ROADMAP

for Network Technologies and Services

Petteri Alahuhta, Marko Jurvansuu, Heikki Pentikinen

Technology Review 162/2004

ROADMAP
for Network Technologies and Services

Petteri Alahuhta Marko Jurvansuu Heikki Pentikinen VTT

Technology Review 162/2004 Helsinki 2004

Tekes your contact for Finnish technology Tekes, the National Technology Agency, is the main funding organisation for applied and industrial R&D in Finland. Funding is granted from the state budget. Tekes primary objective is to promote the competitiveness of Finnish industry and the service sector by technological means. Activities aim to diversify production structures, increase production and exports and create a foundation for employment and social well-being. Tekes finances applied and industrial R&D in Finland to the extent of about 400 million euros annually. The Tekes network in Finland and overseas offers excellent channels for cooperation with Finnish companies, universities and research institutes. Technology programmes part of the innovation chain The technology programmes are an essential part of the Finnish innovation system. These programmes have proved to be an effective form of cooperation and networking for companies and the research sector for developing innovative products and processes. Technology programmes promote development in specific sectors of technology or industry, and the results of the research work are passed on to business systematically. The programmes also serve as excellent frameworks for international R&D cooperation. In 2004, 25 extensive technology programmes are under way.

Copyright Tekes 2004. All rights reserved. This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, the copyright for which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materials appearing in publications may not be used for commercial purposes. The contents of publications are the opinion of the writers and do not represent the official position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility for any possible damages arising from their use. The original source must be mentioned when quoting from the materials.

ISSN 1239-758X ISBN 952-457-176-5

Abstract
This report provides an analysis of the major roadmaps in the network and service domain for the timeframe 2007-2012. The work was funded by the NETS programme of the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes). The main focus is on technology enablers to consider future broadband networks (wireless and fixed), new services and applications, the evolution of service technologies and user requirements for the services. The roadmaps summarized here were published by the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF) , the mobile IT Forum (mITF), the Eureka cluster projects ITEA (Information technology for European advancements) and CELTIC (Co-operation for a European sustained Leadership in Telecommunications), the Tekes NETS programme, the European Commission IST Programme, the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), and the Wireless World Research Initiative (WWRI). As a result, we present an analysis of the most important visions and trends, and an analysis of network convergence, all-IP, the ubiquitous environment, digital multimedia communication, wireless technologies and business models. The roadmap analysis was evaluated and commented on by more than 40 Finnish industry and research experts in this field. Here we present one roadmap that collates the main aspects of the evaluated roadmaps. We also present 9 critical or causal paths that describe the development of the services and networks. These critical paths have not previously been published.

Preface
In 2004 the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes) funded a roadmap study for services and networks under the NETS - "Networks of the Future" programme. The work was carried out by VTT in co-operation with the NETS thematic groups 1b) Service technology evolution in co-operation with the thematic group 3a) New services and applications and supervised by Tekes. Long-term roadmaps are very challenging to create. The markets, accidents, user habits, trends, etc., guide our future in hand-in-hand with the development of technology. The unpredictable nature of the development in this field hinders the reliability of predictions for the short-term time scale, i.e. 2004-2007, not to mention the long-term estimations for the timeframe of 2007-2012 - the timeframe of this study. Thus roadmaps must be treated with caution, and should be seen as a vision to approach rather than something that will surely happen in detail. The vision presented here gives the view of the major players and experts throughout the world that have contributed to the roadmaps examined in this work. It must be pointed out that it is not only the markets and trends but also the vision adopted by the ICT (Information and Communication Technology) community that will guide the development of technology enablers for our future. Therefore, the presented vision is somewhat self-realising, since it is the vision presented by those entities that can actually influence it. Naturally, not all services or enablers will become the success that is envisioned in the roadmap, but it does show the future possibilities in the road ahead. Of course, the vision and the roadmap must be updated from time to time to see which direction the development is heading in. In this work we have gathered the main topics from the most essential roadmaps available that include networks and services domains. The analysis was evaluated by Finnish NETS programme thematic groups and by other top Finnish experts. The final analysis is, therefore, a mixture that consists of solid background from the existing roadmaps and fine-tuning of analysis using a large number of comments. We gratefully acknowledge following people who were interviewed: Risto Alander (Elisa), Olli Martikainen (ETLA), Sami Grnberg (TeliaSonera), Bjrn Melen (Ericsson), Lauri Haapanen (Incode), Timo Leppinen (Ficora), KariPekka Estola (Nokia), Raija Tervo-Pellikka (HUT) and Heikki Hmminen (HUT). We would also like to thank the thematic groups service technology evolution and new services and applications of the Tekes NETS programme for their contribution to the roadmap process. We gratefully acknowledge the work of Marko Palola (VTT) for his extensive contribution to the development of the critical paths. We would also like to thank Heikki Ailisto, Aarne Mmmel, Ville Typp, Jari Korva, Reijo Savola and Arto Laikari from VTT for their contributions to this report.

Contents
Abstract Preface 1 Introduction..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Challenges for roadmaps ....................................................................... 1 1.2 Maturity of technology .......................................................................... 2 1.3 Our approach to timescale estimations.................................................. 3 1.4 Process of the current roadmap ............................................................. 4 1.5 Content of this document....................................................................... 5 Sources for Roadmaps .................................................................................... 6 2.1 WWRF................................................................................................... 6 2.2 EUREKA............................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 ITEA.......................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 CELTIC..................................................................................... 7 2.3 mITF ...................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Other sources of information................................................................. 8 2.4.1 Funding entities......................................................................... 8 2.4.2 Standardisation bodies .............................................................. 9 2.4.3 Research institutes..................................................................... 9 2.4.4 Forums and alliances............................................................... 10 2.4.5 Commercial Research ............................................................. 10 2.4.6 Companies............................................................................... 10 2.5 Chosen roadmaps................................................................................. 10 Roadmap analysis for 2007-2012 ................................................................. 12 3.1 Analysis of visions .............................................................................. 12 3.2 Analysis of trends ................................................................................ 15 3.3 Analysis of services and technology enablers ..................................... 20 Critical paths in network and service technology evolution ......................... 24 4.1 Critical paths........................................................................................ 24 4.1.1 Commerce ............................................................................... 26 4.1.2 Business Models...................................................................... 27 4.1.3 Services ................................................................................... 29 4.1.4 Context awareness................................................................... 31 4.1.5 Content .................................................................................... 33 4.1.6 Digital security and digital identity......................................... 34 4.1.7 Mobile terminals ..................................................................... 36 4.1.8 Networks ................................................................................. 38

4.1.9 5

Radio technology .................................................................... 40

Discussion..................................................................................................... 41

Acknowledgements............................................................................................. 44 References........................................................................................................... 45 Appendices Appendix A. List of symbols Appendix B. Summary of Company and Organisation Interviews Appendix C. Summary of WWRF Book of Vision Appendix D. Summary of CELTIC Purple Book Appendix E. Summary of ITEA Roadmap Appendix F. Summary of mITF Flying Carpet Appendix G. Summary of Tekes NETS programme vision and roadmap Appendix H. Summary of AMI@LIFE Roadmap Appendix I. Summary of VTT Roadmaps Appendix J. Summary of WWRI Roadmap Appendix K. Services and technology enablers based on roadmaps

1 Introduction
There is always a need to predict the future. Companies, research organizations, standardization bodies, etc., need information on how the markets and technologies are developing in order to make the right strategic decisions.

1.1 Challenges for roadmaps

There are many aspects that need to be considered when creating roadmaps. The boundaries for the topic must be identified to keep the work in focus, the relevant things should be considered. The depth of examination depends on the resources provided for the work. It is important to state the timeframe for the roadmap at the very beginning, since the roadmaps for the short- and long-term timescale are different. Geographical location may influence the outcome, since the technical and market development may be very different - e.g. when comparing it globally or just in one country. The major challenge lies on the reliability of the time estimation in the roadmap. For example, what is the probability that a certain technology enabler or product will be available in the markets? Other important factor is when is a technology enabler mature enough to be placed on the roadmap? Should it be placed on the roadmap with the first prototypes or when there is a certain penetration of such technology in the markets? The maturity of a technology enabler can be described in a so-called S- or Hype curve, see Figure 1. In the roadmap process, one needs to be certain that the information gathered is as reliable and accurate as possible. For this purpose, the literature review must be thorough and other input for the roadmap should come from a large number of experts. If only a few expert comments are heard, there is a danger that the roadmap will mainly represent the opinions of these individuals. Thus it is better to broaden the contribution area. Of course, when gathering information, the editors need be critical of the information they receive. Finally, the roadmap should be presented in a clear and understandable way, with consideration of the audience the roadmap is made for. This is a very challenging task. Typically, there is huge amount of information that has to be condensed to text, graphs and bullet points. Information is lost in this process and it is challenging to find the most relevant information that is left for the final outcome.

1.2 Maturity of technology

Surprisingly the maturity and visibility of technology are not directly linked - e.g. more mature technology would get more visibility. As a matter of fact, the new emerging technologies tend to have very high visibility compared with the more mature technologies.

This can be visualised with the so-called-Hype cycle, see Figure 1. Figure 1 Technology Hype Cycle (source Gartner) One of the major difficulties in roadmap work is the selection of position on the Hype curve. For example, should one place the technology enabler on the roadmap if it is positioned in "Peak of Inflated Expectations" or in "Plateau of Productivity". This naturally depends on the purpose of the roadmap and on the audience it is made for. Small companies (SMEs) tend to be interested in those technologies that are mature and popular, because they have limited resources beyond everyday business. The products should be successful and exploitable from the beginning. The financial risk may be too large to "bet" on the technology that could or not be exploitable after some years, despite sophisticated evaluations of user needs. For large companies - e.g. operators, system integrators and manufacturers - the situation is different. They have better resources and their products usually need longer research and development than with SMEs.

Typically, roadmaps predictions are more optimistic the further in to the future they are targeted. For a long-term analysis, the undefined factor is the new emerging technologies that cannot be predicted - i.e. some new technology or trend may come up that we cannot know at this point. Therefore, in a long-term analysis we have to use the technologies that are now rising or at the top of the hype curve as a basic assumption of future technologies. It is good to bear in mind that a typical timescale for a certain technology to be really mature and make large profits is 5-10 years after its first launch. It is also good to realise that it is more realistic and sound to describe the functionalities rather than the exact technologies. Particularly as, with a timeframe of roughly 10 years ahead, there will be a large number of technologies that we cannot name or predict at this point. However, functionalities that are technology-independent can be described.

1.3 Our approach to timescale estimations

We have chosen an approach whereby we have tried to estimate the technology development by reviewing the most important roadmaps of services and networks. Some of the roadmaps only give a vague estimation of the timeframe for which certain technology is important; in general, they propose important research issues towards 2010. In some roadmaps there are more detailed classifications between the technologies and the timescales (e.g. between 2006 - 2008), but they do not consider the maturity (i.e. the place on the hype curve) of such techniques within this timeframe. Thus the background information from the roadmaps does not give insight to this challenge. Since we have no other source of information that could link maturity, technology and time, we have chosen to present our results as they are on the roadmaps. In general, the roadmaps tend to have a very optimistic view of the development speed; this is also shown in our analysis. In the timeframe of our study - 2007-2012 - we chose to present technologies and enablers in two categories, 2007 and 2012. We have placed in the 2007 category those technologies that are mainly found in the short term but also in the mid-term categories in the roadmaps. For the 2012 category we have chosen those technology enablers that are in the long-term categories and some of those enablers and functionalities that are placed in visions. We urge readers to comprehend our estimations for 2012 as possibilities, some of which could be materialised in 2012. We do not know how the world will look in 2012, but at least we can present some of the options that lay ahead.

1.4 Process of the current roadmap

This roadmap study is produced in close collaboration with the NETS research programme of the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes) [20] and its thematic group 1b) Service technology evolution in co-operation with 3a) New services and applications. The collaboration with the thematic groups has covered commenting, consultancy, reviews and brainstorming in workshops during the different phases of the roadmap process. The goal of the roadmap work was to define as accurate a roadmap as possible to cover the five-year period 2007-2012, which was set as the scope of the roadmap. The roadmap work started with the literature study, where up to ten existing and most relevant ICT roadmaps were examined. Those roadmaps were reviewed and are briefly refereed in this document (in the appendices). The roadmaps produced by WWRF, mITF, ITEA and CELTIC were found to be most relevant to this work and were therefore selected as major sources. To obtain early feedback on the drafted roadmap from the industrial and commercial sector, interviews with both individuals and companies representatives were arranged. The feedback was processed and used to adjust and correct the content of the roadmap analysis. The roadmap process was concluded in a workshop with the representatives of the thematic groups, a presentation to the NETS programme steering group and publication of final version of the roadmap review.

Literature reviews

Interviews

Workshops

Roadmap

Figure 2 Roadmap process

1.5 Content of this document

After the introduction, Chapter two presents the main sources (forums, companies, standardisation, research and funding bodies) for the reviewed roadmap documents, followed by an evaluation of their impact on the development of the ICT field. In Chapter three the scenarios, visions and development of the technology enablers extracted from the roadmaps is summarized. The analysis has been done by separating topics corresponding to the situation in 2007 and 2012. Roadmaps do not usually very clearly specify the exact years when a certain functionality or enabler is realised, so authors use their own judgement to classify them to a different time. In Chapter four the evaluation of the roadmap is continued by identifying the critical paths based on the roadmaps. In Chapter fivethe roadmap work is concluded with a discussion of the important findings during the evolution, and some general suggestions are proposed. In the appendices the main roadmaps analysed in this work are summarised, and their backgrounds and significance are discussed. This is followed by summaries of the chosen roadmaps, taking into account the main trends, requirements and visions they include. In appendices, we also summarise the company interviews and comments that we received.

2 Sources for Roadmaps

In this chapter some of the main sources (forums, companies, standardisation, research and funding bodies) for roadmap documents are presented together with an evaluation of their impact on the development of the ICT field. The most relevant sources for this work are presented first, followed by shorter descriptions of other sources not included in this work.

2.1 WWRF
The Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF) [1] is one of the most important industrial and academic research platforms in the world. Alcatel, Ericsson, Motorola, Nokia, and Siemens founded the "Wireless World Research Forum" in early 2001 and it has grown to a large society with 153 members consisting of manufacturers, operators, R&D centres, academia and one regulator from 4 continents. It has the critical mass to have a global influence on the development of the future wireless world. The objective of the forum is to formulate visions on strategic future research directions in the wireless field, involving industry and academia, and to generate, identify and promote research areas and technical trends for mobile and wireless system technologies. The timeframe of reflection is in the range of 10 15 years from now. WWRF organises meetings (roughly 3 times a year), provides a publication forum, collects actors and research topics for research projects, and develops a vision of the wireless world in working groups (6), which produce the material for a public deliverable called Book of Visions. As an example of the contributions to European research programs, the Wireless-WorldInitiative (WWI) (launched from WWRF) submitted very large-scale Integrated Project proposals (IP) to the IST 6th call in 2003 supporting the WWRF vision. The main IP projects under the WWI that were funded by the commission at the beginning of 2004 were Ambient Networks [2], E2R [3] and Winner [4].

2.2 EUREKA
EUREKA [7] is a pan-European network for market-oriented, industrial R&D supporting the competitiveness of European companies through international collaboration in creating links and networks of innovation. There are a number of EUREKA clusters - e.g. ITEA, CELTIC, PIDEA and MEDEA+ - each providing a platform for European co-operation between companies and research institutions. Roughly, 170 new projects are started under EUREKA every year.

2.2.1

ITEA

The ITEA (Information Technology for European Advancement) programme [18](! 2023) was initiated in February 1998 as an eight-year EUREKA programme. ITEA was set up to stimulate and support projects that will give European industry a leading edge in softwareintensive systems. ITEA works closely with other EUREKA projects and the Framework Programmes of the European Commission. The projects are financially supported by all 33 countries in the EUREKA framework. An industrial lead vision of ITEA can be stated as "Europe to become a leader in softwareintensive systems on embedded and distributed platforms". This is combined with "Middleware infrastructure of dynamically configurable distributed IT". The stakeholders are individuals who have local access to multimedia data processed by software and embedded in hardware. The resources that are accessed are distributed over a dynamic infrastructure. An underlying principle is the assumption that software is a factor of convergence for all kinds of industries. ITEA published its first Technology Roadmap of Software-Intensive Systems in March 2001. The second edition has been produced during the spring of 2004. The timeframe of the second edition of the ITEA Technology Roadmap is divided into three clusters: short-term is associated with the period 2004-06, medium-term with 2007-09 and long-term with 2010 and onwards.

2.2.2

CELTIC

Co-operation for a European sustained Leadership in Telecommunications, CELTIC [6], is a new major R&D programme under EUREKA, similar to ITEA and MEDEA+. CELTIC was officially approved as a EUREKA cluster project on 23 October 2003. It is the first European R&D programme fully dedicated to end-to-end telecommunications systems. Celtic was founded by Alcatel, British Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, France Telecom, Italtel, Nokia, Siemens, Telecom Italia, Telefonica and Thomson. The CELTIC programme will encompass pre-development and experimentation of broadband and multimedia services, applications and equipment, including their control, operation, administration and management. A main feature of CELTIC lies in the fact that it will be a full system and services-centred network approach. CELTIC aims at developing, integrating and testing full systems and services for broadband in a full-scale network environment.

CELTIC has published a roadmap called Purple Book, which defines the "priorities and outlines a roadmap for the evolution of communication technologies for Europe." Purple Book is compiled from contributions from a large number of technical experts, from both the industry and academia. The timeframe of the CELTIC projects is in the short to medium-term R&D aspects, filling the gap between telecommunication companies six to twelve months and IST medium long-term projects.

2.3 mITF
The objectives of the 4th Generation (4G) Mobile Communications Committee (Japan) are to clarify the system configuration and applications of the 4th generation mobile communication systems and to propose concrete near-term activities envisioning its commercial introduction around 2010, so as to lay the ground work for the R&D and standardisation activities by the industry and academia. The Mobile IT Forum (mITF) [19] was established in June 2001, consisting of over 130 Japanese partners such as companies (NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, Fujitsu, Hitachi,...) and universities. The Mobile IT Forum was established with a goal of facilitating the R&D and standardization activities from a comprehensive perspective, so as to contribute to transforming Japan into a leading Mobile IT nation. In the course of this work mITF published a second revision of its vision report "Flying Carpet" in April 2004.

2.4 Other sources of information

There are naturally many other important forums, companies, standardisation, research and funding bodies who create their own roadmaps and other documents (whitepapers, recommendations, statistical information, and forecasts) that could be useful for roadmapping.

2.4.1

Funding entities

IST, European Union The main source for roadmap projects in Europe is IST, which initiated some 25 strategic R&D roadmap projects in 2002 as preparation for the IST 6th Framework programme aiming at "New Methods of Work and Electronic Commerce" [8]. Some examples of relevant

projects for ICT roadmapping were MBnet (A Network of Excellence in mBusiness Applications and Services) [9], IDEAS (Interoperability Developments for Enterprise Application and Software Roadmaps) [10] and ROADCON (Strategic Roadmap towards Knowledge-Driven Construction) [11]. One important IST project was the Wireless World Research Initiative (WWRI) [16] focusing on the emergent new wireless technologies and systems beyond 3G. They suggested three different scenarios regarding the wireless world telecoms market within the 5 to 10 years timeframe. IST also provides ISTAG [15] reports. ISTAG has been set up to advise the Commission on the overall strategy to be followed in carrying out the IST thematic priority and related activities of research, as well as the orientations in respect of the European Research Area. Tekes, Finland The Finnish Public Authority Tekes constructs and publishes vision and roadmap publications for the guidance of the funding programmes. One of the most relevant programmes for the network and service domain is the NETS Networks of the Future programme. This funds projects that focus on future wireless systems, broadband packet network technologies and new application/services concepts relating to these networks. The NETS programme has published a vision paper [14] for the guidance of the programme. There are also several thematic groups under the programme that have participated in vision and roadmap work for the NETS programme: Wireless systems (1a Network co-operation, 1b Service technology evolution, 1c Radio-channel and air-interface technologies), Broadband packet networks, Services and Applications (3a New applications and concepts, 3b Regulation and information society development, 3c Agent technology) and Internationalisation.

2.4.2

Standardisation bodies

Standardisation bodies are important sources for roadmapping since the standards that are being prepared and developed today are the most potential enablers for future services. Some of the relevant standardisation bodies and forums that have a large impact on standardisation include Institute of Electrical and electronic engineers (IEEE) [21], International Telecommunication Union (ITU) [23], European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) [24], 3rd Generation partnership Project (3GPP) [25] and 3rd Generation partnership Project 2(3GPP2) [26].

2.4.3

Research institutes

In addition to short-term research, research organisations like Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft [27], Telematica Instituut [28], National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) [29], VTT

[30] and The Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) [31] are usually heavily involved with long-term research topics.

2.4.4

Forums and alliances

Companies, research establishments and public entities are networked in forums and alliances in order to improve the visibility of a certain technology or create interoperability among different solutions. They provide e.g. white papers and specifications for common practices. Examples of such forums are the UMTS Forum [33], World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) [35], Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) [22], Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) [36], IPv6 Forum [32], OFDM forum [34].

2.4.5

Commercial Research

There are several commercial research sources that provide consultancy and forecast the telecommunication industry. The price of their reports and forecasts typically varies from 500$ to 10,000$, corresponding the depth of the analysis. Gartner, Inc. is perhaps the most well known research and advisory firm that helps more than 10,000 clients leverage technology to achieve business success. Gartner's businesses consist of Research, Consulting, Measurement, Events and Executive Programmes. Gartner includes approximately 1,000 research analysts and consultants in more than 75 locations worldwide [13]. The Insight Research Corporation [12], USA, provides commercial market research and strategic analysis for the telecom industry. Topics include, e.g., Operations Support System (OSS) 2004-2009 and Streaming Media in Telecom Networks 2003-2008, Pervasive Technologies and Telecom Carriers 2004-2009.

2.4.6

Companies

Large companies like Apple, Dell, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Nokia Palm, Sun Microsystems, etc., not only create roadmaps and white paper documents to guide their strategy but also publish some of them in order to influence the markets - i.e. shape the future.

2.5 Chosen roadmaps

The following table summarises the publisher, publication time, roadmap timeframe and main technical topics of the main ICT roadmaps considered by this work.

