Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering

University of Alberta
Biao Huang, PhD, PEng, Professor
NSERC Senior Industrial Research Chair in Control of Oil Sands Processes
Work and slides contributed by: S. Khatibisepehr, Y. Miao, X. Shao, L. Xie, Y.
Zhao, Y. Wang, J . Deng, S. Khare, E. Naghoosi, Y. Shardt, M. Alemohammad
March 14, 2012
Control in Oil Sands Processes
- Innovative Inferential Sensor Solutions
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Outline
Our oil sands control research program overview
Industrial Research Chair in Oil Sands Control
Inferential sensor Introduction
Industrial application examples
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Industrial Research Programs
NSERC strategic grant project in Optimization of Process
Automation Systems
NSERC Industrial Research Chair (IRC) program in
Control of Oil Sands Processes
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Challenges facing oil sands control
harsh operating environment - reliability of instruments.
unique process such as oil sands no common solutions.
lack of key measurements, irregular and missing data, bad readings,
and outliers need of inferential sensors
a large amount of routine operating data lack of tools for efficient
use.
requirement of no or minimum disruptions to operation - minimum
intrusive test or use of routine operating data.
hard constraints, non-Gaussian distribution, and non-linearity
advanced estimation and control
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IRC Program
NSERC Industrial Research Chair in Control of Oil
Sands Processes
Created in 2011
Sponsored by Suncor, Syncrude, NSERC, UofA
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IRC Research Objectives
Developing solutionsfor performance
improvement of control systems within
existingprocess control infrastructurefor
better
monitoring and diagnosis
instrumentation
control
unit-wide/plant-wide operations.
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Multi-loop Control System
Sample Solution 1: Valve Stiction
Compensation by tuning PID
I
(s)
I
(s)
=
g
11
g
12
g
21
g
22
F
h(s)
F
s(s)
S=5.0
J=1.4
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Multi-loop Control System
Experimental results for stiction
compensation by simple tuning
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Sample Solution 2: PATS
Performance Assessment Toolbox and Solutions
suite called PATS.
Certain aspects of the suite have been implemented
in industry to improve the performance of the
industrial process control.
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PATS sample components
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PATS: sample components
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This talk will focus on innovative inferential
(soft) sensor solution
Sample Solution 3: Inferential
Sensors
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Background
Online Measurements of key process variables are restricted:
Frequent but inaccurate OR expensive
Accurate but infrequent
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Introduction
Definition
Provide reliableonline estimates of quality variables on sensors fusion or on the basis
of their correlation with real-time process measurements
Applications
Monitoring and analysis of operation trends
Control
Fault detection and diagnosis
Chemical Processing
and Refining
Oil sand Extraction
and Upgrading
Power Generation
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Introduction (contd)
Advantages
Involve no extra capital cost
Work in parallel with hardware sensors
Can be easily implemented and maintained
Provide more insight into process operation
Productivity +Business profitability +Safety of operations
Production of waste +Operators workload
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Design Procedure
Clarifying the
Intended Application
Data Collection &
Analysis
Model Identification
& Prediction
Validation
Process & control needs
Involved unit operations
Existing methods
Selection of influential variables
Assessment of data quality
Data pre-processing
Model structure selection
Model parameter estimation
Predictor design
Validation criteria
Offline evaluation
Online verification
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Process and Data Analysis
Selection of influential process variables
First principles analysis
Sensitivity analysis of operational/laboratory data
Data pre-processing
Characteristics of industrial data
Missing measurements
Outlying observations
Data collinearity
Multi-rate data
Drifting data
Quality assessment
Accuracy
Reliability
Completeness
Representativeness
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Model Structure Selection
Knowledge-driven
Formulating and solving a set of differential/algebraic macroscopic balance equations
Advantage: good generalization performance
Disadvantage: comprehensive knowledge of the process dynamics
Data-driven
Well supported by historical data
Advantage: convenience and quicker
Disadvantage: poor extrapolating property
sensitive to the data quality
Simplicity+Generality +Flexibility
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Model Structure Selection (contd)
hybrid approach
Process knowledge
offered by the simplified first
principles analysis
Data-driven methods
to compensate fractions which
cannot be modeled in terms of
phenomenological models
Linear or Non-linear
Static or Dynamic
Single or Multiple
State Space or
Input-Output
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Model Parameter Estimation
Linear Models
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Partial Least Squares (PLS)
Principle Component Analysis (PCA)
Subspace Identification
Expectation-Maximization Algorithm (EM)
Prediction Error Method (PEM)
Bayesian Filtering techniques e.g. KalmanFilter (KF)
Non-linear Models
Non-linear OLS, PLS, PCA, PEM
Support Vector Machine (SVM)
Neural Networks (NNs)
Neuro-Fuzzy Systems
Bayesian Filtering techniques e.g. Extended KF, Ensemble KF, Particle Filter (PF)
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Key Modeling and
Prediction Technologies
&
Industrial Application
Examples
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Key Technology 1:Prediction Error
Method/Maximum Likelihood Method
A broad family of classical parameter estimation techniques
Objective
Minimize the prediction errors
( )

