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2013 World Economic, Industry and

Commodity Market Outlook


December 2012

Marubeni Research Institute


I. World Economic Outlook
1-1. Advanced Country Outlook: Pick-Up in 2nd Half of Year
 Developed country economies should pick-up in the 2nd half of 2013
– In the U.S. if the “fiscal cliff” is avoided business and household sentiment should improve and with household balance sheet adjustments likely progressing the pace of recovery in the
U.S. economy should speed-up.
– In Japan, a recovery in the external (world) economy and reconstruction demand propped up by the government’s supplementary budget should lead to an upturn in the economy.
Although Europe faces a hostile economic environment, a likely recovery in the world economy should allow it to escape from an economic recession.
 Possible background to a weak recovery: A deterioration in U.S. fiscal circumstances, and Japan being unable to depend on external demand (and
accompanying capital investment, etc.) to drive its economy, as it has in the past, could be causes
– In past U.S. economic recessions expansionary fiscal policies were used to lead to recoveries, however, this time the deficit is being reduced before the economy has picked.
– In Japan, before the economic bubble the economy was led by corporate activity driven by external demand. This time input from the corporate sector is weak, while personal
consumption’s contribution, driven by various types of purchase subsidies, is large.

▽Major Advanced Countries’ Mining/Manufacturing Production ▽U.S. Fiscal Balance/GDP Growth Rate- 3 Year Periods After Recessions
※dotted line is forecast image (as % of GDP)
(2010/1=100) 15 (%) GDP growth rate (left axis)
GDP成長率(1期ラグ) (GDP比、%) -15
116 fiscal balance (right axis)
財政収支(右目盛)
114 10 -10
112 米国U.S. 5 -5
110
Euro Zone
ユーロ圏 0 0
108 recessionary
景気後退期(推定) phase
(estimate) -5 5
106
104 -10 11/73~
73年11月~ 7/81~
81年7月~ 7/90~
90年7月~ 3/01~
01年3月~ 12/07~
07年12月~足元 10
102
100 ▽Japan’s Corporate Sector Contribution in Economic Expansion Phases
98 Economic Real GDP Corporate Sector Contribution Contribution - Other
96 Average Growth Capital Investment Personal Consumption
Expansion
94 Rate for Period Net Exports Government Expenditure
Cycles Private Inventory etc.
92 Japan
日本 2/83~6/85 5.3% 3.9% 1.4%
90 recessionary
景気後退期
phase 11/86~2/91 5.7% 2.0% 3.7%
88 (estimate)
(推定) 10/93~5/97 2.4% 0.2% 2.3%
86 1/99~11/00 0.9% 0.6% 0.3%
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1/02~2/06 1.8% 1.5% 0.3%


3/09~ 2.2% 0.5% 1.7%
Sources: FRB, Eurostat, METI Sources: U.S. Commerce Dept., Japan Cabinet Office

Marubeni Research Institute 1


I. World Economic Outlook
1-2. BRICs Outlook: China/Brazil Emerge from Deceleration Phase Toward Recovery
 Deceleration Background: Influence of fiscal/monetary tightening from mid-2010 through 2011 and economic slowdown in the developed countries, affected
both internal and external demand
– The large-scale fiscal stimulus actions and monetary easing that followed the Lehman shock were curtailed from around mid-2010 and tightening ensued with negative effects appearing
in 2012 in the form of slowing domestic demand.
– From 2011 sporadic slowdowns in developed country economies continued suppressing somewhat the BRICs economies due to the lower external demand.
 While India and Russia have sluggish growth prospects for 2013, China and Brazil are expected to move out of their deceleration paths onto recovery tracks
– China, Brazil and various other emerging economies are expected to reverse their current deceleration trend on the back of recoveries in advanced countries and the effects from their
current economic stimulus measures.
– In India, due to the high level of debt further government fiscal expenditure is difficult and with high inflation monetary easing is problematic, so the economy’s ability to recover is weak.
Russia’s economy will remain sluggish due to the impact of Europe’s economic woes.

▽BRICs Mining/Manufacturing Production ▽BRICs Interest Rates


(vs. previous year, %)
(前年比、%) 14 (%)
22 ※dotted line is forecast image 13 Brazil
ブラジル
12
20 Brazil Russia 11 Russia
ロシア
18 10
India China 9
16 8
7 India
14 6 インド
5
12 4 China
中国
10 09/1 09/7 10/1 10/7 11/1 11/7 12/1 12/7
8 ▽BRICs Real GDP
6 domestic external
(前年比寄与度、%)
(vs. previous year’s degree GDP
4 12 of contribution, %) 内需
demand 外需
demand GDP
10
2 8
0 6
4
-2 2
0
-4 -2
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12Q2
-6
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12/11

Note: BRIC countries real GDPs are based on the IMF’s PPP valuations
Source: Bloomberg. Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, each country’s government statistics