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Table 1 Main ICT roadmaps evaluated in this document1

Roadmap Book of Vision Technology Roadmap for SoftwareIntensive Systems ITEA 2001, 20043 Purple Book Flying Carpet The vision and roadmap document of the NETS programme and it's thematic groups Tekes 2001, 2003 WWRI

Publisher Published, latest revision Origin Length (pages) Timeframe Focus

WWRF 2001, (2004)2

CELTIC 2003, 2004

mITF 2003, 2004

IST 2002

Global 279 + papers -2010-

Europe working 148

Europe 109

Japan 148

Finland 26

Europe 84

2004 - 2010

- 2010 End-to-End Telecommunication systems, networks

2002 - 2010 Mobile

2005-2010

2002-2010

Technical Softwarerecommendations intensive for the wireless systems world Suggestions for future research and concepts in the wireless world

Wireless systems, Business, broadband packet market, services networks, services and applications for Three scenarios for future ICT

Approach

Overview of Overview of Suggestions and Guidance research research challenges concepts for 4G programme challenges and and trends mobile systems trends

Timeframe estimations for technologies

No, only towards Some, divided No, only 2010 and beyond into short term 2010 (2004-2006), mid term (2007-2009), long term (2010 beyond) Yes Yes Yes

towards Yes, (2002-2003, Yes, shortly for 2005 (2002-2003), 2005-2006, 2010 and 2010 (2005-2007), beyond) (2009-2010)

Trends

Yes

Yes

Yes

AMI@Life, NETS thematic group 3a roadmaps and VTT technology roadmaps were used as input for this work but not included in this table due to shortage of space
2

Not published at the time of writing, to be published in the summer of 2004

Version 2 not published at the time fo writing (published in the summer 2004); a draft version of version 2 was used in addition to version 1 in this work

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3 Roadmap analysis for 2007-2012

The scenarios, visions and development of technology enablers extracted from the roadmaps are summarized in this section. The following analysis is revised by comments gathered in interviews, workshops and other individual contributions from various experts that were obtained during the roadmap process.

3.1 Analysis of visions

Towards Ambient Intelligence The common view of the major ICT roadmaps is that our living environment will in future be more and more augmented by various digital services and functionalities. Future communication capabilities will meet and perhaps even exceed user expectations in terms of simplicity and functionality. The living environment itself may stay much the same as it is today. However, there will be technology embedded in it for providing various services for the user. Enablers like smart devices and sensors, as well as different network capabilities, will be available in people's everyday living environment - in the home, the workplace, the car, clothing, etc. In general, the use of services and underlying network structures will be fully transparent to the user. As consumption of services today is largely happening in a fixed environment, such as the home or workplace, roadmaps see that the importance of service mobility is increasing. This implies that technologies and business models supporting mobility of services are becoming more important. There is a strong indication in both roadmaps and interviews that services should be available to users anywhere and anytime. The user should also be able to use the terminal he prefers - e.g. PC, mobile terminal, Digital TV.... As use of services is moving from fixed environments - fixed terminals towards anywhere, anytime, any device, and any environment a model of new requirements for service provision will arise. According to the roadmaps, adaptation of services is an important topic. Adaptation will be done using many parameters - like user context (location, activity, behaviour, etc), profiles (likes, dislikes, hobbies, etc) used terminal (PC, mobile terminal, digital TV, etc.), available network capabilities (broadband, mobile network, vehicular network, etc). Adaptation will be proactive, taking various inputs into account automatically and even learn about the user's behaviour. The roadmaps, as well as the people interviewed, emphasize the importance of privacy issues and users control over proactive adaptation mechanisms.

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There are two different views existing in the roadmaps concerning the terminals people will be using in the future. The first is that everyone will have one multi-purpose terminal, which can be used for communication, authentication, as keys, etc. Another view is that the user will communicate with and control services using all kinds of devices in his surroundings. The communication will be based on self-explanatory, easy-to-use multi-modal natural human interfaces like voice and gestures, which are suitable for all sorts of people, such as the elderly and the disabled, and will also respect differences in our cultures. We will be helped by augmented reality, which will provide our daily lives and physical views with useful information, as well as exciting experiences. Mobile systems will be an inseparable part of our daily lives in various branches of living (e.g. work, education, entertainment, health care, commerce...). The nature of mobile systems will make new lifestyles viable. For example, systems monitoring vital functions using bodywearable sensors with pervasive communication capabilities will provide an added sense of security for elderly people and possibly encourage them to take longer walking trips outside the home. In addition to the business drivers there are other factors driving progress further. People are looking for a life that is more enriched and cultural, more flexible and diversified, more comfortable and safe, and more personal and convenient. Advancements in communication and information technology will be a major factor in realising these needs. A convergence of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent user interfaces will bring us towards the Ambient Intelligence era. Networks Networks - cellular, broadband, short-range, sensor, vehicular, satellite networks, etc. - are converging and interoperable over All-IP. Networks provide always-on, Always Best-Connected (ABC) access with guaranteed end-toend seamless services with QoS (Quality of Service), security and mobility. Networks are also utilising general authentication, charging, personalisation methods supported by end-toend security and QoS, while virus- and digital rights management (DRM) protection are embedded in the telecommunication infrastructure. There will be networks-in-networks, which will form nested spheres inside one another starting from Body Area Network (BAN), Personal Area Network (PAN), Vehicular Area Network (VAN), Virtual Home Environment (VHE), etc. Whenever people move, at home, in their car or in public places, the associated personal networks will move with them. These personal networks will provide access to the desired information and all services they are subscribed to. The mobile terminal will be used to control other devices; it will enables Internet connectivity and be a part of the personal area network. Ad hoc networks will be

13

used in a temporary situation - e.g. in a conference or in concerts - to build up an autoconfigurative network and as an extension to access network coverage. New radio interfaces will provide higher bandwidth efficiency. The target for beyond-3Gsystem bandwidth should be 100Mbps/1Gbps for the mobile and stationary user, respectively. The cost of the access network will be relatively low (equivalent of 30 /month) and still provide a high bandwidth access in the order of 10 -100 Mbps. Machine to machine (M2M) communication and applications is an issue that has many controversial views. The issue is not highly ranked in the major roadmaps and not all of the interviewed people were convinced of the importance of M2M. M2M applications today have been realized largely based on the Short Message Service (SMS), but the trend is towards M2M using IP-protocol. Other strong opinions in favor of M2M stated that M2M in All-IP environment would create large share of the network traffic in the future. This is based on general assumption that the devices in ubiquitous environment would be connected to AllIP networks and would use IP as a base protocol for communication. Services and frameworks Personalized and context-aware services are available for the user anywhere, anytime using the most appropriate means. Applications will adapt to the users context by using profiles and network services (presence, positioning, billing, local services, QoS) to allow rich communication. The services will have self-learning capabilities. Services are easy find and use. They can be used anonymously, but, whenever necessary, the users can be reliably identified. Common charging and identification methods exist. Personal authentication technology allows a user to securely purchase items, do mobile ordering or use administrative services through networks. Network security will emerge to prevent illegal activities and violation of privacy in different domains, including home, work, vehicles, etc. New services will be based on open standards and interfaces that are interoperable in an allIP network. A flexible service platform will provide services management and charging and inter-work with other domains. It will also be open to third-party service providers to import their own services. It will also be possible to offer and charge services with different level of quality of service (QoS). In homes there will be an increased number of automated and intelligent devices that will help our daily lives. Communication - e.g. video calls with family members outside the home, reading emails, etc. - will be embedded in the home infrastructure. The devices and machines at home will have a network connection, so the home appliance software can be updated by service providers via the Internet when authorized.

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Multimedia communication will be an increasingly important part of various services. Person-to-person communication services will be enriched with features such as presence management, dynamic call management, advanced unified messaging services and multimodal service management interfaces. Communication will also be enriched with "reality feelings" in addition to video and voice - e.g. virtual meetings.

3.2 Analysis of trends

Business trends Markets are changing - New structures and opportunities will emerge Increased productivity is one of the main drivers for deploying new technology in general. This is also applicable to investments in information and communication technology. There are strong statements, both in the roadmaps and the interviews, that utilizing IP applications will bring great benefits in terms of productivity, quality improvements, new features and cost savings. However, it is not only serious business drivers that will drive the development of new ICT technologies. The importance of applications for the sharing of experiences, forming digital communities and fun were emphasized in the roadmaps as well as in the interviews. In general, services and applications are the key. The underlying technology is not relevant to the end users. They are mainly interested in services and applications. However, technology is an important factor in changing the way the applications and services will be built. One of the major changes will be the large-scale adoption of all-IP in services and applications. AllIP with e-and m-Commerce will change and amend business processes tremendously. The information and communication technology markets are changing fast. Competition and differentiation are driven by deregulation and globalization. Business models are also changing rapidly. New business models tend to be more networked and more complicated than earlier because of an increased number of stakeholders. These stakeholders often have mutually conflicting interests and a different understanding of markets and their goals. Service brokering business models are likely to appear for adding value by managing user identity, profiling, billing and granting access to services. Service delivery and connectivity will be separated more clearly into different businesses - Telco's provide transport and third parties providing services are becoming widespread. The convergence of information and the communication industry continues. Convergence is taking place on many levels: on the industry level, network level, application level and content level. The major enablers are interoperability over IP and digitalisation of all content. The converging digital industry is bringing together parts of the consumer electronics, communication, information technology, media and entertainment industries. Based on the

15

interviews, convergence in the IT and communication technologies is considered a really important source of new possibilities in terms of new applications and businesses and new ways of building and managing business processes more effectively. Restructuring of companies into smaller, more independently operating units is increasing the need for collaboration across sites and, sometimes, increasingly, across companies. This is a driver for promoting the interoperability of technologies. As the importance of interoperability increases, standards will play a key role. However, not all standardisation-like activities will be carried out by standardisation bodies. The dominant design approach - where a single company or group of companies jointly push forward their own solution - is likely to be increasingly important. The industry is moving towards open software platforms that enable widespread application development - Java and Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) being the key solutions. Forums are being created to accomplish vendor HW and SW interoperability for certain technologies, such as WiFi (Wireless Fidelity). Regulation, legislation, social and economic conditions, and constraints are important factors for the adoption of new technology. Depending on the commentator, it is either the development of technical enablers or the services that are emphasized. For example, in discussion about digital TV or mobile services in Finland there is the question that the services will only emerge when there are enough consumers to use the services. Specific groups of people (children, the elderly and the disabled) also have their role in the development of new services and technology. They have different requirements and needs. There may also be potential business as well. For example, the EU has stated that those specific categories of end users must be taken into account in telecommunication systems. In traditional networks this is achieved with large keypads and screens or by feedback on telephones, emergency calls, etc., but very little is being done for the emerging IP-based call systems. Since applications will be based on IP, the services and applications would be easy to deliver and would gain large markets. This is something that may have great potential in terms of business as well. We will have the advent of home connectivity and home networking. It is expected that residential users, together with business, will be the main sources of revenue for operators and manufacturers. Location-based Services (LBS) are also expected to provide new revenue for all the actors in the value chain

Networks Networks are developing rapidly The Internet is becoming a mass medium and Internet Protocol (IP) the leading network protocol. Based on the interviews, value creation will move from the network to all-IP applications. In IP networks, Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) is an important enabler that provides session initiation - e.g. between users or devices.

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Communication via mobile radio networks is increasing enormously. Wireless communication will become even more important than it is today in areas other than mobile telephony (e.g. mobile multimedia services). Even though mobile and wireless communication means are increasingly important, wired connections also have an important role. For example, the performance of backbone fixed network must be developed constantly to match increase in data traffic caused by multimedia applications and wireless communication. According to the roadmaps, it seems obvious that in addition to the current networks there will be a large variety of different networks available. In addition to the current fixed broadband (xDSL), GSM/3G and Wireless Local Access Network (WLAN) networks there will also be networks for services used in the personal area (PAN), the body Area (BAN), cars, homes, etc. Earlier networks were developed for a single purpose, e.g. the telephone network (POTS). The current trend, however, is that even though the new networks have been optimized for one particular purpose, they are increasingly interoperable because of the network protocol used - IP. This development means that networks are moving from the single service - single network paradigm towards multi-services networks. The available bandwidth is increasing considerably and the price/bit is decreasing dramatically. The bandwidth is expected to grow from the 2 Mbit/s currently offered via xDSL or Cable modem for stationary users up to 1 Gbps in the next decade. In the 2004-2008 timeframe, 3G, Wireless LAN and Bluetooth will be important wireless technologies to build applications on. For wireless short-distance connections, the bandwidth will grow up to 50 Mbps in the near future. For mobile users, a bandwidth of 100 Mbps is visible by 2012. Multimedia services are perhaps the most important drivers for an increase in bandwidth. According to the roadmaps and interviews, it is not likely that there will be an explosion of bandwidth in radio networks. In fixed networks however, this may be possible. Satellite access systems envisage broadband deployment in areas where wired solutions fail to be cost effective Todays data traffic is highly symmetrical in fixed-line networks (i.e. in core networks) due to peer-to-peer applications, such as the "Napster" kind of shared downloading and storage applications. This trend will also be valid in the future due to symmetrical data services like video conferencing, peer-to-peer-services and small- / home-office services. As these applications will be used largely in wireless networks, the traffic will also be symmetrical in the mobile domain in addition to core networks. The present mobile networks are not designed for session mobility or handovers between different operators, even within the same access technology, not to mention session mobility between different access technologies. For example, as yet there is no common method for seamless handover between 3G and WLAN networks, even inside the same operator network. According to the interviews, 3GPP is working on allowing the same device to connect through 3G and WLAN by interoperable authentication and charging mechanisms,

17

but they are presently not very active in providing session mobility between two technologies. This is probably an issue for the future UMTS release 7. However, according to the interviews there are signs that handovers will work between different network technologies in 2007. The vertical handover between 3G and WLAN is already presented by Finnish operator TeliaSonera in the Tekes-funded VHO project. There is also the question of how seamless the seamless handover needs to be. In certain applications the users may not see, e.g., a 10-second handover time problematic. In the interviews there was a statement that fully operable seamless roaming between network technologies, and private and public networks could be technically realized before 2012, but the major challenge probably lies with the business models. Without a sustainable business model that would provide profits for most of the actors in this field, seamless roaming will not be established. For example, would it be reasonable for a cellular operator to invest a large amount of resources in establishing system that would allow their customers to change their current connection from 3G to a public and possibly free WLAN connection that is not owned by that operator? New functionalities are emerging in the networks. They will start to support quality of service (QoS) (one-to-one, multipoint, content distribution), security, billing, serviceawareness, etc. The network can also provide capabilities like location or presence. In some of the comments it was pointed out that voice recognition is becoming mature technology and will be used for controlling services in the networks. Home networking will be increasingly important, also its connectivity to the Internet using broadband access. Car networks are seen as likely to become more important in the future due to the integration of communication and entertainment devices in cars. Communication between cars and between the car and the traffic environment will increase. Traffic information systems will emerge. These car-related trends are strongest in the countries where the amount of traffic is high and where the people have to spend a considerable amount of time per day in their car due to traffic jams. Services, software, content and frameworks Digital content and interoperability of systems and services will be a major enabler for various services in the future Users should be in the driving seat in the development of new services. They have certain expectations for mobile services. According to the roadmaps and interviews, users value relatively simple things. They want to have more freedom of time and place. They want to have easy-to-use, fun and convenient applications and services. Communication between people should be richer, expressing emotions and feelings, and users also expect that new mobile communication systems will provide something more than just "faster speed".

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The importance of software is increasing simultaneously with hardware development (more and more computing power, memory, bandwidth, etc., at lower costs) and ubiquitous communication. Software is at the heart of an increasing number of new products and services. According to the roadmaps, a real integration of communication, A/V and gaming applications will first emerge in the area of on-line gaming. New modes of person-to-person communication will also emerge from the same application domain. One of the main "revolutions" in person-to-person communication will be the long-awaited addition of video to the voice stream with the development of video telephony. There is also a trend that services will be offered to the user as enriched. This is already visible in the case of voice communication, where presence and positioning services can give more value to the service. The devices are evolving from independent stand-alone devices towards integrated devices and collections of collaborating devices. A post-PC era is emerging, where not only the PC is connected to the Internet but also game consoles, Internet enabler TVs, smart handheld devices, web terminals, car and home appliances and PC tablets are part of the net. All media will be in digital format. It is already hard to find a business or content which is solely in analogue / non-digital format. On the contrary, virtually all new content is digital. For example, messaging is becoming more and more digital, music and movies are in digital format, administrative services can be increasingly provided via networks, TV is becoming digital, e-commerce is emerging, etc. The amount of digital content will increase rapidly. It is not only companies and organisations producing digital content but also people are using PCs, digital cameras, video cameras and mobile phones equipped with cameras to produce vast amounts of digital content. This is creating a demand for solutions for management and search capabilities for that content. It is also likely that new kinds of services will be seen in this area. According to information society scenarios, the home is increasingly becoming a place of work. A variety of services will be provided to users via fixed broadband access in their home. One of the most important may be Rich Call / Voice over IP (VoIP) services over Digital Subscriber Line (xDSL). The car can also be seen as an extension of the home in terms of an environment to consume services such as communication, entertainment (music, movies, etc), information (e.g. news) and TV. Security and protection of privacy is becoming more and more important. As people consume more network-based services it is important to be able to trust the services one uses. This implies that there will be an increasing demand for trusted third parties providing certification services (certify person, services, content, etc). Other important issues are reliable and user-friendly identification and authentication methods, Virus and SPAM

19

protection. In addition to reliable user identification, solutions for payments in a network are an important subject for development. Digital Rights Management (DRM) seems to be an issue with controversial viewpoints. Obviously, content producers are most interested in DRM and willing to have it deployed in the system. Strong DRM protection is already today necessity for mobile ring tone and JAVA-application business. On the other hand, some people interviewed were not quite sure whether users want to have DRM or what the business model for that will be. It is seen as a "nice to have" feature for common user-created material, but for large entertainment companies like TimeWarner the efficient and trusted way of content protection -e.g. protecting latest box-office movie in digital format - is surely important.

3.3 Analysis of services and technology enablers

Services and functionalities 2007 Communication services are becoming increasingly mobile and visual multimedia communication is becoming more and more important. There will be a rich variety of network-based services like messaging services, person-to-person multimedia services, rich communication utilizing presence, positioning and voice control, PoC services (Push-ToTalk), videoconferencing and VoIP. SIP is beginning to be a major service enabler. New (ICT) technologies are enabling new kinds of services in the field, like infotainment, health care, eCommerce, work and education. Services to promote collaboration and sharing of content in both freetime and working time will be a strong trend. For example, group communication and content sharing applications between friends and family may be a field for new inventions. By this time, the adaptation of services will take place using profiles that describe terminal properties, habits, likes/dislikes. Personalization and adaptation based on simple context and, especially, location-information will be a part of many services. Services and functionalities 2012 Communication with ICT systems is more natural. New user interaction mechanisms (voice, context/location adaptation, etc.) have been integrated as part of service technology. Adaptation is fully context-aware, using information on situation, history, profiles, and available devices. The services are self-learning to gain a better understanding of our needs. Agent technology and different brokering service providers help users to manage the vast amount of content located in the network. There is an increasing demand for trust and certification services - e.g. trusted third parties are used to certify a service or content. More precise positioning enables new kinds of applications in, e.g., warehouses or key finderapplications/services where positioning within a range of a few cm is needed.

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Terminals in 2007 More radio accesses are implemented to mobile terminals, including digital Video broadcast (DVB-H) and short range technologies - e.g. Near Field Communication (NFC). Terminals are capable of identifying the user by biometric or smart card solution, they can choose the best possible radio access, smart applications use indoor/outdoor positioning information as a first step towards context awareness. Positioning is done by Global Navigation Satellite system (GNSS) added to cellular positioning (A-GPS) and indoor positioning. Limited multimodality of voice and gestures is used in terminals and services. Terminals in 2012 There may be one terminal which takes the place of all devices and is used for many purposes - i.e. wallet, remote control, personal data storage and authentication. Terminals are not always needed for communication - e.g. using voice-controlled user interfaces. Terminals or devices that need to be controlled are used with a wide range of modalities (voice, gestures, pointing, eye-control) and can give feedback to the user. Terminals can sense each other and make assumptions on how they should react e.g. by going to silent mode in place where other terminals are in silent mode if this is in user preferences. Sensors and terminals are so small that they can be embedded in clothing and the environment. Terminal power consumption (and extensive heat production) is challenging due to the large power consumption of multimedia processing. This requires terminal platform and application power optimisation. Power is produced in the terminals by fuel cells, and batteries can be charged inductively without wires. Networks in 2007 Network convergence is expanding, but end-to-end network control over security, QoS and seamless fast roaming is not fully accomplished at the network level. Application level handover is accomplished. Network-dependent QoS mechanisms are not fully interoperable. Bandwidth is 2 Mbps on the move and 10-14 Mbps for a stationary user. Data traffic is symmetrical in fixed networks but asymmetry exists in the mobile environment due to browsing and download-type applications. Improvements on spectral efficiency rely on emergent Multiple Input / Multiple Output (MIMO), adaptive antennae, diversity, Medium Access Control (MAC) solutions. MIMO and smart antennae are used in base stations, but not in terminals at this point. Networks in 2012 Cellular, WLAN, WPAN and broadcast networks are mainly converged. Software Defined Radio (SDR) is used to access all radio interfaces in an optimum way. It is possible that RoW technologies are used in some cases to establish fixed-line networks connectivity - e.g. in third world countries. Communication speed for mobile networks is 100 Mbps for a mobile

21

user and 1 Gbps for a stationary user. In the wireless domain this kind of speed may require a very short range (i.e. below a few meters) between the transmitter and the receiver. Multimedia services like VoIP, videoconferencing and P2P cause symmetrical traffic (downlink-uplink) also in mobile network. Single login to heterogeneous networks provides roaming of service, authentication, billing information and QoS guarantees with one procedure. Ultra Wide Band (UWB) is a mature enabler to exploit fast data transmission of short-range networking. Spectral efficiency is clearly higher than before due to MIMO, smart antennae, ad hoc, diversity, new MAC technologies and cross-layer design. MIMO and smart antennae are used in terminals and base stations. Cross-layer techniques over a TCP/IP stack improve telecommunication system multimedia data delivery. PANs are used widely in conjunction with ad hoc connectivity to other devices and networks, ad hoc and sensor networks have multi-hop capabilities, moving network bubbles - i.e. PANs - can connect to each other and sensor networks are embedded in our surroundings. Content and security in 2007 MPEG-4 and its successors provide the foundation for video coding in 2007. MPEG-7 and MPEG-21 are widely used for metadata descriptions of multimedia content. XML is a basic mark-up language and is used in most of the applications. Security is mainly done by Virtual Private Networks (VPN), Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), SIM-card, bank account key numbers. Bio-identification is used in certain applications. Content and security in 2012 Multimedia data content is a major source of traffic for telecommunication networks. In order to save bandwidth, new multimedia coding algorithms are developed that have a very high compression rate and are scalable to network load and the required video quality. Security is embedded in all devices and the telecom infrastructure, which automatically does SPAM and DRM filtering. End-to-end security is accomplished. Third-party certifications are used. Authentication is done with one scheme that works for all networks and services; it could be based on biometric or/and smart card approaches. User privacy is assured by thirdparty service providers that hold this information securely.

