If It Keeps on Rainin, L Levees Goin G i to t Break B k

Kiran Chinnayakanahalli, PhD Raulina Wojtkiewicz

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2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

AGENDA Why is AIR developing a US Flood Model? Many ways to quantify flood risk Challenges of modeling flood How do we do it?
How do we model hazard? How do we estimate loss?

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WHY IS AIR DEVELOPING A US FLOOD MODEL?

Presidential Declarations for Flood Disasters (1964-2011)

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FLOODING IS A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO ECONOMIC LOSSES

In the US, floods causes more than $5 billion in damages each year
1) The Great Flood, 1993 ($25 B) 2) California Flood Flood, 1995 ($3 B)

4 4 2 6

5 8 1 11 3 10 7 9

3) Gulf Coast Flooding, 1995 ($5.5 B) 4) Pacific Northwest, 1996-97 ($6 B) 5) Red River Flood, 1997 ($2 B) 6) Texas Flood, 1998 ($1.3 B) 7) Northeast Flood, 2006 ($1 B) 8) Midwest Flooding, 2008 ($10 B) 9) Rhode Island Flooding, 2010 ($1.5 B) 10) Tennessee Flooding, 2010 ($2.3 B) 11) Lower Mississippi River Flood, 2011 ($7.5 B)
Source: Economic Losses from National Weather Service

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2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

ALL MODELING APPROACHES ARE NOT EQUAL

Modeling Approach
Historic event footprints

Pros
Understandable Discrete Simple Inexpensive

Cons
Deterministic, does not produce EP curve NO off off-plain plain component Deterministic, does not produce EP curve NO off-plain component Need large g sample p of p past losses Deterministic, does not produce EP curve NO off-plain component Inconsistent mapping pp g methods Physical data requirements high Incomplete view of runoff generation NO off off-plain plain component Length of time to develop model Physical data requirements are high Computational p requirements q high g

Actuarial or based on trending historical losses

Return period flood maps (e.g., FEMA maps in U.S.)

Estimates risk at location Easy to apply to underwriting and accumulation Stream flow gauge data is easily obtained Easily derived historical event footprints Scientifically most advanced Provides a full occurrence and aggregate gg g EP curve for portfolios

Probabilistic models based on river gauging station data

AIRs event-based, fully probabilistic model developed from precipitation and runoff models

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2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

CHALLENGES OF MODELING FLOOD - The hazard model should have realistic

spatial p and temporal p p patterns of p precipitation p at suitable scale spatial distribution of soil saturation accounting of lakes and reservoir attenuation

- Loss estimation should account for

location of flood defense structures and their design capacities effects of customized flood defense construction practices and design regulations spatial distribution of off-floodplain losses

- Data intensive - Computationally demanding

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MODEL FOR US FLOOD COVERS MORE THAN 2,000,000 KILOMETERS OF RIVER NETWORK
18 major river basins in the contiguous g US Every stream draining 10 km2 or more 7 6 M km2 of drainage area 7.6 2.2 M km of total streams About 8,000 river gauges used for calibration Over 4 M river cross-sections, roughly spaced every 500 m 30-m NED DTM* used for flood depth estimation

*NED DTM National Elevation Dataset - Digital Terrain Model

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AIR USES SIMILAR FRAMEWORK ACROSS DIFFERENT PERILS

HAZARD Hydrologic Model
EVENT CATALOG Event Definition Flood Routing Runoff Generation

Off-plain Off plain Hazard Assessment

ENGINEERING Damage D Estimation Estimation

Damage g

FINANCIAL FINANCIAL Contract Loss Calculations

Flood Mapping
Flood Mapping Hydraulic Model Regional X-sectional FF Cutline A l i Generation Analysis G i

Snowmelt Statistical Downscaling Large Scale Precipitation C t l Catalog

Exposure Information

Policy Conditions

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2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