Marubeni Research Institute 2


I. World Economic Outlook
(Reference) 2013-14 Growth Rates: Advanced Countries 2%, Emerging Economies 6%
The world economy will see a gradual recovery in 2013-14. We should see average growth rates of around 2% for developed countries and 6% for
newly emerging economies.
In terms of the world economy, with the problem of fiscal deficits in the developed countries stemming from enlarged government debt and instability in the financial
markets still remaining, economic growth in the developed countries should be moderate at around 2%. As balance sheet adjustments in the U.S. move forward, the
growth rate should gradually pick-up. In Europe, with austerity measures still being carried out economic growth will likely remain at low levels. In Japan, the current
growth rate of between 0% and 1% should continue.
There will be no change in the emerging economies as the main players in driving the world economy. Emerging economy middle classes continue to expand, while the
size of consumer markets increase. Furthermore, strong investment is boosting domestic demand. However, because economic growth in emerging and developing
economies is relatively unstable (inconsistent), growth rates will not generally reach the 7% to 9% levels seen before the Lehman shock occurred.
▽ Economic Growth Rate Forecasts (vs. previous year, %)
vs. prior year vs. prior year vs. prior year vs. prior year vs. prior year vs. prior year vs. prior year
Share
(actual) (actual) (actual) (estimate) (forecast) (forecast) (forecast)
World 100.0 2.8 -0.6 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.6 4.1
Advanced Economies 51.1 0.1 -3.5 3.0 1.6 1.3 1.5 2.3
US 19.1 -0.3 -3.1 3.0 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.3
Euro Zone 14.2 0.4 -4.4 2.0 1.4 -0.4 1.1 2.2
Japan 5.6 -1.0 -5.5 4.7 -0.6 2.7 0.7 0.5
UK 2.9 -1.0 -4.0 1.8 0.8 -0.4 1.1 2.2
NIEs 3.9 1.8 -0.7 8.5 4.0 2.1 3.6 4.1
Newly Emerging Economies 48.9 6.1 2.7 7.4 6.2 5.3 5.6 5.9
Central/Eastern
Central/Eastern
Europe
Europe 3.5 3.2 -3.6 4.6 5.3 2.0 2.6 3.2
Russia
Russia 3.0 5.2 -7.8 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.9
ChinaChina 14.3 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.2 7.8 8.2 8.5
IndiaIndia 5.6 6.9 5.9 10.1 6.9 4.9 6.0 6.4
ASEAN
ASEAN55 3.6 4.8 1.7 7.0 4.5 5.4 5.8 5.7
Central/South
Central/South
America
America 8.7 4.2 -1.5 6.2 4.5 3.2 3.9 4.1
BrazilBrazil 2.9 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 1.5 4.0 4.2
Middle East/North Africa 4.9 4.5 2.6 5.0 3.3 5.3 3.6 3.8
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.5 5.6 2.8 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.7 5.5
Sources: IMF ” World Economic Outlook , October 2012, Marubeni Research Institute
Marubeni Research Institute 3
I. World Economic Outlook
1-3. 2013 Main Points: ① Uncertainty Over U.S./Europe Economic Policies a Risk Factor
40 ▽Long-Term Interest Rates and Policy Responses
9/10: Greece debt problems emerge
09/10:ギリシャ債務問題発覚  Europe: Although financial support
10/4-5: Greece aid request agreed to Dec.: LTRO carried out
LTRO実施:12月
35 10/4・5:ギリシャ支援要請・合意 Greece
ギリシャ measures put in place, it has not led to
10/6: EFSF established May/June: Greek elections
10/6:EFSF設立 5・6月: ギリシャ選挙 (B-)
(B-) a fundamental solution to the crisis
Nov./Dec.:
ECB利下げ:11・12月 ECB lowers interest rates July: ECB lowers interest rates – Such financial support schemes as the
30 7月:ECB利下げ Portugal
ポルトガル
(BB)
(BB)
introduction of outright monetary transactions
ポルトガル Sept.:
9月: OMT導入OMT introduced
25 Apr.: Portugal requests support (OTM), or the unlimited purchase of
支援要請:4月 Spain
スペイン government bonds (Sept.), by the ECB, and the
ESM inaugurated: Oct. ESM inaugurated: Oct. (BBB-)
(BBB-) launch of the European Stability Mechanism
20 July: Portugal requests support
ギリシャ2次支援合意:7月 ESM発足:10月
ギリシャ債務再編実施:3月 Lending to Greece resumed: Nov. Ireland
アイルランド (ESM) as a safety net to maintain financial
ギリシャ再融資決定:11月 order (Oct.), etc., have been put forth one after
(BBB-)
(BBB+)
15 スペイン銀行支援/ another.
Spanish bank support/Greek bond purchases: Dec. Italy
イタリア
ギリシャ国債買取:12月 – Lending to Greece resumes (Dec.).
10 (BBB-)
(BBB+) Repurchases of government bonds to reduce
France
フランス debt proceeds smoothly, and the debt level falls
5 (AA-))
(AA+) 9.5% against GDP.
Germany
ドイツ – Moves to establish a central supervising
(%) (AAA)
(AAA)
mechanism for Euro area banks (planned to
0
start in March 2014). The long-term aim is
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 region-wide financial integration through a
2011年 2012年 banking union.
Source: Bloomberg Note: Ireland 9 year bond rating is based on the S&P long-term Irish currency rating (as of 12/19) – On the other hand, the existence of unstable
domestic political situations, like recent local
▽Business Confidence (Industry PMI) ▽Obama Administration (Democrats) and elections voicing discontent with austerity
62 Over 50 = expanding activities/Under 50 = shrinking
(50以上は活動拡大、50以下は縮小) Republican Party on the “Fiscal Cliff” policies in Spain and the announcement of
60 Prime Minister Monti’s resignation in Italy, show
58 President (Democrats) Republicans that confidence in these policies is dropping.
Agreement in principle to end tax cuts for the wealthy (real tax – With economic growth not expected there is
56 Revenues uncertainty over whether fiscal reconstruction
increase). Negotiating the definition of wealthy.
54 can be achieved or not in many Euro countries.
Against any large-scale cuts to Seek to shrink the scope of the
52  U.S.: Falling confidence over
Expenditures Medicare/Medicaid. Medicare/Medicaid system. government policies related to the
50
Seek to cut defense spending. Against cuts to defense budget. “fiscal cliff”.
48
Give authority to the Raise the ceiling for a limited – Due to uncertainty over the fiscal cliff business
46 Debt Ceiling
米国
U.S. Euro
ユーロ圏 Zone administration to raise the limit. period. sentiment has not improved. The key to a real
44 economic recovery in the U.S. is avoiding the
Sources: Various media reports
42 fiscal cliff.
– Even if the fiscal cliff is avoided though, the
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11/4
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12/1
12/4
12/7
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11/10

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problem of fiscal reconstruction in the mid to


Source: Bloomberg long-term still remains.

Marubeni Research Institute 4


I. World Economic Outlook
1-4. 2013 Main Points: ② East Asia Growth Expectations Lower, Restraining Economies
▽Change in China Growth Rate Forecast ▽Business Confidence (Industry PMI)  Future growth expectations low
(all IMF autumn forecasts) Over 50 = expanding activities/Under 50 = shrinking – Even 4 years after the Lehman shock, the
(50以上は活動拡大、50以下は縮小)
10.0
(%) 58 economic strength of such East Asian
56 Japan
日本 China
中国 countries as China and Japan, among others,
continues to be lower than it was before the
9.5 54 crisis, which is one factor in largely reduced
52 expectations for future growth.
9.0 50 – If you look at the IMF’s long-term growth rate
forecasts for China (all made in autumn), they
48 were initially around 9.5% which would have
8.5 been a return to the growth rates of the first
46
2009年秋予測
2009 forecast
half of the 2000s. However, the current
2010 forecast
2010年秋予測 44
8.0 forecast has been substantially revised

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11/11

12/11
2011 forecast
2011年秋予測 downward to about 8.5%.
2012 forecast
2012年秋予測
7.5
– Along the same lines, Japan’s long-term
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Bloomberg growth forecast prior to the Lehman shock
was pegged at just under 2%, but has
▽Change in Japan Growth Rate Forecast ▽Real GDP Growth Rate and Per Capita GDP (PPP) recently been lowered to 1%.
(all IMF autumn forecasts) – Earlier forecasts for mid to long-term Korean

2017
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
(China,
(中国、年) year)
growth were around 5%, but since have been
16 45,000 cut to about 4%. It seems that countries
(%) 2009年秋予測
2009 forecast GDP成長率
GDP growth rate per capita GDP
1人当たりGDP (
2.5 14 40,000 一 facing the prospects of lower growth are more
2010年秋予測
2010 forecast (China)
(中国) (Korea)
(韓国)
( 12 than just a few.
2011 forecast
2011年秋予測 G 35,000 人
10 当  Reduced confidence in growth may be
(GDP growth rate, %)

2012 forecast
2012年秋予測 D

(per capita GDP, $)


2.0 8 30,000 た shackling economies

成 6 25,000 り – In Japan and China, shrinking growth
長 4 GDP growth rate
GDP成長率 G expectations have led to a worsening in
1.5 20,000
率 (Korea) D business sentiment. As firms and households
2 (韓国)
15,000 P

0 lose confidence in the prospects for future
% 、
1.0 ) -2
10,000 ド growth, economic activity falls off, and puts a
5,000 ル damper on the possibilities for growth.
-4 1人当たりGDP
per capita GDP – In Korea the economic growth rate has

-6 (China)
(中国) 0
0.5 declined even in the face of rising per capita
1997
1999
2001
2003
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995

2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Korea, year)
(韓国、年) GDP. China has been following a similar path,
and as mentioned above, is not likely to avoid
Source: IMF Note: Years after 2012 are forecasted. Source: IMF a lower growth rate.