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Table 2 Technology Roadmap summary

2007 2012

Services

Towards more natural use or network services New services available 2007 Communication and user interaction with ICT Communication getting mobile systems getting more natural (new means of Multimedia communication interaction) Personalisation and adaptation using simple More accurate positioning available context (location) Services and adaptation are context aware Mobile services for various fields of life Agent technology to help user with vast Collaboration and sharing an important trend amount of content and services Brokering-type business models From a network-centered world towards terminal-centred world More radio accesses implemented for mobile Multi-purpose terminals (communication, terminals (2G, 3G, HSDPA, WLAN, BT, remote control, data storage, authentication) NFC,DVB-H,...) Radio access based on SDR User identification (biometric / smart card) MIMO and start antennae integrated with Terminal can choose best radio access terminals Limited multimodality Power is a critical issue (due to, e.g., More sensors in terminals multimedia processing requirements) Fuel cells in use as power sources Size of terminals and sensors very small => can be embedded anywhere Communication without a terminal (voice interfaces) Increased bandwidth in converging networks IP is the dominant network protocol All-IP converged networks with IPv6 base Network convergence expanding protocol Application-level handover accomplished SDR used to access all radio interfaces in 2 Mbps on move, 10-14 Mbps stationary optimum way Data traffic mainly symmetric 100 Mbps on move, 1Gbps stationary Positioning using global navigation satellite Single log-on in heterogeneous networks system (GNSS) with cellular positioning and UWB mature enabler indoor positioning PAN networks used widely MIMO and smart antennae integrated with Sensor networks embedded in our surroundings base stations Digital multimedia data to be main source of traffic in networks MPEG-4 and its successors as a foundation Multimedia content is a major traffic source in for video coding telecommunication networks MPEG-7 and XML used widely for metadata New multimedia coding algorithms are Digital Rights management importance developed increasing DRM and content protection integrated in services All multimedia content is described with metadata Towards trusted services and end-to-end security Security mainly using VPN, PKI, SIM-card, End-to-end security accomplished bank account key numbers Security embedded in all devices and telecom Bio-identification used in certain applications infrastructure Trusted third-party certification services Automatic spam and DRM filtering in network emerging Third-party services e.g. for charging, certification, personal information used 1. Authentication done with same scheme for all networks and services

Terminals

Networks

Content

Security

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4 Critical paths in the network and service technology evolution

In traditional roadmap schemes the technology enablers are placed in certain time regions, e.g. in short, mid and long-term categories. There is usually no evaluation of the requirements for certain enablers or services to become reality. The traditional roadmaps are useful for most purposes, but for more elaborate study the causal development needs to be identified.

4.1 Critical paths

Some of the needs for clarifying the development of technologies can be answered by establishing so-called causal or critical paths. Within the context of this study they provide a way of representing how technology enablers evolve from one to another and what the links between them are. The common property of such a diagram seems to be that it is almost impossible to establish a simple critical path for a certain technology enabler; on the detail level, almost everything connects to everything. There is also a possibility of identifying critical points, where certain criteria - e.g. emergence of standard - must be satisfied in order to take one more step in the path. In the following we have identified the main critical paths and critical points from the material gathered from the roadmaps. It must be pointed out that none of the evaluated roadmaps included presentations of such paths. It also seems that these kinds of diagrams have not been formerly published on such a scale as is done here. We believe that the following critical paths are among the first attempts at clarifying the development paths of services and networks. Naturally, not all things can be included for clarity due to the limited resources for this work, but we hope the most essential ones are in place. We are sure that one could find countless numbers of ways of establishing these graphs, but as they are published here they provide a basis for comments and suggestions for further improvement.

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Past/Now
C ommerce Business Models Services C ontext Aw areness C ontent D igital Identity and Security Mobile Terminals N etw orks R adio Technology

Future/Vision Time

Technology C entric W orld

U ser C entric W orld

Figure 3. Overview of the critical paths Figure 3 shows the main identified critical paths in the evolution from a technology-centric world to user-centric world. Today we are in a technology-centric world, where technology develops almost independently from user needs. In the future, the development and use of technology should originate from user needs. In order to create a manageable number of critical paths, these 9 categories were chosen: commerce, business models, services, context awareness, content, digital identity and security, mobile terminals, networks and radio technology. The overall categorisation was made to satisfy both the classifications found in the roadmaps and the interests of those people who participated the roadmap process - i.e. mainly the thematic group members. The colours shown in the graphs are mainly to make the paths easier to read. In general, those enablers that are closer to what we have today are marked with white and green, and those that are more headed in the future are in grey. The lines or links between enablers may have several meanings, e.g. evolution in time, dependence between enablers or requirement depending on the situation.

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4.1.1

Commerce

Past/Now
Shopping and Commerce on the Internet
e/m-shopping

Future/Vision Time
Point and order on the move

RFID

Readers in Handhelds

Tagged products

E-commerce G lobal Naming, Numbering, and Addressing Digital Identity

The Internet

IPv6

SIP

Common Authentication

M-commerce

Mobile Commerce ubiquitously available, network & terminal indepence common charging, privacy & security

All-IP 3G SIM based authentication

O pen Service platforms

Telecommunication Networks

Charging

Mobile Payment O ne Invoice

Figure 4. Commerce Figure 4 presents the critical path for commerce. Commerce is separately evolving in the Internet and telecommunication networks, which are expected to converge in the future and provide a common way of selling and purchasing services, products and things. In the vision of the future people will be able to buy and easily consume services anywhere they are provided by All-IP connectivity, and with many new ways provided by a natural access to mobile commerce services. Commerce requires security and the digital identity of customers, resellers and products. Open service platforms will speed up the commerce development by integrating new resellers into a global m-commerce network. Common authentication allows the identification of the people and different parties involved in commercial transactions over different networks. In the future, commerce will go towards a point-and-order type of interaction. Tagged products and mobile devices capable of reading tag information will provide access to product information and make purchases instantly using mobile devices on the move. An important role for commerce is the development of payment methods. There are three major approaches: mobile operator charging system (local), credit card companies - e.g.

26

VISA - (global) and digital money (global). The low cost per payment transaction is crucial in the competition between these approaches. In addition, the users trust of a payment method is important - this is especially challenging for digital money. The critical points in commerce are: user acceptance of new types of purchasing commonly used trusted invoicing, payment and authentication systems, tagged products and tag readers in terminals.

4.1.2

Business Models

Past/Now
System integrators
Information Technology

Future/Vision Time
ICT

Integration of Information and Communication Technologies based on IP

Communication Technology

Contract manufacturer
Equipment manufacturer

O riginal Design Manufacturer O DM Original Equipment Manufacturer O EM

Equipment manufacturer Large number of business roles and rapidly changing business models

Virtual operators
Network provider

IP Operators

Network provider with services

Network operator with services Service provider for mobile user

Service provider

Internet

ISP/W ISP Content Provisioning Application aggretator

Broker Application Service Provider ASP "End-users" providing services

3rd party added value service provider

Content provider

Content aggregator

Application Developer

Figure 5. Business models The advent of real ICT technology will be seen as information technology, and communication technologies will be integrated and based on IP. The business models are quite stable in person-to-person messaging (GSM, SMS, MMS), although the situation is different in corporate solutions; there are more possibilities for new actors and innovative business models as the actors business roles are changing. For example, a current IT partner offering IT systems and fixed line data traffic may also start to provide mobile GSM and data services. The business models will change more rapidly and the number of business stakeholders will increase. Telco's provided the network connection and voice services in the development

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phase of the mobile services. Later, they also started to provide a large number of data transport, infotainment and downloadable application services. Regulation has an effect on the evolution of business roles. The competition authorities in the EU and US emphasize open competition without monopolies. As a result, operators are forced to open their network infrastructure to other players. Such new players are virtual operators that use existing network operator infrastructure to provide GSM and data services for their customers. Another revolution in the service market is the connection from the terminal to the Internet - the realisation of a mobile Internet. This gives large opportunities for service providers in the Internet to provide services to mobile users as well. Users can then choose the Internet services independent of their mobile connectivity operator. The general trend is towards separation of the network operator business role into network infrastructure provider and service provider roles. In addition to the telecom business, a similar trend can be identified in the broadcasting business - e.g. separation of digital television network provider and digital television service provider. The All-IP environment will be very versatile. There is a demand for third-party service providers in order to reduce complexity and increase interoperability and communication. Third-party added-value service providers will offer services for identification purposes between individuals and businesses (e.g. MS .NET Passport [37], Liberty Alliance [38]), managing context information, charging, personal data management, personal profiles management and certification, etc. Brokers and aggregators will provide a platform where a vast number of services, businesses and users can meet. The "distance" between service provider and service consumer in value chains will be shortened in the future. Examples of this are Internet music (MP3, CD) and the movie business (DVD), downloadable mobile applications, etc. It will become easier and easier for new actors to start providing services in the network. In the long term, even end users may become service providers. This requires that business models include users not only as people who pay for all the services but also as content creators and service providers. The business models will have to cope with increased interoperability and open interfaces in order to create the possibilities for gaining revenue by letting other parties use their resources for a fee. The challenges in combined ALL-IP services reside mostly in business logic rather than in technology. Already today these kinds of services can be realized, but business models will not provide all actors in the business network with an incentive to start doing business. All-IP will provide global connectivity and markets, but local content and services will have an important role in peoples everyday lives. For example, one will be able to download DVD movies from a service provider abroad, but the local bus timetables, etc., will still be found from a local service provider.

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As the technology development cycle gets shorter and the technology complexity increases, the possibility that even the largest companies can hold all the necessary knowledge and be as fast as required in R&D will decrease. The current trend of contract manufacturing - e.g. ODM, aggregator and integrator companies - will continue, especially in mobile terminal development. The critical points are the emergence of new business models that would provide revenues for all actors in the E2E chain, adaptation to global markets and interoperability of business actors' systems.

4.1.3

Services

Past/Now
All-IP

Future/Vision Time
Services available via all networks and operators Service access over networks

O ne service, one network

eG overment
Voting, Tax

Internet eHealth
QoS required, terminal capabilities, user acceptance for video calls SIP

Secure Interoperability of services

Common Access to medical and government services

Chat Email, news Instant messaging e-mail File transfer

Multimedia conferencing & telephony

Context-aware communication

Peer2peer applications
Computers
Understand content

Autonomous ubi-services in All-IP networks

Web browsing

Semantic web
Common interfaces and formats

Automated M2M

Remote access to systems

SMS

Ipv6

M2M
GPRS SIP

SIP-based M2M

Information in many places, needs users own effort

Augmented reality

Virtual reality

Agents / Avatars

Figure 6. Services In general, services offered to users will follow the same technological paths as the commerce path (Figure 4) and context awareness (Figure 7). Context awareness is one of the key points to avoid frustrating users with too much irrelevant content in different situations. The main vision of autonomous services (Figure 6) is that services will be available over any access, user intervention will be reduced, and more and more services will appear. The main issues surrounding this trend are a semantic web, secure interoperability of services, multimedia conferencing, peer2peer applications, SIP, M2M, and agent-based programs in virtual reality.

29

The important issue for mobile services is the service discovery. Typically today, the information about mobile services - e.g. logos, ring tones and JAVA applications - is found from traditional media, such as magazines and newspapers, and from web portals. In order to have a successful mobile service business in the future, users should be able to find services easily from the networks and from the surrounding environment in real time. New services will emerge around multimedia communication, community sharing of content and experience between family and friends, and local information services - e.g. tourist guides, infotainment and e/mCommerce. eGoverment and eHealth services will be available separately in the beginning, but later any access will be used to access both services easily. This will require secure interoperability of service infrastructures. The benefit of these systems is identified in the roadmaps to reduce the costs of medical and government infrastructures. A semantic web will allow computers to discover information sources, and interpret and process information autonomously. Semantic web technologies are the main enabler for service interoperability and a semantic web is one of the key technologies that will allow automation of information sharing and processing between participants. For users, the service interoperability will allow switching between services and using and sharing the data managed and created by different services. Multimedia conferencing and telephone and peer-to-peer services will enable richer communication and easy distribution of information between users. The usage of the different services (WWW, instant messaging, chat and email) that are used today will be unified by SIP support over different networks. Rich calls will consist of calls combining different media and services, such as voice, video and mobile multimedia messaging, into a single call session. Remote access to different systems and equipment is already provided by GPRS and SMSbased technologies. In the future, SIP could be used to open control sessions between these systems. Semantic web information will provide the possibility of automating the exchange of information between the services, systems and business transactions. Information processing today is characterized by the fact that information is scattered in different places, which are mainly accessible using manual searching with WWW browsers. Information processing is going towards automation. Firstly, augmented reality systems will embed information in the surrounding environment, which will then be accessible in different ways - e.g. displays in spectacles and head-up displays in cars. After a vast amount of information is available, monitoring of the new information will become too difficult for the user. The solution to this will be avatars and agents working in virtual reality to allow systems to make decisions and actions on behalf of the user. Critical points for service evolution are: ease of use, service discovery, access to services over networks and channels, personalisation and context awareness in services, interoperability of services, functional security and authentication and management of information, possibility of using services anonymously and lower technical threshold to create services.

30

4.1.4

Context awareness

Context awareness is a key issue in the future services and applications ability to adapt the amount and type of information provided to users at a given time and place. Figure 7 shows the major paths to context-adaptive services, which consists of a user profile standard, content-adaptation technologies and collecting context information from different locations. Collecting, sharing and managing personal information and digital identity are prerequisites to discovering new services from the networks that might be interesting to the user. A user profile standard is needed for storing and using different types of context and profile information on the users. The profile can be also used to find and customize services for the users. Keeping a user profile in the network requires that users have a global identity and can be authenticated. Most likely, the user profile standard will evolve from the telecommunication networks.

Past/Now
Digital Identity

Future/Vision Time
Global context available in all services G lobal location awareness User Personal Profile Standard

Satellite positioning
Cell id, A-GPS

Telecommunication Networks

Cellular location-based Context

Network profiles

Terminal Profiles

Content Adaptation

Context Adaptive Services

Context from environment Presence User Context awareness PIM context Learning User Habits

Electronic calendar

Terminals

Positioning

Sensors in terminals - noise, compass, acceleration, proximity...

Shared context through local connectivity e.g. between phones

Context Sensing Terminals

Figure 7. Context awareness Content adaptation technologies need information about the networks and terminals the user is using in order to provide content in the correct format. The network and terminals properties can be described by using profile information that enumerates the systems capabilities. The users current situation is a more complex issue. This will be used to reduce unwanted content, based on, for example, the time and place of the user. It seems that the information that can be utilized by content adaptation and context awareness is located in different places,

31

and the information can be used differently depending on the situation. Future terminals and networks will support various ways of obtaining context information and managing user personal profiles and personal information, and automating service usage and communication in daily life. One of the challenges is to communicate the relevant context information from the various context sources to the service that is bring used - e.g. from sensors, mobile terminals (e.g. sensors in a mobile terminal or shared context from other mobile terminals) and networks (e.g. presence information or user profiles, user access rights etc.). The sensors in terminals provide information about the sounds, illumination and temperature surrounding the user, and the velocity, direction and actions taken by users - e.g. standing, running, walking, etc. The interoperability of different context sources requires a standardised way of presenting and communicating the context. In addition to using context information to tailor the services to the users' perspective, operators may also use context information for network admission control and resource allocation - e.g. by knowing the mobile users direction from network cell to another. Services and applications may need position information of the user. Global location services are provided by GPS, Galileo or Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which would mean combining many western and eastern satellite systems. The cellular and satellite positioning will be merged - e.g. by A-GPS - but locally it could be meaningful to provide positioning information also in local wireless networks e.g. using WLAN positioning. In addition to location, the telecommunication networks can provide presence information, which is valuable to context-based applications. On the other hand, business users in particular keep an electronic calendar, which can also be utilized by context-aware services. In more advanced scenarios the systems might be able to observe and learn user habits. This information could be used to automate a repeating service usage on behalf of the user. Critical points for context awareness are: user acceptance and control over automation and adaptivity, management of context information (acquisition, processing, storing, sharing and use), infrastructure support for context (sensors and intelligence in terminals and environment, presence and location information) and common standards for context information.

32

4.1.5

Content

Past/Now
Price/bit/service

Future/Vision Time
Telepresence Multimedia services over fixed IP Mobile Multimedia
Fast data transmission New coding standards

Internet webpages

MPEG 4

New coding technologies

XML, SOAP

Web services Content Description Languages O ntology Metadata Standardized Metadata

Semantic Web

Automatic Content/Information Processing

Realtime Media Analysis All content searchable and available to all terminals

Databases

Searchable Storage Systems

DRM

Common DRM standard, industry practise, user acceptance

G lobal Content Intellectual Property

Content created by specialists

Individuals create content and share

New content formats

G lobal content sharing

Context Adaptive Services

Figure 8. Content Figure 8 shows the critical path concerning the creation, management and consumption of content. The content will be globally accessed using a diversity of terminals and networks, content management and processing will be more automated, and content semantics will be more and more understood by applications. The way to create content is evolving from specialists to individual users and eventually all content will be available to all when authorised. The critical paths leading to this are contextadaptive services, automatic content processing, management of intellectual property on a global scale, and storage systems that distribute content in different ways using broadcasting and other multimedia transmission methods. Automatic content processing is made possible by semantic web technologies, real-time media analysis and standardized metadata formats. These allow the automatic processing and indexing of content into searchable storage systems. Management of owner and usage rights of the content (DRM) is a precondition to searchable storage systems and it will increase the popularity of developing new content. DRM techniques will evolve from the mobile environment to a global scale. New efficient information coding techniques are needed to reduce the amount of delivered data in mobile multimedia communication, broadcasting and multimedia transmissions of the content in the future. For multimedia coding, there is still much to be improved in coding efficiency from the current MPEG-4 standard. As the compression ratio is improved, the

33

coding needs to be lightweight in order to match the mobile terminal processing capabilities and reduce power consumption. Critical points for content are: development of more efficient coding methods and content description languages, storage capacity, search functionalities, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) protection, and Digital Rights Management (DRM).

4.1.6

Digital security and digital identity

Past/Now
Local firewalls and virus protection Virus and SPAM filtering in network borders Security and filtering solutions (DRM, SPAM, virus) embedded to telecom infrastructure

Future/Vision Time

Multiple user ids + passwords

Common security
presently in trial use

Multiple Digital Identities

Biometric identification
standardisation

Biometric information in digital format Biometric Profile

Traditional Passport

"ICAO " digital passport

SIM Password Encryption

Local Authentication

G lobal authentication services+ trusted 3rd party AAA servers

Possibility to identify user if needed or be autonomous when using a service

Public Key Infrastructure

easy to use PGP

Digital Signature G lobal Naming+ Addressing

Single Sign-on

Personal Information

Figure 9. Digital security and digital identity Digital identity and security (Figure 9) is a major challenge for future services and networks. In the future, a single digital user identity is needed to provide users with commerce and government services. On the other hand, user privacy must allow anonymous access to information and commerce, as well as absolutely guarantee user identity in some other situations. Today, tamper-proof materials are used in passports and identity cards, and computer readable digital codes are stored in smart cards to allow an identity check on the card user. In the short term, biometric identification will be used to store and compare biometric information for different authentication purposes. Measurements of various different user biometric parameters will be a key technology for allowing easy but secure access to services. Eventually, biometric information could replace the textual user and password pairs.

34

One critical challenge for All-IP networks is security. Already today (2004) we are facing severe problems with viruses, worms, SPAM and malicious attacks in networks. In order to cope with these, the networks and computers have to be protected, e.g. with firewalls. As more and more devices are connected to the Internet, so more protection is needed. The lack of security or restrictions caused by security solutions (e.g. firewalls do not pass necessary traffic for certain applications) may endanger the vision of ubiquitous access. There are also a huge number of relatively simple devices connected to All-IP networks, such as consumer electronics and sensors. It is not likely that these devices can be protected as well as more powerful devices such as computers. Therefore, the security must be established in the telecom infrastructure. Global authentication services will be needed to guarantee the users digital identity during anonymous access (from the viewpoint of the service provider) and fully identified access to services (e.g. access to bank or company). Both Internet and telecommunication network technologies will support the path. Common AAA servers will provide authentication, authorization and accounting globally for all users. Personal information can be stored in networks as a profile, which can be partly revealed to service providers during the service access. The key point of security is that global naming and addressing is available, after which the authentication services can be arranged globally. Critical points for digital identity and security are: trusted global and local identification (biometric identification, digital signature), development of virus protection methods and SPAM filtering, improvements in network infrastructure security and anonymous use of services.

35

4.1.7

Mobile terminals

Past/Now
NETW O RK CENTRICITY TERMINAL CENTRICITY

Future/Vision Time

BIW displays

Color displays

3D displays

non-rigid displays

Extra features e.g. headphones, FM radio

Camera
Intelligent applications

Sensors in terminals - noise, compass, acceleration, proximity...

Proprietary sw in MT

O pen platforms Symbian/JAVA/ MS/Linux/SavaJe

Communication with other devices e.g. other terminals, home appliances, sensors, actuators e.g. NFC, RFID

Contextual, sensing mobile terminal

Applications provided by 3:rd parties

O ne access e.g. G SM

Multi-access e.g. 2G ,3G , W LAN, short range, DVB-H

Parallel radio multi-access

O ne modality

Several modalities e.g. keys, voice

Multimodal, natural interfaces

O ne antenna

Sector Antennas

MIMO in BS Smart antenna array in BS

MIMO on MT and BS Smart antenna in MT/BS

Power usage and high heat production critical

NiCd batteries

Li-ion batteries

DMFC fuel cells

New advanced fuel cells

Figure 10. Mobile terminals The critical paths of the mobile terminals (Figure 10) consist of display, software, user interface, air interface, communication, antenna, and power technology paths. We are facing a change from network centricity towards terminal centricity. The service that is found and used in a network (e.g. the network operator provides these services) will more often be found from the one terminal the user is carrying. Terminals could also be used for many new purposes, like mp3 player, radio receiver, TV receiver, camera, remote control, data storage and GPS device. In this sense, terminals will get "thicker" and take a market share of these formerly separated devices, especially in the low-cost category. Already today the terminals have open software platforms like JAVA, Symbian, MicroSoft Windows, Linux, etc. This development will continue in the future. The terminals will have similar applications to those that are found in a PC, but more and more often third parties will provide applications that use the phone as a platform for many new purposes. This evolution requires that the programming languages used in the terminals can use most of the functionalities that the terminal possesses - i.e. more interfaces. Another challenging issue is the interoperability of applications in terminals that have different operating systems. It is likely that there will be many competing operating systems in terminals at first, but eventually only a few will have a leading role in the markets. This situation resembles the evolution of the PC operating system in recent years.

