THE REPORTED GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS IS NEITHER A RECENT NOR A TEMPORARY ONE By V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

Abstract Some recently reported climate models attribute the temporary stalling in global warming trends, observed in the 21st century, to strong Pacific trade winds. It is shown here, by a careful review of all the reliable global average temperatures on record (1880-2013) that this hiatus is neither recent nor a temporary one. The analysis of the global average temperature-time data is shown to reveal a movement along a family of parallels with the general equation T = A + Bt where the slope B, the rate of warming is shown to be a constant (B 0.18 C per year, or 1.8 C per decade) with the nonzero intercept A reducing the current temperatures to well below the values that would have been observed if the warming had proceeded along the parallel for the late 19th century, or the mid-20th century. It is suggested that the nonzero A is akin to the work function conceived by Einstein, in 1905, to explain the photoelectric effect. The earths climate system seems to exhibit a similar work function and must be more completely investigated by climate scientists and future climate models.
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Email address: vlaxmanan@hotmail.com . The author has recently created a Facebook group called Global Warming for the Layman; see https://www.facebook.com/groups/GWforlayman/, on January 5, 2014, aimed at discussing global warming data in an easy-to-understand manner, with short posts. He is a retired research professional, with advanced degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering who has spent his entire professional career in leading US research institutions, in academia ( MIT and CWRU), in government (NASA), and in corporate research labs (Allied Chemical Corporate R & D, now part of Honeywell, and the General Motors Research Labs). He has also published many widely cited scientific articles in leading peer-reviewed international journals in both physics and the materials sciences; see the few references cited at the end of this article. Page 1 of 10

Introduction In a recent Nature Climate Change article [1], England et al attribute the temporary stalling of global warming trends, observed in the 21st century, to strong Pacific trade winds. The strong circulation pattern induced by these winds has resulted in cooler water from the ocean depths to rise to the surface and hence the lack of a significant warming over the last 15 plus years. Nonetheless, as we will see shortly, a careful analysis of the global average temperature data (obtained from the National Climate Data Center, NCDC, see Table 1 for a small selection) for the entire period for which reliable records are available, from 1880-2013, reveals that this is NOT a recent, or even a temporary, hiatus. This can be appreciated from the global average temperature-time plot included here as Figure 1. Movement along parallels on the temperature-time graph The global average temperature seems to be moving, quite unmistakably, along a family of parallels, described by the general equation T = A + Bt. The slope B of this graph is the rate of warming of the earth, measured in degrees Celsius per year. This slope has been virtually constant, with B 0.018 C/year, or 1.8C/year for the entire period for which reliable global average temperature data is available. For example, consider the most recent 36 year period from 1976 to 2012. The global average temperature T went up by 0.65 C, from 13.82C to 14.47 C. Hence, the equation of the line joining these two points is T = 0.0181t 21.86. This is the solid line, labeled I, in Figure 1. Notice that there is a nonzero intercept A = -21.86. Next, consider another 36 year period, from 1908 to 1944. The global average temperature went up by EXACTLY the same amount, by 0.65C, from 13.47C to 14.12 C. The equation of the line joining these two points is T = 0.018t 20.98. The intercept A = -20.98 and has become more negative in recent years (going from A = -20.98 to A = -21.86) compared to the first half of the 20th century.
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Table 1: NCDC Global average temperatures (1880-2013)

Time t (Calendar year) 1976 2012 1908 1944 1948 1958 1971 2010 Global average temp T [C] 13.82 14.47 13.47 14.12 13.84 14.02 13.87 14.56 Change in Change in temperature time t T 0.65 0.65 0.18 0.69 36 36 10 39 Rate of change B = T/t 0.0181 0.0181 0.018 0.0177 Intercept A

-21.858 -20.98 -21.224 -21.00

The other three parallels in Figure 1 were determined following exactly the procedure just described. Between 1948 and 1958, a ten-year period, the global average temperature went up by 0.18C, from 13.84C to 14.02 C for a slope B = 0.018 C per year, EXCATLY the same as for the other two periods just mentioned. The equation of the line T = 0.018t 21.224 and the nonzero intercept A = -21.224 has an intermediate value. The fourth parallel here joins 1971 to 2010, a 39-year period with 2010 being the warmest year on record. The global average temperature went up by 0.69C, from 13.84C to 14.02 C for a slope B = 0.0177 C per year. This parallel has the equation T = 0.0177t 21.00, with the intercept A = -21.00 being less negative. Finally, the fifth parallel passes through the temperature data for 1889, from the late 19th century. Several (T, t) pairs can be seen to fall on or close to this line.