=

O e

N
t
t t t
y y l
1
1 |
) (

min arg u
u
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Industrial Application 1: Steam
Quality Soft Sensor for SAGD
Objective
Accurate real-time estimates of the quality of HP steam in
order to develop tighter control strategies for safety &
economic purposes. Great economic incentives.
Existing Methods
Online sensor for average steam quality; inaccurate
Laboratory measurements of individual pass; infrequent
Main Challenge
First principles analysis
Parameter estimation
Methodology
PEM
Combustion
Air
Feed
Fuel Gas
Steam
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Industrial Application 1: Average
Steam Quality Inferential Sensor
Lab analysis
O
n
l
i
n
e

m
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t

&

P
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n

y=x line
Existing online sensor
Prediction
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Industrial Application 1: Individual Pass and
Average Steam Quality inferential Sensors
Pass 1 QualityOnline Testing: February 2012
AverageQuality Online Testing: February 2012
S
t
e
a
m

Q
u
a
l
i
t
y
S
t
e
a
m

Q
u
a
l
i
t
y
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
x 10
4
Time
Existing online
sensor (average)
Lab
Soft Sensor
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
x 10
4
Time
Soft Sensor
averaged
predictions
Lab
Existing online
sensor (original)
Existing online
sensor (calibrated)
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Industrial Application 2: Oil and water
production prediction for SAGD operation
Objective
Real-time prediction of oil and water production for oil wells in
SAGD process
Main Challenge
Complexity of the process
No predictive models available
Long term prediction desired
Methodology
Recursive PEM
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Industrial Application 2: Oil and water production
prediction for SAGD operation - preliminary
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Day
O
i
l

P
r
o
d
u
c
e
d
3-day prediction of oil production
Predicted
Actual
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Day
W
a
t
e
r

P
r
o
d
u
c
e
d
3-day prediction of water produced
predicted
actual
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Industrial Application 3: Separation
Vessel Water Content Soft Sensor
Objective
Accurate real-time estimates of water content of Middlings
Existing Methods
Laboratory measurements; infrequent
Main Challenge
Selection of influential process variables
Identification of appropriate time delays
Building math sensor
Methodology
Causality analysis; variable selection; PEM
Underflow
Froth
Feed
Middling
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Industrial Application 3: Results
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
40
50
60
70
80
90
W
a
t
e
r

P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

i
n

M
i
d
d
l
i
n
g
s


Prediction
Lab Data
Cross-validation Results
W
a
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C
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Key Technology 2: Filtering Based
Inference Techniques
Plant
t
u t
y
Update quality
variable
t t
x
|

1 |

t t
y
Predictedquality
variable
Predicted
measurement
1 |

t t
x
1 t
u
1 | 1

t t
x
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Industrial Application 4: Separation
Vessel Interface Level Soft Sensor I
Objective
To synthesize the redundant measurements in an optimal
manner to reduce the uncertainty and to smooth estimation
of the interface level
Existing Methods
DP cell; inaccurate but less fluctuation
Profiler; accurate but not always reliable
Main Challenge
Data fusion to get smooth and accurate prediction
Methodology
Recursive Least Squares; KalmanFilter
Interface Level
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Industrial Application 4: Results
Offline Cross-validation
I
n
t
e
r
f
a
c
e