36

The user interface evolution consists of displays, multimodal interfaces and standard applications, such as GPS, camera, biometric identification, etc. Multimodal interfaces are the key technology as they determine the appearance and interaction of a device or application. Multimodal interfaces will be optional to keyboard and mouse. Pen, speech, and gesture-based operation will be increasingly popular for mobile consumer terminals. The air interface consists of radio and antenna evolution in wireless networks. At present the terminals are only capable of accessing one network at a time and a terminal is capable of switching a radio network from GSM to UMTS. Parallel radio multi-access will allow access to different radio networks at the same time. Antenna evolution promises increased throughput and more optimal utilization of bandwidth using multiple input-output-capable base stations and mobile terminals. Terminals will be able to communicate with a large number of other devices using different techniques (e.g. NFC, RDIF). Many types of sensors will be also embedded in future devices to allow control of applications and to sense the current user context. New multimedia applications, the many radio interfaces that may be used simultaneously, and the increased intelligence in terminals will clearly require higher amounts of power. Todays battery technology may not be able provide a sufficient amount of power/volume an issue that could become critical. Low-temperature fuel cells, such as the Direct Methanol Fuel Cell (DMFC), may replace rechargeable batteries and solve this challenge. But if the power issue is solved, another critical issue comes with the extensive heat production and cooling for the handheld terminals. Critical points for terminal development are: open sw-platforms and programming languages that are interoperable and have more interfaces to terminal functionalities, development of display technology, integration of sensors to terminals, ease of use, power consumption and heat production.

37

4.1.8

Networks

Past/Now
Unicast networks Multicast networks Unicast/multicast/broadcast used in conjuction

Future/Vision Time

IPv6 test networks (end2end) E2E IPv4 Internet Commercial Internet IPv4

Simple & easy transition mechanisms 3GPP rel6, Asia and US dept. of defence pull for IPv6

Transition period (IPv4 and IPv6)

E2E All-IPv6 Internet

Short range networks Fixed-line Internet Cellular Networks

Internet convergence

Home/Local networks
VPN

PAN and ad hoc networks Sensor networks

QoS in networks

Converged networks, seamless access

Mobile Internet
SIP

Mobile networks

ABC
3GPP rel 7 enables

Intra-technology roaming and HO in same techn.

Vertical handover e.g. 3G-W LAN within same operator

Seamless interdomain handover between technologies

Session mobility

Independent flow mobility

Mobility

Multi-access

Mobile multi-homing

Session split over several interfaces

Figure 11. Networks The Internet architecture was originally designed for connecting stationary computers. During its evolution the computers were collected as sub-networks, which were connected to the Internet. The wireless Internet was established when wireless networks such as WLAN and cellular networks were connected to Internet. Presently the xDSL connection is becoming familiar in homes as a fixed line Internet connection. The virtual private network (VPN) technology provides a secure connection for home and business systems over different networks. The major challenge for network development lies in the all-IP paradigm, where all kinds of devices (sensors, M2M and home appliances) and networks (e.g. cellular, broadband, home, personal area, sensor and ad hoc networks) are inherently connected to the all-IP Internet. Today, the cellular networks provide some services using the WAP and Internet protocols, whereas in the future all or most of the network services will be accessed using the IP protocol. The content, especially voice and video, will be delivered using IP packets in all networks. These applications require very low latency, jitter and delay, which can be guaranteed in the same operator network or between operators using same technology - e.g. 3g. Therefore, in All-IP heterogeneous telecommunication network systems it is critical that true end-to-end (E2E) QoS can be established and maintained. Mobility management, QoS, charging, security, privacy, etc., are critical issues to be assured in All-IP networks - all things that were not designed for original best effort in a non-secure

38

Internet. It can be foreseen that there is a great need for new standards, protocols and best practices concerning these issues in order to realise All-IP networking. The deployment of IPv6 is also critical; the address space of IPv4 is running out and the current IP version 4 does not give as good support for security and QoS as IPv6. China has chosen their own approach by establishing a new IP protocol, version 9, which should be interoperable with earlier versions. At least one, most likely several, networks will be available to users at any time. Flexible network selection and usage from applications is a difficult issue. Vertical and horizontal handover, as well as mobility between devices, will allow natural ubiquitous access to services. Networks in the home and outside, and between devices are continuously being changed and optimised by various protocols and methods without user intervention. The critical issue will be the management of this process - would it be possible for networks to communicate between each other and manage an always-on connection for a mobile user? There is still much to come in the development path for mobility. From one open network connection at a time, we will have many simultaneous connections to different services using different radio interfaces. Furthermore, when we move, the session of these open services must be maintained whilst the network connections vary. For this, multi-homing will provide one device with many IP-addresses. Device will also be able to use multiple interfaces, e.g. WLAN and UMTS, simultaneously and split traffic to most appropriate ones. Sometimes, users will be using several devices at the same time and intelligent information routing will be a key enabler in providing multi-access over networks and access types from applications in different terminals to service content. Eventually, in the ideal case, the flow mobility will manage the different streams (e.g. video and voice) separately to the most appropriate available terminal (e.g. voice to headphones and video to wall screen) that satisfies user requirement and context. The challenges are even greater for all-kinds of mobility (terminal, session, flow) when the user's Personal Area Network is connected to other PANs. As the development pushes for higher data rates by advanced compression techniques, diversity techniques and new radio interfaces, the way the TCP/IP stack works with new systems may become a bottleneck. Already today there are examples of this kind of problem - e.g. a high roundtrip packet delay triggers Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) congestion control in 2.5 and 3G systems. Solutions for further development of telecommunication systems could arise from cross-layer techniques with protocol optimisations between the TCP/IP stack. Critical issues for network technology evolution are: management of heterogeneous network infrastructure, exploitation of All-IP with IPv6 protocol, end-to-end management of QoS, security, session continuity, and operation of new kinds of networks like sensor and personal area networks.

39

4.1.9
Past/Now
Satellite Broadcast Terrestrial wireless trunking Terrestial fixed broadband wireless access systems Satellite Systems Analog T V and Radio Microwave links

Radio technology
Future/Vision
Digital Satellite systems, DBS DVB-C/T/H, DAB

Time

IEEE 802.16 W iMax

Terrestrial mobile cellular systems (Europe)

Voice oriented

NMT

G SM

UMT S 4G SDR cognitive radio

Data oriented

GPRS

EDG E TETRA

UMTS PS and HSDPA

Terrestrial local (indoor) wireless systems

Voice oriented

DECT

WLAN

IEEE 802.11 a/b/g/... IR IEEE 802.15.1 Bluetooth IEEE 802.15.4 Z igBee IEEE 802.15.3a & 4a UW B

Data oriented WPAN

IEEE 802.15.3 W iMedia Near field communication

RF ID

NFC

Figure 12. Radio technology Figure 12 presents the critical paths of the radio technology. The general trend is that the cell size of wide-area networks is getting smaller while the throughput is increasing. Wide-area communication technologies follow a path from NMT and GSP systems towards 3G variations (UMTS in Europe). New standards are emerging e.g. WiMax could be used for similar purposes as WLAN's, or as fixed wireless broadband access technologies due to its high bandwidth and communication range. Local wireless communication technologies WiMedia and ZigBee are emerging in addition to Bluetooth. In addition, RFID and NFC are used in very-short-range wireless communication, e.g. for tagged products and sensors. The roadmaps place high expectations on the development of Direct Sequence/Frequency Hopping Code Division Multiple access DS/FH-CDMA, Multi Carrier CDMA (MC-CDMA) and SDMA techniques as future radio interfaces. OFDM is seen as a very promising technique for bandwidth efficiency, but its usage may be restricted by low mobility. There are physical limits in radio access, like frequency band, that should be exploited as efficiently as possible, e.g. with frequency-sharing rules that allow different radio standards to co-exist in same spectrum. In general, it is expected that the number of network technologies will increase. The need for new network technologies will arise from a ubiquitous environment and ever-increasing amount of multimedia traffic. The increase will be most prominent in the wireless domain. Those technologies existing today will be developed further for higher efficiency. Due to the number of communication methods and the differences between them, a software-defined radio (SDR) is seen as a requirement for future terminals. SDR will allow the use of a single hardware platform for different kinds of digital communication technologies, allowing terminals to reconfigure as required by the available network conditions. Critical points for radio technology development are: more efficient usage of spectrum, development of short-range radio technologies for very high bit rate, PAN and ubiquitous use, radio interface and HW optimisation for low-power usage, and development of Software Defined Radio (SDR). 40

5 Discussion
An extensive review and analysis of the major ICT Roadmaps was carried out during this roadmap process. Comments and feedback for the work were collected from a large number of experts. Nine critical paths were created for visualizing paths from the technology-centric world to the user-centric world. Based on an analysis of the major ICT roadmaps, the most important topics have been identified and are summarized below. The envisaged development in network services and related technology enablers has been presented in Table 2. The content of the roadmaps has been classified under five different clusters: services, terminals, networks, content and security. Based on the analysis of the major ICT roadmaps and the interviews with the experts, it can be said that we are moving towards a more natural use of network services in different branches of life. This view incorporates the advancements in technologies encouraging users to collaborate and share content, and use personalized and increasingly intelligent services. As the amount of available services and content increases, there will be functions for helping the user to manage services and content automatically based on his context or profiles. Terminals are becoming more versatile and effective platforms for different applications and services. In the long term terminals and even our environment will be able to take users into account more naturally than today. Terminals will be equipped with an increasing number of radio access technologies, local connectivity will be more important, sensors technology will enable new features in terminals and user interaction technologies will help terminals to become more user friendly and easy to use than today. Power will be one of the main challenges in terminals in the coming years. In the long term software-defined radios will be embedded in terminals. A complementing view of terminal development is an approach whereby the user can communicate with digital surroundings without the terminal. Networks will develop rapidly. They are converging and bandwidth is increasing remarkably quickly, both for stationary and mobile users. Internet protocol will be the dominant network protocol. Accurate global positioning, sensor networks and personal area networks will emerge. Bandwidth is increasing towards 100 Mbps for mobile users and 1Gbps for stationary users by the beginning of next decade. There will be new enablers for local connectivity and the use of personal area networks and sensor networks will be part of people's everyday lives. Digital multimedia content will be the main traffic in future networks. As the amount of digital content will increase dramatically, there will be an increased need for solutions for more effective coding techniques, content management and rights management of the content.

41

As organisations and businesses, as well as people in general, become more dependent on network-based services and information technology, it is increasingly important that these systems and services are trustworthy. Based on the roadmaps and interviews there is an increased need for solutions and techniques to establish end-to-end security in networks and trusted services. Critical paths and critical points for mobile service technologies were identified from the material gathered from the roadmaps. None of the evaluated roadmaps included presentations of such paths. It also seems that these kinds of analyses have not previously been published on such a scale as is done here. We believe that the analysis of critical paths is one of the first attempts at clarifying the development paths of services and networks. Nine categories were chosen for more extensive analysis of critical paths: commerce, business models, services, context awareness, content, digital identity and security, mobile terminals, networks and radio technology. These critical paths were considered important on the way from the technology-centric world towards the user-centric world The main findings - i.e. critical points - discovered in the critical paths are summarized below: Commerce user acceptance of new types of purchasing commonly used, trusted invoicing, payment and authentication systems, tagged products and tag readers in terminals. Business Models The critical point for future services, especially in an all-IP environment are emergence of new business models that would provide revenues for all actors in the E2E chain, adaptation to global markets and interoperability of business actors' systems. Services - ease of use, service discovery, access to services over networks and channels, personalisation and context awareness in services, interoperability of services, functional security and authentication and management of information, possibility of using services anonymously and lower technical threshold to create services. Context Awareness user acceptance and control over automation and adaptivity, management of context information (acquisition, processing, storing, sharing and use), infrastructure support for context (sensors and intelligence in terminals and environment, presence and location information) and common standards for context information.

42

Content - development of more efficient coding methods and content description languages, storage capacity, search functionalities, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) protection and Digital Rights Management (DRM). Digital Security and identity - trusted global and local identification (biometric identification, digital signature), development of virus protection methods and SPAM filtering, improvements in network infrastructure security and anonymous use of services. Mobile Terminals - open sw-platforms and programming languages that are interoperable, interfaces to terminal functionalities, development of display technology, integration of sensors to terminals, ease of use, power consumption and heat production. Networks - management of heterogeneous network infrastructure, exploitation of AllIP with IPv6 protocol, end-to-end management of QoS, security, session continuity, operation of new kinds of networks like sensor and personal area networks. Radio Technology more efficient usage of spectrum, development of short-range radio technologies for very high bit rate, PAN and ubiquitous use, radio interface and HW optimisation for low-power usage and development of Software-Defined Radio (SDR).

43

Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the following people for their valuable comments and input to this roadmap. This work would not have been possible without comments, suggestions and workshops with the Tekes NETS programme thematic group members, especially the members of groups 1b and 3a, who are gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful that we were given the opportunity to interview experts in a number of companies and organisations who gave us valuable insight and new views on improving our work. The following people that gave comments and participated in the workshops during the roadmap process are gratefully acknowledged: Heli Kukko (Tekes), Anssi Kujala (JPEpstar), Katja Ahola (Tekes), Risto Alander (Elisa), Olli Lukkari (MFO), Mika Ruostesuo (Ardites), Jari Forstadius (University of Oulu), Mikko Jalonen TY/IT (TUCS), Timo Leppinen (Ficora), Jari Ala-Ruona (Movial), Ville Typp (VTT), Arto Laikari (VTT), Reijo Savola (VTT), Timo Prkk (University of Oulu), Jouko Sankala (Nethawk), Veli-Matti Tuovila (Movial), Pasi Viitanen (VTT), Heikki Ailisto (VTT), Esko Strmmer (VTT), Miska Kaipiainen (MEshCom), Jarkko Niittylahti (staselog), Max Bjorgren (Radionet), Kari Tilli (Tekes), Raimo Kantola (HUT). We gratefully acknowledge the following people that were interviewed for the roadmap: Risto Alander (Elisa), Olli Martikainen (ETLA), Sami Grnberg (TeliaSonera), Bjrn Melen (Ericsson), Lauri Haapanen (Incode), Timo Leppinen (Ficora), Kari-Pekka Estola (Nokia), Raija Tervo-Pellikka (HUT) and Heikki Hmminen (HUT)

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References
1. WWRF, Wireless World Research Forum, http://www.wireless-world-research.org/, 2004. 2. IST-Ambient Networks project, http://www.ambient-networks.org/, 2004. 3. IST-E2R project, http://www.e2r.motlabs.com/, 2004. 4. IST-WINNER project, http://www.ist-winner.org/, 2004. 5. Mikko A. Uusitalo, WWRF chairman, Nokia, Personal communication and draft material of Book of Visions 2003, 15.3.2004. 6. CELTIC, www.celtic-initiative.org, 1.3.2004. 7. EUREKA, http://www.eureka.be, 2004. 8. IST Key Action II FP6 preparation roadmap projects, New Methods of Work and Electronic Commerce, http://www.cordis.lu/ist/ka2/roadmap.html, 2002. 9. IST-MBnet, http://www.mobiforum.org/, 2003. 10. IST-IDEAS, www.ideas-roadmap.net, 2003. 11. IST-ROADCON, http://www.roadcon.org/, 2003. 12. Insight Research Corporation, USA, http://www.insight-corp.com/, 2004. 13. Gartner Inc., http://www3.gartner.com, 2004. 14. NETS, Tekes, Uuden tietoliikenneohjelman http://akseli.tekes.fi/Resource.phx/tivi/nets/kuvaus.htx, 29.1.2003. 15. ISTAG, IST Advisory Group, http://www.cordis.lu/ist/istag.htm, 2004. 16. IST-WWRI project, Wireless World Research Initiative, http://www.ist-wwri.org/, 2002. 17. Tekes NETS 3a thematic group documents, personal communication with Mr. Anssi Kujala JP-Epstar, Mr. Risto Alander Elisa, Mr. Jari Ala-Ruona Movial, http://akseli.tekes.fi/Resource.phx/tivi/nets/aiheryhmakuvaus.htx, 2003-2004. 18. ITEA, www.itea-office.org, 1.4.2004. suunnitelma.

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19. Mobile IT Forum, http://www.mitf.org/index_e.html, 1.4.2004. 20. Tekes, http://www.tekes.fi/eng/, 2004. 21. IEEE, htpp://www.ieee.org, 2004. 22. OMA, Open Mobile Alliance, http://www.openmobilealliance.org/, 2004. 23. ITU, International Telecommunication Union, http://www.itu.int, 2004. 24. ETSI, European Telecommunications Standards Institute, http://www.etsi.org, 2004. 25. 3GPP, 3rd Generation Partnership Project, http://www.3gpp.org, 2004. 26. 3GPP2, 3rd Generation partnership Project 2, htpp://www.3gpp2.org, 2004. 27. Fraunhofer, http://www.fraunhofer.de, 2004. 28. TELEMATICA Instituut, http://www.telin.nl/, 2004. 29. NIST, National Institute of Standards and Technology, http://www.nist.gov, 2004. 30. VTT, Technical Research Centre of Finland, http://www.vtt.fi. 2004. 31. DARPA, The Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency, http://www.darpa.mil. 2004. 32. IPv6 Forum, http://www.ipv6forum.com, 2004. 33. UMST Forum, http://www.umts-forum.org/, 2004. 34. OFDM Forum, Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Forum, http://www.ofdmforum.com, 2004. 35. W3C, World Wide Web Consortium, http://www.w3.org/, 2004. 36. Wi-Fi,Wireless Fidelity, http://www.wi-fi.org, 2004. 37. MS .NET Passport, http://www.passport.net/, 2004. 38. Liberty Alliance Project, http://www.projectliberty.org/, 2004.

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Appendix A List of symbols

2G/2.5/3G 3GPP AAA A/V ABC ACM ADSL API AMI ATM B2B/b2b B2C/b2c BAN BW CC/PP CDI CDMA CELTIC COPS CORBA CPN DAB DARPA DBS DEAS DMFC x Generation Mobile System 3rd Generation Partnership Project Authorisation, Authentication & Accounting Audio/Video Always Best Connected Adaptive Coding and Modulation Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line Application Programming Interface Ambient Intelligence Asynchronous Transfer Mode Business-to-Business Business-to-Consumer Body Area Network Bandwidth Composite Capabilities/Preferences Profile Content Distribution Internetworking Code Division Multiple Access Co-operation for a Telecommunications European sustained Leadership in

Common Open Policy Service Common Object Request Broker Architecture Customer Premise Network Digital Audio Broadcasting The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Digital Broadcast Satellite Interoperability Developments for Enterprise Application and Software Direct Methanol Fuel Cell

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DiffServ DRM DS/FH-CDMA DSL DVB D-WDM e2e EDGE EDI ETSI FDM FDMA G-MPLS GNSS GSM GPRS GPS HAVi HFC HSDPA HSI HTML HW ICT IEEE IETF IMS IP

Differentiated Services Digital Rights Management Direct Sequence/Frequency Hopping Code Division Multiple access Digital Subscriber Line Digital Video Broadcast Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing End-to-End Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution Electronic Data Interchange European Telecommunications Standards Institute Frequency Division Multiplexing Frequency Division Multiple Access Generalized MPLS Global Navigation Satellite System Global System for Mobile communications General Packet Radio Service Global Positioning System Home Audio Video Interoperability Hybrid Fiber Coax High Speed Downlink Packet Access Human system Interaction Hyper Text Mark-up Language Hardware Information & Communication Technology Institute of Electrical & Electronic Engineers Internet Engineering Task Force IP Multimedia Subsystem Internet Protocol

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IP/MPLS IPR IPV4/6 ISP IST IT ITEA ITU LAN LBS m2m MC-CDMA MAC MEMS MBnet MC-CDMA MCS MIMO mITF MIPv6 MP3 MPEG-2/4 MPLS NFC NGN NIST ODM OEM O-FDM

Internet Protocol/Multiprotocol Label Switching Intellectual Property Rights Internet Protocol Version 4 or 6 Internet Service Provider Information Society Technologies Information Technology Information Technology for European Advancement International Telecommunications Union Local Area Network Location Based Services Machine to machine communications Multi Carrier Code Division Multiple Access Medium Access Control Microelectromechanical systems A Network of Excellence in mBusiness Applications and Services Multi Carrier CDMA Modulation & Coding Scheme Multiple Input/Multiple Output mobile IT forum Mobile IPv6 protocol A standard for music compression (MPEG subset) Motion Picture Experts Group version 2/4 Multi Protocol Label Switching Near Field Communication Next Generation Network National Institute of Standards and Technology Original Design Manufacturing Original Equipment Manufacturing Optical Frequency Division Multiplexing

49

OFDM OMA OPEX OSA OSS PAN PAM PDA PHY PKI PoC QoS RDF RDIF ROADCON RoW SDMA SDR SIP SLA SME SMS SOAP SONET SS7 STB SW TCP TDMA

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Open Mobile Alliance Operating Expenditure Open Service Access Operations Support System Personal Area Network Pluggable Authentication Modules Personal Digital Assistant Physical layer Public Key Infrastructure Push-to-talk over Cellular Quality of Service Resource Description Framework Radio Frequency Identification Tags Strategic Roadmap towards Knowledge-Driven Construction Right of Way Space Division Multiple Access Software Defined Radio Section Initiation Protocol Service Level Agreement Small and Medium Enterprise Short Message Service Simple Object Access Protocol Synchronous Optical Network (USA standard) Signalling System 7 Set-Top Box Software Transmission Control Protocol Time Division Multiple Access

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UaProf UDDI UI UMTS UMTS PS UPnP UWB VAN VDSL VHE VoD VoIP VPN VTT WAP WDM Wi-Fi WLAN WPAN WWRF WWRI XDSL x (generic) XML XMPP Roaming

User Agent Profile Universal Authority Mark-Up Language User Interface Universal Mobile Telecommunication System UMTS Packet Switched Universal Plug and Play Ultra Wide Band Vehicle Area Network Very High Speed Digital Subscriber Line Virtual Home Environment Video on Demand Voice over IP Virtual Private Network Technical research centre of Finland Wireless Application Protocol Wavelength Division Multiplexing Wireless Fidelity Wireless Local Area Network Wireless Personal Area Network Wireless World Research Forum Wireless World Research Initiative Digital Subscriber Line eXtensible Mark-up Language Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol Mobile device "roams" when it changes its point of attachment to another (operator) network. Requires formal agreements between operators and is not seamless - i.e. the current session is not continued when the next operator network is accessed. Current network connection is maintained without disruption when the mobile terminal connects to a new access network.

