Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project work entitled A Case Study on Portfolio Management with reference to Inter-Connected Stock E c!ange of India "imited #ISE$; Hyderabad has been carried out by %%%%% under y !uidance in partial fulfill ent of the Re"uire ents for the award of #
$%aculty # %inance&
$Course Co'ordinator&
$(irector&
C&)TE)TS
)* CO+P,N- PRO%./E 0* .NTRO(1CT.ON 2* PORT%O/.O ,N,/-3.3 4* ,N,/-3.3 5 .NTERPRET.ON 6* C,/C1/,T.ON O% ,7ER,8E RET1RN O% CO+P,N.E3 9* C,/C1/,T.ON O% PORT%O/.O R.3: ;* C,/C1/,T.ON O% PORT%O/.O <E.8HT3 =* CONC/13.ON >* ?.?./O8R,PH-
CO+P,N- PRO%./E
.nter'connected stock e@chan!e of .ndia li ited A.3EB has been pro oted by )4 Re!ional stock e@chan!es to proCide cost'effectiCe tradin! linka!eDconnectiCity to all the the e bers of the participatin! E@chan!esE with the objectiCe of widenin! arket for the securities listed on these E@chan!es* .3E ai s to address the
needs of s all co panies and retail inCestors with the !uidin! principle of opti iFin! the e@istin! infrastructure and harnessin! the potential of re!ional arketsE so as to transfor these into a li"uid and Cibrant arket throu!h the use of state'of'the'art technolo!y and networkin!* The participatin! E@chan!es of .3E in all about 46GG stock brokersE out of which ore than 0GG haCe been currently re!istered as traders on .3E* .n order to leCera!e its infrastructure and to e@pand its nationwide reachE .3E has also appointed around 46G (ealers across ;G cities other than the participatin! E@chan!e centers* These dealers are ad inistratiCely supported throu!h the re!ional offices of .3E at (elhi AnorthBE kolkata AeastBE Coi batoreE Hyderabad AsouthB and Na!pur AcentralBE besides +u bai*
.3E has also floated a wholly'owned subsidiaryE .3E securities and serCices li ited A.33BE which has taken up corporate e bership of the National 3tock E@chan!e of .ndia /td* AN3EB in both the Capital +arket and %utures and Options se! ents and The 3tock E@chan!eE +u bai .n the E"uities se! entE so that the traders and dealers of .3E can access other arkets and their local securities* <ith the objectiCe of broad basin! the ran!e of its serCicesE .3E has started offerin! the full suite of (P facilities to its TradersE (ealers and their clients* arkets in addition to the .3E arket* .3E thus proCides the inCestors in s aller cities a
one'stop solution for cost'effectiCe and efficient tradin! and settle ent in
ultiple
ode*
>
I)TR&*(CTI&)
)G
in the present with an e@pectation of receiCin! additional return in the future* a ini u to a a@i u * This possibility of Cariation in the actual return is
known as inCest ent risk* Thus eCery inCest ent inColCes a return and risk* .nCest ent is an actiCity that is undertaken by those who haCe saCin!s* 3aCin!s can be defined as the e@cess of inco e oCer e@penditure* ,n inCestor earnsDe@pects to earn additional could be in the for onetary Calue fro the ode of inCest ent that of financial assets*
The three i portant characteristics of any financial asset areH Return'the potential return possible fro an asset* the chances of its Calue
/i"uidity'the ease with which an asset can be conCerted into cash* .nCestors tend to look at these three characteristics while decidin! on their indiCidual preference pattern of inCest ents* Each financial asset will haCe a certain leCel of each of these characteristics*
In3estment a3enues
))
There are a lar!e nu ber of inCest ent aCenues for saCers in .ndia* 3o e of the are arketable and li"uidE while others are non' arketable* 3o e of the are hi!hly risky while so e others are al ost risk less* .nCest ent aCenues can be broadly cate!oriFed under the followin! head* )* Corporate securities 0* E"uity shares* 2* Preference shares* 4* (ebenturesD?onds* 6* (eriCatiCes* 9* Others*
Cor2orate Securities
Joint stock co panies in the priCate sector issue corporate securities* These include e"uity sharesE preference sharesE and debentures* E"uity shares haCe Cariable diCidend and hence belon! to the hi!h risk'hi!h return cate!ory; preference shares and debentures haCe fi@ed returns with lower risk*The classification of corporate securities that can be chosen as inCest ent aCenues can be depicted as shown belowH
E"uity 3hares
Preference shares
?onds
<arrants
(eriCatiCes
&'+ECTI,ES &F T-E ST(*./ The objectiCes of the study are as followsH To study the inCest ent pattern and its related risks 5 returns* To find out opti al portfolioE which !aCe opti al return at a to the inCestor* To see whether the portfolio risk is less than indiCidual risk on whose basis the portfolios are constituted* To see whether the selected portfolios is yieldin! a satisfactory and constant return to the inCestor* To understandE analyFe and select the best portfolio* ini iFe risk
correlations between the different securities in order to find out at what percenta!e funds should be inCested a on! the co panies in the portfolio* ,lso the study includes the calculation of indiCidual 3tandard (eCiation of securities and ends at the calculation of wei!hts of indiCidual securities inColCed in the portfolio* These percenta!es help in allocatin! the funds aCailable for inCest ent based on risky portfolios*
)2
*ATA C&""ECTI&) MET-&*S The data collection ethods* Pri ary collection 3econdary collection ethodsH This ethod includes the data collection fro e bers of the e@chan!e* ethods includes the arket operations and so onE the personal discussion with the authoriFed clerks and lectures of the superintend of the depart ent of also the data collected fro issues of this study the newsE ethods include both the pri ary and secondary collection
)4
(ata collection was strictly confined to secondary source* No pri ary data is associated with the project* (etailed study of the topic was not possible due to li ited siFe of the project* There was a constraint with re!ard to ti e allocation for the research study i*e* for a period of two onths*
that one should not put all the e!!es into one basket* ?y doin! soE he can achieCe ini iFin! the portfolio risk by diCersification* Portfolio Portfolio Ciew to ana!e ent is the ana!e ent of Carious financial assets which that is desi!ned with a
