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Year

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Demand MA-3
MA-5
10
18
29
15
19
30
21
12
25
16
19
8
19
22
12
14
15
15
15
27
17
30
19
24

35
30

20
21
20
16
18
14
15
17
22

25
20
15
10
5
0
1

Note
Smoothing of the demand
Difference in MA3 and MA5

Demand
MA-3
MA-5

of the demand
in MA3 and MA5

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Demand WMA3
MA3
10
18
29
15
27.9
30
16.4
12
28.5
16
13.8
8
15.6
22
8.8
14
20.6
15
14.8
27
14.9
30
25.8
23
29.7
15
23.7
15.8

W1
W2
W3
19
21
25
19
19
12
15
15
17
19
24
27
23

0
0.1
0.9
1

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1

Demand
WMA3
MA3

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Alpha

40%

47

Demand ES1
ES1
ES2
42
40
42.00
42.00
42.00
43
41.80
41.80
41.20
40
41.92
41.92
42.28
41
41.73
41.73
41.15
39
41.66
41.66
41.44
46
41.39
41.39
40.59
44
41.85
41.85
43.23
45
42.07
42.07
42.71
38
42.36
42.36
43.24
40
41.92
41.92
40.62
41.73
41.73
41.15

45

10%
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

49

Alpha

43
41
39
37
35
1

Demand
ES1
ES2

10

11

12

b
a
10 7.509091

699.4
790

Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

y=a+bt

Equation

Demand
700
724
720
728
740
742
758
750
770
775

Linear1
706.9091
714.4182
721.9273
729.4364
736.9455
744.4545
751.9636
759.4727
766.9818
774.4909
782

780

Linear2
706.9091
714.4182
721.9273
729.4364
736.9455
744.4545
751.9636
759.4727
766.9818
774.4909
782

770
760
750
740
730
720
710
700
690
1

Demand
Linear1

10

11

Alpha
Beta

40%
30%
780

Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Demand Change
T
S
TAF
700
724
24
720
-4
728
8
9.33
740
9.33
738.40
737.33
742
9.65
745.44
747.73
758
8.97
756.26
755.09
750
9.31
759.13
765.22
770
7.49
769.07
768.45
775
7.67
775.93
776.56
783.61

770
760
750
740
730
720
710
700
690
1

Demand
TAF

10

11

Period

Year

Quarter

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

Demand MA4
MA2
Demand/MA2
14
18
28.25
35
31.75
30.00
1.17
46
36.25
34.00
1.35
28
42.5
39.375
0.71
36
48.75
45.625
0.79
60
53
50.875
1.18
71
57.5
55.25
1.29
45
63.5
60.5
0.74
54
67.75
65.625
0.82
84
71
69.375
1.21
88
58

DD
0.72
0.80
1.17
1.31
0.72
0.80
1.17
1.31
0.72
0.80
1.17
1.31
0.72

120
100
80
Demand
DD

60

Trend
40

Forecasts

20
0
1

10

11

12

13

19.43
22.55
29.80
35.21
38.86
45.09
51.09
54.34
62.45
67.64
71.52
67.35
80.49

Trend
19.23
24.19
29.15
34.12
39.08
44.04
49.00
53.96
58.92
63.88
68.85
73.81
78.77

Forecasts
13.86
19.31
34.24
44.57
28.16
35.16
57.55
70.51
42.46
51.00
80.86
96.44
56.76

Quarter
1
2
3
4

1.45
1.61
3.56
2.64
Total

Avg for Quarter Seasonal Relative


0.727
0.72
0.806
0.80
1.186
1.17
1.319
1.31
4.038

Period

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

Quarter
1

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

Demand Trend
14 19.2308
18 24.1923
35 29.1538
46 34.1154
28 39.0769
36 44.0385
60 49.0000
71 53.9615
45 58.9231
54 63.8846
84 68.8462
88 73.8077
58 78.7692

Forecasts
11.55839
18.05022
36.05208
48.3154
23.48665
32.85771
60.59413
76.42221
35.41491
47.66521
85.13618
104.529
47.34316

Quarter
1
2
3
4

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1

Year 1

Year 2
14
18
35
46

Year 3
28
36
60
71

45
54
84
88

Seasonal
Average SA Index Year 4
29.00 0.60104
58
36.00 0.74611
59.67 1.23661
68.33 1.41623
48.25

Demand
Trend
Forecasts

10

11

12

13

y
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

x
3
3.5
4.1
4.4
5
5.7
6.4
7

2
2.4
2.8
3
3.2
3.6
3.8
4

y = demand for newspapers in thousands


x = population in tens of thousands of people

MAD
Period

Actual
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

217
213
216
210
213
219
216
212

Forecast Error
215
216
215
214
211
214
217
216

2
-3
1
-4
2
5
-1
-4

MSE

MAPE

2.75
10.86
1.28%
|Error|
Error^2
|Error|/Actual %
2
4
0.92%
3
9
1.41%
1
1
0.46%
4
16
1.90%
2
4
0.94%
5
25
2.28%
1
1
0.46%
4
16
1.89%

Month

A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

F
47
51
54
55
49
46
38
32
25
24
30
35
44
57
60
55
51
48
42
30
28
25
35
38

e
43
44
50
51
54
48
46
44
35
26
25
32
34
50
51
54
55
51
50
43
38
27
27
32

e^2
4
7
4
4
-5
-2
-8
-12
-10
-2
5
3
10
7
9
1
-4
-3
-8
-13
-10
-2
8
6

|e|
16
49
16
16
25
4
64
144
100
4
25
9
100
49
81
1
16
9
64
169
100
4
64
36

Cumulative e
4
7
4
4
5
2
8
12
10
2
5
3
10
7
9
1
4
3
8
13
10
2
8
6

SMAD
4
11
15
19
14
12
4
-8
-18
-20
-15
-12
-2
5
14
15
11
8
0
-13
-23
-25
-17
-11

TS

5.64
5.11
6.09
6.27
6.82
5.65
5.32
4.86
5.49
6.99
7.59
6.47
6.78
6.62

-3.45
-2.66
-2.35
-0.33
0.80
2.05
2.65
2.07
1.65
0.00
-1.86
-3.03
-3.86
-2.51
-1.66

UCL

CL
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36
13.36

LCL
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46
-0.46

OK
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27
-14.27

0.2
-3.86
2.65
4
5.8
-0.46
47.71
6.91
2

TS Status
Alpha
Min
Max
Limit
MAD
Mean e
MSE
s
No of s

15
10
5
0
1
-5
-10
-15

e
UCL
4

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

CL
LCL