IMAGINING LIFE STYLE CHAGES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A KERALA SCENARIO

Thrivikramji K. P.
C/32, Sankar Lane
Sasthamangalam, Trivandrum 695010
(Formerly Professor of Geology, University of Kerala)

thrivikramji@gmail.com

Abstract
Among the Indian states, Kerala occupies a relatively high rank in respect of the benefits accruing from
the Kerala Model (KM) of Development, and large content of remittances by expatriates. Kerala, one of
the smaller states (area= 38,854.97 km2, pop. density =819/km2) of the Union of India, traditionally stood
ahead in respect of public welfare initiatives, health care and educational opportunities at all levels. The
unique physical setting, location in the west coast of India (i.e., in the tropical monsoon belt) and
numerous small and some medium west flowing rivers are special endowments to the state s agricultural
economy and its population. Such natural, climatic, geographic and cultural advantages are reflected in
the lifestyle and quality of life or the index of human development the people (Table 1).

Table 1 Kerala: Salient features

2
Area: 38,836 km ; Population: 31.8 million (Census, 2001)
Size of side of support square: 34 m; Population density: 798/km
2
Highland, elevation >75.0m; area: 18,696 km , (48.14%)
2
Midland, elevation 7.5-75.0m; area: 16218 km ,(41.76%)
2
Coastal land, elevation <7.5 m; area: 3922 km , (10.10%)
2
Low coastal land: 2992 km ; 76.29%
2
High coastal land: 930 km ; 23.71%

Though massive industrialization is yet to catch up like certain other Indian states, Kerala enjoys certain
firsts or near firsts in the production of agricultural commodities like, natural rubber, coconut, areca nut,
tapioca, coffee, cardamom and tea. In India, the state is renowned as the largest exporter of produces
like cashew, ginger and turmeric. In other words the agricultural economy is principally a perennial crop
based one. In fact, the single most important contributor for the success of the KM of development is the
state s policies on the one hand and its agricultural economy on the other. Fundamentally, the fuel for the
success of farming in the state is the 120 140 rainy days per year contributed by the wet and maritime
tropical climate with distinct wet and dry seasons or spells.
.
The manifestations of climate change (CC) projected in the rise of average temperatures to the tune of 4
deg. C by 2050, in terms of modification of patterns, chiefly like duration, intensity, seasons, and
consequently the number of wet and dry days enjoyed in the state. Yield of various crops (both seasonal
and perennial) in terms of production per unit area, is intensely and intimately subject to either the
number of dry or wet days which in turn would affect the content of soil moisture, soil temperature, air
temperature, depth to water table, moisture in the lower air column and above all the cloud cover and
hence the level of insolation.

Such CC shall modify the temperature and moisture content near then ground which can be attributed to
lower level of soil erosion or soil loss and hence of natural nutrients borne by them. An added advantage
will be the associated lower incidence of pests. Thus, the CC will have far reaching influences on the
agricultural economy and consequently both on the incomes of farmer and the farmhand and weeds that
consume a large chunk of money going into the cultural practices.

This will be reflected on the life style and quality of life, quantum of disposable income and desire to pay
taxes and repay loans to the banks or other lending institutions and ultimately lowering the SGDP, which
would force modification of states monetary policy as well as well as other public policies in the areas of
health, education and welfare

Table 2 Potential Impacts of CC on Kerala

High land Midland Coastal land

Natural forest:
Decrease in plant species
diversity-consequent fall in animal
species diversity- increasing
dryness higher wind and water
erosion soil loss
Soil and nutrients:
Loss of soil moisture due to
extended days of drought and
severe showery days loss of soil
and soil nutrients due to intense
rain water erosion
Agrobiodiversity:
Exposure of cardamom, tea,
coffee, rubber and others to long
warmer spells and heavy rainy
spells both adverse for these
crops.
Pests and vectors:
A jump in intensity of invasion- but
durations may decline
Hydro-power:
Bleak outlook- span of wet days
decline and so is base flow days-
decline of days reservoir staying
at or near FRL higher power
demand due to rising demand for
air-conditioning for extended
periods; for pumping water from
wells, irrigation and drinking water
supply schemes.
Agro-biodiversity: harmed due to
drier soil and drier air- decreasing
latex yield in rubber plantations-
decreasing homestead farm
production decline in livestock
farming and milk production
decrease in food crop farming and
out put -
Soil and nutrients:
Decrease in nutrients and
increase in area under eroded
soils- extreme wet and dry spells
tend to erode top soil and
nutrients
Agro-biodiversity:
Decrease in yield from rubber,
coconut, arecanut farms
decrease in soil moisture and air
moisture- soil microbes change
due to physical changes in soil
Pests & vectors:
Density will jump but duration of
activity may decline
Surface & ground water:
Decline in the duration of base
flow in streams- aquifers get
deeper- increase in kwh per /m3
of water lifted for use in farms,
industry and homes. Dissolved
ion content in water may go up
due to decreasing dilution and
higher evaporation loss of soil
moisture.
Severe erosion of beaches in
LCL- shoreline migrates eastward
beach front property and homes
damaged- civic facilities like
coastal roads, water supply lines,
waste water disposal and
sanitation facilities damaged-
power standards and supply
system uprooted
Salinity rise in soil moisture -
Water table rise damages
foundation of public buildings and
homes domestic shaft well
water turns brackish - quality of
public water supply sources
decline.
Salinity intrusion into aquifers-
inlets and coastal wetlands
wetland ecosystems including
paddy fields in LCL affected- plant
and machinery in the
manufacturing units ruin by
salinity intrusions
Wetland fauna and flora go into
environmental stress - due to
disruptions unable to migrate or
re-establish.
Water in wetlands (kayals) , river
channels, intra-costal water ways
all suffer by higher salinity-
aquatic animal and plant life
under duress many may
become extinct water supply
system and sources suffer-
disruptions in civic life and stress
due to higher temperatures may
make citizens prone to anger and
violence- increasing violence and
anarchy in the society.

Sizable decline of number of work days and gainful employment of working age population of the society
both directly and indirectly in the agricultural and support sectors could lead to lower household incomes.
This may manifest in the form of social unrest, rise in the petty crimes like thefts and even felonies. The
warmer days and possibly nights and scarcity of drinking water may change the behavior of members of
the community and could lead to altercations, street fights etc resulting in rise in law and order problems.
Water scarcity can also result in the rise of water borne diseases and fights for drinking water especially
by the women folk. The God s own country may change to The Devil s own land .
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