co prise the portfolio* ana!e ent is a decision # support syste eet the ulti'faced needs of inCestors* eans the total holdin!s of securities belon!in! to any eans any person who pursuant to a contract or
,ccordin! to 3ecurities and E@chan!e ?oard of .ndia Portfolio +ana!er is defined asH Jportfolio personK* PORTFOLIO MANAGER arran!e ent with a clientE adCises or directs or undertakes on behalf of the
)6
client $whether as a discretionary portfolio client* DISCRETIONARY PORTFOLIO MANAGER who e@ercises or
ana!e ent or ad inistration of a portfolio of securities or the funds of the eans a portfolio ana!er
e@ercises any de!ree of discretion as to the inCest ents or the portfolio of securities or the funds of the client*
inCest ent instru ents* STR(CT(RE 6 PR&CESS &F T.PICA" P&RTF&"I& MA)A5EME)T
P&RTF&"I& MA)A5ERS
C"IE)TS
C-ARACTERISTICS &F P&RTF&"I& MA)A5EME)T/ .ndiCiduals will benefit i for the followin! reasonsH <hateCer capital than fro ay be the status of the capital arketE oCer the lon! period uch less ensely by takin! portfolio ana!e ent serCices
arkets haCe !iCen an e@cellent return when co pared to other bank depositsE unitsE etc*E is the stock arket*
The .ndian 3tock +arkets are Cery co plicated* Thou!h there are thousands of co panies that are listed only a few hundred which haCe the necessary li"uidity* ECen a on! theseE only so e haCe the !rowth prospects which are conduciCe for inCest ent* .t is i possible for any indiCidual wishin! to inCest and sit down and analyFe all these intricacies of the does nothin! else* ECen if an inCestor is able to understand the intricacies of the separate chaff fro arket and arket unless he
co plicated that it is really a difficult task for an inCestor to trade in all the
);
ajor e@chan!es of .ndiaE look after his deliCeries and pay ents* This is further co plicated by the Colatile nature of our constant reshuffin! of portfolios* arkets which de ands
!iCes a !ood return on the inCest ent and char!es fees* .n the (iscretionary a@i ise the yieldE al ost all portfolio arket securities such as oCerni!ht arketE ercial bills* Nor allyE the return of such oney rates
E er!ence of institutional inCestin! on behalf of indiCiduals* , nu ber of financial institutionsE task of inCestin! utual funds and other a!encies are undertakin! the oney of s all inCestorsE on their behalf*
8rowth in the nu ber and siFe of inCesti!able funds # a lar!e part of household saCin!s is bein! directed towards financial assets* .ncreased arket Colatility # risk and return para eters of financial assets
are continuously chan!in! because of fre"uent chan!es in !oCern entLs industrial and fiscal policiesE econo ic uncertainty and instability* 8reater use of co puters for processin! ass of data* ethods $e*!*
ProfessionaliFation of the field and increasin! use of analytical "uantitatiCe techni"ues& in the inCest ent decision # akin!
eetin! portfolio
,llocation of assets and deter ination of appropriate portfolio strate!ies for each asset class and selection of indiCidual securities* Perfor ance objectiCes* +onitorin! portfolio factors and respondin! to chan!es in inCestor objectiCesE constrains and D or capital arket e@pectations* easure ent and eCaluation to ensure attain ent of inCestor
Rebalancin! the portfolio when necessary by repeatin! the asset allocationE portfolio strate!y and security selection*
i portance of all inCestors holdin!s* The e phasis shifts fro assets selection to a
return interrelationships of indiCidual assets within the portfolio* .ndiCidual securities are i portant only to the e@tent they affect the a!!re!ate portfolio* .n shortE all decisions should focus on the i pact which the decision will haCe on the a!!re!ate portfolio of all the assets held* Portfolio strate!y should be of the portfolioLs owner* oulded to the uni"ue needs and characteristics
0G
(iCersification across securities will reduce a portfolioLs risk* .f the risk and return are lower than the desired leCelE leCera!es $borrowin!& can be used to achieCe the desired leCel* /ar!er portfolio returns co e only with lar!er portfolio risk* The i portant decision to ake is the a ount of risk which is acceptable* ost
The risk associated with a security type depends on when the inCest ent will be li"uidated* Risk is reduced by selectin! securities with a payoff close to when the portfolio is to be li"uidated* Co petition for abnor al returns is e@tensiCeE so one has to be careful in eCaluatin! the risk and return fro has to act fast to profit fro securities* . balances do not last lon! and one e@ceptional opportunities*
e@citin! and challen!in! job* He has to work in an e@tre ely uncertain and arket eCery new piece of infor ation ust affects the Calue of the securities of different industries in a different way* He ust be able to jud!e and predict the effects of the infor ation he !ets* He haCe sharp decisions* 0* A)A".TICA" A'I"IT./ He ust haCe his own theory to arriCe at the e oryE alertnessE fast intuition and self'confidence to arriCe at "uick
instrinsic Calue of the security* ,n analysis of the securityLs CaluesE co panyE etc*
0)
akes a !ood
opportunities of the econo yE industry and the co pany* 2* MAR<ETI)5 S<I""S/ He brokers in the stock 4* ust be !ood sales an* He has to arketin! skills help hi a lot*
conCince the clients about the particular security* He has to co pete with the stock arket* .n this conte@tE the
often repeatedE therefore the e@perience of the different phases helps to arket trendsE etc*E akes a perfect professional ana!er*
P&RTF&"I& '(I"*I)5/
Portfolio decisions for an indiCidual inCestor are influenced by a wide Cariety of factors* .ndiCiduals differ !reatly in their circu stances and thereforeE a financial pro!ra indiCidual needs* e well suited to one indiCidual ay be inappropriate for another* .deallyE an indiCidualLs portfolio should be tailor' ade to fit oneLs
In3estor>s C!aracteristics/ ,n analysis of an indiCidualLs inCest ent situation re"uires a study of personal characteristics such as a!eE health conditionsE personal habitsE fa ily
00
responsibilitiesE business or professional situationE and ta@ statusE all of which affect the inCestorLs willin!ness to assu e risk*
on !rowth and lesser e phasis on li"uidity* He can afford to wait for realiFation of
Family res2onsi1ilitiesH
