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EXPECTATIONS
Relative Value
Price/Cash Flow
Price/Book Value
Price/Sales
Other Ratios
Profitability Ratios:
ROE
ROA
Operating
Financial
Current
Debt to
versus
3
Cash Flow
Operating Income
Operations
versus
Cash Flow
versus
EBIT
EBITDA
Cash
(1+%)1
Cash
(1+%)2
Cash +
(1+%)3
Cash
(1+%)4
(1+
y3
y4
y5
+5
5
+5
5
+5
%)5
y1
Cash Flow= +5
Discount
5
5___
@ 5%
(1+.05)1
(1.05)
y2
+5
5
(1+.05)2
(1.1025)
(1+.05)3
(1.1576)
PV of Cash Flow:
6
(1+.05)4 (1+.05)5
(1.2155) (1.276)
@ 5% = +4.762 +
4.535 +
4.319
PV = 21.648
4.114
+ 3.918
CAGR
42,550
_______
-3.687%
+16.939%
+8.60%
+0.7291%
2010 F
F 42,550
As instructed above, You needed to show both CAGR (short formula) and Geometric Mean
for Revenue (5.36%), You then need to calculate % of Net Earnings/Revenue for each of the
years and calculate the Arithmetic Average of the Net Earnings Margin (7.87%)
11
S & P Close*
1,111.92
1,058.20
1,050.71
995.97
1,008.01
990.31
974.5
963.59
916.92
848.18
841.15
855.7
Current-Previous
Previous
S & P Returns
(The Market)
0.05077
0.00713
0.05496
-0.0119
0.01787
0.01622
0.01132
0.0509
0.08104
0.00836
-0.017
SUM = 0.2697
& ARITHMETIC AVG # of Observations
0.2697 11 = 0.0245 = 2.45% = Avg Expected Return
12
COST OF CAPITAL:
WACC=
(Expectedcompany return)
+
Current Market Value of Debt x
Debt x 1-Tx)
Total Market Value of Company
Equity Market Value + Current Market Value of Debt
Market Capitalization
13
14
(Expected
15
mkt return
Enterprise Value:
Market Capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred
shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents.
If EHPR
Required Return
INTRINSIC Value : V The actual value of a company or an
asset based on an underlying perception of its true value
including all aspects of the business.
V0 =
If
V0
(1 + CAPM)
is less than the Current Market = SELL
(BKM pg590)
INTRINSIC
Price
Dividend
Price
Div
in one year
in one year
year 2
year 2
V0
P2
Today
k)
Div1
P1
( 1 + k)
V1
In Year
18
Div2
( 1 +
V0 = D0(1+g)
(1+k)
V0
Todays
Intrinsic
Value
+ D0(1+g)2
(1+k) 2
Or
= D0(1+g) =
(kg)
P0
+ D0(1+g)3 + ..
(1+k) 3
D1
(kg)
+ Capital Gains
D1 + P 1 P 0
P0
P0
= D1 + g
P0
=
Expected Dividend Next Period D1
Required or Expected Rate of Return k Expected
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CAPM
Riskfree )
The Required Rate of Return an investor can expect to earn given its RISK as
measured
By eta;
The Required Rate of Return of any investment with Equivalent Risk
Equilibrium (Correct Market Price) & Fair Pricing (Fair Return commensurate
with Risk)
EXPECTED RISK = k = CAPM = REQUIRED Return
MARKET CAPITALIZATION
Expected Holding Period Return
Period
EHPR
Current Mkt Price]
Exp Div1
[ Exp P1
<
k , sell
Net Income-Dividends
Net Income
Net Income
Shareholder Equity
= Return on Equity
ROE
x plowback
x
plowback
21
g = Reinvested Earnings
ROE x b
Book Value
Reinvested Earnings x
Net Income =
Net Income
Book Value
Shareholder Equity
Shareholder Equity
Price Today
Dividend End 1 yr
P0
=
D1____
(k
- g)
reinvestment
Expected
growth
or Required Return
g
P0
Exp Earnings
D 1 = E1
x
plowback
(1 - b)
ROE x b
E1 x (1 - b)
( k - ROE x b )
g
Price today
Expected EPS
(BKM pg 605)
k exp return
return
Price Today
1+ Present Value
EPS/k exp
(pg 604
BKM Investments)
P0
E1 x (1 - b)
( k - ROE x b )
P0 =
(1 - b)
E1
( k - ROE x b )
opportunities for
g
= 1 - Plowback_____________ =
k exp return ROE x plowback
Div Payout
k exp ret g
expected growth
If ROE is less than k expected/required return, investors prefer the company
payout more dividends, rather than reinvest in an inadequate return,
As ROE is lower than k req exp return, the value falls as plowback
(reinvestment) increases.