L
e
v
e
l
Camera
DP
Profiler
Soft Sensor
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Key Technology 3: Partial Least
Squares
X
T
P
E
Y
U
Q
F
Inner Relation
U=B*T
Outer Relation
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Industrial Application 5: Separation
Vessel Interface Level Soft Sensor II
Objective
To provide accurate real-time estimates of the interface
level
Existing Methods
Camera; accurate and reliable but not always
available
Main Challenge
Building math sensor
Methodology
PLS; Extended KalmanFilter
Interface Level
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Industrial Application 5: Preliminary
Cross Validation Results
Camera
Soft Sensor
J an. 14 18, 2012
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Key Technology 4: Bayesian Methods
Bayes Theorem
Advantages
Incorporating prior knowledge
Handling the incomplete and inconsistent data
) (
) ( ) | (
) | (
D P
P D P
D P
u u
u =
Posterior
Probability
Normalizing
Constant
Likelihood
Prior
Probability
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Industrial Application 6: Froth Treatment
Unit Water Content Soft Sensors
Objective
Accurate real-time estimates of product water content in order to improve the
monitoring & control of the product quality
Existing Methods
Online analyzer; not reliable
Laboratory measurements; large sampling interval and irregular time delay
Main Challenge
Multi-rate measurements
Methodology
Bayesian data fusion; Particle filter
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Industrial Application 6: Result
10 Days Data of Online Testing for Process Monitoring Purposes
Lab
Soft Sensor
Online Analyzer
W
a
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Industrial Application 6: Control
Performance
Lab Dat a Tr ai n 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
03-Dec-09
00:00:00
22-J an-10
00:00:00
13-Mar-10
00:00:00
02-May-10
00:00:00
21-J un-10
00:00:00
10-Aug-10
00:00:00
29-Sep-10
00:00:00
18-Nov-10
00:00:00
07-J an-11
00:00:00
Sample
H
2
O
%
Soft sensor based
cascade control
Before soft sensor developed
Soft sensor readings
available on panel
10 MonthsData to Evaluate Soft Sensor Based Cascade Control
W
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10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
12/1/11 0:30 12/11/11 14:30 12/21/11 0:30 1/1/12 5:30 1/11/12 16:34 1/22/12 18:30 2/2/12 0:30 2/12/12 13:30
W
a
t
e
r
%
Lab Data
Soft Sensor
Industrial Application 6: Most Recent
On-line Implementation Results
W
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Industrial Application 7: Froth
Treatment D2B Ratio Soft Sensors
Objective
Accurate real-time estimates of the Diluent to Bitumen ratio
in the product stream in order to improve the monitoring &
control of the product quality
Existing Methods
Laboratory measurements; infrequent
Main Challenge
Multiple operating modes
Integrate first-principles and data-driven models
Methodology
Bayesian decision-support system
Product
Feed
Underflow
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Industrial Application 7: Results
Offline Cross-validation: J anuary to March2011
3 MonthsData of Online Testing for
ProcessMonitoring Purposes
S
o
f
t

S
e
n
s
o
r
Laboratory Data
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Sample
A
:
B

R
a
t
i
o


Laboratory
Soft Sensor
D
i
l
u
e
n
t

t
o

B
i
t
u
m
e
n

R
a
t
i
o
November 2011 to February 2012
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Industrial Application 8: Underflow
Bitumen Content Soft Sensor
Objective
Real-time estimates of the Bitumen content of the
underflow stream for monitoring
Existing Methods
Online analyzer; not accurate in certain periods
Laboratory measurements; infrequent
Main Challenge
Very small value
Online model updating
Methodology
Expectation-Maximization algorithm; Particle Filter
Underflow
Stream 1
Feed
Stream 2
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Industrial Application 8: Results
Offline Cross-validation: March 2010
B
i
t
u
m
e
n

C
o
n
t
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n
t
Online Testing: February, 2012
B
i
t
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m
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C
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Summary
IRC is to provide solutions for oil sands process control
As well as solutions for other industries,
PATS
The inferential sensor applications
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Acknowledgments
Syncrude
Suncor
Suncor In-situ
Nexen
Sherritt
Agrium
University of Alberta
NSERC
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Useful Web Links
Industrial Research Chair Web
http://www.oilsandscontrol.ualberta.ca/
PATS software web
http://www.ualberta.ca/~control/