Chapter Twelve

Sampling: Final and Initial Sample Size Determination

12-2

Chapter Outline
1) Overview 2) Definition and S!m"ol #) The Sampling Di tri"ution $) Stati ti%al &pproa%he to Determining Sample Size ') Confiden%e Interval i( Sample Size Determination: )ean ii( Sample Size Determination: *roportion +) )ultiple Chara%teri ti% and *arameter ,) Other *ro"a"ilit! Sampling Te%hni-ue

12-#

Chapter Outline
.) &d/u ting the Stati ti%all! Determined Sample Size 0) 1on-re pon e I i( ue in Sampling Improving the 2e pon e 2ate

ii( &d/u ting for 1on-re pon e 13) International )ar4eting 2e ear%h 11) 5thi% in )ar4eting 2e ear%h 12) Internet and Computer &ppli%ation 1#) Fo%u On 6ur4e 1$) Summar! 1') 7e! Term and Con%ept

12-$

Definition and S!m"ol

Parameter: & parameter i a ummar! de %ription of a fi8ed %hara%teri ti% or mea ure of the target population( & parameter denote the true value whi%h would "e o"tained if a %en u rather than a ample wa underta4en( Statistic: & statistic i a ummar! de %ription of a %hara%teri ti% or mea ure of the ample( The ample tati ti% i u ed a an e timate of the population parameter( Finite Population Correction: The finite population correction 9fp%) i a %orre%tion for overe timation of the varian%e of a population parameter: e(g(: a mean or proportion: when the ample ize i 13; or more of the population ize(

12-'

Definition and S!m"ol

Precision level: <hen e timating a population parameter "! u ing a ample tati ti%: the precision level i the de ired ize of the e timating interval( Thi i the ma8imum permi i"le differen%e "etween the ample tati ti% and the population parameter( Confidence interval: The confidence interval i the range into whi%h the true population parameter will fall: a uming a given level of %onfiden%e( Confidence level: The confidence level i the pro"a"ilit! that a %onfiden%e interval will in%lude the population parameter(

S!m"ol for *opulation and Sample =aria"le

Ta"le 12(1

12-+

V a r ia b le
_

M e a n P r o p o r t io n

_ _

The Confiden%e Interval &pproa%h

12-,

Cal%ulation of the %onfiden%e interval involve determining a di tan%e "elow 9 X ) Land a"ove 9 )Xthe population mean 9 ): X whi%h U %ontain a pe%ified area of the normal %urve 9Figure 12(1)( The z value %orre ponding to and ma! "e %al%ulated a > >
z L = - X L x

> where >

> zU zL and the upper value of > >

-z and X? U - zU = x

? @z( Therefore: the lower value of

X L = - z x

X U = + z x

12-.

The Confiden%e Interval &pproa%h

> 1ote that i e timated "!X ( The %onfiden%e interval i given "!

x > <e %an now et a 0'; %onfiden%e interval around the ample mean of A1.2( & a fir t tep: we %ompute the tandard error of the mean:
From Ta"le 2 in the &ppendi8 of Stati ti%al Ta"le : it %an "e een that the %entral 0'; of the normal di tri"ution lie within @ 1(0+ z value ( The 0'; %onfiden%e interval i given "! > @ 1(0+ ? @x 1(0+9#(1.) X 1.2(33 ? 1.2(33 @ +(2# > Thu the 0'; %onfiden%e interval range from A1,'(,, to A1..(2#( The pro"a"ilit! of finding the true population mean to "e within A1,'(,, and A1..(2# i 0';(
x = = 55/ 300 = 3.18 n

X z

12-0

0'; Confiden%e Interval

Figure 12(1

'()* +

'()* +

% X$

% X

% X&

Sample Size Determination for )ean and *roportion

Ta"le 12(2
Steps 1. Specify the level of precision 2. Specify the confidence level (CL) !. Deter"ine the # v$l%e $ssoci$ted &ith CL (. Deter"ine the st$nd$rd devi$tion of the pop%l$tion 5. Deter"ine the s$"ple si#e %sin+ the for"%l$ for the st$nd$rd error '. -f the s$"ple si#e represents 10 of the pop%l$tion. $pply the fi nite pop%l$tion correction 1. -f necess$ry. reesti"$te the confidence interv$l 2y e"ployin+ s to esti"$te 4. -f precision is specified in rel$tive r$ther th$n $2sol%te ter"s. deter"ine the s$ "ple si#e 2y s%2stit%tin+ for D. Means D = $5.00 CL = 95 # v$l%e is 1.9' )sti"$te * = 55 n = 2#2,D2 = ('5 nc = n/,(/0n -1) Proportions D = p - = 0.05 CL = 95 # v$l%e is 1.9' )sti"$te * = 0.'( n = (1-) #2,D2 = !55 nc = n/,(/0n -1)