Conversely, as ROE exceeds k req exp return, the firm is more attractive and
value increases.
22
E1
NO Reinvestment, NO Growth
However, as Reinvestment Grows PVGO becomes
paid out
more
(BKM pg 604)
DDM
Price0 = Div1
(k g )
Price Today
Where Div = Earnings, NO Reinvestment
Div1 = E1 (1-b) where b is zero, Thus, Div1 = E1
(BKM pg 598)
EHP Return
Exp ret % = Exp (Div in 1 yr) + [ Exp price in 1yr - Price Today]
Price Today
Exp Div Yield in One Yr Div1 + Exp % Price Appreciation [Exp Price in 1 yr
Price today]
Price today
Price today
Expected Holding Period Return
versus
25
( 1 + k)1
( 1 + k)2
( 1 + k)3
The DDM includes Capital Gains by assuming the price at which you sell in
the future is dependent upon the dividend forecast going forward at that time
of future sale.
(1 + k) 2
D1 = Constant Growth
k-g
= cost of equity
CAPM
Growth Rate)
RR= % of Retained Earnings (pg 348) Plowback = (1-Div Payout)
NOTE: Constant Growth DDM is only valid when k (expected required return)
is greater than g (dividend growth rate), if g (dividend growth rate) is greater
than k (expected
required return) then this condition is unsustainable; substitute the MultiStage DDM model.
Thus, it is implied that with a constant growth of dividends, the rate of Stock
Price appreciation with equal the constant growth rate g .
26
(BKM pg 612)
Discounted at WACC
Less Mkt Value of Debt
= Calculated Value of Firm
Or for Free Cash Flow Equity
FCFFirm
- %Interest Exp x (1 Tax rate)
+ Inc in Net Debt
27
Free Cash Flow Firm (FCFF) versus Free Cash Flow Equity
(FCFE)
Cash Flow available to all providers of Capital
Cash Flow available to suppliers of capital after ALL
Operating Expenses (including taxes) have been paid and
Operating Investments have been made.
From Net Income available to Shareholders
PLUS Net NON Cash Charges
PLUS Interest Expense x (1-tax rate)
LESS Investment in Fixed Capital
LESS Investment in Working Capital
(Working Capital=Current Assets-Current Liabilities)
Free Cash Flow to the Firm From Cash Flow Operations =
CASH Flow Operations
PLUS Interest Expense x (1-tax rate)
LESS Investment in Fixed Capital
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FCFF = CFO
+ [Int x (1-tax rate)]
FCInv
Interest (After Tax) is added back to NI
because it is a Cash Flow that has been
Generated and Paid to Contributors of
Capital.
Thus, this cash should be part of what we are
defining as Free Cash Flow Firm
Where:
CFO = Cash Flow from Operations
Int = Interest Expense
FCInv = Fixed Capital Investment (total
capital expenditures)
Capital Investment is generally defined as the
Capital needed to sustain growth rates and
generally is defined to cover PPE (Plant
Property & Equipment). However, sometimes
because of the difficulty in identifying just
these Capital Expenditures, all Capital
Expenditures including Acquisitions are
included.
29
Where:
NI = Net Income
NCC = Non-cash Charges (depreciation and
amortization)
Int = Interest Expense
FCInv = Fixed Capital Investment (total capital
expenditures)
WCInv = Working Capital Investments
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE), the cash
available to stockholders can be derived from
FCFF. FCFE equals FCFF minus the after-tax
interest plus any cash from taking on debt (Net
Borrowing). The formula equals:
FCFEquity = FCFFirm
- [Int x (1-tax rate)]
+ Net Borrowing
31