The inCestorLs arital status and his responsibilities towards other e bers of the fa ily can haCe a lar!e i pact on his inCest ent needs and !oals* In3estor>s e 2erience/ The success of portfolio depends upon the inCestorLs knowled!e and e@perience in financial he ay wish to be atters* .f an inCestor has an aptitude for financial affairsE ore a!!ressiCe in his inCest ents*
Attitude to0ards Risk/ , personLs psycholo!ical ake'up and financial position dictate his ability to assu e the risk* (ifferent kinds of securities haCe diffferent kinds of risks* The hi!her the riskE the !reater the opportunity for hi!her !ain or loss* "i?uidity )eeds/ /i"uidity needs Cary considerably a on! indiCidual inCestors* .nCestors with re!ular inco e fro other sources ay not worry uch about instantaneous eetin! their
02
li"uidityE but indiCiduals who depend heaCily upon inCest ent for
/i"uidity can be obtained in two waysH )* by allocatin! an appropriate percenta!e of the portfolio to bank depositsE and 0* by re"uirin! that bonds and e"uities purchased be hi!hly Ta considerations/ 3ince different indiCidualsE dependin! upon their inco esE are subjected to different ar!inal rates of ta@esE ta@ considerations beco e ost i portant factor in indiCidualLs portfolio strate!y* There are differin! ta@ treat ents for inCest ent in Carious kinds of assets* arketable*
Time -ori@on/ .n inCest ent plannin!E ti e horiFon beco e an i portant consideration* .t is hi!hly Cariable fro indiCidual to indiCidual* .ndiCiduals in their youn! a!e haCe lon! ti e horiFon for plannin!E they can s ooth out and absorb the ups and downs of risky co bination* .ndiCiduals who are old haCe s aller ti e horiFonE they !enerally tend to aCoid Colatile portfolios* Indi3idual>s Financial &1Aecti3es/ .n the initial sta!esE the pri ary objectiCe of an indiCidual could be to accu ulate wealth Cia re!ular to achieCe lon! ter Safety of Princi2al/ onthly saCin!s and haCe an inCest ent pro!ra e capital !ains*
04
The protection of the rupee Calue of the inCest ent is of pri e i portance to ost inCestors* The ori!inal inCest ent can be recoCered only if the security can be readily sold in the arket without uch loss of Calue*
Assurance of Income/ M(ifferent inCestors haCe different current inco e needs* .f an indiCidual is dependent of its inCest ent inco e for current consu ption then inco e receiCed now in the for of diCidend and interest pay ents beco e pri ary objectiCe*
In3estment Risk/ ,ll inCest ent decisions reColCe around the trade'off between risk and return* ,ll rational inCestors want a substantial return fro ability to understandE easure and properly their inCest ent* ,n ana!e inCest ent risk is funda ental
to any intelli!ent inCestor or a speculator* %re"uentlyE the risk associated with security inCest ent is i!nored and only the rewards are e phasiFed* ,n inCestor who does not fully appreciate the risks in security inCest ents will find it difficult to obtain continuin! positiCe results*
06
There is a positiCe relationship between the a ount of risk and the a ount of e@pected return i*e*E the !reater the riskE the lar!er the e@pected return and lar!er the chances of substantial loss* One of the ost difficult proble s for an inCestor is to esti ate the hi!hest leCel of risk he is able to assu e* Risk is ri!ht* easured alon! the horiFontal a@is and increases fro the left to
only associated with the yield on !oCern ent securities* R $f& to E$r& illustrates the concept of e@pected rate
78 Systematic Risk/
3yste atic risk is caused by factors e@ternal to the particular co pany and uncontrollable by the co pany* The syste atic risk affects the %actors affect the syste atic risk are econo ic conditions political conditions sociolo!ical chan!es The syste atic risk is unaCoidable* 3yste atic risk is further sub'diCided into three types* They are a& +arket Risk b& .nterest Rate Risk c& Purchasin! Power Risk a:8 Market Risk/ One would notice that when the stock price* On the other handE when the drop* .t is not unco arket sur!es upE ost stocks post hi!her ost co on stocks will ay fluctuate ti e to ti e while a arket as a whole*
co panyLs earnin!s are risin! and Cice'Cersa* The price of stock stable*
0;
b). Interest Rate Risk/ .nterest rate risk is the risk of loss of principal brou!ht about the chan!es in the interest rate paid on new securities currently bein! issued* c)8 Purc!asing Po0er Risk/ The typical inCestor seeks an inCest entE which will !iCe hi current inco e and D or capital appreciation in addition to his ori!inal inCest ent* B8 (n-systematic Risk/ 1n'syste atic risk is uni"ue and peculiar to a fir or an industry* The nature and
ode of raisin! finance and payin! back the loansE inColCe the risk ele ent* %inancial leCera!e of the co panies that is debt'e"uity portion of the co panies differs fro each other* ,ll these factors %actors affect the un'syste atic risk and contribute a portion in the total Cariability of the return* +ana!erial inefficiently Technolo!ical chan!e in the production process ,Cailability of raw aterials
Chan!es in the consu er preference /abour proble s The nature and a!nitude of the aboCe entioned factors differ fro industry to
industry and co pany to co pany* They haCe to be analyFed separately for each industry and fir * 1n'syste atic risk can be broadly classified intoH a& ?usiness Risk b& %inancial Risk
0=
a8
'usiness Risk/ ?usiness risk is that portion of the unsyste atic risk caused by the operatin! enCiron ent of the business* ?usiness risk arises fro the inability of a fir to aintain its co petitiCe ed!e and !rowth or stability of the earnin!s* The Colatibility in stock prices due to factors intrinsic to the co pany itself is known as ?usiness risk* ?usiness risk is concerned with the difference between reCenue and earnin!s before interest and ta@* ?usiness risk can be diCided into*
0>
.t refers to the Cariability of the inco e to the e"uity capital due to the debt capital* %inancial risk in a co pany is associated with the capital structure of the co pany* Capital structure of the co pany consists of e"uity funds and borrowed funds*
P&RTF&"I& A)A".SIS/
