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Slope Angle as lndicator Parameter of Landsli dm

Susceptibility in a Geologically Complex Area

TI{§ §g*(}Hfi Angelo Donnarumffia, Paola Revellino, Gerardo Grelle, and


\ùl/crrem;
Francesco Maria Guadagno
LnrunffiLril)H il§*nu**

ffi Slope angles are a key parameter in estimating susceptibility to developing earth flows.
In this paper, slope angles are used to estimate potential unstable areas in a pilot sector
of the Benevento province in (Southern ltaly).
Since the study area is characterized by a complex lithological setting, landslide
distribution was analyzed within four-groups of homogeneous litho-technical sequences.
Slope angle frequency distributions were obtained from a landslide sample in accordance
with the Weibull probability density distribution function. Their analysis shows that the
largest occurrence of landslides fall within an interval of slope angles ranging from 9' to
14". As filed surveys confirm, the low frequency of instabilities on steeper slopes can be
explained by a deficit of potentially involving materials, partially due to the presence
of stony sequences. Consequently, the probability of failure was calculated only on slope
angle ranges already affected by existing landslide phenomena.

itt.ffiÈ$
Earth flows . Weibull distribution . Southern Italy

assumptions on which these models are based, are only


lntroduction partially satisfled when the statistical analysis deals with
discrete variables such as for example the slope angle. In
Assessment of the landslide susceptibility and identification this case, analyses carried out by Ohmori and Sugai (1995),
of potentially landslide-prone areas have both experienced Iwahashi et al. (200I, 2003), Korup (2005), Xiaoyi and
extensive advances in scientiflc literature. A variety of Jianping (2006), Guzzettt et al. (2007) and Lee et al. (2008)
methods have been developed using deterministic and statis- were based on the assumption that landslide susceptibility
tical approaches based on slope angle distribution. Statistical does not monotonically increase with an increase in the
analysis is widely used mainly in large-scale previsional slope angle.
studies, &s it allows for a better understanding of the rela- Nevertheless, even though landslide evolution is largely
tionship between landslide phenomena and predisposing connecterd to the steepness of the slope in geomorphologic
factors. Furthermore it guarantees a lower degree of subjec- environments dominated by slow movements (such as earth
tivity in contrast to heuristic methods. flows), it has to be taken into accountthathigh slope angles do
Howev er,, a key issue is represented by the deflnition of not always produce earth flows. High gradients can be often
predictive models founded on statistical bases. The due to the presence of stony layers within sequences, which
influence the behavior of the masses (Grelle et al. 20llb)
Based on the above considerations, this paper aims
A. Donnarumma (X) . P. Revellino . G. Grelle . F.M. Guadagno to analyze the influence of the slope angle in earth flow
Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences,
occulrences, which involve structurally and lithologically
University of Sannio, Via dei Mulini, 591A, Benevento, Italy
e-mail: angelo.donnarumma@unisannio.it complex sequences. The study was applied to a pilot area of

C. Margottini et al. (eds.), Landslide Science and Practice, Vol. 1, 425


DOI 10.10071918-3-642-31325-l-56, @ Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg2013
426 A. Donnarumma et a

C [ey*y-*i lty sèquÉr]eÈs *altareou* $6qu§*s*s

§laysy"marty ssquerr*§ C+ng,l*mer*tic saquertcf s

tlayey seque*c** Tuff**+ous sequencs§

$endY" aron*ceau* §&quen6&3

Alluvial ssqu&nffi§

ffi takarrsus seqlrenc*s fiilltycateare+ux and caleeree*x*laleyl

ssqusn$e§ U*remenled detrital seq{ranc€§


ffi ArÉnfiesùu§-cleyey and ar**.*s€*u$-r&nslsmsratls

the Benevento province in Southern Italy, where considerable approximate area of 358 k^', approximately 18 7o of ::.
data relating to slope angles and lithological sequences was entire surface area of the province (Fig . 2). By compar-r":
available (Guadagno et aL.2006). Figs. l, and 2, one can note that landslide phenome:-
are mainly connected to Cl, Ar-Cl-Cg, Cl-S and C1-l :

