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DAILY MCX NEWSLETTER

26 - FEB.-2014

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BULLION:
Silver may witness moderate gains in first half of 2014 as US Fed tapering and slowdown in China will impact market sentiments in the precious industrial metal, according to Nirmal Bang Commodities & FX Year Book 2014. Silver prices have fallen sharply from $32/ounce to $18.50/ounce, a correction of more than 40% in a year. Silver has higher beta than gold, thus in line with correction in gold, silver too crashed in 2013. The major fundamental reasons for correction in silver were massive surplus, diminishing demand prospects and correction in gold prices. Silver market is in a major surplus since the start of 2012 and it continues to surge. Surplus in silver has been growing at a rapid pace since the start of 2012. The total cash cost of silver mines is expected to be around $9/ounce. But since only 23% total silver production comes from direct silver mine, its unimportant.

BASE METAL:
LME Inventory data: Nickel stocks the lone gainer. Aluminium, Copper and Zinc stocks recorded a decline by 6575, 3325, 4800 tons respectively. Nickel stocks at London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 306 tons to 268458 tons. While there was no changes in inventories of Lead at LME on Tuesday. Aluminium, Copper and Zinc stocks recorded a decline by 6575, 3325, 4800 tons respectively.

ENERGY:
Crude oil for active April contract at NYMEX was trading on a weaker note as per the latest update with the commodity losing near 1% to $101.8 per barrel. In Indian markets we feel traders lost 1.2% to Rs 6325 per barrel with moderately higher losses coming in India led by Rupee depreciation locally. Overall we had a selling view in the morning on cues that the winter outlook in the US was seeing a moderate downtick if we follow the update from the countrys Climate Prediction Centre. Also the backwardation for the commodity reduced down to near 75 cents lately as against a Dollar in the last week and suggesting that high near term demand for the commodity was slowly receding.

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BULLION

GOLD (5 MAR.)
OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - BULLISH : - 30350, 30500 : - 30100, 29900 : - BUY ON DIPS

SILVER (5 MAR.)
OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - BULLISH : - 48000, 48350 : - 47500, 47300 : - BUY ON DIPS

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ENERGY

CRUDEOIL (19 MAR.)


OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 6350, 6400 : - 6300, 6250 : - BUY ON DIPS

NATURAL GAS (25 FEB.)


OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 310.00, 320.00 : - 290.00, 280.00 : - SELL ON HIGH

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BASE METAL

COPPER (28 FEB.)


OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 446.00, 448.00 : - 442.00, 440.00 : - SELL ON HIGH

LEAD (28 FEB.)


OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 131.00, 132.00 : - 129.50, 128.50 : - SELL ON HIGH

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ZINC (28 FEB.)


OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 128.50, 129.50 : - 127.00, 126.00 : - SELL ON HIGH

ALUMINUM (28 FEB.)


OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 108.00, 109.00 : - 106.00, 104.60 : - SELL ON HIGH

NICKEL (28 FEB.)


OUTLOOK:
TREND RESISTANCE SUPPORT STRATEGY : - CONSOLIDATE : - 895.00, 910.00 : - 870.00, 855.00 : - SELL ON HIGH

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GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDEOIL PALLANDIUM PLATINUM

1340.64 21.881 3.257 101.78 734.40 1436.40

USDINR EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD

62.2175 01.3740 102.311 00.8873 01.6675 01.1094

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