7arious !roups of securities when held to!ether behaCe in a different anner and !iCe interest pay ents and diCidends alsoE which are different to the analysis of indiCidual securities* , co bination of securities held to!ether will !iCe a beneficial result if they are !rouped in a takin! into consideration the risk ele ent* There are two approaches in construction of the portfolio of securities* They are Traditional approach +odern approach TRA*ITI&)A" APPR&AC-/ Traditional approach was based on the fact that risk could be easured on anner to secure hi!her return after
each indiCidual security throu!h the process of findin! out the standard deCiation and that security should be chosen where the deCiation was the lowest* Traditional
2G
take adCanta!e fo the situation* Traditional approach is a co prehensiCe financial plan for the indiCidual* .t takes into account the indiCidual needs such as housin!E life insurance and pension plans* Traditional approach basically deals with two ajor decisions* They are a& (eter inin! the objectiCes of the portfolio
M&*ER) APPR&AC-/
+odern approach theory was brou!ht out by +arkowitF and 3harpe* .t is the co bination of securities to !et the securities can be belieCes in the ade in ost efficient portfolio* Co bination of ethod* +odern portfolio theory any ways* +arkowitF deCeloped the theory of
odern approach discusses the relationship between different securities and then draws inter'relationships of risks between the * +arkowitF !iCes the process of selectin! the portfolio* .t does not deal with the indiCidual needs*
MAR<&=ITC M&*E"/
+arkowitF odel is a theoretical fra ework for analysis of risk and return easure ent of risk and in! for selection of assets in a portfolio in an efficient and their relationships* He used statistical analysis for the athe atical pro!ra
anner* +arkowitF apporach deter ines for the inCestor the efficient set of portfolio throu!h three i portant Cariables i*e* Return
2)
3tandard deCiation Co'efficient of correlation +arkowitF odel is also called as an J%ull CoCariance +odelJ* Throu!h this
odel the inCestor can find out the efficient set of portfolio by findin! out the trade off between risk and returnE between the li its of Fero and infinity* ,ccordin! to this theoryE the effects of one security purchase oCer the effects of the other security purchase are taken into consideration and then the results are eCaluated* +ost people a!ree that holdin! two stocks is less risky than holdin! one stock* %or e@a pleE holdin! stocks fro than inCestin! all the te@tileE bankin! and electronic co panies is better oney on the te@tile co panyLs stock*
+arkowitF had !iCen up the sin!le stock portfolio and introduced diCersification* The sin!le stock portfolio would be preferable if the inCestor is perfectly certain that his e@pectation of hi!hest return would turn out to be real* .n the world of uncertainityE ost of the risk adCerse inCestors would like to join +arkowitF rather than keepin! a sin!le stockE because diCersification reduces the risk*
ASS(MPTI&)S/
,ll inCestors would like to earn the achieCe fro their inCest ents* a@i u rate of return that they can
,ll inCestors haCe the sa e e@pected sin!le period inCest ent horiFon* ,ll inCestors before akin! any inCest ents haCe a co on !oal* This is the aCoidance of risk because .nCestors are risk'aCerse* .nCestors base their inCest ent decisions on the e@pected return and standard deCiation of returns fro Perfect a possible inCest ent* arkets are assu ed $e*!* no ta@es and no transation costs&
20
The inCestor assu es that !reater or lar!er the return that he achieCes on his inCest entsE the hi!her the risk factor surrounds hi * On the contrary when risks are low the rerturn can also be e@pected to be low* The inCestor can reduce his risk if he adds inCest ents to his portfolio* ,n inCestor should be able to !et hi!her return for each leCel of risk Jby deter inin! the efficient set of securitiesJ* ,n indiCidual seller or buyer cannot affect the price of a stock* This assu ption is the basic assu ption of the perfectly co petitiCe .nCestors standard deCiation and coCariances of all pairs of securities* .nCestors are assu ed to haCe ho o!enous e@pectations durin! the decision' akin! period The inCestor can lend or borrow any a ount of funds at the riskless rate of interest* The riskless rate of interest is the rate of interest offered for the treasury bills or 8oCern ent securities* .nCestors are risk'aCerseE so when !iCen a choice between two otherwise identical portfoliosE they will choose the one with the lower standard deCiation* .ndiCidual assets are infinitely diCisibleE fraction of a share if he or she so desires* There is a risk free rate at which an inCestor oney or borrow stocks* oney* ay either lend $i*e* inCest& eanin! that an inCestor can buy a arket* ake their decisions only on the basis of the e@pected returnsE
22
There is no personal inco e ta@* HenceE the inCestor is indifferent to the for return either capital !ain or diCidend*
of
return* .n the C,P+ theoryE the re"uired rate return of an asset is haCin! a linear
relationship with assetLs beta Calue i*e* undiCersifiable or syste atic risk $i*e* arket related risk& because non and syste atci risk arket risk can be eli inated by diCersification easured by beta* ThereforeE the relationship between an assets
return and its syste atic risk can be e@pressd by the C,P+E which is also called the 3ecurity +arket /ine* R2D Rf %fE Rm97- %f: R2 N Portfolio return %f N The proportion of funds inCested in risk free assets 7- %f N The proportion of funds inCested in risky assets Rf N Risk free rate of return Rm N Return on risky assets %or ula can be used to calculate the e@pected returns for different situtionsE like i@in! riskless assets with risky assetsE inCestin! only in the risky asset and i@in! the borrowin! with risky assets* T-E C&)CEPT/ ,ccordin! to C,P+E all inCestors hold only the less securities* The risky assets* arket* Each asset is held in proportion to its arket portfolio and risk
arket portfolio is a portfolio co prised of all stocks in the arket Calue to the total Calue of all
26
.ndustry share represents )6O of all risky assetsE then the .ndustry
arket portfolio of the indiCidual inCestor contains )6O of 3atya oney at the risk less rate of interest*
