Week 5: Behaviors that Enable the Next Terrorist Attack Brent Smith University of Arkansas Where Groups Procure,

Plan & Target

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

This research was supported under Grant Award Number 2009ST108LR0003 from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security through awards made to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or START. Portions of this research have been supported by the following: Pre-Incident Indicators of Terrorist Activities (PITA), NIJ Grant #2003-DT-CX-0003; Geospatial Analysis of Terrorist Activities (GATA), NIJ Grant #2005-IJ-CX-0200; and Terrorism in Time and Space (TITAS), NIJ Grant #2006-IJ-CX-0037.

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Differences in Traditional Crime and Terrorism

Traditional Criminality
Primary/Immediate Victims Pecuniary/Heat of Passion Motives Spontaneity No Preparatory Crimes

Terrorism
Secondary/Instrumental Targets Political Motives Considerable Planning Series of Preparatory Crimes

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Spatial Patterns of Criminals

Conventional criminals typically commit their crimes within five miles of their place of residence.
Sources: Thomas Reppetto, Residential Crime, 1974; Richard Wright and Scott Decker, Burglars on the Job, 1996; Richard Wright and Scott Decker, Armed Robbers in Action, 1997.

Do terrorists reflect similar patterns of behavior?

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Spatial Patterns of Terrorists

Major terrorist incidents in the U.S. typically involved perpetrators from places other than the site of the target.
Timothy McVeigh: Oklahoma City, OK
Eric Rudolph: Birmingham, AL

September 11 Attackers: New York City, NY

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Patterns of Terrorism in America

Establishment of Residences
Residential Locations May be correlated with other geopolitical or census data

Recruitment
Membership in extremist group

Planning and Preliminary Organization

Identification and clarification of roles in group Exposure to terrorism training manuals

Preparatory Activities
Theft or purchase of explosives, detonation cord, or weapons

Terrorist Incident
Bombings Assassinations Ecotage Hostage taking

Attendance at rallies or demonstrations

Exposure to Internet sites Personal recruitment Accessing extremist literature

Counterfeiting/ laundering money to support group activities

Procurement of false IDs

Discussion of potential targets

Assignment of tasks

Modifications to semi-automatic weapons to fire automatic

Establishment of bomb making labs

Hoaxes
Threats Hijackings

T1 D1

Time

T2 Distance/Location D2

T3 D3

T4

Time

T5 D4, D5 D4, D5

T6

T7

Distance/Location

D6

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Court Cases

335
Incidents

Groups

68
Criminal Counts

403
Perpetrators

1,157
Locations

10,696
ATS Database
Over 500 variables and more than 20,000 records of data.

1,864
Pre-incident Acts

3,562

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Analysis Using ATS Data: Spatial Analysis of Terrorist

Residences to Incident Locations Using Linear Distances

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Analysis Using ATS Data: Spatial Analysis of Terrorist

Antecedent Activities to Incident Locations Using Linear Distances

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Analysis Using ATS Data: Spatial Analysis by Group Type for Terrorist Residences
to Incident Locations Using Linear Distances

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Meetings Communication

Travel
Surveillance/Reconnaissance Procure Bombs or Weapons Fraud

Training
Manufacture Bombs or Weapons Violence Smuggling

Pre-Incident Activities
(linked to 403 terrorist incidents)

Establish Residence or Business

Transport Bombs or Weapons Possession Bombs or Weapons

percent of all pre-incident activities

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

0%

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Antecedent Activity for All Categories

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Thefts and Robberies Spatial Analysis

Linear Distance from Residences to Thefts and Robberies

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Most Common Spatial Pattern

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

Hamm, Mark S. (2006) Terrorism as Crime: From Oklahoma City to Al-Qaeda and Beyond. New York University Press: New York, NY Smith, Brent L., Kelly R. Damphousse, and Paxton Roberts. (2006) Pre-Incident Indicators of Terrorist Incidents: The Identification of Behavioral, Geographic, and Temporal Patterns of Preparatory Conduct National Institute of Justice. Doc. No. 214217

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