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Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
What is a model?
XX
Profit & Loss statement
(in M) Sales COGS Gross profit SG&A Rent Other expenses EBITDA Depreciation Amortization EBIT Interest expenses Pension interest expenses Interest income Financing costs PBT Tax Net income Dividend Previous periods 2009 2010 619 620 (449) (444) 171 176 (43) (42) (14) (14) (6) (6) 107 114 (38,6) (38,6) 69 75 (20) (20) 1 1 (1) (1) 48 55 (14) (15) 35 39 2011 598 (440) 158 (49) (14) (5) 91 (41,7) 49 (21) 0 (1) 27 (7) 19 2012 620 (454) 167 (38) (18) (8) 102 (51,0) 51 (22) 1 (1) 29 (8) 21 (52) Current Projection 2013 2014 633 652 (477) (491) 156 161 (40) (41) (22) (23) (6) (7) 88 91 (53) (59) 35 31 (17) (11) 0 0 (2) 16 20 (5) (6) 12 15 (8) (10) 2015 684 (515) 169 (43) (24) (7) 95 (66) 29 (10) 0 20 (5) 14 (10) 2016 719 (541) 178 (45) (25) (7) 100 (73) 27 (8) 0 19 (5) 13 (9) 2017 747 (563) 185 (47) (26) (7) 104 (81) 23 (7) 0 17 (5) 12 (8) 2018 770 (580) 190 (48) (27) (8) 107 (88) 19 (5) 0 14 (4) 10 (7) CAGR 2019 09-12 13-19 789 0,1% 3,7% (594) 0,4% 3,7% 195 -0,8% 3,7% (50) -3,6% 3,7% (28) 8,5% 3,7% (8) 7,4% 3,7% 110 -1,6% 3,7% (96) 9,8% 10,6% 13 -9,4% -15,0% (4) 2,1% -22,2% 0 -20,6% 3,5% -0,3% -100,0% 10 -15,9% -8,2% (3) -15,9% -8,2% 7 -15,9% -8,2% (5) data2impact data2impac t Financial Modelling 3 - TRAINING MODEL (12/07/13) C:\Users\Peter\Documents\d2i\Training\Finance\New training\Exercises\[Full model.xlsb]M odel
Balance Sheet
(in M)
Cash, petty cash, temporary investments Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Current assets Properties, plant & equipment Intangible assets Non-current assets Assets Accounts payable Other current liabilities Current liabilities Pension liabilities Existing debt tranche Term loan Liabilities Paid in capital Net income Dividends Retained earnings Equities Liabilities & equity Balance check
Previous periods 2009 24 51 38 5 119 326 1 327 446 48 48 40 230 318 1 35 91 127 446
2010 69 51 39 5 164 320 1 322 486 48 48 40 230 319 1 39 126 167 486
2011 86 48 37 4 174 328 1 329 503 46 46 41 230 317 1 19 166 186 503
Current Projection 2013 2014 84 72 43 45 33 34 6 7 166 157 316 303 1 1 318 304 484 461 46 46 44 236 326 1 12 (8) 153 158 484
CAGR 2019 09-12 13-19 81 31,8% -0,5% 54 -2,2% 3,7% 41 -5,6% 3,7% 8 25,5% 3,7% 184 7,0% 1,7% 157 -0,1% -11,0% 1 159 -0,1% -10,9% 343 1,9% -5,6% 57 57 47 59 163 1 7 (5) 176 180 343 -3,1% -3,1% 2,6% -0,1% -15,9% 26,4% 6,7% 1,9% 3,7% 3,7% 1,3% -20,6% -10,9% -8,2% -8,2% 2,3% 2,1% -5,6%
Oxford Dictionary: "A simplified description, especially a mathematical one, of a system or process, to assist calculations and predictions"
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Stages of spreadsheet model development & usage Preparation & Structure Building & Formatting Analysis
Best practice
guidelines
Plan the structure and analytical approach of the spreadsheet modle before building it
Analysis
Do not switch on the machine! Agree models requirements with team Decide what type of model you are building Plan the analytical approach using Schematic diagrams Back of envelope calculations Decide model structure, paying special
attention to separating assumptions from inputs and outputs
Find out as much as possible about the purpose and requirements of the model before you start
Questions to ask before you start
General What is the purpose of the model? How will the results be validated/syndicated? What software and which version? Data What data will be required? What are the data sources? What proxies/samples could be used if there is a
delay? Which data is likely to change?
Calculations What calculations will be required? Will scenarios be needed and if so, which? What kind of back-of-the-envelope calculations
could be used?
Outputs What outputs should the model produce? What stakeholders will use the model? What format should the outputs be in?