shares* ,t this sta!eE the inCestor has the ability to borrow or lend any a ount of E!*H assu e that borrowin! and lendin! rate to be )0*6O and the return fro the risky assets to be 0GO* There is a trade off between the e@pected return and risk* .f an inCestor inCests in risk free assets and risky assetsE his risk assetsE his risk would increase ore than he inCests his own ay be less than what he inCests in the risky asset alone* ?ut if he borrows to inCest in risky oney in the risky assets* <hen he borrows to inCestE we call it financial leCera!e* .f he inCests 6GO in risk free assets and 6GO in risky assetsE his e@pected return of the portfolio would be R2D Rf %fE Rm97- %f: N $)0*6 @ G*6& P 0G $)'G*6& N 9*06 P )G N )9*06O
if there is a Fero inCest ent in risk free asset and )GGO in risky assetE the return is R2D Rf %fE Rm97- %f: N G P 0GO N 0GO if 'G*6 in risk free asset and )*6 in risky assetE the return is R2D Rf %fE Rm97- %f: N $)0*6 @ 'G*6& P 0G $)*6& N '9*06P 2G N 02*;6O
29
This is a part of the process of refinin! his skills and i proCin! his perfor ance oCer a period of ti e* ii8 E"aluatio of Ma a#e$%! , to eCaluate its ana!ers* , utual fund or si ilar or!aniFation utual fund ay haCe seCeral i!ht want
ana!ers each
runnin! a separate fund or sub'fund* .t is often necessary to co pare the perfor ance of these iii8 ana!ers* ay want to eCaluate the Carious
utual funds operatin! in the country to decide whichE if anyE of these should be chosen for inCest ent* , si ilar need arises in the case of indiCiduals or or!anisations who en!a!e e@ternal a!encies for portfolio adCisory serCices*
2;
E"aluatio
perfor ance of a whole !roup of inCestors and co pare it with another !roup of inCestors who use different techni"ues or who haCe different skills or access to different infor ation* NEED FOR EVAL(ATION OF PORTFOLIO! <e can try to eCaluate eCery transaction* <heneCer a security is brou!ht or soldE we can atte pt to assess whether the decision was correct and profitable* <e can try to eCaluate the perfor ance of a specific security in the portfolio to deter ine whether it has been worthwhile to include it in our portfolio* <e can try to eCaluate the perfor ance of portfolio as a whole durin! the period without e@a inin! the perfor ance of indiCidual securities within the portfolio* )EE* F IMP&RTA)CE/ Portfolio ana!e ent has e er!ed as a separate acade ic discipline in
.ndia* Portfolio theory that deals with the rational inCest ent decision' akin! process has now beco e an inte!ral part of financial literature* .nCestin! in securities such as sharesE debentures 5 bonds is profitable well as e@citin!* .t is indeed rewardin! but inColCes a !reat deal of risk 5 need artistic skill* .nCestin! in financial securities is now considered to be one of the ost risky aCenues of inCest ent* .t is rare to find inCestors inCestin! their entire saCin!s in a sin!le security* .nsteadE they tend to inCest in a !roup of securities* 3uch !roup of
2=
securities is called as PORT%O/.O* Creation of portfolio helps to reduce risk without sacrificin! returns* securities into portfolios* The odern theory is of the Ciew that by diCersificationE risk can be ake diCersification either by haCin! a lar!e nu ber of Portfolio ana!e ent deals with the analysis of indiCidual securities as well as with the theory 5 practice of opti ally co binin!
shares of co panies in different re!ionsE in different industries or those producin! different types of product lines* +odern theory belieCes in the perspectiCe of co binations of securities under constraints of risk and return*
P&RTF&"I& RE,ISI&)/
The portfolio which is once selected has to be continuously reCiewed oCer a period of ti e and then reCised dependin! on the objectiCes of the inCestor* The care taken in construction of portfolio should be e@tended to the reCiew and reCision of the portfolio* %luctuations that occur in the e"uity prices cause substantial !ain or loss to the inCestors* The inCestor should haCe co petence and skill in the reCision of the portfolio* The portfolio ana!e ent process needs fre"uent chan!es in the co position of stocks and bonds* .n securitiesE the type of securities to be held should be reCised accordin! to the portfolio policy* ,n inCestor purchases stock accordin! to his objectiCes and return risk fra ework* The prices of stock that he purchases fluctuateE each stock haCin! its
2>
.f an inCestor is able to forecast these chan!es by deCelopin! a fra ework for the future throu!h careful analysis of the behaCior and a position to the hi oCe ent of stock prices is in ethods are adopted to ake hi!her profit than if he was to si ply buy securities and hold
earn better profit throu!h proper ti in!* The inCestor uses for ula plans to help akin! decisions for the future by e@ploitin! the fluctuations in prices*
F&RM("A P"A)S/
The for ula plans proCide the basic rules and re!ulations for the purchase and sale of securities* The a ount to be spent on the different types of securities is fi@ed* The a ount plans are i* ii* iii* iC* ,Cera!e Rupee Plan Constant Rupee Plan Constant Ratio Plan 7ariable Ratio Plan ay be fi@ed either in constant or Cariable ratio* This depends only used for ula on the inCestorLs attitude towards risk and return* The co
A*,A)TA5ES/
?asic rules and re!ulations for the purchase and sale of securities are proCided*
4G
The rules and re!ulations are ri!id and help to oCerco e hu an e otion* The inCestor can earn hi!her profits by adoptin! the plans* , course of action is for ulated accordin! to the inCestorLs objectiCes* .t controls the buyin! and sellin! of securities by the inCestor* .t is useful for takin! decisions on the ti in! of inCest ents* *ISA*,A)TA5ES/ The for ula plan does not help the selection of the security* The selection of the security has to be done either on the basis of the funda ental or technical analysis* .t is strict and not fle@ible with the inherent proble of adjust ent*
The for ula plans should be applied for lon! periodsE otherwise the transaction cost ay be hi!h*
ECen if the inCestor adopts the for ula planE he needs forecastin!* +arket forecastin! helps hi to identify the best stocks*
A)A".SIS F I)TERPRETI&)
CALC(LATION OF AVERAGE RET(RN OF COMPANIES!
