H I NDUSTAN T I M ES , N EW D E L H I T H URSDAY, M A RC H 0 6 , 2 0 14

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62 years and 15 elections after the Indian voter cast his ballot for the rst time under the new Constitution, Indian democracy is robust, mature and institutionalised.
Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS)

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13

ELECTIONS IN RETROSPECT
Here, HT takes a look at each of Indias LS elections, the shifting balance of power, and the dynamic between vote share and seat strength. Research: Prashant Jha & M Ramakrishnan
Graphic: Malay Karmakar
Indian National Congress (INC)
VOTE SHARE SEATS Y E A R S

A SHARE IN DEMOCRACYS PIE

From the dominance of one party, the polity is now truly plural, offering voters many choices. The fragmentation - as the dipping vote share of national parties and increasing share of regional outts below show - may give a sense of the chaos, but indicates well-articulated, diverse aspirations.
Regional Parties & others Janata Party (JP) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Left Parties Janata Dal (JD) Figures in Black are vote share
SEATS Figures in colours are seats acquired by respective parties

NAVIGATION
The vertical axis represents the Lok Sabhas down the years and the horizontal axis represents increasing vote share (minimum 0% to maximum 50%) from left to right

VOTE
0% 10% 20%

SHARE
30% 40% 50%

16 seats
1952

3.29% vote share 1st LOK SABHA

Chief election commissioner Sukumar Sen organised the then most ambitious democratic experiment in history 176 million Indians registered voters, 224,000 polling booths, 200,000 policemen on guard and 300 mass meetings addressed by Jawaharlal Nehru. The new republics democratic foundations were laid.

34 seats
8.10%
vote share

3 seats
3.06%
vote share

8.92% 5.97%

27

1957

31

9.94% 3rd LOK SABHA

1962
The Congress, using its governance record, managed to retain strength, though with a slight dip in voteshare. India would soon head into a devastating war with China. This would also turn out to be Pandit Nehrus last election. After his death, two other PMs rose Lal Bahadur Shastri and Indira Gandhi.

29

7.60%

31

Vote share does not necessarily translate into seat strength but shows peoples preferences. Here is a look at the performances of major political formations since the rst general elections

364

seats

44.99%

1952

vote share

47.78%

371
1957

2nd LOK SABHA

The Congress consolidated power and reigned supreme across north India, with opposition from the Right and Left diminished. Early indications of regional challenges emerged, with the communists in Kerala forming the state government. But Nehru remained at his peak.

34

361
44.72%
1964 >> The Communist Party of India splits into CPI and CPI (Marxist) owing to differences on the India-China war, relationship with Moscow and Beijing and outlook towards Congress. 1969 >> Indira Gandhi takes on the Congress old guard, puts up her own candidate as president, and takes a left-turn on policies. Party splits between Congress (O) and Congress (R). 1977 >> Opposition parties, including Congress (O), Jan Sangh, Lok Dal, Swatantra Party, Socialist Party and defectors from ruling Congress come together under the guidance of Jaya Prakash Narayan to form the Janata Party to challenge Indira.

10.45%

6.44% 9.31%

14 35 45

1962

283
40.78% 4th LOK SABHA
The countrys pioneer pollster, EPW da Costa predicted the election would spell the disintegration of the monolithic exercise of power by the Congress. The Congress did retain power at the Centre, but lost control of several provinces, including Madras, where the DMK came to power.

10.08%

1967

9.39%

42 53

1967

352
43.68%

5th LOK SABHA

Indira Gandhi called for early polls and led her new party, Congress (R), to victory against the oppositions Grand Alliance. This was Indias rst Lok Sabha mid-term poll, breaking the pattern of simultaneous national and state elections. She coined the epic slogan, Garibi Hatao. Congress(R) now became Congress (Indira).

14.32%
1971

7.35%

22

9.85%

48

1971

7.11%
1977

29 52
9.83%

154 295 seats

34.52% 41.32%
1977
vote share

6th LOK SABHA

What some call Indias most important election coming as it did after the countrys tryst with authoritarianism resulted in the end of the Congress monopoly over power. Indira Gandhi called for polls after 19 months of Emergency in January 1977; opposition parties formed the Janata Party, catapulting Morarji Desai into the top job.

7th LOK SABHA

The Janata experiment ended in failure due to internal divisions, weak governance, and the country yearning for the order and stability under Indira. The Congress returned to power, surpassing its 1971 win, sweeping the south and beneting from a division of votes between Janata factions in the north.

8.50%
1980

35
8.73%

47

42.69%

353

31 58

1980

18.97% 7.74% vote share

2 seats
12.28%

1984

6.89%

10 28

1980 >> Former Jan Sangh members split from Janata Party when asked to choose between the party and the RSS. They form the BJP, with AB Vajpayee as its first president.