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Global Average Temperature, T [C]

V
14.80 14.60 14.40

IV

III

II

14.20
14.00 13.80 13.60 13.40 13.20 1860

TB = 13.9 C
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Time, t [Calendar year]

Figure 1: A family of five parallels with the general equation T = A + Bt are illustrated here and can be seen to sweep through the entire dataset from 1880-2013. The mathematical equations of these lines were deduced by considering the following (x, y) pair. Line I (most recent trend); T = 0.0181t 21.86 joins 1976 and 2012. Line II: T = 0.0177t 21.00, joins 1971 to 2010 (the year with the highest global average temperature). Line III: T = 0.018t 21.24, joins 1948 and 1958. Line IV: 0.0181t 20.98, joins 1908 to 1944. Line V: T = 0.018t 20.41, passes through 1889 data point and is representative of the late 19 th century temperature trends. The NCDC global temperature anomalies (TA) have been converted here to an actual global average T = TA + TB using a fixed baseline, or reference, temperature TB = 13.9 C, used by NCDC as the 20th century (1901-2000) global average value; see horizontal line. The Microsoft Excel file, with all the data, can be readily downloaded, see http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php. The NASA GISS data is being considered separately in other articles.

Work function for the earths climate system The temperature-time parallels revealed here suggest that the earths climate system exhibits a property akin to the work function conceived by Einstein in
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his famous 1905 paper on photoelectricity [2, 3]. Einsteins photoelectric law, K = E W = hf W = h (f f0), is the only known law of nature that implies a similar movement of the observational data along a family of parallels - on the K-f graph [4]. Here K is the maximum kinetic energy of the electron and E = hf is the energy of the photon that strikes the surface of the metal to produce the electron, with h being the Planck constant and f the frequency of light (wave). There is a nonzero intercept with K = 0 when E = W giving rise to the cut-off frequency f0 = W/h below which no electrons are observed. This has been discussed in detail in an article uploaded earlier today (February 12, 2014), where a broad generalization is suggested for the far-reaching idea of a work function [3], conceived by Einstein to explain photoelectricity. When light shines on the surface of a metal, a stream of photons with the energy E = hf strikes the metal surface. However, not all of this energy appears as the energy of the electron. Some energy W, which Einstein calls the work function, must be given up in order to get the electron out of the metal and overcome the (complex) forces that bind it to the metal. Likewise, each morning, when the sun rises and shines on the surface of the earth, it starts warming the earth and the temperatures start rising. Not all of this energy from the sun (the solar flux in Watts per square meter) is available to raise the earths temperature. However, the constant rate of increase of the global average temperature (mathematically B = dT/dt, the derivative is constant) implies that the earths climate systems seems to have a property akin to the thermal, or heat, capacity of a body whose temperature will increase at a fixed rate when subject to a constant heat flux, or dQ/dt = C(dT/dt). All these points have been discussed in detail by the author in several articles that have been cited in Ref. [5] and can be obtained by contacting the author. The T-t graph of Figure 1 leaves no room for any kind of riddles in climate science. The global average temperature T, plotted versus time t in years, follows the simple law T = A + Bt. The data falls on a family of parallels with the same fixed slope B and varying values of the nonzero intercept A. There are at least five parallels not two parallel lines but five parallel lines all having the same fixed slope B, which is a measure of the rate of increase of the
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global average temperature (warming rate, or heating rate). However, the nonzero intercept A determines the magnitude of the global average temperature T. The more negative the nonzero intercept A, the lower will be the temperature, although the temperatures are still increasing. Hence, the global average temperatures today are lower than they would be if the earth had continued to warm at the fixed rate we observe, following the parallel through 1889, or through 1908, or even through 1971. A property similar to the work function from photoelectric is evident and has led to reduced global average temperatures T. This is unmistakable and climate science must focus on developing models that explain this behavior. Discussion Climate science, as the author has come to realize when this re-analysis began a little over a month ago (on January 5, 2014, when the group Global Warming for the Layman [6] was created on his Facebook Page, when residents of the Metro Detroit area were experiencing a bitterly cold winter spell that kept many indoors and homebound), has generally tended to ignore the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature T in favor of what is called the temperature anomalies, the difference between T and some baseline, now taken as the global average temperature for the 20th century by NASA GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) and also by NCDC (National Climate Data Center). The justification for the use of the anomalies may be found in the websites of leading agencies reporting global climate trends, including the UK Metro Office [7-9]. Nonetheless, this focus on temperature anomaly (TA), instead of T, has, it appears, been the fundamental barrier to the recognition of the fact that the earth is actually cooler than it would have been if the temperature had continued to rise along the parallels (dashed lines with positive slope) corresponding to earlier periods of the 20th century [10, 11]. It should also be noted that the term absolute used here is NOT to be confused with notion of an absolute temperature conceived by Lord Kelvin. The Kelvin scale is used in all scientific work and on this scale the freezing point of water 0C = 273.16 K. Here absolute magnitude of T simply means that we use the actual temperatures measured in either familiar units of
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degrees Celsius or Fahrenheit, without introducing the anomaly calculation. The temperature anomaly (TA), as used by climate scientists, is given by the equation, TA = T TB Here TB is the global average temperature for the base-period, which is now taken as the average value for the 20th century (13.9C in the above calculations of Table 1), the average over 1901-2000. More detailed discussion of the 21st century data can be found in the references included in [5, 6]. All the references that are NOT published yet can be obtained by contacting the author. In summary, the hiatus in global warming, now recognized by the IPCC and leading climate scientists, is neither temporary nor a recent one. The analysis of the global average temperature data (with attention being paid to the actual T, not the anomaly TA = T TB) reveals a hitherto overlooked movement of the global average temperature data along a family of parallels described by the general equation T = A + Bt where the nonzero intercept determines the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature. The decreasing (more negative) values of A, as revealed here, have depressed the global average temperature T well below the values that we would see had the same fixed warming rate continued along the parallels revealed for the late 19th century or the mid-20th century, or the first half of the 20th century. The nonzero A is akin to the work function conceived by Einstein, in 1905, to explain the photoelectric effect. It appears that the earths climate system exhibits such a property and climate models must be developed to explain the trends revealed here from a straightforward analysis of the observational data. REFERENCES [1] England, M., et al, Recent Intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific Temperatures and the ongoing global warming hiatus, Nature Climate Journal, February 9, 2014. Nature Climate Change (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 See also Financial Times article by Pilita
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[2]