litho-technical sequences.
Lands1idedistributionactivity(sensuwP/TVLI1993
Geological Features and Landslide Occurrence
generally advancittg, except in the source area where i:
in the Study Area
retrogressive.
Moreover, large earth flows usually affect the full slc:"
The Province of Benevento (approximately 2,A00 ktt') has
length, even though smaller and secondary phenomena, rn.l-': "
been historically affected by landslides prevalently of the
have often different directions and velocities, as highli-ehi.:
earth flow type. Its morphological pattern is controlled
in the literature for similar instabilities (e.g. Corominas eI :
by both the regional geo-structural setting, and the outcrop-
2005; Lollino et al. 2003), take place within the main lar :'
ping terrains which mainly consist of structurally complex
slide body. Usually , reacttvations involve the full lands-:.
formations (sensu Esu 1977).
bodies or limited sectors during long and intense storms.
Revellino et al. (2010) grouped these deposits into successions
on the basis of their lithological and engineering-geological/
geomechanical features (Fig. 1) in order to elucidate the
relationship between landslides and the geological forma- Probability of Failure and Landslide
tions. Within these groups, the analysis was carried out Susceptibility
only on the following sequences affected by earth
flows: (1) Clayey sequences (Cl); (2) Arenaceous-clayey- Scientific Background
conglomeratic sequences (Ar-Cl-Cg) ; (3 ) Clayey- silty sequences
(Cl-S) and Clayey-marly sequences (Cl-M) Parametric statistical analysis is well suited to add:.,, -

As regards landslides, recent studies carried out by sing landslide susceptibility assessments of geomorphoic " ;
Guadagno et al. (2006) and Revellino et al. (2010) led to environments dominated by recurrent slope instabilit-"
an inventory of more than 3,100 earth flows, covering an The experimental results obtained by PWRI (1916), Ohn - *
Slope Angle as Indicator Parameter of Landslide Susceptibility in a Geologically... 427

1*"3I Y.,t f,..,.-. n controls the expansion and the reduction of the
,iffi probability density function graphs, and moving the
NIffi

{#H
4,ÉM$*tf
peak position, n indicates the theoretical mode of a
failure. Iwahashi et al. (2003) clarifled that the more
fine-grained the geology, the smaller the value of q
would thus result;
y controls the parallel movement of probability density
function graphs.
The cumulative Weibull distribution function F(A)
(3) defines the probability of failure (Iwahashi et al. 2003).
F(A) is def,ned by the following equation:

F(A)-P(A<*) P(A
- o,) (3)

-@*-
& s
ffi *&ffiffi

FiE" ? Landslide distribution on DEM of the study area


Probability Density of the Slope Angle (c,)

In order to investi gate the evolutive character of the


instabilities, a PDF of the slope angle (cr) was computed
and Sugai (1995) and Iwahashi et al. (2003) show that the in terms of landslides area. A Z-parameter Weibull model
distribution of the mean slope angle of a landslide popula- was thus applied allowing the PDF of u and the analysis
tion fits a sub-optimal Gaussian function. From a probabilis- of its spatial distribution to be determined.
tic point of view, the application of statistical-mathematical Slope angle data was extracted from 1:5,000 scale maps
algorithms to slope angle data provides an estimate of slope by using an Arcview GIS Platform (ESRI 1999) implemented
failure proneness. with Spatial Analyst and Analyst 3D modules. A count map
Since we deal with Gaussian distributions, the Probability of 10 x 10 m was used to sample the angle distribution.
Density Functions (PDFs) of Weibull (Weibull 1951) could The databinning was preliminarily made with l-srze, non
be well applied, being that the mode angles for whole land- zeto intervals and was charactertzed by smal1 dispersion.
slide masses varied in relation to the local geology (Iwahashi The PDF of u (p(u)) was obtained by dividing the area
et al. 2001). of each interval by its own amplitude. More speciflcally,
The mathem attcal structure of the 2- and 3-parameter we fixed 0' as the starting point of the binning procedure
Weibull PDFs, respectively, is defined by: and then we extracted the counts in each bin of a 1o
amplitude:

f(o)_(T) .*,{ (;) '},e>o (1)


/\
p(a)
I òAL
(4)
- Au ò.
where òA, is the landslide area between a and u * òa
and Ag is the full landslide area. Equation (4) is normahzed
as follows:
where s is the slope angle, B is the shape parameter, n is
the scale parameter and y is the location parameter. Each is rn lz
a positive number. p@)du-l (s)
As described by Iwahashi et al. (2003):
.|,
The semi-logarithmic graphs (Fig. 3) show the c PDF
Weibull distribution coincides with exponential distribu- of the landslides inventoried in the study area. By investi-
gating the behavior of the PDFs, it was possible to note
on a probability density function graph. The situation, that the data set presents a double trend. The first, corres-
ponding to the lower angles, has a positive correlation; the
second, corresponding to the higher values, has a negative
428 A. Donnarumma et a

