SAARC Training Workshop On Energy Audit And Efficiency In Power Sector The Pakistan Perspective

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH THE MOST GRACIOUS AND MOST MERCIFUL

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ENGR. DR KHAWAJA RIFFAT HASSAN 27th August, 2013

POWER SECTOR - BACKGROUND

Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was formed in 1958. The major responsibilities of WAPDA were; Meet electricity demand of the country (except area of Karachi) by installing new power plants, transmission lines and distribution system. Develop hydro storage projects ( dams) for meeting irrigation and demand of the country and install hydro plants at dams locations.
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POWER SECTOR- BACKGROUND

WAPDA had: Power wing responsible for generation, transmission and distribution of power Water wing responsible for development of water resources for irrigation and power sector

POWER WING WAPDA

PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR: BACKGROUND

1. In 1992, GOP approved Pakistan Power Sector Strategic Plan for restructuring WAPDA.

1. 2. 3. 4.

Hydro Generation Thermal Generation Transmission of power Distribution of power

2. Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) was established in 1998 with mandate to restructure Pakistan Power Sector, corporatize & commercialize the restructured entities.

3. PEPCO initiated the restructuring and reform process in 1998.

4. In October 2007, GOP gave new mandate to PEPCO to reduce the load shedding in the country

PEPCO SYSTEM
1. 2. 3. 4. Hydro Generation Thermal Generation Transmission Distribution

GENERATING CAPACITY

(June 2012)

(Remains with WAPDA)

Type of Generation

4 GENCOs 1 NTDC 10 DISCOs

Availability (MW) Nameplate/ Dependable Installed Capacity Capacity Summer Winter (MW) (MW)

Hydro GENCOs IPPs (incl Nuclear) Rental Total *

6627 4829 8959

6627 3580 8342

6500 2780 6950

2300* 3222** 7578**

20415

18450

16320

13100

Hydro availability based on last 5 years average ** Excludes 10% Forced Outages for GENCOs & 6.0% for IPPs

Existing NTDC Transmission Network

NTDC Transmission System Data

NTDC 500 kV SYSTEM
1. 2. Grid Stations Transmission Lines 14 Nos., Total Capacity = 14,850 MVA Total Lengths = 5078 km

NTDC 220 kV SYSTEM

1. 2. Grid Stations Transmission Lines 29 Nos., Total Capacity =16,494 MVA Total Lengths = 7427 km

* All the above data has been taken from Electricity Marketing Data (36th Issue)

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Generation Mix %age

Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Hydel 50% 34% 35% 32% 32% Thermal 50% 66% 65% 68% 68%

GENERATION Mix for June 2012

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PEPCO SYSTEM HISTORICAL SURPLUS / DEFICIT

Years 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Available Capability Computed Peak Demand Surplus/ Shortfall

Load Forecast NTDC, KESC and Country (MW)

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Note

10894 10958 11834 12792 12600 13292 12442 13637 13445 13193 13733

10459 11044 11598 12595 13847 15838 17398 17852 18467 18521 20058

435 -86 236 197 -1247 -2546 -4956 -4215 -5022 -5328 -6325
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NTDC 19400 20401 21556 22761 24018 25352 26810 28353 30036 31757

KESC 3021 3240 3484 3762 4157 4592 5067 5587 6144 6752

Country 22199 23407 24792 26261 27896 29647 31562 33604 35822 38127

Diversity Factor 1.01 is applied to get country demand NTDC demand is PMS based prepared in March 2012 KESC demand is Regression Based prepared in January 2011
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NATIONAL POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION PLAN (NPSEP) 2030 INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY
Hydro Thermal gas Thermal oil Thermal coal Bagass and Bio Waste Plants Nuclear Wind Imports Total PEPCO SYSTEM *KESC SYSTEM 2010-11 (MW) (%) 6,555 28% 7,200 8,471 150 31% 37% 1% 2020-21 (MW) (%) 17,590 30% 11,242 7,056 15,691 100 3,187 1,800 2,000 58,866 19% 12% 27% 0.20% 5% 3% 3% 100% 58,281 585 2029-30 (MW) (%) 41,546 37% 12,015 6,855 37,774 11% 6% 34%

NPSEP 2030-GENERATION Mix by the Year of 2029 - 2030

Wind, 5,400 MW, 5% Imports, 2,000 MW, 2%

Nuclear, 6,947 MW, 6%

Hydro , 41,546 MW, 37%

0 0% 803 3% 0 0% 0 0% 23,179 100% 21,021 2,158

100 0.10% 6,947 6% 5,400 5% 2,000 2% 112,639 100% 112,639 0

Thermal caol, 37,875 MW, 33% Thermal gas, 12,015 MW, 11%
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*KESC has following committed generation projects: 1. Bin Qasim CC, 560MW 2. Bin Qasim Retrofit Project, 420MW 3. KESC Bio Waste to Energy Project 25MW

Thermal oil, 6,855 MW, 6%

DISTRIBUTION COMPANY LOSSES (132KV & Below System)

2011-12

NPSEP 2030-GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN

2010-11
DEMAND-SUPPLY POSITION (COUNTRY)
Peak load
100,000

%age Losses
Lost

DISCOs
Recvd

UNITS (MkWh) Billed

2011-12

2010-11

Inc/ dec (%)

Effective Capacity

LESCO GEPCO

16727 6960 9631 8330 12453 13137 4679 4408 5164 81489

14467 6178 8580 7537 10218 8528 3381 2666 4086 65641

2260 782 1051 793 2235 4609 1298 1742 1078 15848

13.51 11.24 10.91 9.52 17.94 30.27 27.73 39.51 20.87 19.5

13.3 12.0 11.2 9.8 18.3 35.2 27.2 41.0 20.8 19.6

0.2 -0.76 -1.3 - 0.3 - 0.4 -5 0.5 - 1.5 0.1 - 0.1

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90,000

FESCO IESCO MEPCO PESCO+ TESCO

80,000

70,000
MW

60,000

HESCO
50,000

SEPCO QESCO

40,000

30,000

DISCOS Total

20,000
2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 2016 -17 2017-18 2018-19 2019 -20 2020 -21 2021-22 2022 -23 2023 -24 2024 -25 2025 -26 2026 -27 2027 -28 2028 -29 2029 -30

Based on Power System Statistics 37th edition (NPP NTDC)

Year

SERIOUS CONCERNS
The generation of additional 25000 MW in next 10 years requires about 50 billion US$. Generation though fossil fuels is very expensive as compared to indigenous hydro generation Domestic gas reserves are sharply depleting. The present shortfall of gas is of 25% and by year 2019-20 the gas shortfall will increase to 66 % if more gas reserves are not explored.
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CONCLUSION
The restructuring of Generation, Transmission and Distribution companies be completed on war footing basis to eliminate uncertainty amongst stakeholders Generation mix should be shifted towards less expensive hydro units to reduce subsidies and provide relief to consumer and government New generation should be planned near load centers to avoid Transmission & Distribution losses
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CONCLUSION
Distribution losses should be reduced to permissible level by up-gradation of power system and elimination of power theft Demand side management program be introduced by educating the utility employees and consumers through awareness program to adopt and use energy efficient devices

THANKS
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