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Structure of a model
Input
Assumptions
Start year Financial assumptions Corporate tax Dividends payout ratio DCF assumptions Debt Target capital structure - debt/market value40,0% Debt spread (at 0% debt ratio) 0,5% Abs. increase per 10%pt debt ratio 0,4% Levered debt premium 1,9% WACC Tax rate 30,0% Risk free rate 3,0% Market risk premium 5,0% Resulting WACC 7,8% Perpetual growth EBITDA exit multiple Start year cash flow share Refinancing of existing debt Year of refinancing Tenor Amortization offset Loan amount Interest rate Financing fee Interest rate cash account 2013 8 1 230 5,0% 1,0% 0,3% 2,2% 8,0x 50% 28,0% 70,0% 2013 Operating assumptions Capex/depreciation Capex (% of sales) Useful life (years) 2013 Working capital Accounts receivable (in d) Inventory (in d) Other current assets Accounts payable Other current liabilities Growth assumptions Sales Costs as % of Sales COGS SG&A Rent Other expenses Pensions Service costs Interest costs (in years) (in years) (in M) Net debt adjustment Pension liability PV multiple Operating lease multiple 25 25 1,0% 35 2014 25 25 1,0% 35 -
Calculation
Profit & Loss statement
(in M) Sales COGS Gross profit SG&A Rent Other expenses EBITDA Depreciation Amortization EBIT Interest expenses Pension interest expenses Interest income Financing costs PBT Tax Net income Dividend Previous periods 2009 2010 619 620 (449) (444) 171 176 (43) (42) (14) (14) (6) (6) 107 114 (38,6) (38,6) 69 75 (20) (20) 1 1 (1) (1) 48 55 (14) (15) 35 39 Current Projection 2013 2014 633 652 (477) (491) 156 161 (40) (41) (22) (23) (6) (7) 88 91 (53) (59) 35 31 (17) (11) 0 0 (2) 16 20 (5) (6) 12 15 (8) (10) CAGR 2019 09-12 13-19 789 0,1% 3,7% (594) 0,4% 3,7% 195 -0,8% 3,7% (50) -3,6% 3,7% (28) 8,5% 3,7% (8) 7,4% 3,7% 110 -1,6% 3,7% (96) 9,8% 10,6% 13 -9,4% -15,0% (4) 2,1% -22,2% 0 -20,6% 3,5% -0,3% -100,0% 10 -15,9% -8,2% (3) -15,9% -8,2% 7 -15,9% -8,2% (5)
Output
Sensitivity analysis (using EBITDA exit multiple method)
2018 770 (580) 190 (48) (27) (8) 107 (88) 19 (5) 0 14 (4) 10 (7)
7,0% 7 2015 25 25 1,0% 35 2016 25 25 1,0% 35 2017 25 25 1,0% 35 2018 25 25 1,0% 35 2019 25 25 1,0% (% of sales) 35 - (% of COGS)
2,0%
3,0%
5,0%
5,0%
4,0%
3,0%
2,5%
2011 598 (440) 158 (49) (14) (5) 91 (41,7) 49 (21) 0 (1) 27 (7) 19 -
2012 620 (454) 167 (38) (18) (8) 102 (51,0) 51 (22) 1 (1) 29 (8) 21 (52)
2015 684 (515) 169 (43) (24) (7) 95 (66) 29 (10) 0 20 (5) 14 (10)
2016 719 (541) 178 (45) (25) (7) 100 (73) 27 (8) 0 19 (5) 13 (9)
2017 747 (563) 185 (47) (26) (7) 104 (81) 23 (7) 0 17 (5) 12 (8)
Enterprise value sensitivity to WACC and debt ratio 1.400 1.200 1.000
800
Enterprise value sensitivity to WACC and debt ratio 1.400 1.200 1.000
800 600
600
(0,6) (0,6) (0,6) (0,6) (0,6) (0,6) (0,6) -
400
400 200 6,0x 7,0x 8,0x (base case) 9,0x 10,0x Base case WACC (+/-1,0%) EBITDA exit multiple (+/2,0x) Debt ratio (+/20,0%)
200
1,35x 17,50x
Sensitivity support Perpetual growth EBITDA exit multiple Target capital structure - debt/market value Capex (% of sales)
P&L, Balance sheet, Cash flow Working capital (NWC) Properties, plants & equipment
(PPE)
Etc.