4)
,Cera!e Return
N $R&DN
ITC LTD! &2ening Closing s!are 2rice s!are 2rice 9PG: 9P7: 9>9*;G 90=*06 90=*06 )G42*)G )G42*)G )240*G6 )240*G6 0>20 )>6*)6 )6)*)6 T&TA" RET(R) ,Cera!e Return N )=G*;>D6 N 29*)9 9P7-PG:6 PGH7GG '>*=0 99*G2 0=*99 ))=*4; '00*66 7IG8JK
&2ening Closing s!are 2rice s!are 2rice 9PG: 9P7: )G>G*>6 >)9*2G >)9*2G >;4*26 >;4*26 ;2>*)6 ;2>*)6 )E40)*4G )E40)*4G )469*66 T&TA" RET(R)
ACC! &2ening Closing s!are 2rice s!are 2rice 9PG: 9P7: )62*4G )2=*6G )2=*6G 064*96 064*96 29G*66 29G*66 ;=0*0G ;=0*0G ;26*06 T&TA" RET(R) ,Cera!e Return N 009*=D6 N 46*29 9P7-PG:6 PGH7GG '>*; =2*=9 4)*6= ))9*>6 '9*GG BBL8I
)*ARAT *EAVY ELECTRICALS LTD! &2ening Closing s!are 2rice s!are 2rice 9PG: 9P7: )9>*GG 002*)6 002*)6 9G4*26 9G4*26 ;99*4G ;99*4G 004)*>6 004)*>6 009)*26 T&TA" RET(R) ,Cera!e Return N 402*G=D6 N =4*90
42
*ERO*ONDA A(TOMO)ILES LIMITED! &2ening Closing s!are 2rice s!are 2rice 9PG: 9P7: 22=*66 )==*0G )==*0G 4>G*9G 4>G*9G 64=*GG 64=*GG =>G*46 =>G*46 9==*;6 T&TA" RET(R) ,Cera!e Return N )9;*=0D6 N 22*69 9P7-PG:6 PGH7GG '44*4G )9G*9= ))*;G 90*6G '00*96 7LJ8IB
+IPRO! &2ening Closing s!are 2rice s!are 2rice 9PG: 9P7: )E;GG*9G )022*46 )E022*46 )29)*0G )E29)*0G 0EG)0 9;G*>6 66>*; 66>*;G 66>*4G T&TA" RET(R) ,Cera!e Return N )4*)2D6 N 0*=2 9P7-PG:6 PGH7GG '0;*4; )G*29 4;*=; ')9*6= 'G*G6 7M87N
44
DR. REDDY! .ear 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; Return A3g8 9R: Return 9R: ')9*GG )0*)> 9*22 )0*)> '04*)4 )0*)> >0*2G )0*)> 0E4; )0*)> T&TA" 7ariance N )Dn') $R'R&0 N )D6 $=E99)& N );20*0 3tandard (eCiation N 7ariance N );20*0N 4)*90 9R-R: '0=*)> '6*=9 '29*22 =G*)) '>*;0 9R-R:B ;>6 24 )20G 94)= >4 I4LL7
46
ACC! .ear 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; Return A3g8 9R: Return 9R: '>*; 46*29 =2*=9 46*29 4)*6= 46*29 ))9*>6 46*29 '9*GG 46*29 T&TA" 7ariance N )Dn') $R'R&0 N )D6 $)0E0>)& N 046= 3tandard (eCiation N 7ariance N 046= N 4>*6= 9R-R: '66*G9 2=*6 '2*;= ;)*6> '6)*29 9R-R:B 2G20 )4=0 )2*9> 6)06 092= 7B4BK7
+IPRO! .ear 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; Return A3g8 9R: Return 9R: '0;*4; 0*=2 )G*29 0*=2 4;*=; 0*=2 ')9*6= 0*=2 'G*G6 0*=2 T&TA" 7ariance N )Dn') $R'R&0 N )D6 $22==& N =4; 3tandard (eCiation N 7ariance N =4; N22*G>
49
)*EL! .ear 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; Return A3g8 9R: Return 9R: 20*G4 =4*90 );G*=2 =4*90 09*=) =4*90 )>0*62 =4*90 G*=; =4*90 T&TA" 7ariance N )Dn') $R'R&0 N )D6 $20)>=& N 944G 3tandard (eCiation N 7ariance N 944G N =G*06 9R-R: '60*6= =9*0) '6;*=) )G;*>) '=2*;6 9R-R:B 0;96 ;420 2240 ))946 ;G)4 NB47KI
*ERO *ONDA! .ear 0GG0'0GG2 0GG0'0GG2 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; Return A3g8 9R: Return 9R: '44*4G 22*69 )9G*9= 22*69 ))*;G 22*69 90*6G 22*69 '00*96 22*96 T&TA" 7ariance N )Dn') $R'R&0 N )D6 $09E;)6& N 6242 3tandard (eCiation N 7ariance N 6242 N ;2*G> 9R-R: ';;*>; )0;*)0 '0)*=9 0=*>4 '69*0) 9R-R:B 9G;> )9)9G 4;= =2= 2)9G BL4J7O
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )Dn $R,'R,&$R?'R?& Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b i. ACC ,RA) - ITC ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '66*G9 2=*6 '2*;= ;)*6> '6)*29 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '46*>= 0620 0>*=; ))4>*>> ';*6 0=*26 =0*2) 6=>0*6; '6=*;) 2G)6 T&TA" 7BL7J8K
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $)09);*>& N 0602*6= Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 4>*6; ; b N 6)*64 N 0602*6=D$4>*6;&$6)*64& N G*>= ii& ACC (RA) & WIPRO (RB) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '60*6= =9*0) '6;*=) )G;*>) '=2*;6 T&TA" 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': ';;*>; 4G>>*99 )0;*)0 )G>6>*G) '0)*=9 )092*;0 0=*>4 2)00*>) '69*0) 4;G;*6= BM7OB8II
