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Blast targets opposition red shirt rally Some 30 people have been injured by an explosion at a rally by the opposition in Bangkok. The origin of the blast remains unclear, though some reports speak of a grenade attack. The leader of the opposition, Mr. Suthep was quite close to the blast but is uninjured.
The main winter tourist areas have so far been largely unaffected. Travellers here should stay updated at this point, and may wish to enquire their travel agent regarding contingency planning in place, if any. If you are dependent on special medicine or similar (e.g. insulin or anti-histamine), make sure you bring sufficient stock in case your stay becomes prolonged.
The conflict is also a zero-sum game, where winner takes all. There has been no room for compromise at any point, and it is hard to see how one could be made. Weak institutions of state and society act as permissive causes here too, and the conflict has weakened them further. It is important to realize that, while Thaksins supporters will likely win any election (they have the numbers), and while this certainly bestows a significant degree of democratic legitimacy, Thailand lacks the societal infrastructure necessary and conducive to a functioning democracy. Facing the Thaksin supporters are the supporters of the old system, who certainly are not democrats themselves, and who have traditionally relied on the army as ultima ratio regum if their privileges came under threat. Which brings us to a key issue: Does the army still support the old guard unconditionally? This seems less than clear. While upper echelons of the officer corps certainly do, they are, by nature, part if the system themselves. On the other hand it is believed that many of the ordinary soldiers and police are Thaksin supporters (we see here how the cleavage between rulers and ruled is mirrored also in the army itself). So perhaps the real issue becomes whether middle-ranking officers, ever the source of gamechanging coups, also support Thaksin or not.
SCENARIO MODELS
Making predictions is ever a difficult game. For purposes of risk management it makes better sense to look at various outcomes, which all seem conceivable at this point. Note that things may pan out differently, and in particular that sudden events may have a gamechanging potential (e.g. the king dies). Note too that these scenarios are not all mutually exclusive. Some could follow others. 1. Negotiated settlement This seems unlikely. As said the crisis is a zero-sum game, and there is little room for compromise. Were Thailand to have democratic institutions and a strong civil society catering to many interests, it would certainly be an option. But that is not the case. We rate this as a low probability-scenario 2. Protests fizzle, government retains power The opposition is largely dependent on its own momentum, or the presence of an adversary. So far the government has played it smart by not offering much resistance on the streets of Bangkok. So could the opposition simply run out of steam, especially if elections are actually held on 5 February and subsequently recognized internationally? This seems a possibility if not probability. It could defuse the conflict in the short run, but would not solve it in the longer run. It seems the only thinkable scenario with a peaceful outcome for now. We rate this as a medium probability-scenario 3. The opposition or the government quits
Very unlikely. Both have a real powerbase, and both have much to loose by simply caving. This will not happen. We rate this as a very low probability-scenario 4. The government responds with force As said the government has so far, mostly, refrained from using force against the opposition demonstrators. Likely motivated by the wise consideration that it robs the opposition of an enemy they can fight in the street, but also probably because the government is unsure as to how the security forces would actually do if ordered to use force. However, as the elections approach and the conflict drags on, events could well force the governments hand, especially if critical infrastructure or key symbols of power become affected; or if the demonstrators would otherwise physically prevent elections taking place. Should the government use force, then the game changes; especially if casualty numbers are high, in which case a coup becomes more probable (see 5). We rate this as a medium-probability scenario, with risk rising as elections approach 5. Coup! The army steps in, topples the government and ends the impasse as it did in 2006. No doubt some high-ranking officers would already like to do this, even if the longer term perspectives of it are most unclear. The army knows it cannot rule and that a coup does not solve the issues at hand, but it may serve to prevent a worse outcome and restore order in the short run, while weakening the red shirts too both likely aims of the high command. A backlash in the shape of red shirts seems likely, including in Bangkok, and as short-ish burst of violence is likely here and possibly in the north and east. If the army can contain it, it should be short, if not, we could see option 6. instead. We rate this as a medium or high probability scenario 6. Counter-coup or mutiny The worst outcome we can see at this point, short of a civil war like scenario which is too far away to contemplate for now. This scenario sees reds shirt supporters in the army, likely middleranking officers, making their own coup, or counter-coup/mutiny in case of a coup. This could see army and security forces fighting each other in the streets, and violence escalate well beyond anything seen so far. It could also well spread beyond Bangkok, potentially to anywhere in the country. We rate this as a low-medium probability scenario, conditional upon a regular coup.