12-13

= #s3
D = 56 n = C 2#2,52

= p #sp D = 5 n = # 2(1-),(52)

Sample Size for 5 timating )ultiple *arameter

Ta"le 12(#

12-11

Confidence le el

&d/u ting the Stati ti%all! Determined Sample Size

12-12

,ncidence rate refer to the rate of o%%urren%e or the per%entage: of per on eligi"le to parti%ipate in the tud!( In general: if there are % -ualif!ing fa%tor with an in%iden%e of B-: B2: B.: (((BC:ea%h e8pre ed a a proportion: > In%iden%e rate > Initial ample ize ? Final ample ize In%iden%e rate 8 Completion rate ( ? B- 8 B2 8 B.((((8 BC

12-1#

Improving 2e pon e 2ate

Fig( 12(2
Methods of ,mprovin/ 0esponse 0ates

0educin/ 0efusals

0educin/ Not"at"7omes

Prior Motivatin/ ,ncentives 1uestionnaire Follo4"&p 5ther 2esi/n Facilitators Notification 0espondents and 3dministratio n

Callbac6s

12-1$

&r"itron 2e pond to Cow 2e pon e 2ate

7r2itron. $ "$8or "$r9etin+ rese$rch s%pplier. &$s tryin+ to i"prove response r$tes in order to +et "ore "e$nin+f%l res%lts fro" its s%rveys. 7r2itron cre$ted $ speci$l cross-f%nction$l te$" of e"ployees to &or9 on the response r$te pro2le". :heir "ethod &$s n$"ed the ;2re$9thro%+h "ethod.< $nd the &hole 7r2itron syste" concernin+ the response r$tes &$s p%t in =%estion $nd ch$n+ed. :he te$" s%++ested si3 "$8or str$te+ies for i"provin+ response r$tes*
1. 2. !. (. 5. '. >$3i"i#e the effectiveness of pl$ce"ent,follo&-%p c$lls. >$9e "$teri$ls "ore $ppe$lin+ $nd e$sy to co"plete. -ncre$se 7r2itron n$"e $&$reness. -"prove s%rvey p$rticip$nt re&$rds. ?pti"i#e the $rriv$l of respondent "$teri$ls. -ncre$se %s$2ility of ret%rned di$ries.

)i+hty initi$tives &ere l$%nched to i"ple"ent these si3 str$te+ies. 7s $ res%lt. response r$tes i"proved si+nific$ntly. @o&ever. in spite of those enco%r$+in+ res%lts. people $t 7r2itron re"$in very c$%tio%s. :hey 9no& th$t they $re not done yet $nd th$t it is $n everyd$y fi+ht to 9eep those response r$tes hi+h.

12-1'

&d/u ting for 1onre pon e

Subsamplin/ of Nonrespondents D the re ear%her %onta%t a u" ample of the nonre pondent : u uall! "! mean of telephone or per onal interview ( In replacement: the nonre pondent in the %urrent urve! are repla%ed with nonre pondent from an earlier: imilar urve!( The re ear%her attempt to %onta%t the e nonre pondent from the earlier urve! and admini ter the %urrent urve! -ue tionnaire to them: po i"l! "! offering a uita"le in%entive(

12-1+

&d/u ting for 1onre pon e

In substitution: the re ear%her u" titute for nonre pondent other element from the ampling frame that are e8pe%ted to re pond( The ampling frame i divided into u"group that are internall! homogeneou in term of re pondent %hara%teri ti% "ut heterogeneou in term of re pon e rate ( The e u"group are then u ed to identif! u" titute who are imilar to parti%ular nonre pondent "ut di imilar to re pondent alread! in the ample( Sub8ective 9stimates D <hen it i no longer fea i"le to in%rea e the re pon e rate "! u" ampling: repla%ement: or u" titution: it ma! "e po i"le to arrive at u"/e%tive e timate of the nature and effe%t of nonre pon e "ia ( Thi involve evaluating the li4el! effe%t of nonre pon e "a ed on e8perien%e and availa"le information( :rend anal;sis i an attempt to di %ern a trend "etween earl! and late re pondent ( Thi trend i pro/e%ted to nonre pondent to e timate where the! tand on the %hara%teri ti% of intere t(

