= #.$ #.K #.; #. 1 1.1 1." 1.A 1.H 1.= 1.$R y P Q1; 1" 1A K "1 "A =H $ A" A1 1= K 1 H =$ $R OO tempa P spline>x,y,1.K? tempa PK$1.1. /v-nd (n vedere datele obtinute mai inainte putem trage urmatoarele concluzii2 suma num)rului de victime rezultate (n urma ac,iunilor teroriste care se vor desf)+ura (n acest an pe zone geografice este foarte aproape de cifra ob,inut) la nivel global< pentru anul "##K putem prognoya cQ cele mai active yone vor fi 1rientul %ijlociu +i 8olful 5ersic, /sia de Dud +i 0uropa de 0st, iar cele mai lini+tite vor fi /merica de :ord, /sia 9entral) +i de 0st +i /merica Matin) +i 9araibe < cele mai multe victime se vor (nregistra +i (n acest an (n zona 1rientului %ijlociu +i a 8olfului 5ersic, (n "##$ mai mult de trei sferturi din num)rul de victime (nregistrate la nivel global provenind din aceast) zon)< (ngrijor)tor este faptul c) num)rul victimelor rezultate (n urma ac,iunilor teroriste a crescut practic de aproape treizeci ori fa,) de media (nregistrat) prima parte a anilor #.

"i&lio-ra.ie Q1R Gasile 9arutasu, 8hi,) 6-rsan, Aplicatii ale modelarii si simularii actiunilor militare, 0ditura /cademiei Eortelor Terestre, Dibiu, "##$, 11# pagini, 3D6: KA!K;# !$=!A, K;! KA!K;# !$=!# Q"R Gasile 9)ru,a+u, %ircea 9osma, The Statistical Analysis of the Terrorist Phenomenon, K!; %arch, "##K, 6rno, 9zech 7epublic QAR Gasile 9)ru,a+u, Dtoina :eculai, 9onsideraii privind amploarea fenomenului terorist n perioada 1991-200 , Desiunea de comunic)ri +tiin,ifice a '.:./p. cu participare interna,ional), 6ucure+ti, 1H!1= aprilie, "##=, 3D6: KA!$$A!1;"!$ www.tkb.org

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