Seamless handover

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Appendix B Summary of Company and Organisation Interviews

A number of interviews were carried out in order to validate the findings of the roadmap project. The list of people interviewed is in Acknowledgements. The following issues were raised in the interviews carried out during the process. During the past 20 years large application benefits have been based on the automation of industrial, service and business processes and EDI on top of traditional networks. There are certain strong indicators for improved productivity based on IT and telecommunication. Productivity and quality improvements, new features, and the cost savings obtained are the main drivers in adopting IP applications. The average productivity increase in Finnish industry from ICT investments has been 8-20%. The productivity increase from mobility has been 40%, so the convergence of IT and Communication is a really important issue. Regulation is an important issue with regard to various electronics services and it may have an effect on system design as well. The legislation can be seen as an enabler and high-level standard, setting boundaries for system design. Not having to do an expensive late redesign of a system must be taken into account in the early stages of a system design. The legislation can be seen as a very stable high-level standard, setting rules for service offerings. Special legislation must be implemented when needed to complement the general legislation, especially when new technologies and new ways of building services appear. For example, the Finnish Communications Regulatory Authority has stated that when an operator sells an IP call service, the call service must conform to the requirements that are in place for a traditional call. This statement is one of the first regulatory issues concerning IP calls and it has also been notified abroad. The slow and very heavy standardisation processes, like 3GPP and ITU/ETSI standardisation, will not be valid in the future. The ITU and ETSI should take the standardisation of Next Generation Networks (NGN) seriously and aim to take the IMS system as a base for NGN and attach it to access networks like xDSL or 3G. ETSI aims to establish a global partnership group for the development of NGN. In particular, China has taken the initiative in NGN development in ITU, where they are leading the End-to-End QoS signalling group part of NGN. The transition to all-NGN will take 10-20 years; in the meantime there is a mixed network of present and NGN networks. It is also likely that the major industrial players will create new common practices for "dominant design" approaches, as was the case with the development of PoC. The standardization of interoperability between different networking technologies will be an important development - e.g. applications should be able to roam between GSM/GPRS, WLAN and Wimax networks.

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The market makers are the young and children. They are used to new technologies and are interested in new things. The price for services should be small, since this user group will be first users but will have few resources. The EU has also stated that the specific categories of end users (i.e. children, disabled) must be taken into account in telecommunication systems. In traditional networks this is achieved with large keypads and screens or by feedback in telephones, emergency calls, etc., but for emergent IP-based call systems very little is being done. Since everything is to be based on IP, the services and applications would be easy to deliver and they would gain large markets. This is something that has large potential in the future, e.g. for SMEs to keep an eye on. The present mobile networks are not designed for session mobility or handovers between different operators, even with the same access technology. There are signs that handovers will work in 2007. Variable bandwidth capability in UMTS is needed. The packing algorithms need to become adaptive and related to bandwidth. It is likely that the bandwidth adaptation will be still missing in 2007 and no host identity will be available. The Internet Protocol (IP) has become the dominant design standard for new telecom services. All services and terminals will become IP-compatible. At the same time, generic network services and systems will become commoditized. IPv6 will certainly come before 2012. There are good reasons and major indications for this. First of all, in Asia there are very few IPv4 addresses and they need IPv6 to enlarge their address space. The major indication is from the USA, where the Department of Defence has committed to a complete migration to IPv6 by 2008. IP networks will be pervasive; high prices will not be charged for use of the network. Terminals will become a commodity. This will consolidate the telecom industry. Value creation will move from the network to all-IP-based applications. In the operator networks, IMS will be a platform for services. The IMS system is IPv6-based, although it will initially be IPv4-based. TCP/IP is an important standard as well as web services, SOAP and OSA/Parley, and OMA, which will become important techniques in the IP world. The main areas for mobile applications are infotainment and positioning services. The positioning information can be used in many applications for end users. The location accuracy of a few cm would be challenging but attractive. For infotainment, mobile TV is likely to be successful. People would like to use their free time with video or TV in a mobile device. Some monthly fee could be even paid for it, but not on an each-view-time-basis. For the 3G services, the software development cycle must be short, which is understood by Nokia. Voice over IP (VoIP) will soon be a major service for residential users. The users will be able to call other users via their home ADSL without paying extra in addition to the monthly broadband payment. Even the other the person-to-person communication services will be important. Synchronisation of office calendars and the familys calendars could be established. The car networks and the communication between car-to-car and the traffic

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environment will increase and improve traffic safety. Telematics (traffic information system) will emerge. Health care and security will become an important service. The number of home networks will increase and an important issue in the home is their connectivity to the Internet with broadband connections, as well the privacy and security of home networks. The connection could be terminated to some smart device - e.g. a set-top box, iTV or gateway - that would be connected to the home security and home ventilation control systems, and personal data. A lot of technologies already exist and give the possibility of creating new services, but other factors prevent their expansion (pricing, regulations, etc). The SIP-based applications could offer potential new services for residential users. Approaches like Napster, Kaza and other democratic services could also become important home-related services, although the operators seem to have strong resistance to changes in their business models. It is likely that the E2E connectivity of IP devices will create a similar boost for new services, as when SMS emerged. Old ideas with SMS may be also valuable in this new situation. M2M will be an important source of data traffic in the future. Many automatic applications will create traffic and they will be connected either though a wired or a wireless link to the Internet. M2M will be important within the 2012 timeframe. It is expensive to have people monitoring devices, so it will naturally evolve towards M2M. For peer-to-peer M2M communication, the IPv6 is an important enabler. There will clearly be more third parties that will do similar things to the present Telco's, like content and service provision. Both ways will co-exist and new brokers will appear, so the operators have big opportunities but also big challenges ahead. One model is that the transport providers will offer the connectivity and the third parties and operators will provide the services. Open interfaces between operator networks are important to have, but not to open operator networks to third parties. The charging model will depend on the application that is used. Transaction-based charging, the amount of transmitted data, or monthly payment may be used, or combinations of these. It should be pointed out that mobile payment is clearly safer than Internet payments and if it is made easy (e.g. part of the phone bill), users are likely to use mobile payment methods. The methods for charging will emerge and new possibilities for network payments, like micro payment, will appear. Although the importance of DRM is realised, there will be difficulties in introducing the use of DRM. It is unclear how DRM should be located in the networked infrastructure. The business model is unclear at present: who wants to pay for DRM. The role of TEOSTO in Finland is unclear. SPAM filters are ok, but DRM will create problems: no motivation for strong DRM protection. The rule of TEOSTO prevents the use of proxy servers to distribute the content to a larger audience in the net.

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Protection of privacy and security is important, as is security on different protocol levels. Authentication should take place from person to person. Now it is person to content. End-toend security is not enough, mutual authentication is needed. Identification with the network is not enough. Identification of the persons you are communicating with is essential, as well as the identification of the terminal being used. The level of trust and certification, including third parties, is important for ex. biometric id. The use of third-party identification is not specified anywhere at the moment. Clearly better and easier ways for user identification are needed, especially in the mobile domain - e.g. even the simple username, password typing for authentication is not a nice thing to do with mobile terminals. Biometric identification has been studied and established in some cases, but what is really needed is to integrate that with existing telecommunication systems so that it can be used in mCommerce. At present, operators use ISDN User Part (ISUP) signalling for call establishment and control between operators. Work has been started to replace ISPU with SIP, but, naturally, both systems need to co-exist for some time. Using SIP for this purpose seems to be challenging; the estimation is that roughly 30 different SIP-related specifications are needed. The scalable service platform can create monopolies too operator-centric. The direction should be to the open world. Use of a service should be easy; the user should not see what networks he/she is using. The profiles and context awareness are important. Agents are an old fashion, but they will have some role in the future. The one log-in to a network, without the need to log-in again while connecting to a new network is essential for the user. But how will the user get into the services? It is important that users are able to find services and have them in a way that corresponds to their situation. If the services are scalable and operate in many networks, the user interfaces must resemble each other, no matter where you are using them from. It is likely that push-type service discovery will be used, because of the low usability of terminals. The seamless roaming between network technologies and private and public networks could be technically realised but the major challenge probably lies in the business models - i.e. is there will to accomplish this. As yet, there is no common method for seamless handover between 3G and WLAN, even inside the same operator network. 3GPP is working on allowing the same device to connect through 3G and WLAN by interoperable authentication and charging mechanisms, but they are not very active in providing session mobility between the two technologies. Solutions that are widely used today were developed ten years ago. In that sense, now is the right time to study and develop ambient intelligence techniques. The importance of personal area and groups will grow and the communication between groups will increase. Body networks could be more suitable for BT than for WLAN. New emerging technologies are needed for body area networks. The ad hoc networks need a method to be established in a controlled way so that a group of people can communicate safely. Security issues are important there.

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One device for all will be the evolution of the mobile phone. When people want IP over Mobile, one important interoperability factor is JAVA, which is used widely both in the Internet and the mobile domain. The JAVA interoperability does not yet work properly, even with the same terminal type and different OS SW versions. A lot of work has been done and is still needed to fit TCP into the mobile environment. The mobile terminal will approach the PC, but it must be remembered that mobile terminals will never be as fast as PCs and the applications must be tailored. The power consumption of future terminals needs to be solved as well. New operating systems for mobiles will emerge in the future. One OS for terminals in 2012 does not seem likely; instead, the situation will be like today, with many mobile OSs. Frequencies up to 5Ghz are in use today. The speed is going forwards to 100Mb; the question is how many bits/hz can be transmitted in future. 2Mb is the theoretical limit of UMTS; WLAN can have a higher speed. Adaptation to variation of bandwidth and its changes is important. The SDR technology will be used in all radios. Very-short-range radios will be needed in future. The UWB has the range of WLAN. No explosion of bandwidth in the radio networks, but it can be possible in the core network. The wires will also be important in the future. Not only technologies but also regulations and public interest should be taken into account when defining this roadmap. An example is in Sweden with the "fiber-to-home" concept, where the society is involved in building and financing the network infrastructure. You should also be prepared for and adapt to the cases where "something" will pop up from some side path. Like, for instance, VoIP. The future will show whether this will be applicationdriven or technology-driven progress. In the telecommunication business, regulation has a higher impact on the business than is generally imagined. The driver of the regulation authorities is competition. The regulator thinks that competition forces actors to be more effective and innovative. The current trend on the regulator's side is the adoption of an Internet-like architecture in the telecommunication business. The main implication of this trend is the separation of data transfer and service provision. In the long term, the separation of network-operating and service-operating will highly influence business. The main consequence will be the increased pressure for convergence. Virtual operators / service operators have a possibility to provide multi-channel services when they integrate data and GSM services from different network operators. The business of virtual operators is based on the fact that the regulator forces network operators to sell network capacity to all actors in reasonable conditions. In the GSM environment business models have been quite stable for some time. It is likely that the business model in person-to-person messaging (voice, sms, mms) will remain stable. There is little room for new business models and new actors. IP-E2E operators will not have a big role in person-to-person communication. However, the situation is different in the

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corporate solutions. Actors providing data connections for businesses are also starting to provide GSM connections to the companies (can act as a virtual operator). Therefore, these actors are able to provide all communication services for companies - e.g. data services, GSM communication and VoIP calls. This phenomenon is due to the regulators efforts to separate network operator and service operator business. In this kind of business there will be a large variety of different value chains and competing business models available. Continuous change will be the state of affairs in this business. Invoicing is the major thing in mCommerce. The party collecting payments from the user will have a strong position in the value chain. There seem to be three major alternatives for an electronic payment service provider: mobile operators providing payment services for their clients, credit card companies (like VISA) and electronic money. In the mobile payments the fight will be between the mobile operators and the credit card companies. One of the most important factors in this fight is the cost of a single payment transaction. The actor who is able to provide a more effective (and low-cost) invoicing process is likely to be successful. There are two main factors in lowering the price of the payments: The amount of paper handling in the invoicing process and the recording and storing of payment transactions data. The challenges in mobile applications and services (especially applications, which need many actors providing content or service) lie mostly in business logic in the value chain rather than in the technology. System integration is a really challenging task when there are many actors in the value chain. There is a need for business system that makes the transfer of money and bits synchronized in a way that is generally accepted. Cultural evolution is needed in addition to many small developments in various technologies New business models in the ALL-IP world will be increasingly complex. Brokers making the business models look simpler for the end user have a certain time frame in which to do business. As business models stabilize, the brokers business possibilities will be diminished. The "distance" between service provider and service consumer in value chains will be shorter in the future as it becomes easies and easier for new actors to start providing services in the network. In the long term, even end users may become service providers, although this development is not realistic for the near future. Major issues in the future development of the business environment of network-based services are: shorter distance between service producer and consumer, service discovery and payment solutions. As value chains in network-based services will be shorter due to All-IP, a direct link between the producer and the consumer will be established. This development will have a great impact on business. Search engines that tackle the service discovery problem are a permanent phenomenon in the Internet. The importance of these super-hubs will be even higher in the future due to the increased amount of data in the Internet. These super-hubs are global players like Google, Yahoo, etc.

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Appendix C Summary of WWRF Book of Vision

WWRF has published its vision in Book of Visions 2000 and 2001. The next version, Book of Visions 2003 [5], will be published by IEEE in the spring of 2004. The Book of Vision is well-known and established source of future research topics all around the world. The Book of Vision is a gathered work of WWRF working groups4 divided into categories focusing on: Human Perspective, Service Architectures, Cooperative & Ad-Hoc Networks, New Radio Interfaces, Relay Systems & Smart Antennae, Short-range Radio Communication Systems and Reconfigurability. In addition, there are three special interest groups: Spectrum Topics, Security Topics and Self-Organization in Wireless World Systems.

Technical categories
The following categorisation is used to summarize the Book of Visions 2001 - i.e. Human Perspective of the Wireless World, Service Architectures for the Wireless World, Cooperative Networks and Spectrum, new air interfaces and ad hoc networking. Human Perspective of the Wireless World Communications in the Wireless World will meet (and perhaps even exceed) user expectations in terms of simplicity and functionality. Our environment should be constantly tailored and personalised to our likes, habits and situation. Users are in control. We will use the services and devices surrounding us with interfaces traditional to humans, like voice and gestures. We will be helped by augmented reality, which will provide our daily life and physical view with useful information. Applications should work with all kinds of people - the elderly and the disabled - and also take cultural differences into account. Service Architectures for the Wireless World Service adaptation and personalisation are the key issues. The user can be provided with individualized services for his actual demands based on an evaluation of profiles that describe user preferences, service capabilities and sensing information about its actual environment (context). For gathering the user information, self-learning capabilities could be used.

The number of working/special interest groups is based on the situation in 2003.

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Personalisation can be carried out at present with techniques like VHE, PAM, CC/PP, UaProf, MPEG, XML, agents, etc., but for the future Wireless World the consensus on profile format, standards and security, and profile learning functionality would be beneficial. The first context aware applications already exist today and use location information in a mobile map application. For adaptation, there is currently no common model that would allow applications to adapt dynamically to new situations (location, time, user needs, network, and terminal capabilities). It is also challenging to formulate a set of rules corresponding to the insufficient, inaccurate and sometimes contradictory information on the user. Agents may search for information on behalf of a user Open interfaces to make networks accessible to third-party service providers such as Parlay, OSA, JAIN. Novel business models and services will emerge for converged telecommunication systems based on ubiquitous wireless services. For the software development process, the standardisation is moving towards open APIs, on top of which almost anybody could create his or her own applications. Instant messaging implemented by an SIP-type of protocol may replace the SMS-type of communication.

Co-operative Networks In converged access everybody should have seamless access to all services, independent of their location and terminal type. Co-operation between different network technologies aims for seamless delivery of a range of services and applications with an appropriate delivery mode (unicast, multicast, broadcast), with agreed (pre-determined) Quality (QoS), via appropriate air-interface technology in order to achieve always best connected and to achieve a balance between cost/quality/spectral efficiency. The seamless roaming of services and terminals will utilise general authentication, charging and personalisation methods supported by end-to-end security. IPv6 will play a major role and provide a more sound technical foundation to security, mobility, QoS, etc., than IPv4. Intertechnology mobility is optimised well (e.g. in cellular networks), but does not work across different access networks. SIP provides personal mobility by locating one or more IP addresses whose use can receive multimedia stream with a location-independent addressspecific domain (e.g. changing a device without notifying the caller). This does not work for user/terminal mobility between network domains during the calls. The Mobile IPv6 (MIPv6) tackles this problem but it is not designed for real-time services. Micro-mobility solutions improve the situation for handover-related packet losses and delays. QoS is typically based on intserv, diffserv or a hybrid of them. The end-to-end QoS support is still challenging to reach since each network only deploys their unique network-related QoS mechanism. QoS mapping may be beneficial and it will be necessary to expand it to all

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system layers. Even more challenging is the maintainance of QoS with mobility. New transport-level protocols are needed (not plain TCP/IP) to support QoS. Spectrum, new air interfaces and ad hoc networking Intelligent devices will surround us. Sensors and actuators embedded in appliances and/or carried by living beings will interact between themselves as well as their physical environment. In addition, the increase in the number of mobile users and amount of data that is delivered over the air channel will require more efficient use of the radio spectrum. Frequency band is a limited resource, thus the usage of frequencies and bits/Hz/sec/km2 needs to be improved. The target for beyond 3G system bandwidth should be 100Mbps/1Gbps. Radio link performance can be greatly increased by MIMO, space time coding, multi-user detection, multi-hop links, relaying, new air interfaces like ultra wideband (UWB) and smart antenna techniques. Smart antennae (antenna arrays) are also integrated with mobile phones. Refined Multiple Access Techniques (MAC) would allow more simultaneous users to be allocated to a certain communication channel. Information compression techniques are important to develop in order to save bandwidth. The spectrum is usually reserved to respond to peak hour demands; dynamic allocation of spectrum is more efficient. Frequency Sharing Rules (FSR) allow different radio standards to co-exist in the same spectrum. One of the main goals is to achieve Software Defined Radio (SDR) terminals and base stations that can change their radio technology using only one radio hardware, while the adaptation is done with software (downloadable software).

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Book of Vision reference model

Users, application developers, service and content providers, network operators and manufacturers can efficiently and flexibly create new services and business models based on the component-based architecture of the wireless world.

Figure 13 Multi-sphere reference model 1. Level 1: The PAN, which consists of items close to our bodies, wearables, or items contained in clothes 2. Level 2: The Immediate Environment of devices nearby, such as TV sets and household electronics that offer us personalised and adaptive services 3. Level 3: Instant Partners: richer communication with people around us and communication with more complex systems, like cars. 4. Level 4: Radio Accesses: ubiquitous coverage of a wide area system - e.g. directly from PAN or via instant partners, new infrastructures like hotspots or dedicated road technologies. 5. Level 5: Interconnectivity to maintain universal wireless interconnectivity. Need for a radio convergence layer together with evolved IP transport and networking layers. 6. Level 6: Cyberworld, where we present ourselves as in reality, have access to our semantic agents, knowledge bases, communities, services and transactions.

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Book of Vision: Trends

WWRF has identified the following major trends in future telecommunication: Advance of the Internet: the Internet will become a mass medium and IP the leading network protocol. Advance of mobile communication: communication via mobile radio networks is increasing enormously. Bandwidth evolution: the available bandwidth is exploding and the prices for bandwidth will decrease dramatically. Convergence of digital industries: the converging digital industry will bring together parts of the consumer electronics, communication, information technology, media and entertainment industries. Advance of e-commerce: e-commerce will change and amend business processes tremendously. Deregulation and globalization: the I&C markets are moving quickly. Competition and differentiation are being driven by deregulation and globalization. Services and applications are key: the end user is only interested in services and applications; the underlying technology is not relevant. Reduced cost/bit

Book of Vision: Summary table

The Book of Vision 2001 was one of the first large-scale roadmaps that cleared the way towards the Wireless World in the advent of the mobile way of life. It gives research suggestions starting from user needs, a reference model of the wireless world, and gathers important enablers that need to be developed and studied. Even though it was written some time ago, it is valid in most parts since its timeframe and way of writing are not tightly bound to certain technologies.

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Table 3 Summary of WWRF Book of Vision 2001. The timeframe of the Book of Vision 2001 was towards and beyond 2010 .
Vision Our environment consists of intelligent devices and sensors, constantly tailored and personalised to our likes, habits and situation. We communicate with our environment using voice and gestures. We are helped by augmented reality, virtual reality and avatars. Services are adapted to users by profiles and self-learning Converged networks provide always-on, always best connected, guaranteed end-toend QoS and security. Networks-in-networks are like nested spheres inside one another, starting from BAN, PAN, etc. Services need to be easy to use The user is the key to understand what is needed All kinds of people (young, old, disabled) should be able to use the Body Area Networks (BAN): wearable services electronics embedded in clothing or implanted Videoconference, telepresence, VoIP Services are context aware (location, situation ...) Services are personalised and selflearning Open interfaces to services and networks for third parties; Profiling is used (learning profiles), OSA/Parlay, JAIN common profile format. PAM, XML, SOAP, UDDI, WSDL, SIP is a major service enabler HAVi, UPnP, Jini, RDF, OPES, CDI, Agent technology is used CORBA, JAVA Service discovery for all services All senses communicate without Terminals can "sense" the environment terminals HMD (head-mounted displays) Multimode (simultaneous and SDR Wearables radio accesses), multimodal (voice, Terminal profiling CC/PP, UaProf gestures, haptic-feedback), Terminals have authentication method multihoming (many IP addresses) terminals Intelligence in terminals, smart antennae Cellular networks converged with Mobile IPv6 + micromobility local and short-range networks, New transport protocols emerge UMTS, WLAN, BT, UWB, DVB, New efficient technologies to improve xDSL spectral efficiency (MIMO, new 4G air 100Mbps / 1 Gbps interfaces, UWB, OFDM, diversity PAN, BAN techniques, smart antennae, beam forming, MAC solutions, multicarrier) End-to-end QoS guaranteed, DiffServe in IP Frequency sharing and co-farming IPv6 core protocol Wireless routers Ad hoc networks Sensor networks interact with users and other devices Home networks and VHE MPEG-7 CDI New efficient information coding techniques From individual firewalls and VPN's General authentication method, AAA to security embedded to all systems in servers a heterogeneous environment Privacy of user information Novel business models will emerge Price for bandwidth will decrease dramatically Mobile communication will increase enormously Different frequency bands worldwide

Scenarios & user needs

Services

Terminals

Network

Content Security Other Factors

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Appendix D Summary of CELTIC Purple Book

The Purple Book (September 2003) version is built upon version 1, which was released in April 2003. The first part of Purple Book describes the CELTIC initiative, strategic challenges for telecommunication in Europe, other R&D forums and CELTIC budget. The technical part of Purple Book contains the following categories: service and applications, management of services and networks, multimedia, customer premises equipment / networks and terminals, broadband access networks, mobile and wireless networks, broadband transport networks, components and security. The timeframe is towards 2010, which is the endpoint of the CELTIC programme.