[3] [4]

[5]

[6] [7]

Clark, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/37930724-917a-11e3-adde00144feab7de.html#axzz2tAj2zzMp Einstein, A., On a heuristic point of view about the creation and conversion of light, Annalen der Physik, 1905, Einsteins original paper which on light energy quanta, http://www.ffn.ub.es/luisnavarro/nuevo_maletin/Einstein_1905_heuristic .pdf The Photoelectric Effect, in Great Experiments in Physics, Edited by Morris Shamos, Dover Publications (1959), pp. 232-237. Photoelectric Effect, The Physic Hyper Textbook, http://physics.info/photoelectric/ see nice illustration here of the movement along parallels for different metals Laxmanan, V. , On the Generalization of Einsteins Idea of the Photoelectric Work Function: Example from Scandinavian Climate Data http://www.scribd.com/doc/206581016/ON-THE-GENERALIZATIONOF-EINSTEIN%E2%80%99S-IDEA-OF-THE-PHOTOELECTRIC-WORKFUNCTION-EXAMPLE-FROM-SCANDINAVIAN-CLIMATE-DATA V. Laxmanan, (Vj) Global Warming for the Layman, https://www.facebook.com/groups/GWforlayman/ NCDC Global Surface Temperature Anomalies, see answer to question number 7 here, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoringreferences/faq/anomalies.php NCDC Global Analysis, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climateinformation/analyses Note that both the temperature anomaly and the actual global average temperatures values are given; e.g., from the November 2013 report, The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78C (1.40F) above the 20th century average of 12.9C (55.2F). NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for November 2013, published online December 2013, retrieved on January 19, 2014 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11.

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[8]

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ see Table Data, Global-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means, 1880-present, updated through most recent month. This link gives the data being analyzed here. [9] UK Metro Office, Climate Science at the Met Office, see Global temperature records, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climateguide/science/temp-records http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/annual/re gional-values [10] Trenberth, K. E.et al. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Cambridge Univ. Press, (2007). [11] Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. & von Schuckmann, K. Earths energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1342113449 (2011).

The following is the text of my Letters to the Editor submitted to The Detroit Free Press, on February 13, 2014 at about 5:00 AM
The following is the text of my Letters to the Editor which was submitted to The Detroit Free Press, on February 13, 2014 at about 5:00 AM Dear Sir/Madam: In a recent Nature Climate Change article, England et al attribute the temporary stalling of global warming trends, observed in the 21st century, to strong Pacific trade winds. The strong circulation pattern induced by these winds has resulted in cooler water from the ocean depths to rise to the surface and hence the lack of a significant warming over the last 15 plus years. Nonetheless, I wanted to call the attention of your readers to the following analysis of the global average temperature data (obtained from the National Climate Data Center, NCDC) for the entire period for which reliable records
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are available, from 1880-2013. The analysis of this data reveals that the reported hiatus is NOT a recent, or even a temporary, one. The global average temperatures (T) have been moving along a family of parallels, as a function of time t in calendar years. This is described mathematically the equation T = A + Bt, familiar to all high school students. The slope B is the rate of warming, which has remained constant over the entire period, with B ~ 0.18 degrees Celsius per year (or 1.8 degrees Celsius per decade). The nonzero intercept A has become more and more negative, with the passage of time. This means that the global average temperatures that we are observing today are actually significantly lower than they would have been if the earth's climate system had continued to move along the parallel defined for the late 19th century (year 1889), or the parallel defined for the first half of the 20th century (1908 to 1944) or the parallel defined for the mid-20th century (1948 to 1958). More complete discussion along with the T-t graph with five parallels may be found in the article that I have uploaded earlier today, see http://www.scribd.com/doc/206892158/THE-REPORTED-GLOBALWARMING-HIATUS-IS-NEITHER-A-RECENT-NOR-A-TEMPORARY-ONE Very sincerely V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

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