Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th

century and its projected continuation. Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F), with about two-thirds of the [2] increase occurring since 1980. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are 95-100% certain that it is primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil [3][4][5] fuels and deforestation. These findings are recognized by the national science [6][A] academies of all major industrialized nations. Climate model projections were summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2.0 to 5.2 F) for [7] their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.

Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, and Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824, discovered in 1860 [58] by John Tyndall, was first investigated [59] quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, and was developed in the 1930s through 1960s by Guy [60] Stewart Callendar.

Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 C [62][C] (59 F). Without the earth's atmosphere the temperature across almost the entire surface [63] of the earth would be below freezing. The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 3670% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9 26%;methane (CH4), which causes 49%; and ozone (O3), which causes 3 [64][65][66] 7%. Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO 2, methane, tropospheric ozone,CFCs and nitrous oxide. According to work published in 2007, the concentrations of [67] CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable

data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates [72] that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago. Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, [73] particularly deforestation. Estimates of global CO2 emissions in 2011 from fossil fuel combustion, including cement production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54% above emissions in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of [74] the total emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7% In May 2013, it was reported that readings for CO2 taken at the world's primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassed 400 ppm. According to professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first time [75][76] CO2 levels have been this high for about 4.5 million years. Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas [77] emissions. CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land[78][79]:71 use change. Emissions can be attributed to different regions, e.g., see the figure [80][81]:289 opposite. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue. Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and [82] natural developments. In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while [83][84] in a few, emissions are reduced. Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit [85] carbon emissions in the 21st century. Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCCSRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 could range [86] between 541 and 970 ppm. This is an increase of 90250% above the concentration in the year 1750. The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the [87][88] destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while [ increasedtropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.

[68][69][70][71]

Particulates and soot

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, [90] was observed from 1961 until at least 1990. The main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion CO2 and aerosols have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been [91] due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane. Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet depositionwhich causes them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon [92] dioxide. Black carbon is second only to carbon dioxide for its contribution to global [93] warming. In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known [94] as theTwomey effect. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known [95] as the Albrecht effect. Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent [96] the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing. Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorbs solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown [97] clouds. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower [98] surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while [99] the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.

Solar activity
Since 1978, output from the Sun has been precisely [102] measured by satellites. These measurements indicate that the Sun's output has not increased since 1978, so the warming during the past 30 years cannot be attributed to an increase in solar energy reaching the Earth. In the three decades since 1978, the combination of solar and volcanic activity probably [103] had a slight cooling influence on the climate. Climate models have been used to examine the role of the sun in recent climate [104] change. Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to simulate the observed 20th century changes in temperature when they include all of the most important external forcings, including human influences and natural forcings. Another line of evidence against the sun having caused recent climate change comes from looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere have [105] changed. Models and observations show that greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower atmosphere (called the troposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (called [106][107] the stratosphere). Depletion of the ozone layerby chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. If the sun were responsible for observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be expected.

Population Growth:
Another major man-made cause of Global Warming is population. More people means more food, and more methods of transportation, right? That means more methane because there will be more burning of fossil fuels, and more agriculture. Now your probably thinking, "Wait a minute, you said agriculture is going to be damaged by Global Warming, but now you're saying agriculture is going to help cause Global Warming?" Well, have you ever been in a barn filled with animals and you smell something terrible? You're smelling methane. Another source of methane is manure. Because more food is needed we have to raise food. Animals like cows are a source of food which means more manure and methane. Another problem with the increasing population is transportation. More people means more cars, and more cars means more pollution. Also, many people have more than one car. Since CO2 contributes to global warming, the increase in population makes the problem worse because we breathe out CO2. Also, the trees that convert our CO2 to oxygen are being demolished because we're using the land that we cut the trees down from as property for our homes and buildings. We are not replacing the trees (an important part of our eco system), so we are constantly taking advantage of our natural resources and giving nothing back in return.