COMPONENTS OF A FLOOD MODEL

1. Hydrology - Precipitation - Precipitation into runoff components

Storage in soil, snow pack etc

Flows in river

2. Hydraulics - Mechanics of flow - How water overflows banks - Mapping of flood zone

Illustration adopted from http://www.metrofieldguide.com/the-hydrologic-cycle/

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SIMULATING REALISTIC PRECIPITATION IS CENTRAL TO GENERATING A STOCHASTIC CATALOG

HAZARD Hydrologic Model
EVENT CATALOG Event Definition Flood Routing Runoff Generation

Off-plain Off plain Hazard Assessment

ENGINEERING Damage D Estimation Estimation

Damage g

FINANCIAL FINANCIAL Contract Loss Calculations

Flood Mapping
Flood Mapping Hydraulic Model Regional X-sectional FF Cutline A l i Generation Analysis G i

Snowmelt Statistical Downscaling Large Scale Precipitation C t l Catalog

Exposure Information

Policy Conditions

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AIRS INNOVATIVE SOLUTION TO PRECIPITATION SIMULATION: COUPLING GCM AND NWP MODELS 1. Couple Global Circulation Models (GCM) at global scale with a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models at regional scale to provide coherent large-scale patterns 2 Employ statistical downscaling techniques to 2. realistically simulate small scale features

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AIRS DOWNSCALING APPROACH YIELDS REALISTIC LOOKING PRECIPITATION PATTERNS

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RUNOFF MODULE TRANSFORMS THE PRECIPITATION INTO FLOWS

HAZARD Hydrologic Model
EVENT CATALOG Event Definition Flood Routing Runoff Generation

Off-plain Off plain Hazard Assessment

ENGINEERING Damage D Estimation Estimation

Damage g

FINANCIAL FINANCIAL Contract Loss Calculations

Flood Mapping
Flood Mapping Hydraulic Model Regional X-sectional FF Cutline A l i Generation Analysis G i

Snowmelt Statistical Downscaling Large Scale Precipitation C t l Catalog

Exposure Information

Policy Conditions

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AIR USES A WELL ESTABLISHED APPROACH FOR ITS RUNOFF GENERATION MODULE Nonlinear runoff generation for realistic g soil saturation Continuous water balance tracks antecedent conditions before a storm Effects of snowmelt is accounted
Precipitation (P)

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EVENTS ARE DEFINED BASED ON TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SIGNATURE OF HIGH FLOWS
HAZARD Hydrologic Model
EVENT CATALOG Event Definition Flood Routing Runoff Generation

Off-plain Off plain Hazard Assessment

ENGINEERING Damage D Estimation Estimation

Damage g

FINANCIAL FINANCIAL Contract Loss Calculations

Flood Mapping
Flood Mapping Hydraulic Model Regional X-sectional FF Cutline A l i Generation Analysis G i

Snowmelt Statistical Downscaling Large Scale Precipitation C t l Catalog

Exposure Information

Policy Conditions

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FLOWS ARE CLASSIFIED BASED ON PEAK FLOW TIMING AND RELATIVE POSITION Based on similarities between flow attributes (spatial and temporal), they are grouped into different clusters Each cluster is then named as an event

Each color represents an event

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HYDRAULIC MODEL TRANSFORMS THE FLOWS TO DEPTHS AND MAPS THE FLOOD ZONE
HAZARD Hydrologic Model
EVENT CATALOG Event Definition Flood Routing Runoff Generation

Off-plain Off plain Hazard Assessment

ENGINEERING Damage D Estimation Estimation

Damage g

FINANCIAL FINANCIAL Contract Loss Calculations

Flood Mapping
Flood Mapping Hydraulic Model Regional X-sectional FF Cutline A l i Generation Analysis G i

Snowmelt Statistical Downscaling Large Scale Precipitation C t l Catalog

Exposure Information

Policy Conditions

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THE HYDRAULIC MODEL DETERMINES THE EXTENT OF FLOOD

Flows at each link is converted to depth at every cross section 2D mapping methodology than converts the depths into flood extents
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AIR VALIDATES AND BENCHMARKS ITS RESULTS AT EVERY STAGE