Marubeni Research Institute 5


I. World Economic Outlook
2. U.S.: Housing Market Recovering/Household Debt Improving = Stable Economic Growth
▽Real GDP Growth Rate ▽Change in Non-Farm Sector Employment  Economy recovering, but fiscal
6 (季調済前期比寄与度、%)
(seasonally adjusted degree of annually
年次 (vs. prior month) problem an issue
contribution vs. prior period, %) 60 (万人)
600
5 (10,000 persons) – Weak corporate sector (exports, capital
4.1 40 400
4 investment) being compensated by an
2.3
2.6
20 200 ongoing moderate recovery in the household
3 2.2 2.4 2.7
2.5 2.0 2.4 2 .2 0 0 sector (personal consumption, residential
2
-20 -200 investment).
2 .1
1 1.8
-40 -400
– As far as scenarios related to the “fiscal cliff”
1.3 1.3 problem go; ① the Democrats and
0 -60 -600
0.1 Republicans come to terms and avoid it, ②
-1 -80 -800 the decision is postponed until spring, or ③
-2 external domestic -100 -1,000 no agreement is reached, which we don’t
外需 内需 real GDP
実質GDP believe will happen.

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demand demand
-3
 Household debt situation improves
11年
12年
13年
10年
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10Q3
10Q4
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11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
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12Q3

govern- private non-farm sector accumulated


政府 民間 非農業部門増減累計(右軸) – Due to the slowdown in the world economy
ment sector increase/decrease (right axis)
(※) 2012-13 are IMF estimates. Source: CEIC database and uncertainty over fiscal policy capital
Sources: CEIC database, IMF investment in the corporate sector has
▽Household Sector Loans/ worsened. So the corporate sector should
▽Housing Sales and Prices Outstanding Debt ÷ Disposable Income remain sluggish for the time being.
(seasonally adjusted, (seasonally adjusted,
– Strong auto sales show that the household
1000 (季調値、万件) (季調値、2000/1=100) 220 140 (%) $ billion
(10億ドル) 14,000 sector has picked up. The background to this
10,000 units) 1/2000 = 100)
その他ローン(右軸)
other loans (left axis) 12,000
is the progress households have made in
800
200 130 cleaning up their balance sheets. The
住宅ローン(右軸)
housing loans (right axis)
10,000 housing sector, which has been a major
180 120 outstanding debt ÷ issue in the U.S. economy, has seen
債務残高/可処分所得
600 disposable income 8,000 continued improvement in sales and prices
160 110 which is giving a boost to the economy.
400
6,000 However, there is some concern over the
140 100 sustainability of this economic recovery due
4,000 to the slow pace in the recovery of
200 new home sales
新築住宅販売件数 90 disposable income.
existing home sales
中古住宅販売件数
120 2,000 – On the employment front, even though the
Case-Shiller home price index, (20 cities, right axis)
ケース・シラー住宅価格指数(20都市、右軸)
80 0 unemployment rate has continued to remain
0 100 high, non-farm payrolls rose by more than
96Q1

10Q1
95Q1

97Q1
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99Q1
00Q1
01Q1
02Q1
03Q1
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1

11Q1
12Q1
06Q1
06Q3
07Q1
07Q3
08Q1
08Q3
09Q1
09Q3
10Q1
10Q3
11Q1
11Q3
12Q1
12Q3

100,000 in the second half of the year. Led


Sources: BEA, FRB by the private sector, the mild recovery is
Sources: CEIC database, S&P expected to continue.
Marubeni Research Institute 6
I. World Economic Outlook
3. Europe: Emerging From Recession, But Recovery To Be Mild
▽Euro Zone Real GDP ▽ GDP Growth by Country
1.5 2.5 103  Economic slump continues
(暦年)year)
(calendar (2008Q1=100)
– The European economy has had negative
1.0 2.0 100 growth ever since the Oct.-Dec. period of
2.0
1.4 2011.
0.5 – Growth rates in the engines of the region’s
1.5
0.0 95 economy, Germany and France, have been
1.0 dull. No improvement in the high rates of
-0.5 unemployment, centered on Greece and
0.5 0.2 90 Spain, has been seen.
-1.0 Germany
ドイツ  Long-term interest rates have
France
フランス
-1.5
external
外需 demand 0.0 stabilized
Spain
スペイン
domestic
内需 demand 85 – Following the official introduction of the OMT
-2.0 -0.5 Italy
イタリア and ESM schemes, long-term interest rates
実質GDP
real GDP -0.4 ギリシャ
Greece began heading downward. Following
(前期比%)
(vs. prior period, %) (%)
-2.5 -1.0 agreement for additional aid to Greece and
80

2013
2010
2011
2012
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07Q3
08Q1
08Q3
09Q1
09Q3
10Q1
10Q3
11Q1
11Q3
12Q1
12Q3

the implementation of support for Spanish

09Q3

12Q1
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08Q3

09Q1

10Q1

10Q3

11Q1

11Q3

12Q3
banks, financial markets began to return
(※)2012-13 are IMF estimates Sources: Eurostat, IMF from their previous lull.
Source: Eurostat – Such political cooperation as the creation of
▽Unemployment Rate 160 ▽Labor Costs a central supervising body for banks, etc.,
30 (2001Q1=100) aimed at stabilizing financial markets will
ギリシャ
Greece 155
Spain
スペイン continue.
25 Spain
スペイン 150
France
フランス
Italy
イタリア
145  Labor costs falling
Italy
イタリア
20 France
140
Greece
ギリシャ
– With austerity measures continuing, it is
フランス 135
Germany
ドイツ
difficult to expect a self-sustained recovery
Germany
ドイツ 130 led by domestic demand occurring.
15
125 – Although there is no evidence of an
10
120 improving economy, Greek labor costs have
115 been declining.
110 – Europe’s economy is expected to begin to
5 105 pick-up and emerge from its downturn from
(%) 100 spring of 2013 driven by exports centering
0 95 on Germany as a by-product of an improving
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09Q4

10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
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11Q2
11Q3

12Q1
12Q2
12Q3

06Q3
07Q1
07Q3
08Q1
08Q3
09Q1
09Q3
10Q1
10Q3
11Q1
00Q1
00Q3
01Q1
01Q3
02Q1
02Q3
03Q1
03Q3
04Q1
04Q3
05Q1
05Q3
06Q1

world economy. However, the pace of the


recovery should be rather moderate.
Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Marubeni Research Institute 7


