The time series shows that the raw data has a peak of 687,000 female employees and its

lowest at 638,000 female employees. This gives a variation of 49,000 female employees over the six year period.

In the decomposed series, the trend is increasing from 642,000 in 2006 to 668,000 in mid-2008, giving a variation of about 9,000 female employees a year. A drop then occurs until mid-2009 which reflects the increase of unemployment due to the effects of the worldwide 2008 recession. The trend increases again until early 20011, reflecting the recovery of the economy as businesses hire more employees to supply the increasing demand. Another cause for the increase in employment is the 2010 World Rowing Championships held in New Zealand. A drop occurs again in 2011 which reflects the effects of the Canterbury earthquakes. The long-term trend has a peak of 642,000 and a high of 675,000 female employees. This gives a variation of 33,000 female employees. Over all, the trend shows an increase in female employees of 5,500 per year. The seasonal component goes from -6,000 to 7,000 which gives a variation of 13,000 female employees. A clear seasonal cycle is evident with highest employment in the months of January to March and October to December and lowest in the months of April to June and July to September. The increase in employment is caused by the seasonal summer work due to the holidays. There is some residual activity in the series. Residuals have a range of +23,000 (from -11,000 to +12,000), but most fall in the range of +6,000. Two residuals fall out range in the mid-2007 and early 2008. This reflects the sudden increase of female employment as well as the sudden drop that occurs afterwards. The sudden increase in employment is caused by the elections for New Zealands elections of city, district, and regional councils whereas the sudden drop is caused by the effects of the worldwide 2008 recession.

A strong seasonal cycle is evident with higher employment in the months of January to March and October to December and lowest in the months of April to June and July to September. The increase in employment is caused by the seasonal summer work due to the holidays. However, in the years 2006 and 2008, the seasonal trend is different as the months from January to March have the lowest levels of employment. The decrease in employment is due to slow economic growth which eventually led to the worldwide 2008 recession. This is reflected in the long-term trend in the decomposed series. An increasing trend is indicated by the increasing gap between each years seasonal plots. From 2006 the gap between the yearly seasonal plots is significant indicating an increasing trend. Each years seasonal plot has increased over the previous years seasonal plot except in 2008 and 2010. The decrease in the 2008 seasonal plot is evident in the decomposed series as the long-term trend drops in 2008 but not in 2010 since the decrease in the seasonal plot is very little.

Predicted female employment for the fourth quarter of 2012 and 2013 are 680,000 and 685,000 respectively. The relatively wide prediction intervals in the fourth quarter; 660,000 to 700,000 in 2012 with a variation of 40,000 and 664,000 to 706,000 with a variation of 42,000 reflect that the series has potential for changes in trend level and direction. Overall there is uncertainty whether female employment will increase or decrease.

fitted lower 95% bound upper 95% bound 2012 Q1 684.2386 2012 Q2 668.2341 2012 Q3 671.0651 2012 Q4 680.4408 2013 Q1 688.7755 2013 Q2 672.7710 2013 Q3 675.6020 2013 Q4 684.9777 664.3568 648.3315 651.1359 660.4784 668.1530 652.1019 654.8780 664.1898 704.1204 688.1368 690.9944 700.4032 709.3979 693.4401 696.3260 705.7655

fitted lower 95% bound upper 95% bound 2013 Q1 9629.053 2013 Q2 10602.870 2013 Q3 10843.921 2013 Q4 10396.107 2014 Q1 9472.160 2014 Q2 10445.977 2014 Q3 10687.028 2014 Q4 10239.213 7887.327 8416.602 8276.057 7484.512 6025.936 6717.385 6686.836 5975.980 11370.78 12789.14 13411.79 13307.70 12918.38 14174.57 14687.22 14502.45