100-Year FEMA 100-Year AIR

AIR hazard maps p are based on the latest flow and terrain data produced using consistent methods for the entire country

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VULNERABILITY MODULE TRANSLATES FLOODING INTO DAMAGE ESTIMATES

HAZARD Hydrologic Model
EVENT CATALOG Flood Routing Runoff Generation Snowmelt Event Definition Statistical Downscaling Large Scale Precipitation C t l Catalog

Off-plain Off plain Hazard Assessment

ENGINEERING Damage D Estimation Estimation

Damage g

FINANCIAL FINANCIAL Contract Loss Calculations

Flood Mapping
Flood Mapping Hydraulic Model Regional X-sectional FF Cutline A l i Generation Analysis G i

Exposure Information

Policy Conditions

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THE AIR INLAND FLOOD MODEL INCLUDES SEPARATE DAMAGE FUNCTIONS FOR MODELING ON- AND OFF-FLOODPLAIN LOSSES

On-plain damage

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AIR USES COMPONENT-BASED APPROACH TO ESTIMATE DAMAGEABILITY FOR ALL LINES OF BUSINESS Building is divided into key flood vulnerable components vulnerability using Each component p y is aggregated gg g g component p cost breakdown to determine the overall building vulnerability
Building and Component Damage Functions for a Retail Shop

80% 60%

Building Structure Services Fixtures and Fittings

40% 20% 0%

Mean Dam mage Ratio

100%

0.00

1.00 Building Structure

Flood Depth 2.00 Services

3.00

Fixtures and Fittings

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Overall Building Coverage

2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

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THE AIR INLAND FLOOD MODEL INCLUDES SEPARATE DAMAGE FUNCTIONS FOR MODELING ON- AND OFF-FLOODPLAIN LOSSES

On-plain damage

Off-plain damage

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OFF-PLAIN FLOOD VULNERABILITY INCORPORATES SURFACE RUNOFF AND PROXIMITY TO THE NEAREST DRAINAGE SYSTEM

Relative Runoff

Survey y of the 2011 Flood Event, , IL

Relative Elevation
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sanitary Seepage Backup Sump Pump failure Street Street Yard and Yard flooding flooding flooding
2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

Type of Flooding from Excessive Overland Flow

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SECONDARY MODIFIERS PLAY A KEY ROLE IN LOSS ESTIMATE ACCURACY IN THE MODEL

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DAMAGE FUNCTIONS CREATED TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCUPANCY, PRESENCE OF BASEMENTS, HEIGHT AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL

Basements are very vulnerable l bl t to fl flooding di since they are closer g water to underground sources The presence of a cellar also increases the risk for contents damage

One Story Retail Commercial One-Story Building Damage Function No Basement Basement Unknown Basement

-2

-1

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AIR SOFTWARE USERS CAN ENTER A SECONDARY MODIFIER THAT SPECIFIES FOUNDATION TYPES
Building detail based Modifiers Foundation 0 = Unknown/default 1=M Masonry b basement t 2 = Concrete basement 4 = Crawl space cripple wall 5 = Crawl space masonry 6 = Post & pier 7 = Footing 8 = Mat / slab 9 = Pile 10 = No basement 11 = Engineering foundation 12 = Crawlspace p - raised ( (wood) ) 0 = Unknown/Default 1,2,3= Any positive integral level of basement

Raised Crawlspace Foundation

Basement Levels

Piles Foundation

Basement Finish Type

0 = Unknown 1 = Unfinished basement used for storage purposes 2 = Finished basement used for dwelling purposes

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FLOOD DESIGN REGULATIONS ARE CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING VULNERABILITY OF THE STRUCTURES