Debt ratio
WACC
It is helpful to document the layout of the model schematically, particularly for larger analysis
Example plan of a model
Scenario 1 Volume growth Price growth VC growth FC growth Years to forecast 5% 5% 0% 10% 5
ILLUSTRATIVE
2
10% 5% 0% 10% 5
3
15% 5% 0% 10% 5
Inputs: Company data P&L data base year (1999) Revenues Volume Price Costs Fixed Variable
Outputs: Economic profit tree Economic profit 2001 and 2008 EBIT Economic profit Scenario 1 Cost of capital Fixed costs Margin Contribution margin Price Variable costs
Volume
A
B C D
Documentation
Separate sections for input data, pivot, calculations, and outputs Separate sheet for each section of model Time series all go in one direction (usually horizontally) The developer assumes model will Never be worked on by the developer again Be pulled out in a years time for quick reference Be passed around the team, and to other teams
Documentation Calculations
Output 1
Output 2
+
-
10
Analysis
Get into the habit of being disciplined about Indicating sources for every input Clear naming of fields, sheets, and
models
11
No sources Multiple sources listed in a laundry list rather than against each section of data Estimates not explained or indicated Difference between inputs and calculations not clear Reliance on Excels note function (as they require a special effort to view/print)
Every number sourced visibly on the same sheet as it appears Estimates clearly indicated Calculations vs. raw data clearly indicated Complex formulae explained
Source: Team Analysis; Annual Report, Accounting system; Fred Cooper (BL)
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The models filename and sheet headings should clearly explain its purpose and structure
Bad practice Good practice
Never keeping separate copies of old versions Filenames like swaps3old.xls Incorrect titles (e.g., out-of-date ones) Titles only used on output sheets Ranges and constants never named Year and scope unclear (e.g., Battery market size)
Separate files for different versions/revisions of the model Filenames like 101013 Regulatory Model v0.xls All sheets, and sections within sheets have clear title Titles which are the first thing the eye sees Constants, e.g., WACC, given defined names Year and scope clear (e.g., U.K. consumer battery market size, 2007)
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Not documented on the sheet Varying unnecessarily 5% shown as 0.05 (or even 0.1) Real or nominal growth not indicated
Clearly documented, either Per section/sheet, or Against every number 5% shown as 5% Real or nominal is clearly indicated Consistent use of currencies and decimals
14
Minimal use of formatting Formatting restricted to: Chart titles Column titles Subtotals and totals Inputs/drivers often a different color Potentially: calculation and model structure Consistency Time/date/version/author stamp on all printouts
15
Instead of formatting each cell individually, define styles up front and apply them rigorously! Each cell can only have one style, i.e. styles cannot be combined Therefore, set up styles as combination of "cell type" (input, calculation), format (%, multiple, number)
and number of digits
Example:
A-r-l
(German Excel)
16
Make the balance sheet balance from the start without a fudge!!!
Dont hide rows or columns, use grouping instead and "fold" cells
away
Perform sanity checks and track changes while using the spreadsheet model
Analysis
Be creative, as you wont be able to check each formula once you get beyond the one-pager
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Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
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Module header
Module content data2impact data2impac t Financial Modelling 1
3 4 5
6 7 8 9
13 14 15
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Main task
Selection with S and arrow keys Combination of quick navigation and selection to select ranges
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Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
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Exercise 2 NWC
Calculate forecast for Current assets (rows 265:269) and Current liabilities (rows
Main task 270:272)
To calculate Accounts receivable and Accounts payable, assume 365d for a year Integrate result into Balance sheet Calculate Net Working Capital and link into Cashflow statement Investigate implementation of central switches in Y35:Y47
Additional task
CE Populate selection with the same formula (without changing format!) @ Edit existing formula
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Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
24
Flag cell calculates check, if period has depreciation Often, flag cells can be verified visually without checking the formula ("triangle shape" in this example)
25
Calculate Capex in L310:S310 using assumption in H299 Copy rows 319:329 to row 333 and label as "Support matrix"
Additional task
Investigate solution in Full Model without support matrix and using TRANSPOSE
function
AutoSum (creates SUM formula to contingent range of numbers top or left of cell) Look at custom format of E329
Insert (row/column/cell/copy selection) or move cut selection Group Ungroup Toggle cell link fixing (A1$A$1A$1$A1A1)
Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