I. World Economic Outlook
4. Japan: External Demand Starting Point to Gradual Recovery
▽Real GDP Growth Rate ▽Current Account Balance (fiscal year base)  2012: Confusion due to policy effects,
12 (seasonally adjusted degree of
(季調済前期比寄与度、%) annual (trillion yen) Japan Foreign external demand’s downside
年次 30 (兆円)
10 contribution vs. prior period, %) Trade Council
日本貿易会予測
estimate – On the one hand the economy was helped by
8 10.4 25 reconstruction driven demand, on the other it was hurt
5.8 5.5 5.7
6 4.4 20 by the end of eco-car purchase subsidies, and the
4.7
slowdown in the world economy. This combined with
4 15
1.7 reduced exports and production caused by the
2 0.7 10 worsening relationship between Japan and China
0.3
0 seems to have sent the Japanese economy into
5
-2 -0.1 -0.6
recession.
-1.6 -2.8
0 – Mainly due to increased imports of fossil fuels as an
-4 -3.5 alternative to nuclear power the trade deficit
-5 income
所得収支
-6 -7.3 other
その他 expanded shrinking the current account surplus.
-8 external domestic real GDP
-10 trade and services
貿易・サービス収支  2013: Possible external demand led recovery
外需
demand 内需
demand
実質GDP balance
-10 -15 経常収支 – A recovery in the world economy led by the emerging
11Q4

12Q3

10年
11年
12年
13年
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3

12Q1
12Q2

economies could spark a pick-up in the Japanese

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
economy.
(※) 2012-13 are Marubeni Research Institute estimates
Sources: Japan Ministry of Finance, Japan Foreign Trade Council – However, there are fears that the economy could be
Source: CEIC database
pushed downward if reconstruction demand peaks out
▽Mining/Manufacturing Production Index ▽LDP’s Main Economic/Fiscal Policies and if the deterioration in Japan-China relations
8 Policy Area Objectives/Content remains prolonged.
■New (command) Headquarters for Japan's Economic Revitalization, development of a
"recapture of ¥50 trillion in national income project".
 New administration’s public sector
6 investment plans
■T op proirity: Escaping from deflation, yen appreciation. Achieve a nominal economic

4 (estimate)
(予測指数)
growth rate of 3%. – The new administration wants more collaborative ties
Overall ■Carry out 5 years of concentrated reform to become the "world's easiest place for
with the Bank of Japan, and might revert to revising
companies to do business" and a "country where it is possible for individuals to
2 maximize there employment and income opportunities".
the central bank law in order to carry out stronger
■Recycle overseas investment earnings domestically and vice-versa to create a growth
monetary easing policies to stamp out deflation.
0 linkage and become an "industry investment powerhouse country". – The formation of the 2013 fiscal year budget has been
■Set 2% inflation target. With a view toward reivising the central bank law, implement delayed so that it can be significantly enlarged as part
-2 Delation aggressive monetary easing policies. of the new government’s first stage emergency
Yen Depreciation ■Create a "public-private foreign bond fund" through cooperation betweent the finance economic measures.
ministry, the BOJ and the private sector.
-4 – The new administration has a 3 year, 15 trillion yen
■Early implementation of "first phase emergency economi measures (large scale
budget of ¥10 trillion?).
($150 billion) public works investment plan (National
(前期比%)
(vs. prior period, %) Infrastructure Reinforcement Plan) aimed at
-6 ■Establish a "Basic National Infrastructure Reinforcement Law" (additional ¥15 trillion
reconstruction (Northeast Japan) and large scale
10Q4

11Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3

11Q1
11Q2
11Q3

12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4

Fiscal Stimulus in ivetment over 3 years).


Growth Strategy ■Establisha a Japan Economic Revitalization and Strengthening Industrial disaster preparation. While this fiscal stimulus is
Competitiveness Law aimedat the mid to long-term. expected to make a contribution to the economy,
その他
other general machinery
一般機械 ■Significantly reduce the corporate tax rate. there are concerns that Japan’s already critical fiscal
輸送機械 machinery
transportation electrical machinery/electronics/IT
電気・情報・電子 ■Create a "Committee on Industry Competitiveness" in the Japan Economic and Fiscal
situation will only deteriorate further.
Policy Headquarters.
mining/manufacturing
鉱工業 industry
Source: METI Source: Media reports
Marubeni Research Institute 8
I. World Economic Outlook
5. China: Purposely Steering Economy Toward Self-Sustained Medium Range Growth
▽Real GDP Growth Rate (vs. same period prior year, %) ▽Economic Growth Stages  2012: Moderate recovery after hitting bottom in
Final
最終消費
Capital
資本形成
Net
純輸出 Real GDP
経済成長率
the July-Sept. period
Consumption Formation Exports Working Age Population Ratio – Such economic measures as the promotion of purchases
14.0 12.1 of eco-friendly household appliances and investment in
10.4 China subway construction and other projects to help jump start
12.0 10.3 9.7 9.8 9.8
9.5 9.2 9.3 the economy have been gradually successful. So, after
8.9
10.0 8.1 7.6 7.6-7.8 7.7 8.2 hitting bottom in the July to Sept. period of 2012, the
7.4
8.0 economy began to moderately recover.
– However, in order to avoid a crash from over-extended
6.0 high growth, the final job of the Hu Jintao government
Japan was to put the economy onto a medium paced growth
4.0
path, and as such no large scale fiscal stimulus was
2.0
Calendar
年次 Year
injected into the economy whose growth rate is expected
0.0 to remain below (%.
※ ※
-2.0  2013: Growth rate moves into 8% range on
3Q

Capital Formation to GDP Ratio


2Q

4Q

2Q
3Q
4Q

2Q
3Q
4Q

13年
10.1Q

11.1Q

12.1Q

10年
11年
12年
improved external/domestic demand
– In 2013 both the domestic and overseas demand climate
China will likely improve, so the economic growth rate should
rise to somewhere in the 8% range.
▽Main Economic Indicators – Although the new government will in all likelihood pursue
(vs. same period previous year) Jan.-Mar. Apr.-June July-Sept. Oct.-Nov. an economic growth strategy, achieving significant
growth may prove difficult as the potential growth rate has
Fixed Asset Investment 20.9% 19.9% 20.7% 21.6%
Japan shifted to a lower level (economic stage).
Investment Public Expenditure -2.4% 12.9% 23.3% 25.6%  A shift from an era of high growth to a medium
Residential Investment 27.0% 17.4% 19.0% 27.3% growth stage
Consumer Goods Sales 15.2% 13.9% 13.5% 14.7% – Since China’s open reforms began in 1978 it has
Consumption achieved an average annual growth rate of 10% (10%
Motor Vehicle Sales -3.9% 10.0% 4.4% 6.8% Exports to GDP Ratio
range) for more than 30 years .
Exports 7.6% 10.5% 4.5% 6.9% – However, limits are beginning to appear in China’s high
China growth model which was spurred by exports and
Trade Imports 7.1% 6.5% 1.6% 1.0%
investment from new economic reforms and market
Net Exports -261.6% 47.3% 24.7% 63.7% opening measures as well as its population bonus. There
Mining/Manufacturing Production 16.6% 9.5% 9.1% 9.9% is now some concern that China is falling into the middle
Steel Production 0.3% 1.6% 2.1% 11.5% income country trap.
Produciton – As a solution to this problem, raising incomes, expanding
Electricity Generation 6.5% 1.2% 2.1% 7.5% Japan the consumer market and promoting deregulation and
PMI (manufacturing) 51.5 51.3 49.7 50.4 liberalization in the economy are all necessary. In other
words, China must shift to a self-sustainable economic
Sources: China Central Statistics Bureau, United Nations Population growth model. This is the biggest challenge for the new
Bureau, World Bank government.
(※)2012-13 are Marubeni Research Institute Estimates
Marubeni Research Institute 9
I. World Economic Outlook
6. Brazil Russia: Investment Recovery Expected in Brazil, Europe to Impact Russia
14 (前年比寄与度、%)▽Brazil’s Real GDP Growth Rate calendar 12 ▽Russia’s Real GDP Growth Rate calendar(暦年)
year
(degree of contribution (暦年)
12 vs. prior period, %) year 8
7.5 4.3 4.3 3.8
10 4
8 3.7
6 2.7 4.0 0
4 -4
2 -8 external demand
外需
0
-2 1.5 -12 domestic demand
内需
-4 domestic external -16 実質GDP
real GDP
内需 外需 GDP
real GDP (vs. prior period,
(前年比 %) %)
-6 demand demand
-20