Without Flood Regulations PRE-FIRM Flood Regulations POST-FIRM

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CUSTOMIZED SECONDARY MODIFIERS ALLOW FOR IMPROVED LOSS ESTIMATES

Elevation/Hazard modifiers Custom Elevation (CE) Elevation in feet 0 = Unknown User input value (positive/negative) to override AIR's DTM BFE elevation pertinent to the location from FEMA's FIRM maps which is the "water surface elevation corresponding to a flood having a 1% probability of being equaled or exceeded in a given year" 0=U Unknown k Height in feet above grade of the first floor in the building 0 = Unknown

Base Flood Elevation (BFE)

First Floor Height (FFH)

FFH

CE

Example of elevation modifiers

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COMMERCIAL BUILDING UTILITIES AND SERVICES TYPICALLY LOCATED ON LOWER FLOORS ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOOD DAMAGE

Positioning of services such as electrical equipment increase the lik lih d of likelihood fl loss Cleanup measures lead to i increased db business i i interruption t ti costs

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THE MODEL WILL INCORPORATE A SECONDARY MODIFIER THAT SPECIFIES SERVICES AND CONTENT LOCATION
Content and Building Based Modifiers Service Equipment Protection 0 = Unknown flood protection 1 = Protected for flood by being elevated and/or flood proofing 2 = Unprotected for flood not elevated and not flood proofed Content Vulnerability 0 = Unknown 1 = Low (a large fraction of the contents are resistant to water damage) 2 = Moderate (typical fraction of contents are resistant to water damage e.g. single family homes etc.) ) 3 = High (low fraction of contents are resistant to water damage e.g. grocery stores, restaurants etc.) 4 = Very High (almost no contents are resistant to water damage)

Example of protected ground-level equipment

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AIR TAKES A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO MODELING FLOOD DEFENSES

Data sources
FEMA Levee Accreditation Map USACE National Levee Database USGS National Hydrologic Dataset Available levee data 14,000 miles Total National estimate by USACE > 100,000 miles

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USERS CAN ENTER A SECONDARY MODIFIER THAT SPECIFIES CUSTOMIZED FLOOD PROTECTION
The secondary modifier Custom Flood Protection enables users to set up site-specific custom flood protection
Without Custom Flood Protection: Levee Overflow

Custom Flood Protection (height of the structure)

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INDUSTRY EXPOSURE DATABASE (IED) ENABLES AIR TO VALIDATE THE MODEL AT AN INDUSTRY LEVEL Data sources
NFIP insured losses PCS i insured dl losses National Weather Service economic losses Cl i Claims d data t f from Xactware X t

Low

High
Copyright: 2013 Esri

NFIP

PCS

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CONCLUSIONS AIR US Flood Model will be released in 2014

Event-based fully y probabilistic p model developed p from p precipitation p and runoff models US Flood Model is suitable for underwriting and portfolio management applications State of the art precipitation model and non-linear runoff generation approach to simulate realistic flood events at a finer resolution for more accurate loss estimates AIRs US flood model accounts for on- and off-floodplain losses to yield the most realistic view of risk Secondary modifiers, including custom flood protection features allow users to correctly model exposures

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Q&A
Modeling Approach
Historic event footprints

Pros
Understandable Discrete Simple Inexpensive

Cons
Deterministic, does not produce EP curve NO off off-plain plain component Deterministic, does not produce EP curve NO off plain component Need large g sample p of p past losses Deterministic, does not produce EP curve NO off plain component Inconsistent mapping pp g methods Physical data requirements high Incomplete view of runoff generation NO off plain component Length of time to develop model Physical data requirements are high Computational p requirements q high g

Actuarial or based on trending historical losses

Return period flood maps (e.g., FEMA maps in U.S.)

Estimates risk at location Easy to apply to underwriting and accumulation Stream flow gauge data is easily obtained Easily derived historical event footprints Scientifically most advanced Provides a full occurrence and aggregate gg g EP curve for portfolios

Probabilistic models based on river gauging station data

AIRs event-based, fully probabilistic model developed from precipitation and runoff models

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2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

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