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Exercise 4 Pensions
Populate L345:R347, using central assumptions Link L347:R347 into Balance sheet Define names for multiples in M105 and M106 Use names to populate and calculate H355:H357 and M355:M357
Main task
Exit Formula editing, discarding input Insert name from dialog A>i>d>n Name manager
X #
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Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
29
Existing debt (230 m) is refinanced mid 2013 with a term loan The amortization period of the new loan is assumed to be 1 year but must be
modelled flexible to assess CF impacts
After the amortization period, the loan will be repaid in fixed rates over a tenor of 8
years (to be also flexible)
Populate L397:R407
Main task
(in M)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Term loan Amortization period Loan period Draw down Financing fee (rate) Financing fee Amount outstanding Interest rate Interest accrued Interest payment Amortization Amount remaining Summary Interest payments Amortization
(17) (230)
(11) (30)
(10) (30)
(8) (30)
(7) (30)
(5) (30)
(4) (30)
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Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
31
Exercise 6 DCF
Understand setup of Beta Calculation sheet and WACC sheet Populate L431:S451
(in M) Current Projection 2013 2014 Sales 632,9 651,8 Growth 3,0% EBITDA 88,0 90,6 Operational lease adjustment 22,2 22,8 EBITDA adjusted 110,1 113,4 % of sales 17,4% 17,4% Depreciation (53) (59) EBIT 57,4 54,2 % of sales 9,1% 8,3% Tax (17) (16) Tax rate 30,0% 30,0% NOPAT 40,2 37,9 % of sales 6,3% 5,8% + Depreciation 53 59 - Capex (44) (46) + Change NWC (10) 1 Unlevered Free Cash Flow 39 53 Discount power 0,5 1,0 WACC 7,8% 7,8% Discount factor 1,0x 0,9x PV of unlevered Free Cash Flow 37 49 2015 684,4 5,0% 95,1 24,0 119,1 17,4% (66) 53,0 7,7% (16) 30,0% 37,1 5,4% 66 (48) 2 57 2,0 7,8% 0,9x 49 2016 718,7 5,0% 99,9 25,2 125,0 17,4% (73) 51,8 7,2% (16) 30,0% 36,2 5,0% 73 (50) 2 61 3,0 7,8% 0,8x 49 2017 747,4 4,0% 103,9 26,2 130,0 17,4% (81) 49,3 6,6% (15) 30,0% 34,5 4,6% 81 (52) 2 65 4,0 7,8% 0,7x 48 2018 769,8 3,0% 107,0 26,9 133,9 17,4% (88) 45,5 5,9% (14) 30,0% 31,8 4,1% 88 (54) 1 68 5,0 7,8% 0,7x 46 Terminal 2019 year 789,1 806,4 2,5% 2,2% 109,7 112,1 27,6 28,2 137,3 140,3 17,4% 17,4% (96) (52) 40,9 88,6 5,2% 11,0% (12) (27) 30,0% 30,0% 28,7 62,0 3,6% 7,7% 96 52 (55) (56,5) 1 71 57 6,0 7,8% 0,6x 45
Main task
32
Exercise 7 TV
Populate H454:H465 and Q454:H465
Main task
Method 1: EBITDA exit multiple
EBITDA EBITDA exit multiple Terminal value Discount factor Discounted terminal value PV of unlevered Free Cash Flow Enterprise value Existing debt Operating lease adjustment Unfundeded pension liabilities Existing cash Implied equity value 140,3 8,0x 1.122,6 0,6x 714,7 323,7 1.038,4 (236) (399) (54) 84 433
Cb Cu Ci G5
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Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
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Data tables
Data tables are a great tool to quickly calculate different scenarios based on one or two parameters,
n M) e.g.: 1.038 6,8% 7,3% 7,8% 8,3% 8,8% 6,0x 900 880 860 840 822 EBITDA exit multiple 7,0x 8,0x 995 1.089 971 1.063 949 1.038 927 1.014 906 991 9,0x 1.183 1.155 1.128 1.101 1.075 10,0x 1.278 1.247 1.217 1.188 1.160
Data tables (German: "Mehrfachoperationen") are located in the "Data" tab in the "What-If-Analysis"
dropdown
To apply:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Top left cell: must be linked to the result cell that you want to show as result (for visual purposes font color can be white) Left column and top row must provided values for the two input parameters (Attention: the original input parameter cannot be linked directly into the header, this leads to wrong results!) Select the full table (including header) and apply the data table First parameter ("row input cell") will be changed to all elements from header row "Column input cell" will be changed to elements from first column
Attention: Both input cells must be located on the same sheet as the data table! To prevent restructuring of model, create blank parameter cell in data table sheet and use this cell as input to data table. In the calculation, build in one more step/cell: =IF(ISBLANK(DataTableCell);OriginalAssumptionCell;DataTableCell)
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WACC
Exercise 8 Sensitivities
Understand setup of sensitivity analysis for EBITDA multiple on p11 Replicate to sensitivity analysis for Perpetuity growth rate method on p12
C + mouse wheel
Main task
Check what happens to the graphs when columns U:AI get folded! Why does it not
Additional task happen to the graphs on p11? (Tipp: Check in "Select data")
Use the "Trace Precedents" and "Trace Dependents" functionality "Formulas" tab to
understand formula structure of a calculation chain (e.g. try "Trace Dependents" multiple times on I478, "Trace Precedents" on Z498)
36
Content
Modelling basics Profit & Loss Net Working Capital Depreciation & Capex Pensions Debt financing
37
Main task
C1 CO, CN T, CT
A+letter
E, X Ct Cb Cl Cr
Activate next/previous element in dialog box Activates the field in the dialog with the corresponding
underlined letter
Ch Cv Co Ci Cn