2010
2011
2012
2013
07Q1
07Q2
07Q3
07Q4
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3

08Q4

10Q4
07Q1
07Q2
07Q3
07Q4
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3

09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3

11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3

2010
2011
2012
2013
(※) 2012-13 are IMF estimates. Sources: CEIC database, IMF (※) 2012-13 are IMF estimates. Sources: CEIC database, IMF

▽Brazil’s Trade and Inward Foreign Investment 700 ($100 million)


(億ドル) ▽Russia’s Trade and Trade Growth (vs.(prior
前年比 %)
period, %) 100
800
(億ドル)
($100 million) 輸出額
exports 貿易収支
trade balance 直接投資流入額
foreign investment flows 600
500 50
600
400
400 0
300
200 200 -50
100
non-energy
非エネルギー energy-related
エネルギー関連 trade growth rate (right)
輸出伸び率(右軸)
0 0 -100
07Q1
07Q2
07Q3
07Q4
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3

09/1

11/4
07/1
07/4
07/7

08/1
08/4
08/7

09/4
09/7

10/1
10/4
10/7

11/1

11/7

12/1
12/4
12/7
07/10

08/10

09/10

10/10

11/10

12/10
Source: CEIC database Source: CEIC database

 Brazil: Recovery in Investment Key to Economic Revival  Russia: Sluggish European economy to pull Russia’s down
– Since 2011, Brazil has faced the problems of a high real, high labor costs, the peaking – Although the Russian economy has been supported by personal consumption and
out of inward foreign investment and delayed action on monetary easing action. fixed capital formation, domestic demand has been dull. Energy-related prices,
Although the government eventually cut interest rates and introduced measures to Russia’s main export category, are weak, and the sluggish European economy, its
curb the real’s rise, the economy has continued to slow. main export destination, will affect exports, so it is likely that the Russian economy
– And although there was a pick up in the economy due to fiscal stimulus focusing on will be headed for a slowdown.
consumption and led by increased auto sales, the recovery was short-lived and not – With supply limitations and continued high food prices inflation continues. However,
self-sustainable. as the employment climate is good a large drop off in personal consumption is not
– An expected improvement in external economies, including the bottoming out of the expected.
Chinese economy, and the return of capital investment spurred by monetary easing – A recovery in the world economy should diminish the effects of Russia’s sluggish
should push the Brazilian economy to a moderate recovery. consumption and help prop up the economy.
Marubeni Research Institute 10
I. World Economic Outlook
7. ASEAN: Stable Growth Buoyed by Domestic Demand
▽Real GDP Growth Rates ① ▽Consumer Prices
 Stable growth supported by domestic demand
– Steady growth continues driven by personal
consumption from expanding middle classes. In terms
of the GDP growth rate, after coming in at 4.5% in 2011
it shoutd hit 5.4% in 2012 and 5.8% in 2013.
– Due to the slowdown in the U.S. and Chinese
economies, exports have been sluggish and inward
investment from overseas has slowed, which has had
somewhat of a suppressive effect on the ASEAN
economies as a whole. However, even in such
countries as Thailand and Malaysia, whose economies
are highly dependent on overseas exports, fiscal
stimulus measures helped boost consumption and
domestic demand bolstered the economy leading to
steady growth in general.
【Indonesia】 Maintained solid growth in 2012 on the back
of domestic demand. 2013 should also see stable
Sources: CEIC database, IMF Source: CEIC database
growth led by domestic demand, however, there is
(※) 2012-13 are IMF estimates
some concern over rising inflationary pressures.
【Philippines】 Expanded public investment gave the
▽Real GDP Growth Rate ② ▽Total Exports (value) economy a boost. Remittances from overseas and
strong personal consumption continue to drive
growth.
【Thailand】 Experienced a V-shaped economic recovery
on the back of flood reconstruction measures. In
2013 there will be limits to how much external
demand can push up the Thai economy, and fiscal
stimulus aimed at boosting consumption will shrink
with a slight negative effect on the economy.
【Malaysia】 Even though external demand fell, fiscal
stimulus measures boosted consumption allowing
the economy to maintain steady growth. However,
the likely reduction of these measures in the near
future should have some effect on the economy in
the coming year.
【Vietnam】 Due to the impact of monetary tightening,
inflation is showing signs of calming. With an
Source: CEIC database
expansion of public investment foreseen in 2013, the
Sources: CEIC database, IMF economy is expected to accelerate.
(※) 2012-13 are IMF estimates

Marubeni Research Institute 11


I. World Economic Outlook
8. India/Korea: Economic Reforms Essential for India, External Demand Dependence
Continues in Korea
▽India’s Real GDP Growth Rate calendar 4 ▽Korea’s Real GDP Growth Rate (calendar year)
(暦年)
16 (暦年) (vs. prior period, %)
year
10.1 (前期比%) 7
6.3
12 2 6
6.8 6.0
8 0 5
3.6 3.6
4 4.9 -2 4
0 外需
external demand 3
-4
-4 domestic demand
内需 2 2.7
external domestic -6
-8 (degree of contribution
(前年比寄与度、%) 外需
demand 内需
demand GDP
real GDP real GDP
実質GDP 1 (%)
-12 vs. prior period, %) -8 0

07Q1

07Q3

08Q1

08Q3

09Q1

09Q3

10Q1

10Q3

11Q1

11Q3

12Q1

12Q3
2010
2011
2012
2013
07Q1
07Q2
07Q3
07Q4
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3