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $04)60*==& N 4=2G*6; Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 09 ; b N 4)*90 N 4=2G*6;D$=G*06&$;2*G>& N G*=0
4=
iii. +IPRO ,RA) - DR REDDY ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '2G*0> ;*62 44*>= ')>*4) '0*== T&TA" CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $'026)*2)& N 4;G*09 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 09*GG ; b N 4)*90 N '4;G*09D$09*GG&$4)*90& N 'G*42 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '0=*)> =62*=; '6*=9 '44*)0 '29*22 ')924*)0 =G*)) ')664*>2 '>*;0 0;*>> -BNO78N7
".
9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '60*6= 04);*92 =9*0) '06;6*G> '6;*=) '422*6= )G;*>) ===0*G; '=2*;6 4>)9*>9 7MGJO87O
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $)4G;6*)6& N 0=)6*G2 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b
4>
". ACC ,RA) - )*EL ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '66*G9 2=*6 '2*; ;)*6> '6)*2 T&TA" 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '60*6= 0=>6*G6 =9*0) 22)>*G= '6;*=) 0)2*=> )G;*>) ;;06*0; '=2*;6 40>9*2; 7IMMK8LL
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $)=44>*99& N 29=>*>2 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 4>*6; ; b N =G*06 N )=44>*99D$4>*6;&$=G*06& N G*>0
2. Co$$elatio bet.ee ACC - ot/e$ Co0'a ie%! i. ACC ,RA) - *ERO*ONDA ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '66*G9 2=*6 '2*;= ;)*6> '6)*29 T&TA" 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': ';;*>; 40>2*G0 )0;*)0 4=>4*)0 '0)*=9 =0*92 0=*>4 0G;)*=) '69*0) 0==9*>6 7MBBI8ON
ii. ACC ,RA) - +IPRO ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '66*G9 2=*6 '2*;= ;)*6> '6)*29 T&TA" CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $649& N )G>*0 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 4>*6;; b N 09*GG
N )G>*0D$4>*6;&$09*GG& N G*G=
9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '2G*0> )99;*;; ;*62 0=>*>G 44*>= ');G*G0 ')>*4) ')2=>*69 '0*== )4;*>) OML
iii. ACC ,RA) - DR REDDY ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '66*G9 2=*6 '2*;= ;)*6> '6)*29 T&TA" 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '0=*)> 660*)4 '6*=9 '006*9) '29*22 )2;*22 =G*)) 6;26*G; '>*;0 4>>*0) JLKI87M
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $;9>=*)4& N )62>*92 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 4>*6; ; b N 4)*90
6)
N )62>*92D$4>*6;&$4)*90& N G*;4 i". ITC ,RA) - *ERO *ONDA ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '46*>= 0>*=; ';*6 =0*2) '6=*;) T&TA" 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': ';;*>; 26=6*G9 )0;*)0 2;>;*G; '0)*=9 )92*>6 0=*>4 02=0*G6 '69*0) 22GG*G= 7NBBI8B7
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $)200=*0)& N 0946*94 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 6)*64 ; b N ;2*G> N 0946*94D$6)*64&$;2*G>& N G*;G 1. Co$$elatio )et.ee DR REDDY - Ot/e$ Co0'a ie% i. ITC,RA) - +IPRO! .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 9RA-RA: ')9*G04 '09*6;4 '2*9=4 '24*;04 =)*GG9 T&TA" 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': ')G*=> );4*6G '49*>4 )E04;*2= '=*; 20*G6 '09*>= >29*=6 >2*62 ;E6;9*4> K4KLJ8BI
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6') $>>9;*0=& N 04>)*=0 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b
60
a N 49*;6 ; b N 64*4= N 04>)*=0D$49*;6&$64*4=& N G*>;= ii. DR. REDDY ,RA) - -ITC ,R)) .EAR 0GG0'0GG2 0GG2'0GG4 0GG4'0GG6 0GG6'0GG9 0GG9'0GG; 9RA-RA: '0=*)> '6*=9 '29*22 =G*)) '>*;0 T&TA" 9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '46*>= )0>9*); 0>*=; ');6*G2 ';*6 0;0*4; =0*2) 96>2*=6 '6=*;) 6;G*99 IOOI87B