404

49.10%
1984

8th LOK SABHA

Indira Gandhis assassination by her guards stunned the nation. Her son, Rajiv, who had entered politics after his brother Sanjays death, took over as PM. The antiSikh riots and the Bhopal gas tragedy were black marks, but not enough to prevent a sympathy wave that saw the Congress win its biggest-ever victory.

46 45 85

15.41% 11.36%

8.58% 9th LOK SABHA

Allegations of corruption tainted the Rajiv Gandhi administration. The Congress suffered a setback with VP Singhs exit. It remained the singlelargest party, but a Janata Dal government led by Singh, supported by the BJP and the Left, came to power. 1989 was the 1st election where no party got a majority.

143 seats

197

9.12%
1989

17.79% vote share 39.53%

1989

232
8.65%

49 59 54
15.19%

120

20.11% 131 36.26%

1991

10th LOK SABHA

The Janata experiment again collapsed due to internal disputes. Polls took place in the backdrop of Mandal (OBC reservation in public jobs), Mandir (the BJPs agitation for a Ram temple in Ayodhya) and Rajiv Gandhis assassination. The Congress emerged as the single largest party and PV Narasimha Rao became the surprise PM.

1991

11.84% 5.04%

46

11th LOK SABHA

A strong anti-incumbency wave saw the Congress lose over 8 percentage points of the vote share. For the rst time in electoral history, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party. Its government lasted only 13 days as it failed to garner a majority in the Lok Sabha. Two United Front governments, backed by the Congress, took ofce, but were short-lived.

8.09%

44

131 161

24.63%

140
28.80%
1996

1996

20.29% 5.16%

6
4.99%

141 41 182 182

25.82%

150

29.66%
1998

12th LOK SABHA

A mid-term poll saw the BJP become the single-largest party again. AB Vajpayee formed the government, which lasted 13 months, before a key ally the AIADMK withdrew support. The polls were marked by Sonia Gandhis entry into the electoral fray, and the BJP coming closest to matching the Congress vote share.

1998

25.59%

114

28.30%

13th LOK SABHA

The BJP had expanded its footprint, dropped controversial issues, and gained allies in the broader National Democratic Alliance. The Kargil victory helped project the party as a strong outt. Vajpayee would go on to lead the rst non-Congress alliance to complete almost a full term.

1999

6.52%

37

23.75%

168 138 145

1999

30.15% 26.70%

2004

7.07%

53

22.16%

174

32.86%
2004

14th LOK SABHA

The BJP, riding on the wave of three assembly victories, called for early elections, with its India Shining slogan. But the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress emerged victorious by a thin margin. She nominated Manmohan Singh to lead the United Progressive Alliance government, backed by Left parties from the outside.

206
15th LOK SABHA
2009
The Congress trio of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and PM Singh led the party to its biggest success in almost 20 years. Urban India voted resoundingly for the party whose rural welfare schemes paid rich electoral dividends. The BJPs charge of a dual power centre, and Singh being a weak PM did not stick. Eventually, the CPI(M)became the bigger of the two Left parties.

28.55% 6.76%

158

31.23%

20

116

18.80%

MAJOR STATE PLAYERS IN 2009 Vote share Seats SP 3.42% 23 JD(U) 1.52% 20 TMC 3.20% 19 DMK 1.83% 18 BJD 1.59% 14 Shiv Sena 1.55% 11 40%

2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

50%

A glance at voting patterns indicates democracys multi-layered complexities. Here are three trends to watch out for in the 2014 polls. Will there be continuity or a break?

BJP VS CONGRESS

Never in Indias electoral history, has the BJP, even at its peak, exceeded the vote share of the Congress. In 1998, it came closest with 25.59%, its best so far, to the Congress 25.82%, which was the partys lowest-ever. In the past three elections, the BJPs vote share has in fact declined steadily and it had only 18.80% in 2009. With opinion polls suggesting a surge for the BJP, will it recover and make history by trumping the Congress? Or will the voters of the grand old party remain loyal?

REGIONAL & LEFT BLOCKS

The 1996 elections were a turning point, for the Left, regional and smaller parties, which collectively had a greater vote share than that of the Congress. This trend persisted, and in 2004, state parties on their own outweighed the Congress and BJP in terms of popular support. This is a testament to the increasing plurality, and regionalisation of politics. Will national parties reverse the tide or will local, state-level actors continue to grow in prominence and strength even when it comes to the Lok Sabha polls?

Source of statistics: Election Commission Of India

FLEDGLING SHOWS

Except the Congress, which rode on its legacy as the party of the freedom struggle, each party has made incremental gains in parliamentary polls. Even the Janata Party of 1977 was an umbrella outfit of older parties with electoral experience. The only exception has been the Telugu Desam Party, which in its very first general election, rose to become the leading opposition party in 1984. As the Aam Aadmi Party launches an ambitious campaign, will it defy electoral history and gain substantially in its very first polls, or will it have to be satisfied with minor gains?

Who forms the government is a product of the popular mood at any moment in the nations life. But it also depends on alliances, the balance of power in the Lok Sabha, and the changing equations between parties once the results are declared.