2012
2013
2010
2011
(※) 2012-13 are IMF estimates. Sources: Korea National Statistical Office, IMF
(※) 2012-13 are IMF estimates. Sources: Reserve Bank of India, IMF
▽India’s Wholesale Prices/Fiscal Balance 1000 (兆ウォン)
▽Korea’s Housing Prices/Outstanding Debt
(2011年6月=100) 110
(trillion won) (June 2011 = 100)
12 プライマリーバランス
primary balance 15 105
(vs. GDP, %)
(対GDP比%) 800
wholesale price index (right axis)
卸売物価指数(右軸)
8 10 100
4 5 600 95
0 0 400 90
other household debt
その他家計負債
-4 -5 85
200 housing related debt
住宅関連負債
(%) Seoul House Price Index
ソウル住宅産価格指数(右軸) 80
-8 -10
0 75
07/10

08/7
08/10

09/7
09/10

10/10

11/4

11/10

12/4

12/10
07/1
07/4
07/7

08/1
08/4

09/1
09/4

10/1
10/4
10/7

11/1

11/7

12/1

12/7

09Q2
06Q1
06Q2
06Q3
06Q4
07Q1
07Q2
07Q3
07Q4
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1

09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
Source: CEIC database Sources: CEIC database, Korea National Statistical Office

 India: Limitations due to high inflation and fiscal deficit, structural economic  Korea: Although a shift in economic policy is expected, dependence on external
reforms essential demand remains
– Due to high inflation and the government deficit, the government has not been able to carry out – As the Korean economy is dependent on external demand the economy has been slowing as
effective economic stimulus measures even as the economy decelerates. So, economic growth exports have become sluggish due to the slowdown in the world economy. Further clouding the
continues to remain dull. picture is that the relatively cheap won that exports have been dependent on, is showing signs of
– The government embarked on such economic reforms as the easing of restrictions on foreign reversing course.
investment (retail industry, etc.), and the reduction of domestic subsidies (fuel, etc.). Stock prices – Also, household debt has risen so it is hard to imagine a situation in which personal consumption
are rising on the possibility of a reduction in the fiscal deficit and improved productivity in the expands. The current external demand driven economic structure will continue into the near future,
economy. so as the world economy recovers Korean exports should pick up and lead the economy back up.
– While there is currently little room for monetary easing, the prerequisite for a full economic – One of the major challenges facing the new administration is correcting the large disparities
recovery would be an upturn in the world economy as well as accelerated investment in the (income gap, etc.) in the economy and shift away from the preferential treatment allotted the large,
economy and a recovery in domestic production based on progress on economic reform. major corporations in the economy.
Marubeni Research Institute 12
I. World Economic Outlook
9. Middle East/Africa: Democracy Movements at Midpoint, World Investment in Africa
Robust
▽ODA and FDI to Africa
 Democracy movements at midpoint
▽The Middle East/North Africa Following the “Arab Spring” ($100 million)
(億ドル) – The “Arab Spring” movements were triggered by the
700 December 2010 pro-democracy demonstrations in
Country How Democratization Started Current Situation ODA
600 ODA Tunisia and swiftly spread to other countries in the
Demonstrations break out in An interim parliament and president are put in place in Middle East and North Africa.
Decemebr 2010, President 2011. a new constitution is drawn up with parliamentary FDI
直接投資
Tunisia 500 – First in Tunisia and then in Libya and Yemen, old
Ben Ali goes into exile in and presidential elections schedule for 2013. However, regimes fell with subsequent efforts made to amend
January. enactement of the constitution is postponed. 400 their constitutions and hold new parliamentary and
Demonstrations break out in In June of 2012 the Muslim Brotherhood is declared free presidential elections, while in Egypt a civilian
January 2011. In February and legitimate, their leader Mr. Morsi enters the election 300 president emerged for the first time.
President Mubarak resigns. and becomes the first civilian president. Morsi announces – However, in Tunisia ratification of a new constitution
plans to exapnd presidential powers leading to an 200 has been delayed. In Egypt the expansion of
Egypt outbreak of demonstrations. The supreme constitutional 100 presidential authority has led to large-scale
court invalidates part of the parlianetary elections. demonstrations, and Syria is currently in a state of
President Morsi vows to hold parliamentary elections in 0 civil war. These pro-democracy movements are
the 1st half of 2013. However, their is strong opposition 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 now at their midpoint.
to a new Islamist leaning constitution, confusion reigns
Sources: UNCTAD, OECD.
 Focus is on Africa, the last of the emerging
over a voter referendum to ratify the constitution. markets
Civil war commences from In July of 2012 elections for a constitutional assembley – About half of the world’s top 20 fastest growing
February 2011. In October are instituted. In August authority was given to a ▽Japan’s ODA/FDI to Africa economies are in Africa, and with the benefit of a
Libya Libya's former leader Qaddaffi provisional national council、A cabinet was formed in population bonus through 2050 Africa’s economic
is killed. November. They will serve until a constitution has been ($100 million, minus outflows)
(億ドル、マイナスは流出超) growth potential is huge.
enacted and a general election carried out. 30 – U.S. and European companies have been quick to
Demonstrations start in In February 2012 Mr. Hadi appointed president. The see Africa’s attractiveness and have been investing
ODA
ODA
Yemen
February 2011. President constituion is to be amended in 2nd half of 2013 and 25 aggressively despite the risks involved. In recent
Saleh steps down in parliamentary and presidential elections to be carried out FDI
直接投資 years the amount foreign direct investment in Africa
November. in February 2014. 20 has overtaken the amount of ODA going to the
Demonstrations begin to occur Civil war continues between the Assad regime and the continent.
Syria in March 2011, turns into a opposition factions.
15 – On the other hand, the level of ODA going to Africa
state of civil war. 10 from Japan still far exceeds the amount of private
Bahrain Anti-government In response to calls of political and economic reform by investment flowing into the continent, which is a
Jordan demonstrations the citizenry, government says it will amend the 5 cause for concern.
Morroco constitution – In June of 2013 the Tokyo International Conference
Oman Anti-government In Oman, part of the king's authority has been transferred 0 on African Development (TICAD V), a conference
Kuwait demonstrations to congress in respons to various pre-democracy on international cooperation between Japan and
Algeria requests.
-5 Africa convened every 5 years, will be held . It is
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 expected that this conference will help activate
Sources: Japan’s Foreign Ministry, various media reports
Sources: UNCTAD, Bloomberg, BOJ Japanese investment in Africa.

Marubeni Research Institute 13


II. Industry/Commodity Market Outlook
1. Japanese Industry Directions: Major Industry Trends/Issues in 2013
1. Newly emerging markets in Africa and Indochina are gaining attention, companies reviewing their strategies toward China.
2. With the global economic growth structure shifting, companies are adjusting their business portfolios and re-integrating based on these new global realities.
3. On the domestic front, with tablet devices spreading rapidly and electric power systems transforming, various Japanese industries are moving to become
smarter by equipping themselves with smart devices and systems (IT-ization).