Fit=94.4"/" Fit=95.1 %
0.01 0.01

.=
=at- a
cq)
c) 0.001 0.001
E E
.= =
-o

-o
(s
-o 0.0001 -o 0.0001
o
L
o
L

o_ o_

0.00001 0.00001

0.000001 F=3.1 8 0.000001


F=3.1 2
n=1 1.40 tl=1 1 .40

Fit=96.9%
0.01 0.01

=aC .=
a
C
G)
ìo
0.001 o 0.001
E
.=
=
-o
(§ -o
(6
-o
o 0.0001 -o 0.0001
L
o
L

o_ o-

0.00001 0.0000'1

0.000001 F=4.30 0.000001


0=3.60
r1=14.00
rl=1 1.00

0.0000001 0.0000001
20 20
Slope, degrees Slope, degrees

Fig. 3 hobability density function versus slope angle in the landslide area for each litho+echnical sequence analyzed: (a) Clayey sequences.
(b) Arenaceous-clayey-conglomeratic sequences,Ar-Cl-Cg; (c) Clayey-silty sequences, C/-S; (d) Clayey-marly sequences, C/-M

correlation. In particular, by approaching the peak, the values As shown in Fig. 4a, b, which refer to sequences u lie:-
strongly decrease. In this way, it was possible to identify the the stony component is lacking or poorly present. C;l
slope sectors where landslides are spatially distributed. appears to be univocally distributed in terms of trend a::
Moreover, the PDFs obtained for each litho-technicatr peak values, being the curves fully overlapped (the avera;-
sequence show peak values between 9-11o,11-13" and shift is: 5.91 7o and 1.52 7o, taspectively). This result cou.:
14-16o where landslides involved Cl and Cl-M (Fig. 3a, d), highlight the fact that the slope steepness was reduced :
Ar-C1-Cg (Fig. 3b) and Cl-S (Fig. 3c) respectively. extreme landslide processes. Indeed, in these areas. r,.
Landslide Index, calculated as the percentage of the er;.i
affected by landslide events for a 1km2 grid for the n'h.,,.
Probability Distribution of the Slope Angle (a) province, is even more than l0 7o (Revellino et al. 201{l
On the contrary, the data-set distributions of Fig -lc" :
In order to analyze the evolutive trend of slopes induced show a poor agreement of the peak values, which i:"-
by instabilities, the spatial distributions of u were compared significantly shifted, and a poor overlapping of the cun. ;:
in both landslide and stable areas. Data was normaltzed (the average shift is: 26.19 7o and 13.18 7o, respectir er",,
in relation to the max of the two curves, allowing the range above all in the case of Cl-S sequences (Fi g. 4c). Moreor, ;.
of the probability distribution variability to be restricted distribution tails also display a different behavior, rr,hi:-
between 0 and 1. might be influenced by the poor number of e\-ùr--:
5,ope Angle as lndicator Parameter of Landslide Susceptibility in a Geologically... 429

b Stable Area
Stable Area
E.
&
s

à1 &

fu *.$
% .=
= a ##
ioB #o I 0.8
-w
5 #
.=
#$
:3- 06 # E
-o
0.6
o Landslide Area
! Landslide Area o- dd
i 0.4 # g 0,4
e$
E
!
=
Z-
0.2
d .N

E
zo
0.2

0
i
5 10 15 20 25 30 10 15 20 25 30
Slope Angle (degrees) Slope Angle (degrees)

rea

=a à1
a
C
I 0.8 I 0.8
.= È
-o -o
E 0.6 .8 0.6
o
o-
Landslide Area Io-
E 0.4
.N
8
.N
0.4 Landslide Area
(6 (§
E tr

zE
0.2
zb
0.2

15 20 25 30 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Slope Angle (degrees) SIope Angle (degrees)