Technical categories
In the following, the Purple Book is summarized under four categories: services and applications; networks, terminals and multimedia; security; and business models. Services and Applications The key issues are personalisation of the services and contents according to the users preferences, the context or ambient awareness (including time, location, situation, etc.) in order to catch the usage environment and adapt the contents and services based on the device and network capabilities. Even if these topics have been researched in several recent projects, there is still no common understanding of the concepts and methods. Person-to-Person multimedia communication in general will be one of the main service areas. The user applications/services will adapt to the specific user profile in different circumstances (e.g. be silent, disconnect on low battery) and network conditions (e.g. available positioning services, available presence and context services, available billing/charging mechanisms, available local content). The scalable service platform will provide service management and charging, and inter-work with other domains. It is also open for third-party service providers to import their own services. Service platforms have to support several business models. The application server will be based on open platforms and open APIs for the creation, provisioning and delivery of advanced next-generation services. A common IP charging (not proprietary) solution is needed. IP-based Multimedia Services (IMS) will be the means to handle services using the packet switched domain. The JAVA and OMA forums will provide solutions that can be used in many environments. A short development cycle is more and more crucial for service applications - e.g. with new tools, open platforms and toolkits for developing new services.

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It will be possible to offer and charge for services with different QoS. Therefore, user applications need to be more intelligent - e.g. capable of asking the charging rates from the network. User needs concerning services should be identified. Significant improvement in the user experience and usability of services and applications is required. The advent of home connectivity and home networking is emerging. In residential areas, the important services are communications (e.g. wideband Internet access, videoconferencing), entertainment (e.g. VoD, games), digital home management (e.g. security) and home networking. Storage functionality is integrated with home equipment - e.g. to a gateway. Terminals and user premises equipment should be developed to enable good usability of services, as in the mobile domain. Some of the current services are voicemail, unified messaging, voice portal, voice browsing, audio mining, multimedia conferencing, call centre, application server, enterprise resource planning (ERP), customer relationship management (CRM), hosted web, storage, computing, IP service switch, teleworking. Networks, terminals, multimedia It is expected that the future of the terminal equipment environment will consist of distributed components that interact via self-organising home/enterprise/provider networks to offer the users an integrated experience of information retrieval, audio-visual entertainment and multimedia communication. Networks become more automated and possess selfawareness with the ability to self-configure and recover. The new ways of communicating between people in multimedia networks will be built on the three cornerstones of presence, messaging and mobility. To accomplish the converged networks vision, the roaming between operators and network technologies, and between public and private networks has to be accomplished. The mobility should be seamless between the terminal, the user, and the session. Networks will be enriched with features such as presence management, dynamic call management, advanced unified messaging services and multi-modal service management interfaces. The connection to the Internet would be always-on and be based on an all-IP packet-based multi-service networking environment. Privacy issues related to roaming need to be solved - e.g., sharing of identity/profile information, and a common authentication method is needed. The data storage and computing will be increasingly embedded in the network infrastructure - e.g. because of the personal information storage or intelligent environment. Ad hoc networks will be used in temporary situations - e.g. in a conference to build up an autoconfigurative network and as an extension to access network coverage. Their security and authentication is a challenging issue to be solved.

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The mobile phone can be seen as a "hub" that enables Internet connectivity for other user devices (PAN). Whenever the persons move, at home, in their car or in public places, the associated personal network bubbles will move with them. An overall network management is needed for the heterogeneous network environment. In addition, the networks will possess self-awareness, plug-and-play device installation, self-configuration, and repair and recovery. In customer premises the home networks can provide connectivity between home appliances. The broadband infrastructure should allow for an easy migration to 100 Mbps per user by 2008-2010. In optical high-speed networks (C)WDM, 80Gb/s can be expected in 2008 and development of single-rack Terabit IP/MPLS routers with 40Gb/s line cards in a few years. Enhanced xDSL, WLAN and cable modem will provide broadband with the last mile connectivity. It is also possible to use a low-cost (e.g. for Third World countries) novel broadband delivery over Right of Ways (RoW) using the existing infrastructure of sewers, gas pipes and drinking water pipes. This can be applied with power line data transmission or by satellite delivery (e.g. for distant rural areas). For the QoS level guarantees, there is a need for a method of establishing E2E QoS, monitoring the QoS and providing the protocol support, also considering the type of radio access. Service Level Agreements will provide a solution to arranging certain QoS between networks domains. Scalable coding could be used in conjunction with QoS protocols. As the amount of content increases, the importance of Digital Right Management (DRM) and end-to-end Content Protection techniques (CP) increases. Bit rate efficiency can be increased by advanced transmitter / receiver technology - e.g. MIMO, space time coding, (SDR) Software Defined Radio and diversity methods in general. Important radio technologies to be considered are OFDM, DS or FH CDMA, MC-CDMA, SDMA enhanced 3G, UWB, ZigBee and HSDPA (around 10 Mbps) extension of 3G. The link adaptation can provide the best modulation and coding scheme corresponding to the situation. In the upper level to PHY, the advanced MAC solutions - e.g. MAC schemes changed in-flight - may provide improved efficiency for medium access. The topic "Crosslayer-Design", already notified in 3GPP, is a promising method for optimising data transmission at the MAC/PHY level. In ad hoc networking the bandwidth usage efficiency should be improved in by, e.g., optimisation of the physical and MAC layer co-operation for this purpose. For the efficient delivery of content at the network level, the multicast technique is important. New information compression techniques after MPEG-4 (H.264 or JVT) are needed to save the bandwidth. The terminals may include new UI for security, privacy and DRM enforcements (smart card reader, biometric sensors). Novel UI methods with terminals may include tactile feedback,

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eye-control, speech recognition, audio environment awareness, tele-presence, control using physiological signals and affective computing. THE PRINCIPLES OF ALWAYS BEST CONNECTED (ABC) Seamless (and fast) session roaming between access networks: Seamless session roaming between different terminals Multiple session management through different radio interfaces Continuous quality of service and fallback solutions Unified AAA and security Heterogeneous network engineering

SECURITY In addition to user-initiated virus protection, the operators and telecommunications providers will have to develop mechanisms to prevent and mitigate attacks on their customers. Therefore, the inbound security should be taken into account for all system levels, products and technologies. Content filtering will be extended from virus detection and SPAM filtering to DRM filtering in order to ensure that the infrastructure is not intentionally used to violate authors' rights. When the user must be identified (actually in many usage cases the anonymity of the user must be assured!), the global identity management could be done by solutions based on Microsoft Passport or Liberty Alliance Project types of approaches. Common authentication architecture for security in wireless access (e.g. WLAN and its interworking with existing 3G or 2.5G) is needed. Certification of trust may be done with thirdparty certification, such as Common Criteria. Advanced cryptography algorithms will appear. User privacy protection is important. End-to-end security management is needed in all-IP connectivity. Smart cards could be used for user identification. Integration with SIM card or RFID type of functionality is uncertain. Memory should be increased to use smart cards as a data storage and application container. XML-based technologies are becoming prevalent in today's information systems and should be studied in E2E security solutions.

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Business Models In this arena it is expected that the traditional operator-led business models might be complemented and co-exist with new kinds of business models in the near future. It is expected that solutions for Service Brokering - i.e. for adding value by managing user identity, profiling and billing - and for granting access to services in a homogeneous way will emerge. At the same time, normal end users can become service and content providers; enduser groups can establish communities for sharing information and content. Some business models for traditional telco: Unbundled (wholesale) network connectivity provider Managed network connectivity provider (quality guaranteed and monitored by connectivity provider) Service aggregator, where third parties offer the services but use the charging and customer management infrastructure of the service aggregator

Figure 14 General Context of services and applications (CELTIC) A service platform consists of several service components integrated into a software integration layer and open to third parties - such as service/connection providers - to the users (via a portal) and to the operational process (via OSS/BSS integration interfaces).

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Purple Book Vision

Purple book identifies some of the targets and visions for socially responsible societies, including broadband connectivity to public administrations and schools, interactive public services, online health services and eGovernment. 10 years from now I will have a personal network around me wherever I go with access to all my services (providers) and information. All kind of devices in my home (residential) network can be safely and securely controlled by me anytime anywhere and supported by my service providers when I authorise it. The cost of the access network will be marginal (equivalent of 30 /month) and still provide my high-bandwidth access in the order of 10-100Mbps Operators can roll out multiple services quickly and affordable as each roll-out is a reuse of an existing back office process for supporting services and flexible core/metro/access networks.

Purple Book Trends

The new information society scenario is leading to a situation where the home is increasingly becoming a place of work. It is expected that residential users will, together with business, be the main sources of revenue for operators and manufacturers. Separation between service delivery and connectivity. Telco's providing transport and third parties providing services are becoming widespread The car will be a extension of the home While there used to be one distinct set of applications per network infrastructure, most of the applications will now be deployable on many network infrastructures. Networks will start to support quality of service (QoS) (one-to-one, multipoint, content distribution), security, billing, service awareness, etc. The network can also provide capabilities like location or presence. Convergence is expected between the gaming and the audio-visual industries, on the level of end-user equipment (game consoles with video recording capabilities). A real integration of communication, A/V and gaming applications will first emerge in the area of on-line gaming. New modes of multimedia person-to-person communication will emerge. Industry is moving towards using open software platforms that enable widespread applications development, Java and Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) being the key solutions. A more symmetrical bandwidth than todays ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) or cable modem is needed to deliver symmetrical data services like video

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conferencing, peer-to-peer services, SOHO (Small Office Home Office) services, home working. The bandwidth is expected to grow from the 1 Mbit/s offered today via ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) or Cable modem to 10 -100 Mbit/s in the next decade. WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network) appears to be an attractive access technology for hot spots. Satellite access systems envisage broadband deployment in areas where wired firstmile solutions fail to be cost effective. One of the main "revolutions" in person-to-person communication will be the longawaited addition of video to the standard voice stream with the development of video telephony. MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding, also named H.264 or JVT (Joint Video Team merging MPEG and ITU-T groups), is expected to become the prosperous successor of MPEG-2. Location-Based Services (LBS) are expected to provide new revenue for all the actors in the value chain In the 2004-2008 timeframe, 3G, Wireless LAN and Bluetooth will be important wireless technologies to build applications on. Bandwidth demand will increase due to multimedia services A huge potential of less progressive and/or elderly people that are less familiar with multimedia communications and multi-modal functions. Service brokering business models are likely to appear for adding value by managing user identity, profiling, billing and granting access to services The post-PC era is emerging, when not only the PC is connected to the Internet but also game consoles, Internet enabler TVs, Internet smart handheld devices, web terminals, PC tablets...

Purple Book summary table

Purple Book gives a rather up-to-date description of those topics that are important targets for R&D in telecommunication systems towards 2010. It emphasizes the need to test applications, services, network components and software in advance to verify their functionality before bringing them to market. Technically, the view is on the networks - i.e. the wireless, mobile, broadband and optical categories. On several occasions the services at home over the fixed broadband rather than the home control networks were emphasized as important fields for business. And the car was seen as an extension of the home. There are many ICT trends recorded in Purple Book, which is an important part of the book since there is are no references as to which year certain technology will/would emerge. There are also brief descriptions of some changes to and opportunities for business models for converged networks.

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Table 4 Summary of CELTIC Purple Book 2003. The timeframe is mainly towards 2010.
Vision Scenarios & user needs Services Network The user applications adapt to the user context using profiles and network services (presence, positioning, billing, local services, QoS) that allow rich communication Services in residential areas are used widely, access to the Internet with fixed and wireless broadband, user control of home appliances and their updates from service providers Networks provide all-IP packet-based, always-on access, inter-intra network roaming, network access to my "PAN bubble" - e.g. via mobile phone - with 10-100 Mbps at a cost of 30 per month Security is integrated at all system levels, common authentication and security schemes are used, virus and DRM protection is embedded in telecommunication infrastructure Significant improvement on user Normal end users become content and service experience and service usability is providers needed The terminals and applications must be more intelligent to improve usability VoD, messaging, games, IMS major service handler videoconferencing, digital home Software application cycle short management Open API's and platforms for third party Rich communication (presence, QoS value-added services positioning) JAVA and OMA forum solutions Context aware services, e.g. closing Service platforms connected to OSS phone in meeting Agents (still challenging) Person-to-person multimedia services XML prevalent SIP key enabler Multiaccess terminals (2G, 3G, WLAN, Support sensing and controlling of environment Bluetooth...), multiple sessions managed Support novel Uis, voice, gesture, tactile through many radio interfaces feedback, eye control Multimodality terminals Data storage functionality in home equipment and network infrastructure Support positioning (GPS, Galileo, EOTD, using also MIMO and smart New UI for security and authentication (smart antenna positioning) card, biometric sensors) 100 Mbps per user E2E QoS protocols, Qos guaranteed, SLA, QoS monitoring PAN networks with outer connectivity Ad hoc networks Network roaming (inter-intra technology, operators, public-private) E2E network management, MPLS, GMPLS Network self-configurability, self Improved technologies: OFDM,DS/FH CDMA, repairing MC-CDMA multicarrier, UWB, ZigBee, HSPDA, MIMO, SDR, advanced MAC, crossPositioning support layer design, link adaptation Multicast (C)WDM, HFC-based optical networks Optical core 80Gbit/s 2008 Satellite networks DRM and Content Protection (CP) New information compression techniques after MPEG-4 (H.264) in conjunction with QoS H.323, MGCP, SIP proxy adapted delivery Common authentication method VPN Advanced cryptography methods Third-party certification SPAM, DRM network filtering E2E security management, XML could be used PKI most used Smart cards with larger memory and applications Heterogeneous networks need a controlling system to function in the best way Service brokering business models will emerge

Terminals

Content Security

Other Factors

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Appendix E Summary of ITEA Roadmap

ITEA published the first version of the technology roadmap on software intensive systems in March 2001. The second edition has been under preparation since the beginning of 2004. The second version (unpublished edition draft January 2004) has been used to complete the first edition. The ITEA roadmap has been structured according to broad technology categories. These categories are: Content, Infrastructure & basic services, Human system interaction and Engineering. The first three categories are summarized in following sections. The timeframes of the ITEA roadmap are three-fold. Short-term covers the years 2004 2006, medium-term 2007 - 2009 and long-term 2010 and beyond.

Figure 15: ITEA Roadmap "Towards Convergence" Different application domains have been identified as important fields in which the technology will be deployed. These identified application domains are: Home - All kinds of activities that may be required by people in their private environment in order to achieve exchange of information inside and outside their home through and between all possible appliances. Nomadic - All kinds of activities that may be required by mobile people outside their home or working place to achieve exchange of information and, possibly, perform some tasks. It also includes any means of moving from one place to another.

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Cyber enterprise - All kinds of activities that may be required by a cluster of people who communicate with one another to achieve a common (technical or economic) goal or perform a task, regardless of their organisational or geographical location. Intermediation services & infrastructures - All kinds of activities that may be required to help the different actors accessing a network in designing, implementing, selling, maintaining and billing services Services and software creation - All kinds of activities that may be required to help the different technical people engaged in designing, implementing, verifying, maintaining and modifying software-intensive products and/or systems and/or services

Technical categories of ITEA Technology Roadmap on softwareintensive systems

The technologies in the ITEA roadmap were classified under following 4 categories: Content - deals with signal, data, information, document and knowledge from capture to complete processing. Three technology categories Infrastructure and basic services - deals with transport mechanisms and protocols, as well as with the management of the networks (including security). It is articulated into four technology categories Human system interface - deals with the interaction between the human and the appliances and systems that support the services. It is composed of only one technology category Engineering - deals with the product creation process of end-to-end services. It is articulated into three technology categories.

Content The content technology category can be considered a means for the acquisition, processing, representation, sharing and management of content. The content can also be considered on different levels of abstraction: signal, data, information and knowledge. The main trend in te content category is digitalisation. The business and industrial worlds are handled in digital format, the entertainment business moves from analogue to digital format, broadcasting transactions move from analogue to digital, and consumers self-created content increasingly in digital format. Another important trend is the appearance of sensors-based

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applications in the everyday environment. Body-wearable and environmental sensors provide new possibilities for new services. There are three main application domains in content processing: content acquisition and processing, data and content management, and content representation. The main technological challenges in these domains are: content acquisition, transformation and modification of content, managing and retrieving content while ensuring data integrity is dispersed, and heterogeneous environment and representing and structuring data whilst at the same time making the most appropriate and efficient use of resources The emergent content processing intensive services identified in the ITEA roadmap are, for example: "Electronic Multimedia magazine"; location-dependent information services where a location accuracy of 10 m is cheaper than GPS; "key finder" applications utilizing positioning and location with a few cm accuracy; "Unified messaging" providing access to any message, anytime, anywhere from any device; and "digital libraries" providing efficient searching of information, as well as agents under the users command searching various kinds of information (eBusiness, services). The increasing amount of data and information in digital format creates opportunities for new applications and services, especially when this is combined with the progress in network technology. Context-awareness and meta-data will be key to coping with the challenge of guiding the user through the massive amount of content (content without context or metadata will be of no use). Security is a major challenge. the key challenge in security will be usability and the end user's acceptance of the technology.

Infrastructrure and basic services The increasing bandwidth in backbone networks and for service providers creates the opportunity for streaming services. Wireless will be a dominant access connection in the future. People will be covered by ubiquitous networks that will enable them to be connected everywhere, be contactable everywhere and access information from any place. The challenges in the ubiquitous networks concept are related to network transport and services, resource management and security. Network transport covers technologies for carrying digital data from one place to another, including control signals. The challenges in network services mostly concern technologies for managing the dynamically changing networked infrastructure for roaming users and services. Technologies for resource management takes into account resource constraints (physical, computing, time, spatial, Herzian), or safe sharing of resources (e.g. grid computing). The purpose of security technologies is to provide safe access to data, user identification, etc.

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Certain services are identified in the ITEA roadmap. Ubiquitous networking is seen as a concept penetrating all fields of everyday life from education to the electronics business. Example services in the roadmap report are: (Tele-) education taking advantage of syncronization of multimedia content, multicasting/broadcasting audio and video clips over IP networks, and video conferencing anywhere using portable computer equipment with video conferencing facilities. This service will be increasingly used for consultation with experts. In addition, applications are suggested for the utilisation of nomadic personal profiles for use in ad hoc connections between devices, virtual reality, and virtual personal networks where the computation and processing of data is distributed in an organized way in the network. Trust will be an important factor. Trusted third-party services will be important in the future. For example, electronic commerce can benefit from these services Constrained resources like memory and storage, bandwidth, display size, time, power and network resources should be managed in such a way that an appliance, device or system is able to function in an optimal way. Terminal power management will be a critical issue. Complex distributed architectures will use new technologies like grid computing to share resources across the organisation. Dynamic resource management will become increasingly important for critical systems. User trust is a key challenge for security ("used is in control"). Security will become pervasive, and handled at all stages of the software life cycle

Human System Interaction ITEA's vision for human system interaction is simple, self-explanatory and easy-to-use multi-modal HSIs (Human System Interaction). HSI should take the user's context into account and, based on that, adapt the interaction to the user's needs. Interoperability and seamlessnes are also important topics in HSIs. There are more and more devices and services available with their own HSI. From the user's point of view this leads to a situation where he / she must learn to use a huge number of different ways to use the services. Therefore, uniformity and flexibility between different HSIs is needed. Uniformity is important across all devices - look and feel as well as behaviour. Uniformity over the underlying model supporting functional modularity as well as uniformity across cultural borders is also important (e.g. national/international train tables). There will be an increasing number of different points of user-system interaction in the future. HSIs should be self-explanatory and simple to use as the user won't want to use too much time and energy learning a new HSI approach. Taking the user's context and personal profiles into account, providing an adaptive HSI is seen as a potential approach to tackling HSI challenges.

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Regarding Human System Interaction, the domains for technology development and standardisation proposed in the ITEA roadmap are multi-modal user interaction, an adaptive and context-aware user interface and HSI creation and usability. Multi-modality includes technologies like speech recognition, speech to text, text to speech, gestures (to control applications), eye movement (to control applications), multi-user interfaces, and virtual and augmented reality. The most important technologies for adaptivity are user profiles, contextawareness (with sensors and profiles), learning user interfaces, support for multidisplay/device systems, privacy and security. Usability engineering, a platform for HSI development, HSI usability test systems and measurement of satisfaction are important topics in HSI creation and usability. There are many services and applications identified in the ITEA roadmap where HSI has an important role. These applications may become drivers for the development of advanced user interaction technologies. For example, terminals adapting to user capabilities help users to use services and applications; shared project spaces and virtual training rooms help teams in different places efficiently work together on the same task. Learning applications capturing users profiles for adapting user interfaces and advanced voice-controlled user interfaces may become part of everyday life in the future Software-intensive systems are becoming increasingly complex, and, at the same time, systems have to be used by more and more people - easy-to-use Human System Interaction is critical. In user interaction, the multilingualism, collaboration, multi-cultural and multi-user environments need to be supported. Employment of sensors may support new options in interaction. Centimetre-precision positioning of a user and his wearable equipment would allow context-sensitive information to be conveyed to/from the user. A user-driven process (as much as possible) for creating systems will increase the chance of success in building new services, applications and products. Simple, self-explanatory and easy-to-use multimodal Human System Interaction utilising context-aware and adaptive technologies, and providing seamless and interoperable HSIs, will be needed in future applications and services.

