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PRESENTS

WEATHER
WHAT WE CAN AND CANT DO ABOUT IT
SPRING 2000 VOLUME 11 NUMBER 1

INTRODUCTION

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Cover photograph by WM L. Wantland/Striking Images

OUR NATIONAL PASSION


Keay Davidson A fan of all things meteorological contemplates the mania for tornado chasing and weather-as-entertainment.

THE PERILS OF PREDICTION


FORECASTING IS NO PICNIC
Richard Monastersky A look behind the scenes at how and why a weather report changes so much.

UNSETTLED SKIES

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BILLION-DOLLAR TWISTER
Robert Henson The Oklahoma City tornado on May 3, 1999, set a record for destructiveness. Plus: What Would Auntie Em Do?

DECODING THE FORECAST


Eugene Raikhel From cold front to degree days, this guide deciphers the often abstruse terminology of newspaper and broadcast reports.

EXTREME WEATHER
Eugene Raikhel A world map locates the hottest, coldest, driest and wettest events.

THE BUTTERFLY THAT ROARED


Jeffrey Rosenfeld Chaos bedevils meteorological computer models. Thats why even the best ones cant reliably predict more than 14 days ahead.

FLEEING FLOYD
Jim Reed Well-crafted civil defense contingency plans couldnt cope with traffic in the largest U.S. mass evacuation ever. Plus: Answers Blowing in the Wind

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DO WE NEED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE?


Jeffrey Rosenfeld Private weather services want the government to drop most of its forecasting duties, but the public sector still has a vital role.

BIG SKY, HOT NIGHTS, RED SPRITES


Karen Wright A meteorologist without a government or academic affiliation does world-class research on bizarre lightning in his backyard.

ITS RAINING EELS: A COMPENDIUM OF WEIRD WEATHER


Randy Cerveny A turtle in a hailstone? Under the right conditions, what comes down from the sky may be a lot more than just frozen H2O.
Copyright 2000 Scientific American, Inc.

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TEMPESTS FROM THE SUN


Tim Beardsley Solar storms can endanger satellites and even power grids here on Earth. Plus: Chasing Extraterrestrial Storms by Tracy Staedter

DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT


CLOUD DANCERS
Daniel Pendick More than 50 years of artificial rainmaking efforts have failed to prove that the techniques actually work.

ATMOSPHERE AS SPECTACLE

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LIGHTS, CAMERA, WEATHER


Randy Cerveny Hollywood uses artifice to simulate realistic-looking rain, wind and snow.

WEATHERPROOFING AIR TRAVEL


Phil Scott Nervous fliers can take solace from new technologies that alert pilots to imminent hazards, from turbulence to wing icing.

CHANNELING THE WEATHER


Steve Mirsky Being a weatherman aint easy.

FURTHER INFORMATION
WEATHER ON THE WEB
Diane Martindale Sites offering more on the featured topics.

CLIMATE IN FLUX
BEYOND EL NIO
Laurence Lippsett El Nio turns out to be but one of several oceanic and atmospheric cycles that affect weather around the globe.

WARMING TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Kathryn S. Brown Midwestern farmers and native Alaskans alike are trying to figure out what to do about global warming. Plus: Life in a Hotter World

UNDER THE WEATHER


Rita Baron-Faust Weather and climate can have a profound effect on patterns of health and disease. Plus: Todays Forecast: Increased Cold and Heart Attacks

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Scientic American Presents (ISSN 1048-0943), Volume 11, Number 1, Spring 2000, published quarterly by Scientic American, Inc., 415 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017-1111. Copyright 2000 by Scientic American, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this issue may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic or electronic process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise copied for public or private use without written permission of the publisher. Periodicals Publication Rate. Postage paid at New York, N.Y., and at additional mailing ofces. Canadian BN No. 127387652RT; QST No. Q1015332537. Subscription rates: one year $19.80 (outside U.S. $23.80). To purchase additional quantities: 1 to 9 copies: U.S. $5.95 each plus $2.00 per copy for postage and handling (outside U.S. $5.00 P&H); 10 to 49 copies: U.S. $5.35 each, postpaid; 50 copies or more: U.S. $4.75 each, postpaid. Send payment to Scientic American, Dept. SAQ, 415 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017-1111. Postmaster: Send address changes to Scientic American Presents, Box 5063, Harlan, IA 51593. Subscription inquiries: U.S. and Canada (800) 333-1199; other (515) 247-7631.

Copyright 2000 Scientific American, Inc.

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