Fig. 4
Area probability density distribution, normalized in relation to the peak, vs slope angles of both landslides and stable area: (a) Clayey
sequences, C/; (b) Arenaceous-clayey-conglomeratic sequences, Ar-Cl-Cg; (c) Clayey-silty sequences, C/-S; (d) Clayey-marly sequences, C/-M

inventoried in this geological context too. As regards Cl-S respect to the slope angle distribution of the entire landslide
and Cl-M sequences, landslide area distributions show area.In addition, the peak values of the u probability density
prevailing slope angles around 10*12 . On the other hand, of the source areas are signiflcantly higher (13-15") with
distributions of the stable areas are characterrzed by angles respect to those of the channel areas (8-9"). This could
betweenT" and 9o. probably be related to the geo-mechanical resistance offered
conflrmed by fleld surveys, it should be noted
As by the stony component that, in these sectors, constrains
that landslide source areas are slowly evolving where the failure along the pre-existing weak surfaces such as fractures
stony terrains are prevailing at the top of the sequence or bedding joints (Grelle et al. 20I1b). The result is a
involved in landsliding. This f,eld evidence is supported by slow and irregular retrogression, locally influenced by the
the distributions of Fig. 5, where slope angles of the land- fracture pattern of the stony terrain. The consequence is high
slide source areas are compared with those of the respective evolutive control on the distribution of the activity as
channels. demonstrated by Revellino et al. (2010).
Excluding the analysis on the CL-S sequence, which
could be influenced by the poor statistic representativeness
of data due to the exiguous number of landslides recorded Probability of Failure
(# l4), the remaining sequences are charactenzed by
distributions (Fig. 5) that are almost unchanged with respect A statistical analysis of the frequency-mean slope angle
to those in Fig. 4. relationship was carried out in order to deflne the probability
In the case of the Cl-M sequence, the cr distribution of of failure. The data f,tting was performed by using the
the source area is only slightly overlapped and shifted with 3-parameter Weibull density function (Fig. 6). The result
430 A. Donnarumma et a

a
1

=aC
o à
c 0.8 ?
o 0.8
= o
-o
(U -_
-o 0.6 4§ 0.6
o
L
o- -o
o o
L
o o-
0.4
.N
(6 E
.N
0.4
E
o
E
z 0.2 E
zò 0.2

0
15 20 25
Slope angle (degrees) 15 20 25
Slope angle (degrees)

b d

=, 0.8 .à @
0.8
o C
E o
E

-o

I t i!
à 0.6
-o

-o
o _o
o_ o
.o 0.4 o- o.4
o Eo
.N
6
C
.N
6
l-
L
o
,_\ ,l
v-4 E 0.2
z o
z

15 20 25 30 15 20 25
Slope angle (degrees) Slope angle (degrees)

Ffig, S Area probability density distribution, normahzed in relation to the peak, vs slope angles of both landslides and source areas: (a) C-,
sequenc es, C l; (b) Arenaceous-clayey-conglomeratic sequences, Ar-C l-C g; (c) Clayey-silty sequences, C/-,S; (d) Clayey-marly sequences. -

h
I
B*t*t flt p*ram*t*n; i ffi**t *it p#flffi §?,l#t*rti:
{fi*& r**e
$* ?"?S i F* 2'fr$
.f* *"*5 y* *'#*
** '
-*
ffiq
q*l*.33 dt!
t,*Lt,tI
b* FB
$ §;3

L *
ss%
t&é

s&
-
$ry*
f,
{i.

IL TL

f il.sr **4;3#r/e

*%
fr* W Ii§ fr* ** d#
frdasn slspe e*6k ffirwx},
d t**
ffisxr {ir ffiEm}?trtsrx; ffis t fit p#r$§§€É6rs:
f}= 3.?* $* ?'*$
Y* #'?il ?§ I '#*
-6
8" 4* I3"${} -* t*%
# tl*.$.ffi
3t Hl*
{,} t;
q3 &
fil' §%
& a
[L
1*
TL s%

Fk * *3"3T4 Sf;t * #3"**l*


*itre
'Ìfi x* M 4ù rfi f;8 s0 4il
*#ean ml*pm ffiil?#k {d*grw,**} hJt*sn sbffi ar*6la {de6rmee}

Fig. 6
Mean slope-angle frequency distributions of landslides for each geological sequence: (a) Clayey sequences, C/; (b) Arenaceous-:-:
conglomeratic sequences, Ar-Cl-Cg; (c) Clayey-silty sequences, CÀS; (d) Clayey-marly sequences, C/-M
Slope Angle as lndicator Parameter of Landslide Susceptibility in a Geologically.. 431

ffi
IÉ*.TL 1t-*fi
*I r"/
dr

*1"ffi
*t"S
or#
r f§ ..?