Paper/Pulp The domestic market for paper and paperboard peaked in 2000. Such major products as IT/Telecom The IT network and cloud computing environment is expanding. Smart phones and tablet
printing and publishing paper continue to be pressed by cheap imports. Cardboard devices continue to diversify applications, and the networking of smart phones, smart TVs,
demand will be sluggish as reconstruction demand winds down. Industry leaders are etc., creating smart appliances through LTE (wireless standard) for practical use is
aggressively making moves overseas to capture growth markets in Asia and other advancing. More advanced technology related to information security management,
regions. backup and other risk management needs is growing.
Steel With the expansion of public investment and repair of aging infrastructure、and a demand Textiles Despite a tough climate for personal consumption, there is expected to be demand for
rush for big ticket items like homes before the consumption tax is raised, construction apparel using functional materials, In terms of industrial textiles, although home sales are
demand will likely increase, however auto-related steel demand will be weak. An expected to recover, auto production is forecasted lower, so demand for auto-related
oversupply of steel will continue in East Asia. The rising cost of electricity will especially textiles should weaken. Demand for carbon fiber should be firm driven by the expansion
hurt electric arc furnaces, so the management environment in the industry will be severe. of wind power plants and use in aviation applications.
Electric Such fuel imports as LNG and heavy oil, etc., for use in electric power are at high levels. Industrial Due to the sluggish growth of the Chinese economy metal and mineral resource prices
On the other hand, gasoline demand continues to slightly shrink. In the short-term the have been on the weak side. Exports to Europe remain subdued. Large inventories of
Power/ restarting of nuclear power plants and revisal of renewable energy feed-in-tariffs in the
Plants construction machinery in such major markets as China are one of the main causes of
Energy coming year will be issues. In the mid to long-term the focus will be on government action suppressed demand. Infrastructure repair needs in developed countries is high, so
toward increased liberalization of the market and creating a fair competitive environment testing equipment demand should rise, and overall demand for industrial plants and
through reform of the electric power structure. equipment in emerging economies should continue to increase.
Chemicals Ethylene production has been slack since peaking in 2007. Industrial use chemical Construction/ According to the Research Institute of Construction and Economy forecasts construction
shipments are down in such major demand industries as motor vehicles and electric demand will be up 2.0% in fiscal 2013 compared with the previous year (fiscal 2012’s
machinery. Japanese exports are on a downward path as China and the Middle East Cement estimate is +4.1%). Government construction spending will likely fall compared to fiscal
expand production. Against rising global cost competitiveness, the key to survival is 2012, but private residential investment, including reconstruction demand should see a
production efficiency, slimming down overcapacity and targeting higher value-added moderate recovery from a demand rush by consumers to beat the raising of the
regions, meaning expanding overseas using a strategy of selection and concentration. consumption tax. However, a shit to overseas investment by the private sector could
have reverse effects offsetting the demand rush.
Electric Digital household appliance sales are sluggish. The market for PCs, game consoles, TVs, Distribution Personal consumption is expected to grow 1.1% in 2013 compared to 2012 (2012’s
etc., are shrinking as smart phones and tablet devices become alternatives. Centered on estimate is +1.7%). Due to the commoditization of tablet devices, the analysis and
Machinery Europe, demand for office equipment is weak. In terms of electrical machinery and accumulation of product and service information by customers and customer information
semiconductors used in industry, demand is brisk in products like the i-phone, however, by the service industry is both growing and becoming easier, leading to activated
Japanese manufacturers are increasingly struggling in the face of overseas competition. services. Retailers no longer waits for customer, but go to them. The virtual distance and
Attention is now turning to smart energy related equipment.. physical distance to the customer is shrinking.

Motor Domestically, in lieu of the end of lower taxes on the purchases of eco-cars it is likely that Food Food product sales are expected be up 1.1% in 2013 compared to 2012 (+0.2% in 2012).
sales will drop. Additionally, the strong yen may continue to be a burden calling for a With the increase in elderly, dual income and single households the market for the
Vehicles reconsideration of the domestic production structure. A recovery in the U.S. and ready-to-eat meals and online supermarkets will grow. Price reduction (including
Southeast Asian auto markets continues, however, reduced Japanese auto production in development of private brands) in anticipation of the hike in the consumption tax is
China is a concern. Due to slumping sales in Europe, a global realignment of the spreading, Within this climate employee cutbacks and restructuring will take place. In the
industry is starting to take place. mid-term, being able to respond to a “shrinking market” will be key.
Marubeni Research Institute 14
II. Industry/Commodity Market Outlook
2. Listed Firms (Japan) Ordinary Earnings to Recover, But Still Lower Than 2007
It is estimated that listed firms’ ordinary profits will rise by 19%, a total of about 2.8 trillion yen ($298 billion) in fiscal 2013. In particular, this will be driven by a solid U.S.
car market and by the effects of structural reforms in the Japanese electrical and precision machinery industries in fiscal 2011-12 (however, this is based on the
assumption that additional restructuring costs will not occur).
Still, compared to 2007 ordinary company profits by industry in Japan will still be generally lower. For example, profits in the steel and non-ferrous metal industry will be
73% lower than in 2007 due to a rise in raw material prices for steel and non-ferrous metals and an easing in steel demand in East Asia. On the other hand, domestic-
related demand in “telecommunications”, “food products”, and “retail” is on an upward trend.
Ordinary Company Profits by Major Industry
Compared
to fiscal (¥100 million) Motor
自動車 Vehicles (¥100 million)
電機・精密 Instruments
Electronics/Precision (¥100 million)
Steel/Non-Ferrous
鉄鋼・非鉄 Metals
(億円) (億円) (億円)
2007
60,000 60,000 60,000
50,000 50,000 50,000
Profits Decreased

40,000 40,000 40,000


30,000 30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000 10,000
0 0 0
fiscal
2007年度 2007 fiscal 2012 2013年度
2012年度 fiscal 2013 fiscal
2007年度 2007 fiscal 2012 2013年度
2012年度 fiscal 2013 fiscal
2007年度2007 fiscal
2012年度 2012 fiscal
2013年度 2013
実績
actual 予想
estimate 予想
estimate 実績
actual 予想 予想
estimate estimate actual
実績 estimate
予想 estimate
予想

通信
Telecom 食品 Products
Food 小売
Retail
(¥100
(億円) million) (¥100
(億円)million) (¥100
(億円) million)
Profits Increased

30,000 30,000 30,000


25,000 25,000 25,000
20,000 20,000 20,000
15,000 15,000 15,000
10,000 10,000 10,000
5,000 5,000 5,000
0 0 0
fiscal
2007年度2007 fiscal
2012年度 2012 fiscal
2013年度 2013 fiscal
2007年度 2007 fiscal
2012年度 2012 fiscal
2013年度 2013 fiscal 2007
2007年度 fiscal
2012年度2012 fiscal
2013年度2013
実績
actual 予想
estimate 予想
estimate 実績
actual 予想
estimate 予想
estimate 実績
actual 予想
estimate 予想
estimate
Source: Nomura Securities Fiscal 2012-13 Corporate Financial Results Outlook (December 2012)