E e of Trend &nal! i in &d/u ting for 1on-re pon e

Ta"le 12($
Percentage .esponse Airst >$ilin+ Second >$ilin+ :hird >$ilin+ /onresponse 5otal 12 14 1! (51) %,, 2 erage Dollar Expenditure (12 !25 211 (2!0) 01" Percentage of Pre ious 3a e4s .esponse BB 19 45 91

12-1,

12-1.

&d/u ting for 1onre pon e

<ei/htin/ attempt to a%%ount for nonre pon e "! a igning differential weight to the data depending on the re pon e rate ( For e8ample: in a urve! the re pon e rate were .': ,3: and $3;: re pe%tivel!: for the high-: medium-: and low in%ome group ( In anal!zing the data: the e u"group are a igned weight inver el! proportional to their re pon e rate ( That i : the weight a igned would "e 9133F.'): 9133F,3): and 9133F$3): re pe%tivel!: for the high-: medium-: and low-in%ome group ( ,mputation involve imputing: or a igning: the %hara%teri ti% of intere t to the nonre pondent "a ed on the imilarit! of the varia"le availa"le for "oth nonre pondent and re pondent ( For e8ample: a re pondent who doe not report "rand u age ma! "e imputed the u age of a re pondent with imilar demographi% %hara%teri ti% (

Finding *ro"a"ilitie Corre ponding to 7nown =alue

Area between and + 1 = 0.3431 Area between and + 2 = 0.4772 Area between and + 3 = 0.4986

12-10

Figure 12&(1

&rea i 3(#$1#

-3 35 -3

-2 40 -2

-1 45 -1

50 0

+1 55 +1

+2 60 +2

+3G

S%ale

65 (=50, =5) +3 Z Scale

Finding *ro"a"ilitie Corre ponding to 7nown =alue

&rea i 3($'3
Figure 12&(2

12-23

&rea i 3('33

&rea i 3(3'3 H -G '3 3 H S%ale G S%ale

Finding =alue Corre ponding to 7nown *ro"a"ilitie : Confiden%e Interval

&rea i 3($,'
Fig( 12&(#

12-21

&rea i 3($,'

&rea i 3(32' H -G '3 3 -G

&rea i 3(32' H S%ale G S%ale

Opinion Place 6a e It Opinion on 1333 2e pondent

12-22

)ar4eting re ear%h firm are now turning to the <e" to %ondu%t online re ear%h( 2e%entl!: four leading mar4et re ear%h %ompanie 9&SI )ar4et 2e ear%h: Cu tom 2e ear%h: In%(: )F&F2FC 2e ear%h: and 2oper Sear%h <orldwide) partnered with Digital )ar4eting Servi%e 9D)S): Dalla : to %ondu%t %u tom re ear%h on &OC( D)S and &OC will %ondu%t online urve! on &OCI Opinion Place: with an average "a e of 1:333 re pondent "! urve!( Thi ample ize wa determined "a ed on tati ti%al %on ideration a well a ample ize u ed in imilar re ear%h %ondu%ted "! traditional method ( &OC will give reward point 9that %an "e traded in for prize ) to re pondent ( E er will not have to u"mit their e-mail addre e ( The urve! will help mea ure re pon e to adverti er I online %ampaign ( The primar! o"/e%tive of thi re ear%h i to gauge %on umer I attitude and other u"/e%tive information that %an help media "u!er plan their %ampaign (

Opinion Place 6a e It Opinion on 1333 2e pondent

12-2#

&nother advantage of online urve! i that !ou are ure to rea%h !our target 9 ample %ontrol) and that the! are -ui%4er to turn around than traditional urve! li4e mall inter%ept or in-home interview ( The! al o are %heaper 9D)S %harge A23:333 for an online urve!: while it %o t "etween A#3:333 and A$3:333 to %ondu%t a mall-inter%ept urve! of 1:333 re pondent )(