ITEA Visions
The world is etting more and more digital and more and more interconnected. The future is bringing us even more capabilities in two different, but not independent, directions related to exchanges / interactions / communication and the corresponding (and new) services Communication is becoming seamless: this implies convergence in the different networking technologies as well as in the different types of appliances The environment will become proactive: this implies that there is some intelligence or autonomy in the digital surroundings of a person

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ITEA Trends
Importance of software is increasing simultaneously with hardware development (more and more computing power, memory, bandwidth, etc, at lower costs) and ubiquitous communication. Business models are changing rapidly. There are many stakeholders, with often mutually conflicting interests, who are active on the market with different understanding and goals. Regulation, legislation, social and economic conditions and constraints are important disciplines. In access networks speed has been increasing as techniques allow creation of new services Software plays and will play a major role. SW is the heart of an increasing number of new products and services Interoperability of services will become increasingly important Digitalization of all kinds of media Convergence of digital content, services, applications, devices, etc., from the single-service single-network paradigm towards multi-service networks Internet Protocol (IP) will be a major issue Wireless becoming even more important Devices are evolving from independent self-standing devices towards integrated devices and collection of collaborating devices Convergence of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent user interface bringing us towards the Ambient Intelligence era. Need to support interoperability; services such as bridges or gateways between different networks are growing Restructuring of companies into smaller, more independently operating units increases the need for collaboration across sites and sometimes, increasingly, across companies Dramatic slowdown of progress in the bandwidth of backbone networks. This is most likely due to a lack of investment in this field Bandwidth for wireless short-distance connections will grow up to 50 Mbps in the near future Increasing number of services will be deployed

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ITEA Technology Roadmap summary table

Table 5: ITEA Technology Roadmap towards 2007
Vision Scenario s& user needs Services World is getting more and more digital and increasingly interconnected Communication is becoming Seamless: this implies convergence in the different networking techniques and appliances The environment is becoming proactive and there is some intelligence or autonomy in the digital surrounding of a person Users want to use the same Usability an important issue in all situations apps/content/services everywhere (home, (driving, walking, etc) work, etc) - support for mobility needed Increased need for collaboration between different company sites or even between companies Terminal adaptation to user capabilities Shared project spaces, virtual training room Advanced voice-controlled user interfaces Tele-education IP networks Video conferencing Virtual personal networks Nomadic personal profiles Digital video broadcasting Speech recognition: voice commands, noisy environment in multiple domains Text-to-speech conversion: monotonic synthesis, natural-sounding with intonation emerging Gestures: monitoring, directions, (games) Multi-user interfaces: 2d & 3D symbolic games and simulators Home Bandwidth ADSL ~8Mbs Symmetric Broadband xDSL Wireless Bandwidth (UMTS) - low bandwidth In-home apps Bandwidth 50Mbs File Sharing in P2P environments QoS for various network technologies Location services (GPS, GSM/UMTS) DRM Position information (std. exchange) Cheap location positioning with increased precision New or extended intelligent sensors Efficient and standardized context exchange (user profiles) Context fusion - integration of context Domain-specific meta-data standards Protection of pre-recorded content Off-line media interpretation algorithms More efficient compression algorithms / bitrate reduction - H.261/H.263 Descriptive coding of context evolution in space and time Domain-specific behaviour prediction based on actual and historical data Virtual reality Trusted third-party services Electronic trading, electronic notary Electronic multimedia magazine, internal TV Location-dependent information services Unified messaging Digital library Profiles within closed or proprietary environments Context-awareness: groups, more context, detailed presence Basic support for multi-display/device/HSI system Basic privacy and security functionality Profiles (community support and management) Automatic resource discovery in a local network Profile and network context-based service orchestration - workflow Intelligent power mgmt - increased granularity Bandwidth usage control - static Fine-granular synchronization of interrelated streams from different media sources SMIL Extended name spaces - IPv6 Universal content identifiers - CRID Sector-specific standardized descriptive models - OWL Rules for automatic reasoning about information (service ontologies) - OWL Multi-media databases - MPEG7 Search agents for multimedia Flexible configuration of access for shared content in collaborative env. File-oriented Intelligent garbage collection and management Learning-based classification of multimedia content

Terminal s Network

Content

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Certification of safe resources - devices Watermarking Authentication - single sign-on Digital Signatures Biometrics - fingerprint, voice Cryptographic algorithms Authentication - Smartcard, Javacard Intrusion detection Secured Communication - VPN Broadcast encryption Security extension for wireless Privacy anonymity Public Key management Limited modelling and testing tools for security Secure interoperability between components and web services Enhanced crypto algorithms UI adapting to users skills can help with user acceptance Other Factors Regulation, legislation and capital investment have a big impact on whether or when certain services or infrastructures become available to the public Business models are changing rapidly Security

Table 6: ITEA Technology Roadmap towards 2012

Vision Scenario s& user needs Services Convergence of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent user interface leads us towards an era of ambient intelligence Self-managing and self-organizing information and communication system - agent-based selfmanagement Any software system will be more and more a set of intelligent interacting components, which will be combined dynamically according to need Devices are evolving from independent self-standing devices towards integrated devices and collection of collaborating devices System characteristics: ease of use, safety, Backward and forward compatibility of privacy, reliability systems

Terminal s

Network

Agents under users command Learning applications capture a users profile New power sources Enhanced natural language understanding, speaker independence Natural sounding speech synthesis with intonation Gestures: interpretation, pointing Multi-user interfaces - 3D Dynamic and roamable user profiles Automatic interoperability over heterogeneous networks - towards seamless operation Pervasive IP deployment - IPv6 Wired home network - optical fibre - 100 Mbps Bandwidth of wireless access networks (e.g. UMTS) - 2MBps Bandwidth of in-home apps. 100 Mbps Optimized reliable multicasting streaming over iP Web services implemented in sensors and actuators - e.g. SOAP "Follow me apps" - P2P Negotiating agents - QoS for various network technologies

"Key finder" - applications

Context awareness in multi-diverse env. Support for multi-display/device/HSI systems - session roaming, context support Privacy & security - Multi-diverse env. trust aspects

Location services everywhere (including inside buildings) - Triangulation in GSM/UMTS Identity management: Standardized ontologies and construction of profiles Automatic resource discovery in WAN networks Agent-based configuration of network elements in home & enterprise Context-based service orchestration End-to-end service-level agreements (SLA) Dynamic bandwidth usage control Systems certification of safe resources

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Content

Security

Generic standardized exchange of positioning information Generic solution for sensor fusion from different sensors Efficient and standardized context exchange SW architectures of collaborative sensory systems Real-time media interpretation algorithms Real-time algorithms for media integration Symmetric compression for high-quality media - H.264 Single sign-on supporting dynamic configuration Bio- authentication - fingerprint, voice, iris, face Tamper-proof authentication Digital signatures

Generic behaviour prediction based on actual and historical data Domain-specific meta data standards - MXF Larger size multimedia databases Search agents for multimedia content Data mining ( e.g. on ad-hoc data collections) Task-oriented flexible configuration Harmonized DRM (in Europe, Worldwide)

Secured communication - 1-to-n & n-to-n Secure interoperability between components and web services - plug&play

Other Factors

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Appendix F Summary of mITF Flying Carpet

The Flying Carpet report visualises how future mobile communication systems are projected to be used in social activities around 2010. The report is based on 10 visions and concepts targeted by future mobile communications systems that serve as the foundation of studies performed by the Mobile IT Forum. The business models and technologies needed for realising the visions have been considered in the report. In the following sections the mITF report is summarized under the categories: Expectations of future mobile communication systems, and summary of the report

Expectations of future mobile communication systems by users and industry

Based on users expectations for 4G mobile services, the future lifestyles in which the mobile services are to be utilized, as envisioned by the users, are listed in the following section. The future lifestyles are roughly divided into four categories: 1. Enriched and cultural life - enriched life means the ability to communicate with friends and families anytime. Cultural life means the ability to receive information of your choice and easily obtain the right entertainment anytime you like 2. More flexible and diversified life - Flexible and diversified life - able to work regardless of home circumstances. An environment that enables various people to freely participate in social activities 3. More comfortable and safer life - more comfortable and safer life means safety is ensured anytime, anywhere. On the other hand, convenient and comfortable life means the ability to access services on highly convenient networks in a secure manner 4. More personal and convenient life - possible to freely select from a wide range of services based on individual preferences in personal life. Extremely convenient life is something where "what you want to do now can be done right away". General user's expectations and requirements for features and services offered by 4G mobile systems were identified as follows: 1. There are huge expectations for freedom in time, place and use of features - strong interest was shown in convenient services that can eliminate the labour spent today, and security that ensures people's health and safety.

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2. Broader bandwidth does not necessarily imply more fun and convenience - it is important to take into account users' preferences and acceptability in designing a communication systems and services. 3. "Cost" is a decisive factor for user demand - the costs of terminals and content cast a significant influence on their uptake. 4. Expectations for real communications with "people" - communication that can express emotions and feelings will likely be an important application 5. Agent feature is a must the growing number of available content and services will require automated and intelligent solutions for handling the supply. 6. 4G needs to offer something more than "faster speeds" the expectations of general users will not be met by just greater bandwidth and faster speed Industry's expectations for 4G mobile systems are listed below: 1. Expectations and requests for communications capabilities - there are high expectations for transmission speeds in the order of 100 Mbps. Certainty and stability of communication is most important in medical / disaster / transportation-related sectors. Bandwidth dedicated for public service should be secured for public infrastructure. Security of communications is indispensable, particularly for medical / settlement / content services. 2. Expectations and requests for terminal features - terminal / file specifications must be unified among carriers and manufacturers. Sophisticated features must be offered at affordable prices. Mobile terminals need to become a media for presenting product information attractively and effectively. an easy-to-use universal input interface is a must 3. Expectations and requests for authentication and other peripheral techniques advanced authentication techniques must be provided at low cost 4. Expectations and requests for authentication / billing model a billing model with a great degree of flexibility not monopolized by carriers needs to be studied. Expectations for collective management of ID/Password by third-party authentication bodies 5. Expectations and requests for revision of legal system - establishment of a legal framework for personal information protection is important. Revision of legal system is indispensable in realizing medical / administrative services leveraging IT 6. Expectations and requests on other important issues - establishment of mechanism for rights clearance is indispensable for content delivery

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mITF Technology Roadmap

A summary of the mITF technology roadmap is presented in the tables below. . Figure 16 presents a roadmap for transmission rate development towards 4G mobile systems.

. Figure 16: mITF roadmap for transmission rate enhancements towards 4G mobile systems

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mITF summary tables

Table 7: mITF technology roadmap towards 2007 (2005-2006)
Vision Mobile systems are an inseparable part of peoples daily lives in various branches of life, including. Education, Arts and Science, Business Use, Entertainment, Visual Communication, Mobile Commerce, Work, Nursing and Health Care, Emergency Medical Treatment and Utilization in a Disaster. New lifestyles will be realized by 4G mobile communication systems. People will look for an enriched and cultural, more flexible and diversified, more comfortable and safe, and more personal and convenient life Packet-switched networks will provide 2Mbps for uplink and 10-14Mbps downlink for mobile users Knowledge-sharing technologies Mobile communications are used for emergency medical treatment after, e.g., a traffic accident. Network games and music/video content downloading in mobile Freedom of time, place and use of features systems Low costs Video/picture communication between Real communication with "people" - e.g. remote places. feelings Mobile systems are used for Agent feature for handling growing number of merchandise purchase and settlement. services Personal authentication technology "Something more than Faster Speed" allows the user to securely purchase items through a network. Doctors can perform a routine health check or respond immediately based on health data sent to the hospital Mobile health checker House construction management system Medical Data provision service Inter-operation of car navigation system Location information service Food management Nursing care information service Real-time disaster information delivery service On-demand knowledge centre Mobile administration services Navigation system Mobile game gate Mobile ordering CPU clock speed 10-20 GHz Platform-free terminals: reconfigurable application core Multi-access terminals, automatic selection of interface (cellular, WLAN, Implementation of ad hoc protocols, DVB, PHS, PDC etc) convergence with SDR Speaker-independent voice recognition Feature to broadcast local information within system and mail text drafting system Equipment control and management Grouping feature for multicast within single from remote places starts with RFID in system logistics Terminals can receive digital broadcast DVB-S Practical implementation of compact and DVB-T fuel cells Wearables used by general audience Wearable terminals start being used by Commercial DMFC fuel cells general user Glass displays developed IPv6 spreading, networks linked with Mainstream move from circuit-switched IPv6, autoconfiguration network to IP and rollout of network, including voice, makes progress HSPDA 10 Mbps, WLAN 420 Mbps, MBWA Short-range communication standardisation to make progress Fast handover on IP networks, HMIPv6 PAN function using UWB available, IEEE 802.15.4 implemented in remote controllers in Adaptive service using service homes discovery and utilizing user-defined

Scenarios & user needs Services Network

Terminals

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Content Security

connection policy Compatibility of greater number of existing access systems, function for receiving terrestrial digital broadcast Standardised QoS control and AAA assured handover between same access system MIPv6 standardisation and low cost implementation to mobile phones First sensor network products Coordination between home networks, information appliances Prototype small size MIMO, MIMO is discussed in 3GPP, in mobile environment MIMO <20Mbps, MIMO WLAN standardisation Adaptive antennae in base stations Development of baseband for SDR, standardisation activities start High-quality scalable voice coding algorithms, 3D image coding Use of information broker agent Information compression techniques 510 times more efficient Advanced authentication techniques based on voice, venous and iris authentication AES, Elliptic curve cryptosystem Various business models will emerge and evolve Revisions may be needed on legislation (e.g. medical practitioners, administrative laws) Advanced, accepted and easy-to-use authentication techniques are critical

Bandwidth: mobile 5Mbps/ stationary environment100 Mbps IGMP in multicast Positioning used in WLAN UWB products to markets, replacing infrared comm. Optical networks: 40Gb/s 1 carrier, 10Tbps (WDM) Ad Hoc ntw in certain regions using new protocols and service discovery, multihop Adoption of link adaptation ACM Automatic receiving of location-dependent information Location detection accuracy of several cm (outdoor), measurement time few secs. Information delivery based on location + static information Standardised network load measurement OFDM-based WLAN/NWA Personal information stored in cellular terminals + IC cards Synchronization of data in multimedia storages between distributed systems Single sign-on in ubiquitous networks emerging Biometrics authentication in small devices + PKI IPSec and Diameter used Public sector's role in promoting new possibilities (e.g. mobile administrative services) Improved accessibility for all Standardisation activities in area of security, authentication and accounting in progress due to increased eCommerce

Other Factors

Table 8: mITF technology roadmap towards 2012 (2010-4G)

Vision Scenarios & user needs Services Terminals Data and entertainment services are used ubiquitously, anytime, anywhere independent of location and available terminals. The services are adapted to user needs. Communication is enriched with "reality feeling" in addition to plain video and voice, e.g. virtual meetings Cost is decisive factor for user demand Single terminal is used for communication, payment, keys, control of environment, data 4G must offer something more than storage just more speed Users need a more comfortable, enriched and safer life 3D virtual surround, virtual reality Software updates are done transparently P2P service discovery CPU clock ~100 GHz Common OS for terminals Automatic receiving of optimal-related information based on location Location detection accuracy (outdoor & indoor) of several centimetres, measurement time less than 1 sec Implementation of multi-band, multi-protocol terminals

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 Content Security Other Factors

Network

Enhancement of autonomous selectiontype multi-interface Practical implementations of new techniques (e.g. UWB) Speaker-dependent recognition of authentication systems Co-ordination of distrib. functions Various adaptive power supply schemes, reduction of operational voltage of IC Wearable terminals used in various fields Miniaturization to 10g, 10cc 3D screens using holography Electronic paper as a display Realisation of ubiquitous network Plug-and-Play base stations use SDR Service roaming among suitable terminals Automatic selection of an optimal radio system On the move 100 Mbps and 1Gbps for stationary end user QoS-assured handover between different access systems, Realisation of fast/seamless handover on IP networks (in fast moving environment), MIPV6+AAA Realisation of ubiquitous network Terminals support satellite digital/terrestrial digital Information collection through collaboration of agents Seamless roaming, handovers when multicasting Location tracking for fast moving networks e.g. PAN-VAN High-speed scalable content adaptation Autonomous fine-grained scalable codecs (FGS) for optimal quality for users Advanced mark-up languages (successors of XML) Emergence of compound recognition systems Connection to ubiquitous networks with single sign-on See Table 7.Table 7

Reconfigurable terminals adaptive to service Control techniques to automatically select required transmit techniques Integrated multicast feature Grouping feature for multicast over multiple systems QoS requests are conveyed to lower layers via API i.e. cross-layer design Small MIMO and adaptive arrays antennae in handheld terminals (and in BSs) Sensors and communication devices embedded in clothing Advanced DMFC fuel cells

Commonality with multiple air interface specifications, including Wlan Short-range communication carries out part of mobile communication mutually supplementing infra UWB widely adopted for PAN, IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee in object-to-object communication Network system: all-IP hierarchical architecture Ad hoc networks with automatically selected optimal transmit technique. Security and QoS assured. Beamforming, SDM, multilevel modulation DSRC, implementations on space time coding MIMO transmission rate from 100 Mbps (>250 kmh) to 1Gbps (stationary user) Optical network transmit rate 100 Gbps (1 carrier)

Information delivery based on location + dynamic information Personal information managed on the network Synchronisation of data managed in distributed multimedia storage Authentication is done automatically unnoticed by user

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Appendix G Summary of Tekes NETS programme vision and roadmap

NETS vision
The Finnish public authority Tekes published a vision report for its research programme NETS-Networks of the Future. 2005 Packet-switched transmission in almost all terminals 28kb+ (GSM/WCDMA) Multi-access terminals (GPRS/WLAN/Bluetooth) Bluetooth common with light and WLAN in heavy applications GPRS terminal positioning common (GSM, GPS) Packet-switched 512kb+ home connection popular (ADSL, HFC, Ethernet) Traffic prioritisation has been started (diffserv, less than best effort) Optical technologies increased in core and subscriber networks (DWDM, MPLS) Mobile Internet services common (MMS, WAP/WWW, mobile email) Users can connect to their files from home, at work or on the move IP-audio is popular, in fixed-line networks also real-time radiobroadcast IP packet traffic is more common (WWW push-to-talk, chat, SIP) New services are based on open standards (IETF, 3GPP, W3C, OMA)

2010 Packet-switched 100kb+ common in (WCDMA) Energy storage efficiency only tripled (fuel cells, solar panels) Multi-access terminals (WCDMA/GSM/WLAN/PAN) and networks support common

Spectral efficiency of systems improved considerably For short-range connectivity, UWB is gaining popularity (Ultra Wide Band) Nanotechnology is promising after the silicon technology has reached its limitations 4G radio standard is getting ready, if WRC2007 has allocated frequency band 10Mb+ common at homes (VDSL, HFC, Ethernet) Roaming popular for fixed-line access (home WLAN/Bluetooth devices) Optical network capacity and management established (all-optical, connectivity) 87

Contents are adapted proactively to environment (location, radio, device, user profile) IP audio/video delivery popular and efficient (multicast, QoS) VoIP popular in public networks (fixed, wireless) User controls home devices with various terminals independent of place and time Shift to pure IPv6 environment is under way Telepresence, 3D and virtual entertainment are in use

NETS thematic group 3a roadmap and vision summary

Thematic groups under the NETS programme have created their own vision and roadmap statements. In the following, the roadmaps [17] of thematic group 3a New Applications and Services are summarised. The timeframe of the 3a roadmap is between 2003 and 2005. The seamless mobility of users and services in wireless, mobile and fixed networks is the most important aspect of the vision. This is realized by IP-based applications. There is a trend towards a converged network environment. Wireless solutions in companies have been seen as a tool for improving effectiveness. Communication is becoming enriched (e.g. rich call) The thematic groups have identified the main requirements for future services. The main requirement is that services must be easy to use (e.g. by familiar UI-like web browser) and easy to charge. Also, standardised interfaces between networks, seamless roaming and overlap of network coverage are factors of high importance. A common user access and management control system needs to be developed over the open network structure. Most of the enabling technologies considered important by the thematic groups are already in existence: UMTS, EDGE (mid-term solution), IPv4, IPv6, 802.11f, 802.11e, 802.16a (WiMAX), xDSL, Bluetooth, and DVB. There are also important technologies emerging, like UWB (not yet in 2005) and new handover technologies (SW). On the terminal side, multiaccess will be a main enabler. Optimised smart antennae and MIMO technologies are important transmission enablers. The major application-level enablers are SIP/SIMPLE, Mobile IP, Extensible messaging and presence protocol (XMPP), and Universal Plug and Play (UPnP). On the service level, OMA SyncML, service platforms with open interfaces for third parties, efficient development tools for services (OSA/Parlay, CPL editor), SIP convergence service, robust business models, IMS and JAIN are the most important enablers. Mainstream enabling technologies within the timeframe until 2005 are: MMS, JAVA, WAP2.0/XHTML, DRM and Push-to-talk (PoC). Security is seen as an important factor. A common security service independent of access type would be an important service.

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There is a trend that the number of telecommunication protocols will increase, but new protocols will tend to be relatively simple. The regulation aspects need to be considered for privacy, and with EU directives. Table 9 NETS thematic group 3a roadmap summary for 2005 (comments included from Elisa roadmap, Risto Alander)
Scenarios & user needs Vision The seamless mobility of users and services in wireless, mobile and fixed networks. Applications are IP-based, trend towards converged network environment Companies improve their The services must be easy to use (e.g. by effectiveness by using wireless familiar UI-like web browser) and easy to solutions. charge. Communication is enriched (e.g. rich Standardised interfaces between networks, calls) seamless roaming, overlap of network coverage Common user access and management control system needs to be developed over the open network structure Rich calls Location services Emerging P2P services IMS Enterprise presence and messaging Multi-access terminals UMTS, EDGE (mid-term solution),, 802.11f, 802.11e, 802.16a (WiMAX), xDSL, Bluetooth, DVB, UWB (not yet in 2005), IPv4, IPv6 New handover technologies (SW) Transmission: optimised/smart antennas, MIMO SIP/SIMPLE, Mobile IP, Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP), UPnP DRM OMA SyncML Service platforms with open interfaces for third parties Efficient development tools for services (OSA/Parlay, CPL editor) IMS, service platform OSA/Parlay, JAIN MMS, JAVA, WAP2.0/XHTML Push-to-talk (PoC) LAN-WLAN-Bluetooth application level roaming 3G-WLAN roaming

Services

Terminals Network

Content Security Other Factors

Common security service independent of access type Number of telecommunication protocols increase, but they tend to be more simple Regulation aspects need to be considered: privacy, EU directives

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Appendix H Summary of AMI@LIFE Roadmap

Ambient Intelligence in Everyday Life (AmI@Life) was one of the two pilot S&T (Science and technology) roadmaps developed at the IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) of the European Commissions Joint Research Centre in collaboration with the ESTO (European Science and Technology Observatory). The AmI@Life roadmap focuses on trusted and universal access to ambient intelligence technologies within the context of everyday life, raising the potential of full IST integration in the everyday lives of ordinary European citizens. The final report of the project was published in June 2003. The summary of the roadmap in the following sections is organized based on the broad application domains analyzed in the roadmap. These application domains are Housing, Mobility and Transport, Shopping and Commerce, Education and Learning, Culture - Leisure - Entertainment and Health. As the field was already broad, work in general and other applications of AMI were left outside the roadmap. Housing Home is concerned with people, spaces, rooms, artefacts, furniture, etc. in various combinations. Home is a place for various activities, like communication and socialising, rest, relaxation and entertainment, as well as work and learning. Home Automation will take care of security, physical access control, health-care and well being There are certain requirements for domestic technologies, like wireless in-house networks, easy-to-use technologies (unobtrusive, voice interface, no-interface), integration seamlessly into the home network, context sensitivity (and personalization) for the assistance of routine tasks, authentication and privacy protection. Unobtrusiveness and multi-.lingual communication devices are also important factors. Most important technologies for housing technologies are: networking technologies, advanced and easy-use user interfaces. Technologies improving trust and security have an important role. Mobility and Transport Getting from one place to another quickly, conveniently, inexpensively, without risk to health and life, and with as little harm to the environment as possible is a vision of the AMI@Life project concerning the mobility and transport application domain.

