Www.hidrocarburosBolivia.com

www.HidrocarburosBolivia.
com
LP Gas and Future Market Perspectives

José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
CEO. October, 8th 2009
1
www.HidrocarburosBolivia.com
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forecasts CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

about future events. Such forecasts merely FOR US INVESTORS
reflect the expectations of the Company's
management. Such terms as "anticipate", The United States Securities and Exchange
"believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", Commission permits oil and gas companies,
"plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only
similar or analogous expressions, are used proved reserves that a company has
to identify such forecasts. These predictions demonstrated by actual production or
evidently involve risks and uncertainties,
whether foreseen or not by the Company. conclusive formation tests to be
Therefore, the future results of operations economically and legally producible under
may differ from current expectations, and existing economic and operating conditions.
readers must not base their expectations We use certain terms in this
exclusively on the information presented presentation, such as oil and gas
herein. The Company is not obliged to resources, that the SEC’s guidelines
update the presentation/such forecasts strictly prohibit us from including in
in light of new information or future filings with the SEC.
developments.
2
MEDIUM/LONG-TERM OIL MARKET OUTLOOK

REMAINS VERY STRONG
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SCENARIOS
EIA/DOE High Demand

Scenario
IEA Reference Scenario
Global liquids demand scenarios

EIA/DOE Low Demand
Scenario
Actual decline
Additional Required
Natural decline Capacity (b/d)
Existing production
2020 | 42 – 51 mm
2030 | 66 – 85 mm
• The global crisis impacted down the perspectives for demand growth, but in medium/long-term
oil market outlook remains very strong
• Global oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth
3 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008, EIA International Energy Outlook 2009
WORLD LP GAS DEMAND
80
72,3
21,0%
31,0%
5,5% 62
60
6,1%
12,1% 24,3%
M illion Tons
Mexico Brazil Venezuela

Caribbean Argentina Others
40
33,9
28,1
20
18,1
11,2 10,6
2,1
0
Oceania Africa CIS Middle Latin Europe North Asia
East America America
4 Source: Purvin & Gertz

PRE-SALT POTENTIAL
• Total Area: 149,000 km2

• Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%)
• Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km² (72%)
• Area With Petrobras Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%)
5
ANNOUNCED RECOVERABLE VOLUMES IN

SANTOS AND CAMPOS BASINS PRE-SALT
Santos Pre-Salt announced recoverable volumes, can

almost double Brazilian reserves.
mi boe ~ 25-30 bn boe

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
Higher estimates
+5,400
10,000
5,000
14,093 Lower estimates
10,600
0
2008 Proven Santos and Campos Basins Proven Reserves* +
Reserves* Pre-Salt Santos and Campos Basins
(Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’s Pre-Salt
Park)** (Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’s Park)**
*SPE Criteria
** include Petrobras and Partners
6
PRODUCTION INCREASE FOLLOWED BY HIGHER

DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCT DEMAND
RNE Premium I
230 UPB (600 thous bpd) e
REPLAN thous 150 thous Premium II (300 thous
Revamp bpd bpd bpd) Others
33 thous. 2011 Dec/2012 1st phase: 2013
bpd REPAR 2nd phase: 2015
2010 Revamp Fuel Oil
25 thous 5,729
Clara bpd
Camarão 2011 Diesel
Refinery
2010
7,5% p.y.
Thous. bpd
Jet Fuel
3,920
3,655
Naphta
2,680 2,876
400
2,400
2,301 150
2,257
274 Gasoline
1,906 1,944
1,855 112
182 208
119 109 1224
1,792
901
738 771 LPG
118 179
84 89 246
250 220 255
326 332 367 419
Oil Production - Brazil
208 215 230 257
2007 2008 2013E 2020E

Oil and Natural Gas
Production - Brazil &
7
LP GAS COMSUMPTION IN BRAZIL
Domestic LPG production in 2008: 6,71 million tons

LPG Brazilian market grew 5,4% from 2004 to 2008, representing an average variation of 1,08% p.y.
Present in all Brazilian municipalities
47 million homes are attended monthly.
LP Gas Consumption (Thous. M3)

Business
16
Plan 2020
14
12
10
Thous.
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Business
Plan 2020
Industrial Residential Others
After 2009 – Business Plan 2020 estimates
8 Source: ESTRATÉGIA / EMN & ANP

LP GAS IMPORTS
Importação Brasileira de GLP

LPG IMPORTS (million ton/year)
3
• From 2000 to 2005 LPG
Importação (milhão ton / ano)
import fell due to Natural