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $=66=*)0& N );))*90 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 4)*90 ; b N 6)*64 N );))*90D$4)*90&$6)*64& N G*;>
i38
Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 4)*90 ; b N ;2*G> N )20G*29D$4)*90&$;2*G>& N G*42 2. Co$$elatio )et.ee *LL - Ot/e$ Co0'a ie%
9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '2G*0> 029)*;) ;*62 >6;*0) 46*G4 '>=4*6; ')>*4) '69)*;0 '0*== )9)*== 7KNM8O7
64
9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '60*6= )4=0*02 =9*0) '6G6*)> '6;*=) 0)GG*04 )G;*>) =944*9; '=2*;6 =)4*G6 7BONL
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $)>24*6)& N 2=9*>G Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N ;2*G>; b N 09*GG N 2=9*>GD$;2*G>&$09*GG& N G*0G ii. DR REDDY ,RA) - )*EL,R))
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $)0629& N 2=9*>G Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N 4)*90; b N =G*06 N 06G;*0D$4)*90&$=G*06& N G*>2
66
9R'-R': 9RA-RA: 9R'-R': '2G*0> )6>0*96 ;*62 94>*)9 46*G4 '09G2*;9 ')>*4) '0G>4*62 '0*== 04)*0 -BB7O8BI
CoCariance $CO7 ab& N )D6 $'00)6*0=& N '442*G6 Correlation Coefficient N CO7 abDaQ b a N =G*06; b N 09*GG N '442*G6D$=G*06&$09*GG& N 'G*0)
<b N ) # <a CA"C("ATI&) &F =EI5-TS &F ITC F &T-ER C&MPA)IES/ i* .TC$a& 5 <.PRO $b&
a N 6)*64
69
<a N
9>G 22=9
<a N
<a N
<a N
(49.57)0 P (51.54)0 # 0$G*>=&Q(49.57)Q(51.54) <a N )60 )G9 <a N)*42 <b N ) # <a <b N )')*42 N ' G*42
ii* ?HE/ $a& 5 HEROHON(, $b&
6)*64 A51.54'$G*>=Q49.57&B
<a N
<a N
622
0)92
<a N 0)>= )4;; <a N)*4> <b N ) # <a <b N )')*4> N 'G*4>
iC*
=G*06 A=G*06'$G*9=Q51.54&B
6>
(51.54)0 P (80.25)0 # 0$G*9=&Q(51.54)Q(80.25) <a N 290= 24;) <a N)*G4 <b N ) # <a <b N )')*G4 NG*G4
C* ,CC $a& 5 ?HE/ $b&
<a N 0;=) )6;; <a N)*;9 <b N ) # <a <b N )')*;9 N 'G*;9
CA"C("ATI&) &F =EI5-TS &F ACC F &T-ER C&MPA)IES/ iii* ,CC $a& 5 HEROHON(, $b&
9G
<a N 06)9 0)4= <a N)*); <b N ) # <a <b N )')*); N 'G*);
iC* ,CC$a& 5 <.PRO $b&
6;2 0>0;
<a N
<a N
0;G9 0;04
<a N
>90 >>>
90
<a N
<a N
2>26 2)90
CA"C("ATI&) &F P&RTF&"I& RIS< &F =IPR& F &T-ER C&MPA)IES/ i* <ipro $a& 5 .TC $b&H
=R 06G6
ii*
N 6G*G4
?HE/ $a& 5 HEROHON(, $b&H
RP
=R 69)2
N ;4*>)
94
iii*
=R 94;
iC*
N 06*42
.TC $a& 5 ?HE/ $b&H
=R 4424
C*
99*6=
=R 4;=9
N 9>*)=
.* Ci*
=R 0>44
Cii*
N 64*06
,CC $a& 5 <.PRO $b&H
=R )009
Ciii*
N 26*G)
,CC $a& 5 (R RE((- $b&H
a N 4>*6;
99
=R )>;0
i@*
N 44*4G
.TC $a& 5 HEROHON(, $b&H
=R 0>4>
..* @*
N 64*2G
C,/C1/,T.ON O% PORT%O/.O R.3: O% (R RE((- 5 OTHER CO+P,N.E3 (RRE((- $a& 5 .TC $b&H
9;
RP N
$)D2&0$4)*90&0P$0D2)0$6)*64&0P0$4)*90&(51.54)Q(0.79)Q$0D2&Q$)D2&
=R 0)26
@i*
N 49*0
(RRE((- $a& 5 HEROHON(, $b&H
RP N
$)D2&0$4)*90&0P$0D2)0$;2*G>&0P0$4)*90&(73.09)Q(0.43)Q$0D2&Q$)D2&
=R 2);0
@ii*
N 69*20
(RRE((- $a& 5 ?HE/ $b&H
=R 4)>;
III8 @iii*
N 94*;=
CA"C("ATI&) &F P&RTF&"I& RIS< &F ITC F &T-ER C&MPA)IES .TC $a& 5 <.PRO $b&H
a N 6)*64
9=
RP N
$0D2&0$6)*64&0P$)D2)0$09*GG&0P0$6)*64&(26.00)Q(26.00)Q$0D2&Q$)D2&
=R )0=)
@iC*
N 26*;>
HEROHON(, $a& 5 <.PRO $b&H
RP N
$0D2&0$;2*G>&0P$)D2)0$09*GG&0P0$;2*G>&(26.00)Q(0.20)Q$G*9;&Q$G*22&
=R 0949 N 6)*44
.7*
RP N
$0D2&0$=G*06&0P$)D2)0$09*GG&0P0$=G*06&(26.00)Q(0.21)Q$0D2&Q$)D2&
=R 0;;=
N 60
CONCL(SION
%or any inCest ent the factors to be considered are the return on the inCest ent and the risk associated with that inCest ent* (iCersification in the inCest ent into different assets can reduce the risk* There fore by followin! odern portfolio theore E risk can be reduced for a re"uired return
;G
)I)ILOGRAP*Y
4.SEC(RITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 5(onald*E*%isherE Ronald*J*Jordan 2.INVESTMENTS '<illia *%*3harpeE!ordonEJ ,le@ander and Jeffery*7*?aily 2*PORTFOLIOMANAGEMENT '3tron! R*,
;)
+E) REFERENCES
;0