Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Demand MA-3
MA-5
10
18
29
15
19
30
21
12
25
16
19
8
19
22
12
14
15
15
15
27
17
30
19
24
35
30
20
21
20
16
18
14
15
17
22
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
Note
Smoothing of the demand
Difference in MA3 and MA5
Demand
MA-3
MA-5
of the demand
in MA3 and MA5
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Demand WMA3
MA3
10
18
29
15
27.9
30
16.4
12
28.5
16
13.8
8
15.6
22
8.8
14
20.6
15
14.8
27
14.9
30
25.8
23
29.7
15
23.7
15.8
W1
W2
W3
19
21
25
19
19
12
15
15
17
19
24
27
23
0
0.1
0.9
1
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
Demand
WMA3
MA3
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Alpha
40%
47
Demand ES1
ES1
ES2
42
40
42.00
42.00
42.00
43
41.80
41.80
41.20
40
41.92
41.92
42.28
41
41.73
41.73
41.15
39
41.66
41.66
41.44
46
41.39
41.39
40.59
44
41.85
41.85
43.23
45
42.07
42.07
42.71
38
42.36
42.36
43.24
40
41.92
41.92
40.62
41.73
41.73
41.15
45
10%
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
49
Alpha
43
41
39
37
35
1
Demand
ES1
ES2
10
11
12
b
a
10 7.509091
699.4
790
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
y=a+bt
Equation
Demand
700
724
720
728
740
742
758
750
770
775
Linear1
706.9091
714.4182
721.9273
729.4364
736.9455
744.4545
751.9636
759.4727
766.9818
774.4909
782
780
Linear2
706.9091
714.4182
721.9273
729.4364
736.9455
744.4545
751.9636
759.4727
766.9818
774.4909
782
770
760
750
740
730
720
710
700
690
1
Demand
Linear1
10
11
Alpha
Beta
40%
30%
780
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand Change
T
S
TAF
700
724
24
720
-4
728
8
9.33
740
9.33
738.40
737.33
742
9.65
745.44
747.73
758
8.97
756.26
755.09
750
9.31
759.13
765.22
770
7.49
769.07
768.45
775
7.67
775.93
776.56
783.61
770
760
750
740
730
720
710
700
690
1
Demand
TAF
10
11
Period
Year
Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
Demand MA4
MA2
Demand/MA2
14
18
28.25
35
31.75
30.00
1.17
46
36.25
34.00
1.35
28
42.5
39.375
0.71
36
48.75
45.625
0.79
60
53
50.875
1.18
71
57.5
55.25
1.29
45
63.5
60.5
0.74
54
67.75
65.625
0.82
84
71
69.375
1.21
88
58
DD
0.72
0.80
1.17
1.31
0.72
0.80
1.17
1.31
0.72
0.80
1.17
1.31
0.72
120
100
80
Demand
DD
60
Trend
40
Forecasts
20
0
1
10
11
12
13
19.43
22.55
29.80
35.21
38.86
45.09
51.09
54.34
62.45
67.64
71.52
67.35
80.49
Trend
19.23
24.19
29.15
34.12
39.08
44.04
49.00
53.96
58.92
63.88
68.85
73.81
78.77
Forecasts
13.86
19.31
34.24
44.57
28.16
35.16
57.55
70.51
42.46
51.00
80.86
96.44
56.76
Quarter
1
2
3
4
1.45
1.61
3.56
2.64
Total
Period
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Quarter
1
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
Demand Trend
14 19.2308
18 24.1923
35 29.1538
46 34.1154
28 39.0769
36 44.0385
60 49.0000
71 53.9615
45 58.9231
54 63.8846
84 68.8462
88 73.8077
58 78.7692
Forecasts
11.55839
18.05022
36.05208
48.3154
23.48665
32.85771
60.59413
76.42221
35.41491
47.66521
85.13618
104.529
47.34316
Quarter
1
2
3
4
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
Year 1
Year 2
14
18
35
46
Year 3
28
36
60
71
45
54
84
88
Seasonal
Average SA Index Year 4
29.00 0.60104
58
36.00 0.74611
59.67 1.23661
68.33 1.41623
48.25
Demand
Trend
Forecasts
10
11
12
13
y
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
x
3
3.5
4.1
4.4
5
5.7
6.4
7
2
2.4
2.8
3
3.2
3.6
3.8
4
MAD
Period
Actual
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
217
213
216
210
213
219
216
212
Forecast Error
215
216
215
214
211
214
217
216
2
-3
1
-4
2
5
-1
-4
MSE
MAPE
2.75
10.86
1.28%
|Error|
Error^2
|Error|/Actual %
2
4
0.92%
3
9
1.41%
1
1
0.46%
4
16
1.90%
2
4
0.94%
5
25
2.28%
1
1
0.46%
4
16
1.89%
Month
A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
F
47
51
54
55
49
46
38
32
25
24
30
35
44
57
60
55
51
48
42
30
28
25
35
38
e
43
44
50
51
54
48
46
44
35
26
25
32
34
50
51
54
55
51
50
43
38
27
27
32
e^2
4
7
4
4
-5
-2
-8
-12
-10
-2
5
3
10
7
9
1
-4
-3
-8
-13
-10
-2
8
6
|e|
16
49
16
16
25
4
64
144
100
4
25
9
100
49
81
1
16
9
64
169
100
4
64
36
Cumulative e
4
7
4
4
5
2
8
12
10
2
5
3
10
7
9
1
4
3
8
13
10
2
8
6
SMAD
4
11
15
19
14
12
4
-8
-18
-20
-15
-12
-2
5
14
15
11
8
0
-13
-23
-25
-17
-11
TS
5.64
5.11
6.09
6.27
6.82
5.65
5.32
4.86
5.49
6.99
7.59
6.47
6.78
6.62
-3.45
-2.66
-2.35
-0.33
0.80
2.05
2.65
2.07
1.65
0.00
-1.86
-3.03
-3.86
-2.51
-1.66
UCL
CL
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
LCL
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
OK
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
0.2
-3.86
2.65
4
5.8
-0.46
47.71
6.91
2
TS Status
Alpha
Min
Max
Limit
MAD
Mean e
MSE
s
No of s
15
10
5
0
1
-5
-10
-15
e
UCL
4
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
CL
LCL