8,S*',a *r"** ,#g , frr ."* r E-01


*
Il/.r
t j dil
# (§
{u

c,
*
#
ri rp
$
L $ ,{ o. r u.02
t r §o,
*s%
=(!
th
J
tj "Y,
(a

*- r# ; g"

c ,t ,# #l (§
(l)

gh iJ, f
rs
0)
1f-s3

-o 40%
G
ldj
rf -"
c!.
a
U)

.EÌ r §..'
o
L
f#:
1r-04
,
o- I

t;
,J[
f#Ys t§
.§i
tg
.§ 1E-0S
,H ro !m 4s sù B* r*s
r"d irn
tr-{17'}
su s0 70 $*
Slop* *r*g** {d*gr**e}
*tL
0 § t$ rs rs gs ** §s 4*
Ffi#" $ Distribution curve of the landslide area in relation to the
SIrp*, degn**r
slope angle
Fig" F Cumulative distribution functions of mean slope-angle distributions
rf landslides for each geological sequence
in gently slope shapes alternated by rough and steep
IEétJB
morphologies. The latter arc characterized by a low spatial
ON#ffHYtr landslide frequency and, therefore, a lack of materials prone
o
H;B&
*.n * '"-

o3 to developing landslides.
ffiC& +
B{}% .o *ou
*(l Therefore, when operating in geologically complex
ùJ
** areas, the probability computed by the Weibull model must

{r+ be calibrated and interpreted in the specific morphological
G
§) *s context. In fact, the cumulative distribution function C(A)
L tr{JH} e*

0, **+ (6) shows that more than 95 7o of the outcropping of the
^
Él

o
a
À
four litho-technical sequences has slope angles lower than
o mH* 17" (Fig. 8).
't#'t&
.J
G {j'
rt
sffi # f;l
E s. :

(6)
J
& fi* *il-Ht
u da§&
6 iF , a;1a
4o sl_§
*
s & &r-SI*#g
sl
t* This value represents the point of intersection (roll-over, fl*)
si,&
#* of two data sets in the bi-logarithmic graph of the slope angle
# # -**. t* tr* È,§, *ttÉ
(Fig. 9). In particular, the spatial analysis of q shows that the
§kpe, d*gr***
areal frequency distribution beyond the roll-over is controlled
F*9. & Cumulative slope angle distribution by the following power law equation:

shows a unimodal asymmetric shape with peak values gen- y 2E+ 08 - 1.909u(r'
- - 0.96)
erally around 10' .
The cumulative Weibull distribution function F(A) was This correlation is valid for slope angles ranging between
thus computed for the four litho-technical sequences
(Fig. 7). Although the preliminary analysis of the probability
of failure curves shows that the model seems to describe well old deflning slope angles influenced by the outcropping
the variability of experimental data, some interpretations of stony sequences. It is assumed that slopes having a
should be necess artly made. First, the morpho-structural slope angle higher than fl* coffespond to sectors where
setting of large-scale areas may influence the slope angles stony layers are outcropping.
distribution, increasing its variability. Second, the heteroge- In order to adapt the model to the speciflc study
neous nature and setting of the outcropping sequences play case, the probability of failure curves were recalculated
a dominant role in the slope gradient pattern, resulting considering the influence of u*.
432

1**Bb immediately connected to the slope angle distribui- "

For this reason a preliminary, deep knowledge oi --

"* tu s st_F#
-fif; study site and a post-processing analysis addresse:
s*?t **-s contextuahze the output data are needed.
@ Af*#***g
&,
The results obtained indic ate that accvrate slope rr: r
t*
t analyses considerably improve landslide susceptibilin s:- --
ffi

u-
6t*
s*?a ies in areas charucterrzed by complex terrains, evalu; ",- *
t3
},}
its effective contribution as landslide predisposing fac: - :
H
,ffi
{s 4S3;
#* References

f
l*
tu
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ft,
à*9a +{ §}
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r" -f"*"{{
**L
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sis was perform ed again on angles under this threshold.


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hdslide. Bull of the IAEG 47:53-57 BF02830162

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