2,5 Gas substitution and
deregulation on LPG prices
2
at the end-user;
1,5
• Imports started to grow
1 from 2005 to 2008 due to
higher domestic residential
0,5 and industrial demand
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Imports Origins (%)
Middle East;
12%
Americas; 35% Europe; 13%
Imports coming mainly from
America and Africa (2008)
Africa; 40%
Middle East Europe Africa Americas
9 Source: Petrobras
FUTURE IMPORT ESTIMATES
3
• From 2009 to 2016 - LPG imports will fall due to
PLANGAS and new refineries (Premium 1, Premium 2,
RNEST);
2,5
• Imports started to grow from 2017 on – no significant
increment in new production, despite of market
2 increasing in a pace of 1,7% per year
M illio n T o n s p .y
1,5
0,5
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Petrobras.
* Data does not consider LPG production comming from pre-salt projects
10
PETROBRAS – INFRASTRUCTURE
10 refineries PETROBRAS INFRASTRUCTURE

Petrobras Refineries 1 shale oil processing unit
Production:4,2 million tons/year
70% Petrobras /
NORTH
30% Repsol
REFAP S.A Production 0,4
million tons/year
Petrobras Participation
NE
MIDDLE
WEST
33 % Refinery of Rio Grande
SE
5 NGPUs
Petrobras Natural Gas
2 In Construction*
Producing Units(NGPU)
Production: 0,9 million
tons/year S
Refinery
NGPU
7 onshore terminals Off Land Terminal
2 offshore terminals in Terminal in Land
3rd party off land terminal
LPG Pipelines and construction
Terminals 11 offshore terminals LPG Pipeline
Ship
5 pipelines serving LPG,
Cabotage
Total extention:1.550 km
Import
11
PETROBRAS A VERTICAL INTEGRATED

COMPANY
Production
Final consumer
domestic
Distributor

Dealer
B
Storage C
D
Final consumer
bulk
Import

Petrobras is present in the entire supply chain
12
LP GAS AND NATURAL GAS PARTICIPATION IN

RESIDENTIAL MARKET
LPG Residential Market Natural Gas Residential Market

(thous. m3/y) (thous. M3/y)*
12.000 450.000
400.000
11.500
+5,4%p.y
+1,7% p.y 350.000
11.000 300.000
250.000
10.500
200.000
10.000 150.000
100.000
9.500
50.000
9.000 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Residential Natural Gas market grows significantly more than LPG

residential market
13 * Energetic equivalence between LPG and NG: 1,63m3 of LPG = 880m3 of NG

LP GAS INDUSTRY CONSUMPTION
• Strong replacement of LPG for

Natural Gas, especially in the Industrial LPG Consumption
white ceramic industry in Santa 1600
Catarina and São Paulo States thousand m3
1400 Other
Metallurgy
LPG in ceramics 1200 Ceramic
700
thousand m3 1000
600
500 Others 800

Santa Catarina
400 São Paulo 600
300
400
200
100 200
0
0
2000 2008
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
The strong shift of LPG in steel and ceramic segments is partially offset by a
small increase in the consumption of chemicals and foods.
14 Sourse: ESTRATÉGIA/EMN
PERSPECTIVES FOR LP GAS DOMESTIC MARKET
FINAL REMARKS
Difficulties:
• Use of wood as a substitute product
• Displacement by the entry of Natural Gas / LNG
• Informality in retail sector
Opportunities:
• Modernization of 18 plants for bottling system (improvement of
productivity and costs)
• Growth of internal production with reduction of LPG imports
15
For more information:

Investor Relations
www.petrobras.com.br/ri
+55 21 3224-1510
petroinvest@petrobras.com.br
16

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LP Gas and Future Market Perspectives

The presentation may contain forecasts CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

MEDIUM/LONG-TERM OIL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SCENARIOS

EIA/DOE High Demand

Global liquids demand scenarios

WORLD LP GAS DEMAND

Mexico Brazil Venezuela

4 Source: Purvin & Gertz

• Total Area: 149,000 km2

ANNOUNCED RECOVERABLE VOLUMES IN

Santos Pre-Salt announced recoverable volumes, can

mi boe ~ 25-30 bn boe

PRODUCTION INCREASE FOLLOWED BY HIGHER

2007 2008 2013E 2020E

LP GAS COMSUMPTION IN BRAZIL

Domestic LPG production in 2008: 6,71 million tons

LP Gas Consumption (Thous. M3)

After 2009 – Business Plan 2020 estimates

8 Source: ESTRATÉGIA / EMN & ANP

Importação Brasileira de GLP

import fell due to Natural

Imports Origins (%)

Middle East Europe Africa Americas

FUTURE IMPORT ESTIMATES

10 refineries PETROBRAS INFRASTRUCTURE

PETROBRAS A VERTICAL INTEGRATED

Petrobras is present in the entire supply chain

LP GAS AND NATURAL GAS PARTICIPATION IN

LPG Residential Market Natural Gas Residential Market

Residential Natural Gas market grows significantly more than LPG

13 * Energetic equivalence between LPG and NG: 1,63m3 of LPG = 880m3 of NG

LP GAS INDUSTRY CONSUMPTION

• Strong replacement of LPG for

500 Others 800

PERSPECTIVES FOR LP GAS DOMESTIC MARKET

For more information:

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