Marubeni Research Institute 15


II. Industry/Commodity Market Outlook (Japan)
3. Electric Power/Energy Industries: Signs of Moves in New Directions/New Business
 Direction of the Electric Power and Energy Industries
–Fundamental direction; ① Review of the large-scale, centralized electric power structure, ② promotion of energy conservation/efficiency, ③ reduction of
dependence on nuclear power, and ④expansion of renewable energy.
–Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) public pledges; ① Expand energy conservation and renewable energy, ② decide within a 3-year time frame their policy on the use
of nuclear power, ③ determine in 10-years time a sustainable energy mix plan for electric power (long-term non-dependence on nuclear power or not), and ④ look
at the viability of every possible type of energy resource.
 Recent Notable Developments
–Reintroduction of Bidding on New Thermal (fossil fuel) Power Plants
• Bidding procedures are under review by Tokyo Electric Power for a 2.6 million kw thermal power plant. Trading firms, steel producers, banks, other power
companies and oil and gas companies are showing interest in participating.
• Tokyo Electric Power is accepting proposals for various types of electric power related projects from both domestic and foreign entities. Chubu Electric Power,
Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, and wholesale electricity developers (J-Power) have all made proposals.
–Introduction of a Renewable Energy Feed-in-Tariff System (July 2012)
• The recognized (approved) electric power amount related to this is 3.65 million kw (of this 3.26 million is for solar power, as of the end of November.) In Hokkaido
the cost for energy storage battery installation and the equipping of transmission networks related to renewable energy are going to be subsidized (METI).
–Structural Reform of Electric Power: At the beginning of 2013 details of the reform plan will be made public.
• Separation of electricity transmission/distribution: Separation of the different functions (parts) of electric power or at least the legal separation (ownership does not
change) to ensure fairness in the transmission and distribution of electricity.
• Retail liberalization: Consumers can initially select between a regulated price or a free market price for electricity, eventually making a full transition to free market
prices depending on progress of competition in the market place.
–Smart Community
• Experimental demonstration communities are already going forward. (Yokohama, Toyoda City, Kyoto-Osaka-Nara Research City, Kita-Kyushu City)
• Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to approve and then lend support to municipalities smart-community master plans. (Miyako City, Kita-Kami City,
Kesennuma City, Ishinomaki City, Ohira Village, Yamamotocho, Aizu-Wakamatsu City)
–Smart Meters: The aim of the government’s Energy and Environmental Committee is to have smart meters installed in 80% of total demand (household, commercial
building and industrial customers) within the next 5 years.
• All the electric power companies have already begun to introduce smart meters (Kansai Electric Power leads in this area). The assumption is that smart meters will
be needed for demand response, dynamic pricing, HEMS and BEMS in smart cities in order to make energy, i.e. electricity, distribution advanced. Expansion of
wireless data processing equipment/systems and other semiconductor related peripheral markets.
–Fuel Procurement
• Electric power and gas companies to rely on more diversified and flexible fuel procurement, and the joint construction and joint use of new facilities. For example
cooperating on the joint procurement of U.S. LNG (Chubu Electric Power and Osaka Gas) and U.S. coal (Kansai Electric Power and Kyushu Electric Power), etc.
• Aim to shift to natural gas and expand co-generation. Looking at the possibility of constructing a gas pipeline network.
Marubeni Research Institute 16
II. Industry/Commodity Market Outlook (World)
4. Resource Price: Gradual Recovery in World Economy, Price Rises Mild on Oversupply
CRB Oversupply offsets effects of economic recovery, little change Crude Oil Supply and demand continue easing, prices may rise with
economic recovery
ロイター/ジェフリーズCRB指数 Prices may see some downward Demand in advanced countries
Reuters-Jeffries CRB Index 原油(ドル/バレル)
WTI Crude Oil ($/barrel) continues to fall. An economic recovery
19 commodity basket movement at the beginning of the year
(19品目ベース) due to uncertainty over the economic 130 in the emerging economies is expected,
environment, however, a moderate 予測
forecast but with increased production from non
400
recovery in the world economy and 120 –OPEC countries the oversupply
excess liquidity in the market could situation may continue. On the other
forecast
予測 110
350 lead to some gradual upward hand, due to low interest rate policies
movement in commodity prices. Still, 100 there is excess liquidity in the global
as the economic recovery is likely to be market. If the economic recovery
300 mild there is a limitation to how far 90 progresses this capital may find its way
resource prices might rise. into the oil market ahead of the summer
80
There will be the potential for demand season and push prices up
250 average annual price
【年間平均値】
【年間平均値】
average annual price oversupply in many resources in the 2nd 70 slightly.
2011年 2012年estimate
(推計) 2013年forecast
(予想)
2011年 estimate
2012年 (推計) forecast
2013年 (予想)
half of the year and the market will then Brent
ブレント: 111 112 108
Excess inventories of WTI in the U.S.
334 301 300 60 are expected to be cut shrinking the
200 be expected to soften. So, looking at WTI
WTI: 95 94 92
the entire year there should be little 50 price differential with Brent. Geopolitical
2011年1月
Jan. 2011 2012年1月
Jan. 2012 2013年1月
Jan. 2013
overall change in prices. Jan. 2011
2011年1月 Jan. 2012
2012年1月 Jan. 2013
2013年1月 risks will still remain a factor in price
volatility.
Copper From excess supply constraints to a slight rise in 1st half of year Corn Recovery in yields leads to increased production, lower prices
Since many development projects have Currently inventories are low and the
LME銅(ドル/トン)
LME Copper ($/ton) CBOT Corn (cent/bushel)
CBOTコーン(セント/ブッシェル) price range high, but from the next
been postponed due to sluggish global
10,000 demand and an economic recovery in 850 fiscal year, acreage under cultivation
China is expected, prices will likely rise should increase and yields recover, so
9,500 800 prices should begin to fall in February
forecast
予測 in the first half of the year
forecast and March. Weather factors can easily
9,000 In the 2nd half though, the pace of the 750 予測 influence prices though, so it is
recovery in global demand will not be possible they could rise just before
8,500 700
able keep up with the increase in new summer. Once crop conditions are
8,000 supply. So there will likely be a 650 known and fears of low inventories
worsening of the excess supply gone prices will drop.
7,500
situation in 2014 putting downward 600 U.S. ethanol demand has leveled off,
7,000 pressure on prices. However, this 550
but with lower corn prices demand for
average annual price
【年間平均値】 average annual price
【年間平均値】 corn used in feed is likely rise.
2011年 estimate
2012年 (推計) forecast
2013年 (予想) downward pressure may have limits as 2011年 estimate
2012年 (推計) forecast
2013年 (予想)
6,500 500
8,813 7,960 7,950 China builds up its inventories in 680 700 670
6,000 anticipation of potential future demand. 450
Jan. 2011
2011年1月 Jan. 2012
2012年1月 Jan. 2013
2013年1月 Jan. 2011
2011年1月 Jan. 2012
2012年1月 2013年1月
Jan. 2013

Marubeni Research Institute 17


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Note:
● All information and viewpoints contained in this material are the work of the Marubeni Research Institute based on data available at
the time of release. The Marubeni Research Institute is not responsible for any subsequent changes or notification of changes in the
information and/or positions taken in this report.
● The data used in this report is basically public information and as such the Marubeni Research Institute cannot vouch for either the
accuracy or thoroughness of such information. Any conclusions made or action taken based on the contents of this report is strictly up
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Marubeni Research Institute 18

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