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In order to implement the vision, the following applications are needed: traffic management systems, including traffic monitoring, dynamic routing of traffic, ticketing and control. Navigation in traffic is an important application in mobility and transport. Navigation systems require real-time (traffic) information, travel assistance and individual navigation functionalities. Safety is an important issue in traffic. In this context, safety includes surveillance of driver, car and environment. Mobile information and entertainment services are also highly relevant to the mobility and transport application field. Services in mobility and transport are communication-intensive. There is a need for different types of networks: mobile networks, sensor networks and P2P networks. There is also a need to process a vast amount of information acquired from sensor networks. Services for travellers need to be multi-lingual and easy to use with different types of terminals and user interfaces. Interoperability of multiple different systems is an important topic. There are high requirements for reliability in safety systems. The most important technologies in the mobility and transport domain are networking, microelectronics, user interfaces and system integration / interoperability. Shopping and Commerce In the shopping and commerce application domain, electronic support for shopping and integration of customers into the electronic value chain is of concern. According to the AMI@Life roadmap, there are different functionalities to be seen in the future: shopping facilities leading to better transparency of the market, personalized advertising and profiling of customer behaviour. Mobile business and commerce is seen as an important topic. Mobile catalogue services and personalized marketing and advertising will be seen in the future. Automation of order processing will improve productivity in certain functions. There are high requirements for customers privacy and the security of payments and transactions, as well as digital rights management for intangible goods. In order to facilitate mobile commerce for the public on a large scale, mass producible and cheap tagging technologies are needed. Technologies for personalisation can offer added value to consumers and businesses through personalized services. New display technologies and easyto-use user interfaces are needed. In logistics applications, networked sensors and actuators may offer improved effectiveness and better management of transport of goods. Security and trust are crucial enablers in the shopping and commerce application domain. Networking technologies as well as advancement in microelectronics are also important issues.

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Education and Learning According to the AMI@Life roadmap, the main functionalities in the application field of education and learning are distance learning, support for lifelong vocational learning and non-formal learning. ICT is seen as a means to support traditional learning habits as well as more learner-driven forms of information dissemination. The most important enabling technologies for the proposed functionalities in the application domain of education and learning are advanced knowledge management techniques, open standards and data fusion techniques, augmented reality for new forms of learning, and multi-lingual and adaptive user interfaces. Sophisticated DRM techniques as well as micro payment solutions are important for business models related to learning and education.. The most important broad technology areas related to education and learning are knowledge management, user interfaces and display techniques. Culture, Leisure and Entertainment The vision of the application field of culture, leisure and entertainment is to provide enhanced and enriched forms of services for the consumer mass market. A trend towards total experiences with blurred boundaries between culture and entertainment, information and communication is a driving force in the application domain of culture, leisure and entertainment. The application field is broad, including preservation, organization of and access to cultural heritage, new forms of creativity and art, playing and gaming, as well as sports and fitness applications and services. The requirements for services in the application field are very different from service to service. However, there are certain important technology requirements. Many services are communication-intensive, they depend on open standards, and there is a need for multilingual and multi-modal user interaction with wide variety of output media (from mobile terminals to augmented reality and flexible displays, etc). A need for adaptive and learning techniques as well as personalisation is also identified in the AMI@Life roadmap. The most important technologies for realising new services in the application field are networking, user interfaces, knowledge management and artificial intelligence. Health Health becomes a major issue in an ageing society. Development in sensors and communication allows the technical support of health functions. The aim is to allow a selfdetermined life for ill and elderly people and reduce the costs for health services. According to the AMI@Life roadmap, there are various application types to be helped by the emerging technologies of ambient intelligence (AMI). These are monitoring, consultation, information

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& education, and prediction. Monitoring, diagnosis, treatment and surgery will also be helped by AMI techniques. Functions of hospitals will also be supported by AMI techniques. Services in the health application field have the highest requirements for all applications. There is a need for the highest degree of privacy protection. Systems must be reliable and trustworthy. They must be easy to use, especially when the users are not educated professionals. Many services are communication-intensive. Bodily sensors and wearable devices with low power consumption will open possibilities for new kinds of applications, especially in preventive health care The technologies of high importance in the health domain are security and trust, microelectronic sensors and devices, networking, interfaces and power-source technologies Key Technologies for AmI Applications Since AmI can be defined as ubiquitous computing + ubiquitous communication + user friendly and unobtrusive interfaces the key technologies are subdivided into Computing (Microelectronics, Systems Software, Knowledge Management, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics) Communication and Networking Interfaces and Displays

In addition to these, support technologies are identified Trust and Security Power Sources

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Appendix I Summary of VTT Roadmaps

The publication: Communications Technologies, The VTT Roadmaps, gives the view of VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland) on the future development of selected information and communication technologies. The views are given as technology roadmaps in the following areas: Interoperability and Mobility in Future Networks Micromechanical Radio Frequency Systems Service Architectures Smart Human Environments

The work is part of a theme called Future Communications Technologies, one of VTTs strategic technology themes. The purpose of the roadmapping work is to help the planners and players direct their activities towards better competitiveness in this rapidly developing field by utilizing VTTs best expertise. The roadmap was published in 2002.

Interoperability and Mobility in Future Networks

Interoperability of networks can be divided into three levels: application, Internet and datalink. Currently, the Internet successfully hides most data-link-level details for packet traffic (i.e., WLAN, GSM, UMTS GPRS, LAN). At the application level, there are adaptation functions and gateways between the Internet and non-Internet applications (e.g., Internet phone vs. normal phone service). Here we consider the all-IP case and then cases where the networks in question are fundamentally different, such as voice-oriented networks and the Internet. In these cases a gateway containing network-specific terminations for traffic and transport mode conversions are needed. Towards the Internet an application entity will be presented, and towards a non-Internet network (say, a phone network) a phone or a PBX could be emulated. In order for application entities to interoperate over the Internet, they must be able to a) publish the network resources they offer, b) locate the network resources they need, c) exchange the messages needed to invoke the resources, d) make sense of the messages application-specific content and e) react to this content in a proper way. In nontrivial cases this means maintaining the states and state information of the applications involved.

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Figure 17. Existing and emerging network technologies (source VTT roadmaps 2002)

Figure 18. Existing and emerging technologies in the wired domain (source VTT roadmaps 2002)

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Micromechanical Radio Frequency Systems

The development of process technology has made it possible to manufacture mechanical devices in addition to the electronic ones with the size of microelectronic components, i.e. in the order of micrometers. Thus the name "micromechanics" or "microelectromechanical systems" (MEMS). This development has made it possible to make mechanical components with new functions and parameter ranges that were hitherto impossible Integratable with microelectronic circuits and mass produce them at a very low price per device. This development has generated the idea of using micromechanical devices in highfrequency systems, for instance in radio- type transmitting and/or receiving systems. Much effort has already been put into implementing micromechanical devices in radio systems. When a new technology emerges in an existing system field, the first phase is to make replacements. In this case this means making mechanical devices that imitate some microelectronic device or block in an existing system architecture.

Service Architectures
Future research activities in the area of service architectures are based on the vision of Cyber Space. In Cyber Space, a human, or any type of machine, agent or service is able to communicate in a unified way, share any type of information in a meaningful form, and co-operate anywhere in real-time using available telecommunication services. The aim of Cyber Space is to provide the relevant service in the right form anywhere and at any time the service is needed by humans, machines or agents. Therefore, the objective of the Service Architecture Framework is to support users subscribing to, and paying for, an open set of services. As a framework, the Service Architecture Framework provides a skeleton for cooperating services with an integrated set of components that can be reused and customised. The figure below illustrates the research challenges that must be tackled and solved in order to gain a comprehensive open service architecture.

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Figure 19. Service roadmap (source VTT roadmaps 2002) Device architectures should stay invisible while providing network services for various nodes. End users can only obtain the sophisticated service architecture through better, mobile, adaptive and real-time data (or knowledge) transfer. The deployment of service architectures will exploit new generations of network technologies and middleware, including SW tools, distribution architectures, design patterns, component models, etc. Currently, the Internet world mostly provides client-server applications. We believe the share of publish-subscribe and peer-to-peer applications will increase dramatically. The distribution of computation power will exploit multi-agent technologies, and the QoS (Quality of Service) requirements will employ swarm intelligence methods. Adapting swarm intelligence and peer-to-peer architectures will produce the goal: seamless hard real-time network services for mobile users (human, device, machine or agent) in a heterogeneous network environment.

Smart Human Environments

Our daily lives are gradually being pervaded by the technological advances of the information age. Soon, the strand of these high-tech products will be so interwoven with the fabric of our daily business that the patterns would be lost without it. Their presence will be taken for granted, their services matter-of-course. Still, the changes to our physical environment may be rather subtle, hiding the additional functionality in commonplace objects.

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The Smart Human Environment will completely change the way we interact with our environment and with each other. People will communicate with their technological environment naturally, using a variety of modalities and devices. The environment will be aware of and will understand the user's social, physical and situational context. The environment will be able to smartly assist the user in his tasks, based on this context awareness and knowledge of the user's behavioural profile as well as common sense knowledge. It will exhibit pro-active behaviour for recurring tasks and provide personalised information services.

Figure 20. Roadmap for smart human environments (source VTT roadmaps 2002) While reviewing the technologies enabling the smart human environment vision, four main fields of research were distinguished within the IT research: Ambient Intelligence, Smart

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Interaction, Smart Communication and Smart Information Management. Combining the results of the research in these fields is vital in order to realise the awareness, informative content and interaction that are sought for a smart environment. When reviewing the state of the art of the enabling technologies for smart human environments, some educated guesses can be made as to how this field of research will evolve. In order to create this roadmap, the enabling technologies were divided into five categories: ubiquitous computing, context awareness, positioning, personalisation and multiple modalities. A team of experts were then asked to provide some examples of applications likely to be available in 2002, 2004, 2006 and beyond.

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Appendix J Summary of WWRI Roadmap

Scenarios for the wireless telecoms market 20022010,
The scenarios focus on the societal, business and regulatory trends that will drive demand for, and the use of, wireless communications over the period to 2010. An analysis of the requirements for enabling these scenarios will lead our thinking about the technological research the industry needs to undertake. The three scenarios are: The Blue scenario: a world in 2010 where wireless is the dominant technology in connecting people and machines. The Red scenario: a world in 2010 where customers are highly experimental, and intent on finding and trying out the applications and services that best meet their needs. The Green scenario: a world in 2010 where customers primarily want to meet their basic personal communication needs, for example voice communication. The wireless world of the Blue scenario Wireless is the dominant technology in connecting people and machines Demand for accessing quality digital content on the move grows steadily Customers prefer to use simple and reliable devices Large vendors and service providers invest heavily in offering well-packaged products and services Devices and services are subsidised in the early years to maximise adoption Regulators ensure there is plenty of spectrum to meet network requirements Customers demonstrate willingness to pay more for devices and content that meet their needs Companies begin introduction of higher speed mobile networks Bigger operators, vendors and content owners dominate, though niche players do well in selling

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Figure 21. Three roadmap scenarios (source WWRI, Analysis)

The wireless world of the Red scenario Customers highly experimental Fixed broadband very successful Customers influenced by open nature of Internet Preference for selecting own content and applications Customers like specialist devices Home and office wireless networking products enthusiastically embraced Wireless connectivity the default edge of fixed network solution Vendors move to open technical platforms Strong competition leads to low prices for products and services Profusion of ad hoc networks in developed and developing markets Emphasis on ambient technologies to enable device collaboration and m2m Communication The industry fragments as new equipment vendors and service providers enter the market while system integrators increasingly challenge vertical operators

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The wireless world of the Green scenario Emphasis on basic personal communication needs Customers adopt only simple low-cost devices Deployment difficulties for 2.5/3G networks No subsidisation of new devices or services Shortages of spectrum Wireless networking limited to the business environment Demand for video telephony and video conferencing Focus on m2m and background applications to make life easier Significant industry consolidation amongst major vendors and operators and few small players Increasing emphasis on developing markets Importance of partnerships with companies in other industries

Though the three scenarios and the consequent important technologies have been presented in a sequential manner, the process of evolution in the real world may be quite different. There is very little certitude that only one of the three studied scenarios will come true in an overwhelming manner. Moreover, several other possible scenarios might have been overlooked simply due the lack of information.

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Appendix K Services and technology enablers based on roadmaps

Table 10: Summary of service and technology enablers based on main roadmaps
2007
SERVICES Communication services Messaging services, person-to-person multimedia services, rich Communication (presence, positioning), videoconference, VoIP, SIP is major service enabler, virtual personal networks, PoC services (Push To Talk), service discovery services and Medical data provision services, nursing care information service, food and weight management Internet services like shopping via fixed broadband, and mobile ordering, mobile administrative services Trusted third-party services (e.g. data mgmt), VPN service Personalized information services based on profiles, Access to existing web services (mobile and fixed) Unified messaging (access to any message, anytime, anywhere from any device), avatars-virtual assistants

2012

Health care wellbeing Electronic Commerce public services Security

Mobile health checker with sensors in clothing and with body area network components Mobile commerce (mCommerce), electronic trading, electronic notary Real-time disaster information delivery service, thirdparty certification services (trust centres), personal private network-service Personalized information services based on collaborating search agents, access to web services (mobile and fixed + agents), augmented realityenhanced services Tele-presence, electronic multimedia magazine, internal TV Location services based on accurate location anywhere, automatic receiving of optimal-related information based on location, context-aware services (context fusion), warehousing and key finder services Digital library, on-demand knowledge centres, data mining services

Infotainment services

Video services Location context-based services

Videoconference, VoD services, low-rate video calls (~0.3 Mbps) and Location information service, automatic receiving of related information based on location (e.g. navigation system), context-aware services (simple context)

Mobile education

working, Shared project spaces, virtual training room, teleeducation , enterprise network services (office VoIP calls, VPN remote work, multimedia), contact centre services , collaboration services Digital TV in every home, access home content (PC pictures, store/retrieval)

Services at home

Virtual (video-based) "visiting", controlling of smart home appliances,

TERMINALS Radio access

Terminal centered

Lower terminal dependency, also deviceless

Multiple simultaneous accesses 2G, 3G, HSDPA, Software Defined Radio, clear improvements on bits/Hz WLAN, Bluetooth, DVB-S/T, PDC, PHS, NFC efficiency Sensing of environment

UI

Traditional + voice commands, text-to-speech, Device-less interaction or low need for specific gestures (games) terminal, full multimodality: voice, gestures, natural sounding text-to-speech, speaker independency, eye control, tactile feedback, pointing, HMD, non-rigid scrollable displays Biometric identification Single authentication with terminal - roaming of authentication

Authentication/secur ity

103

Positioning

Standardised context & position format

Indoor/outdoor positioning accuracy below 1 meter in <1 second intervals Outdoor/indoor cellular positioning accuracy few meters in few seconds intervals with A-GPS. Indoor Positioning with smart antennae, antenna arrays, MIMO positioning possibility with WLAN in meter range. Pseudolite in warehouses, GNSS 10-20 GHz, DMFC fuel cells ~ 100 GHz, new power sources, advancement in DMFC

CPU, power Software Other NETWORKS Network technologies

JAVA, Symbian, OMA solutions, agent software, One operating system (OS), JAVA, agent software, downloadable sw interoperable software with open interfaces PoC, wearables are emerging Convergence emerging Sensors in clothing Converged networks

UMTS, EDGE, xDLS, HSDPA, 802.11a/b/e/f/g, Software Defined Radio with downloadable SW from 802.16a WiMax, ZigBee, PDS, ATM. UWB network, new OFDM and multicarrier technologies emerging combined with enhanced 3G, WLAN, xDSL++, Bluetooth+, DVB+, ATM, UWB Symmetrical traffic for core IP networks Symmetrical traffic in both core IP and mobile networks

Bandwidth

Mobile networks: 2 Mbps on the move and 10-14 Mobile networks: 100 Mbps on the move, 1 Gbps for Mbps for stationary user stationary user (short range) Optical networks: 40 Gbps (1 carrier) MIMO: <20 Mbps Roaming Optical networks: 100 Gbps (1 carrier) MIMO: 100 Mbps (< 250 kmh) 1 Gbps for stationary

Application-level roaming between different access Network-supported roaming between all-kinds of technologies networks intra-inter-technologies, operators, publicprivate networks. Seamless handover with multicast. Network-level 3G-WLAN roaming inside same Wireless routers are used. operator network QoS applications emerging, SLA Network-dependebt QoS mechanisms not fully interoperable End-to-End QoS, QoS-based charging, monitoring, QoS roaming, SLA

QoS

Mobility BAN/PAN Ad hoc and sensor networks Home networks Protocols

MobileIPv6 mobility In certain regions and purposes

MobileIPv6 + micro mobility solutions provide fast, loss-less handover PANs used widely in conjunction with ad hoc connectivity to other devices and networks, multihop, location tracking for moving networks, sensor networks embedded in our surroundings Virtual Home Environment (VHE) IPv6 is a base protocol New transport protocols supporting QoS

Mainly Internet connectivity IPv6 spreading, MPLS, GMPLS

Misc

MIMO and smart antennae in base stations

MIMO and smart antennae in terminals (and base stations), diversity techniques, frequency sharing, spectrum co-farming, cross-layer design Data traffic largely multimedia

CONTENT

Video coding increasingly important

Compression and MPEG-4 H.264 and its successors prominent, New 5-10 times more efficient coding techniques, FGS metadata formats MPEG-7, MPEG-21, high-quality voice coding codecs supporting QoS Enablers DRM, mark-up languages (XML), profiling UaProf, DRM and content protection CC/PP

SECURITY Authentication privacy

Security not communication

very

well

established

in E2E security management, embedded security

and SIM card, bank accounts, biometric identification, Common automatic, transparent user authentication digital signatures architecture for all networks with single sign-on to ubiquitous networks

104

PKI, VPN, DRM OMA solutions, IPSec Misc services and software

Trusted third-party certification

Enablers and open SIP/Simple, XMPP, SyncML, OMA solutions, JAVA, open standards, interfaces standards OSA/Parlay, CPL editor, MMS, JAVA, Symbian, UPnP, IMS, Jain, WAP2.0/XHTML, PoC, OSS, Agile software methods Software Fast development cycle for service and application Open API's for third parties development, Agile sw-development

105

Technology Reviews of Tekes

162/2004 ROADMAP for Network Technologies and Services. Petteri Alahuhta, Marko Jurvansuu, Heikki Pentikinen. 104 p. 161/2004 Innovaatio investointina. Osa 2. Tekesin rahoituksen vaikutukset yritysten t&k-toimintaan kyselytutkimuksen tulokset. Joonas Pekkanen, Toni Riipinen, Seppo Leminen, KTT. 48 s. 160/2004 FINE-ohjelmaraportti 159/2004 Ohutlevyteollisuuden kehittmistarpeiden kartoitus. Mikael Ollikainen, Juha Varis. 135 s. 158/2004 Microfluidics. Pasi Kallio, Johana Kuncova. 32 p. 157/2004 Proteomics Challenges and possibilities in Finland. Heini Koivistoinen, Harri Siitari. 35 p. 156/2004 Finnish Software Product Business: Results from the National Software Industry Survey 2003. Juhana Hietala. 155/2004 Globaali tietoyhteiskunta Kehityssuuntia Piilaaksosta Singaporeen. Pekka Himanen (toim.). 119 s. 154/2004 Logistiikan shkisten tieto- ja viestintteknologioiden hydyntminen Kokemuksia suomalaisista yrityksist. Jouni Kauremaa, Jaana Auramo. 49 s. 153/2004 Ravitsemushoidon kustannusvaikuttavuus taloudellinen arviointi kansansairauksien ehkisyss ja/tai hoidossa. Anne-Mari Ottelin. 37 s. 152/2004 Viranomaisvalvonta kudosteknologian tuotekehityksess. 151/2004 Toimialakehitys ohjelmistoteollisuuden vauhdittajana Uutta liiketoimintaa lhialoilta. Pasi Tyrvinen, Juhani Warsta, Veikko Seppnen. 71 s. 150/2003 Towards a Supercluster: Chemical and Biochemical Innovations Connecting Finnish Clusters. 149/2003 Managing Non-Core Technologies: Experiences from Finnish, Swedish and US Corporations Annaleena Parhankangas, Pivi Holmlund, Turkka Kuusisto. 76 p. 148/2003 Kantasolutoimiala Suomessa. Toimijoiden nkemyksi vuonna 2003. Noin 90 s. 147/2003 Innovative waste management products European market survey. Christoph Genter. 40 p. 146/2003 Elektroniikan lmmnhallinta. Simo Keskinen. 8 s. 145/2003 The Finnish Maritime Cluster. Mikko Viitanen, Tapio Karvonen, Johanna Vaiste, Hannu Hernesniemi. 187 p. 144/2003 Tracing Knowledge Flows in the Finnish Innovation System A Study of US Patents Granted to Finnish University Researchers. Martin Meyer, Tanja Sinilinen, Jan Timm Utecht, Olle Persson, Jianzhong Hong. 36 p. 143/2003 Paikannus mobiilipalveluissa ja sovelluksissa. Antti Rainio. 75 s. 142/2003 Innovaatio investointina. Osa 1. Rahoitusteoreettinen nkkulma Tekesin vaikuttavuuteen. Mika Vaihekoski, Seppo Leminen, Joonas Pekkanen, Jussi Tiilikka 141/2003 Suomen bioteollisuuden bioprosessitekniset tarpeet 140/2003 Suomen meriklusteri. Mikko Viitanen, Tapio Karvonen, Johanna Vaiste, Hannu Hernesniemi. 190 s. 139/2003 Innovaatioita metsstmss media valinkauhassa. Ulf Lindqvist, Timo Siivonen, Caj Sdergrd. 44 s.
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